Pennsylvania is on. For a time it seemed that Barack Obama would try to downplay the Keystone State’s April 22 primary, but in recent days the Democratic presidential frontrunner has done what it takes to persuade doubters that he is in it to win.

Signs abound of Obama’s seriousness: Transferring his Iowa coordinator to run the Pennsylvania campaign, upping television advertising buys, personally canvassing the state on a weeklong bus tour and headlining another round of big-crowd stadium events.

Going for a Pennsylvania win is risky, given Hillary Rodham Clinton’s sizable polling leads. But the Clinton camp might have erred in raising expectation’s for a big victory. Obama is now doing enough to compete in the state and possibly knock Clinton out of the race once and for all.

Former presidential contender John Edwards finally took sides on the remainder of the Democratic field -- BOTH SIDES:

Edwards on Barack Obama: "We are blessed, first, to have an extraordinarily talented African American who could be the next president of the United States. There's no way to contest the fact that he's inspired this country."

Edwards on Hillary Rodham Clinton: "And Senator Clinton, who has served America for so long and so well, and has shown so much strength and leadership, has really forged an extraordinarily historic campaign as a woman for the nomination and for the presidency."

Pressed for an endorsement, Edwards told reporters, "When I have something to say, I'll let you know."

More on Edwards' first speech since dropping out of the race.

For the first time since before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap, Democratic presidential frontrunner Barack Obama enjoys a statistically significant lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Gallup Daily tracking survey of party voters.

Many reasons could be imagined for this latest Obama boost, but my guess is that Clinton is suffering among Democratic voters for being portrayed as a party wrecker. Depicting Clinton as Tanya Harding bent on knee capping her opponent was probably as devastating as anything else for her.

To counter this developing narrative, Clinton needs to forcefully lay out a feasible path to the nomination that undercuts the notion that she is on a kamikaze course.

Rick Sloan, Communications Director for the International Machinists and Aerospace Workers Union, today emailed this scenario to the media:

• 1247 Delegates: Hold on to the 1247 pledged delegates HRC has amassed since January 3rd
• 1497: Maintain the support of the 250 super delegates who have endorsed her candidacy already
• 1648: Add 151 pledged delegates to her total with ten point wins in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico
• 1860: Add another 122 pledged delegates by winning or placing a close second in Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota
• 2046: Seat the Florida and Michigan delegations adding 186 pledged delegates to her total
• 2095: By seating the Florida and Michigan delegations, she gains 49 uncommitted delegates or super delegates
• 2215: Secure the votes of 120 of the 330 remaining super delegates to surpass the 2208 delegates to be nominated

-- Rick Sloan, International Machinists and Aerospace Workers Union [Note: If Florida and Michigan delegates are counted -- as Sloan  does in the above scenario -- the winning number grows to 2,208]

Craig at the Virginia Festival of the Book
Saturday (3/29) 2:00 PM EST
Barnes & Noble, 1035A Emmet Street
Charlottesville, VA  (434) 984-0461

 

Lawyers in politics are unavoidable, but sometimes their convoluted word construction can be maddening. Parsing Clintonian language is a famously difficult enterprise. But Barack Obama is proving to be equally elusive at times.

Consider what the Democratic presidential frontrunner said today on ABC’s “The View” about his controversial former preacher, Jeremiah Wright: “Had the reverend not retired and had he not acknowledged that what he had said had deeply offended people and were inappropriate and mischaracterized what I believe is the greatness of this country, for all its flaws, then I wouldn't have felt comfortable staying there at the church.”

There is plenty of squish in those words that raises questions, but this phrase is truly confounding: “. . . had he not acknowledged that what he had said had deeply offended people.”

Was Obama implying that Wright has offered such an acknowledgment? If so, there is no record anywhere of that ever happening.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton says that the Illinois senator was not suggesting that Wright had shown any contriteness. Instead, Burton claims, Obama was “clearly saying that were Rev. Wright not retiring, he [Obama] would need to be assured that the reverend understood why what he had said had deeply offended people.”

Maybe that’s what Obama was saying, but it sure wasn’t clear.

