Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

BREAKING NEWS

“Cheney shoots friend with BB gun, case to end up in ‘a pellet’ court.”

We know that has to be a lie. Cheney & friend in the same sentence? That’s just wrong.

Sadly for us, that reporter was mute tonight.

Hey, was there a GOP response tonight at all...? My station went to the local news and then national after the press conference, and then I got tired of waiting and switched the channel to Judge Judy.

Also? "Because I like to know what I'm talking about before I speak."
http://www.oneparticularwave.com/wp-content/uploads/oh-snap-460px.jpg

Julia,

You were doing fine until you wrote "Judge Judy". That blew your credibility sky high.

Actually, I've only seen opposition responses to speeches, not press conferences. But that's only my thought. What the hell do I know?

[repost from last thread]

I am so sick of Paul Krugman and everyone kissing his a$$ and putting him up on a pedestal. Yes - I know he won a freaking Nobel prize (indeed I rarely hear his name mentioned without those words in the same sentence).

But his articles and appearances don't strike me as any more insightful than plenty of the other talking heads.

Plus - he is a big whiner. 80% of his words are criticizing things. And the ideas he does put forward and usually far from realistic. All we heard about the stimulus from him is that it was too small. Do you think Obama could have got the support he needed if it was bigger?

Then he starts his clamoring that we should nationalize banks. Really? We want government trying to run huge multi-national corporations with 1000s of employees? Has this guy seen the circus that is Washington? And he wants to throw out all the bank executives on their ass because they didn't anticipate this crisis. And what - replace them with the pols in Washington that didn't anticipate this crisis.

He is just way too partisan and doesn't seem to be particularly helpful or constructive for all the award-winning knowledge crammed into his head.

Ed Henry's mama's so poor, when she put out her cigarette, her kids said, "who turned off the heat?"

We were so poor when I was a kid, The only running water we had, was the drool from grandpa's chin.

You're on a roll Craig. And that was not the only barb. The question on deficits becoming a broken promise burdening future generations and suggesting dubious projections about growth got Obama tense. His deficit reduction plan is not only counterintuitive; it doesn't seem to include some serious debt stimulators. Let's put healthcare aside. Debt is part of the non discretionary costs he talked about being historically low, but left out the obvious combination of rising interest payments and ballooning tax increases a few years out wiping out short term gains. He spun that budget of his, but I'm not sure he scored a run,

He did not refute the idea that much of the stimulus is temporary while pointing out only expanding federal regulation as "changing systemic problems". On one hand the tried to couple healthcare to long term growth, but that's been a national debate for some time. Media has shown some contrarian outbursts. The mood of the country has shifted a bit with groups more emotive from opposite sides. So in perhaps a symbolic move, Obama banned mining of mountain tops and peaks today. We wouldn't want to go to the mountain top and find it not there.

Hilarious Cosmo, really.

A friend called tonight and told me she is sick of hearing Obama repeatedly saying that he is the President..reminded my friend of "I am the decider".

Obama continues to be very poor at taking criticism..He better relax.there is a long way to go...

I meant;

"On one hand he tried to couple healthcare to long term growth, but how to reform it has been a national debate for some time. What is the plan?"

Warren, holy crap. I agree with you.

Obama and the press corps weren't the only ones on national TV yesterday...old Dexter was, too...
Yesterday afternoon I turned on espn and saw they were televising the 1976 NCAA Finals from Philadelphia.
I had taken a dare and flown to Philly without a ticket to try to get into that game.
A ticket was easily purchased and I blended in with some NBC executives and sat right at center court, first row…my ticket was for the rafter-seats.
Indiana was “my team” and after the game I jumped a press table and crawled under another, and was first to congratulate Coach Knight by slapping him on the back.
Thirty-three years later, and I finally saw it…espn did not edit it out…there I was, full screen presence for about 6 seconds, before a security goon finally yanked me away…all my friends at home had seen it, and I was a mini-celebrity for a couple weeks, and people brought it up for years afterward…and I saw it, too, just 33 years later.
And if you think I'm just funnin' ya...nope...and if you get the tape you'll see me clear as a bell!

