It's North Carolina, Stupid

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While the nail biter in Indiana stole the show on Tuesday night, it was Barack Obama’s massive lead in North Carolina’s popular vote that shapes the next stage of the Democratic nomination race.

Obama’s net gain of more than 200,000 votes in North Carolina almost exactly matches Hillary Rodham Clinton’s net gain last month in Pennsylvania. This matters because it now seems all but impossible for Clinton to eventually claim a lead in overall national popular vote without counting Florida and Michigan.

Clinton had hoped that at the end of the primaries early next month she would be able to counter Obama’s insurmountable lead in elected delegates by arguing to party superdelegates that the will of the voters was on her side because she won the nationwide popular vote.

Obama’s North Carolina blowout means that even if Clinton wins big in upcoming states her popular-vote claim will depend on counting her victories in Florida and Michigan -- a dicey prospect, at best, given the party’s fractious wrangling over whether to seat the contested delegates from those states.

 

    Comments

  1. you were great on cspan tonight craig.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:40 AM

  2. Who's first?

    Posted by: harborwoman Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:42 AM

  3. Good job, nanny! Long time, no see....

    Posted by: harborwoman Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:43 AM

  4. thanks, nannymm. i love c-span callers.

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:44 AM

  5. It's so hard...to say goodbye...to Billary....

    Posted by: Bye Bye Billary | May 7, 2008 12:44 AM

  6. i guess i was harbor. but no joy in it tonight

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:44 AM

  7. Just can't bring yourself to admit can you Craig, Obama has won. I guess I'll just have to be satisfied with Russert's pronouncement.

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:45 AM

  8. Yes, Craig, you were great on C-span tonight. But ... are you really tired of us?

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:45 AM

  9. Yep...Hillary doesn't seem ready to face it, but I think her run is over.

    Posted by: harborwoman Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:46 AM

  10. i've been here, harbor. just don't post except once in a blue moon. . i hate all the conflict and don't want to get caught up in it.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:47 AM

  11. Warren -- Shark-snarking sharks are exempt from mis-fired jokes. You're wise to keep your day job.

    XXOO

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:49 AM

  12. brian, it has never been my practice to declare winners until they win 50% plus one of the votes needed for victory. i don't care who's running or what they're running for, you will always have to depend on others for that sort of satisfaction.

    alicia, i think what i said was, i am tired of obama and clinton folks bashing each other. which is what i've said in here many times. the personal insults and unkind remarks are horrifingly unpleasant to read.

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:51 AM

  13. craig, does the reporting ,or lack thereof, from lake county seem odd to you?

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:52 AM

  14. Warren

    Missouri was not big for Obama. He barely won here, and I have said all along that I do not believe he would have won if we had not had horrible tornados which traveled along the entire southern section of Missouri (Hillary country--borders ARK) during the hours of approx. 3:30-4:00 through the end of the polling period. Thousands of people just getting off work did not or could not vote because of the severe weather.

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:55 AM

  15. my hunch, nannymm, is that they don't have the votes to give obama the win, but they held the returns to make sure the morning papers cannot report a clinton win. but that's only a hunch.

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:56 AM

  16. yes, craig. that is exactly what you said and i applaud you for it. not only are the"personal insults and unkind remarks...horrifyingly unpleasant to read," they are a deterrent to some of us who might otherwise have something to contribute.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:59 AM

  17. Missouri was a big victory for Obama regardless of the margin of victory, big Midwestern blue collar state.

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 12:59 AM

  18. Craig such a skeptic, LOL

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:05 AM

  19. I went to look at the Indiana Secretary of State's website -- found the training program for election officials. According to this, the Obama voter assistance table was not allowed.

    http://mediaserver.ihets.org/vod/government/secstate/pollworker/chapter3.wmv

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:07 AM

  20. Yup.
    This was a blow to me...... have to be quite honest.
    But, it was not unexpected. The AA community led him to victory yet again....

    But no fuzz.

