• Perfect Time for Napolitano to Swap Arizona for D.C. 
• Louisiana's Jefferson Favored for Re-election Despite Indictment
• CQ Transcript: President and Laura Bush on 'Morning Edition'
• Chicago Race for Emanuel's House Seat -- Who's In So Far
• Coleman Edges Into Plus Territory in Minnesota Senate Recount
• Poll Tracker: Eye on the Senate: Chambliss Ahead in Georgia  

7 choices made, 11 to go:
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• Now playing in Politics (Un)Seriously: Sarah Palin's 'Turkey Interview' Outtakes | | Obama's Acceptance Speech Was Way Too Conciliatory | What Hath Obama Wrought?
• The Election '08 Page: Our Archive of All Election Returns and Profiles of New members of Congress
• The Transition Page: Find All Our Stories on the Presidential and Congressional Transitions in One Place
• New "In Transition" Blog: Our Running Account of Developments in the Presidential Transition

Why are we so gullible? Ronald Reagan promised that he could vastly increase defense spending, preserve entitlement programs and balance the budget. Instead, we got the biggest increase in the national debt since our nation was founded.

Barack Obama says he can "jolt" the economy with a boost in federal spending the likes of which we've not seen since Franklin Roosevelt's time - and still manage to control spending.

On Tuesday the President-Elect called for spending restraint and a federal budget overhaul even as he called for a deficit-exploding economic recovery bill expected to be signed on the day he takes office in January.

"If we are going to make the investments we need, we also have to be willing to shed the spending we don't need," Obama said in Chicago.

What is the spending we don't need? Not much detail on that yet. Don't bet much on ever finding out.

George W. Bush is so unpopular, so discredited and so completely without authority to rule that Barack Obama has the right, the opportunity and, indeed, the imperative to take charge now.

That is what Bush family confidant James Baker was implicitly suggesting in calling for joint action by the incoming and outgoing administrations in order to restore confidence of the markets and the public.

In these extra-ordinary times, there is no "one president at a time," as Obama has understandably and appropriately observed. There is only the future - and Obama is it.

Obama gets it. Saying "we don't have a minute to waste" in announcing his economic team on Monday, the President-Elect exercised his right in these circumstances to take over now.

Bush is not only a lame duck. He's done.

• Congress Will Work Through January to Send Obama Economic Stimulus Package
• CQ Transcript: President-Elect Barack Obama Announces Members of His Economic Team

One of Barack Obama's closest advisers made one small point quite clear in each of his appearances on the Sunday talk shows -- auto executives would be well advised to get out of those corporate jets if they want the President-Elect on their side.

"My hope is that the Big Three auto executives come back to Congress in early December -- hopefully on commercial flights -- and come back with a plan, and not just an expression of need." -- Obama senior adviser David Axelrod, ABC's "This Week" (11/23)

Ford and General Motors are downsizing their jet fleets in the wake of last week's public indignation at the sight of executives flying private planes to Washington and asking for handouts. According to company proxy statements, GM spent $675,000 on personal air travel for its top three executives last year. Last year, Ford CEO Alan Mulally alone spent $752,000 for use of the corporate plane, which his family also uses.

Axelrod, a political pro who values the power of symbolism, repeated the 'fly commercial' refrain many times on Sunday, so the company bosses had better understand that he was not joking. They not only should fly commercial when they return to Washington next month, but probably ought to stay out of the first class section as well.

Or, better yet, drive themselves to Capitol Hill in one of their fuel-efficient cars.

• CQ Transcripts: CNN's "Late Edition" | ABC's "This Week" | Fox News Sunday | CBS' "Face the Nation" | NBC's "Meet the Press"

Clinton Would Have Short Record to Defend in a Confirmation Hearing

"Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to become secretary of state believe she's demonstrated creative thinking on international affairs. ... While Clinton has been a high-wattage star on the international stage since her time as First Lady, she lacks a long resume of foreign-policy successes to accompany her celebrity." -- Adam Graham-Silverman, CQ Politics

• Clinton Appointment Would Bar Her From Fundraising
• For Richardson, Confirmation Process is Been-There, Done-That
• Poll Tracker: Most Americans Think Clinton as Secretary of State Is Good Idea
   

Barack Obama could be better off with Hillary Rodham Clinton in his administration than she would be. Putting his former adversary inside his own tent makes some sense for the President-Elect. She would be out of politics, more or less, as secretary of state, and out of his way, perhaps.

