Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

In case anyone wants to listen....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lonnee-hamilton/placing-reverend-wrights_b_92738.html

I don't know if it will change any minds - but it is interesting given our religious conversation of earlier.

And Rev. Wright does have some nice things to say about Clinton (and I am being serious).

Tonight Hillary challenged Mr. Obama to two debates in Oregon, one specifically dealing with rural Oregon.

Obama's campaign has declined.

Barrroock, brrrrrock, brrrrrock...

Come on Barack...debate..show some guts...

Hmm
How many has he declined so far?

Anyway,
getting to do some wrok here..... Will be back later

Hillary......our Nominee!!!!!

Oregon Democrat,

Why do you think Obama's declining to debate? He isn't good at candid
responses. Clinton out-debates him every time. Obama does an okay job with scripted speeches, but I bet Darth Axelrod hires speech writers to do considerable editing.

Craig and fellow bloggers,

In response to Craig's recent post, as far as North Carolina Republicans running the ad showing Obama's Rev. Wright, I'm not so sure that the ad will have a backlash affect. Maybe North Carolina independents or crossover voters
might be nudged to vote for Clinton after being reminded of Obama's
ties to the ranting preacher. I hate to admit it, but as a Clinton supporter and
after all the mean-spirited attacks on Hillary, I kind of like it when Fox
shows Wright screeching. Does that make me a bad person?

prof:

"He isn't good at candid responses. Clinton out-debates him every time. Obama does an okay job with scripted speeches, but I bet Darth Axelrod hires speech writers to do considerable editing."

Hillary is the most scripted politician going. Don't think all those fabulous policy ideas and tricky arguments are all just popping into Hillary's head spontaneously.

Every speech you hear - and every performance on a talk show (which tend to lack variety as she appears in 6 on one day to roll out the new talking points) - have been worked on tirelessly by the Clinton Machine.

(And I suspect some in the media hate the Clintons because they often use them like puppets - despite the regular complaining we hear from the Clinton camp).

Obama is not an act. The message he is delivering on the campaign trail is the same one he has been talking about since 2002 (Iraq), 2004 (Red States vs. Blue States) and improving on the way politics is conducted in Washington (The Audacity of Hope - 2006).

This is no "fairy tale". Obama is intelligent, hard-working and compassionate.

And he has shown himself to be a skilled politician as well.

(Wouldn't you agree? Look what he has been able to do against the Clinton Machine and their millions of loyal supporters....that is some pretty formidable competition ; )

I am off to Costa Rica.

Carry on (and I hope no one storms out while I am gone - but of course I can't argue against taking a break.)

Pura vida peeps!

(that is what they say down in Costa . . . "pure life")

Couldn't let this one slide:

McCain opposes equal pay bill in Senate

Republican Sen. John McCain, campaigning through poverty-stricken cities and towns, said Wednesday he opposes a Senate bill that seeks equal pay for women because it would lead to more lawsuits.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080423/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_fair_pay

People in Oregon are referring to Mr.Obama as Chicken Little..

Oregon TV News Coverage..

Why won't Obama debate in Oregon???

hahhahahaahha. LOL

This will backfire if he doesn´t debate.

He also went for a 10 day press hiatus....It got very little coverage. Only on FOX.....

If Obama is so "unscripted" and glib why does he "ah, ah" and stumble
his way through so many of the debates? Senator Clinton clearly articulates her ideas every time no matter what the question. I'm just asking.

Hillary Clinton just raised ten million dollars online in less than 24 hours. Yet, Obama and his surrogates would like us to believe Americans want her out of
the race. HA!

Obama is not good at talks he can't control. It is best for him that he does not debate. Even with all the help he gets from the media, it is not his best forum.

This morning I was watching last nights Daily Show. I have not been as avid a watcher as I usually am. I am slowly but surely cutting out most of my TV. It is a good thing.

Jon was making fun of Hillary for staying in this race. I wanted to jump into the TV and strangle him. Why do these morons on TV think that a intelligent, capable woman, who has wanted something all her life should just quit because many people, who don't know what they are doing, vote for someone they don't know much about. Are these people pod people? Have I gone nuts and this all makes sense??

Also, what is this blue typekey someone mentioned.

begala on Imus

PS. Now that I have mentioned that I could be nuts and have a good potential defense I will throw out a theory.

I think the last two Republican presidents were men that were chosen to be figure heads while other powerful people pulled their strings.

Maybe the Dems are going to try this also. What if Obama has been chosen to be a figure head with other powerful Dems pulling his strings? That is the only thing that explains what is happening.

Don't hold this against me. I'm nuts.

pod people and string pullers......sounds about right to me......ie business as usual............so much for "change"

you left out reagan......you know, the actor with alzheimers.......talk about figurehead......

Sturge,

Re: Begala

I'm listening to a streaming broadcast of WABC on my computer. His imitation of Carville was fantastic.

Sturg, I did mean Reagan.

oh....sorry.....that makes it the last 3 unless you figure Bush 1 has a string in his hand, of course.......

begala's great......

Sorry Sturg, you are right. I forgot about daddy George. I guess I am still asleep and having a nightmare.

I've gotta ask this question to Warren:

Empire or Jedi?

By the way , I see Obama as either Lando or Han Solo.

He's not Luke Skywalker and Hillary isn't Darth Vader. Because , as we all know , Darth Vader was Luke's father.

Lando was smooth , but you didn't know whether you could trust him or not. You could trust him , but you weren't sure.

Han Solo was an outsider , Just like Obama is a Washington outsider. Luke wasn't. Luke was fulfilling his destiny to be a jedi knight.

If Obama is Han Solo , MSNBC is Princess Leia

MSNBC: "I love you."
Obama: "I know"

BTW , Sturgeone , you are a voice of reason here. :)

Good Morning Craig, Everyone ☺
Not much to say after being castigated and taken out of context yesterday.

