If you are looking to get scientific about some of the credentials of the candidates mentioned as possible running-mates for Barack Obama or John McCain, check out FiveThirtyEight.com and its "Contenders by the Numbers" post. Since most of those mentioned are sitting governors or senators, there are polls in their states on their job approval ratings which shed some light on their political appeal.

By that measure, FiveThirtyEight singled out three Democrats Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer - as officeholders who have solidly positive numbers in traditionally red states. Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden do fine but much-mentioned-of-late Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd performed more marginally.

Not a great day for burnishing Mitt Romney's credentials to be John McCain's running mate, at least according to the prognosticators who rolled out some of his downsides.

Say John McCain taps former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as his running mate and then, during the campaign, goes hammer-and-tong after Barack Obama over Obama's health care plan. One small problem, notes the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire: Obama modeled his health plan on the one Romney signed into law in Massachusetts. In both plans, private health insurers offer bids and the best ones are accepted by government and, in addition, the government subsidizes low-income families so they can afford policies. The Journal quotes one expert as saying, "The Obama health plan is a virtual clone of the Massachusetts health law."

The Washington Times says top evangelical leaders have declared that their flocks will desert the Republican ticket if Romney is on it. They say they don't trust Romney on issues like same-sex marriage, abortion and also because he is a Mormon. The Times quoted the Rev. Rob McCoy as saying, "It will alienate the entire evangelical community - 62 million self-professing evangelicals in this country, half of them registered to vote."

Everyone has been weighing in with their lists handicapping the pro's and con's of potential running-mates. Here's the offering from our friends at Electoral-Vote.com on potential McCain partners.

 

Veep Candidate	Job	Downside
Charlie Crist	Gov. of Florida	Can he make decisions? (He is now engaged for the fifth time)
Carly Fiorina	ex-HP CEO	Nearly ran HP into the ground, fired by the board, given $40 million severance pay
Bobby Jindal	Gov. of Louisiana	Performs amateur exorcisms; late-night comics would go wild
Mike Huckabee	ex-Gov. of Arkansas	McCain thinks he's crazy
Kay Hutchison	Sen. from. Texas	Might not play well with working-class men
Sarah Palin	Gov. of Alaska	Under investigation for possibly breaking the law trying to fire her brother in law
Tim Pawlenty	Gov. of Minnesota	Unknown nationally and Dems will win Minnesota even with him on the ticket
Rob Portman	ex-OMB Director	Like the economy? Good. Hire Bush's budget director for a repeat performance
Tom Ridge	ex Gov. of Pennsylvania	Pro choice, which will infuriate the Base
Mitt Romney	ex-Gov. of Mass.	Flip-flops are all over You Tube; antiMormon bigotry is widespread in the South
Mark Sanford	Gov. of South Carolina	Unknown outside his state
John Thune	Sen. from South Dakota	Only three years in the Senate and unknown outside his state

Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, who accompanied Barack Obama on his tour of Iraq and Afghanistan is the latest to remove himself from the list of Vice Presidential mentionables. He told the Providence Journal that "I am interested in serving in the United States Senate and that interest trumps any consideration of serving as a vice president.'' Asked if that meant he would decline if Obama offered, Reed said, "Yeah, but I frankly I don't expect to be offered the position.'' Yesterday, on the Republican side, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said he intended to remain in the state house.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty may be near the top of the McCain list as many have speculated, but his home state paper, the Minneapolis Star Tribune, didn't do much today to bolster what advantage he might bring. Democrats have carried the state in the last five presidential elections, but the fact that the margin of victory has been 3.5 points or less in 2004 and 2000 has fueled Republican hopes. Would choosing Pawlenty increase the odds of the GOP breaking through. The Star Tribune says "Research shows that a vice-presidential pick provides virtually no advantage in the candidate's home state." The paper goes on to say, "Although most presidential tickets during the past half-century have been regionally balanced, researchers found almost no evidence that the vice-presidential candidate increased the ticket's margin in his own state. A 1989 study found that, on average, vice-presidential candidates improved their ticket's performance in their own state by 0.3 percentage points, compared to previous elections."

We can't provide a link to this because the Wall Street Journal is a paid subscriber-only site, but it reports today that Obama has narowed his focus to Senators Joseph Biden, Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton and Jack Reed, and Governors Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. (So, we'll see how true to his word Reed is if asked). McCain's short list is said to be ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Pawlenty, and former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman. The Journal says Republicans "also are touting " South Dakota Sen. John Thune, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and campaign adviser Carly Fiorina among others.

Much chatter today about the timing of John McCain's decision on a running mate. The Washington Post says the magic moment is likely after Barack Obama returns from Europe on Sunday and, most importantly, before the Beijing Olympics start Aug. 8 McCain aides are worried about the blanket Obama coverage lately that has eclipsed McCain and competing with the news from China once the Olympics start. CNN says McCain has not settled on a Number Two or the timing of his decision, even though top adviser Charlie Black says enough vetting has been done so far that McCain could make that decision whenever he wants. CNN's source said that McCain is just as likely to make his announcement at the end of the month as at the beginning.