PolitiFactCheck.com below is a joke. I kept track during the election (particularly the primary) and noted the Obama slant.

Other Liberal fact checkers are a bit more balanced. Pew and others even more evidence based. Obama spoke about charity and vet healthcare, but some of his assumptions and projections are questionable.

http://www.factcheck.org/politics/fact-checking_obamas_speech.html

I think a more vetted study would question even more of the details of Obama's speech and the one tonight, but I am always amused by the little truth teller below, what it filters and what it spins from the myriad reams of facts.

Great story Dex. Did ESPN send you a copy?

do i have this right' the pres is going to triple federal
spending this year'''in a unique one time situation'
so spending anything less than that in the forthcoming
years he will claim is cutting the deficit
but it will still be adding on to the long term debt

No, max, they just happened to be showing a lot of final games yesterday, and I watched the last half and was sure they would chop my "scene" out...but, by God, they showed it!
My wife had seen it live and had a good laugh at seeing it again.
Of all the crazy stuff I've done, that one will be told, etched on my memorial plaque!
All my co-workers had seen it...it truly was good laugh-material for a long time.

oh...if you ever see it, you will see Bobby Knight saying something to me.
His immortal words, never to be forgotten:
"Goddamn you son of a bitch!"

dex
getting good mileage out of your 15minutes of fame''

Obama must have paid Ed Henry to lob that softball. The implication is that the insty-spinners don't know what they are talking about.

America agrees.

The speech was fine. It displayed a confident and decisive President, which is exactly what pong, george will, and fred barnes all claim they want. Liars.

Now they get to pee and moan about some other picked nit.

Congratulations Dexter !

After 33 years you are once again a star. You are probably one of a very tiny select group of people to have been fortunate enough to bear the curses of bobby, the chairman, knight. ( :>D)<

one thing about this crisis' we will all know a lot
more about macro-economics than we wanted to'
thinking in trillions is like thinking about the distance
between galaxies and how big the universe is'
hurts your brain after a little while

Whining AIG Exec quits:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/25/opinion/25desantis.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

we were so poor we couldnt afford a kite....we had to hire one. I have a picture of my dad outside the local tavern hire'n a kite.

---wc fields

Some theme music for this post -

Bob Dylan - Most Likely You Go Your Way And I'll Go Mine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnGLO9io_lc

Thought for the day :
" Every anarchist is a baffled dictator. "

Great, Bob!!!!

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/in-praise-of-followups.html#comment-213745

Wiki:
" As Nietzsche puts it, man "will rather will nothingness than not will".

wiki.....from A Genealogy of Morals, by FWN

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Genealogy_of_Morality

That's a great story, Dex!

There was one scene from the press conference that really bugged me. It was towards the end of the session and involved David Axelrod and his press toady.

There, in the back of the room, was a smug looking Axelrod, his mouth filled with chewing gum, overseeing the proceedings. Toady was at his side, jumping up and down in glee, giving Axelrod a verbal play by play as the prez was speaking.

The press was clearly being used as were, by extension, we.

Bob, I'm thrilled that your 'endeavor' has been such a success. And, I totally agree that your fundraising model could be exactly right for Jack.

hope some enterprising journalist ferrets out the sponsors, names and what they said then and what they're saying now that are responsible for this mess. for a good start use the info on newshour last nite from ucla law school's

"LYNN STOUT: ..... Congress in 1999 and 2000 passed a couple of statutes that seriously deregulated the derivatives markets, and that includes those credit default swaps that got AIG in so much trouble, and also made it possible for old-fashioned stodgy banks and insurance companies to add trading divisions with folks who would go off and speculate in derivatives.

