Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

new thread?

WOO HOO... I'm the first. I'm honored...

Craig, if the people are so stupid to believe that it's nothing because the New York Times was investigating, and if they cannot see his hypocrisy, well then they will continue down this road of electing IDIOTS to office.

I'm not sure that McCain is getting the upper hand on this hand, it's brought to a light apparently something that has brewing for awhile, McCain's coziness with lobbyists. I think there may be another shoe to drop in the story.

Craig,

I agree he wins the "Attack the Messenger" man of the month award, but with word of him saying contradictory things in a deposition in 2002?, I wonder if the New York Times is setting him up for a political version of waterboarding?

The paper has a reputation to keep and I am sure someone there also read you book and they won't make the CBS mistake of not countering the counter.

Just like in the Roger Clemens case, there are now picture of him at the party he denied being at. I suspect the same thing will happen to McCain in this instance.

Reposting from previous thread regarding answer to NAFTA issue:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/02/friday-night-links.html#comment-40764

McCain defends lobbyist ties
Republican candidate says lobbyists who advise him are honorable

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23295787/

Bill Keller said it is the fault of the readers for not getting the point of the story.

Isn't that the job of the edior.

McCain’s ‘Free Ride’
A critic on the senator's cozy ties to the press corps.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/114548

Hey Craig:

I love the guys over at Plays 2 Run - they explained what McCain did by focusing more on the sex scandal part of it makes the money scandal part fade into the background because we all love sex scandals the most. They said this is a real tactic called a "disco" - distracting with something trivial that is related to draw attention away from the significant issue. Used in parliament I think.

I'll see if I can find any audio on this and post the link - supposedly Alexander Hamilton did something very similar when he was Secretary of the Treasury and was accused of embezzling money.

Right now on c-span

Tavis Smiley's black conference state of the black
union--discussing the animus occuring among
blacks for supporting Hillary/Obama. Various black
members are expressing their concerns.

Right now on c-span

Tavis Smiley's black conference state of the black
union--discussing the animus occuring among
blacks for supporting Hillary/Obama. Various black
members are expressing their concerns.

GOP Games a November Victory

"Thanks to the Democratic party’s lame, divisive, disorganized, and inconsistent primary systems in 50 states, the Republicans have rich opportunities to help determine the candidate they most want to face in the general election: Barack Obama. You’ll note that they’re using GOPers’ hatred of the Clintons to motivate switch-over voting, but — please THINK about it, everyone. If the GOP feared Barack Obama in the general election, they’d urge everyone to vote for Hillary Clinton. They’re using Clinton hatred to motivate their sheep. But they know Obama will be easier to defeat than Clinton.

Here’s what’s going on in Texas:

Attention All Texas Republicans and Independents!!

On March 4th, Texas Republicans and Independents will have an opportunity to end Hillary Clinton’s (and Bill’s) presidential ambitions once and for all!

Since Texas has on open primary, Republicans and Independents should sign in at their polling place and request a Democratic ballot. They should then vote for Barack Obama.

Voting Democratic this one time will have NO effect on your ability to vote in the next Republican primary or obviously on your vote in November. "

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/

McCain's reputation is nowhere near out of the woods yet. The NY Times made the mistake of muddying their own waters by even mentioning a sexual angle to his lobbyist issues, creating their own red herring. But the Washington Post has this article that is pretty clear about McCain overstepping bounds with his influence peddling.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202634.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008022203188

well he is out of the woods with the SF Chronicle

Editorial
Follow the innuendo

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Sen. John McCain has a legitimate gripe. A New York Times story that highlighted his relationship with lobbyist Vicki Iseman was unfair. It implied more than it delivered.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/23/MNDJV6U0J.DTL&tsp=1

...and here's McCain and his newly-indicted little friend Rick Renzi, who accompanied him to Baghdad last year:

from The Nation

More recently, Renzi visited Iraq with McCain in the spring of 2007--the same trip where McCain, under the protection of 100 American soldiers, three Blackhawk helicopters, and two Apache gunships, famously declared that it was safe to "walk freely" through a Baghdad marketplace. "He's giving it to 'em straight," Renzi said after.

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=289083

The democratic party is a mess - which is why I'm switching to Indie

Between open primaries being stupid enough to disenfranchise 2 key states from the beginning, superdelegates, all of it - they're a mess. The democratic party does not think logically or strategically - they are a party of pure emotion - and that's been kicking the democrats butts for over 30 years now.