If there was one common theme in the vice-presidential chatter in the last day, it was the sound of talked-about candidates saying they weren't in the running. Take Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, for instance. Chris Cilliza, who writes the political blog The Fix for the Washington Post, said Monday that John McCain would meet with Jindal later this week during a trip to New Orleans. That fueled some Jindal speculation because Louisiana does not quite fit in the definition of "battleground states' which McCain will be touring.

But KTBS-TV in Shreveport quoted Jindal, who was conducting a town hall meeting in Homer, La., as saying: "I'm not gonna be vice-president. I have no interest in that. I want to be governor of Louisiana."

Then take Carly Fiorina, the former chief exec of Hewlett-Packard and a top economic adviser to McCain. Asked at a Grand Rapids, Mich. luncheon if she'd accept an offer, she answered, "I'm not running for office. I'm not looking for anything out of this, other than to get this man elected president." OK., maybe not a categorical "no."

David Gregory took a crack at the question with Rudy Giuliani on the "Today" show this morning, which drew this answer: " I am not on the short list. I don't want to be on that short list..."

Then there is the truly safe haven of saying you are just not going to talk about it, which Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty did when Fox News' Jane Skinner pressed him on the Number Two spot. "I'm just not going to engage in the speculation any further," he said. "But, again, you're nice to ask about it."

Which brings us around to Robert Novak whose internet posting Monday night caused a stir when he said a senior McCain aide told him that the presumed Republican nominee might announce his choice this week, something that would get McCain back in the spotlight during Barack Obama's heavily-covered trip abroad. The rumor may have had some plausibility simply because so many candidates seemed to be ruling themselves out.

But Novak said on Fox News today (Huffington Post has the video) that he thinks he just got taken. "I since have been told by certain people that this was a dodge, trying to get a little publicity to rain on Obama's campaign," he said. "That's pretty reprehensible if it's true. But we'll find out in a few days."

Today's the anniversary of one moment in the history of the Vice-Presidency. One year ago, President Bush temporarily transferred his powers to Vice President Dick Cheney under the 25th amendment because he was undergoing anaesthesia for a colonoscopy.

Jonah Goldberg, editor-at-large for the National Review Online, says in the Los Angeles Times that while Barack Obama needs a runningmate who only has to do three things for him (appeal to centrists and moderates, bolster his foreign policy weka spot and not turn off the Democratic base), McCain needs a running mate who can do about a dozen things (reassure evangelicals, appeal to swing voters, attract women and the list goes on...) Goldberg provides a chart with 15 potential candidates and to whom they appeal, who they alienate, what their risk factor is and Goldberg's own bottom line assessment.

Patrick Ruffini, blogging at The Next Right, wonders why Romney would want to VP () given the track record of former VPs in Presidential elections.

Al Gore tried to put an end to the VP Buzz that's been surrounding him this year yesterday in an interview on CBS News. Gore said that "I have a personal term limit. Only two terms as VP."

MSNBC speculates () that Obama is holding secret meetings in his gym, and provides background on when VPs are typically announced.

Lee Bandy of the South Carolina Insider writes that Gov. Mark Sanford probably killed any chance he had to be John McCain's running mate when he performed poorly in a CNN interview last Sunday. When asked how McCain would be able to draw distinctions during the campaign between himself and President Bush on the economy, Sanford said, "I'm drawing a blank, um, I hate it when I do that, particularly on television,"

Barack Obama, courting former Hillary Clinton donors, told one that Clinton is on his list of potential running mates but that there is one problem he has to think through, namely, Bill Clinton, according to the Los Angeles Times. Obama had got in touch with Jill Iscol because he had heard she was unhappy with the way the party had been treating Clinton. She told him that Clinton would be his best running mate, and he said that the former President was a "complication." Iscol quoted Obama: "He said once you're a president, even if you're a former president, you're always a president."

Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post offered his "top five" short list predictions for VP. On the Republican side, he picked South Dakota Sen. John Thune, Louisian Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania governor and Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and former Massuchusetts governor Mitt Romney. For the Democrats, he listed Clinton, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (see CQ Politics' own report on her), Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.

The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire says there's "buzz" that Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska might join Barack Obama on his trip to Iraq. Hagel, who was a fierce critic of Iraq war policy, has been among the "mentioned" as Obama searches for a running mate.

The Pensacola News Journal reports that while Florida Gov. Charlie Crist continues to play coy about any Vice Presidential aspirations, he has been stumping around the country for John McCain and his "stunning announcement" several weeks ago that he supported McCain's call to end the federal moratorium on offshore drilling was a sign to many of his interest. Crist political adviser George LeMieux told the News Journal, "I like the fact that they are talking about him. His style of governing is consistent with McCain's."

Politico says that presumed wannabes for the No. 2 slot have been primping in various ways to make themselves more attractive. It noted moves small and big ranging from Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's switch from his "hockey hair" style to a close-cropped cut, as well as Crist's turnabout on offshore drilling.