And so what we did was we combined some businesses, the stodgy banking and insurance companies, with these very speculative casino-like divisions. Now the casino divisions are in trouble and they're dragging down the insurance and the banking industries.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And staying with you, why wasn't there already in place a federal power, federal body to oversee that, to regulate it?

LYNN STOUT: Well, in a sense, there was. There was a big debate over whether or not derivatives trading should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. And one of the people who supported that was Brooksley Borne, then the chair of the CFTC, but Congress said no. And in 2000, they basically deregulated the derivatives market and said, "Anything goes."

warren, i wholeheartedly agree with your 12:45. krugman is a whiner.

Did the Pres not have his little ear bud to get answers this time?

Dex... Have you changed much in 33 years? That is very cool....
So who ends up standing after this March madness?

And that is a soundbite that will come back to haunt him every time he mis-speaks.

Frankly, he showed more outrage at Ed Henry's question than he did at the AIG bonuses.

speaker and senate majority leader in congress in 1999 and 2000 when the greedy finance dogs were let loose:

trent lott and dennis hastert

let's erect the tm wall of infamy naming names. to lott and hastert add phil gramm.

"And in one remarkable stretch from 1999 to 2001, he pushed laws and promoted policies that he says unshackled businesses from needless restraints but his critics charge significantly contributed to the financial crisis that has rattled the nation."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/business/economy/17gramm.html?pagewanted=all

good morning gang....

CBob.... I LOVE your marvels.....

patd.... thank you for that exchange between Judy Woodruff and Lynn Stout...

Craig.... I think your column nailed that presser....

Blue.... "Frankly, he showed more outrage at Ed Henry's question than he did at the AIG bonuses."..... makes my comment of the day....

ok..... enough talk.... time for Obama to roll up his sleeves and get to work.... hope he makes the right decisions....

Andrew Jackson's Veto Message from 1832 against bank mergers.

http://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/ajveto01.asp

Key Lines: "It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government. Equality of talents, of education, or of wealth can not be produced by human institutions. In the full enjoyment of the gifts of Heaven and the fruits of superior industry, economy, and virtue, every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add to these natural and just advantages artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society-the farmers, mechanics, and laborers-who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their Government. "

"I like to know what I'm talking about before I speak." Imagine how much quieter this world would be if we all lived by that statement?

corey......and the blogs would all be empty?

You bet, Sturge!

Now Obama gets to be soundbites for everyone.

Corey....
yeah.... but only if we can get those who really do know as oppose to those that only think they know to live by that statement....

"Not only do I not know what's going on....I wouldn't know what to do about it even if I did." - George Carlin

What's that statement? "People who think they know everything really piss off those of us who do know everything!"

"I don't know nothing......why, I dont even SUSPECT nothing."

---Bongo Seville

patd,

Just memorize Gramm, Leach, Bliley that eliminated Glass-Steagall and created the "financial services" industry. http://banking.senate.gov/conf/

Above is the bill. Here is the whole Wiki with the history

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act

Passed by a Republican Congress and unfortunately signed by Bill Clinton

jamie, thanks and here's some numbers to go along with those names:
"Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (Deregulation Dems say caused todays economic problems)
Wikipedia | current

Posted on Wednesday, October 01, 2008 1:30:02 PM by TruthWillWin

Important information about the deregulation bill Democrats are blaming for causing the economic problems:

The bills were introduced in the Senate by Phil Gramm (R-TX) and in the House of Representatives by James Leach (R-IA). The bills were passed by a 54-44 vote along party lines with Republican support in the Senate and by a 343-86 vote in the House of Representatives. Nov 4, 1999: After passing both the Senate and House the bill was moved to a conference committee to work out the differences between the Senate and House versions. The final bill resolving the differences was passed in the Senate 90-8-1 and in the House: 362-57-15. This 'veto proof legislation' was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on November 12, 1999."

Everybody knows:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h27HRNm_r4U

important that those names be repeated over and over by the 24/7 news along with the other sound bites.