Craig at the Virginia Festival of the Book
Saturday (3/29) 2:00 PM EST
Barnes & Noble, 1035A Emmet Street
Charlottesville, VA  (434) 984-0461

 

Craig on MSNBC "Hardball"
Friday (3/28) 7:10 PM EST

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

"The Space Between Clinton and Obama"
by CQ's David Nather (1/14)

Craig at the Virginia Festival of the Book
Saturday (3/29) 2:00 PM EST
Barnes & Noble, 1035A Emmet Street
Charlottesville, VA  (434) 984-0461

 

Craig on MSNBC Today
1:30 / 3:00 / 4:00 PM EST
. . . and on MSNBC "Hardball" 5:10 PM EST

CQ's Jonathan Allen, Colby Itkowitz and Video Producer Andrew Satter talk to Democrats in Lancaster County, Pa., a Republican stronghold in Amish country.

Text version:
Pennsylvania Dems Fired Up About Being Primary Players

Why is Barack Obama still talking about Jeremiah Wright?

Either the Obama camp thinks that the Wright mess still hurts, requiring additional defensive maneuvers, or there is something about keeping the story alive that helps, such as rallying African American voters for the last round of nominating contests.

“This is somebody that was preaching three sermons at least a week for 30 years and it got boiled down … into a half-minute sound clip and just played it over and over and over again,” Obama said in North Carolina on Wednesday, referring to the public outrage over his former pastor’s fiery words.

After returning from his Easter vacation out of the spotlight, the Democratic frontrunner probably could have gotten away with ignoring the Wright issue. Polls show Obama more or less weathered the flap, although it raised doubts among some white voters.

While Obama was on his trip to the Virgin Islands, Hillary Rodham Clinton unwittingly did him a favor by moving the spotlight from Wright to herself, exaggerating the dangers she faced on a trip to Bosnia 12 years ago.

But far from moving past the Wright debate, Obama devoted a chunk of his stump speech on Wednesday to again defending the controversial Chicago minister, saying that the episode was a result of “misunderstandings on both sides.”

Last week after Obama gave a generally well-received speech explaining his ties to Wright, aides to the Illinois senator said they were finished with the topic and would move on. In abandoning that plan perhaps they were reacting to Clinton’s attempt to revive the Wright storm at her own damage-control press conference on Tuesday, but that would mean they are taking her bait.

Whatever his reason might be for skipping a chance to put the story behind him, you have to give Obama credit for loyalty in continuing to stand up for his longtime spiritual adviser.

Craig at the Virginia Festival of the Book
Saturday (3/29) 2:00 PM EST
Barnes & Noble, 1035A Emmet Street
Charlottesville, VA  (434) 984-0461

Craig on MSNBC's "Morning Joe"
Thursday (3/27) 6:30 AM EST

Hypothetical polling questions are always dicey, but recent data shows just how much trouble that the Democrats face in November unless their two remaining candidates run together.

For starters, neither Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama performs brilliantly against Republican nominee-to-be John McCain in hypothetical match-ups, suggesting that Democrats should not be over-confident about their chances in the general election. In pivotal Missouri, for instance, McCain handily leads both Democrats right now.

Perhaps as a team the Democratic contenders would fare better than they do separately against McCain.

But it’s the message from Democratic voters interviewed by pollsters that should most trouble the party. Twenty-eight percent of Clinton’s supporters said they'd vote for McCain in the general election if she isn't the nominee, according to Gallup. Nineteen percent of Obama’s supporters said they would bolt if their man doesn't get the nod.

In another survey, Democrats were asked if Clinton or Obama should withdraw from the race. Remarkably, the same number – 22 percent – said yes in each case.

What a formula for a shotgun wedding between the nomination rivals: Weak matchups against McCain as individuals, threats of Democratic defections if either candidate is off the ticket, and equal numbers of party voters wishing one would give up and support the other.

Craig at the Virginia Festival of the Book
Saturday (3/29) 2:00 PM EST
Barnes & Noble, 1035A Emmet Street
Charlottesville, VA  (434) 984-0461

Craig on MSNBC's "Morning Joe"
Thursday (3/27) 6:30 AM EST

Given the endless parsing of Clintonian motives, it would seem fitting to suspect that the great Bosnian fib was not so accidental. It is possible that Hillary Rodham Clinton benefited from her "mistake," as she called her recent assertion of once landing in Bosnia under sniper fire.