--Heather

Warren,
Thanks for the link on Rev Wright... So Rev Wrights ability to move on to peace and loving - Hope and Healing I could not find in his messages. Does Dean help right Wrights messages?

This only reinforces the concern even with the full text.

Mr Obama please answer.... Help us understand

maybe rev. wright can hire some chicago poor
as servants for his new 10mllion dollar mansion or
get them some caddy jobs at the golf course next door

the remarks by Obama..Bitter and cling to their guns and religion are not going away..hence the Pennsylvania vote..and i believe Indiana will go for Clinton..these are the first votes after those remarks..Obama is done..Hillary will be the democratic nominee

Chicago isn't safe these days. Especially if you are a kid!

Corey.....
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!

guess that means Michelle is Chewbacca.....

Rove's oped in this mornings Journal is a must read. Its distilled essence is that there is only one remaining Democratic candidate with 'nads:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120899654405739949.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

I had this guy I know come up to me last year at the grocery store , Renee. He said , "I can sound like Chewbacca! Wanna hear me?" He then proceeded to make this gurgling sound and ask , "How was that? Was it pretty good?" This guy also once told me that when he was 13 years-old they clocked his fastball at 90 mph and when he was 16 they clocked his fastball at 105 mph. My response was "I call bullsh*t!" He has a 105 mph fastball and he's a stocker at a grocery store?

corey........that doesnt bode well for "here".........

Corey said:
This guy also once told me that when he was 13 years-old they clocked his fastball at 90 mph and when he was 16 they clocked his fastball at 105 mph. My response was "I call bullsh*t!" He has a 105 mph fastball and he's a stocker at a grocery store?

but man oh man you oughta see him stock those shelves.........

Dick Gregory to be on Imus on Monday!

Rove, of course, knows what he's doing.....it's a reverse support.......If Rove is seeming to be for Hillary, then the idea is to drive Democrats away from her......what's so enigmatic about that?

Yeah , he was a quick draw with his pricing gun! Off to the dentist. Later all!

dick gregory......that's gotta be great.....

I was going to join a wagon train and go out west......but then I found out they wanted ME to pull the wagon......

--Dick Gregory sometime in the sixties

corey - Good one about MSNBC...and right on the money with Lando, too.

The Rev Wright story won't go away, either. Just because the ad was aimed elsewhere, doesn't mean it won't have some sort of an effect. It also doesn't mean that the GOP won't do even worse down the road. Obama should step down.

Here's how I'm making myself feel better about voting Rep if Obama is the nom:

McCain theory: He's not looking at a second term anyway, so he's spouting the party line until he gets into office and then disassembles W's horrid policies & finds a way to bring most of our troops home without announcing it to the enemy.

(And, no, Hil'ry as veep will not get me to vote for that arrogant, hollow, W-ish Obama.)

the Rev Wright ad in NC is just to see how it plays so they can punch it up and flesh it out for November.......without costing them on the national stage......it's only NC, and only for the Gov race......
Ha ha ha ha ha ha

silly republicans.........

MoJo was all anti-Obama this AM.

I guess he finally got the GOP memo.

The NC ad is part of the same pattern that we saw with Richard Mellon Scaife endorsing Hillary.

The vast right wing conspiracy is now backing Hillary.

Flatus,

I read the Rove thing this morning. The SD's need to read that and think about it. It lays out Obama's problem in brutal detail.

Mojo and Matthews say that that Hillary's supporters are "Reagan Democrats."

They are older, socially conservative (code word for racist) democrats who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

mojo and matthews possess between them all the relevance of a stale jelly donut........

I see that the Hillary people are now listening to Rove to help them clarify their thinking.

Why don't you all just JOIN the GOP and get it over with?
Hillary is one step away from it. She's marching steadily to the right, day after day.

On Hardball Matthews showed an attack ad about Obama's vote against a bill to toughen the sentences of gangland criminals and it was one the most POWERFUL ads I have seen. The panel of pundits including Joan Walsh and Roger Simon were all shocked and one said in unison with my wife and I "WOW," The ad is pure dynamite and yet is "not racist" said Simon but an ad that is incredibly chilling. If this portends the type of ad Obama will face his personal negatives will rise greatly and make him the weakest of contenders, a Michael Dukakis with more baggage.

toast

What is happening now in the Democratic party is that a minority of "Republi-crats," backed by the GOP and the MSM, are trying to destroy the primary campaign leader.

We'll just have to see if the voters in the remaining primaries will buy into this, and whether the superdelegates wise up.

If they don't, the Democratic party will become a subsidiary of the GOP.

Hillary marches to the beat of a different democratic drummer.......you know........the one who gets to play when their candidate actually WINS an election........

McCarthy, Mondale, McGovern, Dukakis, Kerry, Gore.....yes, we democrats dont wish to actually win elections.....what principle does that show?

Toast, did they suggest that the ad was being broadcast somewhere? Who sponsored it?

Nash, every time you climb on your soapbox and start waving your polarized banner, I check my bank balance to see if I can afford another contribution to Mrs Clinton's campaign.

Thanks for keeping me focused!

mornin', all -

nash, you must have missed the anti-Hillary rap mojo gave. Bottom line was give it up, the race is over, bad math, etc. You would have approved.

And Mojo and Matthews are, as usual, and as typical for republicans, oversimplifying everything about Hillary's supporters and getting it wrong. Just as a f'rinstance, how many Reagan Democrats do you think are her supporters here? Maybe one?

The older, socially conservative voters (you know, the racist ones) are likely going to go for McCain - you know, those southern republican voters who came and voted in the dem primaries in the deep south against Hillary - and believe me, the older socially conservative voters in the south are not fans of Bill or Hillary - they still have their Bush/Cheney '00 and '04 bumper stickers on their cars down there - and who Barack thinks he's converted.

Isn't it obvious? The GOP WANTS to run against Hillary.

