Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

OBAMA~Biden '08

I will sleep well tonight.

And yes - Obama is who I want to answer the phone at 3 a.m.

Buenas noches.

Si Se Puede!

Craig,
It didn't take us long to get a shuttle bus...I guess they treat the delegations better than the press. Coming back we had Dan Rather and Tammy Duckworth on our bus. I was with one of the guys in our delegation and we probably got back to our hotel at least an hour before anyone else in our delegation. Who knew Dan Rather would have to ride a shuttle bus! Later. I need to pack. I am going to Morning Joe tomorrow. Yikes! 4 a.m. start time.

Craig heads off to the local watering hole and leaves poor Andrew to keep things up and running...

Andrew, our hats are off to you! Excellent job under (I'm sure) less than ideal conditions, like keeping a net around Craig!

Lucky for you Craig you'll be able to catch up on much needed rest next week at repug fest.

Thanks for the on-the-scene report; I hope they had escalators to the top sections as I know all about cheap-seat viewing of events. I know giant screens replaced the need for binoculars, but I'm old-school, I'd have packed my binoculars.

Montana — Governor: Brian Schweitzer (D) said Montana was going Blue in November...is he nuts? He gave a helluva speech Wednesday night but I can't believe Montana is going Dem.

So Craig did you have a good time or was it all work?

Interesting factoid on CNN, lesbians and gay men made up approx. 6% of the delegates to the convention.

Watching the Obama extravaganza tonight, I felt vaguely uncomfortable, the mobs of thousands, Obama T-shirts for $25.00, popcorn and nachos. But, I think it was the fireworks seeming like fire shooting out from the columns that really made me squeamish.The event seemed more like an over-the-top, rock show than a presidential convention.

Another factoid...Obama's campaign keep talking about the importance of the youth vote in this campaign, but only 7% of the delegates are under 30...

great image

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/08/29/us/29dems2.6002.jpg

marcia your age is showing.

spike...the youth vote never materializes, and it won't be youth in 2008 that pushes Obama to the top.
I've been disappointed too much the past 20 years; we cannot allow a 2008 version of Kenneth Backwell to rear an ugly head and steal an election, nor another Katherine Harris, no swiftboating liars, no make-you-scared Willie Horton stories, no corrupt US Supreme Court...we cannot and must not let any of these tactics stop us from claiming the WH...we must remain diligent every day until November 4th. But it wont be youth that puts us over the top.

spike how does that translate to voter turnout?

yep...much better than 1968 at International Amphitheater in Chicago....

We are skeptical of slogans, but there is a refreshing audacity — another of Mr. Obama’s favorite words — in the strategy that he and his team have chosen

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/opinion/29fri1.html?ref=opinion

http://pandagon.net/index.php/site/comments/pumas_are_swiftboats_darragh_murphy/

Pandagon site says PUMAS are Rovian plot...not real

Just a great show and a great way to send OBAMA/BIDEN on the road. The wife (who just LOVES Biden) has me hyped. In our house, he's now Joey B. I can't wait for the anti-climatic McCain announcement tomorrow. However, classy move by McCain in the congrats. The one non slimy thing his campaign done.

I'm younger than you, Brian.

Age has nothing to do with class. The Obama event lacked class and restraint.

Brian -- "how does that translate to voter turnout?"

Don't quote me, but as I remember from the primaries, the under-25 (30?) age group accounted for about 17% of the voters. But it's after 2 here, and I'm running on fumes.

Spike I'm questioning that voter turn out among younger voters is not what it should be, I'm questioning what the makeup of the delegates has to do with it.

marcia you do realize that cars now have automatic starters and no longer require a crank on the front to get them started yes? Your criticism smacks of fuddy duddism and sour grapes. Given the source, not suprising.

Just a quick peak at the Intrade markets. Earlier in the evening, Tim Pawlenty contract odds were about 4-5. Those odds have lengthened to about 6-to 5. Rommey who was up to 20-to-1 earlier in the evening, have gone currently to 3-1. The "Field" contracts have gone from 20-to-1 to 5-to-1 at this hour. This all could be market jitters, but it seems like the market is a little less certain than what it was earlier...

Brian -- " I'm questioning what the makeup of the delegates has to do with it."

In states that had caucuses, delegates are elected from the people actually in the room. The Obama campaign has always made a big deal about getting younger people involved. At the college I at which I teach, I was really surprised at the level of student involvement. However, all that involvement (including those students attending the caucuses) didn't translate into getting elected to attend the convention.

OK guys -- off to bed -- given all the platitudes being given this speech, I guess I'll download it and give it another go in the morning. Night all -- Spike

Again, I'm younger than you are. Brian, careful, your immaturity is showing.

What I rode yesterday:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vymbNaempEM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RiTQQqcgn0&feature=related

Brian.....(still a swine, no matter how swell the speech)

just for the halibut......when I posted the basket weavers for KGC.....i'd just gotten home from playing a music job after having worked all day as well.....so I actually missed the speech...

have to be up early (like, now) and hit it again so still havent seen anything of it except televised excerpts, re-caps, the comment section, my wife's (ardent obama supporter) recounting of the event, craig's post, and whatever may have seeped into me little dreams.......

I'd read the basket weavers article in the paper yesterday and had resolved at that time to send it to KGC when I got home as she has expressed interest.