I Don't Know Much

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soO0CMnU9Bo

mornin'.

warren, max, try reading Krugman before you use him as an example of someone putting Obama on a pedestal. He has done anything but that and warren's post on the one hand criticizes Krugman for kissing Obama's a$$ and utting him on a pedestal, then goes on to detail all the criticism he has had for Obama's progams. I sense a lack of internal consistency there. All Krugman has done is agree in general with the outline of the stimulus package Obama announced within the first week of his administration because it was based on government spending rather than tax relief. Since then he has been critical both of the size of the stimulus (as warren pointed out, he believes it is too small to do what it is designed to do) and has been particularly critical of the plan for the government to buy up toxic debt.

Krugman is a big govenment guy economically - he's only partisan to the extent that he disagrees with the Repug approach of tax cuts as incentivizing growth and investment and (lying about) small government to the economy as being ineffective at best and injurious to long term growth and stability in fact. I'm not an economist, so I don't know whether he's right or wrong, but I tend to agree with the approach he espouses.

I hope Gramm, Leach and Bliley were heavily invested in each of the large banks and in indexed funds in the market.

Pogo

What would be really interesting to know would be did Gramm, Leach, and Bliley ride the elevator up and then jump off at the top floor before the plunge down thanks to some of their "contributors".

CBob

New species in New Guinea

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-science/20090325/AS.Papua.New.Guinea.New.Species/

newpogo:

I do read Krugman and I think you misread my post.

I am sick of Krugman and sick of everyone putting Krugman on a pedestal. People fawn over Krugman because of his Nobel Prize and revere him as some type of oracle. To me - he sounds like an whiny, unrealistic egghead who is more concerned with sounding snarky than with providing an real solutions.

And by calling Krugman partisan - I was implying that his allegiance is to the far left - not Obama.

OK, warren, I did misread your post. Sorry about that. I got that you disagreed with Krugman - and that's fine - after all there's more than two horses in thie rodeo. Like I said I'm no economist, and don't know which horse to ride - but I do know which one to stay off of. That's the thing I do agree with Krugman on. BTW, it's good to see you back here.

howard kurtz in today's wapo said:
"As president, he has broken with precedent by having his press office notify correspondents that they will be called on at upcoming news conferences."

questions, what form does the notification take? when - minutes or hours before? do the others know at the onset who the chosen will be?

Shorter Warren

I hate Krugman because he has been correct and faith in Obama was badly misplaced

btw warren, just in case you missed this back in the site changeover - Newpogo is the same as the old Pogo - only that name was taken at OpenID. To save you time and effort, Pogo is fine.

Pogo

I don't know that there is " a right horse" It is different horses for different situations.
You don't hook a race horse to the plow, then again you don't enter a plow horse in the kentucky derby.
My main bitch about the Krugman /milton Friedman types is how often they want their pet theories to cover everything. I think it must be the curse of being a social scientist. I see it in Psychology all the time to.

Jack

" hope Gramm, Leach and Bliley were heavily invested in each of the large banks and in indexed funds in the market."

pogo, from that oct nyt article linked above:
"..he left Capitol Hill in 2002 to work as an investment banker and lobbyist for UBS, a Swiss bank that has been hard hit by the market downturn....
...The bank has declared nearly $50 billion in credit losses and write-downs since the start of last year, prompting a bailout of up to $60 billion by the Swiss government."

ppat - that's encouraging. I hope it's as bad asa it looks, but I doubt it.

... sorry, still just catching up on the last thread.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/left-jabs-obama.html#comment-213680
Jack, I'm assuming you saw CBobs post to you last night?

CBob, I'm glad to hear things are going so well for you.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/left-jabs-obama.html#comment-213707

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/left-jabs-obama.html#comment-213657
Ha Bethy.... maybe I was wrong to say everyone has that problem. But I sure do.

