May 2008 Archives

Barack in Charge

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Make no mistake about it. The decision rendered today by the Democratic National Committee's rules panel showed that Barack Obama has displaced Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, as boss of the party.

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee gave Obama exactly what he wanted - a firm decision on seating Florida and Michigan delegates. Even though Clinton wins a small net gain in nominating delegates, it is not enough to seriously boost her chances for the nomination.

No decision would have best served Clinton today. Her nomination hopes are dependent on a chaos theory, which would have been best supported by keeping the status of Florida and Michigan in limbo.

Losing what they needed today proves that for the first time in 16 years the Clintons are no longer in charge of the Democratic Party. There is a new boss in town.

Democrats Compromise, Will Seat Florida and Michigan Delegations (CQ Politics)

 

Beginning the End to a Beginning

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The longest, closest and most expensive campaign for any party's presidential nomination in recent memory now approaches conclusion. Democratic contender Hillary Rodham Clinton herself signaled as much on Friday, predicting that party superdelegates are now ready to render a verdict.

"People are going to start making up their minds," Clinton told reporters. "I think that is the natural progression that one would expect."

If all goes as expected, shortly after the close of the primary season on Tuesday we will see the final demise of American history's most competitive presidential candidacy by a woman.

And thus begins an epic struggle between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, American history's most competitive African-American contender for the White House.

Clinton Expects Superdelegates to Decide Next Week (AP)

 

Let's Make a Deal

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Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Now on C-Span.org
Craig talks about presidential politics
with C-Span's Steve Scully
and students at the University of Denver (5/29)

 

DNC Aggravated 'FLOR-IGAN' Dispute

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Yet another myth in the Florida-Michigan saga is a widely-held belief that Democratic Party rules required stripping the states of all convention delegates as punishment for leapfrogging the primary calendar.

Party rules required only that the number of delegates from a state in violation of the official calendar "shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent." The Democratic National Committee's rules chiefs decided last year to use their power to add further punishment, reducing Florida and Michigan delegations by 100 percent.

That is why the DNC rules panel, which meets on Saturday to hear the case, is considered likely to go back to the automatic 50-percent reduction. Although don't be surprised if the panel renders no decision this weekend, instead waiting until next week to make a ruling after the official close of primary season.

Had the DNC stuck with its mandatory rule and only halved the Florida and Michigan delegations (as Republicans did), there would be no dispute to resolve.

Michigan Infighting on Delegate Dilemma
(CQ Politics)

 

Craig on "Verdict with Dan Abrams"
Tonight (5/29) MSNBC 9:45 PM EST

 

Now on C-Span.org
Craig talks about presidential politics with C-Span's Steve Scully and students at the University of Denver (5/29)

 

Obama's Michigan Forfeit

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Among the myths surrounding the Democratic fight over seating delegates from Florida and Michigan, one that stands out is a persistent inference that Barack Obama was somehow involuntarily kept off the Michigan primary ballot.

Obama chose to have his name erased from the Michigan ballot -- a decision that now presents one of the thorniest issues for the Democratic National Committee's rules panel meeting on Saturday to hear arguments in this dispute.

How can delegates be awarded to someone who was not even on the ballot? In sports, that would be like giving points to a team that forfeits the game.

The Obama camp signaled on Wednesday that the Democratic frontrunner is willing to concede some Florida and Michigan delegates to Hillary Rodham Clinton, but questions such as what to do about Obama's Michigan forfeit still hang. 

It was the Illinois senator's written and personally signed request to the Michigan Secretary of State's office on Oct. 8, 2007, that prompted his exclusion. Obama's choice to stay off the ballot was a conscious political maneuver designed to please Iowa Democrats angered by Michigan's early primary date.

Clinton, to her detriment in Iowa, chose to stay on Michigan's ballot. As strange as some of Clinton's demands might seem to be in this matter, it would be truly bizarre to give any Michigan delegates to a candidate who voluntarily took his name off the ballot.

 

Why Are Democrats Afraid of Florida?

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Myths abound in the latest Florida vote-count fight. For starters, this is not the fault of state Democratic leaders. The Republican-controlled state legislature, directed by its GOP governor Charlie Crist, created this situation.

Sure, Florida Democrats did not vigorously oppose the Republican plan to move up Florida's primary on the calendar, defying the rules in both parties. Instead, they negotiated a deal to ensure a paper trail in all future balloting.

