John McCain is on the road to losing this presidential campaign unless his running mate, Sarah Palin, saves the day for him in Thursday night's debate. The past couple of weeks could not have been worse for the Republican nominee, meaning that he needs the Palin mojo to bring him back.

About the only thing working in McCain's advantage is the buyer's remorse that voters are demonstrating to pollsters these past few weeks. Whenever someone gets out front, survey respondents back off.

Thus, the timing is good for Palin's debate against her counterpart, Joe Biden. Democratic nominee Barack Obama is riding high in the polls, which means that if he hasn't closed the deal then voters are ready to take another look at the GOP ticket.

How did anyone think the public would get behind something sold as a bailout of Wall Street multi-millionaires? Make it a bailout of homeowners, and you would have something that could pass in Congress.

But to do that, the Bush administration needs to put something in the package that might actually help homeowners -- like giving bankruptcy judges the power to order modifications of usurious loans. Or maybe some protections against exorbitant credit card interest.

If this bailout ends up as a better deal for average homeowners in crisis, Monday's turmoil in Congress will have been a very good thing.

George W. Bush's White House has gone belly up, not unlike those big banks that failed. The president's political credit was revoked today as his financial bailout failed to pass in the House of Representatives.

This is what happens to a president who lied to Congress to start a war, among other things -- even if this time he is proposing the best thing for the country.

House Defeats Financial Industry Bailout Bill

Now on CQ Politics (Un) Seriously:
In honor of the dealmaking over a Wall Street bailout, we thought it only fitting to bring you a scene from "Wall Street," the movie ... Greed is Good 

Now on CQ Politics Poll Tracker:
Public Disapproves of Politicians' Bailout Plans

Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Tuesday (9/30) 6:30 AM EST
WABC-AM (NYC) / WJZW-FM (DC)
(Simulcast on RFD-TV)

 

As the dust begins to settle on whatever Washington is doing to bail out the big finance corporations, let's look back at John McCain's weird theatrics in the days leading up to last week's debate. What was his point?

Given how the Republican presidential nominee said nothing during the debate about his threats to skip it, we can rule out any plans on his part to somehow use his brinksmanship against Democratic nominee Barack Obama during their faceoff on Friday night.

Assuming McCain had a strategy for nearly de-railing the debate -- and maybe there wasn't one -- perhaps he was just messing with Obama's head, trying to disrupt the opponent's plans for three days of preparation. If so, McCain got an assist from fellow Republican George W. Bush, who summoned both party nominees to the White House as Obama was trying to prep.

If the objective was to rattle Obama, it did not work. Although Obama is a methodical guy who does not relish chaos -- a trait that the Republicans might have been hoping to exploit -- he seemed unflappable on stage.

In retrospect, McCain's pre-debate drama was just plain silly and a pathetically hysterical attempt to dominate the campaign narrative for a couple of news cycles.

Video: In Southern Va., Undecided Voters Still Unsure After 1st Pres. Debate (Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)

John McCain's relentless assaults on his opponent as "naïve" and "dangerous" might resonate with some voters, but Obama did not come across as either. A work in progress, perhaps -- but not as a scary neophyte.

What Obama lacked in foreign policy chops against McCain was overcome by his luck in how the economy forced its way into the debate at the very beginning. With the credit crisis sidelining international news these days, the moderator opened the debate with a discussion of the economy.

Obama did a better job of empathizing with middle-income voters, while McCain seemed bogged down in legislative pin ball.

Still, McCain stayed in the driver's seat for most of the debate, forcing Obama to play more defense than offense.

In reality, McCain narrowly won this debate. In the more important contest for expectations-based perceptions, Obama eked ahead.

Video: In Southern Va., Undecided Voters Still Unsure After 1st Pres. Debate (Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)

Barack Obama happened upon a metaphor in Friday's debate that sums up a telling difference in style between the Democratic nominee and Republican standard bearer John McCain.

When McCain called for a federal spending freeze on nearly everything except the defense budget, Obama called that "using a hatchet when you need a scalpel."

That seems precisely how McCain wants to come across in this campaign - as the hatchet man who will break apart the entrenched powers that be. Toward that end, the Arizona senator seldom skips an opportunity for drama, whether in picking a running mate who provokes ridicule from Washington elites or in upsetting the status quo with a threat to skip last night's debate until a financial bailout was underway.