    We need to go to WV to do the blowout there next week and then the next blowout in KY...We need to blow those two out, and get the victory in Guam
    Then need to seat FL and Mi.

    it ain´t over yet......
    Dont lose faith people. keep on truckin!

    Posted by: Jason | May 7, 2008 1:15 AM

  21. Here is the Indiana Election guidebook. The relevant information on who is and who i not allowed in polling places is found on page 7. Still doesn't look like the Obama "voter assistance" table is kosher.

    http://www.in.gov/sos/elections/hava/pdf/EDH_08.pdf

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:18 AM

  22. Ok folks you can breath MSNBC just called Hillary the apparent winner in Indiana.

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:18 AM

  23. Okay, you keep thinking that. On to Canada and Mexico and Bolivia...

    Posted by: Bye Bye Billary | May 7, 2008 1:20 AM

  24. The vote counting in Lake County, IND, is getting a lot
    of notice and I wander what is going to be made of it. There seems to be some animosity b etween sections of the county. Maybe not even worth commenting on, but it's right next store to Cook County

    I HATE the way the DNC calls it proportionate allocation of delegates. It's just the big shots getting to tweak election counts.It should be one man one vote and it isn't. It's no better than winner take all, and maybe worse. That's why I'm an Independent - I have this thing about kowtowing to authority which has no real basis to be authority.

    Posted by: bethyboo Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:20 AM


  25. I agree that it has been a stressful experience here lately. I have been reading and not posting also because I haven't wanted to get into the middle of all the arguing and name calling. I love politics and always have coming from a political family. Craig has been my favorite pundit for years. I love to check in to see what he is thinking. But I hesitate to post anything because the venom is so potent.

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:24 AM

  26. Alicia,
    Makes sense they should have been run off in that precinct. Who knows why they weren't. Surely this couldn't have happened in every precinct, guessing there are 1000s throughout the state. She won anyway.

    Posted by: Rezdog Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:26 AM

  27. Craig - Have you ever sat inside a polling place or BOE to count the votes as they come in? I have sat through many a late election night in those god-forsaken places enough to be skeptical about your premise that they held the votes to prevent the newspapers from reporting the votes. (Who reads papers these days anyway? Don't we ALL get our news online?)
    Vote counting can be a maddening and messy process with many steps in a painstaking process, especially when county absentee and paper ballots, even more so when electronics snafus are factored in.

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:29 AM

  28. Jason, t
    The AA community led Bill Clinton to victory in NC in 92 too. So what's the big deal.

    Posted by: Rezdog Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:29 AM


  29. Well I guess since the margin of victory doesn't matter Hillary just had a big win in Indiana. You know, big midwestern blue collar state.

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:29 AM

  30. Finally

    We won Indiana..!!!!!!! MSM called it....
    Now relax for one day and move on to Kentucky and West Virginia.
    Dont know about Oregon
    But Puerto Rico should be ours..

    Come on gang.......We should be content. We defied the odds and came back form 165 down to win by 2% that is an 18% change.
    We lost NC by 13% that means we made up 7%.....

    Again we won a state that Barrack PROCLAIMED he would win!!!!!!

    We WON!!!!!

    Carry on and start donating! If we start getting depressed we cannot carry HRC to the white house

    Her is my first $ 100 for the next primary
    Let´s goooooooooooooooooooooooo

    Who matches me....??

    Posted by: Jason | May 7, 2008 1:32 AM

  31. Save your money..:)

    Posted by: Rezdog Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:36 AM

  32. Oh
    A news anchor here said it just now: "Again Barrack Obama was unable to seal the deal!"

    Now only if MSM was able to report that in the US

    Anywho,
    Clinton is to meet with key Super Delegates today, and cancelling most appearances (just reported from a source)

    Posted by: Jason | May 7, 2008 1:37 AM

  33. ok, alicia, so mebbe i am too suspicious but other counties in indiana faced the same issues without such problems. perhaps i spent too much time watching katherine harris manipulate the release of voting returns in 2000

    good night all, and come back in the morning when i'll have a little video treat for ya

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:38 AM

  34. true, jason if you still want to believe Hillary is still in this go for it. Hey no skin off my nose.