Still, there would be no end to the drama, a potentially distracting soap opera that could keep focus away from Obama's agenda. And as Obama seems to flounder for a foreign policy, seeking advice from former Republican player Brent Scowcroft, why should Hillary get involved?

New York Times: An Option for Clinton - Enhanced Senate Role
"Democratic leaders in the Senate are prepared to give Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton a still-undefined leadership role there if she does not become Barack Obama's secretary of state. Mrs. Clinton is wrestling with whether to abandon her independence to become the nation's top diplomat or remain in a chamber where lack of seniority limits her influence."

For Clinton, why not bide her time and slowly build her base on Capitol Hill? Sure, as the junior senator from New York, she is not in the chamber's power center. But it will come if she stays there. After the roiling experience of her failed presidential campaign, another few years in the political wilderness might actually do her some good.

At the end of the day, Clinton is better off for having been considered - but not by actually serving in Obama's Cabinet. It seems somewhat demeaning for her to be working for someone who, after all, could fire her if things go bad.

Obama gets some credit with her supporters for giving it a shot. It has now dragged on so long, however, that they might both be better off if this does not actually happen.

Craig at University of Virginia Today (11/21)
Moderating 1:45 PM EST Panel, Charlottesville VA
American Democracy Conference (Open to Public)

Now that Missouri is finally called, we have a winner -- Our own Trail Mix original regular, Chef Sheila. A former White House staffer turned culinary artist and contributor to The Back Channel, Sheila nailed the Electoral College results long before the election: 365 votes for Barack Obama.

How did she do it?

"OK, my friend, here is the method of my madness: My passion isn't strategy or the horse racing. Mine is the candidate. I get to know as much about a candidate as I can, so I can get a "feel" for how a race will shape up. As you know, I was an Obama supporter from the start (as in his 2004 speech). For the last two years I have watched the campaign's strategy building with each and every week. The last two months I began seeing a trend that cycled up and down on an average of 5 points until the last few weeks. My confidence in Obama's strategy, that people wanted honesty and transparency, and my weekly reading of Fivethirtyeight.com, gave me the confidence that Obama would win somewhere in that number group . . . Now, where's my cherry pie? Of course, what I really wanted was a 15-point spread!!!!  LOL." -- Chef Sheila

Sheila hereby wins permanent bragging rights as the Nostradamus of Trail Mix for Election 2008. Congratulations! . . . and thanks to Jamie for managing our predictions list.

President-elect Barack Obama used his first post-election meeting with President George W. Bush last week to urge a speedy bailout of the auto industry, but the incumbent's party is slowing things down.  

Top Senate Republicans said Tuesday that this year's $700 billion financial industry bailout program should not be the source of aid for struggling domestic automakers. Meanwhile, House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer raised the possibility of calling members back in December to deal with the auto issue. More on this story.

Detroit auto makers might have to wait until Obama, along with new Democratic members of Congress, get in place next year. On Sunday, Obama discussed his thoughts for a bailout in a CBS "60 Minutes" interview, saying it should be "conditioned on labor, management, suppliers, lenders, all the stakeholders coming together with a plan" for "a sustainable U.S. auto industry. ... So that we are creating a bridge loan to somewhere as opposed to a bridge loan to nowhere."

More on CQ Politics

• U.S. Automaker Executives Plead for Aid as Hopes Fade for Speedy Action
• Poll Tracker: Americans Divided on Auto Bailout
• Frank Presses Treasury To Use Bailout Fund To Stave Off Foreclosures
• Madison Powers: Bailing Out Detroit

Call me dubious about Barack Obama's apparent enthusiasm for emulating Abraham Lincoln's choice to bring former political rivals into his Cabinet. It worked a century and a half ago when White House infighting was mostly private, but in today's world every squabble could become a public spectacle.

When Lincoln did not like what was written about him, he ordered the military to shut down a New York newspaper and arrest the editors. Presumably, those days are gone.

Scandal-crazed bloggers, out-of-control partisans and unmanageable leakers now lurk around new administrations like nothing before. Big egos, each with a unique political base and a personal agenda, could distract the nation and derail the new administration

Naïve presidents often first take office with grand promises about how, this time, the members of the Cabinet will be more than lap dogs. Jimmy Carter, for instance, vowed to run his administration with a strong Cabinet, holding weekly meetings that soon became bi-weekly, and then monthly, and, by his last year, quite seldom.