It seems by all accounts to have been a barn burner of a speech and I hope he can win in November...."we will see" about covers it......

I'm looking forward to what Debra Dickerson has to say about it.

But you know?......Even should he win the election and becomes president you'll still be a swine, and a happy pig is still just a pig.

Rez.......youve been a gentleman thru-out this whole extended ordeal, you and Warren and maybe a couple of others....Thanks for not letting your support for a candidate turn you into a pig like brian.......

maybe tonight I'll get to see the speech......

Good Morning everyone!

Corey -- The Thunderbolt looks like the new ride at King's Dominion, the Dominator, which used to be the Batman Ride at a Six Flags and was moved to Virginia when Cedar Fair bought the park from Paramount. Surprisingly the Dominator's lines are very short, so my kids usually ride it several times when we go to KD. (We go every week since we have season passes.)

Here's a clip of the Dominator when t used to be called the Batman ride

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_4X-kGGgzE

The Timbers ride looks awesome.

KGC -- I had a Telecomm meeting last night so I missed most of the festivities -- got home in time to catch the last part of BO's speech.

But the good news is we had a presentation from a local video producer who has to travel to Fairfax county for public access studio time. When the other commissioners saw the stuff she was producing and heard more about the concept of of PEG, they are all now on board and enthusiastic about launching a public access channel here. Now I have to work on the business model.

"Hey Lush,

All those that came for the free entertainment, somehow stayed for the sermon."
--Rezdog

Hallelujah...Praise Jesus!!!
_____

BTW, I guess I can now safely say that I missed John Legend... 8~(
_____

OK...OK...enough of this Democratic Party celebration...LOL!!

I am heading out for a weekend of real partying...my 35th high school class reunion...woohoo!! It is actually a multi-class reunion('70-'74)...it will be wild...ohhhyeahhh!!! 8~P

Last night I was talking with a young black man who is at a point in his life here he is really being tested. He just paid his college tuition, but he doesn't have enough money for books. He needs to make his rent by next week, he's working two jobs, and is starting an internship 30 miles away. Between driving to school, the two jobs and now the internship, the cost of gas is eating another hole in his budget. Nothing left for food, so he's subsisting on ramen noodles, hot dogs, bread and PB -- no J since he didn't have enough money for jelly.

He was on his way to work, so he was not going to watch the speech last night. He asked me, "Do you think Obama will win?" I said that the race was uncomfortably close right now, but I also recalled that in previous cycles, DEMs have had big leads at the same point in the campaign, only to watch the leads evaporate after the GOP Convention, so I'm guardedly hopeful. Then he said, "I just don't think people are ready for a black president."

I told him that people might not have been ready for a woman president -- and how some people even told me that when I made calls for Hillary, even people who said they were voting for Obama.

Bottom line -- are people *more* ready for more pain and suffering under the same damaging GOP policies that will be perpetuated by McCain? Vote black or stay back.

Pro-BO or not, it was a great night...except for the odd choice of music & cheese-r-ific fireworks at the end.

Al Gore was great, but had to laugh at his opener...much like Bill Clinton in burying the lead if he thinks BO is the man for the job. To paraphrase Big Al: Hey, it's only 4 years. Give him a try. What've you got to lose?

BO's speech was very good, but there was never any doubt about it. He moved toward something more tangible and away from that big, gassy nebulous called "change."

I would like the details of any ideas he has on actually achieving these things. His policy book is supposed to come out next week, but why should I have to pay for it? This is his job interview; he needs to come to us.

Looking forward to the debates to see if Hil'ry has been coaching him. Can you teach someone to think on their feet in a few, short weeks?

Thank goodness for Tweety. Dear MSNBC, please can Olbermann before he sucks all of the air out of room. Even when he says something I agree with...well, he's just so full of himself it's awful. You know that self-important, chest-puffing, inhaling thing he does? Yep, I don't even like the way he inhales these days. Haven't watched his show in 1/2 a year or so, and find myself turning to CNN when he's on with poor, sweet Tweety. Heck, watching KO even makes me miss Fluffy Carlson.

zoey - Yes, surprising about Dan Rather on the shuttle bus. I thought he could teleport.

I agree with PM's take on the trappings of excess at Invesco. I thought they were tawdry. Which does nothing to take away from the importance of the occasion.

Alicia, a couple of weeks ago my daughter and I talked about her ramen years. Seems as if it's a rite of passage. I really hope the young man makes it into school. Once there, he should find a way of surviving.

More on Ramen.

Last year when I read Momofuku Ando's obituary I marveled at how this man, the inventor of the ramen noodle, had single handedly saved tens of millions of people from starvation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/09/business/worldbusiness/09ando.html

Alicia -- is there a way any of us could help buy the young man his school books? I'll kick in a hundred bucks if you'll email me and can get the money to him.

balecox at aol dot com

Well, considering the historical importance of last night, it was good that the moved it to the stadium. More people will always feel like they were there when history was made. And because the venue was so big, the stage needed to be big. Like I said yesterday, you don't use the same decorations for a banquet hall that you do for a kiddie party in the back yard.

I do take exception with the fireworks. A puny amount of fireworks for the size of the venue, probably not good for the environment...and it poured a big, blob of ballpark cheese all over an important event.

