Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Rise and Shine... 3 in a row?

LOL @ pingpong.....

Still not so sure whether the rural vote can be a game changer this election cycle.....

Craig A+
Question - what if you apply the racial demographics to the rural vote. Bush vs. Kerry is a different battle therefore McCain will not win the prejudiced vote that is in the camp of Obama. So apply that 90% and what can McCain end up with?

Jason.... Early bird gets the worm again

Craig,
However Rachel Maddow is an F - - , From the few times I have watched this attempt at entertainment, She is by far one of the most biased anti McCain and should be removed from television; I thought the ge network was cleaning up the act? I do not think CNN would even take her. Back at you Rachel… To much To Much – You make a lot of people sick !!

Did I just watch the wrong segments?

Ping-
Keep on getting up early! I agree about Ms Maddow. When she first started appearing on Obermann, I thought she was really interesting. Than she started taking unfair and unhinged lessons from him.

I'll watch Craig's clip as soon as Doris Kearn's appearance on Imus is finished.

Please send this to your friends and family!

RFK, Jr.: “Let me tell you about one other of these scams people should know about. If you’re a newly registered voter - and of course the Democrats have done these gigantic registration drives - 12 million people on registration - if you’re a new voter you MUST include your license or some other state I.D. when you come to vote. What that means is that if you’re a college kid (and college kids now - they’re sending in absentee ballots - they’re not going to the voting place, they do everything online or they do everything remotely - they don’t dream of going to the precinct house voting on election day and waiting in a long line) so if they send in the absentee ballot and they don’t include a color copy of their license their vote is going to be thrown into a trash can. And none of these people know this because you have had to read the law in order to know it. So there is no notification for when you fill out your registration form, so all of those 12 million people that the Democrats have registered: those ballots are going to be just thrown out.

http://www.truthout.org/article/rfk-jr-and-mike-papantonio-is-your-vote-safe

Watched Pres Clinton on Greta's show last night. He was really good/interesting. Here's his website for personal involvement in his Global Initiative:
http://mycommitment.org/

p.s. I wish he would stop tinting his hair--it's needlessly vain.

Got to get ready for the dentist. Scheduled for a two hour appt. But, it will be painless.

the Red Sox clinched a playoff berth!........ WOO!..... WOOOOOOO!

Chloe...... the beach was fabulous..... not exactly bathing suit temps..... but that doesn't bother us New Englanders..... read The Story of Edgar Sawtelle as beach reading.... heard it's Oprah's new book..... didn't pay any attention to politics.... but paid plenty to the news.....

Flatus.... after all this dentist stuff is over, your smile will be spectacular!

politics..... I plan on watching the debate Friday night..... maybe it'll rev my engine.....

I don't know about other regions of the country, but I know at least a few rural, midwesterners who are not supporting McCain because they've had enough of George W Bush.

I think McCain does well if he plays fear-mongerer (on many levels) & Vietnam POW. If Team Obama can keep connecting him to Bush, the economic crisis & his drumbeat war, war & more war...and, if they can frame Obama as Kennedy-esque they can keep McCain in check in rural areas.

Oh, and Obama can bring out his secret weapon, he can push McCain out of rural areas. That weapon is Bill Clinton.

Hil'ry & Biden take the rust belt, Bill Clinton takes the corn & tobacco belts and Obama takes the arugula belt (upper, west side).

Tints his hair??? It's silver/white. Maybe something is wrong with your TV. Anyway, if he did tint his hair, wouldn't it be sexist to say that he shouldn't? For that matter, can't it be considered vanity that we all comb our hair, brush our teeth & wear clean clothes, you know, anything other than our natural state?

mornin' all.

Well, with all the wall to wall coverage of the bailout - and I have to say that Paulson at times did not appear to be a happy camper - I haven't seen much of the presidential race in thepast 24 hours. The one thing I did hear was a problem for Obama - and it was from Biden. He was asked by a woman who was an environmentalist why the Obama ticket was supporting clean coal - Biden asnwered "We're no." I was the first to introduce [insert long list of enviro friendly legislative efforts here]. Well, I know that's not what he said in WV, where he talked about supporting clean coal, coal gassification, carbon sequestration and all the other approaches to continued use of carbon based fuel, including coal. In the past, I'd chalk this up to electioneering (imagine a politician being on bothtsides of an issue in 2 different places), knowing that it would get little traction and be gone in a heartbeat - but this time it's been memorialized on YouTube and the conservative commentators down here are having a field day with this.

Don't these guys study their position points and try to stay on message? Couldn't he have just said something like they support all efforts to reduce carbon emissions, but it will take time for the technology to get past the use of coal? God, how hard is this?