Obama draws legions of supporters with clarion calls for change, but in this general election campaign he is the more measured of the two candidates. The Illinois senator's training as a lawyer often comes forward as he slices through issues with the precision of a surgeon's scalpel.

When it comes to choosing a hatchet or a scalpel for the nation's woes, voters probably split evenly - which could be why the race is so close.

Say what you want about John McCain's pre-debate theatrics, the Republican presidential nominee is in the driver's seat. He might be going off a cliff, but he is in charge.

Or as they say at the raceway, we can't tell if he's headed for the checkered flag or the wall.

Even when under a hailstorm of criticism, sometimes the campaign that everybody is talking about is the one setting the agenda.

Democrat Barack Obama's job in tonight's debate will be to avoid spending most of his time reacting to McCain -- and get on offense.

Video Trail Mix wanders downtown Roanoke for chats with small business owners about what's on their minds. (Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)

ROANOKE, VA -- Talk to people "outside the beltway" and it doesn't take long to discern that most are barely interested in what typically fascinates the political world. The process and mechanics of campaigns that keep junkies buzzing are little more than distant thunder in places like southwest Virginia.

In an afternoon of chats with Roanoke small business owners, for instance, no one even brought up the Washington food fight over John McCain's threat to skip tonight's debate. Even McCain's business-related reasoning -- his plan to instead focus on the economic crisis -- was not upper most in the minds of these local entrepreneurs, interviewed for today's Video Trail Mix (click "Play Video" in screen above).

So many Americans are weary of politics because the repetitive gotcha games and tactical brinksmanship come across as little more than intramural competition for a really boring sport. They'd rather watch fleas wrestle.

Discussions with the average Washington politico inevitably center on process details such as polling nuances, dirty tricks, or who's about to get fired from somebody's staff.

A far different -- and more substantive -- range of topics emerge when you walk around a town like Roanoke and talk to someone who runs a small oil company, a print shop, a jeans store and a vegetable stand. Here, the discussions center on locally pressing matters such as the rising number of customers who can't pay their heating bill, the rapidly declining number of small businesses -- and rumors about the closing of a nearby garment factory.

Who might lose their job in the next plant closing easily trumps talk about who's up and who's down in the world of campaign insiders.

Video Trail Mix gets reaction to John McCain's debate pullout threat in a visit to The Coffee Pot, a bluegrass roadhouse in Roanoke, Va. (Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)

The John McCain campaign sometimes reminds me of a well-worn maxim for lawyers: If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and argue like hell.

Threatening to boycott Friday's debate in favor of full time focus on the nation's financial meltdown is one way to at least temporarily upset the course of a race that isn't going your way. Whenever things aren't going well for McCain he comes up with something to change the narrative.

So much is stacked against McCain. Republicans are politically on the run. His party's president is unpopular. And the sudden national obsession with big-finance economics is keeping the GOP nominee on the defensive, even threatening to ensare his own campaign manager for doing business with a troubled company.

Pounding the table is about all that's left for McCain to do. And, as sometimes happens for lawyers who resort to theatrics in a tough case, arguing like hell might work.

Going back to the Democratic primaries, predictions abound that Barack Obama could be undone by voters in small towns and rural areas. But a new survey suggests otherwise.

Sure, John McCain leads among rural voters by 10 percentage points in the poll released this week by the nonpartisan Center for Rural Strategies. That's actually great news for Obama.

Four years ago, Democratic nominee John Kerry lost the rural vote to George W. Bush by 19 points. So, Obama's 10-point deficit is not so shabby.

Bush's White House victories are largely due to his lopsided vote in small towns and rural areas found in most crucial states. And the McCain camp is clearly trying to repeat Bush's successful efforts at painting the Democratic opposition as alien to small-town culture. GOP running mate Sarah Palin is charged with shoring that up.

There is still some good news for McCain. At this juncture in 2004, Bush led this segment of the electorate by 13 points. Statistically speaking, that is no different than McCain's current 10-point lead. The test is whether McCain can match Bush's final-days surge among these voters to a 19-point lead.

