Richard Whalen

Strategists for Senator Hillary Clinton have looked at the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio, and the April 22d primary in Pennsylvania, as the ultimate “firewall” for her against Senator Barack Obama. Right now, polls show her one-time lead in Texas eroding although the most recent surveys still have her ahead in the other two states. In the Expectation Game, she’s expected to win at least two out of three.

And, of course, if she doesn’t, there’s always the superdelegates. At this point, the spinners in Hillary’s camp begin to sound as sincerely desperate as they are.

Far away from the buzz, a distinguished retired U.S. Senator and lifelong Democrat puts the razor-close race in perspective: “Obama’s winning the states that the Republicans will carry. Hillary’s winning the states that the Democrats will carry. If the election were held today, she could win. But if the election is held after March 4th, and after Obama beats her two out of three, he’ll win” adding “Obama’s got the Big Mo.”

This former Senator has no illusions about the “transcendent” Obama who has entranced so many white liberals. “Obama is a product of the Chicago Daley Machine and the big Ag multinational companies and the Chicago Board of Trade. This is the first time he’s run for president, he’s raised plenty of money and he thinks it’s all so easy. He’s arrogant,” the Senator says.

He predicts that the Clintons will use their longtime allies among the party’s 796 superdelegates – who are current and former officials, party leaders and activists – to offset the delegates Obama wins in elections and caucuses. He thinks and I agree, that it will go all the way to the convention, and it could be ugly.

The “superdelegate” rule was instituted after the 1980 election, when some Democrats believed that the role of party leaders and active elected officials had been unduly diminished. They wanted to strengthen the Democratic ticket.

At the 2008 Democratic National Convention, the almost 800 superdelegates will make up approximately one-fifth of the total number of delegates. They are not selected based on any primaries or caucuses in each state, but are seated automatically, based solely on their status and current or former party positions. They are unpledged and free to support any candidate for the nomination.

New Mexico’s Governor Bill Richardson, one of the ranking Hispanics in the Party thinks a superdelegate’s vote “should reflect the vote of my state, the vote of my constituency. It shouldn’t be because you’re a fundraiser or a big shot…. If superdelegates decide this nomination, it’s going to look like big-shot politicians and fat-cats decided who would be president.”

Indeed it will. Because the Clinton-Obama contest is so close, the very existence of superdelegates will complicate the outcome and leave the Party bitterly divided.