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/bill-clinton-gets-rocked-on-le.html#comment-149640

"People have an opinion and as long as they voice it in a civil manner let them be"
Jason
So well said,you inspired me and so early in the morning! I'm going to have to play some Madonna now in honor of your spot on comment...........HA!

Pogo

http://clipmarks.com/clipmark/4B6562A9-9624-4392-8C09-1DBA1F806D35/

How does it feel to live in the stress belt?

Where can I get ahold of some hair to tint? Seems like a small price to pay. LOL I do have to laugh, on a whim over the last month I've grwon a goatee - and apart froma few dark hairs up by the 'stache, it's as white as the driven snow. Maybe I should get some of that Just for Men stuff (Mrs. P actually asked if I planned to) NOT.

KC, LOL. God, they drive me crazy.

Pogo
I agree! Good observations analysis from you always.I enjoy you! Thanks...

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Financial-Meltdown.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Looks like Congress may have reached something like its limit with the scare you to death that if you don't do this the world as we know it will end tomorrow tactics of the Dumya administration. We'll see. Too many blank check requests, I guess.

Ping, you got my attention with that link, so I went after a full article on it.

New Yorkers are neurotic and unfriendly, says Cambridge University 'personality map'

" New Yorkers are likely to be anxious, stressed, impulsive and prone to heart disease and cancer

Researchers created the first ever map of its kind is based on the results of a six year online survey of 620,000 people.

They claim it reveals how certain types of people are more likely to live and flourish in different parts of the country and showed links between personality traits and social phenomenon, like crime rates. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2779683/New-Yorkers-are-neurotic-and-unfriendly-says-Cambridge-University-personality-map.html

tony, thanks, but are you talkin' 'bout my 8:03 or 8:11 comment? :-)

Well, Bush's stewardship of the economy hasn't been lost on foreign leaders.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/world/24nations.html

Looks like the Warren Buffet bailout is having more impact than Shrubian policy

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/24/financial/f040157D29.DTL&tsp=1

"Obama's 10-point deficit is not so shabby."

Unless he still polls high, like he did in the primary.
This debate Friday should start firming things up, one way or the other.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149645

Ping, I agree with you (even though I don't watch anymore, a little bit went a long way). But then, she is an Olbermann offshoot, so I'm not surprised.

LOL pogo, I think he's talking about your 8:03 : )

chloe, WV is No.1 - on the list of Neurotic states!! God almighty, ain't it the truth!?!?!?! (Be nice if they'd link to the report, wouldn't it?)

In Ohio 16 ..the seat I most want to see turn --the Dem is leading by 7 points (up from a deficit in July) but Obama is behind by 6 points in the same district. In Ohio I think the down ticket races will be the ones with coat tails.

Report it? What good would that do pogo. People would just get more neurotic worrying about it. :)

"Personality traits: Anxious, stressful and impulsive. "

now who does that sound like?

Bethy, Of all the reasons for the current situation that you listed, I choose this one: "...we once were blind but now we see - " Good post.

I always look for you when I sign on here. Glad you're still thriving.
My book is nonfiction--about the education system in California
especially high school and State colleges. It's rather polemic and
controversial.
Posted by: prof marcia Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 12:06 AM

I always look for you when I sign on too. Regarding the education system in California, I'd say it's a lot better than Texas, at least in grades 1-12. ( But there are a lot more schools here. No overcrowding.) I'm glad to hear your book will be controversial though - my favorite type of reading. :)

lol

SC......the state too small to be a country, and too large to be an insane asylum.......wasnt on the list?

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149653
Pogo
8:03..I agree.Thanks

Nor was Texas Sturge. It's such a mishmash here, they'd never be able to categorize it.

Chloe

Public schools in california USED to be number one --now we are somewhere around the bottom. When the property tax system was turned on its ear with prop 13 (freezing property tax rates at time of purchase) the schools began to decline --along with all the other services that had been paid out of property taxes.

And Ahnold didn't help matters when he came in by rolling back the car tax another source of local govt funding.

Cal is 46th is school funding

Maureen almost hit the nail on the head in her piece today - but then, her Clinton Derangement Syndrome kicked in and she lost it. Well, except for the last 1/4 of the column, it's a pretty good sendoff of Ms. Sarah.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/opinion/24dowd.html?hp

KGC

I think we should adopt the Buffet plan as a model for our bailout plan. 10% interest on our money and a ton of stock options. Best of all it is a market based plan, that is what they want right?;-p

Jack

chloe - would get neurotic? Too late.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/bill-clinton-gets-rocked-on-le.html#comment-149627

"Sorry I forgot, John McCain always uses women to get what he wants". Posted by: Rezdog | September 24, 2008 12:48 AM

Rez, As opposed to what? Do you know of some shining example?
What a mean thing to say.

