America is an inherently conservative country and a center-right coalition of Republicans, Reagan Democrats and like-minded Independents can attract more than 50 percent of the popular vote and a winning majority of 350 to 400 electoral votes in 2008.
Here are the elements of GOP victory:
- Focus on the Economy
Economic growth far outweighs every other issue and concern of the broad mid-section of American voters. The slowing economy, rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence are causing growing fears of a recession.
Republicans need to concentrate on the collapse of the housing sector and loss of home equity value – the only “savings” most Americans have – that has created profound anxiety. “The economic mood is grimmer than it has been since 1992, as the last recession bottomed,” says Andrew Kohut, President of the Pew Research Center.
Republicans must propose middle-class tax cuts, to be paid for by cutting non-essential spending and wasteful “earmarks” in the FY 2008 budget to kick-start the sluggish economy.
Economic conditions and prospects for sustained improvement and growth are the crucial elements of the Republican’s message.
- Concentrate on America’s Mid-Section
Republicans should heed Nixon, the master-strategist, who repeatedly insisted that no Republican can be elected president without carrying Ohio – and all the places like it. Ohio, with its mix of industry, cities and farming, is truly America in miniature.
Republicans need to advocate a new America First program for the 21st century to revitalize and rebuild thousands of urgently needed infrastructures throughout the United States – aging bridges, tunnels, docks, waterways and roads.
- Regain Support Among Hispanics
Bush won 40 percent of Hispanics in 2004, but this fell off sharply in the 2006 mid-term elections. Hispanics were alienated by the immigration bill. That was a mistake. Republicans can recapture 25-30 percent of the Hispanic vote by promising to restore a legal pathway to citizenship for illegals and at the same time enforce the security of the U.S. border.
- Dealing with Iraq
Republicans must emphasize the importance of a renewed U.S. long-term commitment to non-interventionism in the Mideast and elsewhere. This will lead to the rationale for an enormous shift of resources to domestic needs under state and local economic development authority.
Without mentioning Bush or the troop “surge” (now complete), Republicans must assure the electorate that the U.S. can retire from Iraq with honor in late 2008 and 2009. They must emphasize the long Republican tradition of non-interventionism (not “isolation”) and the positive changes to expect in a post-Iraq era -- no more casualties, savings of at least $150 billion annually for domestic priorities and a new balance in the Mideast. Republicans must also urge a continued dialogue with Iran at the ambassadorial level concerning mutual interests in the region and peaceful resolution of differences. A Republican candidate would demand that Iran cease support for terrorism and have a commitment to stability.
- Turnout Spells Victory
Republicans can not only hold the presidency in 2008 but could also recapture the Senate by emphasizing their middle-class agenda. In 2004, Bush won re-election because of the huge GOP turnout effort led by an army of volunteers, mostly women. The key to their participation in 2008 will be their rising dissatisfaction with Hillary Rodham Clinton as the “first” (therefore exemplary) woman president.
In any event, 2008 is anything but a “give up” year for the GOP.
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Comments
It seems that Republicans can win by repudiating themselves.
Focus on the Economy:
1) Republican intentional unregulation of the lending industry
2) Republican tax cuts for the rich
3) Republican borrow and spend policies ('Republicans paying for tax cuts???')
4) stagnant real lower and middle class incomes with exploding real upper class incomes
5) yes, do indeed focus on the present/coming recession
Concentrate on America’s Mid-Section:
1) didn't Ohio's voters just express their hatered of their Republican leadership? I think Ohio will need more than just 2 years to forget the corruption and incompetence.
2) How does new spending on infrastructure balance with paying for tax cuts Richard?
Regain Support Among Hispanics:
1) Better tell the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination who are throwing anti-immigrant red meat to the party faithful!
2) And just like the voters in Ohio, you think Hispanics will forget what they learned just 2 years ago?
Dealing with Iraq:
1) The "Surge" isn't complete until the troop draw down is finished. And that is happening on schedule regardless of the results on the ground. The military can't support anything more than a temporary Surge and that was the plan from the start. The Surge was only executed to give the Iraqi government breathing room to enact political reconciliation. And there is no political reconciliation, so the civil war is just paused, not ended.
2) Better tell the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination that we really don't want to "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran...". And while you're at it, tell Bush and Cheney also.
Turnout Spells Victory:
1) I notice that Republicans can only win if Republican core turn out is accomplished. What you don't say is that Democrats and Independents have to saty home at the same time. Fat chance during a Presidential year.
2) Republicans work themselves up by demoninzing the enemy. And right now the fractured Republican Presidential field is demonizing each other. Do you really thing that the Republican primary voters will contribute, let alone vote for a Republican "Demon"?
2006 was the start of another 40 years in the wilderness for thw Republican Party. Dead man walking!
Posted by: Greg | December 31, 2007 6:24 PM
Let's see now. First you take away earmarks then you earmark for roads and bridges etc. As you placate the Hispanics you alienate your base opposed to illegal immigration. We've seen this shell game before. Voodoo economics are still with us. Rots of ruck. Fool me twice...shame on, um...won't get fooled again.
Posted by: gevan | January 1, 2008 1:44 AM
Such wishful thinking underlies the coming debacle for Republicans in 2008. America is not inherently conservative, it is inherently moderate. As Democratic registration / affiliation passes the 50% mark, Republican registration / affiliation is hovering around 31%. On substantial issues, moderates / independents are siding with Democrats. The continuing resignations of moderate Republicans from Congress is an indicator. They know what is coming in November and they want out.
Whatever list of issues you choose, the thread permeating all of it is Republican incompetence: the abandonment of Central Asia in the war on terror, and of the middle class on key issues like health care, taxes, health care, immigration, health care, American jobs, health care, housing, disaster response, and health care. Your list is missing a major, key issue, indicating that you are not hearing middle Americans.
Last, Republicans cannot seem to let go of the Rovian politics of fear and smear, and the comic book conversations of talk radio. Voters are looking for hope and credibility on issues. Republicans do not have the package voters want.
Posted by: Polarbear
| January 1, 2008 1:24 PM
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