She and Bill are two of the most personally corrupt, dishonest, and morally bankrupt politicians in the country.

The GOP has collected a vast supply of dirt to use against them in the general election. (i.e. the blue dress.)

Obama, on the other hand, will be harder for them to attack. He doesn't have as much baggage.

Are we in some sort of time warp here? Craig's byline reads April 25 (tomorrow) 6:00 am (first post by Warren was 1:09 am.) yet noone seems to have noticed.

...as I write this (and submit for the 3rd time) strange space music is playing in the background.

nash......that's pure gibberish.

Craig may have "mis-wrote".

The Democratic party is in the process of tying itself in knots but now the GOP and the MSM are jumping in the mix and making things worse.

In November, you Hillary supporters may wake up and find that Hillary lost and McCain is the President-elect and you'll be saying, "What happened?"

And then you'll say, "It must have been Obama's fault."

Obama, on the other hand, will be harder for them to attack. He doesn't have as much baggage

LOL
now that was funny.

Jack

Flatus, I believe it is going to air this week in either NC or a western state? I cannot remember who the sponsor is but it is by the team used to create the Willie Horten ad.

toast

Good morning all.

$10 million in 24 hours

60,000 NEW DONORS

Quote of the week: "What we need to do is stop this whining and stop this namby-pambyism."

Personal thought: Heather please hang in there and don't let the Obamaniacs get to you - you have facts on your side.

Have a great day - work/school too busy to hang out here very much. :-(

What is happening now in the Democratic party is that a minority of "Republi-crats," backed by the GOP and the MSM, are trying to destroy the primary campaign leader.

Posted by: nash

Obama's wounds are self inflicted.

toast

"And then you'll say, "It must have been Obama's fault.""

LOL

That is a classic example of what Psychologists call projecting.

Jack

"Nash, every time you climb on your soapbox and start waving your polarized banner, I check my bank balance to see if I can afford another contribution to Mrs Clinton's campaign."

Flatus - me too - Nash may now qualify as a Hillraiser with all the money he's raised for Hillary from this blog.

How is the popular vote being calculated. The normal primary like PA all the votes are counted but how are the others counted.

"Flatus, I believe it is going to air this week in either NC or a western state?"

It starts airing today in North Carolina and the ad "supposedly" is directed at some down ballot races..."supposedly".

Thanks, Wendy.

begala being re-played on Imus at nine-thirty.......the carville impression alone is worth the price of admission.

Craig, where is a post about Hillary Clinton's "Bizarro World" that she must live in to keep reinterpreting the math, the rules, or whatever it is she's decided to change into her favor today?

It is unbelievable to me that people would fall for her crap. The Obama people need to run an ad showing in her own words how many times she changed positions on the primary.

Okay, stepping down now.

Hillary's camp spin yesterday was they were leading in the popular vote, the only way I see that is you count FL & MI and you can still use the uncommited for votes for Obama and take out the caucuses and I have her leading by 100,000 or so votes. With everything I have Obama winning by 360,000 or so votes. I still don't know how the caucuses are counted but I took CNN vote counts.

It's time for Obama to go negative. The Clintons are easy targets. If you gave me a day, I could write a dozen devastating ads, and I'm an amateur.

#1 would be an ad saying that Clinton voted for the Iraq war, even though she knew it was wrong, because she was AFRAID OF LOOKING WEAK. In the background I'd show shots of flag draped-coffins returning from Iraq. I'd have wounded vets saying "Hillary betrayed us."

Let's see if Hillary is comfortable in THAT kitchen.

Flatus, et al

The ad that is being called a "willie Horton" ad against
Obama may be viewed at Taylor Marsh's website.

The ad was created by the same guy who created the
willie horton ad.

It is about gang violence in Chicago & legislation about
the death penalty tha Obama voted against.

Also. abcnews has Obama's explanation as to why
he voted against it--the bill was vetoed by then Governor Ryan. I

Sorry, tried to link but somehow, I could not get it here.

"It's time for Obama to go negative"

Another funny one.

Obama has been negative since January.

Jack

Obama attack ad #2: "Billy-goat"

Voiceover: "Do we want to have a sexual predator roaming the halls of the White House, again?" Shots of cigars, blue dresses, thong underwear, and pizza boxes. "Do we want a President who can't stop this from happening, again?"

"Vote for Obama. He can keep it in his pants. And he HAS one."

Obama ad on Iraq

Yes I spoke out against the war but then I voted for all the funding and did nothing once I got elected.

It's easy to be against the war when William Ayers is your audience. Harder when you get inside the beltway

My other question for Hillary in ad would be why is spending so much money on staff? 200,000 dollars a month to Wolfson? Seems to me, she more concerned with making her staff rich with the money she raises rather than using it to run a winning campaign.

Flatus, et al

There are 2 ads that are out there--the Rev Wright
clips (by the NC Rep. party) being used to attack
dem. candidates in NC & the gang violence ad--both
can be viewed at Taylor Marsh's site.

Here is the abcnews Obama rebuttal to the gang
violence ad.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/how-republicans.html

ct

Go to http://www.typekey.com

Register and get your name as you want it to appear here and your password. Come back here and on the left side you will see a box to check after you enter your name and password.

It will ask if you want to share your email. Click yes. Then click "remember me"

Once your message posts, you should show a little blue key (see above for the people with keys).

If you checked "remember me", from that point on you won't need to do anything but type in a comment and hit submit.

Obama in the White

Voice over of Rev Wright

I hate whitey and white people not welcome in the Blackhouse now.

Rap music and pictures and stories of Chicago gang violence. Kwanza not Christmas

Thank you Nash..even though I made a Hillary donation yesterday, I'm now going to make another one.

Thanks Coreen, I'll try to search it out. That Willie Horton one was devastating despite being a shameful misrepresentation.

"MoJo was all anti-Obama this AM.
I guess he finally got the GOP memo."

Maybe he just got sick and tired of the one sided, totally biased, and irrational media slam against Sen. Clinton.

w-jack: You think Obama has been negative?

I know negative.
Negative is a friend of mine.
That. sir, is not negative.

But if Obama would just hire me, I'd make the Willie Horton ad look like a Hallmark card. After I got through with them, the Clintons would have to move to France.

Floyd Brown is back.

"Brown, the former political director of "Americans for Bush" (meaning George H.W. Bush), was a key player in the infamous 1988 "Willie Horton" ad, and his new group the National Campaign Fund -- which launched a new website "Expose Obama" -- aims to take a similarly low-road approach to the presidential race and his new target, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.

The subject of the ad is Obama's record on gang violence, which in recent days has become a real problem in Obama's home town of Chicago."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/how-republicans.html

Vote for Obama. He can keep it in his pants. And he HAS one."

Really not according to Michelle --she wears the device and the pants in their family...it's a pump

Flatus

This should be the Obama gang violence ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cabl0KSFUqoad through youtube

"Obama has been negative since January."

Jack...even before that he was calling her a liar and making his arrogant tea party cracks.

I laughed when I read that too.

OD: I'm sure Mark Penn will enjoy spending your donation.

Nasch

What a silly man you are. I'll bet you get to keep it in your pants...

"Thank you Nash..even though I made a Hillary donation yesterday, I'm now going to make another one."

Me too...Flatus?

Ariana: I don't like cigars, if that's what you mean.

Mojo and Matthews say that that Hillary's supporters are "Reagan Democrats."

They are older, socially conservative (code word for racist) democrats who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Posted by: nash | April 24, 2008 8:27 AM

====================================================

Nash:

This may come as a shock to your system but socially conservative people of good conscience are not racist we do not have to wallow in the depths of social depravity to prove we are not racists.

It is moronic remarks like that... that make it impossible to take you seriously and allow you any credibility at all.

--Heather

"They are older, socially conservative (code word for racist) democrats who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004." - Nash

First of all, socially conservative is two words. Second, socially conservative is generally taken to mean anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage.

It seems to be a consistent pattern with many Obama supporters that see racism lurking around every corner. Of course racism can be inferred into just about anything, if that's what one wants to see. Perhaps the best example of this is the view of former Pres. Clinton as a racist. That is patently false by any reasonable standard, yet he is now perceived by some to be the 21st century's Jim Crow. Not only is it utterly ridiculous but it demeans the good name of all those that fought real racism.

The unintended by-product of this hysteria is that people begin to just tune it out and when there is a real incidence of bad behavior, it is lumped with the many false alarms and simply ignored.

David Axelrod, has seen at least $12 million paid to his Chicago-based firm, where David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, was a partner until he left to go work for the campaign. (Plouffe makes $12,000 a month in salary.) Obama has paid his chief pollster, Joel Benenson, $635,000 so far.

Clinton's campaign pays for health insurance not Obama.

When you are talking older , how old are you talking about? 50? 60? 70? 80? There are a lot of socially conservative people here in Holland. I've never heard them called racists. Most are just called Dutch people.

Heather: I guess the kitchen is too hot for you today. It's OK when Hillary does it, but not when someone else does it to her. Then it's "depraved."

I wish you Hillary people would make up your minds about negative campaigning. For days you've been hammering Obama because "he can't take it." And you've been saying that Hillary is "immune." She's not.

This may not be same guy , but there is a statue of Willie Horton at Comerica Park in Detroit. I took a picture of it when I went to a Tigers game last year.

CTFO, Because people making $200,000 a MONTH need thier health care payed for by HRC

he Washington Post reports this morning via an anonymous Democratic strategist that the Obama camp may seek to remind voters of the less impressive days of the Clinton administration:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/23/obama-camp-may-turn-to-ne_n_98157.html

The first person to mention the Massachusetts furlough program in the 1988 presidential campaign was Al Gore. During a debate at the Felt Forum sponsored by the New York Daily News, Gore took issue with the furlough program and brought up the Horton incident.

Republicans would pick up the Horton issue after Dukakis clinched the nomination. In June 1988, Republican candidate George H.W. Bush seized on the Horton case, bringing it up repeatedly in campaign speeches. Bush's campaign manager, Lee Atwater, predicted that "by the time this election is over, Willie Horton will be a household name."[3] Media consultant Roger Ailes remarked "the only question is whether we depict Willie Horton with a knife in his hand or without it."[4]

[edit] The index card
In April 1988, Lee Atwater asked aide Jim Pinkerton for negative research to defeat Dukakis. Pinkerton returned with reams of material that Atwater told him to reduce to a 3x5 index card, telling him, "I'm giving you one thing. You can use both sides of the 3x5 card." Pinkerton discovered the furlough issue by watching the Felt Forum debate. On May 25, 1988, Republican consultants met in Paramus, New Jersey holding a focus group of Democrats who had voted for Ronald Reagan in 1984. After giving the focus group the material Pinkerton provided on the index card, most of the voters switched from favoring Dukakis to favoring Bush. These focus groups convinced Atwater and the other Republican consultants that they should 'go negative' against Dukakis. Further information regarding the furlough came from aide Andy Card, a Massachusetts native whom President George W. Bush later named as his chief of staff. [5]

[edit] Jumping the gun
Although commercials about Willie Horton were not run until the fall campaign, Bush first mentioned him at the Texas Republican convention on June 9, 1988. The following week at the Illinois Republican convention in Springfield, Bush began to press the argument against Dukakis by declaring that Dukakis had let Horton loose to 'terrorize innocent people' and continued support of the furlough program until the Massachusetts legislature changed the law. Bush again mentioned Horton at the National Sherrifs Association in Louisville, Kentucky and declared himself in favor of 'life without parole' for convicted murderers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Horton

Heather

For me false charges of racism are as morally reprehensible as racism its self.
That is why I have no respect for Nash.
I suspect he thinks he is funny, but then so does the bigot that tells racist jokes.

Jack

"He has a 105 mph fastball and he's a stocker at a grocery store?"

No control. He beheaded the first base umpire?

Stock in trade of the Obama campaign

"anonymous sources"

Probably Arianna and DAvid Geffen sipping champagne on his yacht.

Oh yes, Hillary Clinton killed her lesbian lover Vince Foster in front of the travel office staff that's why she had them fired.

Formerly the Obama campaign argued the rightwing would use this kind of crap but Scaife's change of heart indicates he even admitted prior to the campaign
he was wrong.

But the Obama campaign still promotes the righwing lies. Must still be a lot of snow in Maine.

In important happenings...Red Wings host the Avalance tonight.

Craig

There is also an ad in Louisiana trying to pair Rep. Don Cazayoux with Obama and Pelosi.

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/04/la-6-obama-debuts-in-gop-ad.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju6HszQqFT8

Jack

paul begala was great on Imus. Just heard the replay, his impression of Carville was right on.

VaDaryl
"How is the popular vote being calculated."

It is all rather arcane, but in the caucus states, some report actual popular vote and others don't. For the ones that do, it's straight forward. For the ones that don't it is guess work since you have to work backwards from the delegate vote and the location where that delegate vote happened since different locations are given different weights. The best you can do is come close to the count.

As close as I can tell if you leave out Michigan but count Florida, she is still behind by a little. If you give her Michigan, she is ahead. If you give her Michigan but give him all the "uncommitted", then she is behind by a little again.

A lot will hinge on the margin in North Carolina. If she can keep it close or even win. (call me crazy but I think it's possible), then I think a legitimate claim to the popular vote could be made.

From today's NYT: Race a factor in Dem nomination

But just when it seemed that the Democratic Party was close to anointing Mr. Obama as its nominee, he lost yet again in a big general election state, dragged down by his weakness among blue-collar voters, older voters and white voters. The composition of Mrs. Clinton’s support — or, looked at another way, the makeup of voters who have proved reluctant to embrace Mr. Obama — has Democrats wondering, if not worrying, about what role race may be playing.

You know , this election would be much easier on us if we were choosing between two white males instead of Hillary and Obama. No racism or sexism charges to deal with.

I am confused why Hillary and her camp is spiining that she has the most votes. She needs to be correct with everything now and not feed the media with anything more to hammer her on. It's close and if things fall right she can get the popular vote lead. She needs FL & MI and so do the Dems in November.

The Clintons played the race card and their followers (as we have seen on Crawfordslist) let them get away with it.

The end result will be that McCain will win.

The same article points to other issues besides race]
such as Obama's elitism image

"While arguably critical to determining the viability of Mr. Obama’s candidacy, the role of race is difficult to disentangle from the other strands of the political debate surrounding him, encompassing topics like values, elitism, ideology and experience. "
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/us/politics/24obama.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1209046496-eGiyi+qQGYI7fyHgj/7naA

nash - JennBe is a good example of how the republicans want to run against Hillary. Wake up, have a cuppa.

Correction to my earlier post:

70,000 NEW DONORS

Corey,

Detroit statue:

It must be the same guy. There couldn't possibly be two Willie Hortons in America.

On your pitcher/grocery clerk, 105 mph sounds like an exaggeration, but Jamie's right, if he can't get it over the plate, he'd better at least make sure he stacks the cans of peas correctly.

"has Democrats wondering, if not worrying, about what role race may be playing."

Nash, My guess is that racial animosity is a factor in about 10% of the vote on Sen. Clinton's side of the scale. That is the negative.

On the positive side, A large number of women take into consideration that Hillary is a woman, they are proud of her and they vote for her. A large number of the AA population take into consideration that Sen. Obama is of their heritage. They are proud of him and they vote for him.

To automatically say that all the white people voting for Sen. Clinton are racists or that all the black people voting for Sen Obama are misogynists is just plain stupid. Now where the media is concerned, both attitudes are probably more true since, particularly on cable, they tend to reflect the extremes of attitudes in society.

Dear whskyjack:

Thank you for the kind words and I totally agree with you!

--Heather

Heather:

Don't let 'em drag you down. You do a great job with your posts. There are more people here who appreciate your contributions than not. To castigators and takers-out-of-context, I would say, "Your opinion of me is none of my business."

"The composition of Mrs. Clinton’s support — or, looked at another way, the makeup of voters who have proved reluctant to embrace Mr. Obama — has Democrats wondering, if not worrying, about what role race may be playing."

Perhaps different questions should be posed. According to exit polling data in PA, Sen. Obama got 90% of the votes from blacks and over 40% of the votes from whites. On their face, those statistics seem to be at odds.

Why are so few black voters willing to embrace Sen. Clinton? Did race play a factor in their decision?

Pogo

"JennBe is a good example of how the republicans want to run against Hillary."

JennBe is a good example of someone who doesn't have a clue about how the health care system actually works.

Jamie: If perhaps 10% of whites would never vote for a black person, wouldn't you agree that there may 10% of men who would never vote for a woman? Is there the potential that it all evens out?

And, along these lines, isn't it possible that there are at least 10% of women who will never vote for a white man for President ever again? (ha)

Oprah.com Community: OBAMA! ...Dec 12, 2007 ... And, yes, I did catch her racist remark that it's "our turn"

Nash tell Oprah to stop it!

Obama is just having trouble closing the deal. He's more Todd Jones (Detroit Tigers reliever) than he is Mariano Rivera.

And Jamie: Yes, can you just imagine the headlines if Hillary didn't provide health care coverage for her employees? Yowsa!

"If you don't like the way I finish games , just go to your kitchen , fix yourself a sandwich and come back in 15 minutes and it'll be all over." - Todd Jones

Michelle Obama: "I'm A Big Fan Of Accessories. I'm Married To One"
Huffington Post | April 9, 2008 04:54 PM

"Hillary didn't provide health care coverage for her employees? Yowsa!"

Totally ignoring the fact that the coverage never lapsed and the bill was paid before the news item ever appeared.

Doesn't take any imagination. It happened. One of the less delightful aspects of a free press is that they are allowed to be as stupid and biased as they like.

nash, that is very helpful advice to Hillary's camp. I'm certain that her staff will take the level of your support for her into account when the consider it.

You are certainly on a race kick this morning. Let's be correct - Bill compared Obbama's SC results to Jesse Jackson's, said they both ran great campaigns there. Obama followers claimed Bill was playing the race card. Jackson, one of ehth 2 subjects of Bill's remarks, who supports Obama and who is no stranger to racial comments against him, said he didn't believe Clinton meant it as a racial remark and he didn't perceive it as such.

hey folks, a word of caution about Obama camp buzzing the media with talk of a coming mass of SuperDs -- they also said that six weeks ago on the day they lost Ohio: http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/04/tom-brokaw-says-obama-has-50-more-superdelegates-in-his-back-pocket/

Posted by: Craig Crawford | April 22, 2008 5:33 PM

Yes, where are all those Super Ds? Anyone?

jamie, re: jennbe, you could be right - I didn't intend to comment on that. I am just countering nash's comment that the repubs want to run against Hillary. Jennbe is one of what, 2 active repub posters here recently (counting her and Ping), and she's rabidly anti clinton. I didn't mean to comment on her knowledge of healthcare or lack thereof. So at least half of the repubs here apparently would rather run against Obama. But then, there are no shades of gray in nash's comments this morning - kind of sounds like a republican today.

Pogo

"Bill compared Obbama's SC results to Jesse Jackson's, said they both ran great campaigns there"

But Nash thinks there is nothing wrong (which there isn't) when all the news media report the heavy AA turnout in Philadelphia and other major cities. In fact this morning they are all reporting that NC will have about a 10% increase in the usual already heavy AA vote which will make it harder for Sen. Clinton to come close or win. I guess all those news folks are racists as well.

Jamie: Jeez...I missed the health coverage story...

jamie - under the new rules everyone except Obama supporters is (are?) racist.

Yes, where are all those Super Ds? Anyone?
Posted by: Ally

I think Jimmy Carter could surprise everyone and be a Jane Fonda moment?

toast

Dear Ivy Green:

It was very sweet of you to say that and I deeply appreciate it.
It may be a simple act of kindness but it means more to me than you may realize thank you so much Ivy Green ☺ <3

Sincerely,
Heather

The only reason Jimmy Carter hasn't officially endorsed Obama is because it would hurt, not help him. Kind of like Bob Casey. He should have said thanks but no thanks that guy too.

Random thought from the Pong

We need to elect based on ability to be President, Not on ability to run for President

McCain / Romney 08

second Choice
Hillary and anyone but BHO

Second Random Thought -- OK lots of people are talking about it.

BHO will be easier to defeat,

Go BHO

Corey.....
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!

guess that means Michelle is Chewbacca.....

Posted by: RebelliousRenee | April 24, 2008 7:39 AM

Well now that you mention it, she even looks a bit like ... oh never mind!

Careful ET...dangerous territory.

Terrorist Fundraisers for Obama

"Two years ago, Hatem El-Hady was the chairman of the Toledo, Ohio-based Islamic charity, Kindhearts, which was closed bt the US government in February 2006 for terrorist fundraising and all its assets frozen. Today, El-Hady has redirected his fundraising efforts for his newest cause - Barack Obama for President.

El-Hady has his own dedicated page on Barack Obama's official website, chronicling his fundraising on behalf of the Democratic Party presidential candidate (his Obama profile established on February 19, 2008 - two years to the day after Kindhearts was raided by the feds). Not only that, but he has none other than Barack Obama's wife, Michelle Obama, listed as one of his friends ..."

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=6203178D-C782-42E2-8D56-765A3D7EDCD7

Does this make me a Racist?

I do equally disagree with anyone with Socialist practice. I will admit that, and also those that do not promote and demand individuals to be responsible and contribute to our society according to ability.

So if that makes me a racist?

Here's the NYT article nash was drawing from. His comments about Clinton's supporters are a paraphrase and overreaching recitation of Axelrod's assesment of Clinton's supporters that leave no question about the racist intent of the comments. Axelrod was less direct and more coded in his words. In truth, I don't think Axelrod was making the same suggestion as nash - I imagine Axelrod understands and would admit that much of Obama's support is racially based.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/us/politics/24obama.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

I know many times a day they play the Liberty Mutual Commercials, which I love instead of race baiting and leveling charges of racism and bigotry at each other please click this link and let each of us do something kind for one another

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76h8jbjZqOI

Thank You

--Heather

This doesn't advance the debate at all, but a friend forwarded it to me, so I'm doing the same.

Disclaimer: No real doctors were used and no actual surgeries took place for this story.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
A Japanese doctor said, "Medicine in my country is so advanced that we can take a kidney out of one man, put it in another, and have him looking for work in six weeks."

A German doctor said, "That's nothing, we can take a lung out of one person, put it in another, and have him looking for work in four weeks."

A British doctor said, "In my country, medicine is so advanced that we can take half of a heart out of one person, put it in another, and have them both looking for work in two weeks."

A Texas doctor, not to be outdone said, "You guys are way behind. We took a man with no brains out of Texas, put him in the White House, and now half the country is looking for work."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Amending disclaimer: Well okay, maybe the last one did happen.

Rove's oped in this mornings Journal is a must read. Its distilled essence is that there is only one remaining Democratic candidate with 'nads:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120899654405739949.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Posted by: Flatus | April 24, 2008 7:43 AM

You know, I think I'd take ANYTHING Rove has to say with not even a grain of salt. He is a shrewd, evil man who wants nothing more than to see the Dems self-destruct in November. I read the article, but I found nothing there that was comforting at all for either candidate. A couple criticisms could be considered valid, but overall it seemed to stick the fingers in the eyes of both candidates and, by default, those of us who are DEMS and want to see a viable win in November.

They are older, socially conservative (code word for racist) democrats who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Posted by: nash | April 24, 2008 8:27 AM

Nash seems to be OBSESSED with so-called "code words"....

Ping Pong

"I do equally disagree with anyone with Socialist practice."

It doesn't make you a racist. It does mean that you may not completely understand the tenets of Socialism (which by the way is totally different from Communism even though often confused). Even that supposed paragon of Capitalism, Adam Smith, considered certain conditions now called Socialism as being beneficial.

To make it simple, there are certain parts of group dynamics that function better and are actually cheaper if the benefits are spread equally while the expense might be borne unequally simply because it is better for the group as a whole.

Each society has to decide what those parts should be.

See, 50/50 on republicans supporting/opposing Clinton as opponent as opposed to Obama. thanks Ping, and I can say without hesitation, I have never noticed you saying anything that suggested that you might be racist.

It's time for Obama to go negative. The Clintons are easy targets. If you gave me a day, I could write a dozen devastating ads, and I'm an amateur.

#1 would be an ad saying that Clinton voted for the Iraq war, even though she knew it was wrong, because she was AFRAID OF LOOKING WEAK. In the background I'd show shots of flag draped-coffins returning from Iraq. I'd have wounded vets saying "Hillary betrayed us."

Let's see if Hillary is comfortable in THAT kitchen.

Posted by: nash | April 24, 2008 9:12 AM

Nash, it's TIME for Obama to go negative? Are you for real? He started his negative attacks against her when she was in first place in the polls... remember the less that stellar debate performance she had? Obama was already taking her on after her campaign determined he had to in order to turn the numbers around. To their credit it worked. So much for "new politics"...

As Hillary said at the time "they [OBAMA and the other candidates] are not attacking me because I am a woman... they are attacking me because I'm ahead".

Really Nash, your credibility is taking a serious hit here. You are so partisan for Obama that you don't even see the shit his campaign has done in the most traditional ways possible, to knock down Hillary. And then you expect her to bend over and say "please kick me again".

And Nash, Ive asked like 3 times now... and I have to wonder. Are you really an academic professor or not? All I asked was the discipline and you totally ignore it. Why? I mean you said you're a professor, so why not say "Professor of [you fill in the blank]"... Or is "professor" just a pet word for your desire to educate people via blogs and so forth? And yes, it probably isn't any of our business, but it does seem weird that you are so quiet about it.

As always, the Republicans planned to make this election about "social issues."

Now that Obama is probably going to win the nomination, the key GOP social issue will be race.

And the Clintons were nice enough to get the ball rolling early. They have convinced large numbers of Democrats that "a black man can't win." (This also provides cover for the racists in the party who wouldn't vote for Obama under any circumstances.)

pogo, an apology, I am "green" as a blogger and therefore unfamiliar and my post was an error.

toast

Heather, a lovely sentiment. 11;05 post

toast

The Clintons played the race card and their followers (as we have seen on Crawfordslist) let them get away with it.

The end result will be that McCain will win.

Posted by: nash | April 24, 2008 10:17 AM

jeez man, cool it! Someone get this guy some medication!!

When you are talking older , how old are you talking about? 50? 60? 70? 80? There are a lot of socially conservative people here in Holland. I've never heard them called racists. Most are just called Dutch people.

Posted by: Corey | April 24, 2008 9:39 AM

Corey ? Here in Holland? I thought you were in the states...

Nash

"They have convinced large numbers of Democrats that "a black man can't win."

Would you care to provide specifics of where and when they did this, or is this just another one of your no proof empty remarks?

I've heard both of the Clintons say that there is no doubt he could win, but that they believe she would be a better president.

toast, what you talkin' 'bout? From yesterday? I think you just confused my byline, which was above, with jamie's comment which was below and thought I had posted the comment.

Eurotom,
Go read the Rowe opinion piece.

He lays bare the weakness of both candidates.

It addresses several of my misgivings about both and is why I've not been able to enthusiastically support either.

Both have glaring major flaws.

Jack

It is rather comical that the self proclaimed "winner" is not sure of himself and fears debates. Second point I would like to make is that the Obama people keep telling us how rules are important and that is why Michigan and Florida should not count. Well, based on that logic, go all the way and stop whining. The DNC process does not have a clause: " and when one candidate thinks he/she is the winner, the other must drop out for the good of the party".

The DNC process is broken. It's broken cause the kangaroo court that did not let Florida seat the delegation was stacked by the Obama camp.

The more Hillary stays in the more she shows America that she is the competent candidate. One is done for and the other cannot handle a debate or a press conference, remind anyone of our current leader?

So, Obama people, this is not a school project. Just because you put up a sign, walked a precinct, gave some dollars, you don't get to win. A movement is a lifetime commitment. So, learn from Hillary and struggle all your life.

And please tell Tom Haydn's wife that her bliss will not be interrupted with reality.

Don't expect anything from that silly man Nasch

Empty vessels make the most noise

Nash

"They have convinced large numbers of Democrats that "a black man can't win."

Would you care to provide specifics of where and when they did this, or is this just another one of your no proof empty remarks?

I've heard both of the Clintons say that there is no doubt he could win, but that they believe she would be a better president.

Posted by: Jamie | April 24, 2008 11:26 AM

Thanks for that reminder Jamie, but don't expect a good answer... Facts are such pesky little things to deal with...

ET: I teach in a program called "Irrelevant Studies." Our goal is to provide undergraduates with absolutely NO useful skills so that, after they graduate, they have no choice but to apply to law school. (It's either that or night shift supervisor at Burger King.)

Hi Jack, I did read it... and it did exactly what you said... exposed the flaws of both candidates. I just didn't feel good at all when reading it... It was just typical Republican denigrating of two good candidates running for the Democratic nomination.... I also got the feeling that he was saying "choose who you want, but McBush... errr, McCain is gonna win in November".

jamie - that comment of nash's was from the NYT article as a potential problem for Obama - stretched to become a fact (based on not a lot).
"For Mr. Obama, race presents two potential problems: Voters opposing him simply because he is black, and Democrats who will not support him because they do not think a black man can win a general election."

If you do the numbers, about 7% of PA dem voters (a bit over 1/3 of the voters who said race was important to them in their vote) would not vote for Obama in the general.

"The results in Pennsylvania suggest that problems exist. A poll of Democratic voters conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the television networks and The Associated Press found that Mrs. Clinton drew 63 percent of the white vote while Mr. Obama drew 90 percent of the black vote, mirroring a pattern in many other states. More strikingly, the poll found that 18 percent of Democrats said that race mattered to them in this contest — and just 63 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election."

If PA is any indication, your 10% figure about racial animosity above was actually a little high.

So Nash, in other words, you are not a real professor...

ET do you think he has as many scholarly publications as Prof Obama?

nash, you're a professor of sociology?

For those who are committed to social change, I recommend that you check out CHANGE.ORG ... News, information and calls to action... Enjoy. http://www.change.org

Flatus I don't know... I like Nash's humor and even agree with some things he says, but today he's going too far for my taste, but hey, that's just me...

ET: Below is the link to the NYT piece on race & the Dem primary. Thank the Clintons for making race the #1 issue. I don't accept the argument that this wasn't their intent. They are far too clever to have done this by accident. Nor will I accept the perverse argument that this was all a plot by the Obama campaign. That's Clinton spin.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/us/politics/24obama.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

ET: What is "real,"after all? If an academic falls in the forest, does s/he ask a rhetorical question?

Whoa y'all, Yes, I am a Republican, yes, I am anti-Clinton, yes, I don't know much about the Health care system (but I've never claimed to know anything about it), but I want to vote for Obama in the General Election!
I will only be voting for McCain if Obama doesn't get the nomination from the Democratic Party.

Now regarding my earlier posts, I was just pointing out issues that I think Obama should use against Clinton, nothing in any of my stuff was that negative, just pionts to counteract her Everyman claims. And honestly I'm appauled by the amount of money all of these politcal consultants and pollers are getting paid by any of the campaigns.

pogo: I changed my major about nine times in college. I have trouble remembering what I ended up as. (Once you get tenure, no one really seems to care anyway.)

Pogo,

"If PA is any indication, your 10% figure about racial animosity above was actually a little high."

Well I have to admit that the 10% was my WAG (wild ass guessing) figure. It usually holds up fairly well for all circumstances.

10% of the world is populated by total asses of varying degrees in every quality you can imagine. To offset them there are 10% noble souls in the same quality. Everyone else is somewhere on the spectrum in between.

If you live in a town of 1,000 people, you know the 100 you should probably avoid and the 100 you can always approach for help. (life is simple). For the most part the other 800 won't give you too much trouble.

If you live in a city of one million, the 100,000 to avoid and the 100,000 to befriend and support are much harder to identify. (life can be very uncertain except that your odds are really pretty good with the other 800,000 so don't waste any time being frightened).

JennBe, I think you are cool even if you are a Republican, and as someone who has really disliked Republicans, I think it's cool that we can be friends. I checked out your blog.. your pic is really cute. Are you the mother of the little red heads in the various photos?

Tom

nash---------------------------

Race Man

http://www.tnr.com/story.html?id=aa0cd21b-0ff2-4329-88a1-69c6c268b304

( Afraid to read this? )

The NC ad is a trial run by the national GOP. They want to see how everyone reacts: the MSM, the Dems, the voters.

Call it an experiment.

By itself it's not that important, but the "buzz" that it generates will guide the GOP strategists.

nash - chuckle/snort. Me, too. I meant to ask whether you teach sociology, not that you took it - I think everyone who went to college between 1960 and 1980 took soc. Be sure that in irrelevant studies you don't spill the beans and teach your students to ask whether the customer wants fries with their burger - that would be a practical skill and outside the scope of the class. Thankfully, I never took any classes that taught such useful skills.

"Thank the Clintons for making race the #1 issue. I don't accept the argument that this wasn't their intent."

LOL
What a brain dead comment.

Clinton was polling 50% with AA's running against a black man.
So she said to herself, "I think I will run a racist campaign and blow off my 50% support amoung African Americans. I will more than make it up from all the white racist in the Democratic party. I can even win in South Carolina with a racist campaign, who needs the black vote. We have sooooooo many racist whites in the party."

LOL
Nash
Why don't you try for once to use the brain God gave you.

Jack

jamie, I'd have to say I'm impressed with your WAG. It's within the MOEof most polls.

Yep

the Rev Wright ad in NC is just to see how it plays so they can punch it up and flesh it out for November.......without costing them on the national stage......it's only NC, and only for the Gov race......
Ha ha ha ha ha ha

silly republicans.........

Posted by: sturgeone | April 24, 2008 8:00 AM

oops.....forgot to follow CC's lead and link to the post instead of copy/paste.......sorry.

NEW THREAD

Pogo,

Thank you. It is a system for staying pretty positive about everything until someone gives you a reason not to be.

Sturge

In Louisiana they don't even use the Wright ad or any of the sleazy stuff. They just point and laugh.
well not quite but you can almost hear the laughter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju6HszQqFT8

Jack

NEW THREAD

Thank you Toast
I always appreciate your kindness to me☺

Sincerely,
Heather