Although seemingly embarrassing for her, this episode did serve to provoke repeated airings of video showing Clinton on her trip to Bosnia 12 years ago looking more like a Commander in Chief than like a First Lady. While hardly arriving under a hail of bullets, as she has repeatedly claimed, the video clips do show Clinton in a much grittier setting than anything that might be expected for a purely ceremonial visit.

Not saying this flap was clearly purposeful. Just saying that the visuals are not entirely bad for Clinton. And this could be one of those stories where the pictures register with voters more than the controversy itself.

Craig at the Virginia Festival of the Book
Saturday (3/29) 2:00 PM EST
Barnes & Noble, 1035A Emmet Street
Charlottesville, VA  (434) 984-0461

Craig on MSNBC's "Morning Joe"
Thursday (3/27) 6:30 AM EST

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Craig at the Virginia Festival of the Book
Saturday (3/29) 2:00 PM EST
Barnes & Noble, 1035A Emmet Street
Charlottesville, VA  (434) 984-0461

Of all the ideas floating around among Democrats seeking to avoid a summer-long meltdown, the early June superdelegate “mini-convention” seems to be the most fair, reasonable and obtainable solution on the table.

The idea is to have superdelegates meet right after the primaries conclude and settle this feud between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton by casting their votes and putting someone over the top for an overall winning majority when combined with elected delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses.

Democrats can keep on griping about superdelegate power, but the fact is that they are part of the rules and neither candidate can articulate a feasible path to winning enough elected (pledged) delegates for a nominating majority.

Superdelegates are going to decide this thing no matter how much anyone complains about it. It is just a matter of when they decide. The default position is that we will not find out for sure where these unelected party elites stand until the August convention, which invites many more months of continuing hostilities between the warring camps (unless someone drops out).

But here’s the rub on the superdelegate mini-convention: Unless both candidates agree in advance and in writing to abide by the results -- sort of like binding arbitration -- then there will be nothing to stop the loser from pressing on.

Assuming that this experiment gets someone to the magic winning number, the loser must suspend campaigning or there will not be much for Democrats to gain in trying this approach.

Craig on “Morning Joe”
Monday (3/24) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST

Barack Obama got a boost at week's end, making up ground he had lost to Hillary Clinton in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates on the Democratic presidential nomination. The latest report shows 48% of Democratic voters favoring Obama and 45% Clinton. 

Now on Poll Tracker:
Sizing Up The General Election State-By-State

Craig on "Morning Joe"
Monday (3/24) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson’s written endorsement of Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination might have included faint praise for Hillary Rodham Clinton, but this line of text was particularly devastating for her: “It is time, however, for Democrats to stop fighting amongst ourselves and to prepare for the tough fight we will face against John McCain in the fall.”

Even if Richardson had not himself run for the presidency, that was a powerful directive coming from a former Clinton administration official, Hispanic leader and key-state governor. If anything close to a consensus for Richardson’s statement emerges among party elites, Clinton could face a choice between slugging out this nomination race or preserving her viability for a future run.

Obama’s best chance to end this fight before the convention is to bring the Richardsons of the Democratic political world together in a call for Clinton to drop out. But if Clinton scores a big win in Pennsylvania on April 22 and raises the money to keep going, she might pass the point of no return.

• TECH UPDATE: Our CQ IT team is on the case regarding recent slow posting times for comments. Please be patient. Help is on the way.

Craig on "Morning Joe"
MSNBC Monday (3/24) 6:30 AM EST

Watching Joe Lieberman smoothly nudge John McCain out of a jam in Jordan this week revived talk of the two friends as a bipartisan duo for the White House. Lieberman, the Connecticut senator who once ran as a Democratic vice presidential candidate, teams up with McCain, the Arizona senator who is destined to be the Republican presidential nominee.

As the all-hawk ticket from both parties, McCain-Lieberman as a presidential match-up would shove the fringes of both parties aside and steer firmly to the center. And in a weird way, by making bipartisan history these two longtime Washington veterans might appeal to the desire for change.

Or maybe they would come across as some sort of outdated vaudevillian act, like Walter Matthau and George Burns in the “The Sunshine Boys.” There was a certain comic timing in Lieberman's public coaching of McCain to correct his mistake in linking Iran and al-Qaida.