If Obama avoids the pattern of abandoning early promises of Cabinet-wide government in favor of an entrenched White House, it will be a first, almost since Lincoln's time.

Craig discusses buzz about Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State with MSNBC's Keith Olbermann (11/14)

Craig on MSNBC Today (11/15)
Various Times 3:00-5:30 PM EST

In 1953, Charles Erwin Wilson, then president of General Motors, was named by President Dwight Eisenhower as Secretary of Defense and was asked during hearings before the Senate Armed Services Committee if as a member of the Cabinet he could make a decision adverse to the interests of GM. Wilson said, "For years I thought what was good for the country was good for General Motors and vice versa."

General Motors is now little more three dollars per share, and the experts say SELL.

That can't be good.

• Main Street's Engine (UAW Pres. Ron Gettelfinger)
• Automakers Don't Belong Under Bailout Plan, Paulson Says
• Democratic Call for Auto Industry Aid Comes With Conditions

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Tonight (11/14) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

In Video Trail Mix, Craig says it seems like John McCain and Sarah Palin are having more fun than the man who beat them.

Watching Barack Obama grapple with the grim realities of taking on the presidency in tough times brings to mind various White House transitions throughout history.

Perhaps one of the most dramatic was on April 12, 1945, the day when President Franklin D. Roosevelt passed away. FDR's vice president, Harry S. Truman, remarked to reporters, "Pray for me boys, the moon and the stars just fell on me."

Those in Truman's situation often provoked pity from those who really knew what he was in for. Also on that fateful day, Roosevelt's widow demonstrated that she felt even sorrier for what awaited the man who would succeed him.

Truman was a bit stunned by the reaction he got from First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt as he offered consolation. "Is there anything I can do for you?" Truman asked.

Without a pause, Mrs. Roosevelt brushed aside Truman's concern, saying, "Is there anything we can do for you? For you are the one in trouble now."

It wasn't so much that Mrs. Roosevelt felt the times were especially tough for the new president. World War II was winding down and the nation's economy was on the upswing. She was really referring to the pressures of a job that is overwhelming in the best of times.

Just a week or so after that initial exchange Mrs. Roosevelt sent a handwritten letter to Truman expanding upon her famous warning that "you are the one in trouble now."

Enclosing one her husband's favorite figurines, a comical-looking donkey, Mrs. Roosevelt wrote, "This little donkey has long been in my husband's possession and was on his desk. He looks a bit obstinate and Franklin said he needed a reminder sometimes that his decisions had to be final and taken with a sense that God would give guidance to a humble beast. Once having decided something, the obstinate little donkey kept his sense of humor and determination going against great pressure."

Here's what worries me about comparing the current economic downturn to the Great Depression of the 1930's: Despite what many think, it actually took a brutal world war to revive our economy.

The unprecedented jobs-producing role of World War II masked what was actually the tepid effects of Franklin Roosevelt's much-hyped New Deal, which was little more than a band aid compared to the economic healing of a biblical conflict on six continents. And yet, these days comparisons are being made to FDR's domestic programs as if they saved the day.

In other words, the real lesson of the Great Depression is that worldwide war is what saved us. Which would lead to the conclusion that a massive arms buildup is what would save us now.

The lesson of defeating the Great Depression ought to be that jobs-producing federal spending in a great national cause is what works - and, unless we want it to be done by sending more Americans to their deaths in foreign wars, there should be another way.

• Political Economy: Taking the Long View
• Bush and Obama Meet Amid Challenges at Home and Abroad
• Poll Tracker: A Most Popular Man Meets a Very Unpopular One 
• Obama's Transition Challenge: Hitting the Ground Running
• In Transition: Is Obama Cabinet in Granholm's Future?
• David Corn: Transition Fever: Holbrooke, Holder, and Gorelick, Oh My!

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ought to think about becoming chairman of the Republican National Committee. Although there are many others in the running, Schwarzenegger could instantly refresh the party's brand identification. This week the GOP governors meet in Florida, and no doubt the political future of their embattled party will be much on their minds.

Republicans should look to their governors for ways to emerge from the ashes of two elections in which Democrats delivered a beating. Socially moderate governors such as Schwarzenegger, Florida's Charlie Crist and Louisiana's Bobby Jindal offer a path out of the political wilderness.

Schwarzenegger's promise as a neutral party chairman is his inability to run for president, under the Constitution. But who knows, that could always be changed in this climate of political change.