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:40 AM

  35. STICK A FORK IN HILLARY. SHE APPEARS DONE.

    Why do I oppose Hillary? She has taken money by BIG PHARMA and BIG HEALTH INSURANCE.

    OH and John McDeath military service appears the candied cherry atop the REPUBLIKLAN PArty TURD of death, deception, and lies. The cherry may look good but you don't want a Republiklan FDA, Labor Department, NASA, FEMA, MSHA and other agencies run by the Republiklan party that has either killed people or stole their money.

    Take back America. go to http://democratz.org

    Posted by: www.democratz.org | May 7, 2008 1:40 AM

  36. Rez --- You don't need to put those kinds of things in EVERY precinct -- only CERTAIN precincts. But thank you anyway, for agreeing that they should have been run-off.

    INDY sets the electioneering limit at 50 feet, in VA it's 40 feet. Usually my GOP counterpart will decide together where the line is. If it's raining or snowing and there's an awning the line is always under the awning. In 2003, 2004 and 2005 the weather was freakishly hot -- climbing into the 90s in Nov. I started packing sunscreen in my poll kits and the GOP guys and I decided that the 40 foot line was in the shade.

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:41 AM

  37. A big discussion now on the mayor of Gary....
    Think I missed most of it in the night...What happened?

    I hear fraud and him making a big fuzz over releasing information..... LOL. He seems stoned....LMPO

    What is the difference now in popular vote?

    Posted by: Jason | May 7, 2008 1:43 AM

  38. What seems to puzzle me, is that Obama was expected to win NC by a big margin, and Indiana also.
    He kept NC in double digits, but he lost Indiana..

    So why are you let down? Come on......

    LOL...
    We won Indiana folks. That is how it is.
    Now lets move on to the blow out we are expected to have in WV and KY

    Posted by: Jason | May 7, 2008 1:47 AM

  39. Jason,

    I sent Hillary another $50 tonight.

    At 8 a.m. I'm meeting another volunteer for sign holding during morning drive time.

    Then to telephone at headquarters...

    Excellent speech by Hillary tonight..

    Better get to bed soon..lots of work to do Wednesday..

    Posted by: Oregon Democrat | May 7, 2008 1:48 AM

  40. Obama scored a net gain of 14 delegates tonight. Hey OD, hows it hanging?

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:50 AM

  41. Good night Craig! We'll try to be good. I promise I will work on my aloha not be so hateful. Who knows, maybe some of us will one day become the McCain voters you seek to spice it up. (Not me, but maybe some others?)

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:50 AM


  42. I will be for whoever is the nominee. I actually would prefer Hillary because I admire her alot. Met her a couple of times when she was first lady of Ark. She is one of those people that if you were bouncing vibes off them they would be coming right back at you. Very solid person.
    But I do not dislike Obama. I just get the feeling there is more than we know. Seems to have a pinky finger touching alot of "interesting" people. I just wonder if there is more out there that we should know about. I wish he had more experience, but that can be overcome with the right support. I just don't want to screw up the fall.

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:53 AM

  43. All right OD....

    Sleep well. Am @ work allready.....
    Send in my 100 greenbacks, so HRC can go on.

    Posted by: Jason | May 7, 2008 1:54 AM

  44. I just sent Billary $.25. That should make a dent in her $5 million dollar loan to herself.

    Posted by: Bye Bye Billary | May 7, 2008 1:56 AM

  45. Good Night Jason and all the other nice people!

    Posted by: Oregon Democrat | May 7, 2008 1:57 AM

  46. Barack Obama has more experience than Abraham Lincoln when he ran for President. I hope that appears enough for you. If Hillary somehow gets the nomination. I will abstain from voting for President and vote for the other offices on the ballot.

    IF Hillary wins, so does big pharma and big health insurance.


    Take back America go to http://democratz.org

    Posted by: www.democratz.org | May 7, 2008 1:57 AM

  47. Bye Bye my gut says the Hillary campaign is about 20 million in debt by this time.

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 1:59 AM

  48. JASON! You come on in the middle of the night to shine your sunbeams on us. THANK YOU!

    Oregon -- Bring it in for us, babay.