CQ Video Producer Andrew Satter

• Protests and Positioning Mark Anniversary of Iraq Invasion
• Selective Memory On The Iraq War Debate
• McCain Lauds UK Troops in Iraq
• Obama Ties Economic Woes to Iraq War
• Murtha Endorses Clinton

How amazing that Democrats have a frontrunner who is seemingly afraid to allow re-votes in Michigan and Florida. Or at least that is how Barack Obama is allowing it to appear.

Obama is all that stands in the way of letting voters try again in those battleground states. That’s probably a winning strategy for the party nomination. But the general election is another story.

For what it’s worth to Democrats, only Hillary Rodham Clinton has ended up with the political incentive to seat the convention delegates from Michigan and Florida. Obama sees no such advantage.

A Democratic national convention without Florida and Michigan suggests the need for an Electoral College strategy that contemplates victory without either state in the party’s November tally.

• Obama States Qualms About Michigan Re-Vote Plan
• Obama Slipping Against Both Clinton And McCain

While Barack Obama’s personal background and knack for oratory would certainly make him a president who can use the bully pulpit to make a difference in race relations, the Democratic contender’s stands on policy specifics are not at all clear.

While rhetoric is helpful, presidents also must make hard choices on racial issues such as affirmative action. For instance, would Obama expand or restrict the inclusion of disadvantage whites in minority preference programs for Small Business Administration loans?  Bill Clinton as president aggravated some African-American leaders by nudging open the door to SBA loans for low-income whites.

Obama won deserved praise for his race-conscious speech on Tuesday, particularly for how he balanced much of his rhetoric between the plight of black Americans facing racism and the resentment of whites against affirmative action programs. Beyond the rhetoric, how would he translate that balancing act into policy?

Good luck getting answers. Media inquiries to the Obama campaign about affirmative action specifics produce responses that are at least as vague as the candidate’s speeches. The Boston Globe this week made the latest run at obtaining affirmative details and got this written response:

Affirmative action programs “can open up opportunities otherwise closed to qualified minorities" without harming whites. Yet, "we shouldn't ignore that race continues to matter" in American society, Obama said; to suggest otherwise "turns a blind eye to both our history and our experience - and relieves us of the responsibility to make things right."

-- Obama campaign statement, Boston Globe (3/18)

The Globe’s request to a spokesperson for more concrete answers got no response. It is politically smart to steer clear of race policy specifics in a campaign, but not so easy once you are in the White House.

At first, John McCain's latest Iraq-related claim seemed plausible enough -- until it turned out to be wrong.

On a victory tour of Iraq this week, the Republican presidential nominee-to-be repeatedly declared that Iran had become a training ground for al-Qaida fighters – until corrected by his traveling companion, Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Independent.

Lucky for McCain, squabbling Democrats are grabbing the headlines. Otherwise, the Arizona senator’s gaffe might be getting more buzz. Still, the miscue might come back to haunt McCain.

Not only did the mistake cast doubt on the foreign policy expertise that McCain intends to emphasize in the general election campaign. Perhaps more importantly, the incident suggests the possibility that McCain is prone to the same sort of overstatement that President George W. Bush has deployed to get his way in the war.

Barack Obama gave two speeches in one today that might have been best done separately. He tried to connect the national reaction against his pastor’s wacky ideas to the need for a national conversation about race.

But it is not because the country avoids grappling with racial issues that Jeremiah Wright’s weird and unsubstantiated claims shocked so many people. They are shocked because the longtime pastor to a front-running presidential candidate said a lot of bizarre stuff, like arguing that Americans got what they deserved on 9/11.

Obama did a good job of explaining more about why he valued Wright’s spiritual advice through the years, while distancing himself from the Chicago preacher’s most controversial statements. And he did a great job in the other part of his speech, calling for an unprecedented national dialogue on race.

Attempting to elevate the Wright flap to a broad sociological discussion might get Obama out of a rough political spot by changing the subject. But if he is saying that a healing conversation about race requires better understanding of his crazy preacher, many voters would rather talk about something else.