Thanks to the keen eye of our own Dexter Johnson, Trail Mix Night Watchman, here's a suggestion from White House history for the next presidential animal -- for real change in Washington why not a cow instead of a dog? This Library of Congress photo shows Pauline, pet cow of President William Howard Taft, on the lawn in front of the State, War and Navy Building (now the Executive Office Building) adjacent to the White House.

Craig talks with MSNBC's Keith Olbermann about the Senate shuffle in Georgia and Alaska -- and what to do about Joe Lieberman (11/7)

More on CQ Politics

• Lieberman Resists Losing Homeland Panel, GOP Recruits Him
• What to Do about Stevens?
• Some House and Senate Seats May Take Weeks to Resolve
• Coleman's Lead Over Franken Too Small to Avoid Minnesota Senate Recount

Barack Obama's formula for making change might seem a bit contradictory, but it makes sense. His two most important personnel choices -- Joe Biden for Vice President and Rahm Emanuel for Chief of Staff -- signal an intention to change Washington from the inside. Both know how the game is played up and down Pennsylvania Avenue.

Unless, of course, this all means that Obama is signaling to Washington that there won't be much change -- but I doubt that. If you want to blow up a building, after all, it helps to at least consult someone who has seen the blueprints.

An associate of Obama's when he was in the Illinois Legislature once told me that he is keenly aware of what he doesn't know about being president. That is a good sign. Because presidents who think they know it all usually wind up in a world of trouble.

Presidents like Jimmy Carter, who approached Washington with a chip on his shoulder and a bevy of aides who had even less experience in the nation's capital than he had, soon found themselves undermined by a city that is well schooled in the business of tearing down an unfriendly White House.

Changing this city from the inside is about the only way to get it done.

Now on CQ Politics

• Emanuel to Move to White House as Chief of Staff
• Obama Names Transition Team
• Democrats To Make Children's Health Program a Top Priority
• Eleven Issues Facing Barack Obama
• Obama Wants Stimulus to Be 'First Thing' in 111th Congress
• CQ Transcript: President-Elect Obama's News Conference   

 

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Tonight (11/7) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

Tina Fey might have to reconsider plans to retire her Sarah Palin alter ego now that Republican insiders are unloading all kinds of wild stories about the GOP running mate -- meetings in bath towels, tempter tantrums, and one claim that she had no clue that Africa was a continent instead of a country.

But sadly, Fey told Entertainment News she will retire her comic impersonation on NBC's "Saturday Night Live" to concentrate on her NBC sitcom, "30 Rock." Surely Fey has time for just one Palinesque temper tantrum in a bath towel.

For those who thought Palin might get her own show on the Fox News Channel, maybe not. Mike Huckabee has already done a pilot there, and Fox is the outlet that first reported news of the anonymous GOP claims about Palin. It looks like Palin and her supporters will have to add Fox to their list of liberal media types out to get her.

• Palin lays low as interview requests pile up
• Can Palin resurrect the GOP? Does she want to?
• Can Ted Stevens thrust Palin back into the national spotlight?

Who knows how long it lasts, but starting with the spontaneous crowds cheering in the streets on Election Night, the nation's capital feels different right now. People are less moody, as if climbing out of a dark hole into the light.

Walking past the White House this morning, as I often do, it wasn't just the scaffolding going up for the new president's Inaugural parade reviewing stand. People were smiling and laughing, congratulating each other on the election of Barack Obama.

"Keep the faith," one man said to no one in particular as he watched the construction workers, who turned and waved. And then those within earshot burst into a long round of applause.

• Video Trail Mix: What Obama's Win Means to the World
• Video: Obama Victory Speech | McCain Concession Speech
• Slideshow: Get Out the Vote
• Election Result Maps: Presidential, Congressional & Gubernatorial Results

Craig considers how Barack Obama embodies our apology to the world for going nuts after 9/11. (Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)

"Waiting on the World To Change," John Mayer (Edited by Craig Crawford) 

Lyndon Baines Johnson was supposedly depressed on the night in 1964 as he pulled off one of the greatest legislative achievements of his presidency -- the Civil Rights Act that outlawed most forms of racial segregation. 

Asked by a young aide, Bill Moyers, why he seemed so glum, Johnson, thinking about his beloved Democratic Party, reportedly said, "We have lost the South for a generation."

Even if that quote is merely the stuff of legend, the sentiment behind it was prophetic. In short order, Republican Richard Nixon launched his party's so-called Southern Strategy, turning the region into a GOP base by campaigning against desegregation policies such as "forced" busing to integrate schools.

