Talk about running up the score. Florida now looms as the Democratic firewall on Election Day. Thanks to the disproportionate effect of the economic crisis on the Sunshine State, Republicans are in danger of losing the one state that could block any chances for an Electoral College victory.

I have never hid the fact that I am not objective about my home state. I firmly believe that Florida is the most representative of the nation as a whole. Presidents are more successful if they win Florida. I am impressed and moved that Barack Obama seems to understand Florida's significance -- for winning and for governing.

There is perhaps no better indicator for the outcome of this presidential election than how Obama is pinning down John McCain in Florida. A few facts, courtesy of the Arizona Republic:

• Six of Florida's metropolitan areas ranked in the nation's 20 worst for foreclosures in the second quarter. Broward and Miami-Dade counties had 10,000 foreclosures last month alone.
• In 2004, Democrat John Kerry had 14 offices and about 100 paid staffers in Florida. This year, Obama has 60 offices and about 500 paid staffers.
• From May to September, McCain led in 25 of the 41 polls taken in Florida, with four ties. But since October, Obama has led in 11 of the 14 Florida polls, with seven of them outside the margin of error.
• From Oct. 6 to Sunday, McCain ran 5,702 TV ads in Florida's largest markets, according to Nielsen Media Research. In the same period, Obama ran 18,909 TV ads.
• As he has in most states, Obama has outraised McCain in campaign contributions in Florida. But the $3 million margin, $17 million to $14 million, is among the smallest in the swing states.
• Florida has voted for a Democrat only once since 1980. President George W. Bush won the state by 381,000 votes four years ago.
• For decades, Democrats have led in voter registrations in Florida. This year, they have 650,000 more registered voters than Republicans do. That margin is nearly double the margin the party had in the 2000 and 2004 elections.
• About a quarter of all the state's voters are in southeastern Florida, in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. Democrats, who have a nearly 600,000-voter edge there, must win big to offset the many Republican-leaning counties elsewhere.
• Of the 1.2 million voters who have voted early so far, 640,000 of them are registered Democrats, compared with 361,000 registered Republicans. Historically, the GOP has led in early and absentee voting.

Reported by CQ's Andrew Satter

A poor economy, a demographic shift and a ferocious Democratic ground game make North Carolina a battleground.

At nearly midnight on Wednesday, during Barack Obama's dual appearance with Bill Clinton in Orlando, the Democratic nominee said something that might have been an unintended pun: "Power concedes nothing without a fight."

Obama was talking about the Republicans, but the phrase also applies to the Clintons. In the Democratic Party at the beginning of this campaign, they had the power -- and they certainly did not give it up without a fight.

In the end, a phone call helped finally mend things between Obama and Clinton. Friends of the former president had long told Obama that to ease relations he should make a point of frequently calling Clinton. He loves to chat day or night, they said, even if it's a ten-minute call and even if you don't talk about anything very serious.

It was one of their more serious calls that made a lasting impression on Clinton and paved the way for their first joint appearance on Wednesday. It was telling that during the most personal and persuasive part of Clinton's Orlando talk he mentioned that Obama had called him when trying to decide how to handle last month's economic crisis. Clinton went on to lavish praise on Obama's deliberation and wisdom in handling his campaign's response to the crisis.

Making Clinton his phone pal helped Obama relieve the tensions from taking the power that the Clintons had refused to concede without a fight.

Rule 25 in Craig Crawford's The Politics of Life:
"The Powerful Never Give Up Control - It Must Be Taken Away"

Craig on "Countdown" Tonight
MSNBC (10/30) 8:00 PM EST

 

The nice thing for Barack Obama about having the estimated $5 million for a 30-minute infomercial on seven television networks is that he didn't have to put up with annoying questions from Larry King -- as John McCain was having to do tonight while his Democratic rival maintained message control.

King kicked off his McCain interview on CNN with this question, "Are you hampered, frankly, by the Bush record? Be Honest." For McCain, it pretty much went down hill from there, with skeptical questions about GOP running mate Sarah Palin -- and even a reference to how McCain might die in office.

As if the questioning weren't bad enough for McCain, during a break in the interview CNN's John King stepped up to the electoral map to demonstrate how lousy McCain's chances are. That prompted Larry King to say, "Boy he sure seems up against it."

Not so for Obama, who safely reached far more viewers with a glossy, one-sided production that was simply a video version of his stump message, opening with fields of wheat waving in the breeze and ending with his live speech at a Florida stadium.

Thanks to Obama's decision to bypass federal campaign funds, he doesn't have to worry about the money limits facing McCain, who chose to participate in the public finance system. And the difference is that Obama can end the campaign with his own ads instead of relying on free-media interviews that feature unwelcome questions.

Craig on MSNBC
Tonight 11:00 PM EST

 

Compared to most presidential campaigns in history, Barack Obama's polling leads at this juncture point to a Democratic victory on Tuesday. There are exceptions worth noting.

Ronald Reagan was down by eight percentage points against incumbent Jimmy Carter the week before Election Day in 1980, but came back in the final weekend after doing well in a debate.

George Bush lost a slight lead in the last days of the 2000 campaign, losing the popular vote to Al Gore while winning the Electoral College once Florida was decided in his favor. Bush's stumble was attributed to a late-breaking story about a drunk-driving incident that he had not revealed.

In both cases it took an event to flip the results in the final week. But it might take a really big event for John McCain to come back. Obama has built a firewall among non-traditional voters that seems poised to protect him from such things.

Gallup pollsters find a huge difference in results when comparing traditional voting models to one assuming that Obama will turn out more young voters, minorities and others who haven't shown up in past elections. Obama is seven points ahead in Gallup's expanded model, compared to just a three-point lead in the traditional model.

Craig on MSNBC
Tonight 11:00 PM EST

 

Perhaps the most remarkable development in this unbelievable presidential campaign is that Bill Clinton campaigns today with Barack Obama because he needs it far more than the man he's endorsing.

Obama kicked the Clintons all over town and is on the verge of winning the presidency without the former president or his wife, Hillary. Amazingly, the Clintons now need Obama more then he needs them.

I'll be the first to admit that I thought the Clintons were in charge of this election. I could not have been more wrong. Today in my hometown, Orlando, we will see Bill Clinton eat his crow and bow to Obama's phenomenal success.

So will I.

Excerpts from today's online discussion with CQ Politics Editor Bob Benenson about our projections for next week's elections:

• DEM SENATE GAINS? "Bottom line -- it seems likely that the Democrats will gain in the area of seven Senate seats, and it could be higher... pushing them close to the nine-seat gain they need for a so-called filibuster proof majority of 60 seats."
• DEM HOUSE GAINS? "A 15-seat pickup seems conservative, and a gain or 20 or more is realistic. It looks like just that bad a year for the Republicans."
• ANY DEM SEN SEATS IN TROUBLE? "Only one, Mary L. Landrieu's seat in Louisiana, is facing a Republican challenge that is at all threatening."
• WHICH DEM HOUSE SEATS IN TROUBLE? "Clearly the most vulnerable Democratic seat is in south Florida's 16th District -- and that's because freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney got hit with a sex scandal a month before the election. Dems rated No Clear Favorite include Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Don Cazayoux of Louisiana, Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania, Nick Lampson of Texas and an open seat in north Alabama."
• EFFECT OF TED STEVENS CONVICTION? "It's making only a ripple in the overall political waters. Had the GOP not already been on the defensive over the legacy of President Bush, the troubled economy, where we go in Iraq, and the echoes of other ethics controversies that hurt the party so badly in 2006, the Stevens' conviction might have been the political equivalent of an earthquake."

CLICK HERE to read the full discussion. Bob Benenson began his Congressional Quarterly career in 1981 and has been CQ's elections editor since 1998 as well as a CQ Politics' editor and writer since its founding in 2006. 

Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Wednesday (10/29) 8:30 AM EST
Listen Live: WABC-AM (NYC) / WJZW-FM (DC)
(Simulcast on RFD-TV)

The data points are rolling in for what amounts to a Democratic wave overtaking Capitol Hill and the White House. The CQ ratings team is projecting unexpected Democratic gains in the Senate and House, providing Barack Obama with historic opportunities to enact legislation if he wins the presidency next week.

Senate Races to Watch
House Races to Watch

CQ Election Map

 

Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Wednesday (10/29) 8:30 AM EST
Listen Live: WABC-AM (NYC) / WJZW-FM (DC)
(Simulcast on RFD-TV)

Ask just about any veteran Republican operative what remote chance there might be to save John McCain's sinking presidential campaign and almost to a person their private recommendations include the words Jeremiah Wright. Even at this late date they advocate an aggressive advertising campaign, independent of the McCain campaign, tying Barack Obama to his former preacher's provocative sermons.

But, to the consternation of GOP pros, McCain will not budge from his vow to keep Rev. Wright off the table, and the party nominee has made it clear that he would denounce any independent group that dares to make it an issue. Whether McCain can be persuaded to relent is a test of whether he will do anything it takes to win, even if it doesn't work.

A Wright ad, according to Republican insiders, would go something like this: play footage of Wright saying "God damn America" and describing 9/11 as the "chickens coming home to roost" with a news crawl noting that Barack and Michelle Obama were married by Wright, had their children baptized by him, and that Obama himself sat in the pews at Wright's church for 20 years.

McCain deserves some credit for reigning in his party's more devilish operatives and backing away from the Wright story, although it is difficult to understand why that was off limits and William Ayers was fair game in McCain's mind. Obama's connection to the former Weather Underground activist was tenuous compared to his relations with Wright.

Arguments against using Wright include the probability that the Obama camp has stored away response ads featuring oddball preachers associated with McCain and running mate Sarah Palin.

There is some buzz in GOP circles that ruling Wright out of order was one of those spur-of-the-moment McCain decisions, that he might already regret it but doesn't know how to get out of it and not look foolish. Even if he denounced any independent expenditure for Wright-focused ads, McCain would face intense pressure to get the ads pulled.

Whatever points in political heaven that McCain earns for keeping Wright out of the campaign, it was a fateful decision destined to be cited by other Republicans as a reason for losing.

Republican John McCain is making himself available for extensive one-on-one television interviews far more than Democratic rival Barack Obama. When politicians cling to these free media interviews at the last minute, it's a sure sign of a losing campaign that's badly outspent in paid advertisements.

You know Obama is ahead because he takes no chances with answering such questions. And when his running mate, Joe Biden, got a local television anchor's questions that he didn't like, his campaign banned the woman's Orlando station from further interviews.

It's a sad state of affairs when a race gets so lopsided that only the candidate who probably won't win bothers to answer tough media questions.

Craig discusses the GOP running mate's drag on the ticket with MSNBC's Keith Olbermann ("Countdown," 10/24)

Watching Will Ferrell as George W. Bush on "Saturday Night Live" made me yearn for the real president on the road. His absence from the partisan political scene has left Ferrell's mocking sketch as the freshest impression we have of Bush in campaign mode.

Putting Bush on the campaign trail could be John McCain's final Hail Mary pass. The Republican nominee has done so little to distance himself from his party's president that he is stuck with him anyway. He's damned either way in the polls, with or without Bush speaking up for him, so McCain might as well gamble on Bush's campaigning skills among the Republican base.

At approval rates as low as any Gallup survey since Harry Truman left office at 22 percent, Bush is obviously not wanted by Republicans on the campaign trail. GOP running mate Sarah Palin complained in an NBC interview that "we're up against an unpopular president."

But he is an effective campaigner, could still draw friendly crowds -- if carefully selected -- and his knack for glib words on the stump might just do himself and his party a little good in the final days.