For me too pogo.

sturg - don't sulk. Being on the list isn't necessarily a good thing - just look at WV (everybody else does - and it makes us neurotic).

Jack

I think we should adopt the Buffet plan too
the "Let Warren do it Plan.."

How about if Penny Pritzker signs on with some of her ill gotten gains and those other clowns too who made a fortune on the issues that are factors in this crisis.

"In Ohio I think the down ticket races will be the ones with coat tails."

I have wondered the same thing, About places like VA. Can warner pull Obama's butt across the line.

Jack

Senator Shelby doesn't want to help any furrin banks--

"Public schools in california USED to be number one --now we are somewhere around the bottom"

Sorry to hear that Katherine. I've been gone for awhile.

I know it's a lot cheaper to live here (fees, taxes, permits, housing, etc.) and a better economy for the little guy, and we do get a lot better services on many things than we did in California. But sorry to hear that things have gone down hill.

"I have wondered the same thing, About places like VA. Can warner pull Obama's butt across the line."

I think so. I also think utimately there are going to be a lot of hard feelings about the Obama campaign sucking up all the money and not working with local races, as has been previously discussed here.

"Being on the list isn't necessarily a good thing - just look at WV (everybody else does - and it makes us neurotic)."

LOL pogo. Maybe it was a mistake.

Chloe

The fifth largest economy is in the tank!

One other note -- in California Dems are being asked to travel to Nevada but we have some close congressional races here and no ground game. There is no chance McCain will carry California but we could lose some close congressional races/

Senator Richard Shelby - first AL senator elected as a democrat to don his turncoat and do a backflip into the Republican party - and pissed off a whole passle of the steel magnolias who who wore Shelby for Senate buttons and donated their money to get him elected. But I'll say this - I've met Jeff Sessions, have studied Jeff Sessions and know Jeff Sessions, and Senator Shelby, you're no Jeff Sessions....and you rmother falls down on her knees and thanks god every day that you're no Jeff Sessions.

Posted by: pogo Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 8:52 AM

Now I have coffee all over my screen!

"There is no chance McCain will carry California but we could lose some close congressional races"

Katherine, wouldn't you say that California may be the most liberal state in the Union?

It was a real culture shock when we moved here, but things have changed so much over the last 15 years with Texas growing so much. Now it's hard for me to tell the difference. But then, I've changed too.

"Senator Richard Shelby - first AL senator elected as a democrat to don his turncoat and do a backflip into the Republican party "

Gosh, wouldn't that make him a great example of the post partisan era ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Chloe

Not all of California is liberal. The coastal part of the state --yes the inland empire not so much.

I see Congress has adopted the drill baby drill motto

I should have said Southern California. That was where we always lived, closer to the coast. It was a lot different when we'd visit Central or Northern California. I'd forgotten.

get a long little doggie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x3UezyOEkI

Oh, and then there's San Francisco. It has it's own personality.

State per pupil expenditures

http://nces.ed.gov/edfin/graph_topic.asp?INDEX=1

Jack

Chloe

There used to be a lot of talk about dividing Cal into one or more states and of course the obvious was North and South but the funniest were the ones that divided it lengthwise --but they actually reflected reality.

Jack

Everything costs more in California too!
Nice chart

You can compare states education to a national average and there is a link where you can compare states to each other.

http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/states/

If you ever get into an argument about education the dept of ed web site can make you look in the know. Lots of good stuff there.

Jack

Breakfast?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWX_zPhQwgY

Well, KC, had that not happened in the pre-post partisan era (also known as the naked political opportunism era) it might. Actually, my then sister in law was a neighbor of his and was a big fundraiser and huge supporter of him when he first ran in '86 (and ironically unseatred the Repug incumbent) and then for his re-election in '92. She was also on the AL state democratic committee. She refused to even talk to him (other than to give him a piece of her mind) and wanted to claw his eyes out when he switched parties in '94. I doubt that she would even talk to him to this day - them steel (some say iron) magnolias can carry a grudge for darn near forever.

Thanks for all that good information Jack!
I bookmarked them.

But you guys are there shockers possible and by that I mean...States that have bene exceptionally blue or red, is it possible for them to change colour?

Mom and Dad say, Fla is a cliffhanger as usual...... Lots of folks opting not to vote in thier part

@tonyb...If ya play: "Devil wouldn´t recognize you", I would be glad. LOL

It's Time To Act

"Hubris and hypocrisy aside, it's important to recognize the legislation for what it is — a rescue, not a bailout, of the financial system. Taxpayers will not be left "holding the bag." The government will buy these mortgage securities at 20 or 30 cents on the dollar and eventually sell them at higher prices.