Video Trail Mix: Obama’s Spring Cleaning

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Tues (3/18)
RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:30 AM EST

 

While Democrats squabble, Republican nominee-to-be John McCain travels abroad, including a surprise visit to Iraq. This is the sort of thing that campaign gurus for Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama had hoped to be doing right about now, launching an international tour for a presumed nominee. But instead it is McCain who is auditioning for Commander in Chief.

Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Tues (3/18)
RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:30 AM EST

CQ Correspondent Jonathan Allen and Producer Andrew Satter in PA

Produced by CQ's Andrew Sattter

Michigan Dems Agree on June 3 Do-Over

While Florida Democrats search for a limited do-over plan (see Webcam report above), Michigan Democrats are close to an agreement with presidential candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama to hold a new primary. If that happens. look for stepped-up pressure on Florida to re-run a full primary despite the enormous cost.

ORLANDO -- Florida Democrats pushing a vote-by-mail plan to redo the state’s presidential primary lost faith today that a deal can be struck to go forward.

 “This is by no means a done deal,” state Democratic chair Karen Thurman said as she officially unveiled her proposal at a press conference this afternoon. “But it is the only solution we can provide.”

The party’s presidential candidates, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, showed little enthusiasm for Thurman’s plan. Most of Florida’s congressional delegation opposed it.

The apparent demise of Thurman’s proposal increases the likelihood that Florida’s hopes for restoring its convention delegation now rest with the national Democratic Party’s credentials committee. And many state Democrats are now turning their attention to how they will lobby that panel, which would rule in the days leading to the party's August convention.

For starters, Clinton enthusiasts note that the convention credentials committee is co-chaired by three former employees of Bill Clinton’s White House: Alexis Herman, former secretary of labor, James Roosevelt Jr., a former associate commissioner in the Social Security Administration under Clinton, and Eliseo Roques-Arroyo, a White House Consultant on Presidential Travel and Advance from 1998 to 2000.

Only 22 other members of that 186-member committee have so far been chosen -- all selected by Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. The remaining 161 seats on the panel will be divvied up among delegates from states.

The Obama camp intends to fight Clinton’s credentials committee crusade to seat the disputed delegations. One reason for Obama to do so is that seating the Florida and Michigan delegations would raise the bar for how many delegates the frontunner needs to win the nomination and force Clinton to drop out – from 2,025 delegates to a majority number above 2,200.

State Democrats Release Re-Vote Plan

ORLANDO –- Florida Democrats today put the finishing touches on a presidential re-vote plan that almost no one likes, but represents the last hope (while perhaps not the best hope) for salvaging the state’s nominating role without a bruising fight at the national convention.

CQ Politics has obtained the complete memo on the Florida Democratic Party's re-vote plan.

 Craig's Florida Webcam Report on the New Plan

The idea is to combine a vote-by-mail process with in-person voting centers around the state to accommodate anyone who needs assistance. A slew of details are still unresolved, including how to pay the $10 million price tag and exactly how to work with state officials to verify voter signatures on mailed ballots.

Whatever the obstacles, this is it for Florida Democrats. Time is running out to come up with a plan that can be approved and implemented before the June 10 deadline for all states to vote on choosing convention delegates.

Without an alternative plan, Florida would have to seek legitimacy for its Jan. 29 primary results before the national party’s credentials committee in a convention-eve showdown that would certainly become a vicious spectacle if the nomination is still contested.

But this is also the last chance for the Democratic National Committee to preserve party order in the nation’s biggest swing state. Party leaders in Washington smugly dismiss Florida’s plight as fair punishment for leapfrogging the primary calendar without permission, but they might not be so smug in November if it turns out that this mess costs Democrats the White House.

Craig on "Morning Joe"
Thursday (3/13) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST

Craig on "Morning Joe"
Thursday (3/13) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST

Associated Press: "Barack Obama coasted to victory in Mississippi's Democratic primary on Tuesday, the latest in a string of racially polarized presidential contests against Hillary Rodham Clinton across the Deep South. Obama was winning roughly 90 percent of the black vote but only about one-quarter of the white vote, extending a pattern that carried him to victory in earlier primaries in South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana." (Associated Press)

More AP: Obama Gets Scant White Support in Mississippi

On CQ Politics

ORLANDO -- The devilish details already threaten to scuttle a vote by mail to restore Florida’s legitimacy in the Democratic presidential nominating process.