Muzzling Bush made it easer for Democrats to demonize him. Leaving their charges unanswered only made it worse for McCain without a strong and consistent effort on his part to stiff arm the president.

Put Bush on the road to fight back, blast the Democrats on taxes and rally the 30-percent niche of voters who still like him. Sure, it might also rally anti-Bush voters, but Republicans are in desperate times requiring desperate measures.

Even if Bush just barely mentions McCain, he might pull some of those wobbly red states back into the GOP column and help get McCain off defense.

 

Craig on MSNBC today (10/25)
3:00 /4:00 /5:00 PM EST

 

It's getting to be an old story, but this close to Election Day it's worth noting that the latest round of state polls bring more bad news for John McCain. More on Poll Tracker.

Perhaps the best news for Barack Obama is that the Democratic presidential nominee has not had to play much defense in states that comprise the 251 electoral votes won by John Kerry four years ago. That leaves him free to concentrate on the one or two states he needs for 270 it takes to win -- and he's got many potential pickups to choose from. See Election Map.

McCain is pinned down in so many traditionally Republican states that he cannot find a clear and consistent electoral path to victory. Of all the problems with his running mate, Sarah Palin, the worst is that the Alaska governor has not been the firewall in conservative base states that McCain had hoped.

Latest State-by-State Surveys
(More on Poll Tracker)

 

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Tonight (10/24) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST
. . . and on MSNBC Saturday (10/25)
3:00 /4:00 /5:00 PM EST

 

Tired of talking about lipstick on pigs or whether Joe is really a plumber? Get your issues on CQ Politics' guide to the policy debate -- Notes, Votes and Quotes provides a serious and non-partisan examination of candidate stands on the key issues of the day; what they propose to do as president; how they have voted in the Senate, according to CQ's unparalleled coverage of congressional voting behavior; and what they have said about these issues. We'll continue to add new issues until the election, so check back regularly.

A 20-year-old white Republican volunteer says she was mugged at an ATM, claiming that her black assailant carved up her face after seeing her John McCain bumper sticker, and both presidential campaigns get involved.

UPDATE: McCain Supporter Confesses To Making Mugging Story Up

McCain and his GOP running mate, Sarah Palin, reportedly called the Texas woman, who was visiting in Pittsburgh where the incident occurred. In an official statement the McCain campaign says, "We're shaken up by this. It's sick and disgusting."

Barack Obama's campaign also released a statement, saying: "This is a horrendous act of violence. Our thoughts and prayers are with the young woman for her to make a speedy recovery, and we hope that the person who perpetrated this crime is swiftly apprehended and brought to justice."

This is one of those moments, like Obama's encounter with "Joe the Plumber," that could take on a life of its own as the Republican ticket runs out of time for an October surprise.

Politicians who even hint that God is on their side make me squeamish.

Last night in Virginia, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama tipped about a 5.5 on my Cringe Meter, with 1.0 being an ultimate church-and-state separatist like James Madison, and 10.0 being the Holy Crusades.

"I feel like we got a righteous wind at our backs here," Obama told an estimated crowd of 35,000 cheering supporters in Lessburg, Va., on Wednesday night.

Sure, that's well short of God telling him to invade a country. But a "righteous" wind at your back? That is definitely church talk, and of the scariest variety, suggesting that a political candidacy is a divine cause. Beware the politician who thinks God is voting for him.

Which gives me an excuse to repeat one of my favorite quotes -- coach Bobby Knight, asked why he didn't lead his team in prayer before games, said, "Because God doesn't give a damn about college basketball."

John McCain and Barack Obama are dead even when it comes to dumb statements about the economy.

As the financial houses collapsed, McCain said, "The fundamentals of our economy are strong." Not what the economic panic mongers wanted to hear.

But just as everything seemed to be going his way, Obama gets all gummed up defending his tax plans to Joe the Plumber, and ends up saying, "We need to spread the wealth around."

Oops, Democrats who have any experience at running against real Republicans know better than to sound like Karl Marx. Trouble is, Obama has no such experience.

Barack Obama and John McCain grab headlines with speeches and television ads in the campaign's closing days, but what happens "on the ground" could determine who wins tight contests in states like Virginia. CQ's Andrew Satter puts some faces on the statistics in this video portrait of loyal supporters who are working their neighborhoods.

Also on CQ Politics

• In the latest changes to CQ's House Ratings six more congressional contests move toward the Democrats.
• Poll Tracker: Obama Rides Enthusiasm, Stands on Issues to 10 Point Lead
• Politics (Un)Seriously: Joe the Plumber Vs. Joe Six Pack

Massive numbers of new and early voters suggest the emergence of a radically different electorate favoring the Democrats.

Overall, 13 battleground states have already received 3.4 million new registrations as of Oct. 14, compared to 1.8 million new registrations in 2004. More on CQ Politics.

To see how this could improve Barack Obama's chances, consider Gallup's alternative surveys for a traditional turnout versus the expanded turnout that appears to be developing. Turnout of likely voters who look like those who made it to the ballot box four years ago yields a five-point lead for Obama over Republican John McCain, according to Gallup.

But when Gallup models an expanded electorate comprised of more new voters and increased numbers of those who have not showed up in the past, Obama jumps to a nine-point lead. (Each model found 4 percent of those surveyed to be undecided.)

Dramatic increases in registration indicate that Gallup's broader model could be closer to the mark, pointing to an Obama landslide that might look more like a tsunami.

Listen to conventional wisdom for any length of time and you almost have to suspend disbelief to imagine a winning scenario for John McCain's presidential campaign. Polls, pundits and bookies readily give the edge to Barack Obama.

One troubling sign for Obama could be the demographics of uncommitted voters. They look a lot like the older white voters who broke against Obama at the last minute in the final dozen or so Democratic primaries, helping Hillary Clinton beat him by nearly 800,000 votes in the closing weeks of their rivalry.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey found that 18 percent of the voters questioned are uncommitted - meaning they are undecided or say they could change their minds by Election Day. A lopsided Obama loss among those voters could quickly erase his 9-point lead among all voters in this survey, and in key states where his lead is in lower single digits.

The Times/Bloomberg pollsters reported that these uncommitted voters are "overwhelmingly independent, more moderate to conservative, 65 and over, white, Catholic and men."

If such voters in battleground states break for McCain in the final hours as they did for Clinton, this could be a much tighter race than advertised. 

Trail Mix Weekend Posts

Colin Powell's disdain for John McCain's presidential campaign tactics seems to have clinched his decision to vote for Barack Obama, announced today on NBC's "Meet the Press."

In an impromptu post-show session with reporters outside the NBC studios, Powell gave a lengthy, detailed and impassioned response when asked a broad question about the influence of the campaign's negativity on his endorsement. It was a clear indication that McCain's attacks backfired with one of his party's leading figures. Or, such concerns at least provide a principled-sounding excuse for Republicans who want to distance themselves from McCain for other reasons.

Although he cited other reasons for abandoning his own party's nominee, Powell said that the timing "was driven" by McCain's recent attacks on Obama's character. He seemed most fixated on efforts to portray Obama as "un-American."

Powell said he was especially troubled by McCain's attacks on Obama's past relations with former Weather Underground member Williams Ayers. "Suggesting that Obama has some sort of terrorist inclinations was over the top, beyond just good political fighting back and forth."

 

Craig on MSNBC today (10/19)
2:05 / 3:05 / 4:05 PM EST
(subject to change)

Scandal and death in the House race for New York's Staten Island district gives Democrats a rare opening for NYC's only Republican seat. (Reported by CQ's Marie Horrigan, Produced by Andrew Satter)

More CQ on House Races:

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Video Trail Mix asks white voters in southwest Virginia if they think their community is ready for a black president.

If he had said it weeks ago perhaps it would have helped. But John McCain's political deathbed conversion in Wednesday's debate, distancing himself from George W. Bush, came across as nothing short of a last resort.

"Senator Obama, I am not President Bush," McCain said. "If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

Had McCain said that four weeks ago, it might have been a workable line. But this close to Election Day it doesn't work.

What does McCain do now? You can't beat David Gergen's response on CNN last night. "Hell if I know," the former adviser to Democratic and Republican presidents said.

As prime ministers say in Parliament's "question time," allow me to refer to my earlier response - posted here on Trail Mix yesterday morning: "Saving GOP Senators -- McCain's Last Stand?"

CQ Politics: Debate Transcript

Trail Mix Debate Threads

• Joe the Plumber Wins Debate: the McCain vs. Obama empathy contest (see Joe video below)
• Our Refreshing Debate Chat: Trail Mixers watch and discuss from our cyber couch

Obama explains his tax plan to the now famous Joe the Plumber

Republican John McCain effectively hammered Democratic foe Barack Obama on a variety of issues in Wednesday night's presidential debate. But Obama effectively countered every charge.

Like a student who has exhaustively done his homework, Obama managed to commandingly deflect whatever McCain threw at him.

But perhaps the big winner of this final debate is "Joe the Plumber." He showed up at an Obama event recently and McCain saw fit to embrace the man's concerns as his own, prompting an intense empathy contest with Obama for establishing who would help Joe the most.

Since McCain did little to turn around his failing campaign in this debate, maybe he needs to stun the political world by announcing a promise to make Joe the Plumber our next Secretary of the Treasury.

CQ Politics: Debate Transcript

Trail Mixers gathered on the "cyber couch" to watch and discuss the final 2008 presidential debate on the evening of Oct. 15. Click Comments to read our live chat.

Craig talks with MSNBC's Keith Olbermann about whether tonight's debate or tomorrow's David Letterman appearance matters most for John McCain. (MSNBC, 10/14)

Debate Thread Tonight 9:00 PM EST
Join Trailmixers in Comments tonight at 9:00 PM EST for a thread devoted to chatting about tonight's presidential debate.

Times are so tough for John McCain that he might want to start thinking about protecting his party's Senate seats instead of his own presidential campaign.

About the only way an imaginative McCain supporter could try to spin away Barack Obama's widening lead in the polls would be to hope that overconfident Democrats or marginal independents won't bother to vote.

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll gives Obama a 14-point lead. If that gap holds, defying the usual end-of-race tightening, Obama's looming landslide in the Electoral College looks more like a tsunami.

Sometimes when party leaders know that their presidential candidate is toast, they convince him to alter his final-days schedule and re-direct resources to benefit congressional campaigns instead of himself. McCain's incentive to follow such a path would be to prevent Democrats from gaining a 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority.

McCain could help turn out party voters for Senate Republicans who are in tighter-than-expected races, even though they are not in presidential battleground states --such as Gordon Smith in Oregon or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.

It might be time for McCain to think about avoiding an even worse fate than losing his own presidential bid, which would be going back to the Senate as the Republican held responsible for letting Democrats win a super-majority

Now on CQ Politics Poll Tracker:

• Economic Concerns, Backlash Against Attacks Fuel Obama Lead
• Obama Wins the Empathy and Economy Vote
• Eye on the Senate: Latest Round-Up of State Polls

Between Election Day and Inauguration Day, the biggest decision for the president-elect will be choosing his cabinet -- the people who run the executive departments and most prominent agencies in government.

CQ Politics Cabinet Maker lets you assemble these advisers for an Obama or McCain administration, using names chosen by CQ's beat reporters as likely candidates for 18 top positions.

CQ Politics Cabinet Maker

 

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Tonight (10/14) MSNBC 8:55 PM EST

 

Just as voters seem ready to believe that the next Great Depression is around the corner, a little good news surfaces. Gas prices are down. The stock market is up.