"Hopefully we won't hear or read any of the bitching and moaning about followup questions"
Rezdog March 24, 2009 11:52 PM

No bitching and moaning Rez? My life would stop!

New pogo is the old pogo...sounds like a TV jingle!!

Jack, that's true. No one rides the same horse forever. But IMHO there is one horse that has proved that it's broken down and needs to be put out to pasture permanently. Slick marketing made it look good - but it broke down at the 3/4 pole and limped back to the paddock.

yep - none of that "new and improved" shit. The old one was good enough.

I always laugh when I hear something is new and improved - the implication being that the crap we've sold you in the past wasn't good enough.

Jack, Bob, and all the other Community rebuilders, Habitat for Humanity is opening ReStores. Here is a blog article from a friend who is using the supplies for her home improvements

http://carol-george.blogspot.com/

Here is the info about locations on the HFH site. Builders donate materials (lots in this building slump). The material is resold and proceeds go to HFH

http://www.habitat.org/env/restores.aspx

"Not only do I not know what's going on....I wouldn't know what to do about it even if I did." - George Carlin Posted by: Corey

Corey, Thanks for quoting George Carlin this morning.
I really related to this one. :)

... now lets see who I can piss off this morning (just kidding). :-J)
At last we get it - this war is Vietnam for slow learners
Eight years of fighting has made no difference to the balance of power in Afghanistan. Only one word makes sense: exit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/25/simon-jenkins-obama-iraq-war

pogo, as for leach he's a visiting prof at princeton and on some boards mostly non-profit looks like (wonder how much they lost). since he endorsed obama, he probably landed on his feet somewhere in the bailout.

still looking for what karma has in store for bliley.

btw, here's an old web page of krugman's... kinda interesting.
http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/

LOL, Hannity is such a know nothing Reagan worshipper that he forgets that Reagan was a politician.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ed-kilgore/elephants-with-short-memo_b_178572.html

TS, Sean, and thank you, Ronnie.

(03-23) 21:15 PDT Chicago (AP) --

The largest study of its kind finds that older Americans who eat large amounts of red meat and processed meats face a greater risk of death from heart disease and cancer. The federal study of more than half a million men and women bolsters prior evidence of the health risks of diets laden with red meat like hamburger and processed meats like hot dogs, bacon and cold cuts.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/03/23/national/a130121D26.DTL

eat like Thomas Jefferson --meat as a condiment

pogo, bliley's current digs

http://www.steptoe.com/professionals-504.html

pogo, hmmmm

"The main purpose of this page is to give interested parties - students, colleagues, journalists, mad bombers, etc."

That 'is' an interesing web page you linked patd. I always love reading Krugman's point of view."

"Some people say that our economic problems are structural, with no quick cure available; but I believe that the only important structural obstacles to world prosperity are the obsolete doctrines that clutter the minds of men."
http://www.pkarchive.org/

President Obama has very measured and deliberate way he delivers a speech. While using the teleprompter he speaks in short phrases, moves his read from right to left and vise versa, looks into the audience and waits to see if someone is nodding their head in agreement before he turns his head. Last night in his opening statement, that bobble head movement was missing and now I know why.

http://www.breitbart.tv/html/304123.html

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/left-jabs-obama.html#comment-213707
Cbob
Congradulations on the fund raising.
I saved the the link to fundable
Most neighborhood projects I've done only take a few dollars and that is what the site is all about.
I think you had a point about Intell recreating our world.

Looks like I need to think about another "Beautifull Neighborhood" flowers along the sidewalk project.

"you can't plant flowers along the sidewalk, people will just pick them or pull them up"
But they don't
Well there was the time that the neighbor had her 2 preschool grandchildren. They picked all my tulips and gave grandma a big bouqet. lol

Jack

Pat - different S&J.

patd

Now that Bliley is a lobbyist, I wonder how long he will leave these items of pride on the web page.