Now, can we please talk about something important...like Michelle Obama's dress?

blue: you won't have to pay for the policy book -- it will get heavily reported and the blogosphere will do extended commenting. Of course, opponents will pick out a sentence or paragraph out of context and try to run with it.

Hope the book makes it easier to discuss the issues; interesting experiment there....

Apparently it NOT Pawlenty!

"Alicia, a couple of weeks ago my daughter and I talked about her ramen years. "

Flatus -- yes, my son and his roommate ate a lot of Ramen noodles for some time at Vandy.

Experiment? Ross Perot did it. It was called United We Stand. No, I didn't vote for him, but Bill Clinton did parallel (or borrow) some of the stuff in it. I miss Bill.

CSPAN: Pawlenty announces he won't be at Dayton today.

And ditto what sturge said regarding Brian's stupid comment to Prof Marcia.

Ramen noodles, broken up in the package & sauteed in butter on Chinese chicken salad. Mmm.

The guys on Morning Joe think it's Mitt Romney...apparently they have confirmation he is in Ohio.

Flatus -- My young friend is actually well into his college career. Thankfully he's almost to the finish line -- but he's feeling really bleak. I told him about my ramen years -- mostly survived by working in restaurants where I could eat for free. My restaurant job was in DC and school was in College Park, MD. Whenever I wasn't in class I was working. But gas was less than $1 a gallon -- that's the big difference.

Which reminds me that I need to remind him to switch his voter registration from Blacksburg to Stafford. For the primary, he drove down to Blacksburg to vote -- he won't be able to do that now.

INTRADE UPDATE...

Tim Pawlenty has announced he's not McCain's VP...

The Intrade market is way in flux with the Field contracts are slightly less than 2-to-1.

The market has lots of money coming into Sarah Palin, but it doesn't sound like it's her.

Romney is also getting most of the money, running his odds down to 6-5.

A dark horse that is getting some play is Eric Cantor
Cantor (born June 6, 1963) is an American politician who has been a Republican member of the United States House of Representatives since 2001, representing Virginia's 7th congressional district (map). The district includes most of the wealthier portions of Richmond, as well as most of that city's suburbs and portions of the Shenandoah Valley. Cantor is the sole Jewish Republican in the House.[1]

During his first term in office, Cantor was selected to serve as Chairman of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare. He has also served on the House Financial Services Committee and on the House International Relations Committee and the very powerful House Ways and Means Committee. Since his second term, he has served as chief deputy Republican whip, the highest appointed position in the Republican caucus.

Cantor is a supporter of strong US-Israel relations, cosponsoring legislation that would cut off all U.S. taxpayer aid to the Palestinian Authority and another bill calling for an end to taxpayer aid to the Palestinians until they stop unauthorized excavations on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.[5] Responding to a claim by the State Department that the United States provides no "direct" aid to the Palestinian Authority, Cantor stated that United States sends about $75 million in aid annually to the Palestinian Authority, which is administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development. Cantor also stated that Congress approved a three-year package of $400 million in aid for the Palestinian Authority in 2000.[6] Cantor's cousin, Daniel Cantor Wultz, died as the result of a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv which was carried out by Islamic Jihad on April 17, 2006.

In August 2008, it was reported that Cantor was being considered as John McCain's Vice Presidential running mate, with McCain's representatives seeking documents from Cantor as part of its vetting process.

If it's Cantor, you heard it here first...

DEVELOPING.,...

Good morning all
Good speech last night,I could have done without the Rock Star affects of the Stadium! To much show biz for me.I was elated by Obama's stance on nuclear energy,good move.America should just take a look at France and how they effectively have used Nuclear Power....

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/08/the-long-road-to-invesco-field.html#comment-135408

DEX -- There are real PUMAs -- I know some and I've met even more. They are being exploited by the GOP looking for any wedge to get an edge, but their feelings are real.

They are like Reagan DEMS. They feel very estranged from the DEMs right now and they are enjoying the ass-kissing that the GOP is giving them. The DEMs would be smart to start doing doing some ass-kissing of their own, with a little groveling thrown in, or they may lose the PUMAs for as long as they lost the Reagan DEMS.

Patsi -- WOW! That is mighty generous of you to offer to help my friend pay for his college books.

I know he would really appreciate it. I will send you an email with my contact info.

knight dot alicia at gmail dot com

Thank you!

CSPAN: Fox News reporting Romney is out of the running.

Romney out. Intrade shares fell starting at 7:15

Both Sarah Palin and the Field contracts now have 4-5 odds.

Developing

Mornin' all.

Spike I always find the INtrade stuff interesting - but I don't rely on anything that changes based on the way people who are willing to bet their on money on anything as speculative as say, sports or politics, place their bets. As soon as the house starts losing in Vegas and the bookies, numbers runners and lotteries start to go broke because the bettors have finally gotten the odds swung to them, i may change my mind.

PM, ALWAYS consider the source.

Alicia, your kids remind me of mine - big ride adrenaline junkies. LP loves to go to theme parks and to Cedar Point to get thrown around and G-forced just short of passing out if he can find rides to push his personal envelope. On our last trip to Orlando (I use "last" in the sense that it is our most recent - I can only hope it will prove to have been our last trip to Orlando for the foreseeable future - sorry Craig) I finally had enough of the Hulk and Duelling Dragons and told LP that he could go back and reride DD as long as he wanted - I'd just sit out front and wait for him and watch the other tourons walk past. I bet he rode each side 15 times before the lines got too long for him - which is about 15 minutes.