If McCain can double his support in rural America by Election Day, it might be all he needs for victory. If not, Obama is doing well enough in small towns to win the White House.

Craig will be at the Coffee Pot in Roanoke VA
Tonight (9/24) Interviewing Voters 8PM EST

 

Comedian Chris Rock nailed it on "Late Night with David Letterman" shortly after Bill Clinton's appearance on Monday's show: "Is it me, or did he not want to say the words Barack Obama?"

Clinton is launching a barrage of television appearances and campaign speeches supposedly on behalf of the Democratic nominee, but, as Rock also noted on Letterman's CBS show, the former president seems more interested in talking about his wife, Obama's former rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"Hilary ain't running! One of those guys needs to tell him," Rock told Letterman. "I love Hillary but she lost. She got a lot of votes. She lost. The Patriots got a lot of points too, but they lost to the Giants."

AP Poll: Obama Struggling to Win Over Clinton Voters

Earlier Monday, on ABC's "The View," Clinton also did no heavy lifting for Obama's race against Republican John McCain. "I genuinely like both. I genuinely admire both of them. We make a terrible mistake believing we have to find something wrong with the people we can't vote for."

Rather than echo the Obama camp's attacks on GOP running mate Sarah Palin, the former president went out of his way in an interview Monday with reporters in New York to describe why he thinks she is popular. "I get why she's hot out there. Why she's doing well."

On the pregnancy of Palin's unmarried daughter, Clinton said, "People look at her, and they say: 'All those kids. Something that happens in everybody's family. I'm glad she loves her daughter and she's not ashamed of her. Glad that girl's going around with her boyfriend. Glad they're going to get married.'"

And on the health status of another Palin child, Clinton observed that many Americans react by saying, "I like that little Down syndrome kid. One of them lives down the street. They're wonderful children. They're wonderful people."

Now on CQ Politics Poll Tracker:
Latest State-by-State Matchups

Snooze and you lose when it comes to late-breaking polls in battleground states. CQ Politics Poll Tracker is here to help, monitoring the numbers and rating each state's presidential campaign status. Latest Updates: Ohio ("No Clear Favorite"), Michigan ("Leans Democrat"), New Hampshire ("No Clear Favorite"), New Mexico ("No Clear Favorite"), Pennsylvania ("Democrat Favored"), Virginia ("Leans Republican"), Florida ("No Clear Favorite"), Minnesota ("Leans Democratic"), North Carolina ("Leans Republican"), Georgia ("Republican Favored"), New Jersey ("Safe Democrat"), South Dakota ("Safe Republican") and Wisconsin ("Leans Democrat").

 

Craig on "The Rachel Maddow Show"
Tonight (9/23) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST

 

Just a few clicks of the map on the CQ Politics Electoral Scenario Builder and you quickly get to a 269-269 tie. I've found at least eight reasonably possible breakdowns where that occurs, but perhaps the most likely is to give Democrat Barack Obama the states won by his party's 2004 nominee, John Kerry, and add Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada.

The worst thing about an electoral tie would be having to dust off one of the Constitution's most confusing passages -- a provision of the 12th Amendment. On the surface it seems easy enough. The House picks the president, so Obama wins since Democrats control, right?

Not so fast. The House balloting under the 12th Amendment is one vote per state (resulting in the horribly disproportionate scenario where Wyoming and California carry equal weight).

Obama still should have the advantage in a House tally of state delegations. In its current configuration (and assuming a strict party-line vote), the House would award 28 votes to Obama and 21 to GOP nominee John McCain. Two states are evenly split by party, presumably resulting in a tie. And the District of Columbia gets to vote.

But the incoming House would likely be the decider (the 12th Amendment is not entirely clear on this point) and we don't know what the party breakdown will be until after the election. Although a good guess will be that Democrats gain seats.

So it appears that an Electoral tie goes to Obama -- unless the McCain team figures out a way to have the Supreme Court pick another president.

John McCain must be yearning for the good ole days -- a month ago -- when there was war in Europe. Barack Obama has to be thrilled that Wall Street is breaking up.

In such a tight presidential race, events are driving polls more than the candidates. McCain enjoyed an end-of-summer surge that traces back to the Russian invasion of Georgia, augmenting it with a strong convention and head-turning vice presidential pick.

