Richard Whalen

Populist John Edwards’s sudden withdrawal as a Democratic presidential candidate seemed to catch even his staff by surprise, reports The Wall Street Journal. As late as last week, he had insisted that he would stay in the race right up to the nominating convention in August.

Edwards spoke passionately about poverty: “…I say to all those who are struggling in this country, we will never forget you, we will fight for you….the time has come to make the two Americas one.”

And the Democrats have reason to expect a major victory in the November 2008 election. As the economy slides into recession, Professor Ray C. Fair, the well-known Yale economist whose widely quoted forecasting model has proved accurate, predicts a whopping 55 percent to 45 percent Democratic victory, giving the Democrats the presidency and control of both chambers of Congress.

The fact that Edwards did not immediately endorse either Clinton or Obama has fueled speculation that he does not want to antagonize either candidate and jeopardize his chances of being picked for the vice presidential slot.

Who benefits from Edward’s withdrawal? Some political pundits are in agreement that Edward’s delegates will be evenly divided between Clinton and Obama. Others such as David Gergen tell CNN that Barack Obama will pick up maybe 60 percent of them and in some states that will make a big difference. But most agree that the candidate who talks about poverty, the economy and health care – the major concerns of the middle class – will get Edwards’ supporters.

The Bush Administration has failed to recognize the painful plight of the middle class as median household incomes have remained stagnant since 2001 and their rising fear of inflation as an array of service costs soar. At the same time, the two-year deflation of housing prices threatens the very foundation of middle class financial security. Bush’s economic stimulus plan is too little and too late.

The timing of Edwards’ decision is poignant. If the economy had turned so dramatically weak six months ago, Edwards’ message would have had greater impact on voters and, even more, the media.

Two years ago, the media decided what the 2008 election was “about” – the novelty of a pair of “firsts” – the first woman candidate and the first African-American candidate on a national ticket. They concentrated on the “firsts” and ignored Edwards’ urgent messages of income inequality, disparity and injustice. Now, as the economic recession and the credit crunch deepen, Edwards’ economic issues will dominate the electoral battleground.

Every candidate sets an unspoken personal limit on his emotional and financial resources. For Edwards, a native South Carolinian, this son of a mill worker had to win there if he was going to win anywhere.

He said that he and his wife Elizabeth, who has cancer, spoke at length and made the decision together to withdraw. I have only respect and admiration for their courage, strength and patriotism.