    As Scarlett said, "Tomorrow is ano-thah daay!"

    Ahuihou, y'all.

    Posted by: Alicia Knight Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 2:03 AM

  49. In NC and Indiana, they stood on flatbed trucks. For WV and Kentucky, they'll stand next to moonshine stills and whittle. A band will play the tune to Petitcoat Junction. In order to get votes, Hillary will tell the hillbillies that she's against "revenuers".

    Posted by: Bye Bye Billary | May 7, 2008 2:04 AM

  50. cool, Stephanie Miller is on.

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 2:08 AM


  51. Didn't we have a civil war under Abraham Lincoln? Slavery most definitely needed to be abolished but isn't it just possible that a more experienced president might have found a way to do it without splitting the country apart and killing hundreds of thousands of people?

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 2:08 AM


  52. In my opinion anyone who abstains from voting just because they didn't get their way on the nominee is not only a fairweather democrat, but they will get what they deserve in President John Mc Cain. That is a childish way of looking at things.

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 2:13 AM

  53. Uh, no.

    Posted by: Bye Bye Billary | May 7, 2008 2:13 AM

  54. Obama better hope that Hannity is wrong.

    Posted by: GORDO | May 7, 2008 2:22 AM

  55. Obama won because of the racist vote. 90% of blacks voted for him.

    One thing that this primary showed is that white has become tolerant and the black showed its ugly RACIAL head.

    Posted by: politicsIsdirty | May 7, 2008 2:31 AM

  56. Gordo,
    what do you mean?

    Truebeliever,
    I will NOT vote in the fall if he is the nominee. I have made it clear and it is due to several reasons. Not because I think he is not up to speed...
    But mostly the side factors being:
    1. The DNC
    2. The DNC
    3. The DNC

    They have shown no leadership at all, and have never had a clear stand on the issues. They drove Clinton into the thick of things time and time again.

    I will be an independent no matter what the outcome. More and more I feel let down by this party.
    If you want to label me not a true demcorat it is okay. if it is childish, it is okay
    I do believe that this party under this leadership sold the election to the republicans by not showng the decency to take responsiblity and showing courageous leadership!

    Posted by: Jason | May 7, 2008 2:35 AM

  57. Ok folks, get it all our of your system, we got a general win!

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 2:36 AM


  58. Jason
    I agree that this whole thing was conducted in a sucky manner. The whole process was just stupid, from the DNC's rules, to the shafting that Hillary got on so many levels. But how are you going to feel if you stay home and we get a president Mc Cain ravaging our country and allowing our sons and daughters to die in a ridiculous war. I can't do that.

    Things may not be how I wished them to be, but I am not going to take my ball and go home, and leave my hopes and my beliefs just hanging out there. I don't ever want to stop working for what I believe to be the common good. Then I would be just like all those partisan politicians in Washington who ask what is in it for them before they will vote on policy that will affect millons of people.

    I want her to when too. More than I could probably explain to you, because it is personal to me. But, the sun will come up anyway even if she doesn't win. I wouldn't want it any other way.

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 2:53 AM

  59. Another point to keep in mind truebeliever, in terms of policy there is little that separates Obama and Clinton.

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 2:57 AM

  60. Obama hasn't wrapped it up and Hillary isn't quitting. Don't count your chickens before they hatch is what my mom always used to say.

    Craig, I really enjoy you on Imus!

    Posted by: Emhay Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 3:01 AM


  61. I do understand that there are alot of similarities between the two. But like I said it was a personal thing with me. It is part of the reason why I haven't posted much. It was on my sleeve. It is going to hurt if she doesn't get the nom. But that is just me. I am ultimately more concerned about beating the repugs in the fall. So many important things ride on that.

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 3:03 AM

  62. Something else that needs to said, I think we can all agree that by universal acclaim Hillary was at her very best since wining in PA. It was while campaigning at her very best that she suffered her fatal blow in North Carolina.