And for their efforts in leveraging a position of weakness to gain something helpful for future elections, Florida Democrats get hammered by a Democratic National Committee intent on diminishing the state's influence in naming a presidential nominee.

Why did national Democrats fear Florida so much? It is, after all, the nation's largest swing state.

 

HBO's Next Florida Thriller?

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The airing this week of HBO's riveting new film about the 2000 electoral meltdown in Florida seems especially poignant for a week that is set to end with a contentious hearing of the state's latest vote-counting squabble.

HBO's "Recount" brilliantly weaves a coherent narrative through the intricate legal maneuverings of Florida's decisive role in Republican George W. Bush's election eight years ago. But as Bill Clinton recently noted now it's the Democrats who are trying to disenfranchise Florida voters.

On Saturday the Democratic National Committee's rules panel meets in Washington to hear arguments from Florida and Michigan party leaders trying to reverse the DNC's decision to exclude their states from the national nominating convention as punishment for flouting the official primary calendar.

But as happened in 2000, the winner in this fight is likely to be the side arguing that Florida's votes should not be counted. The Bush team beat Al Gore's camp in the end by convincing the U.S. Supreme Court to halt a recount.

The DNC went even further, by not counting any votes cast in Florida and Michigan for the purposes of choosing the party's 2008 presidential nominee.

This Just In -- Huck CQ's VP

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Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Former Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee was CQ Politics readers' choice for John McCain's running mate. Craig explores the upsides and downsides to Huckabee as Vice President.
(Click "PLAY VIDEO" in screen above)

 

State Dispute Imperils Dem Endgame

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Might Hillary Rodham Clinton carry her crusade for Florida and Michigan beyond her own presidential campaign?

Interviewed in Florida on Wednesday, the struggling Democratic hopeful vowed to go all the way to the national convention if necessary to seat delegates from the renegade states. "I will consult with Floridians and the voters in Michigan because it's really their voices that are being ignored and their votes that are being discounted, and I'll support whatever the elected officials and the voters in those two states want to do." (AP, 5/21)

While many assume that Clinton's vow includes a threat to take her own candidacy to the convention floor, that is not necessarily the case. Clinton could suspend her campaign in June, as some think she will do unless her fortunes rapidly change, and still seek leverage for deal-making at the convention by continuing to champion the cause for Florida and Michigan.

Of course, at any moment Barack Obama could end the whole matter by signaling to the Democratic National Committee that he accepts seating the state delegations now barred for violating party rules on scheduling primaries.

But Obama might not be comfortable with seating Florida and Michigan, even if he gathers enough superdelegate endorsements for a winning majority and Clinton suspends her campaign. She could always revive her candidacy if something suddenly reversed Obama's chances, causing unbound delegates to waver. And in such circumstances, the two large-state delegations (which gave Clinton the lion's share of their primary votes) could become a crucial factor if Obama had earlier agreed to seat them.

Clinton is best served by a failure to resolve the dispute before the August convention, giving her a platform to make trouble all summer -- even if her own campaign has gone into hibernation.

 

Huckabee vs. Palin in VP Finals

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huckabee.jpg

Palin.jpg

Mike Huckabee beat heavy-duty competition to reach the last round in VP Madness (GOP Edition) against Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Vote Now
Final round ends tomorrow (5/22) at Noon EST

Secretary of State Condi Rice, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty all fell away in earlier pairings against Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and unsuccessful 2008 presidential candidate.

Palin beat Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Bush Budget Director Rob Portman.

The Democratic contest begins as soon as a nominee is set.

 

Obama Begins to End Dem Race

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Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Craig's Webcam edition of Video Trail Mix examines Barack Obama's "victory" speech on Tuesday night, which stopped short of claiming the Democratic nomination while still moving the ball forward toward becoming the party's standard bearer.

Also on CQ Politics

 

Craig on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Today (5/21) 6:30 AM EST

 

Kennedy-less Senate Hard to Imagine

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tedkennedy.jpgWhile there are certainly greater tributes to offer, one indication of Sen. Ted Kennedy's tremendous significance -- as news breaks of his malignant brain tumor -- is that the Senate must almost grind to a halt without the Massachusetts Democrat.

Kennedy's unexpected absence means that several measures he was piloting are now on hold, ranging from an extension of collective-bargaining rights for public safety employees to resolving differences over a major higher education overhaul.