"Spearheading enactment of securities litigation reform, and leading the House in the first—and only—successful veto override of the Clinton Presidency.

Leading a comprehensive overhaul of the nation's securities laws in the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act."

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/in-praise-of-followups.html#comment-213795

... the direct opposite of the 'quick fix' Atkins diet.
Good advice Katherine. (now if I could just give up junk food).

Conservative folks and some others are always complaining that the media loves and supports Obama. Hell didn't they put him office? Acccording to beloved GOPer Bill Bennett, thats all a big myth. First the NYT, now CNN and ABC. ~)

http://tinyurl.com/d4fdkl

Flatus , Chloe

Thanks for the point to Cbobs comment last night

Jack

For those interested in Paul Krugman's take on what Obama/Geithner is or is not doing, here is an interview with ABC News, and his comments can also be accessed at Paul Krugman's blog at NYT.

"Krugman: Obama, Geithner need to do more to boost economy"

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=7161203&page=1

While most everyone will endure pain for sometime from this crisis---I would like to see Obama/Geithner's approach be successful, therefore, at this point I am
not convinced that Krugman's view that nationalization and more, more, more is the proper solution.

Duh
use spell check , use spell check, use spell check

lol Jack

"They picked all my tulips and gave grandma a big bouqet. lol"

I bet gramma sure appreciated it Jack. :)

"--I would like to see Obama/Geithner's approach be successful" Coreen

Amen.

Patd good morning,,,morning to all

Pat,,,thanks for your links today,,on Phil Gramm,,I have already e mailed them along to others

Chloe morning to you and the little sleeping beauty

forget the sturm und drang of krugman. a little frivolity with our financial education. here's a delightful exchange re money with niall ferguson (harvard prof)

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/215952/january-13-2009/niall-ferguson

solar, and a good morning to you. you'll especially like that colbert clip just linked...... i think

Good morning Solar.
Sounds like you've already been busy this morning. :)

The little sleeping beauty just woke up. She's happily swinging, but it won't last long.

Other responses to Ed Henry's follow-up Obama considered:

"I don't know, Ed. Why are you so stupid?"

"My outrage has a 3 day gestation period, with expression on the 4th."

""Cuz I was busy doing your mom."

pat, ironically enough, Bliley was my congressman when I lived south of the James when I was in law school. Well, not MY congressman, but congressman of the 3rd (renumbered to be the 7th) district of VA. I lived in the old 3rd district and literally on the border of the new 7th - and did not vote for him in the '90 election.

Hats off to Mr. Whsykyjck, by the way. Very cool, indeed. I personally feel that the only way urban blight will be 'curbed' (get it?) is through initiatives by private citizens such as yourself, so kudos on being THAT guy.

And hey; now that you're a 'community organizer', POTUS can't be far off...

your lordship - how about

"Good question, Ed. Let me think about it and I'll get back to you."

Was going to listen to that Colbert clip Pat,,,but that little voice in my head just told me that Im lazy,,,so I better listen to her,,and get to exercising and other things that I love to put off.

Chloe,,,Yes,,,I try to be busy (at least look like it),,,Im in the habit of getting up for work at 6 a m,,,and dressing for work,,,even if I don't always have work,,,I make phone calls to clients,,architects ,,and people in the trades,,,to stay in touch with them,,and find out what going on in the real world,,,,,lots of bad news,,,,,but some encouraging ones also,,,I see a few signs that have helped,,since Obama announce his toxic plan,,,,,I have said that ---that is the first thing that he should do,,,,,as contractors for rehabbing,,,,the first thing that they assess is what the damages are,,,and what can be saved,,,,this plan should have been the very first thing that he did,,,the markets would have responded like they did a long time ago,,,I think?

more from niall:

"The stupid thing is that it was clear a year ago that a very large number of financial institutions were in trouble. Future historians will look back and say the time to address the banking problem was 2007, not in 2008. What on earth were they doing for twelve months?"

http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/51011/

I dunno, pogo. I looked into Obama's 'icy stare', and those were the only alternative responses I perceived; but I could have missed one or two. C-Span had a bad camera angle.

i hope he wasnt staring long into the abyss......

