Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter
Now on Video Trail Mix: The Democratic victory in a Mississippi congressional special election on Tuesday is good news for the party, but not necessarily for Barack Obama.
(Click PLAY VIDEO in screen)
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Obama on Friday seemed to accept an idea first proposed by McCain for freestyle debates before the party conventions. "If John McCain wants to meet me anywhere, any time to have a debate about our respective policies ... that is a conversation I am happy to have."
Even though Obama made it sound as though he was the one issuing the challenge, McCain has already said he wants pre-convention forums or un-moderated debates. Obama's words in his South Dakota speech on Friday could serve as an apparent acceptance of the presumed Republican nominee's recent proposal for face-to-face sessions.
Originally, Obama had only indicated that he would consider McCain's idea, perhaps out of deference to Clinton. But Obama appears more willing now that he plans to claim victory in the Democratic nomination battle after next week's primaries in Oregon and Kentucky.
Coming Tomorrow: Trail Mix "Summer of Love"
Two of our most fierce supporters of Clinton and Obama (Jamie and Brian) each tell us what they like most about the other's candidate.
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Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter
Now on Video Trail Mix: The Democratic victory in a Mississippi congressional special election on Tuesday is good news for the party, but not necessarily for Barack Obama.
(Click PLAY VIDEO in screen)
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Edwards has spent more time among Appalachian voters than anyone in this presidential campaign. His poverty tours and tireless championing for working-class voters in the region might encourage those voters to listen to Edwards if he goes on the road in Kentucky.
Proving strength among voters who are not warming to Obama could give Edwards a shot at running mate, or at least indicate how he can be best used in a general election campaign.
Obama does not need to win Kentucky on May 20 to go forward with his plans to use an expected Oregon win on the same day to officially claim victory in the Democratic race. But a stunner in Kentucky like his 41-point loss in West Virginia would be most unwelcome -- and Edwards could at least help narrow the margin.
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Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Thursday (5/15) 6:30 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM / WJZW-FM
Round Three Pairings in
VP Madness (GOP Edition):
Round Three voting is open until tomorrow, May 15 (Round Four begins Friday, May 16). Democratic version coming once a party nominee is set.
Watch Craig's Video Tour of VP Madness.
Craig on "Verdict with Dan Abrams"
Tonight (5/14) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST
. . . and on "Imus in the Morning"
Thursday (5/15) 6:30 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM / WJZW-FM
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Edited by CQ's Andrew Satter
("Fabulous Moolah" provided by Barbara B.)
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This is not the first time that the Democratic Party’s liberal base has placed a sizable bet -- that the country has changed to its benefit. This has been the essential presumption of liberal Democratic strategy since George McGovern’s ridiculous campaign in 1972.
Thirty-six years later -- and many losses in between -- Democrats find in Barack Obama the next big play to move the nation leftward.
West Virginia voters showed tonight that they are not changing. And yet, the Clintons, who happen to be the only Democrats alive who twice won the White House, are getting the boot from their own party.
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The Trail Less Traveled was in Morgantown, W. Va., where locals are excited to vote in today's Democratic primary despite the fact that many political experts say the outcome won't matter.
(Jonathan Allen and Andrew Satter, CQ Politics)
VIDEO INTERVIEW: Clinton Stronger Than Obama in W. Va. General Election
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The answer is obvious -- he can win Oregon on May 20, but seems to have no chance for victory tomorrow in West Virginia. Obama clearly has no plans to cede Oregon in order to allow Clinton a graceful exit, nor should he.
But Obama began and ended his Mountain State campaign with today’s rally in Charleston. You would think someone on the verge of clinching his party's presidential nod would want to make more of an effort in a state won by every successful Democratic nominee since 1916.
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When the Democratic National Committee’s rules panelists meet on May 31 to hear advocates for the renegade states they would probably rather do nothing in hopes that once Barack Obama gathers the winning majority he will seat the contested delegates and end the matter.
But doing nothing helps Clinton the most -- if she wants to keep the party nomination in official limbo until the convention.
Even giving Clinton everything she claims to want would not help her as much. Seating her majority of delegates from both states would still not put her ahead. Counting Florida and Michigan in popular vote evaluations and adjusting upward the number of delegates required to clinch the party nod also would not close the gap for Clinton.
For Clinton, in this case doubt trumps certainty.
]]>Craig on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Today (5/12) 6:30 AM ET
MSNBC Message Board on this segment
Clinton’s best hope now is to somehow take heart in knowing that the nation is not on the metric system, even though adding up the campaign “metrics” is the hottest new buzz word in politics. She is now behind in number of states won, popular vote, elected delegates -- and she lost the pundit vote months and months ago.
Indeed, Clinton must pivot away from any numerical evaluation of the race. No more new math. Instead, why not shift from mathematics to metaphysics? Perhaps a bit of abstract thinking will yield results.
Or she could just hang on for the only "metric" that really counts -- the roll call of the delegates at the Democratic National Convention in August.
]]>Craig on MSNBC “Morning Joe”
Monday (5/12) 6:30 AM EST
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Clinton herself is more forcefully disparaging Obama’s chances to win in November, asserting that his support "among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again." Her friend and unofficial adviser Paul Begala went further, bluntly charging that Obama’s coalition of "eggheads and African-Americans" spells defeat for Democrats.
Is such talk the product of fatigue and disappointment, or is there a strategy at work? If it is a strategy, Clinton will have to go all out to make it work. If not a strategy, she should quickly back off to higher ground.
Going nuclear against Obama cannot be done halfway. It would yield the worst of both worlds for Clinton. Subtle insinuations will still backfire against her, but without scorching the earth under Obama’s feet.
Only a direct and convincing assault of overwhelming force against Obama’s electability offers Clinton any hope for grabbing the nomination at the last minute.
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Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter
Better the No. 2 Spot...or Going Back to the Hill?
(Jonathan Allen, CQ Politics)
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Voting is open until May 12 (Round Three begins May 13).
Dem version coming once a party nominee is set.
Watch Craig’s Video Tour of VP Madness.
Craig on "Decision '08"
MSNBC Today (5/8)
9:05 / 10:00 / 10:45 AM EST
Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)
WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club
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Until she officially loses, Clinton has no reason to drop out. And if this fight goes all the way to the convention floor because Obama doesn't have the required number of votes on record to formally claim the nomination, the blame falls on wimpy superdelegates -- not her.
Ever since losing the Ohio Primary two months ago, the Obama campaign has been fanning the vapors that a victory-clinching mass of superdelegates are waiting in the wings to endorse him. Now would seem to be the time to prove it -- before Clinton wins lopsided majorities in upcoming states like West Virginia next week and again revs up her momentum.
If the argument to Clinton is that she must leave the race for the good of the party, then the same case can be made to superdelegates who hold the power to force her out by giving Obama the victory right now.
Craig on "Verdict with Dan Abrams"
Tonight (5/7) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST
... and on MSNBC "Decision '08"
Thursday (5/8) 9:00-11:00 AM EST
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