That all stopped in its tracks when the economy came roaring back to stage, infusing Obama with a polling boost.

For those looking to predict the outcome of this election, you will have to figure out what the news will be that week. And whether the Republican White House can influence events to help McCain.

Trail Mix Family Album

Craig with Iowa Trail Spotter Zoey at Dem convention (Denver)

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Nostalgic for elections of year's past? Then according to the latest presidential campaign ad buy statistics, you'll love the 2008 campaign -- the major states in play include all of the great hits from yesteryear.

General elections in presidential campaigns have an inexorable way of pounding both sides into saying the same things.

Watching the message convergence on economics this week is a study in how John McCain and Barack Obama keep dancing toward each other on lots of issues.

As this week of focus on the economy wore on, the McCain-Obama echo chamber began sounding roughly the same populist messages, blaming greedy Wall Streeters and touting the sturdiness of working folks.

On other issues, most notably the Iraq War, the two party nominees refined their language into an almost indistinguishable mush. Obama's once clear call for an immediate end to the war shifted into talk of lengthening timetables that McCain also hints at supporting despite once claiming they would be irresponsible.

Both candidates now present themselves as change agents. Each talks about cutting taxes. Both favor more domestic drilling for oil. Their specific plans might offer different notes, but increasingly their rhetoric sings the same tunes.

This melting pot of words ultimately blurs telling distinctions between candidates, leaving voters and the news media understandably confused and more drawn to frothy comparisons of style and personality.

This is all the work of a consultant-driven mechanical process that becomes more refined with each passing election. Pollsters wire voters to their focus group machinery in search of one-liners that resonate. Electoral propeller heads isolate the niche audiences that will decide the outcome in key states.

Before long the Democratic and Republican camps figure out almost exactly what swing voters want to hear -- and the speech writers get to work making sure that their candidates say those things.

That is why the candidates must rely on each other's past statements and records to find real contrasts for their attack ads and stump assaults. Thanks to the leveling nature of modern campaigns, by Election Day the hopefuls sound so similar that they could probably finish each other's sentences without teleprompters.

It is too bad the Libertarians blew it in nominating Bob Barr for president. Too bad because a party that truly believes in personal freedom and limited government is worth hearing from in these days of major parties that equivocate and prevaricate on those principles.

But in Barr, a former Georgia congressman who once accidentally fired a revolver at a fundraiser, Libertarians have ended up with a loose cannon whose record isn't even that strong on the party's ideals. For instance, how can someone who claims authorship of the Defense of Marriage act now claim to be a libertarian?

In recent days Barr has further burnished his nutty reputation and made his newfound party look like a joke. He appeared in federal court as part of a ridiculous lawsuit against Michael Bloomberg, charging the New York mayor with defamation against a gun club. He is in court in Texas promoting a bogus claim that John McCain and Barack Obama should not be on the state ballot in November.

And lately Barr has been publicly inviting former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul, a onetime Libertarian nominee himself, to join him as running mate -- even though Barr has already chosen one, internet gambling entrepreneur Wayne Allyn Root. (Apparently, Paul never returned his call.)

Combine all this with Barr's pathetic fundraising and poor polling performance (which will cost him admission to the presidential debates) and you can see that Barr probably won't even have a spoiler effect anywhere in this race.

The Libertarian gambit to raise the party's profile with a better-known nominee than usual simply failed. The party ought to stay focused on building its base from the ground up, such as running stronger candidates for lesser offices, and one day its natural appeal to independent-thinking voters could really catch on.

Craig on the Rachel Maddow radio show
Today: Listen Live on Air America 6pm EST

 

Call it what happens when someone gets more than their 15 minutes of fame -- and what seemed like a rising star becomes a fiery crash.

The Palin Syndrome. It sounds like a science fiction movie, the made-for-tv or direct-to-dvd variety where studio heads only pay for the cheesiest special effects.

Sarah Palin is crashing. Less than two weeks ago the Republican vice presidential nominee burst into our living rooms like the fresh breeze we enjoy once turning off the air conditioner and opening the windows on that first day of September when the heat breaks.