I would encourage anyone who has doubts about democratics or republicans or two party system to register indie. It is clear that we need to end a 2 party system - and it can start out as a whisper and swell to a chorus - indiependance is the change we seek

We are our only Hope

Yes We Can

:-D

C-Span
....yikes - Mayor of NOLA.....maybe BO did not want to be associated with that.

More from E-mail to send to Texas Republicans:

"After you vote during early voting or on March 4th, you ARE NOT done! Report back to your regular polling place at 7PM on March 4th to sign the Barack Obama list for caucus delegates. In a little known Texas voting quirk, 67 delegates to the Democratic convention will be seated because of these caucuses. This is a full one-third of the total number of Texas delegates. For Hillary to lose, she has to lose the primary votes AND the caucus votes.

I urge you to vote against Hillary Clinton by voting for Barack Obama. Please forward this e-mail to all your Texas Republican and Independent friends so that we can help ensure the Clinton's defeat on March 4th!!!"

http://republicansforobama.org/?q=node/359

Florida and Michigan disenfranchised themselves, the party didn't.

gordo - That's why I suspected some Reps were voting for Obama in primaries all along.

Coreen -- I always watch Tavis's State of the Black Union conference. He assembles an awesome panel. I know he really pressed Hillary to appear, even though Barack refused. I think it may end up with her getting booed and that will be the press coverage....no one asking why Barack refused to show up. On the other hand, givenTavis's very public request of her, I don't know how she could refuse.

Barack has the black vote sewn up, his time is better spent elsewhere. Don't have to be a rocket scientist to get that one.

"GOP Games a November Victory"

They have been doing this from the beginning of the primary season in every state that allows same day registration or open voting. The Republicans has a really bad set of candidates and they had to have someone they thought they could beat. That meant the new kid on the block: Obama

Unfortuantely, Obama has run a masterful campaign, so that is who is likely to be the Dem nominee. Shrug

And yet a lot of criticism of Republicans who did not show up for the debate

I guess when you brand every other candidate a racist
it isn't important to show up

OK - Brian - I told myself days ago that I wouldn't read your stuff or respond to you - but I'm going to break my rule just this once in order to speak to anyone that thinks you are right at least in the case of FL (a very key state for you democrats in November).

The REPUBLICAN run legislature and REPUBLICAN governor changed the primary in FL AND the democrats were STUPID enough to punish the FL democrats for IT. The democratic party has SHOT themselves in the foot. Again - emotional bull shit thinking - not rational, not logical - just a dumb ass power play on the part of Dr. Dean.

I stand by my argument that we need to end the 2 party system. More and more indies are getting elected to office - it can start out at the local level and move up from there. the Internet is turning out, obviously, to be a great place for raising money.

We need to end the mind set that got us into this two party system in the first place.

Brian,

Michigan yes. They knew the rules and violated them. The Florida Dems were pretty much at the mercy of the State and Republicans. They didn't have the money to run a separate election on an acceptable date.

All candidates were on the ballot. While it is fuzzy who did what in the advertising, fund raising, local action department, in one way or another they all campaigned.

Florida without a doubt should be counted.

For Michigan, the party should try to reach some kind of division of the delegates that is acceptable to the candidates.

If the national party couldn't control the state parties why should the voters be penalized?

"Barack has the black vote sewn up, his time is better spent elsewhere"

Yes they came out in droves to support him. Now he can flip them off without a penalty.

I hardly think skipping one event could be considered "flipping them off", but in the desperate-speak of the clinton campaign I can understand you trying to push that line.

Jamie don't let the vote regarding when the Florida Primary would take place get in your way, pesky facts. Even with Florida counted in the mix Hillary still loses, I don't know why you Clintonista keep coming back to this, it doesn't get you over the goal post.

I thought this thread was about John McCain.

As has been pointed out many times, it would be nice if Florida is in play. If it doesn't matter, then why did Obama change his mind and continue to oppose seating the delegation. I guess he knows he couldn't carry Florida anyway.

surprise of surprises, USA Today actually has a pretty poll tracker on their web site.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm?loc=interstitialskip

John McCain will be here on Monday. He is going to do a small Town Hall meeting...Any questions you'd like me to ask him?

since you guys want to talk about Florida, here's your McCain tie-in to that -- just another reason Obama best not bother with Florida in the general: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2008/02/mccain-and-obam.html

..."in the desperate-speak of the clinton campaign I can understand you trying to push that line"

More warm fuzzies from Brian.. Time to smoke another bowl bro.

