The VP Prospects "By the Numbers"

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If you are looking to get scientific about some of the credentials of the candidates mentioned as possible running-mates for Barack Obama or John McCain, check out FiveThirtyEight.com and its "Contenders by the Numbers" post. Since most of those mentioned are sitting governors or senators, there are polls in their states on their job approval ratings which shed some light on their political appeal.

By that measure, FiveThirtyEight singled out three Democrats Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer - as officeholders who have solidly positive numbers in traditionally red states. Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden do fine but much-mentioned-of-late Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd performed more marginally.

On the Republican side, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin does OK, while the rest of the field are bunched together with the exception of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who left office with a strong approval rating.

The Denver Post today touts Romney as the candidate that "political experts say ... would energize fundraising and generate the most enthusiasm in the Rocky Mountain West." It noted that Romney beat McCain in five western primaries.

As for Romney himself, he told radio station KOA in Denver that while he would not decline an offer to be McCain's running mate, "I intend to be campaigning for the McCain team. I don't expect to be a part of it."

The boomlet in speculation about Virginia's Kaine in recent days drew a list of pro's and con's from ubiquitous political analyst Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The pro's are personal chemistry with Obama, his strength on domestic issues important to voters, his status as a Washington outsider (at least, as far outside as you can get when you live in Virginia), and special qualities like his Roman Catholicism and luency in Spanish. Con's are lack of experience where it is most needed (foreign policy), the calculation that Obama should woo former backers of Hillary Clinton by picking someone who supported her, mixed record as governor, and the fact that he would be succeeded by a conservative Republican lieutenant governor.

Time Magazine touches some of the same points as Sabato regarding Kaine and puts it into the context of Obama having to make a decision on which is best for his candidacy: a new voice that will signal his commitment to change, or a trusted senior hand who can make up for his lack of experience in general and foreign policy in particular. Time puts Kaine in the first category and names like Sens. Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd in the second, with someone like Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh somewhere in between.

There's been much public musing lately about what the best timing is for announcing a running mate, given the impending competition for attention with the Olympics starting Aug. 8. Last week's hot rumor was that McCain would announce before that date. The Boston Globe sampled some experts and analysts on that question. Noting that the candidate who has the later convention gets the later bounce in the polls, presidential historian Richard Norton Smith of George Mason University said, "Why surrender that shot of presumably favorable coverage when you are running close, or in some polls, ahead?" The Globe said it was Obama, not McCain, who might benefit more from a pre-Olympic announcement.

Never Give Up Department: Talk of Hillary Clinton as Obama's running mate seems to have faded, but one of her strongest supporters in the fight for the nomination, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" that "I certainly think she should still be in the hunt. I think she has the qualifications to be president, and I think she would be very strong as a campaigner. So you're doing the two things that need to be done to be qualified."

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