But now the Alaska governor is turning out to be exactly what some suspected in the beginning - a false breeze. As quickly fleeting as the rosy cheeks that will probably disappear as she has little time for the tanning booth installed in her governor's mansion.

Webcam Trail Mix produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Lies are not uncommon in campaigns. But for the record, John McCain is telling more lies than Barack Obama.

Sure, Obama launched some whoppers in his nomination acceptance speech. Like claiming that "95 percent" of middle class Americans would get tax cuts under his proposals. It's more like 80 percent, according to various independent studies.

But the McCain campaign's barrage of fraudulent assertions, from claiming that running mate Sarah Palin opposed Alaska's infamous bridge to nowhere to accusing Obama of advocating sex education for children, are beyond the miserably low standards of presidential campaigns.

At some point voters ought to recognize that, even within the context of evidence-free presidential campaigning, McCain has gone too far.

It really is scary when the usually understated Alan Greenspan says the housing-finance crisis is the worst that he has seen in his long career.

Asked on ABC's "This Week" about the need for a federal bailout of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the ex-central banker said, "There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen, and it still is not resolved and it still has a way to go."

The next president will be dealt a fateful hand in deciding how to restore a housing finance system that does not put the American Dream of home ownership out of reach for most people. The rapid expansion of loans and guarantees under "Freddie" and "Fannie" produced record numbers of homeowners, but was it a false bubble that the federal government can no longer sustain?

The current plan for a federal bailout is a temporary fix meant only to stabilize markets until the next administration figures out what to do for the long term. 

Republican presidential contender John McCain proposes breaking up the quasi-governmental mortgage giants into several smaller entities. He wants to dramatically reduce federal involvement in housing finance to ensure a more stable market and fewer bad loans. That would likely mean fewer people buying homes, but for the ones who can, they'd be less likely to lose them.

Democrat Barack Obama advocates a more lasting federal role to protect affordable housing, promising to study how that can be done without a breakdown of the system like the one now engulfing markets.

Nothing short of the future of home ownership is at stake for the next president. Lets hope the coming debates produce some clues about whether McCain or Obama can save the American Dream.

John McCain's independent-sounding convention speech and stunning vice presidential pick seems to have persuaded many voters that he can be an agent of change. Gaining ground against Barack Obama on this score is driving McCain's resurgence in polls.

More than half of Americans now see each candidate as potentially effective in changing the way the government works in Washington, according to a Gallup survey. Obama still leads McCain in voter perceptions of their ability to change things (61-to-54 percent), but the Democrat no longer owns the label.

McCain's growing competitiveness for the change vote is especially dangerous for Obama because he is so far behind on the experience front. In a recent Associated Press survey asking who had the right experience to be president, McCain drew 80 percent to Obama's 46 percent (just five points ahead of GOP running mate Sarah Palin).

Obama's biggest challenge right now is to undo the effects of a Republican nominating convention that successfully branded McCain as a change agent. The Arizona senator emphasized his independence in a widely-viewed acceptance speech and chose a vice presidential contender who comes across as anti-establishment.

No matter what you think about Palin, there is no denying that McCain's decision was unconventional. It's being called a game changer.

McCain has at least proven to be an agent of change for his own campaign.

Finally, Barack Obama is playing old politics. Trying to be above it all wasn't working, never did and never will.

Against a barrage of old-politics attacks, Obama is giving up the high ground and attacking Republican foe John McCain for being old. So much for trying to change how campaigns work.

Obama is just another politician, exploiting his opponent's weakness with cheesy televsion advertisements -- and that's the only way he can make it to the White House.

Sarah Palin's first extensive television interview since becoming the Republican vice presidential contender yielded no patently disqualifying moments, but did seem to reveal surprising unsteadiness on a critical military policy question that should have been a no-brainer for the Iraq War supporter.

When ABC's Charlie Gibson asked Palin whether she supports the "Bush Doctrine," the Alaska governor answered with her own question -- "In what respect, Charlie?"

That sounded a bit like a clueless student in a college tutorial trying to trick the professor into suggesting the answer. Gibson did not let her off the hook, and Palin's answer was off point.