And you might think it doesn't matter but Floridians have a long memory and come November, if their delegates are not seated, many will sit it out on the dem and indy-dem side allowing the state's electoral votes to succumb to the right-wing republicans. So by Barack "winning", Barack may very well "lose" in the general. There is an old proverb that says "be careful what you wish for, you might just get it."

Colleen talk about whom? McBush? Been there, done that for 8 years... :-) But seriously, what is there to say? he's a fraud and a liar...

John McCain will be here on Monday. He is going to do a small Town Hall meeting...Any questions you'd like me to ask him?

Posted by: unlikely_burrito | February 23, 2008 11:42 AM

Yes, has he considered botox?

lol

That's a loaded question, what if he is already Botoxed to the max !

or maybe Cindy doesn't share

Brian,

This isn't a matter as to whether Clinton gets the nomination or not. She will or she won't. This is about Obama. You may not watch the Tavis Smiley event annually. Most of the time I do. It is a big deal just as the convention for the NAACP is a big deal. He has virtually every major AA personality on the panels. It is a truly inspiring event.

One more example of him not being courteous to others except as it makes him look good and something that is becoming more and more of a pattern of his actions.

He doesn't want to have too many people or states sitting on their hands come November.

i am playing with the electoral map this weekend for a future item -- anyone want to play along? Here's my question: What state(s) can Obama win that Dems have been losing? This is a serious question and would prefer this not to be a launching pad for another food fight.

Let's assume that wins everything Gore and Kerry won. That means that among the big-state options he would need Ohio or Florida. Missouri, maybe, but not quite enough. Dems had hoped to make up some difference with new pickups in the Southwest, but that's McCain's base, might be tough.

So, gviven my doubts that Obama can win Florida, my opening theory is that Ohio is the make-or-break for an Obama general election strategy. Not an unusual situtation for Democrats, but seems to be especially true in his case.

okay, ET, I surrender, but please take a look at the link Craig gave us, about McCain and Obama and Cuba-relations. What will we do with Cuba? Here's a cartoon - what can we address with Cuba?

http://news.yahoo.com/comics/uclickcomics/20080220/cx_bs_uc/bs20080220

I sorta want the Cubano blockade to be over with. As I stated on another forum recently (yesterday I think), we need an island resort off the coast of Florida that features great cigars, rum, gambling and prostitution. Just like the good old days. Plus, they be some dynamite photo opportunities there Tambien.

yo soy Horsedooty

I thought this thread was about John McCain.

Posted by: colleen | February 23, 2008 11:35 AM

It's much easier for a mob to justify jumping on a young black man who we suspect is shady, instead of the old battered white war hero that we KNOW is shady...

The old guy has taken enough of a beating and the young guy hasn't...

Before anyone thinks I am race baiting, I am being Sarcastic...though I am sure that GORDO'S fantasy Taylor Marsh will plagiarize my idea and use it soon...

Patsi--Lets hope that Hillary is greeted respectfully, since as you state the media will headline that she is booed--which also then casts the audience in a negative light as well.

Tavis Smiley stated that he has received lots of negative comments because he has mentioned that
Obama declined his invitation.

Stephanie Tubbs Jones has so far held her ground
well--standing tall for her continued support of Hillary
in light of being pressured to do otherwise.

Hi, Bear!

Craig, I was reading something or other this AM about Pennsylvania and how the gap is closing between the Dem candidates, which was 20% in Clinton's favor and is now maybe closer to 10%. Let me see if I can find it, even though I guess PA doesn't matter. It scares me that Ohio does, since they stole the election for Bush in "00 with Tom Ridge's red alert and many other anomalies. As an aside, Gene Robinson called PA "Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle" Funny but sad my formerly Democratic State has come to that.

by the way, here's a decent interactive map for playing with electoral strategies: http://www.270towin.com/

Craig your question if phrased wrong IMO, I think your question should be what states can McCain hold on to. McCain will take the following states,

Miss.
Ala
GA
SC (could be close, but Obama could take it)
NC
(FL and NH I'm not sure about)

Obama will take the rest. Over all I don't see McCain pulling more than 40% in popular vote nation wide. Dispite the constant drone of doom and gloom coming from some quarters Obama has far more crossover appeal than McCain does.

Got a robo call "Obama for America," re:early voting, from the Mayor of Cleveland, offering me a ride to the polls....too bad I already voted ....it would have been interesting to see how that all works.

Craig I love that map. I've turned all the States blue. Now I'll get serious with it.

the gop thru applied ugliness could increase McCain's vote substantially.......

Craig I think a far more interesting question is how broad will Obama's coat tails be and what will the make up of the next congress be!

Craig,

I think Missouri will be a problem. Though the Evangelical crowd has lost some of their influence in the state, they can still have a major effect on the election in so far as activism and turn out. When you add in the racial issue (It may be ancient history but John Brown's body is still mouldering), it will probably go to McCain unless he totally ticks off the far right.

Both Dem candidates are courting Bill Richardson like mad. NM went to Bush 50/49 % Those 5 electoral votes could make a difference in a real squeaker. I think there are some states such as NM could tip to the Democrats simply because Bush has so totally messed things up simply because of the Independents.

No one thinks SC will be blue

hell.....SC electorate is seeing Lindsay Graham as a danged liberal these days...........

geez brian, you're not even giving mccain his home state. okay then, the election is over in your mind. but i am trying to figure out what Obama needs in case McCain holds GOP base states.

but they'll close ranks around Lindsay and his man Johnny Mc against the barbarians at the gate......no doubt of that........Rush will see that the job is done.......

KC I've stated my opinion, I have no interest in debating it with you. Couldn't your time be spent doing better things, like spreading lies and smears.

thanks for playing colleen. on the pull down menu of that map it displays the actual vote from past campaigns. http://www.270towin.com/

Bear,

"old battered white war hero that we KNOW is shady"

Not starting the war all over again, but how do you KNOW. What proof of any kind do you have that Hillary Clinton is in any way corrupt. She has been examined seven ways from Sunday through two major state elections garnering the votes of left, right, and center. What can you point to other than right wing rumors that indicates sleezy associations or acts?

One of my pet peeves that actually keeps me from warming to Obama is the fact that his supporters constantly use Republican talking points to attack Hillary Clinton, even though those same supporters defended Bill Clinton tooth and nail when he was attacked by the right wing.

I looked at 2004 and man that's an ugly map......

"Craig I think a far more interesting question is how broad will Obama's coat tails be and what will the make up of the next congress be! -- Posted by: Brian In NYC"

interesting how Brian is so eager to change the subject

Craig I don't see your point, McCain won't hold the "GOP base states" Even if I concede AZ to you everything points to a landslide in the Dems favor. Just wait till we start seeing those news clips of George and John campaigning together!

Atta Boy George Bush!

Bear -- In response to your comment (sarcastic or not) I despise John McCain and wouldn't vote for him on a bet. But I do think Barack should have attended this whether as Brian says,he has the black vote or not.

Aside from that, I like your "coyote" comment from a couple of threads ago..good term and I may use it, credited of course....:)

Coreen

Stephanie Tubbs Jones is a marvel. Talk about holding your place in space. Can't do much better than beautiful, brilliant and loyal.

"I looked at 2004 and man that's an ugly map......Posted by: sturgeone"

ha, sturg, not so ugly, really -- every Democrat should memorize that map -- not for the gloom and doom, but for seeing just how little it might take to swing it the other way

Haha, Craig, spin away! Your dislike of Obama is clouding your judgment in my humble opinion.

" McCain won't hold the "GOP base states" -- posted by Brian in NYC"

-- okay, brian, you believe, that's fine. but i assume Obama strategists will be a bit more thoughtful.

Craig I'm certain Axlerod and the rest of Obama staff will demonstrate the same mastery of the game in the general campaign as they have in the primary battle.

(killing you isn't it?)

I think the west is where the Democrats will pick up states. New Mexico was so close last time. I think the Dems get Ohio and Pa also

John McCain and the Clinton Rules

"If any part of an alleged scandal turns out to be true, the media behaves as though the entire story is true.

For the past 10 years, the news media have portrayed Clinton as having acknowledged that Flowers' story was true. He did nothing of the kind -- and Flowers is just about the least credible accuser you could imagine, having lied about the place her supposed affair with Clinton began, about her education, about her career as an entertainer, about having been kidnapped, and about having a twin sister.

Yet because Clinton acknowledged there to be a sliver of truth to Flowers' wild claims, the news media pretended her entire story was true."

http://mediamatters.org/items/200802220015?f=h_top

Haha, Brian, spin away! Your worship of Obama is clouding your judgment in my humble opinion.

Posted by:mirror imageI

Jamie, I don't understand your 12:19 comment to Bear. He didn't say anything about Hillary. He was talking about McCain and Obama, I think. Unless I missed some discussion from a prior thread or something. Will you please explain? Thanks

okay back to the map

oh, and here's a story from Media Matters about how MSM tends to give Reps a pass and skewer Dems forever and a day

http://mediamatters.org/items/200802220015?f=h_top

oops GORDO you beat me to the Media Matters story

okay - back to that cute map

Jamie...