How much higher, and how far into the future, no one knows. But even if the government doesn't make a profit in the end, the loss will be nothing like the trillion dollars that fear mongers and doomsayers throw around.

In fact, the plan is very close to the one set up in the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1990s to dispose of failed thrift assets."
http://ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=307062470860000

On those education stats, one thing that stands out. America doesn't have an education problem but the American south does. Which has made me wonder about Urban schools that are predominately AA if their low scores are more from a southern attitude toward education problem then it is an AA problem.

Jack

"In fact, the plan is very close to the one set up in the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1990s to dispose of failed thrift assets."

That is a bald faced lie, (not you Chloe)
The assets that the government had in the s&l were from failed S&L's that the government guarantteed. It included good assets and bad. in this case we are just taking on bad assets from companies that we allow to out and do it all over again.

Jack

Jack, There are so many variables.
I always question knowledge tracking and testing too.
Seems it's more of a poverty issue than about race.
And expectations.
But then, what do I know.

I suspect that there may be a "reverse Bradley effect" out there and this rural vote may be it. There is a generational change in this election and a lot of those born before 1940 are deceased since the last presidential election, and a lot of people born before 1990 will be voting for the first time.

These younger voters have been raised in a much different climate with all sorts of influences outside of their cultural group. They may echo parents and grandparents attitudes in public or polls, but at the ballot box casting a vote for a black man won't bother them even a little bit.

When combined with the boom generation seniors who were civil rights activists, there is a Democratic wave building. If Obama has the ground game he is remored to have, getting these folks to the polls should be a snap.

Jack,
that 9:44 post was in response to your 9:38 post.

I wasn't sure what to think about that article regarding the bailout. Just thought the outcome looked a lot rosier.

'journalists start your skepticism" re:bailout
http://poynter.org/forum/view_post.asp?id=13611

Warren Buffett to CNBC this morning on the bailout & his investment in Goldman.

He made if very clear that he would not have bought
anything if he was not confident Congress would do
the 'right thing' and approve the financial bailout proposed by Paulson.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19206666

Hi Coreen

Have you had a chance to looks at the "homeowner assistance" programs? Will it help people you have been working with?

"I wasn't sure what to think about that article regarding the bailout"

Chloe

What I saw in the editorial was pure fear on the part of the writer. He may not be as diversified as he thought and has his tail caught in a crack. It looked this was really personal for him, no an exercise in rational thought.

Jack

Well Coreen, At least we know that Warren Buffet thinks it's the right thing for Warren Buffet.

Juan Williams of NPR was asked yesterday, what were Obama's achievements? Juan said with enthusiasm; "He ran a great campaign!" That's it? That's supposed to fill my heart with giddy assurance?

With an aggressive resurgent Russia, combined with an Iran that will not be reasoned, appeased or denied from its pursuit of nuclear weapons, leaving in question whether Israel will strike preemptively? It seems fitting that the Dems would put forth so weak a candidate as Obama, evident to both his supporters and detractors. Obama lacked the "inner toughness" to stand up to Hill or Bill's criticisms without resorting to his infamous default position of playing the race card. Nor can I forget his recent pettiness when Obama personally attacked Palin for two weeks because "she got under his skin."

The Dems meanly equipped their knight-errant, sending him off, an innocent abroad, lacking experience, judgment, but most of all strength. His baldric contains but a worn bugle, his sword replaced by a wordsmith's tongue and nothing more. Regarding Obama's chivalric deeds, sadly "your likable enough," is all that is remembered in the minstrels sorrowful ditty.

Yet as I write this N. Korea is going to restart its nuclear reactor, and just yesterday asked the the UN's IAEA, to remove the seals and surveillance equipment. Iran's Ahmenajad and Venezuela's Chavez are cat walking down the runway, hips undulating while Hezbollah is now operating in Venezuela, and the crowds rife with anti Americanism. Add to this sublime confection the Russian fleet is making its presence known by harboring its fleet in Venezuela, and all this is exacerbated by the serendipity of our financial meltdown.

Dickens gave his readers an equitable choice but we alas have but one, it seems that in these, "the worst of times," the Dems present us with a singularly milquetoast candidate. I would complain little if Obama had displayed any of Hillary's strong leadership qualities, her experience, and above all else her exemplary fortitude. Obama who by guile and device did in ignominy win, and many had a hand in it, but none more resourceful than the ignoble J. Clyburn himself.
Obama, my namesake, my moniker, the Dems milquetoast, he does it proud.