 

McCain Hits Obama's Ex-Terrorist Ties

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Twice in recent weeks John McCain or his aides have shown considerable eagerness to raise the issue of Barack Obama's past associations with an "unrepentant domestic terrorist."

Responding over the weekend to Obama's attacks against the presumptive Republican nominee's ties to lobbyists, McCain aides emailed this nugget to reporters: "Just a few years ago when Barack Obama was beginning his career in politics he was launching it at the home of William Ayers, an unrepentant domestic terrorist who his chief strategist said Senator Obama was certainly friendly with."

McCain himself recently brought up the Ayers matter, indicating just how aggressively the Republicans plan to keep pushing this story. Ayers was a leader of the Weathermen Underground, an anti-war group responsible for bombings of the New York City police headquarters in 1970, of the Capitol building in 1971 and of the Pentagon in 1972.

Obama has appeared on panels with Ayers, served on a foundation board with him and held a 1995 campaign event at the home of Ayers and his wife, also a former Weather Underground member. Ayers gave a modest sum of money to one of Obama's campaigns.

At a recent debate Obama minimized his ties Ayers, saying, "The notion that somehow as a consequence of me knowing somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was 8 years old, somehow reflects on me and my values doesn't make much sense."

McCain apparently sees it differently. Last month he said Obama should give "not only repudiation, but an apology for ever having anything to do with an unrepentant terrorist."

 

Obama's Victory Week Begins

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This week appears destined to be "the week that was" in Democratic politics -- the one in which the nomination frontrunner, Barack Obama, convincingly claims victory.

Only an unexpected loss in Oregon on Tuesday could shake Obama's plans to at least symbolically declare himself the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee. Even a blowout win in Kentucky on the same day is unlikely to help Hillary Rodham Clinton if she loses Oregon, no matter how small the margin.

Clinton's response to Obama's victory claim will be telling. Dropping out seems unlikely until primary season officially ends next month. Still, her silence will be construed as acceptance.

Defiance, or perhaps even anything between silence and defiance, will forecast an angry summer for Democrats if it means that Clinton intends to keep her campaign alive waiting for an unexpected catastrophe to befall Obama.

 

And Now, We Resume Regular Programming

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Thanks to all for a mostly anger-free Sunday on the blog. Here's hoping that it encourages more civil debate going forward in our Comments sections.

But now it is back to the great battle ahead. And to the Trail Mix gang of regulars I echo the words of late-night comic Craig Ferguson at the White House Correspondents Dinner last month as he spoke of his pride in recently becoming a U.S. citizen and what he loves most about Americans:

"Please, never, ever, ever agree with each other. Never stop arguing, never stop fighting. You cranky, magnificent bastards."

 

The Summer of Love Challenge

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summeroflove_thumb.jpg Although it is still spring, it is time for a bit of planting that might yield summer flowers. No one could hang around our Comments sections for long without knowing that things got regrettably ugly here between supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton and supporters of Barack Obama. And two of the fiercest advocates for each candidate are longtime commenters Jamie and Brian. These passionate loyalists agreed to take a step across the breach today and offer three things they admire most about the other's candidate.

 

Jamie (Clinton supporter) on Obama:
 
"Let's start with the obvious. For the first time in our history, the United States could very well have a president who is not all white. This image before the world, indicating that we are finally starting to resolve the long and painful racial divide, is a good thing. When you combine that with the beautiful wife and two lovely children, it is a young, vibrant image of a country moving into the future despite recent set backs.
Jamie.jpg 
Two. He is a dynamic and talented speaker. All right, I consider most of it fluffy cotton candy of no substance or depth, but the ability to energize others to take necessary action is not a small talent and will be important as we try to dig our way out from under the mess of the Bush administration. If he can sell an "ask not" philosophy that encourages young people to make necessary sacrifices while changes for the better take place, then he will be a successful president.
 