Can't speak for Bear, but I think the "old battered white war hero" he spoke of was McCain, not Clinton.

I am also counting on Claire McCaskill to turn Mo blue

Gore or Kerry both lost FL & OH, and without a serious 3rd party player , BO should have NM, IA, CO, NH, MO in play.
Enuf to win.

yep, KGC, think Ohio or PA would be kller apps for Dems in the Fall. But Dems won PA in 2000 and 2004, so i am assuming it goes blue. Which gets me back to Ohio as the one that must be flipped. If Obama can win the primary there on March 4 (and the Wisconsin vote suggests he could) that would be a huge boost for November.

HW / Colleen You are right I was seeing Clinton instead of McCain. :-)

Well, I played with the map...and the DEMS won!!! YEA!!!

I think I'm too prejudiced in the Dems favor at this point to think objectively about it...so I'll just cogitate on all your opinions...you little politicos, you....

rezdog, NM is a question with McCain in the mix. Neighboring state, popular with Hispanics for his immigration work

It's been a difficult couple of weeks on the list, Jamie.Hard not to see fights even where none exist. I say you get a pass this time!

jamie,

I agree with colleen, Bears comments were directed at McCain not HRC. Go back and re-read the OP and you will agree with us.

yo soy Horsedooty!

done with my map. Dems win. YAY!

just kidding

I think Ohio is pretty blue these days given the 2006 and 2007 votes. Plus without Ken Blackwell to suppress the Democratic vote. Plus they have already exhausted their opportunities for some hate legislation to turn out the fundies.

I came up with a map that is 302/236 ... well it made me happy. :-)

WA OR CA NV CO NM in the West then a rust belt/east coast combo of

MN WI IL IN OH MI PA DC MD DE NJ NY CT MA RI VT NH ME

ohio primary looms large......

just want you all to know I'm not plagiarizing even though I posted a link the same as GORDO's right after him and then said the same thing as harborwoman one minute later. I'm just slow...

Bush carried (Kerry) NM, IA.NH all but just 1% with Nadar getting 1%.and CO by 2 .Giving time BO is gaining Hispanic vote. Mccain will piss them off more just to garner Con help.

Ohio went back to paper ballots.....and steel boxes....who knows where those boxes will end up....it seemed so antiquated.

Okay, Craig...we've given the White House to the Dems. Find us another map so we can give them Congress, as well. We'll have this country fixed and governed to our liking in no time!

About my selections PA and CO are the two states that make me nervous.

question would be will barack or hillary/bill pitch in after the nominee is decided......what will be the degree of campaigning by the loser for the nominee........

Craig,
Thanks for the map link. I have to run out now but can't wait to get back to play with it. For anyone wondering, I see no way BO gets Iowa in the GE unless something serious happens to McCain's campaign.

Hillary should have used the term "Cut and Paste" instead of Xerox.....who was the senior citizen that wrote that line for her?

If all the Democrats have to do is flip Ohio and hold on to every other Kerry state, I don't see a problem.

I think all those NE liberals will turn out in droves and that part of the country will be very blue.
Look at NH Jean Shaheen now has a commanding lead over Sununu (despite her bad husband)

here's a potential winning scenario for Dems WITHOUT OH, PA or FL (exactly 270):

Washington
Oregon
California
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Massachusetts
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Virginia

Slow, Colleen? NAY! I think you can read both the past and the future! Special abilities, doncha' know!?!

"Hillary should have used the term "Cut and Paste" instead of Xerox.....who was the senior citizen that wrote that line for her? -- Posted by: unlikely_burrito"

ha, why not take it on back and say "change you can mimeograph"

Unl Burrito......that is exactly right.......cut and paste.....I bet someone is kicking themselves somewhere......if not being kicked by someone......

mimeograph.....i can still smell those pages......

I was more popular due to the fumes

That's it Craig but I agree with KGC, Ohio will be blue.

"Find us another map so we can give them Congress, as well. -- Posted by: harborwoman"

here ya go, CQ's got ya covered for a congressional map: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28

Ah, the smell of mimeograph 'ink'. What a delicious high that used to be! And...in case any of you are wondering what happened to me, well...the mimeograph ink, plus chasing the fog machine down the road as a kid in MS just because it smelled so good!

Never underestimate Ohio...we have bee hurting ourselves for years with bad choices...