In a campaign season economic panic can get out of hand, whipped up by politicians hoping to throw the bums out. If they succeed -- and become the next crop of bums -- it doesn't take long for them to defend the economy's health.

When economic panic runs wild, as it has lately, expressions of confidence are deemed "out of touch" with reality. Republican presidential nominee John McCain paid a hefty price for daring to say that "the fundamentals" are strong.

For all the political gaming of the economy, how about this idea -- politicians, and even presidents, are almost irrelevant to the economy's ups and downs unless really big things are done. Even Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal programs were doing little to get the nation out of depression. Massive federal spending in the manufacturing sector for World War II is what got the job done.

In normal times, Presidents do not really deserve the blame when things go bad, and they do not deserve the credit when times are good.

Although inevitable in tough times, choosing a president based upon their economic plans is a bit like expecting your doctor to fix your car. It might make more sense in this election for voters to think about what presidents can control, like how best to defend the nation against people who want to kill us.

• Economy, financial crisis crowd out other issues
• McCain offers tougher criticism of Bush economics
• Obama calls for 90-day moratorium on foreclosures

Barack Obama's summer landslide is now back in force, after slipping away by summer's end. Republican John McCain is running out of time to again reverse the Democratic tide.

A significantly revised CQ Politics Map now projects a runaway Obama victory, with only three toss-up states: Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. Full Story

CQ Politics Presidential Map
Electoral College Vote Projection:
Obama 311, McCain 174, Toss-up 53

Bad news for John McCain is not difficult to come by these days, but perhaps the worst news is that Charlie Crist is shying away. Florida's Republican governor delivered his state for McCain in the primaries, but now looks for ways to avoid his party's presidential nominee.

Last week, after traveling with GOP running mate Sarah Palin around the state, Crist skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World. Crist hardly sounded enthusiastic when asked about his plans for helping McCain. "When I have time to help, I'll try to do that."

While keeping his options open regarding Palin's future role in Republican politics, Crist appears ready to abandon McCain.

Crist is known in Florida for his spot-on instincts. In the final days of his 2006 winning campaign for governor, at the last minute Crist chose to skip President George W. Bush's trip to Florida even though his expected appearance was on the official White House schedule handed out to the traveling press.

Scaring Crist away could be McCain's worst mistake of all.

Craig on MSNBC Sunday (10/12)
12:00-3:00 PM EST (various times)

Well, I've not seen my name "in lights" on a theater marquee before, so it seemed worth sharing. Had a great time with a lot of political junkies here in Milton, Delaware -- a picturesque small town with lovingly restored historic buildings, smiling people and dogs that seldom bark.

Spoke for about half an hour and then about 40 minutes of questions that ranged from intense skepticism about Sarah Palin to worries about some voters not being ready for a black president. (Yes, this group seemed almost unanimously for Barack Obama - or, at least the John McCain backers, if any, never spoke up.)

And they do love their Joe Biden in these parts, as you might guess. Just the mention of his name provoked applause.

Thanks to the good folks of Milton for a pleasant Friday night -- and one we don't have to be ashamed of on Saturday morning.

Upcoming (11/4):
CQ's Election Impact Conference 

Craig on MSNBC Sunday (10/12)
12:00-3:00 PM EST (various times)

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Video Trail Mix explores the political expediency of Barack Obama's happy talk.

Craig to speak and sign books:
TONIGHT (Oct. 10) at 7:00 PM EST
Milton Theater, 110 Union Street
Milton, DE 19968 (302-684-3400)

Sinking in the polls, at odds with the news media and still scrambling to energize his conservative base, John McCain is going for broke. The Republican presidential nominee just placed his riskiest bid so far in the effort to malign Democrat Barack Obama's ties to a 1960's radical.

At a Wisconsin town hall, McCain dispelled predictions that his campaign would drop references to Obama's past friendship with William Ayers, a former domestic terrorist turned education reformer.

