Richard Whalen

Even before the recession of 2008 is officially recognized, Andy Kohut of Pew Research and others find that consumer confidence has plunged and satisfaction with the economy and its prospects has hit a 15-year low. This is a powerful anti-Republican force building up in the electorate ahead of the November Congressional races.

Even older, wealthier citizens think America is “on the wrong track” by a large majority. This “track” question is used by pollsters to orient a respondent generally rather than according to specific issues. A big majority for “wrong track” indicates to pollsters a deep dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration and Congressional Republicans among self-identified “conservatives.” When the “wrong track” majority tops 60 percent, the GOP is in danger of losing part of its base.

The biggest change: many Republicans have lost their former confidence in “Bush’s war” – now opposed by two-thirds of poll respondents. If Bush had confronted these attitudes at such current intensity levels during the 2004 election, he would have been defeated by Senator John Kerry.

The 2008 recession will provide the crucial backdrop for the November election. The Iraq war’s costs will be seen as “a trillion-dollar tax” on the U.S. economy, denying voters many other desirable programs. Any anti-recession stimulus package Congress enacts is not likely to influence the election. Congress will become more Democratic in both chambers, especially in the Senate, where the GOP must defend 21 seats to the Democrats dozen. A net Democratic gain of 4 to 6 Senate seats would put them within reach of the 60-vote super-majority needed to cut off debate and control every aspect of the future administration.

An election-year recession is a rarity – and a downturn that would end George W. Bush’s presidency at the same kind of 1991-92 low point that George H.W. Bush suffered - is a grand irony and poetic justice. It will be as though the worst presidency in modern U.S. history had never happened, and that the Bush Dynasty, marked by needless war, death, slump and suffering had been a bad dream.

The all-purpose Federal Reserve medicine of reducing short-term interest rates will not help those who are in trouble because of overvalued assets, excessive debts, unaffordable mortgages and other investment mistakes. A broad, quick tax cut targeted to the middle-classes might help the weakening economy find its feet and rally, but the basic problem goes much deeper.

Dollar-smart Mayor Michael Bloomberg summed it up last evening as reported in The New York Post: “What good is a rebate going to do for a family about to lose their home? It’s shortsighted to allow whole neighborhoods to fall victim to this because when neighborhoods empty out, crime and drugs and violence rush in.”

Amen.