Ohio rate #5 for the highest number of troops killed.....the way foreign policy and military is played out will be very important.

On the other hand 90,000 homes are in foreclosure in Ohio.

I like Craig's list but still add Ohio and Pa

I was a Kerry Traveler to Ohio in 2004 and I think he won it then.

Oooh, now that's a more complicated set of maps...but they'll be fun to play with, too. What's are the magic numbers for giving either party a clear majority in both houses? 60 in the Senate, right? And how many in the House?

I don't think the gen election is going to be as close as some people think...Most pundits I saw (Mark Sheilds, among others) predicted Wisconson to be a very close race. Well, it wasn't. The margin of victory for the winner in TX and OH is going to be very telling

for what little polls can tell us right now, here is a map reflecting current polls:

(with leaners)
Obama 251
McCain 189
Swing States: 98

http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_obama/

Kerry lost Ohio in GE 2004

Maybe Kerry lost OH in 04...

"What's are the magic numbers for giving either party a clear majority in both houses? 60 in the Senate, right? And how many in the House? Posted by: harborwoman"

-- 218 in the House and technically 51 in the Senate but 60 best for flibuster-proof majority

Kerry lost Ohio in GE 2004

Posted by: unlikely_burrito | February 23, 2008 1:05 PM

I meant Kerry won Ohio except for the interference by Ken Blackwell

Craig,
In answer to your question, here's my sense for states in my neighborhood that could pull for Obama, ranked in order that I think are possible:

CO
MT
NM
UT
OK
KS
NE

I have Obama getting 275 with the following states which I think is realistic:

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
Missouri
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Maryland
D.C
Delaware
New York
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Vermont

I am unsure which way New Hampshire will swing because there is real dislike for Sununu who is up for reelection. I couldn't give Maine to either candidate because I don't know which way voters will break after making their vote for Senator...

Thanks for those numbers, Craig. I'm definitely going for 60 in the Senate...want that filibuster-proof majority!

I'm giving PA, Ohio and Colo to the Dems. Fla to the Reps. I also think LA will break blue this year because they were so neglected during Katrina.

Right now I've got Dems - 346; Reps, 192 but still playing

so here's the thing, adjusting my earlier list showing how dems win without OH, PA, or FL -- http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/02/mccain-wins-a-round.html#comment-40868

McCain gets Dems back to 251 (Kerry's 2004 number) if he can hold his neighboring states -- New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada

then Dems need OH, PA or FL (any one of the three) to win

oooh - I gave NM, CO, and NV to Dems. Gotta re-think and research.

Craig, this is totally fun. I feel so powerful!

Was the 2004 Election Stolen?
by ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.

"Republicans prevented more than 350,000 voters in Ohio from casting ballots or having their votes counted -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House. "

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen

yes, GORDO, it was

Harbor: the fog machine in MS: was that insect repellant?

Predicting a blow out makes me very skittish simply because past Presidential Elections have been so close, but the approval ratings for Bush are so low that when you add high gas prices, skyrocketing food prices, house forclosures and vehicle reposessions that put a red flag on the economy, we could well see a massive turnover in Congress and a shoo in for the Presidency.

If the book Book Generations is right we are in for a huge economic down turn or a massive state of war at some point in the next ten years.

Is John McCain a Liar?

By Robert Parry
February 23, 2008

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2008/022308.html

Craig,
I forgot to include NV.

One of the characteristics of the Rocky Mountain west is that people tend to be fiercely independent, regardless of party affiliation. Not too keen on big government (unless they're leasing land from the BLM or Forest Service).

There's a lot people like, personally, about McCain. But his foreign policy, particularly Iraq, doesn't sit well. And his domestic policy seems to be MIA.

I think a lot depends on who each candidate picks for veep.

dnd

California has spilled over into NV, AZ, NM.

Nevada gets most of the liberals. Arizona the conservatives and New Mexico getting the moderates and Hispanic sreturning home after being in California since the 1940s.

Hey Craig,

Anyway to superimpose which of these state have Senate races on this map? I think it would be fascinating to see how which races will be decided by front line coat tails...

Also, can someone add some sound to the state...like "Yes We Can" when the state goes blue

or some sound bite for McCain?

I just came up with the perfect line for Obama to use in a debate with McCain, when the latter starts ridiculing his "Yes We Can" mentality...

I wonder who I should send it to?

In case you missed the announcement on CNN, if you happen to have a brilliant child approaching college age, Stanford just eliminated tuition for families under $100,000 and residency for under $60,000

That is a savings of about $200,000.