    We have a nominee!

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 3:05 AM

  63. CNN's John King raked Gary's mayor over the coals and wouldn't let up. It was ugly. The mayor said the unprecedented 11,000 early votes to count overwhelmed the vote-counters, and they wanted to get it right.
    King ridiculed the mayor and compared it to the speedy returns of Marion County (Indianapolis).
    I know one thing...Gary and Hammond holding the release of the election past the closing of MSNBC's Tweety & Keith Show was upsetting to Keith, and Anderson Cooper said the CNN staff was gorging on the last crumbs of cornbread, all they had left to eat.
    Before signing off, Tweety said the NW Indiana returns were 'history in the making' and a bunch of other mushy stuff....I think he thought Obama was going to overtake HRC.
    Hillary vowed to go to Kentucky and West Virginia and other states...she ain't quitting , but now the only hope , I believe, is a real scary skeleton to emerge from Obama's closet.
    Still...after the Harris/Florida debacle in 2000 and the Ken Blackwell fiasco in Ohio in 2004, I know how US politics is much more than what John Q. Public conceives it to be in his mind.
    Still, Obama must be singing,
    "Nuthin' but blue skies
    From now on."

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 3:06 AM

  64. Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 3:19 AM

  65. David Axelrod, the top Obama strategist, told reporters that Barack Obama would compete for the six remaining Democratic contests, where 217 delegates are at stake. But he said that the campaign would soon focus on the general election because likely Republican nominee John McCain had “basically run free for some time now because we’ve been consumed with this." He added: “I don’t think we’re going to spend time solely in primary states.”


    Pressed by reporters whether that meant the campaign would make stops in general election states over the next month, Axelrod said: “You could infer that from what I said.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/north-carolina-indiana-pr_n_100400.html

    Posted by: BrianInNYC Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 3:40 AM

  66. Jason, I'll contribute again because I truly believe we are headed into MGovern territory. Congrats to the Obama crowd. And good luck to you in the general.

    Posted by: Patsi Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 5:52 AM

  67. They better find an old yeller dog to put on the ballot because he is who I am voting for. Not McCan and not BO. Never BO.. just cannot make myself do it. Yes I was a loyal democrat and my family has voted democrat every election since 1800's as far back as I can find info. Going Independent. Have had enough if BO get nomination.

    Julie

    Posted by: Julie Young 73 | May 7, 2008 6:05 AM

  68. Watching Obama last night, this works for me - SNOBama.

    Posted by: GORDO | May 7, 2008 6:21 AM

  69. Good article - somewhat long, last 3 or 4 paragraphs are the story.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/random_events.html

    Julie

    Posted by: Julie Young 73 | May 7, 2008 6:29 AM

  70. ..it's not a mater of not voting for someone because you didn't get you way. I don't think anyone really knows where BHO is on real issues. It's all just "change,chane,change", what exactly does he expect to change?
    He may look like he has weathered the Wright storm for now to some, but to me it has shown how really weak he is. Between the stamering and stuttering he hasen't even given a definite answer there.
    it's a problem

    Posted by: NelsonDecker Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 8:39 AM

  71. I keep hearing stories from AA that say are being pressured to vote for BHO, is this true? if so why isn't it a bigger story? It certainly would be if it were the other way around!
    Maybe politics should be blind. BHO is half white half Kenyan, to me he is just an American. My paternal grandmother was black, my maternal grandmother was crow indian, I am an American.

    Posted by: NelsonDecker Author Profile Page | May 7, 2008 9:04 AM

  72. Once again, I am hearing how wonderful O's speech was last night. It didn't sound sincere to me. It had all the right words but something was missing. He will be problem candidate for the democrats.

    Posted by: liz | May 7, 2008 11:49 AM

  73. Obama -- Never.

    Posted by: Liz | May 7, 2008 11:53 AM

  74. African Americans voted for Obama for no other reason than he was black, does that make them racist? I think it says that racism is just as prevalent in the black community as the white community.

    Posted by: Kudzu | May 7, 2008 1:28 PM

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