Ex-bubblehead, sturge? is that it?

Here is my 10 cents re: "toxic assets." It is long and arcane - but for anyone that may be interested...

I wrote this in response to this:

Government Intervention in the Market for Toxic Cars
Imagine a car lot that has 100 cars on it. However, some of these cars have problems. Half of them will have engine troubles that total the cars - the engines blow up and the cars are then worthless - and this will happen just after purchase. The other half are perfectly fine. Unfortunately, there is no way to tell prior to purchase which type of car you will get no matter how hard you try. Thus, half of the assets on the car dealer's "balance sheet" - the cars on its lot - are toxic, and lack of transparency makes it impossible to tell which ones are bad prior to purchase.

read the rest on: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/

My take:

This is a helpful analogy - but I am not sure where the guy is getting the 50% number from - but I suspect it is his ass. I also don't agree that it is "impossible" to tell which ones are toxic prior to purchase.

Anyways, here is my attempt to try and explain these "toxic assets" for anyone who is interested...

Let's take the most notorious and common example of a "toxic asset" - a security based on sub-prime mortgage loans. These securities are created through a "securitization" where a mortgage company (1) takes the revenue streams from 1000's of loans, (2) pools them into a trust, and (3) then slices and dices the money flow created by mortgage and interest payments into securities that have varying rights to the cash flow.

The most basic structure would create two types of securties - Class A and Class B. Class A would be "senior" - which means that any losses would hit all of the "junior" Class B securities before they hit Class A. (But of course most structures are far more complex.)

At this point we should take a step back. There is two different ways these securities have value. On the one hand - they pay out like a bond. In other words, as people make mortgage payments - the payments are passed on to the security holders. On the other hand - they have a trading price. Now I believe it is the trading price where the bottom has fallen out and wrecked the banks balance sheets.

I am not sure what people are calling "toxic assets" - but I would think most senior securities are still worth something because some percentage of the 1000s of mortgage holders in the pool are still making payments. Even those securities based on a pool of subprime loans. According to Wiki, as of May 2008, 25% of subprime loans were delinquent. (The security holders also have rights to any money taken in from foreclosure.) And from what I know - the majority of MBS securities are based on prime loans - and subprime was more of a niche. Although, the number of MBS securities based on subprime loans rose in the past few years.

As far as how to determine the value of these securities - that can be done by looking at a few things to guage the quality of the loans in the pool. It is important to note that securities are not based on a pool of loans taken from different companies - instead the pool is made up by loans underwritten by one company during a fixed time period. To give an example - a pool would consist of 1000s of loans underwritten by Countrywide during the course of a few months. Also, subprime and prime loans would not be in the same pool. All these securities have a prospectus that gives information such as where the mortgage holders live (e.g. 50% CA, 20% FL, etc.).

The "toxic assets" on the banks balance sheets are not new issues. So investors can look at how the loans in the pool have performed so far to estimate how they will perform in the future. They can research the underwriting practices of the company that handed out the mortgages. They can also see how that company's loans have performed in previous pools.

So - it is not "impossible" to determine the value - but it is complicated as hell. And because (1) it is so complicated to determine the value, (2) the rise in defaults and decrease in home values, and (3) the hysteria caused by the media and politicians re: these "toxic" assets - the trading value has dropped through the floor. I suspect that for the most part - because of the factors I mentioned - the "trading" price is depressed far below the actual value. In other words - it underestimates the amount of revenue actually coming in from the mortgage pools.

Another factor that inreases the uncertainty re: the value of these securities is that they are not sold on a public market - like the NYSE. These securities are bought and sold in the private market and information re: transactions and prices is not easy to access. Creating a more transparent market for these securities is - in part - what the Geithner plan is attempting to create. (Think about it - it would be far more difficult to determine the trading price of Wal-Mart or GE if you could not look to the NYSE to see what people are willing to pay for those securities.)