Jamie,
UT gets a lot of spillover from California too. Some's liberal, some's ain't. That's the score.

Jamie

It's a war for good students with no money

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/21/BU4OV5U10.DTL&hw=Stanford&sn=007&sc=463

I think Harvard started it

Jamie,

Though I would vote Republican before I ever attended that bottom feeding school, why couldn't all these schools do this when I was college age so I didn't have to have a $40K noose of loans around my neck?

2004 SWING VOTES -- here is a starting place for Dems -- the states Bush won by less than 5 percentage points. Pick up 19 electoral votes in any combination of these (plus everything Kerry won) and they've got the magic 270 to win:

Bush Narrow WIns (2004)
IA (7) 49.90%-49.23% (+0.67 difference)
NM (5) 49.84%-49.05% (+0.79)
OH (20) 50.81%- 48.71% (+2.1)
NV (5) 50.47%-47.88% (+2.59)
CO (9 electoral votes) 51.69%-47.02% (+4.67)

And for McCain strategists seeking pickups, here are states Kerry won by less than 5pts:

Kerry Narrow WIns (2004)
WI (10 electoral votes) 49.70%-49.32% (+0.38 difference)
NH (4) 50.24%-48.87% (+1.37)
PA (21) 50.92%-48.42% (+2.5)
MI (17) 51.23%-47.81% (+3.42)
MN (9) 51.09%-47.61% (+3.48)
OR (7) 47.19% 51.35% (+4.16)

dnd

SLC and the beautiful mountain areas above it are getting more liberal but it is the sandwich filling between the conservative areas that border ID and AZ

Change You Can't Believe In
By Gabor Steingart (DER SPIEGEL)

"But there is no room for thoughtfulness in the turbulent world of Obamania. Hillary Clinton, his rival in the fight for the Democratic nomination, suffers from the same problems as traditional companies in the automotive and engineering industries did when confronted with the hype of the New Economy. She is out of touch with his supporters. She uses language to explain, while Obama uses rhetoric to intoxicate. She tells voters what she is bringing to the table. He tells them what they can become. If Clinton is a solid stock, Obama is an option. If she's a secure investment, he is speculation."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,536232,00.html

"why couldn't all these schools do this when I was college age so I didn't have to have a $40K noose of loans around my neck?"

I know, Bear. It's a travesty. My son owes a small fortune in student loans. My daughter just got her's paid off and she's 39.

Report from Canton Ohio

1. Remember when i mentioned Mayor of Canton was hosting session for Bill Clinton but not publicly endorsing Hillary ? Last Sunday when Bill was here the Mayor announced at the rally he was endorsing Hillary. While he also spoke postiive about Obama paper said he said experience factor was reason. Also paper said that he recieved calls directly from Hillary and from gov. strickland about hillary. Governor was at rally.

2 Both Obama and Clinton have opened local headquarters in Stark County. there have been several articles about activiities at these headquarters.

3 have recieved at least 3 calls from obama callers in last week. all of my machine (thank god for machine)

4 Actress Alfre Woodard came to Canton for Obama. There have also been others (cannot remember) prominent names in politics or entertainment that have appeared for both. look for more this week

5 FYI one Republican thing: have seen some Huckabee signs that were put up recently since they are in areas i go by fairly often. have not heard anything in the news but guess someone here thinks he must still have a chance

from my brother Cheeze it.

Craig,

Two questions as I begin to create combinations...

1. Looking at Kerry's win in NH, that was a neighbor state for him. If you give Obama OH and McCain NM, does that radically change the math?

2. How many votes need to move on avg. in these states to change these existing results?

I forgot how razor thin the vote was in the 2004 election...amazing.

I would like to know why each tv station has their own numbers for delegates for each candidate. Cnn has one and Fox has another. How can this be?
Obama is starting to crumble more when he tried to explain things. He is so naive and uneducated to world issues.
Go Hillary, In Ohio!!

KatyCracker - I'm fascinated by what you wrote but what is even more intriguing is that you have a brother Cheeze it

"Actress Alfre Woodard came to Canton for Obama. "

I love her....good to see her getting involved, even if it's not for my candidate.

I keep hearing hints that Keller has many sources and indisputable evidence that he is ready to unleash on McCain.
It's not over with this lobbyist-favors scandal.

KGC,

While Obama, Clinton and Huckabee and Paul have all campaigned close to my house, I have yet to hear one person mention McCain.

When I network with local realtors and builders, I have yet to meet one person supporting McCain.