Finally, Gibson had to explain that the Bush Doctrine advocates a preemptive strike against any other country that "we think is going to attack us." Still, her answers stopped short of clear support for what was the Bush rationale behind an Iraq invasion that she fully supported. Palin's rambling sounded like she was afraid that it was a trick question.

Or perhaps Palin really intended to demur on whether she and GOP nominee John McCain back the Bush Doctrine. Full-throated support for it would be signing on to one of Bush's most radical and controversial departures from the nation's traditional stance to use force only against those who actually harm our security interests.

But the trouble for Iraq war supporters like McCain and Palin is that backing away from this principle could be interpreted as backing away from their support for the initial invasion.

The next president will have the opportunity to make permanent this unprecedented broadening of our policy for deploying military power. It will be one of the next administration's most significant policy choices.

Pinning down the candidates on the future of the Bush Doctrine ought to be a top priority for voters and the news media in this campaign. And candidates ought to at least know what it is.

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Craig says that whether the candidates admit it or not, in an election year, 9/11 is political.

In state-by-state polls released since the end of the party conventions, Barack Obama and John McCain begin the final sprint of the general election race more or less where Democrats and Republicans ended up four years ago.

Biggest differences: Obama could pick up Iowa's 7 electoral votes won by the GOP in 2004, but faces a dead heat for Pennsylvania's 21 votes won by the Democrats last time while in a dead heat for two Republican states with a combined total of 14 votes -- Colorado and New Mexico.

Obama Leads (latest surveys since the conventions):

• Iowa
• Maryland
• Michigan
• Minnesota
• New Hampshire
• New Jersey
• Washington

McCain Leads:

• Alaska
• Florida
• Missouri
• Montana
• North Carolina
• North Dakota
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Virginia
• West Virginia

Dead Heat:

• Colorado
• New Mexico
• Pennsylvania

Source: CQ Politics Poll Tracker; CQ Election Map

With pigs, pit bulls and fish-wrapping now all the rage on the presidential campaign trail, why not add scary frogs to the pile.

Long before Karl Rove put his name on the politics of distraction, a top Republican operative who specializes in electing weak candidates once explained to me how you derail a powerful foe who's winning on issues. He called it the ugly frog routine.

Ugly frogs in this game can be anything that opposing candidates do or say that, out of context, puts them on the defense.

"Stick that frog right in their face, shake it all around, and say, 'Here, look at this BIG UGLY FROG,'" the GOP consultant said. "Then, as they defend themselves and explain the context, real quick grab another ugly frog. Repeat often until they've spent most of the campaign reacting to your agenda."

John McCain's team has been playing the ugly frog routine against Barack Obama almost daily, starting with the Paris Hilton celebrity advertisement, forcing the Democrats to react to a barrage of silly attacks.

How do you fight the ugly frog routine, I asked this practitioner of the political dark arts. "Get your own frogs," he said. "Stay off defense."

When it became clear that joint appearances by John McCain and Sarah Palin were not a temporary post-convention phenomenon, some thought it was done out of fear that Palin is not ready for prime time.

But could it be that GOP operatives are really worried that it is McCain who is not ready for prime time?

For starters, it is doubtful that McCain could draw 10,000-plus crowds without his running-mate phenomenon on stage. Before picking Palin, McCain was lucky to draw 1,000 people to campaign events. At a minimum, the Palin factor increases those numbers by five times or more.

Avoiding the embarrassment of lackluster crowds is not the only reason for McCain to campaign every day with Palin. Focusing on Palin also minimizes the amount of time that McCain is out there campaigning and making mistakes. It was on his own in small-crowd, loosey-goosey town halls where McCain suffered some of his worst goofs, such as implying that he would keep troops in Iraq for 100 years.

The current McCain campaign formula for rallies gets the job done for now. They open with Palin revving up enthusiasm to a fever pitch -- and then, for McCain's best applause lines, he only needs to point at her and say, "Isn't she great?"

New State-by-State Polls
Now on CQ Politics Poll Tracker

Latest match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain update North Carolina (where there's a big change), Florida, Virginia, Washington state, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Montana and Maryland.

Primary elections in key races for Congress and governor today will nearly complete the intraparty voting prior to Election Day.

Comprehensive coverage tonight on CQ Politics:

• New Hampshire (Most polls close at 7 p.m. EST)
• Vermont (7 p.m.)
• Delaware (8 p.m.)
• Minnesota (9 p.m.)
• New York (9 p.m.)

Three states have yet to hold primary elections -- Massachusetts (Sept. 16), Hawaii (Sept. 20) and Louisiana (Oct. 4).

If Gen. David Petraeus is as smart as George W. Bush and John McCain say he is, why did the president overrule his top commander in Iraq? Today, Bush announced the withdrawal of 8,000 troops even though Petraeus argued to keep levels about the same until at least next June.

This is yet another opportunity to paraphrase the policeman in "Casablanca" who feigned surprise that gambling was going on in his jurisdiction. Politics? I'm shocked that politics might be at work in Bush's announcement.

What a curious time for Bush to finally side with those in his military circle who advised a troop reduction. Until now the president not only ignored such advice -- he got rid of those who said it too loudly.

The political value of this move is obvious. Even a modest reduction such as this helps McCain argue that we are winning in Iraq -- a theme repeated almost hourly at the Republican convention last week.

Right on cue, McCain praised Bush's troop reduction plan as based "on conditions on the ground and the advice of our military commanders in the field."

The real test of the political nature of Bush's announcement will be what he does with troop levels after Election Day.

Raising questions about whether there really will be any overall net reduction, Bush outlined a "quiet surge" of forces to Afghanistan. And Democrat Barack Obama wants even more than Bush called for, saying, "It is not enough troops, and not enough resources, with not enough urgency."

In a balancing act worthy of Cirque de Soleil, there was Hillary Rodham Clinton in Florida on Monday splitting the difference between what she was asked to do for Barack Obama while taking care not to play the attack dog against Republican running mate Sarah Palin.

"It is a great accomplishment," Clinton said of Palin's selection as the GOP's first female vice presidential candidate.

Sure, she went on to deliver boiler plate Democratic lines against the Republicans,  But her words fell far short of opening new battle lines against Palin, as some in Obama's camp had hoped she might do.

Clinton's seemingly toughest assault against the GOP candidates -- saying they "are not the change that we need" -- actually acknowledged that John McCain and Palin do in fact represent some change.

Pardon me if I am reading too much into Sen. Clinton's words. I have been parsing Clintonian sentence structure for 17 years. As a longtime Clinton associate told me after her less-supportive-than-commonly-perceived convention speech in Denver, "Those of us who know how to read between their lines, know what they really mean. Amateurs don't have a clue."

There is something eerily similar about a racially-tinged advertisement now attacking Barack Obama in Michigan and the infamous "Willie Horton" spot that helped undermine 1988 Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis:

Freedom's Defense Fund (currently running in Detroit suburbs).

National Security Pac (1988)

Both political parties earned a modest polling bounce and impressive television viewership with their national conventions. But give Republican nominee John McCain a slight edge simply because he went last.

Perhaps most surprising is how McCain's Thursday night acceptance speech produced a significant boost despite much criticism for his less-than-stellar delivery. While GOP numbers ticked upward after running mate Sarah Palin's speech, they truly spiked after McCain's address. You have to wonder if the Arizona senator's awkward style - combined with the dramatic focus on his prisoner-of-war ordeal -- actually made him seem more genuine. Call it the Authenticity of Gauche.

The debates kicking off on Sept. 26 offer the next big chance for a massive television audience that could move polling numbers. The trouble for Democratic standard bearer Barack Obama is that debating was not his greatest strength in the primaries.

McCain, who skewered GOP primary foe Mitt Romney in their party's final debates, performs better in those forums than with the formal speeches that are Obama's forte. But the mostly positive public reaction to McCain's convention performance suggests that he is more effective than we thought with formal, teleprompter-driven speeches.

(St. Petersburg Times Eric Deggans, TV/Media Critic) __ "From Hillary Rodham Clinton alleging sexism to the GOP decrying favoritism of Barack Obama, both Democrats and Republicans have complained for months about media coverage of the presidential campaign.

But the criticism took a new tone this week, as Sarah Palin spoke to the Republican National Convention.

Craig Crawford, a columnist for Congressional Quarterly, literally wrote the book on this strategy. Attack the Messenger looked at the first President George Bush's conflict with then-CBS anchor Dan Rather, explaining how politicians blunt journalists' effectiveness by alleging bias.

Crawford said the secrecy surrounding John McCain' choice of running mate sparked a rush to investigate Palin, making allegations of piling on harder to refute.

The difference now? More journalists are pushing back.

'In the old days, the media remained silent during attacks, not wanting to be a part of the story,' said Crawford of C.Q., which is owned by the St. Petersburg Times' parent company. 'Now, I see more reaction. We need to be aggressive about reminding folks our job is to put facts on the table. It's voters' role to decide what to eat and what to push aside.'" (9/6)

While Trail Mix soaks our blistered feet, a look back at our video coverage of the Republicans:

• GOP Sings the Gustav Blues: As Hurricane Gustav pounds the Gulf Coast, Craig talks to delegates from Texas, a state both physically and politically in the eye of the storm. (9/1)
• An Unconventional Convention: Due to a plethora of unexpected distractions, the Republican National Convention is off to a slow start. (9/2)
• McCain's Very Large Screen: Convention sets say a lot about how campaigns try to brand their candidates. (9/3)
• The Race Is On: Video Trail Mix winds up our convention coverage with a visit to Minnesota's Mall of America. (9/4)

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Video Trail Mix at the Democratic Convention

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Video Trail Mix winds up our convention coverage with a visit to Minnesota's Mall of America.

With Republican presidential nominee John McCain's acceptance speech here in St. Paul, Minnesota, the 2008 general election officially begins. Both party tickets are set. Debates start in a few weeks. And in two months voters choose the next president. Let's blog it!

In a year of murky debates about racial code language, one Republican congressman at his party's national convention just sidestepped subtlety for the plainly overt.

Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, who represents Atlanta suburbs, commented about Barack and Michelle Obama in talking with a few reporters on Thursday. "They're a member of an elitist class . . . that thinks that they're uppity," Westmoreland said, according to CQ reporter Molly K. Hooper.

"Uppity, you said?" he was asked.

"Yeah, uppity," Westmoreland replied.

Many Obama supporters have long complained that those who call the Democratic nominee "elitist" are really trying to evoke the word "uppity," a derisive term applied to ambitious African-Americans.

Indeed, the unspoken "uppity" theme has underscored much of Republican nominee John McCain's campaign attacks on Obama. How inconvenient for McCain that Rep. Westmoreland just blew his cover.

[Full story on CQ Politics -- Audio of Westmoreland Comments]

I have covered every national party convention since 1988, and attended many as a civilian going back to 1972. I cannot recall any speech better than Sarah Palin's incredible performance on Wednesday night.

Indeed, I cannot think of anyone who even came close to Palin's cleverly common touch and devastatingly pleasant attacks on the opposing party. Her down-home delivery was perfectly balanced between the rowdy needs of a crowded convention hall and the private calm of a quiet living room. Her tone was expertly conversational, and without the slightest hint of self-consciousness.

You would think that this woman had been giving major convention speeches her entire life. And yet, this was her first. Veteran politicians who have been tackling such venues for decades could not approach Palin's skill.

But did the Republican vice presidential nominee hypnotize or energize? Have I been brainwashed into some "Palinomic" state of temporary insanity, or is this woman a genuine leader worthy of a manic following?

I look forward to figuring this out.

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Convention sets say a lot about how campaigns try to brand their candidates. Craig takes a look at the interior of the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul to see what the setup says about John McCain.

Storms of nature and politics aside, the Republican national convention has been called to arms and its success or failure now depends on tonight's rollout speech from the party's vice presidential pick.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin holds this convention's fate in her hands. A winning speech could go a long way toward settling doubts among some voters, although the media frenzy is likely to go on.

It is tempting to compare Palin's rough media coverage to Dan Quayle's 1988 tug of war with reporters in the weeks following his nomination to run with George H. W. Bush. If that comparison holds, it could be good news for John McCain. The 1988 Bush campaign won that race partly on the strength of using the Quayle bashing to rally their supporters against the media establishment.

Feisty defenses of Palin in Tuesday night's speeches point the way. Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman set the stage in a pair of speeches that began to get this convention back on track.

Palin's performance tonight will likely set the course for how this convention ends.