PUMA/Clintons4McCain "Obama, a weak man for tough times."

toast

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149714

Jack, What do you see as the answer?

KGC

Here's the original Telegraph article on the "stress" states with the rankings for the highest and lowest states in each category.

It figures that California is the "most open" ... Privace, what privacy? :-)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2779683/New-Yorkers-are-neurotic-and-unfriendly-says-Cambridge-University-personality-map.html

Well Coreen, At least we know that Warren Buffet thinks it's the right thing for Warren Buffet.

Chloe...that's the truth!

ABC/Washington Post has Obama ahead by 9 points nationally.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092308.html?sid=ST2008092303897&s_pos=list

Jamie

I saw the study...I was just giving Pogo a hard time. Life in the stress belt.

Off to work for me...I have a huge debt to pay and I have been living relatively debt free for years....how did that happen?

Juan Williams of NPR was asked yesterday, what were Obama's achievements? Juan said with enthusiasm; "He ran a great campaign!" That's it? That's supposed to fill my heart with giddy assurance?

So did W

Jamie regarding the Bradley effect I think Craig is right, I think the polls are generally accurate, that being said I do feel if Obama was white he would be leading by another 5 points in the polls.

"It seems fitting that the Dems would put forth so weak a candidate as Obama"

Toast,
I think that weakness is the very reason the 'Party" pushed him. He's just what 'they' wanted. He's malleable. There's a lot of important people pushing his buttons and promoting their agendas. He's their dream come true. He never say's much of anything except 'change'. An empty slate. See what you want.

"Well Girls; Chloe, Carol, Blondie, Prof Marcia, Bethy;
I guess CHANGE works. If I understand correctly we've all switched from msnbc to Fox, to find fair and balanced - now that's what I call CHANGE..................."
Posted by: politicallypissed | September 24, 2008 2:52 AM

Ha! Rita, you're right!

Psst toast,

She lost and is not the nominee and if McPalin wins , she will lose in 12 too. Sorry :(

If Obama were white, he wouldn't even be there.

The human cost of the economic downturn

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20080924/NEWS/809240366/1350&title=Laid_off_Petaluma_official_kills_self

Rez don't confront the Clintonista with facts, facts upset them.

Jack,
If I understand it correctly (which i may not) all of those mortgage backed securities include the good with bad bundled together. If we could somehow separate the two that would be great, plus we would know the extent of the problem which we can't and don't.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149697

Jack,

That map says it all about California. One of the most expensive states in which to live with one of the lowest expenditures per student.

Katherine,

To date have not seen how exactly the federal homeowner's assistance program will work for those in or near default--I would expect that shortly we will receive some of the working critieria.

As you know, some of us believe that the best way
to assist stressed homeowners would be to provide
for bankruptcy judges to have the authority to modify
loan terms, however, the July legislation failed to include such a provision.

Currently the bailout alternative provisions includes such a provision--but it is not supported by the banking industry at all--and if I had to take a bet--it will most likely not be included in the bailout legislation (which as you know, I do believe
Congress will agree to very soon--they really are between a rock & a hard place--they dare not leave WA without doing something)

In the meantime, there has been some limited co operation from some of the lenders with clients who are in default, however, it is difficult to find the actual
department that can modify loan terms.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149730

Brian,

Don't call them Clintonista. I'M a Clintonista. That mens supporting her issues.

"If Obama were white, he wouldn't even be there."

if , ands, buts, maybes, woulda coulda shoulda. LMAO

generally accurate, that being said I do feel if Obama was white he would be leading by another 5 points in the polls.
---briannyc

Out respect and affection for you Jamie I'll from now on refer to them as the "Post rational"

Coreen

"in the meantime, there has been some limited co operation from some of the lenders with clients who are in default, however, it is difficult to find the actual
department that can modify loan terms."

Why am I not surprised.

Out respect and affection for you Jamie

ROFLMAO

Until you say something he disagrees with.

men = clintonistos :-)

This is an interesting poll, while it only shows Obama ahead by 1 nationally when you look at the issues you can easily see where this election is going.

http://media.mcclatchydc.com/smedia/2008/09/23/19/644-20080923-POLL-Ipsos.large.prod_affiliate.91.jpg

mens = means

Chloe

First, with the Buffet deal yesterday we get an idea of the value the market places on the bailout. It came with cash and stock options to about 14% apr return on money. Anything we put in that yields less than that is a government subsidy. (not that a subsidy is bad in every case)
I don't want us to just take on all the bad debt for the world or even selected companies on wallstreet. What is needed is to free up some of their money so they can make more loans. Buying part of their loan portfolio would do this. The problem is setting a price and determining the quality of the portfolio. We should buy a representative sample of the portfolio not just the junk.
The easiest way to do this is just buy part of the company.
I like the Buffet plan. He put in cash in the form of nonvoting stock with a guaranteed rate of return. The advantage of this is in the long run it costs us nothing and will make a bit of a profit.. Borrow money at the cheap government rate and loan it out at a higher rate.
With the loan you can also attach all kinds of strings and conditions.
The other problem that needs to be addressed is that nobody knows for certain what any of these assets are worth. Set up an agency to evaluate them, with guarantees built in.