With over 4 million registered Democrats in the state, it would be a grand but potentially disastrous experiment to conduct such a thing with integrity. Just verifying the signatures on the returned ballots could be a nightmare reminiscent of the 2000 debacle.

The Trail Mix Do-More Solution

Here’s a solution: Only send ballots to registered Democrats who did NOT vote in the Jan. 29 primary (voting records show who voted and who didn't). That would cut almost in half the number of votes to process by mail. For choosing delegates to the national convention count both the new mail-in results and the original primary. Call it a Do-More instead of a Do-Over.

Barack Obama should have the advantage in the new mail-in balloting if his supporters are correct in arguing that many of his voters did not show up on Jan. 29 because they thought it would not count. Hillary Rodham Clinton obviously benefits from any solution that counts the primary she’s already won by 17 percentage points.

Such pros and cons for each candidate should be a reason to consider this approach. No solution is going to work if it only benefits one side.

SPITZER UPDATE: "Even-Keeled" Heir in the Wings (Governing Magazine)

There goes another superdelegate for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s entanglement with a prostitution ring is also lousy news for Barack Obama, who would prefer to see the news media yakking about his Wyoming caucus victory on Saturday and his expected win today in the Mississippi primary.

UPDATE: "Even-Keeled" Heir in the Wings
(Governing Magazine)

Considering that any falling dominoes in the wake of a Spitzer resignation will likely maintain Clinton’s home state lineup of superdelegates as other Democratic supporters of the New York senator fill the vacancies, it is the timing of this story for Obama that matters most to him – for good and for bad.

While the Spitzer scandal steps on coverage of Obama’s final victories before the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, it also complicates Clinton’s plans this week to rev up the focus on Obama’s ties to Chicago political patron Tony Rezko, who is on trial for alleged fraud and corruption.

Clinton might want to hold the Rezko attacks for a few days until her home state governor and supporter fades from the front pages.

• Video: Eliot Spitzer's Statement
• PollTracker: Most New Yorkers Think Spitzer Should Resign 
• Eric Pfeiffer's Ground Game: RGA Calls on Spitzer to Resign
• From Governing Magazine: Spitzer's Morality Tale

It is hard to tell what, if anything, matters about roughly 9,000 voters in Wyoming's presidential caucuses on Saturday choosing between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. The raw numbers are so tiny -- Obama won with just 5,378 votes -- and the state is so reliably Republican in general elections that it would be easy to dismiss the whole affair.

But Obama's Wyoming victory again demonstrates that momentum does not exist in this campaign. Just four days earlier Clinton posted wins in major states, Ohio and Texas. If momentum means anything, surely those victories would have garnered the 2,000 extra votes that Clinton needed to at least pull even with Obama in Wyoming.

Likewise, Obama's month long string of February victories seemed to gain him little new ground for the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4. Going back to the beginning of this race, Obama’s Iowa victory did not beget a win in New Hampshire. Clinton’s Nevada success did not even help her remain competitive in South Carolina, where Obama’s runaway win apparently did not impress the biggest states voting on Super Tuesday in early February.

Going forward in this campaign, perhaps it would be best to drop the word momentum from our political vocabulary. Voters appear to be doing a funny thing -- when the race turns to their states they are making up their own minds with little regard for what happens in other states.

Weighted Delegate Allocations Would Give 1.7M Primary Voters Some Credit

ORLANDO -- Here in Central Florida, a world leader in golf courses per capita, we call it a mulligan -- a shot re-taken because the first one did not work out so well. Still, it doesn't count in regulation play.

But Florida Democrats are abuzz with talk of a political do-over that would make the state's presidential nominating delegates count at the national party convention -- let the voters try again, but this time let them just mail it in.

Not so fast. A mulligan-by-mail might be the easiest, cheapest and quickest way to get Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean out of  the sorry mess he created by shunning the nation's biggest swing state to give tiny Nevada and South Carolina early spots on the voting calendar. But more than 1.7 million Democrats who voted in Florida's Jan. 29 primary still deserve to be counted in some way.

Any ad hoc system for a second round of voting ought to assign some delegates based upon the results of the primary already held.