Despite my best intentions, I only saw the first 5 minutes of Obama's acceptance speech, but I did like what I saw. I caught some of the CNN post mortem of it this morning and a little of MSNBC, and the consensus seems to be that it was a great one. I hope it leads to momentum. He is, of course, right about McCain - 90% Bush. No thanks, I've had enough of 100% Bush.

good morning gang...

I thought Obama gave a great speech last night..... very effective.....
he will need to kick McCain's butt if he's to win this election and last night was a good start.....

I thought he did a great job delineating the difference between Democrats and Republicans.....

I watched on CNN and everyone there was praising the speech...... David Gergen gave the highest praise by comparing the speech to a symphony....

the fireworks were lame,IMO.... Atlas put on a donated display at my craft fair and they were much better..... but that's a minor gripe.....

Spike-

Where is Tom Ridge trading?

~G

Barack Obama's Invesco Field speech

"Filling a stadium with more than 84,000 people is no mean feat but the whole event had the feel of a great idea if Obama had been holding a 12-point poll lead and looked to be cruising towards an easy victory in November. With the polls now tied and a dogfight with McCain beckoning it felt like a mistake."

Obama's demeanor remains cool and aloof. Bill Clinton could feel people's pain. Obama who, as Michael Barone has pointed out, has spent his entire adult life living in university communities, appears to view people's pain with concerned detachment."

"Throughout the week, Democrats were far too polite towards John McCain. Yes, he's a war hero but, as Wesley Clark correctly if impoliticly pointed out, that doesn't in itself qualify him to be President, and there's no need to honor McCain's service every time his name is mentioned.."

"Obama has allowed McCain to get under his skin and inside his head....."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/Toby_Harnden

Corey.... glad to read you had a good time yesterday..... you deserve it!

Carol.... I haven't been following the news about Gustav..... but I pray for you and everyone else that are in it's path.....

Prof Marcia..... that garbage isn't worth the effort or time it takes to spit on the floor..... your entitled to your opinions same as everyone else....

Bethy..... I passed the test!..... oh goody..... :0)

Ridge is making a strong move up 4-to-1 in the last minute, no doubt because of comments by Wesley Clark.

Palin still at 4-5

Doesn't look like it's Lieberman

Field is trading at 1-to-10. The market suggests no clear choice.

Developing.

Chloe, I guess I should pay more attention to conservative commentators like Barone, but I just can't. The Fox News, National Review crowd doesn't give anyone the straight skinny on anything even remotely liberal or Democratic and he's just taking a shot at Obama. Chicago certainly has colleges - one of the most prestigious US Universities at which Obama was a part time instructor, but really, who calls Chicago a college town? And Springfield a college town? Hardly. And DC - college town is hardly what first comes to mind. At first I thought the Invesco Field venue was a mistake, but I've changed my mind on that. I think it shows pretty dramatically that Dems can muster support for Obama, and coupled with what by most accounts was a terrific speech, I hope it indicates the beginning of momentum toward November. That's the feeling I get from it - of course Obama needs to spend the next week hammering McCain and not letting the Repugs gain momentum from the VP announcement and their convention. Of course, it's hard to get too worked up about a convention in M-SP.

Spike, What do you think of Plains chances?

Like Jamie said yesterday, that would be a candidate from Hawaii and Alaska, last 2 states.

Palin, that is.

Another darkhorse:

Robert Jones "Rob" Portman (born December 19, 1955) is an American lawyer and politician who has served in two cabinet positions and as a member of Congress. Most recently, he was Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Prior to this appointment, Portman was the United States Trade Representative, a post carrying the rank of Ambassador. From 1993 to 2005, he was a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Ohio, representing that state's 2nd congressional district (map), which stretches along the Ohio River from the Hamilton County suburbs of Cincinnati.

He was confirmed by the Senate as U.S. Trade Representative on April 29, 2005, and privately sworn into his new office that day. Later, a public, ceremonial swearing-in was performed by then-White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card on May 17, 2005, with his friend President Bush in attendance [1]. On April 18, 2006 President Bush nominated him to fill the role of Budget Director; its former director, Joshua B. Bolten, was promoted to White House Chief of Staff.

Portman, currently of counsel in the Cincinnati office of the global law firm Squire, Sanders & Dempsey, is viewed as a strong up-and-comer in the Ohio Republican Party and is considered likely to be a future Ohio candidate for Senate or Governor.[citation needed] In a blogpost by columnist Michael Meckler, he stated that when members of Congress were asked who they believed would be running for president in 20 years, the second most frequently mentioned name among Republicans was that of Rob Portman. He had also been much mentioned as the likely successor of Treasury Secretary John W. Snow until Snow resigned from his post on May 30, 2006 and George W. Bush chose Goldman Sachs CEO, Henry M. Paulson, Jr., as his replacement. According to columnist Robert Novak, Portman is President Bush's choice for Vice Presidential running mate for Senator John McCain. On June 25, 2008, Portman was interviewed by Sean Hannity of FOX News, as a possible running mate for McCain.

In Novak's March 28, 2008 article, he wrote that "Portman's background is legislative (House Republican leadership), executive (George W. Bush's Cabinet), diplomatic (U.S. trade representative) and economic (Office of Management and Budget director). He comes from a swing state (Ohio), is young enough (52) to contrast McCain and conservative enough (89 percent lifetime American Conservative Union rating)."Portman for VP. In a May 27, 2008 New York Times Op-Ed column, David Brooks wrote, "Portman is an Ohioan with the mind of a budget director and a mild temperament that is a credit to his Midwestern roots. His résumé is ideal: He directed legislative affairs for the first President Bush, served in Congress for more than a decade and managed the Office of Management and Budget under Bush the younger. He excelled in every role."[1]

Thanks pogo. Point taken.

Barackopolis

"Reminiscent of the Nuremberg Rallies, which Adolf Hitler invented to emulate the Roman Triumphs ...

... Mainstream Media has manipulated the public into believing the distorted propaganda of an unqualified hustler from Chicago?

Obama’s rally is one of the most infamous moments in this entire hemisphere’s history, because it showcased the utter decline of American culture and it exposed the stupidity and pathetically self serving desire of many people to be man-handled by a nice stage setup, shiny lights, and a Joseph Goebbels styled propaganda video that sugar coated the background of the WORST candidate in the history of the United States."

http://savagepolitics.com/?p=1625

pogo@8:49

Sound analysis, sir.

Ramen years.

I was pre-ramen. But, I did have one of those old fashioned popcorn makers that was like a sauce pan on top of a hot plate.

There was a little store not far from the dorm where I could get a can of soup and a loaf of bread for less than 50-cents. And, popcorn was really cheap, too.

I bet I could have cooked a full course meal in that popcorn maker.

This is a good attack ad from the Obama campaign

I saw it theis morning on the TV very funny and entertaining.
Warning!
it is a song parody set to "Don't know much about History" so it is a major ear worm. You may be humming the tune all morning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGV0OY3MtFI

Jack

Flatus -- Thanks for the link on the Ramen noodles inventor. My kids are huge ramen fans. My youngest will eat a couple of packages by himself -- I will send him the link.

Here is Ramen-fan page:

http://www.mattfischer.com/ramen/

Apparently the 50th anniversary or Ramen was this week.

Unfortunately, the price of Ramen will be going up -- I am so sick and tired of this bad economy!

Just got back from the Wes Clark segment of Mornin Joe. They are broadcasting from next door to my hotel. Wes was lovely as always...got my every so often hug and to shake those wonderful swimmers hands. I haven't been to bed yet so guess I will finish packing and take a nap before check-out. Craig's hugs are pretty darn good too.

Here's the Veepstakes names who are left that are getting any play at all on Intrade:

Tom Ridge
Joe Lieberman
Rob Portman
Eric Cantor
Fred Thompson
John Kasich

The Field contract is currently trading at 1-to-10...

Lieberman is in Dayton, OH

Pogo

While the stadium made for some great visual images. It lost some in the excitement department. Not at the event but the way the excitement is translated over the TV. I found it amusing that GMA boosted the crowded noise response for their clips, from what was broadcast last night. Conventions are noisy intimate affairs and this seemed to make Obama more removed from the crowd.
That said , imo , Obama did a great job of overcoming the limitations of the venue. For the first time I think he has shown the passion needed to win and I think that was important. Though sometimes he came across as the scolding preacher but maybe that is my reaction to authority type behavior.

Jack

Sturg
Thanks for posting the article on the basket makers.
The exhibit sounds wonderful. I'm hoping it will make its way west.

Alicia
Sounds like you are making progress on keeping public access alive. I haven't talked to the people in Santa Rosa lately but they don't really have anyone to champion for them a there is no cable or telecom commission -it falls to the city council committee.

So the McCain folks outfoxed Intrade...

In the interest of full disclosure, the Intrade.com Vice Presidential Futures market incorrectly picked Tim Pawlenty is John McCain's Vice Presidentia pick.

Based on past history, I consider the market called when an event crosses the 80% probability threshold (4-5 odds) sometime at least 24 hours before the event occurs. At this level, the market makes the correct pick approximately 80% of the time.

The market crossed the 80% threshold for Pawlenty at approximately 8pm EDT last night which fit the time horizon for making the call.

I think the Huckster is in Dayton too as in Romney

flatus, well, thank 'ee.

Like I said Jack, I only caught 5 minutes at the beginning of the speech before the god of sleep took me. Crowd noise is always an issue in broadcasts like that and its level is wholly at the discretion of the sound engineers. Visually, from what little I saw my only criticism would be that the Faux West Wing windows were all I saw other than Obama whenever he was shown speaking - the crowd was only apparent in long shots. My criticism of that is pretty minor and niggling, but it certainly could have been staged differently to take advantage of images of Obama juxtaposed against the crowd, which is why I thought they chose the venue. I saw more of the crowd behind the talking heads between speakers than I did during the speech. Apparently you agree with most of the commentators - they agree that the requisite passion was on display for the first time. I did catch bits of him going after McCain, and I thought that was good, and is what he needs to do if he plans on winning this thing.

Great video, Craig.

My favorite double-edged quote was from Ron Clark, the Douglas County party official on the bus, explaining how his badge works:

"They've got a hologram -- it changes from a picture of Sen. Obama back to some text about change."

Sort of sums up what Hillary, Bill and their camp have been saying all along about the substance of the Obama campaign.

Yuk. Yuk.

GORDO,

What is your pornographic obsession with comparing a political candidate you don't like with Nazi propagandists? Why do I wonder that besides your stash off bestiality porn that you have Nazi fetish porn as well?

If you put pictures of both Obama and McCain on a split screen and asked people to "pick the Nazi", you honestly think anyone would pick Obama?

I hope McCain picks Ridge. It would be signal to the religious right that they can get off at the next bus stop;

And that is FDR's lesson for Obama. Politics is not a battle for the middle. It is a battle for defining the terms of the political debate. It is a battle to be able to say what is the middle. . . The lesson of Hofstadter is to embrace liberal governance and understand populist politics. It may sound cynical, but you must get through the door to govern. Lincoln knew this. FDR knew this. Hofstadter knew this. I hope Obama can learn this.http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/8/29/8504/02974

Big Tent Demo post from 2006 ..he goes on to say he thinks the speech demonstrates Obama learned the lesson (and learned it from the Clintons)

I had to work until 9:30 last night...missed the event, but watched the re-broadcast on Faux News, no less. I thought Obama's speech was brilliant.

KGC

It would make a statement to them. I also think it would be easy to keep them on board. Just start passing out pictures of Obama hugging Kennedy with the line this is what you get if you don't vote.

A thought, is this campaign going to boil down to attack ads using left wing images on one side and Bush on the other?

I'm not certain who is more unpopular out in middle America.
Jack

I noticed your Qwest neck thingie, Craig. I still think Qwest as a company got screwed for standing-up to the government on wire tapping and losing all of those gov. contracts. And I thought Obama's FISA vote did little to help elevate them for their stance. Sure is a healing time for the dems.

When Shrub leaves he should take the creeps with him

Bring back the country club republicans...at least they aren't trying to trample on people's individual rights.

Now on to the thugs...er...the repugs convention. If McCain picks a woman VP, it could really sweeten the season.

Jack, I'm not so sure middle America is the middle that is subject to change its vote. If I were a political consultant I'd tell the campaigns that it's the politically independent in the states that are either tied or leaning that Obama or McBush need to appeal to if they want to win and that they had better craft their messages to make their best appeals to those groups. I could be wrong since I'm not one of those voters, but it strikes me that an emphasis on McCain's embrace of the policies of a wildly unpopular president who governs from the crotch intead of the head is the correct approach. The stuff like that portion of his speech that is excerpted in this analysis makes me think Obama is finally on the right track to make that appeal successfully.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/us/politics/29assess.html?hp

A grand good morning to one and all!

The Republican spin on last nights speech

"Angry: Of all the aspects of this speech, the anger was the part that surprised me the most. I didn’t expect him to take it easy on McCain, but after McCain’s “well done,” ad, I wondered if they would take out some of the sharper or snippier lines. I can't imagine anything came out, unless this morning's version included him dropping the F-bomb. The red tie fits Obama tonight, because he was angry. As another blogger noted to me while Obama was giving the speech, McCain’s congratulatory ad looks out of place tonight, as he just made a nice gesture to a guy ripping him six ways to Sunday"

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjFiZDEwYjg4ZWJjMjdhMmRjZWEyYTk0NzYxOGMwNDE=

Jack

Regards of what the media is reporting, Intrade.com futures market for Sarah Palin is still trading at very high levels. Her contracts are currently trading at 4-5 odds. These levels are equal to where she was trading prior to it being reported she was going to be in Alaska later today. Since 9:13 EDT, her odds have lowered from 10-to-1 back to 4-5 odds.

I thought Craig standing in front of Invesco looked sort of like the bird's nest....it was sort of an olympian night.

Bear ------------------------

The TRUTH hurts! Joseph Goebbels and Leni Riefenstahl live -- they are working with the SoetorObama campaign.

Regards = Regardless

Need sleep and breakfast...

KGC -- The Country Club Repubs are voting for Obama. LOL

Pogo, today's the big day. Think good thoughts.

Alicia
Now that's the truth.
I voted for Palin in the CQ veep sweepstakes..

I hope McC picks Cantor -- get him out of VA and make room for an Anita Hartke victory .

Apparently Peggy Noonan thought it was a pretty good speech.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121998875327382805.html?mod=todays_columnists

Her assessment of what the repugs need to or at least can do in response sounds like a challenge akin to saying a leopard can change its spots to stripes if it wants to fool the other tigers.

"And I'll tell you, Mr. Obama left a lot of space for Mr. McCain to play the happy warrior next week. He left the Republicans a big opportunity to wield against him, in contrast, humor, and wit, and even something approximating joy."

GODWIN'S LAW ALERT

yet again!

Eric Cantor...yikes. Cantor is personally responsible along with that little creep McHenry for all that Pelosi plane craptastic lies. (and a bunch of other stuff too.) If nothing has gotten done in the House -it can be laid at his feet.

LOL, even Dick Morris is swooning

http://video.newsmax.com/?assetId=V2958317&s=al&promo_code=68C5-1

Flatus, my sincerest best to you, Stinky and the new member of your family. I'm sure she'll be deciding to go to college, changing her major and writing home asking for money soon.

One of my GOP colleagues last night told me that she wasn't happy with McC -- she's very connected with the local committee so I have a feeling that there are more like her. She likes Palin for VP. I asked her -- can the GOP afford to take one of the few unindicted GOPs out of Alaska?

Speculation over McCain veep turns to Alaska gov.
Two GOP strategists close to the McCain campaign said all indications pointed to Palin, a self-styled "hockey mom" and political reformer. The strategists spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized by the McCain camp to discuss the matter. There was no confirmation from McCain or his advisers.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_veepstakes_35

Patsi, pogo and Flatus,

Thanks for your support of my earlier post.

I can add that I thought Obama's speech was effective enough without all the garish rock star trappings.

blond wino,
I agree that if McCain picks a woman, it'll stir up and add spice to the race.

I don't know anything about Sarah Palin. Is she a typical Republican?
I just heard she's only 44.

I just heard Fox news report that it is Sarah Palin.

"At some deep level the Obama campaign seems to think that politics is nothing but showmanship .... they hired Britney Spears' stage designer to convert Invesco field into a heroic Leni Riefenstahl film set. It was the The Triumph of the Shill.

... we have the suppressed biography of Obama's life, and his belated dumping of Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, and even teenage mentor Frank Davis. The "bitter clinger" sneer at Pennsylvanians. Smearing Bill Clinton as a racist. Trying to intimidate the Milt Rosenberg show on Chicago radio station WGN, just because the host was interviewing Stanley Kurtz about the Bill Ayers alliance."

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/08/the_obamababble_showman_plays.html

Wow. If it is Palin, it shows McCain is really going after the women's vote.

If he picks Palin it will be seen for just what it is, pandering, he won't vote for pay equity, he'll fight to have roe overturned, but thinks he can toss you a bone by picking a female, give me a break.

Brian,

Are even capable of having an adult conversation?

I meant:

Are you even capable. . .

The Palin selection for McCain seems pretty transparently cynical and calculating.

lol@ "Triumph of the Shill"

Funny how the adherents are lapping it up. They remind me of North Koreans. The irony is how both begrudging and enthusiastic Obama supporters have analyzed the convention's over-the-top production values without dismissing it for the smoke and mirrors extravaganza it is. Morons.

The Palin pick is not about going after Democratic women voters but generating interest among Republican women

Palin has a very compelling story and has executive experience . Her presence on the ticket will allow people like Christy Todd Whitman and other Republican women to participate ..especially those shut out by Shrub.

Palin is a great package for the gop --a real hunter (moose burger anyone) five kids including one with Downs Syndrome and a corruption fighter. (and she smoked pot when it was still legal in Alaska and doesn't think it should be illegal)

what a cynical ploy if it is Palin.

That said, she's an intriguing up and comer.

"Wow. If it is Palin, it shows McCain is really going after the women's vote."

I agree Marcia.
Ant it's about time someone "pandered" to the women.

Facts a problem for you marcia? What problem do you have my post? I know issues are meaningless to you, but luckily for the nation not to most of the women in the country. If you're so stupid as to find McCain's pandering appealing you not only deserve to be paid less, you shouldn't be entrusted with the education of our youth.

Pro-life isn't an anti-women position. Baby killing just makes some people a little squeamish.

CNN confirms it is Palin.

They are going after the women. About as good as they could do. I doubt it will be enough, but might tighten the race.

Today's Thread

Why McCain wasn't crapping in his pants last night

profmarcia: you hopping over to McCain if it's Palin? Respect for women and all?

MSNBC just confirmed it's palin.

Wiki has already said she's the nominee. See last sentence.

Sarah Heath Palin (born February 11, 1964) is the current Governor of Alaska, and a member of the Republican Party. She is the youngest and first female governor of Alaska. Brought to statewide attention because of her whistleblowing on ethical violations by state Republican Party leaders,[1] she won election in 2006 by first defeating the incumbent governor in the Republican primary, then a former Democratic Alaskan governor in the general election. On August 29, the Associated Press reported that "speculation [has] moved to [Palin as a] darkhorse" pick for the vice president running mate slot by presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.[2] The CNBC news service is now reporting that Palin will in fact be the GOP vice-presidential nominee.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin

Of course, McCain's pick of Palin is calculating and probably pandering, but
it's a clever move. No matter what, those Republicans are devious and will
do anything to win this election. This could shake up the race a lot.

Palin hasn't got too much experience I'm hearing. And I'm also hearing she's
very conservative, not likely to be admired by Hillary women, but you never know.

Joe Biden will mop the floor with her!

dog's eye,

I didn't know you cared. How nice of you to wonder. (LOL)

Chloe

I found the article on the persistence of myths

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/03/AR2007090300933_pf.html

Brian,

Chill out.

Palin doesn't have experience but the 1st Dem that brings that up will be told--"It's not experience that counts--it's judgment."

You gotta love the Republicans. They believe they'll attract women and minorities by throwing any old woman and minority. And they always lose. Palin is a TERRIBLE pick. She VERY conservative.

Have to say -- cynical yes, but it sounds like a good choice given who he was considering. Lieberman and Romney have such high negatives with parts of the GOP base; Pawlenty could not bring McC anything Palin can't....