Barack Obama's election on Tuesday to become the nation's first African-American president proves that by doing the right thing Johnson and his party ultimately got their reward -- points in heaven and votes on the ground.

My understanding is that President-Elect Barack Obama already gets it, but to effectively govern he needs to quickly move rightward in ways that will require many of his liberal supporters to be patient. In the next few days expect Obama to reach out to John McCain supporters with specific and unequivocal moves that signal his intention to govern from the center.

"I will be your president too," Obama to McCain voters (Chicago victory speech, 11/5)

The Obama camp is planning such a move, I'm told, and prepared to make their core supporters a bit grumpy in so doing. But Obama knows that now is the time - while his liberal fans revel in the euphoria of his election and are inclined to cut him some slack.

Obama has carefully studied how Bill Clinton got off track by moving left early in his presidency. That's a big reason why Democrats suffered massive losses in Congress in the first midterm election after Clinton's 1992 victory.

Look for Obama to quickly take steps this week to demonstrate that he has no plans to open the liberal flood gates.

CQ Politics: Obama Will Take Oath at a Much Bluer Capitol

Join us now in Comments for a live thread on tonight's Election Day results (Refresh your browser for latest comments).

Trail Mix Election Predictions

NOW ON CQ POLITICS

• Politics (Un)Seriously: The Daily Show Wraps up the Final Moments of the Campaign
• What the Presidential Polls Say About the States in Play
• PolitiFact -- The truth in politics
• Battle for the Senate: What the Polls Say About the Races in Play
• How Many House and Senate Seats Will the Democrats Gain?
• Guide to the Most Interesting State Ballot Measures, From Abortion to Transportation Crime and Punishment

• The 10 Most Important Jobs to Be Filled Quickly at DHS 
• Panel Offers Array of Suggestions to Overhaul U.S. Health System 
• Groups Increase Ad Buys in Final Election Push
• FCC Poised to Open 'White Spaces' to Wireless 
• Truth-Squadding Obama's and McCain's Last Minute Attacks
• Political Clippings 
• CQ Transcript: Obama on CBS' 'Early Show'
• Pennsylvania Voters Play Key Role in Future of Congress
• Too Many Promises Now = More Disappointed Voters Later 
• Recapping a Campaign With Moments You Couldn't Have Made Up
• CQ Politics Final Balance of Power Scorecards: Dems Likely to Significantly Increase Congressional Majorities

Looking Ahead

Dems Likely to Increase Congressional Majorities

Come back to Trail Mix Tonight 8pm EST:
Craig's Open Thread on Election Results

 

Craig recaps some of the more memorable moments of the 2008 election. (Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)

Craig's final-stretch analysis with MSNBC's Rachel Maddow (11/2)

Averaging the Electoral College predictions submitted by Trail Mix readers, you gave Barack Obama a big win with 345 votes to John McCain's 193 (See Trail Mix Election Predictions).

Is that a landslide? Well, maybe not, considering recent landslides:

• 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson 486 -- Barry Goldwater 52
• 1972: Richard Nixon 520 -- George McGovern's 17
• 1980: Ronald Reagan 489 -- Jimmy Carter 49
• 1984: Ronald Reagan 525 -- Walter Mondale 13
• 1988: George H. W. Bush 426 -- Michael Dukakis 111

Greatest Landslides in History

• 1920 - greatest percentage point margin in the popular vote (Harding 60.3% to Cox 34.1%).
• 1936 - greatest electoral vote difference between winner and opponent (Roosevelt 523 to Landon 8).
• 1964 - highest percentage for winner (Lyndon Johnson 61.1%).
• 1984 - highest number of electoral votes (Reagan 525).

(Source: Wikipedia)

By the way, George Washington was the only president to win the unanimous support of the Electoral College (sorry Corey). Thanks to Jamie for managing our predictions.

Craig on MSNBC Sunday (11/2):
2:00 / 3:00 / 5:00 PM EST (various times)
9:00 PM EST "Rachel Maddow Show"

 

• Barack Obama: 333
• John McCain: 205
• Popular Vote: Obama +6

But don't take my word for it . . .
Check out what Trail Mixers say

Your predictions are welcome until 12:00 AM EST Midnight Tonight (11/1) -- Go to Comments to make your prediction.

Grand Prize: Permanent bragging rights

Thanks to"Wandering Minstrel" Jamie for managing this list!

 

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