I also think that people are lumping together securities based on subprime loans with those based on prime loans and no one wants to touch MBS securities regardless of how the loans have been performing.

Not your grandmother's Texas.

Cute blog article about using "Gaybingo" in Dallas to raise funds for services to individuals with AIDS and support of families affected by HIV and AIDS

http://thiseclecticlife.com/

"that little voice in my head just told me that Im lazy"

.... mine gave up long ago.
Solar, I'm glad you're seeing good signs. I will tell you one thing (that you already know, I'm sure), things are a lot better some places than others. Whether that will last or not, I don't know. You're right though, it's good to see Obama getting us on the right track.

Pat

I really liked the Colbert ,,,Niall tape,,,,,,the invisible money part was great,,,sorta like when I ask an employee,,,what are you doing?,,,he answers nothing,,,then I ask him how do you know when you are finished??,,,invisible money is only visible,when it circulates,,and my worker can only show work that has been done,,,to circulate that money,,,so let get us all to work,,,,,the cigarettes for money example was good also,,there are people in the very poor hoods,that buy a carton on cigarettes and sell them to others that can't get to the store,,or can't buy a whole pack at one time,,,so they buy them one by one,,,and end up paying a lot more,,,but I did like Niall's way explaining it all,,and I also noticed that Colbert never gave Niell his money back,,,another way to get some else s money ,,,and don't give it back,,,,thanks again

"I personally feel that the only way urban blight will be 'curbed' (get it?) is through initiatives by private citizens"

.. one guy at a time.

Solar - get to work - LOL.

lunch

Chloe,,,

I think that you will like this site,,, The promise and perils of credit derivatives,,,,and while you are there,,look at the other subject matters

http://ssrn.com/abstract=929747

NASA scientist - Corporate lobbying hindering efforts

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/mar/18/nasa-climate-change-james-hansen

Pogo
You (James Cagney voice) dirty rat,,,,,,hit me when I wasn't looking

:-l = blank look on my face

Solar, That stuff looks 'over my head'.

Did you send me there, because I said I related to this quote from George Carlin, that Corey posted:

"Not only do I not know what's going on....I wouldn't know what to do about it even if I did."

Warren

Great comment!
I don't mind a long comment when it is as thought full and fact filled as that one.
Very rational and insightful.

Thanks

Jack

Chloe

Yeah,,,,just a little jokey ~),,,,but its not over your head,,,,,take a look at them by dates,,,,,that is one of the people that are on the channels that I told you about,,,,9410

'that is one of the people that are on"

That should read,,,,that is the kind of people that are on

FYI

I just received this email notice from my Congressman about eligibility for benefiting from the Making Home Affordable program. I have no idea what's the benefit, if any, but maybe someone knows someone who may be in need. There's a 12 page FAQ.

http://tinyurl.com/dbwelv

Motown drummer Uriel Jones dies

http://www.comcast.net/articles/music/20090109/ENTERTAINMENT-US-MOTOWN/

Well, Obama sould have been tending to more pressing matters, but I have to say: he picked the ***k out of his bracket.

http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/entry?entryID=2813746

Team Obama is starting to release details on their regulation plans interesting read

"Banks and other financial institutions must have stricter oversight that reins in their ability to harm the overall financial system, Geithner said. He said regulators need new tools to prevent “cascading damage” when financial companies run into trouble,"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aG03X4mz1Mh8&refer=home

Jack

I like this paragraph,from that link that you posted.

"The U.S. also will coordinate internationally to press for stronger global standards for financial companies, Geithner said in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York."

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/in-praise-of-followups.html#comment-213846

Hey guys, Craig snuck in a new thread on us.

New Thread
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2009/03/all-obama-all-the-time.html#comments

NEW THREAD