Revives a moribund campaign. Stops ppl from writing McCain's political obit just yet.

This is a big media story and it stopped the Obama speech story in its tracks

Palin isn't there to get anyone but Republicans

Did anyone see Palin's picture on Drudge. The woman who could be vice president - shows her holding a fish. Classic.
http://www.drudgereport.com/

New thread on the BackChannel Blog

Palin?

http://clistersbackchannel.wordpress.com/

"Palin isn't there to get anyone but Republicans"

and Pumas

I mentioned yesterday that I liked the symetry of Alaska and Hawaii having candidates in this race. That by itself does sort of move things to "The next generation"

He locks in the Evangelicals with the pro life angle. It goes after disaffected women who were to the conservative side of the spectrum of the Clinton supporters. She's young enough to attract the college Republican youth vote. The western states LOVE Alaska as a "last frontier" image.

I think she is the sacrificial lamb though it won't cost her the governorship if and when the ticket loses, but I don't think it would be wise for the Obama team to take it for granted because she embodies a lot of groups.

I remember those women taking to the street for Elizabeth Dole as President and proclaiming her as a trailblazer.... they flocked over and she is recognized today for her historic run....

Mika is so pissed off right now.

If McCain picks a woman VP, it could really sweeten the season.

Posted by: Blonde wino | August 29, 2008 9:51 AM

Woo-hoo....this is going to be a lot more fun than I thought it would be.

Guns guns guns..."she speaks the language of the West"

Palin is very pretty and youthful looking, only a year older than me.

I probably disagree with her on 99% of the important issues, but Palin's going to be quite a contrast standing next to McCain and shake up this campaign.

Pogo

Helpful hint for the semi aged riding rollar coasters: "Let Go!". By hanging on to the bar, you are creating resistance that makes the ride seem rougher than it is. The more you relax, the less the sensation of movement and gforce will be.

This election has really become: pro life v. pro choice

"She VERY conservative."

Mr. D.,
She's a Republican. Isn't she supposed to be conservative?

Still Bush-Cheney's third term, although Palin will have a brighter future than Cheney no matter what happens.

I think there slogan will be something about two mavericks...

The Obama people don't get it because they think everything is about them (after all they are the ones)

McCain isn't going to get Democrats --but he does need to inspire and create enthusiasm among Republicans.

I wonder if McCain will name Palin and announce he's thinking of serving only one term... ie: ladies voting your gender: here's another way to see another serious female contender for president in the very near future

I found Barack Obama's Presidential nomination acceptance speech to be exemplary! He laid out his vision, he directly answered John McCain's attacks, he spoke for a moment of change and the promise of America. He clearly showed a "can-do" spirit, but more than that. He showed specifics on what can and must be done to make America reclaim it's moral character and its standing in the world and at home.

10 stars out of a possible 5.

Obama/Biden 2008

I'm younger than you, Brian.

Age has nothing to do with class. The Obama event lacked class and restraint.

Posted by: prof marcia | August 29, 2008 3:45 AM

Oh, but with the utmost respect, I totally disagree.... And I can't imagine why Barack Obama should be restrained with his nomination speech. He needed to make his case with passion and vision and he accomplished both admirably. He could have just skewered John McCain throughout, but he insisted on recognizing his service to his country and that he is a good man. He answered every challenge that had been thrown at him though, and this needed to be done. I didn't think it COULD be done a even a couple days ago. I proudly admit I was wrong.

KGC, I WANT McCain to appeal to his base. He has a shrinking base and the fight is for the middle. Now the Repubs have chosen someone who will not appeal to independents.

"I wonder if McCain will name Palin and announce he's thinking of serving only one term... ie: ladies voting your gender: here's another way to see another serious female contender for president in the very near future"

Dog, that would be funny actually. Because that would mean Palin and Hillary possibly running against each other.

Hi EuroTom,

Just to be clear, I wasn't referring to Obama's speech. That was just fine. I just didn't like the cheesy fireworks et al.

Now the Repubs have chosen someone who will not appeal to independents.

Posted by: Mr. Democrat | August 29, 2008 11:05 AM

As if raving ideologues such as yourself have any idea what appeals to independents.

Here's some background on Sarah Palin:

http://wonkette.com/223252/join-the-mile-high-club-with-gilf-sarah-palin

Be careful what you wish for..
She is just what evangelicals called for
She will inspire them to turn out

Katherine,

MSN, CNN and Fox are reporting right now that the Palin pick is in fact calculated to go after Hillary's women. The pundits seem to think that's McCain's
plan.

From the NYT article about McBush's choice.

"In choosing Ms. Palin — a 44-year-old conservative Christian and self-described “hockey mom” who has been governor for less than two years — the McCain campaign reached far outside the Beltway in an election where the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama, is running on a platform of change. "

Now let's see, Hillary's supporters were behind her for her experience, her moderation on policies, support for womens' rights, and access to the Big Dog, among other things. And Palin has exactly NONE of these attributes. Now how in god's name does McSame think that she will appeal to disaffected ex-Hillary supporters who supported her for ANY reason other than the fact that she was a woman? Could someone explain this to this once disaffected ex-Hillary supporter, because it makes absofuckinglutely no sense to me.