Complex Delegate Rules a Party Tradition 

Allocating delegates across multiple sets of balloting is not so unusual in the Democratic Party’s byzantine rules. Most caucus states do not settle on national convention delegates until completing at least one or two in-state conventions. Texas, which voted nearly a week ago, is still trying to distribute delegates based upon its so-called two-step system.

Sure, giving any credence to Florida’s January primary benefits Hillary Rodham Clinton, who won by a margin of 16.7 percentage points. But the principle would remain the same no matter who had won -- those Democrats who bothered to vote should not be ignored because the Republican governor and GOP-controlled Florida Legislature enacted a state law that leapfrogged the DNC calendar. (That law also violated national Republican rules, but the GOP only stripped the Florida party of half its convention delegation and there was no campaigning ban.)

After championing the rights of Florida voters in the 2000 debacle, is the DNC really prepared to erase the votes of 1.7 million Democrats in a state that has proven to be decisive in general elections?

Ballot Reform Tradeoff

Before this meltdown, the DNC could have given Florida a waiver as it did for other states in unusual circumstances. And none of those granted waivers faced a situation like Florida's Democratic leaders, who were powerless to stop a Republican drive to mess with the presidential primary calendar.

Florida Democrats, by the way, went along with the calendar mischief largely because they won a significant compromise with Republicans in the same piece of legislation -- to end paperless voting in the state's new computerized balloting system so that a paper trail will be available in case the machine tallies are challenged. Despite achieving a reform long sought by national party leaders, Florida Democrats were still punished for agreeing to an early primary date in exchange for it.

Excuses Aside, Voters Saw Obama Ads

Barack Obama’s team argues that it would not be fair to count the Florida Primary results because both sides agreed not to campaign in the state.

Well, I was here in Orlando for the entire month leading up to that primary, recuperating from a broken ankle and, sadly, watching a lot of television. I saw Obama’s television advertisements every day, several times a day, running on at least two cable news channels. If cable sales procedures really did not allow excluding one state from a national buy, as Obama aides claim, it does not change the fact that the ads were there at saturation levels on screens throughout Florida.

Likewise, Clinton’s labor friends worked the grass roots for her throughout Florida. And both candidates played games with the rules by doing photo opportunities or press availabilities while attending fundraisers that did not violate the campaign ban.

While neither ran anything close to real campaigns in Florida, Clinton and Obama did enough to keep it an even playing field and those 1.7 million Democrats who cast ballots on Jan. 29 ought to count for something.

• Obama Wins Wyoming Caucuses, 7 Delegates
• Illinois Democrat Wins Hastert's Old Seat
• No Final Outcomes in Louisiana Special Election Primaries

Web Picks . . .

• All Eyes on Illinois' Tossup Race to Fill Hastert Seat
• Your Spin Guide to the Illinois Special Election
• Saturday’s Louisiana Primaries: Katrina Still Reverberates
• What Will Happen in Wyoming on Saturday?

On the wires . . .

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

It is understandable, but not excusable, that the news media is trying to fit the unprecedented chaos of the Democratic presidential race into the world as we have known it for many elections. That is what we do -- cram unknowable things into little boxes that everyone can play with.

Delegate counting in the Democratic contest has become one of those goofy media exercises now that we have such a tight race where the outcome is not likely to be settled for a very long time. The so-called "hard counts" of delegates could prove to be even less reliable than predicting the outcome of a sporting event with nothing but statistics.

Still, we think “the math” will make all the confusion disappear. Sorry, but no matter how many graphics generators, telestrators or calculators we deploy, this is politics. It is not algebra class. And in this campaign, it looks like the only count that matters will be the first ballot at the Democratic national convention.

The Caucus Myth

For starters, forget about hard counting delegates from just about any caucus state. In many cases, including Iowa, delegates are not directly elected to the national convention. Instead, only delegates to in-state conventions are picked. And final choices on national delegates are not made until late spring, usually at statewide conventions.

Pledged But Not Bound

There is also a dirty secret about pledged delegates, those who are directly elected in primaries. They are “pledged,” but not all are “bound.” Under Democratic Party rules they do not have to vote for the candidate chosen by primary voters (although some states bind them by statute for at least the first convention ballot). Sure, they are bound by conscience -- but don’t forget, many delegates are politicians whose conscience might not be their guiding light if circumstances fundamentally change by convention time.