OK , I've solved that crisis.

NEXT

Jack

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149720

BFD. The polls are all over the friggin' place. Gallup has it at 3, IPSOS at 1 and Rasmussen at 2. Gallup and Rasmussen had Obama up by 8 & 6 3 weeks ago, just after the convention.

Two weeks ago, McCain held a substantial advantage among white voters, including newfound strength with white women. In the face of bad economic news, the two candidates now run about evenly among white women, and Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points.

In fact, that understates the turnaround. If you check the PDF of the poll results, you see that McCain had a 16-point lead among white women in mid-June, just after Hillary Clinton ended her campaign; Obama is now up by 2.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/24/83-percent-of-americans-t_n_128822.html

Landslide a coming!

Poll finds 18 percent of voters undecided
"A recent AP-Yahoo News poll found that 18 percent of likely voters are up for grabs - undecided or willing to change their minds -"

"Simply put: Most of these voters are looking for a better life and a leader to help make it happen - and most haven't found what they seek in Obama or McCain."
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080924/D93D1RFG0.html

Jack, you don't really think that banks would accept as borrowers the same onerous conditions they impose on as lenders do you?

Here is your answer to the rural vote

NRA Begins Push To Tarnish Obama On Guns

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/23/politics/main4472798.shtml?source=mostpop_story

By JOHN BRESNAHAN | 9/16/08 4:41 AM EDT
Text Size:
Barack Obama and Harry Reid
Harry Reid and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer had hoped at one point to get as much as $10 million from the Obama campaign.
Photo: AP

Earlier this month, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid made a personal appeal to Barack Obama: Help me grow the Democrats’ Senate majority by sharing some of the $77 million you’ve got in the bank.

Obama’s campaign said no.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13485.html

Chloe that really isn't it good news for McCain, if he hasn't sold that group yet very likely he won't. The current climate heavily favors Obama. Also do we know if that's likely or registered voters? If it's likely voters it's really bad news for McCain. Another thing that is going to severely hurt McCain is he's got a major scandal starting to break in Rick Davis which is going to be very easy for Obama to tie back to the Keating 5 scandal. Don't be surprised if you hear Obama mention the Keating 5 on Friday night, Obama is definitely trying to push McCain to the edge so America can see that famous temper of his.

Seriously Chloe there is no good news in any of the polling for McCain. And that's a good thing!

'OK , I've solved that crisis."

Thanks Jack,
We need some common sense guys like you in office.

The Power of Negative Thinking

"GREED — and its crafty sibling, speculation — are the designated culprits for the financial crisis. But another, much admired, habit of mind should get its share of the blame: the delusional optimism of mainstream, all-American, positive thinking."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/opinion/24ehrenreich.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

bowman - about a week or two ago I mentioned that when someone mentioned WV as being competitive, the NRA ads had not come out yet - they still haven't, but my Repug friends who are tied in with the state Repug party say they're on the way.

"Poll finds 18 percent of voters undecided"

Did I say this was good news for someone?

Toast,
I think that weakness is the very reason the 'Party" pushed him. He's just what 'they' wanted. He's malleable. There's a lot of important people pushing his buttons and promoting their agendas. He's their dream come true. He never say's much of anything except 'change'. An empty slate. See what you want.

Posted by: chloe Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 10:04 AM
Chloe,

All the above is lamentable but true.

regards, toast

"Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points." -BNYC

Ripped off from the comments section on that piece:

"The black man is polling well with white women?? Someone call the GOP, they need to release some free copies of D.W. Griffiths "The Birth of a Nation". lol

Interesting comments on the Center for Rural Strategy's latest poll. I am guessing McCain will win the rural vote, but it will be much closer than the typical Republican gets. McCain is not popular in much of the Midwest because of his nonsensical stand on Ethanol. Many family farmers and small town residents have seen the benefits both direct and indirect of the bio fuels industry. In the minds of most Midwesterners his approach would gut the industry and ruin many rural communities. All other issues aside, this is the deal breaker for the many farmers who support ethanol and other alternate energy facilities as well as those who are receiving a much higher income because they have a local market for their product.

Well it is good news for Obama Chloe, as I said in the current climate the majority of the voters who do actually show up to vote (hence my question about likely versus registered voters) will break for Obama. McCain's campaign is falling apart.

I didn't mean to see what you wrote Brian, and I try to always avoid it.

I've said before that I see the world as 'good vs. evil'.
I don't confuse that with 'right vs. wrong'.
You seem to see it as 'them vs. us'. Therefore, you 'create' a lot of enemies.
Leave me out of it.

chloe, the world through Obama colored glasses, I guess. The race is FAIAP ties when you look at all the polls. The vaunted Gallup daily has closed back to within the MoE after 4 days of Obama holding a lead outside the MoE. And the Battleground tracking poll - 1000 likely voters - shows McCain ahead by 2 points. Given the economic news that is out there it is astounding that Obama's lead is shrinking instead of growing. I fault the campaign staff.

Chloe if you don't want your post commented on I suggest you trying IMing instead of blogging, and I too see the world in terms of good versus evil, Obama good, McCain evil.

Today's post on the BackChannel Blog

Youtube moments, by unlikely burrito

http://clistersbackchannel.wordpress.com/

Needle the thread

Today on blistersyeahbutchannel

We ask the question - is there lint in your belly button

And BTW Chloe that good vs evil remark, very George Bush, and look where that got us!

pogo,
When I look at it from your point of view, I hope Obama wins.

From my point of view, I could never vote for him. But I'm sure he'll never notice.

The outcome is still in the air, from where I sit.
However, the debate Friday will probably change things.
And that debate may signal what will happen in the following debates. So Friday may be an important day.

(The the Biden/Palen debate may affect it too).

I am exercising my right to blog and commenting on this post:

Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 10:55 AM

This poster is an idiot .

Did I say anything about commenting?

Appropos of nothing, James Grant has an excellent piece about the dollar in today's times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/opinion/24grant.html?hp

Debates change things? I don't know. Most people think John Kerry won all the debates.

Pogo

I expect that the bankers probably feel the same as I do about conditions. But when you've got bad credit then you can't be real choosy. That is their problem right now, nobody wants to loan money to them.

Jack

Pogo

Except for the post convention bounce( that McCain won until reality caught up with him) the daily gallup has been the same all summer with a very monotonous wave to the graph Obama rises one week a couple of point the falls for a week to a tie then it curves back up.

Jack

"I too see the world in terms of good versus evil"
Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 10:55 AM

" that good vs evil remark, very George Bush, and look where that got us!"
Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 11:00 AM

Obama good, McCain evil.
Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 10:55 AM

(Obama) US vs. (McCain or any other) Them.

for jason to be glad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Xqf4XhEhuo

"Debates change things? I don't know. Most people think John Kerry won all the debates."

oops, there goes that idea. :)

Pogo

I think the differences between polls are the filter they use for likely voter. That is the only thing that could explain the large difference between th daily gallup and the new wapo poll that has Obama in the low 50's

Jack

Jamie,
I trust your keen observation skills and general knowledge :)

Check out Part I of the Daily show with slick, and at 3:06 watch his RH thumb; is that signs of early Parkinson's.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/24/bill-clinton-talks-econom_n_128885.html

Anyone who believes that self-expression is an excuse for delivering insults is a menace to society.

--Judith Martin, Miss Manners

chloe - my point of view (the judge appointment one, I hope)? We see eye to eye on a lot of stuff, and I'm certainly like you in one respect - whether I vote for Obama or not (and I will) it won't really be noticed or matter in the end. I'm trying to watch the polls and the latest reporting on the progress of the race as dispassionately as I can muster. As long as there are enough states as tossups that can swing the election ot one or the other, the national polls are interesting and may suggest trends in voters' attitudes, but in reality they don't mean sh*t. Tell me what's really happening in OH, PA, MI, IN and IL, and you (royally of course, not you personally) can get my attention. I have a pretty good idea how much stock to put in amateur pollwatchers' analysis of a couple of cherrypicked national polls as indicative of anything and put exactly that much stock in those analyses.

Chloe remember the good ol days when for Brian it was just HRC= evil.

Jack

Yep patd....And very actual this song nowadays.... :-)

Pogo

If you would send me a buck then I could be a professional observer. Then my opinion would have validity.
;-0

Jack

LOL Jack.
Those were the good old days.

Jack,
That, and the inherent error introduced by polling 1000 to 2000 people nationwide to suggest what 50 million will ultimately do when they close the curtain and fill in the block, pull the lever, push the button or punch the hole wrong.