"Look, we don't care about an old, washed-up terrorist and his wife," McCain said. "That's not the point here. ... We need to know the full extent of the relationship."

Later, McCain told ABC News: "It's a factor about Sen. Obama's candor and truthfulness with the American people."

Until now, McCain has let his running mate, Sarah Palin, and others in the campaign pursue this line of attack. By now doing it himself, McCain proves two things: 1) He's desperate, and 2) He'll do anything to win.

McCain's willingness to get down and dirty might be the only chance left for a GOP victory. Casting doubt upon Obama's character is the only card he's got.

While Democrat Barack Obama remains content to keep his economic plans as vague as possible and reap the benefits of his party's structural advantage in this election, John McCain brings up something specific to help homeowners in the current financial crisis and ends up getting hammered for it.

McCain backs a plan to order the government to buy up bad mortgages to cut homeowners' monthly payments. Obama quickly criticized McCain's announcement, saying it would cause the government to lose money by paying too much for bad loans. Never mind that Obama once expressed support for this idea, that many in his own party are behind it, and that provisions allowing it are in the bailout package that Obama voted for.

Obama was quick to attack McCain's backing of a homeowner bailout. But the Democratic nominee has yet to present anything specific and comprehensive that would directly help distressed homeowners. That is because Obama does not feel the need to be specific, secure in his belief that voters are so determined to punish Republicans that he can simply strike a presidential pose and wait for Election Day.

Still, if Obama wins in November, he will have to come up with something that helps troubled homeowners. It looks as though voters will have to wait until after the election to find out what that might be.

Perhaps the most replayed clip from Tuesday's presidential debate was the moment when Republican John McCain referred to Barack Obama as "that one" in a reference to his Democratic opponent's vote to support a Bush White House giveaway to oil companies.

While widely criticized for a seemingly disrespectful comment, McCain's "that one" moment struck me as the result of precise planning. The thrust of the GOP's campaign in these final days is to cast doubt among voters that Obama is "one of us." Calling Obama "that one" is only a slight variation from a McCain television ad that once dismissed Obama as "the one." And perhaps the implicit objectification of a human being -- the essence of racism -- was intentional.

On a lesser note, it does not hurt McCain that the leading clip out of this debate shows him highlighting a vote where he opposed George W. Bush. In this clip his tone comes across nearly as derisive toward Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney as it did toward Obama.

Barack Obama was so polished in Tuesday night's debate that it might work against the Democratic presidential nominee. John McCain was so awkward by comparison that the Republican standard bearer might come across as more genuine.

Although McCain threw many punches, he did not mention his own campaign's recent attacks against Obama's ties to a former domestic terrorist. McCain avoided risk but still might have invited unspoken doubts concerning his opponent. Making sure that Obama's mysterious relations with a 1960's anti-war radical topped the news as the debate started could have placed Obama's slickness in a context that fosters suspicion.

McCain's punch-pulling debate performance recalled how he surprised GOP nomination foe Mitt Romney in their final debate before Florida's primary earlier this year. Although McCain's campaign was blistering Romney's national security experience and conservative credentials in television ads and stump speeches, McCain held back on the most incendiary charges in their Florida debate. And days later McCain essentially clinched his party's nomination by winning the state's primary.

Like Obama, Romney was the more polished candidate in his race against McCain. And like last night's Obama face-off, McCain's Florida debate was also deemed a wash and many thought he lost by not going for the jugular with some of the harsh charges he was using on the campaign stump. But the very next morning McCain was back on the news bashing his opponent in all the ways that he had avoided during the debate.

It was only in the last meaningful Republican debate that McCain really went after Romney -- in California before the Super Tuesday primaries. And that news-making exchange helped finally seal the deal for McCain's nomination, partly because Romney clearly did not see it coming

If the McCain pattern holds, look for him to go for a big finish in his final debate against Obama next week.

AP: McCain renewing harsh criticism of Obama