Three. He does seem willing to learn from others. He doesn't do it gracefully yet -- as in not giving credit to others for the ideas he steals -- but at least he seems to steal from the best, which is progress. Now if he will show the same intelligence in picking a Cabinet that can add to his knowledge base and make him even more effective, everything will turn out alright." (Jamie's blog

 

Brian (Obama supporter) on Clinton:

"Without question the thing I admire most about Mrs. Clinton is her commitment to the welfare of America's (and the world's) children. Throughout her career she has shown a sincere desire to improve the lot of our most vulnerable members of society. From her work for the Children's Defense Fund to her wonderful book, It Takes A Village, Mrs. Clinton has shown true concern, passion, and commitment for those least able to defend themselves.    In her book she drove home the message that every child is everyone's child. 

brian.jpgTenacity, the woman has it in spades. Time and time again the woman has been on the wrong end of unfair attacks -- and despite hostility coming at her from most directions it never appears to get her down. The weight and sting of such attacks would have many if not most taking to their beds and assuming the fetal position. Not Hillary, she keeps her head held high and her eyes on the target, plows right on through, and doesn't stop till she's attained her goal.   

Intelligence, she's smart as hell, and when she decides to tackle any subject she makes it her own. This was more than demonstrated by the fine work she has done in the Senate on the Committee on Armed Services. She won over the most hard boiled of military brass, not because of her stand on the issues but by the depth of her knowledge of the subject at hand." (Brian's blog)

 

Our many other commenters on either side of the Clinton-Obama divide (and John McCain supporters too) are invited to take this Sunday to offer something genuinely positive about the other side (or at least take a break from personal attacks against other commenters). Consider how Benjamin Franklin broke the deadlock of warring delegates in Philadelphia, giving birth to our horribly flawed and forever correctable Constitution: "I can not help expressing a wish that every member of the convention who may still have objections to it, would, with me, on this occasion, doubt a little of his own infallibility, and, to make manifest our unanimity, put his name to this instrument."
(Oh how he would have loved Summer Love)
-- Peace, Craig

 

Obama Accepts Debate Challenge?

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Other than getting Hillary Rodham Clinton out of the race, there is not much left to be done for John McCain and Barack Obama to schedule debates this summer.

Obama on Friday seemed to accept an idea first proposed by McCain for freestyle debates before the party conventions. "If John McCain wants to meet me anywhere, any time to have a debate about our respective policies ... that is a conversation I am happy to have."

Even though Obama made it sound as though he was the one issuing the challenge, McCain has already said he wants pre-convention forums or un-moderated debates. Obama's words in his South Dakota speech on Friday could serve as an apparent acceptance of the presumed Republican nominee's recent proposal for face-to-face sessions.

Originally, Obama had only indicated that he would consider McCain's idea, perhaps out of deference to Clinton. But Obama appears more willing now that he plans to claim victory in the Democratic nomination battle after next week's primaries in Oregon and Kentucky.

 

Coming Tomorrow: Trail Mix "Summer of Love"
Two of our most fierce supporters of Clinton and Obama (Jamie and Brian) each tell us what they like most about the other's candidate.

 

Mississippi Mixed Blessings

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Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Now on Video Trail Mix: The Democratic victory in a Mississippi congressional special election on Tuesday is good news for the party, but not necessarily for Barack Obama.
(Click PLAY VIDEO in screen)

 

Kentucky to Test Edwards Factor

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The impact of John Edwards endorsing Barack Obama on Wednesday can be measured in next week's Kentucky primary. The Obama camp surely hopes to deny Hillary Rodham Clinton the chance for another blowout like what happened on Tuesday in West Virginia.

Edwards has spent more time among Appalachian voters than anyone in this presidential campaign. His poverty tours and tireless championing for working-class voters in the region might encourage those voters to listen to Edwards if he goes on the road in Kentucky.

Proving strength among voters who are not warming to Obama could give Edwards a shot at running mate, or at least indicate how he can be best used in a general election campaign.

Obama does not need to win Kentucky on May 20 to go forward with his plans to use an expected Oregon win on the same day to officially claim victory in the Democratic race. But a stunner in Kentucky like his 41-point loss in West Virginia would be most unwelcome -- and Edwards could at least help narrow the margin.

 

Craig on  "Imus in the Morning"
Thursday (5/15) 6:30 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM / WJZW-FM

 

Huckabee Beats Rice in VP Madness

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In a somewhat surprising upset, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee soundly beat Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice in the 2d Round of VP Madness on CQ Politics. Although perhaps it is not so surprising, given the latest buzz that Huckabee tops John McCain's short list for Republican running mate.

Round Three Pairings in
VP Madness (GOP Edition):

  • Huckabee vs. Sanford
  • Pawlenty vs. Hutchison
  • Palin vs. Jindal
  • Portman vs. Crist

Round Three voting is open until tomorrow, May 15 (Round Four begins Friday, May 16). Democratic version coming once a party nominee is set.

Watch Craig's Video Tour of VP Madness.

 

Craig on "Verdict with Dan Abrams"
Tonight (5/14) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST


 

. . . and on  "Imus in the Morning"
Thursday (5/15) 6:30 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM / WJZW-FM

 

Clinton Wins Center but Loses Base

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Edited by CQ's Andrew Satter
("Fabulous Moolah" provided by Barbara B.)

 

Mountain Mama Wins Big

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Hillary Rodham Clinton’s massive win in West Virginia tonight should give pause to the Democratic superdelegates. But, apparently, it won’t.

This is not the first time that the Democratic Party’s liberal base has placed a sizable bet -- that the country has changed to its benefit. This has been the essential presumption of liberal Democratic strategy since George McGovern’s ridiculous campaign in 1972.

Thirty-six years later -- and many losses in between -- Democrats find in Barack Obama the next big play to move the nation leftward.

West Virginia voters showed tonight that they are not changing. And yet, the Clintons, who happen to be the only Democrats alive who twice won the White House, are getting the boot from their own party.

 

West Virginia -- Anomaly or Bellwether?

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As Hillary Rodham Clinton prepares to savor an expected win today in West Virginia's primary, the question is whether her late-in-the game victories represent the usual last-minute rallying for a failing challenger or an ominous sign of Barack Obama's troubles reaching voters outside his demographic base. While the Mountain State is almost a laboratory for rural and working-class voters who often elude Democrats in general elections, Obama is banking on building an unprecedented party coalition of new voters around the country who could change history and propel the first Democrat since 1916 to win the White House in November without West Virginia.


The Trail Less Traveled was in Morgantown, W. Va., where locals are excited to vote in today's Democratic primary despite the fact that many political experts say the outcome won't matter.
(Jonathan Allen and Andrew Satter, CQ Politics) 

VIDEO INTERVIEW: Clinton Stronger Than Obama in W. Va. General Election

 

Obama Eyes Big Loss in West Virginia

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If Barack Obama’s cursory campaigning for West Virginia’s primary was motivated by some sort of graciousness toward Hillary Rodham Clinton, as some in his camp suggest, why is he campaigning hard for Oregon?

The answer is obvious -- he can win Oregon on May 20, but seems to have no chance for victory tomorrow in West Virginia. Obama clearly has no plans to cede Oregon in order to allow Clinton a graceful exit, nor should he.

But Obama began and ended his Mountain State campaign with today’s rally in Charleston. You would think someone on the verge of clinching his party's presidential nod would want to make more of an effort in a state won by every successful Democratic nominee since 1916.

 

Doubt Serves Clinton in Party Feud

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While dealing from a position of obvious weakness in the Democratic presidential race, Hillary Rodham Clinton has put the party’s rulers in a bit of a box when it comes to the thorny question of what to do about Florida and Michigan.

When the Democratic National Committee’s rules panelists meet on May 31 to hear advocates for the renegade states they would probably rather do nothing in hopes that once Barack Obama gathers the winning majority he will seat the contested delegates and end the matter.

But doing nothing helps Clinton the most -- if she wants to keep the party nomination in official limbo until the convention.

Even giving Clinton everything she claims to want would not help her as much. Seating her majority of delegates from both states would still not put her ahead. Counting Florida and Michigan in popular vote evaluations and adjusting upward the number of delegates required to clinch the party nod also would not close the gap for Clinton.

For Clinton, in this case doubt trumps certainty.

Craig on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Today (5/12) 6:30 AM ET
MSNBC Message Board on this segment

 

Clinton Runs Out of ‘Metrics’

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There goes another “metric” for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Her yearlong lead in declared superdelegates vanished with the latest wave of endorsements for Barack Obama.

Clinton’s best hope now is to somehow take heart in knowing that the nation is not on the metric system, even though adding up the campaign “metrics” is the hottest new buzz word in politics. She is now behind in number of states won, popular vote, elected delegates -- and she lost the pundit vote months and months ago.

Indeed, Clinton must pivot away from any numerical evaluation of the race. No more new math. Instead, why not shift from mathematics to metaphysics? Perhaps a bit of abstract thinking will yield results.

Or she could just hang on for the only "metric" that really counts -- the roll call of the delegates at the Democratic National Convention in August.

Craig on MSNBC “Morning Joe”
Monday (5/12) 6:30 AM EST

 

Obama's Change Means Losing WV?

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West Virginia might not matter to Barack Obama’s tightening grip on his party's nomination, but no Democrat has been elected president without the Mountain State since Woodrow Wilson's narrow reelection in 1916. Obama’s snub of the state for Tuesday’s primary could endanger his party's hopes for West Virginia in November, unless his message of winning the general election by breaking from the past includes breaking the state’s near 100-year record of backing the White House winner.

 

Going Nuclear Means All or Nothing

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If Hillary Rodham Clinton is unable to persuade undeclared superdelegates to her side, will she try to frighten them into submission? Evidence is mounting that Clinton is at least toying with the so-called nuclear option against Barack Obama.

Clinton herself is more forcefully disparaging Obama’s chances to win in November, asserting that his support "among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again." Her friend and unofficial adviser Paul Begala went further, bluntly charging that Obama’s coalition of "eggheads and African-Americans" spells defeat for Democrats.

Is such talk the product of fatigue and disappointment, or is there a strategy at work? If it is a strategy, Clinton will have to go all out to make it work. If not a strategy, she should quickly back off to higher ground.

Going nuclear against Obama cannot be done halfway. It would yield the worst of both worlds for Clinton. Subtle insinuations will still backfire against her, but without scorching the earth under Obama’s feet.

Only a direct and convincing assault of overwhelming force against Obama’s electability offers Clinton any hope for grabbing the nomination at the last minute.

 

Dream Ticket Chatter

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Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Better the No. 2 Spot...or Going Back to the Hill?
(Jonathan Allen, CQ Politics)

 

VP Madness 2d Round Begins

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Here are your pairings for Round Two of
VP Madness (GOP Edition):

  • Rice vs. Huckabee
  • Sanford vs. Romney
  • Pawlenty vs. Powell
  • Ridge vs. Hutchison
  • Palin vs. Brownback
  • Steele vs. Jindal
  • Portman vs. Lieberman
  • Thune vs. Crist

Voting is open until May 12 (Round Three begins May 13).
Dem version coming once a party nominee is set.

Watch Craig’s Video Tour of VP Madness.

 

Craig on "Decision '08"
MSNBC Today (5/8)
9:05 / 10:00 / 10:45 AM EST


Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)

WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club

 

Superdelegates Can End This Now

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If Democratic superdelegates truly want Hillary Rodham Clinton to quit the nomination race, why don’t they just publicly endorse Barack Obama and get it over with? There are more than enough of them to make up the difference needed to give him the winning majority.

Until she officially loses, Clinton has no reason to drop out. And if this fight goes all the way to the convention floor because Obama doesn't have the required number of votes on record to formally claim the nomination, the blame falls on wimpy superdelegates -- not her.

Ever since losing the Ohio Primary two months ago, the Obama campaign has been fanning the vapors that a victory-clinching mass of superdelegates are waiting in the wings to endorse him. Now would seem to be the time to prove it -- before Clinton wins lopsided majorities in upcoming states like West Virginia next week and again revs up her momentum.

If the argument to Clinton is that she must leave the race for the good of the party, then the same case can be made to superdelegates who hold the power to force her out by giving Obama the victory right now.

Craig on "Verdict with Dan Abrams"
Tonight (5/7) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST

... and on MSNBC "Decision '08"
Thursday (5/8) 9:00-11:00 AM EST

 

Backstage Pundit

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Edited by CQ's Andrew Satter

 

Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)

WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club

 

It's North Carolina, Stupid

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While the nail biter in Indiana stole the show on Tuesday night, it was Barack Obama’s massive lead in North Carolina’s popular vote that shapes the next stage of the Democratic nomination race.

Obama’s net gain of more than 200,000 votes in North Carolina almost exactly matches Hillary Rodham Clinton’s net gain last month in Pennsylvania. This matters because it now seems all but impossible for Clinton to eventually claim a lead in overall national popular vote without counting Florida and Michigan.

Clinton had hoped that at the end of the primaries early next month she would be able to counter Obama’s insurmountable lead in elected delegates by arguing to party superdelegates that the will of the voters was on her side because she won the nationwide popular vote.

Obama’s North Carolina blowout means that even if Clinton wins big in upcoming states her popular-vote claim will depend on counting her victories in Florida and Michigan -- a dicey prospect, at best, given the party’s fractious wrangling over whether to seat the contested delegates from those states.

 

VP Madness First Round Ends Today

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While we wait for the voters to vote today in Indiana and North Carolina, don’t forget to cast your vote in today’s final tabulation of the first round of VP Madness, GOP Edition.

Current leaders in first-round pairings: Rice, Huckabee, Sanford, Romney, Pawlenty, Powell, Ridge, Hutchison, Palin, Brownback, Steele, Jindal, Portman, Lieberman, Thune and Crist.

Round two begins tomorrow. Craig’s video tour of VP Madness.

 

Craig Joins C-SPAN Primary Coverage
Tonight (Tuesday, 5/6) 7:00-9:00 PM EST

 

Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)

WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club

 

Hillary Finds Her Groove

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As voters line up today in Indiana and North Carolina will they be in a mood for cutting gas taxes, wiping out the OPEC oil cartel and obliterating Iran? If so, Hillary Rodham Clinton should have a good day.

Whether or not you agree with Clinton, the Democratic presidential contender certainly has set the table for today’s primary voters. In the final days of campaigning, party rival Barack Obama has spent much of his time reacting to Clinton’s flurry of proposals.

Watching the two Democrats these past days has been a study in contrasts. Clinton, while behind in the overall race for delegates, comes across as having the most fun. It might be too late, but she seems to have finally figured out how to run an effective campaign.

Also on Trail Mix: Clinton Still Needs a Game Changer (5/1)

 

Craig Joins C-SPAN Primary Coverage
Tonight (Tuesday, 5/6) 7:00-9:00 PM EST

 

Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)

WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club

 

Tuesday's Tightening Delegate Hunt

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Once again, thanks to the way Democrats assign convention delegates (no "winner take all"), Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are destined to register a near-even split of Tuesdays take and remain short of the numbers needed to clinch the nomination.

CQ Politics examined the delegate hunt for Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina . . .

INDIANA: “This analysis gives Clinton a 24 to 23 edge over Obama in the race for the 47 district-level delegates — with the disclaimer that this is a projection and not a hard-and-fast prediction, because of the convoluted way in which the delegates will be distributed.” (Greg Giroux, CQ Politics)

NORTH CAROLINA: “Obama is likely to receive just a slight majority of the state’s 77 district-level delegates because of how the delegates are distributed. CQ Politics projects that Obama is likely to receive 40 of the district-level delegates to Clinton’s 37.” (Marie Horrigan, CQ Politics)

 

Obama's Clinton Focus Helps Her

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Oddly, Barack Obama remained in attack mode against Hillary Rodham Clinton during the closing weekend before Tuesday’s Democratic presidential primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

On gas taxes, Iran policy, the Iraq war, the power of lobbyists and other issues, Obama grabbed headlines by taking direct aim at Clinton by name, whether on the stump or in television interviews. Clinton, while still discussing their differences, instead made news by vowing to “work my heart out” for Obama if he becomes the party nominee.

Obama’s stepped-up attacks are odd on a couple of fronts. First, this is what he did in the closing days before the Pennsylvania Primary -- and it didn’t work. Clinton beat him by 9.2 percentage points, thanks in part to last-minute deciders who did not warm to Obama’s arguments in the final stretch.

Also, it seems strange for Obama to keep talking so much about his Democratic rival while at the same time trying to convince party superdelegates that his nomination is inevitable and Clinton is irrelevant.

If the race is over, as the Obama camp keeps saying, why not just ignore Clinton? Obama did try that approach for a day or two after the Pennsylvania Primary, exclusively focusing on Republican contender John McCain. But for some reason he simply could not stick to that plan, even though it showed promise for sidelining Clinton.

Obama took a firm step toward marginalizing Clinton by refusing to attend a planned North Carolina debate before Tuesday's voting, but the more he talks about Clinton on the campaign trail the more reasonable he makes it seem for her to stay in the race.

 

Primary Battlegrounds: Sunday Clips

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Indiana Coverage

North Carolina Coverage

 

Dems Face Another Decisive Weekend

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Final weekends before primaries in this Democratic presidential race seem to matter even more than they usually do in any campaign. So many voters remain undecided between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama until that last weekend. The next 48 hours could be telling for what happens on Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina.

Indiana Coverage

North Carolina Coverage