Super Wild Cards

And then there are the near-800 super delegates -- unelected, unbound and unlikely to present profiles in courage when the going gets tough. Around 75 of them have not even been picked yet, perhaps the ultimate wild card in this unpredictable campaign.

Of course, these caveats (and many others) are too numerous to mention when the news media reports “hard counts” of Democratic delegates. But at a minimum we should be calling these counts “estimates” only.

At least when we report economic numbers we usually call them “indicators.” It is time for such modesty in Democratic delegate counting -- just a slight nod at least to the fact that in uncharted waters like this we really don’t know anything for sure.

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama might be stuck with each other – not just for the long haul to the Democratic nominating convention, but well beyond. They might have to run together, whatever the order and whether they like it or not.

Clinton’s psychological boost in winning the Ohio and Texas popular votes for Tuesday’s primaries does not change the delegate math working against her. She only kept Obama from closing the deal on the party nod right now, putting on hold a planned effort by Democratic elites to nudge her out of the race.

Clinton still has virtually no chance to overtake Obama’s lead among elected delegates -- and Tuesday's results did not improve her chances. But Obama, while ahead, has virtually no chance to win the necessary majority for victory among those delegates.

The most likely scenario going forward is that unelected delegates, the so-called super delegates, will decide this thing – and they might not make a choice in sufficient numbers to give either hopeful the nomination before the convention.

If Clinton or Obama cannot find some miraculous way to lock down a nominating majority in the remaining primaries and caucuses, look for undecided super delegates to opt for the easiest way out and urge them to run together for the November election.

Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Wed (3/5)
RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:30 AM EST

Join us in Comments for tonight’s showdown between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in Ohio and Texas. And, oh yeah, there is Rhode Island and Vermont (where voters in Brattleboro are also voting on whether to order their local police to arrest George W. Bush and Dick Cheney).

On the Republican side, John McCain might get enough delegates tonight to reach his party’s magic number for the nomination, putting even more pressure on rival Mike Huckabee to give up now or forgo any chance for running mate.

Net Results

• Highlights from Ohio Democratic Exit Poll
• Ohio Polls Have Closed, And ...
• Obama, McCain Win Vermont (And We're Shocked, Shocked ... )
  

Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Wed (3/5)
RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:30 AM EST

If it's Tuesday it must be time to decide the race. Since "Super Tuesday" on Feb. 5, we've been hearing that the next round of voting will settle the outcome of the Democratic presidential campaign. But there is no mathematical possibility that Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama can win enough elected delegates today to claim the nomination. That is not even likely to happen for the rest of the primary season. Unelected super delegates are destined to make the call unless someone pulls out. This makes the rest of the contest more about persuading super delegates than about winning elected delegates -- although a clear lead there would go a long way toward lining up those party elites.

Primary Links

• Clinton Says She's Pushing Ahead
• Obama Pushes Away From Indicted Donor 
• Obama Denies Assuring Canada on NAFTA

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Barack Obama might win the Democratic presidential nomination without Ohio or Pennsylvania, but it sure would not hurt to show some partisan strength in two states that historically decide who gets elected in November.

If Obama cannot beat a wounded Hillary Rodham Clinton in Ohio or Pennsylvania among Democratic primary voters, does he really have much of a chance among general election voters in either state? And if he doesn’t, is Obama truly electable?

First up is Ohio on Tuesday. This is one of a handful of states that George W. Bush barely won -- by less than five percentage points in the 2004 general election. And it is not easy to come up with a successful Electoral College strategy for Democrats that does not include Ohio.

The Ohio Democratic primary would appear to be a must-win for any Democrat hoping to win the White House.

Craig on "Morning Joe"
Monday (3/3) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST

 

I am off this weekend for some yard work, returning Monday. But, as always, the thread is open for your comments -- and here are a few suggestions for things to do on cqpolitics.com:

 View the CQ Election Map

 Election Special Report

 Useful Political Links from CQ's Greg Giroux

 
 Poll Tracker

 PolitiFact.com: Sorting Out the Truth in Politics

 Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

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Craig on "Morning Joe"
Monday (3/3) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST