Hard to tell whether this is intentional or not, but there is a slight upside for John McCain in the scathing press criticism that he is generating with his factually challenged attacks on Barack Obama.

The news media comes across as defending Obama. And that plays right into one of McCain's major themes -- that the press is on Obama's side.

Running against the media is a tradition in Republican presidential campaigns. Provoking reporters to come to Obama's aid fits right in.

This is yet another turnaround for McCain, compared to his 2000 presidential bid. In those days he was the media darling, and it was rival George W. Bush's campaign that sought to portray reporters as in the tank for McCain.

More and more it seems that McCain has adopted the Bush 2000 tactics deployed against him.

If John McCain harbored any intentions of reviving his once-vital role as a Republican Party maverick and crusader against Washington business as usual, the indictment of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens would seem to be the perfect opportunity.

But instead of publicly commenting himself, the expected GOP nominee's response has so far been left to a spokesperson who called the whole thing "sad."

Stevens was a pork barrel powerhouse, and although in the same party as McCain the two often tangled over spending excesses. But McCain's personal silence about the corruption charges against Stevens runs the risk of politically associating him with another scandalous taint on his party's image.

Securing his party's nomination seems to have muted McCain's country-before-party principles. In many ways, McCain was the Republican Barack Obama in the 2000 campaign -- a seemingly genuine voice for changing Washington's ways.

Either he didn't really mean it then, or he has given it up now.

Weeks ago an adviser to John McCain told me they would go "hard negative" against Barack Obama because "if we don't puncture his balloon this summer he will float right out of our hands."

Make no mistake about it. McCain's recent attacks are not isolated incidents. They are part of a long range plan to develop several story lines, or "narratives" as the political pros say, aimed at making Obama seem to be a risky choice for the White House.

Other campaigns I've seen embark upon such a strategy actually plotted this stuff on a calendar, methodically unveiling new charges just as the opponent and the news media were untangling any misrepresentations (or lies) in the last round.

This strategy depends on finding negative narratives that feel sort of true to a lot of voters, concerns that are usually surfaced in focus group polling. Once a promising story line is identified, every day you look for anything -- no matter how minor or misleading -- that might support it. Even stretching the truth, or worse, about a particular episode can work if it fits into a narrative that voters already believe about your opponent.

This is how Al Gore became seen as a serial exaggerator in the 2000 campaign. Many of the charges leveled at him, such as taking credit for the birth of the Internet, were overstated at best. But they fit a pattern that voters saw in Gore.

Consider the Obama arrogance narrative that Republicans are now developing. Even Democratic Party research has shown some voter unease along these lines. That is how McCain might get away with stretching the truth about why Obama didn't meet with injured troops on his foreign trip. (That episode also fits another narrative that the GOP is nurturing -- accusing him of indifference to the military.)

Still, with McCain doing so much of the heavy lifting in his personal remarks and television advertisements, he runs the risk of feeding his own negative narrative as ill-tempered and angry.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"

MSNBC Tonight (7/30) 8:00 PM EST

 

As Veep games go, the Tim Kaine boomlet likely results from one of two places: Either the Virginia governor's enemies leaked his private talk of being a serious candidate or Barack Obama's camp did it as a trial balloon.

We are now entering the final phase of running mate selection in both parties. And typically campaigns look for side-door ways to measure how a particular choice will be received by the news media, their supporters and those in their party who marginally back the presumed presidential nominee. Appeal to independent voters is also under scrutiny as names are leaked.

On the darker side, sometimes a serious running-mate potential is outed by those who do not want them to be picked.

The way in which Kaine's name was floated justifies suspicion that the dark side was afoot. Anonymously quoting him as having confirmed his short-list status is the clue - not the way to make him look good in light of the former Richmond mayor's public disclaimers.

If the dark side is at work, look to close rivals -- and their most powerful advocates -- for a culprit.

Craig on MSNBC Today (7/30)
9am-1pm EST (various times)

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter
(Click screen to play video) 

Craig on MSNBC Wed (7/30)
9am-1pm EST (various times)

What's John McCain up to on affirmative action? By endorsing calls to end racial preferences -- which are destined to be on some state ballots in November -- the expected Republican nominee hopes to put Democrat Barack Obama in a bind.

Obama cannot join McCain in endorsing a formal end to affirmative action, even though a tilt in that direction might serve his aim to be competitive in traditionally conservative states. That would be turning his back on African American voters who were instrumental in his winning bid for the Democratic nomination.

Not surprisingly, Obama is trying to hug the middle of this equation, praising the principle of affirmative action while criticizing quotas. "I am a strong supporter of affirmative action when properly structured so there it is not a quota," Obama said on Sunday at the Unity minority journalism convention in Chicago.

Affirmative action without quotas is not so affirmative and not very active. Which is why Obama's straddle keeps purists grumbling. But he has no choice in the matter. Any backing of racial quotas would undermine his appeal across racial lines.

Expect McCain to keep the pressure on. Pushing Obama either direction out of the mushy center on this issue can only help McCain's chances.

• McCain backs ban on affirmative action in Arizona
• Obama says he's becoming competitive in red states

Now that we know that Jesse Jackson has violent designs on Barack Obama's private parts, wonder what the Kennedys think? Word is that the Democratic Party's royal family is also not as thrilled as they once were with their chosen nominee.

Tilting rightward on issues such as gun rights, government spying and the death penalty is not exactly what supporters like Jackson and the Kennedys signed up for. And putting Caroline Kennedy virtually in charge of the vice presidential search perhaps inconveniently placed the liberal family front and center for witnessing -- to their dismay -- Obama's centrist moves.

Which means that Obama is now under extreme pressure to go left for a running mate. Rising concerns about his fidelity to Kennedyesque ideology make it so. How Obama handles this challenge provides an interesting test of how he would deal with his liberal flank as president.

• Key House Races Shift Towards the Democrats
• Election 2008: House Races to Watch
• CQ 2008 Election Map
• Video: CQ Politics political editor Bob Benenson explains what's behind the Dems' gains

President-in-waiting Barack Obama, having secured conventional wisdom in America, seemed to go much further in Berlin on Thursday -- the presumed Democratic nominee now aspires to be the leader of Earth itself. And why not? Somebody has to.

Perhaps Americans are so desperate to be liked by the rest of the world that Obama is on to something. We've felt insecure to Europeans since our founding. After irritating them for eight years with George W. Bush's macho thing, perhaps we want to be hip again.

But no matter how hip we might think we are, Europeans won't really give us credit. It's all they've got left.

• Obama urges Europeans, Americans to defeat terror
• McCain visits German restaurant _ in Ohio

In a week of disciplined news avoidance on vacation, there were accidental moments of unfortunate exposure to current events:

-- Was that recent footage of John McCain with George Bush the Elder in Maine? Unless they're planning a remake of "The Sunshine Boys," can't imagine what sense that makes.

-- Apparently, every day was Casual Friday for Barack Obama in the Middle East. Hey, if the Age of Obama is about nuking the necktie, I'm on board.

-- Randomly catching television video (usually without sound) I must say that McCain ought to stop awkwardly laughing at his own jokes. His weird facial contortions make it difficult to tell whether he is laughing or crying.

-- Turn off the sound for Obama press conferences. Turning up the volume tarnishes the "brand," because he sounds like the stultifying drone of an airplane engine.

-- On my ever-loving intersection of politics and culture, don't miss Meryl Streep in the brand new film version of "Mama Mia." Her superbly poignant rendition of ABBA's "The Winner Takes It All" got me thinking about what Hillary might sing to Barack.

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Your host is on vacation, returning Thursday, July 24. But, of course, Trail Mix never stops thanks to our band of regulars. Click "Comments" in the line above to read or join the gang.

-- Craig    

Well, maybe scandal is too strong a word, but the week begins with more than a few dustups on the campaign trail . . .

• So, the New Yorker magazine thought it was "satire" to front a caricature of the Obamas as terrorists. If the point was to ridicule right wing smears, why not do cover art depicting Rush Limbaugh painting the cartoon.
• John McCain lets slip that he is just now learning how to use a computer (says he can "watch" the web???). No big deal, really. Presidents must shy away from using email anyway. Because most anyone they correspond with would then be subject to subpoena.
• Barack Obama denies flip-flopping. It's more like the expected Democratic nominee is finally filling in the blanks he never had to fill during the primaries. Sort of like how Vanna White became a national phenomenon turning letters on Wheel of Fortune while never saying a word. But when she started giving interviews, singing and writing a book, she wasn't special anymore.
• Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger says he's open to a job in an Obama Administration after finishing up as governor of California? McCain didn't need that. But hardly surprising -- Schwarzenegger is sounding more like his Democratic in-laws with every interview he gives.
• The best news for McCain so far this week is that finally he is in the news more than the Clintons. That can't last.

There was a time months ago -- when Hillary Rodham Clinton led the Democratic nomination race -- that party superdelegates were the bad guys according to the rhetoric coming out of Barack Obama's camp.

Obama supporters trashed the unelected, automatic and unpledged delegates as undemocratic autocrats when it looked as though they might put Clinton over the top. Not anymore.

With the dust settled on the primary season, one thing is clear: Obama is the presumed nominee thanks only to superdelegates. He never did win enough pledged delegates to reach the winning number, falling about 350 votes short. His expected victory stems from beating Clinton among superdelegates 463-257, according to a tally on Real Clear Politics.

All the more reason for Obama to make sure that there is no roll call including Clinton's name on the ballot at the national convention -- which a few die hard fans of the former First Lady are still clamoring for.

Why highlight just how close the Democratic contest really was? And there is certainly no gain for Obama in dwelling on how he had to depend on superdelegates to win the nomination.

• Clinton Diehards Want Convention Vote (CQ Politics)
• Research Shows Primaries Were As Negative As You Thought (CQ Politics)

Craig on "Verdict" with Dan Abrams
Tonight (7/14) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST

CQ Politics has introduced two new blogs to the lineup:

Spy Talk, by CQ National Security Editor Jeff Stein, will keep you up to date on those consipracy theories that are actually true.

VP Watch, by CQ correspondent Jonathan Allen, keeps track of the twists and turns in picking presidential running mates.

The latest from our CQ Politics Blog Network:

• David Corn: The Gramm Gaffe: The Real Problem for McCain
• Taegan Goddard: Beware of Running Mate Rumors
• VP Watch: Clinton Respecting 'Privacy of the Process'
• David Nather: Obama-Dodd? Not After That FISA Vote
• SpyTalk: Italian Police Name CIA Contacts in Kidnap Trial
• Eric Pfeiffer: GOP Platform Goes Open Source
• Poll Tracker: Eye on the Senate: Our Round-Up of State Polls

It is a staple of "gotcha" journalism, catching politicians breaking their word but refusing to admit it. It is great sport among civilians too. Failing to keep track of promises - yours and others - can get you in trouble. Shifting stance without getting caught is one of the most difficult strokes in the art of politics.

"A prudent ruler cannot, and must not, honor his word when it places him at a disadvantage and when the reasons for which he made his promise no longer exist."
-- Niccolo Machiavelli

Catching politicians breaking promises or contradicting their past words is a favorite past-time for the news media.  Rarely do the accused ever say, "Yeah, I changed my mind." Usually they struggle to make changing positions appear consistent, with varying degrees of skill and success.

For most people, it might be more effective -- and certainly more honest -- to simply admit a change of mind. But conventional politics is all about the art of flip-flopping without saying you've done so. For candidates the motto is: Never keep your word if circumstances change -- and always keep your words as vague as possible to preserve your options for later revision.

• Focus on Flip-Flops: McCain Edition (Politifact)
• Voters Say Both Candidates Flip-Flop (Poll Tracker)

Iran's Missile Tests. A news music video edited by Craig Crawford. "We Will Rock You" (Elektra Records, 1977).

• Is Obama Talking Too Tough on Iran? (David Corn)
• State Department Official Downplays Iran's Strategic Influence (CQ Today)

For the weirdness of our politics these days, look no further than how the party controlling Congress -- the Democrats -- drove down its popularity to unprecedented single digits while still somehow running strong for gaining seats.

Or consider how the expected Republican presidential nominee John McCain, who seems down for the count in the latest Electoral College projections, still polls significantly better than his own party.

Such weirdness suggests a volatile "market" in our politics -- or perhaps Americans are just plain confused about how to distinguish their unhappiness with institutions from their relative content with personalities.

While the Democratic Congress might be as unpopular as the Legislative Branch has ever been, the party managed to recruit candidates -- even in GOP strongholds -- who are demonstrating appeal to voters. And while the GOP under George W. Bush is about as popular as a sharp stick in the eye, McCain retains a level of personal appeal that keeps him fairly competitive.

Still, the counterintuitive data out there points to how the tables could churn by November.

• Public Approval of Congress Hits New Low: Poll (CQ Politics)
• Congress Approval Ratings at a New Low (Poll Tracker)
• House Republican Numbers in Jeopoardy (House Balance of Power Scorecard)
• Senate Democrats Set to Gain (Senate Balance of Power Scorecard)

Craig on MSNBC
Wednesday July 9
9:00 / 10:00 / 11:00 AM EST

 

There seems to be no question that if the presidential election were held today, Democrat Barack Obama would win the Electoral College in a landslide. We're talking 300-plus votes, well beyond the 270 needed to win the White House.

Republican John McCain could not be in a worse position. His only hope is that the election is four months away and something could change.

To remain viable, McCain must convince the purveyors of conventional wisdom that the opinion polls are somehow wrong. Perhaps the methodologies of surveys in battleground states are horribly mistaken - it wouldn't be the first time - but making such a case seems remarkably dicey at this juncture.

If there is danger for Obama in this situation, it is that his apparent invincibility comes so soon that by Election Day he will seem to be the incumbent -- a candidate so presumed to win that he actually comes across as having already won. Which makes McCain the true challenger and underdog.

And America loves an underdog.

Craig on MSNBC
Wednesday July 9
9:00 / 10:00 / 11:00 AM EST

 

Reported by CQ's Jonathan Allen, Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain are both heavily courting the Latino vote, a crucial part of the electorate.

• Immigration Not the Only Issued That's Key to Latino Vote (CQ Politics)
• Where Obama's Edge Among Hispanics May Be Important (Poll Tracker)
• McCain, Obama Court Hispanic Voters (AP)
• Through Ads, Candidates Vie For Hispanic Voters (NPR)
• Gallup: Obama dominates McCain among Hispanics (AFP)
• Analysis: Rivals hide immigration similarities (AP)

A video tribute to Thomas Jefferson, author of The Declaration of American Independence (July 4, 1776). Read by Bill Barker of Williamsburg, VA. Edited by Craig Crawford.

Happy Fourth Trail Mixers!

Who's Your Favorite Founder? Now on Facebook
(Our Trail Mix home for your non-political needs)

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

In today's Video Trail Mix, Craig looks at how Sen. Barack Obama is aggressively battling against smears with speeches on patriotism and faith.

Craig on HuffPo:
For McCain, it's Jobs First in Mexico

CQ Politics readers picked Obama-Clark vs. McCain-Huckabee for the 2008 presidential campaign matchups.

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark edged out Delaware Sen. Joe Biden on Wednesday in the online reader survey, despite a late-breaking controversy over the Democrat's recent claim that expected GOP nominee John McCain should not get extra points as a potential commander in chief for "riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down."

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee bested the Republican field in May, according to CQ Politics readers who participated in VP Madness.

Clark and Huckabee are not bad choices. Barack Obama could use Clark's national security credentials. And McCain might well be drawn to Huckabee's firm support among Christian evangelicals.

While Clark's harsh remarks about McCain's war record might unnerve some, it shows his willingness to directly target one of the Republican's major strengths. Which often is the running mate's job.

It is a simple question: Does the President of the United States have any authority for direct or covert (or privately contracted) action against Iran without congressional approval?

But it is a question that official Washington prefers not to answer. Why? Because the answer is that both major party nominees want to preserve the option to conduct war against Iran without congressional approval.

Congress itself enables this final end to its constitutionally-given powers. Why? Hell if I know. It is just how things are.

You would think that if Americans learned anything in the debacle that the Iraq War turned out to be, it would be that the nation's founders were absolutely correct in establishing Congress as the sole power for declaring war. Only in this way can the people play a direct role in deciding whether it is necessary to send their children to their deaths abroad.

The lesson, while learned, has not been instilled in law. During George W. Bush's tenure, Congress has passed on every opportunity to assert its war powers.

No matter who wins the presidency, the power to make war remains in the White House.