Wow Chloe you figured out I'm partisan, you get a gold star for the day.

Jack, I'd be happy to - and I'd expect to get what I paid for - a little less (and shrinking quickly) than the nothing I pay for and get now. LOL

Jack, just saw your Gallup post. Yep, That's a good description of what Gallup has done - and generally (laike almost all the tracking polls) has done it within the MOE most of the time.

Psst toast,

She lost and is not the nominee and if McPalin wins , she will lose in 12 too. Sorry :

Posted by: Rezdog Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 10:06 AM

Rezdog,
I certainly don't doubt your reasoning, perhaps your even prescient, and like many here have all but buried Hillary, but I will gladly praise her even if I have to sing it to her bones.

regards, toast

I have written before how Security matters is my top issue, and believe the dems are too passive, or worse, dismissive when talking about security. I believe the next administration may well face a middle east crisis, in the escalating tension from Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Yet let us for comity sake discuss the Middle East situation - putting Iran aside, the regions religious differences, the Israeli /Palestinian issue, middle east oil, put all this off the table, yet removing all these contentious issues would only ameliorate some of the present dangers. It would not end the grave and looming threats that region faces, a powder keg issue that no one is talking about. The Dead Sea is dying, the Jordan River has gone dry, and we can do nothing to stop it, say the experts. Yitzhak Rabin, who won the Nobel Peace Prize, an Israeli dove who lived through 5 Isaeli wars said just before his tragic death that; "the next war would be fought over water."

Who would have thought that WATER, both copious and rare could be the catalyst for that 3 AM call, the answer is simple, Hillary. She won my respect, my support, and by any fair measure on foreign policy she is closer to McCain than that near invertebrate Obama. I included the word "near" deferentially.

We could joust about the Supreme Court, important yes, but it pales by comparison to the ever shifting dangers we face. I am no neocon, my disapproval of Bush/Cheney is equal to most here, but I am no Dennis Kucinich, either.
Hillary's 3 AM call best exemplified that we live in a dangerous and uncertain world and our next Commander In Chief must understand my concerns as well as Hillary.

PUMA/Clintons4McCain - "Obama, a weak man for tough times."

toast

The Early Word: The Freddie Chronicles

With the fiscal crisis now framing the presidential race and the influence of money and lobbyists on the candidates and their campaigns an ever-present concern, the McCain campaign is being buffeted by the news that a consulting firm owned by Rick Davis, who is managing Senator John McCain’s presidential bid, was being paid $15,000 every month since 2005 by Freddie Mac, the troubled mortgage lender.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/the-early-word-the-freddie-chronicles/

And away we go!

HA!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/us/politics/24davis.html?hp

McCain's view of what "several years" is is curiously short.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149775

Rez,

It's possible, but he used that hand quite forcefully with no indication of tremors later in the interview, so it may have been the way his hand was resting on his knee right then that put pressure on a nerve.

Given the very invasive surgery that he had, I would keep an eye out for shortness of breath, low short coughs, and sign of tremors. His complexion is still too florid but that could be the rosacia rather than a symptom.

I presume his doctors have him on all sorts of medication. Life expectancy is 10 to 15 years following surgery, but he does seem active and avoiding common depression which is a good sign.

http://www.uihealthcare.com/topics/medicaldepartments/surgery/endstageheartdisease/index.html

haha, Biden nailing McCain on the "Spain remark"

Jack, you made that comment about the good old days.
That got me thinking about 'These are the good old days'.
And so I had to come back and find Carly Simon's old song with those lyrics.
I haven't heard it in years. Good stuff.

Carly Simon - Anticipation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hruKnbxAsrw

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/obamas-amazing-rural-opportuni.html#comment-149786

If security is your concern, you should be listening to the Biden speech right now. He has outlined in so many ways just how dangerous and wrong McCain has been for years on the Middle East, Russia, and Eastern Europe.

No one can guarantee absolute safety, but no one knows the world much better than Biden which was why he was my candidate before he dropped out.

History teachers nail Biden on FDR remark

“Part of what being a leader does is to instill confidence, is to demonstrate what he or she knows what they are talking about and to communicating to people … this is how we can fix this,” Biden said.

Biden’s spokesman, David Wade, countered: “I’m proud to say that we Democrats aren’t experts at Herbert Hoover depression economics like John McCain and his pals. From Franklin Roosevelt to Bill Clinton, we just get elected to clean up the economic mess these Republicans leave behind.”

chloe, and who could forget Mary Hopkins' Those Were the Days?

http://www.jacquedee63.com/thosewerethedays.html

(Sorry, but I can't link YouTube.)