I still only see Ron Paul billboards or yard signs in Fort Worth. I have started to see bumper stickers for Obama or Clinton. There are a lot of Edwards stickers around though.

If you just drove the Metroplex, you would think the front runner was Ron Paul of the Rep. side and that he was running unopposed.

Colleen

All in the family.

Canton has it's first Democratic mayor in quite some time. And if you are looking for a congressional seat that will flip, I think Ohio 16 is a good one.

The incumbent is retiring and there is a good Democratic candidate. It would be the first switch in over 50 years.

Carol,

Each state has weird formulas that they use to award delegates. It can come down to half votes in some precincts.

In states with caucuses, there are only numbers so far for the first tier. These could change between now and their state conventions.

Texas is incredible since it awards via a primary and a caucus with even more arcane math

Craig has said that the AP seems to have the most accurate, but we are not likely to get a final count until the national convention unless one of the candidates drops out.

BEAR, you can play with the interactive map we've been using on comparing those states: http://www.270towin.com/

to your second question, here are the raw vote leads for Bush and Kerry narrow wins in '04:

Bushs Narrow Wins
Iowa +10,059
New Mexico +5,988
Ohio +118,601
Nevada +21,500
Colorado +99,523

Kerry Narrow Wins
Wisconsin +11,384
New Hampshire +9,274
Pennsylvania +144,248
Michigan +165,437
Minnesota +98,319

Bear said
"When I network with local realtors and builders, I have yet to meet one person supporting McCain"

It is kind of amazing. Although they have stopped it for now, the most conservative Republicans I know hate McCain. They recognize he is the most electable (and oddly they seem to hate him more for that)

I just saw a clip showing Hillary really made over a flyer that was handed to her. What was in that flyer that made her lose it.

Yes, indeed. Shame on you Obama. To paraphrase Edward G. Robinson...Where's your golden boy, now?

The central early voting location across the street was hopping this morning.

I was just reading some of the comments, Craig I am disappointed. You have Obama winning already. There is ONLY 69 delegates apart. She will WIN Ohio and Win or tie in TX and she will win PA. She will get the nomination. Canton, Ohio's major just switched from Obama to Hillary. But you never hear about that on the TV.
My understanding is he is putting out some literature that is completely inaccurate about Hillary.. Now who is playing dirty politics? His feet will start to crumb, they already have. I was out compaigning this afternoon and Obama people were at WalMart Inappropriately passing out literature and will told to leave and did not.

Is there a way on the net we can see that literature

Wow! This exhibition on the Black experience in America (America I Am) that will be traveling the nation for the next five years sounds wonderful. Its not on the Arts and Exhibitions web site yet, but you might want to keep and eye out for it.

http://www.artsandexhibitions.com/

and at The Smithsonian http://www.si.edu/

Apparently over 18,000 square feet of materials in all fields will be on display at the major museums

vadaryl, I will try to find it. It had to do with, I believe fair trade? I will look.
Because she was so upset because Ohio has been so affected by the jobs going overseas.
I know she was holding up to the people the literature when she spoke in Huber Hts.

If this literature is not true it will make for a fun debate on Tuesday not a lovefest.

well, here is my take-away from this afternoon's exercise (and now i'm going to go do something, ANYTHING, less nerdy for a while, like go see Judy Gold perform at the local Jewish Community Center):

Again, for dissussion purposes assume Dems and Repubs hold everything else as they did in 2004 (arguable, i know) and take the focus to the 10 most narrow margins last time . . .

Obama starts the race in good shape to hold Kerry's narrow wins: WI, NH, PA, MI, MN

Among Bush's narrow wins, McCain's geographic advantage helps him in NM, NV, CO -- Which would require a Dem pickup of Ohio's 20 electoral votes for the extra 19 they need from 2004 (IA wouldn 't be enough)

OHIO OHIO OHIO

If you aren't tuned to it, the afternoon panel for "The State of Black Union" on C-SPAN is something else. It should be very, very political.

Graham Cracker--I checked this morning's Ohio newspapers like the one in Lima and the Toledo Blade. Hillary has good press.

For those who like newspapers, here's the site to look at them:
http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/default.asp?page=1

So what's Sherrod Brown up to? Is he in hiding?

"Craig I am disappointed. You have Obama winning already. -- posted by Carol"

carol, calm down, i spent the afternoon on a theoretical exercise looking at the electoral map assuming Obama as the nominee -- and my conclusion is that he needs to beat Clinton in Ohio on March 4 to make a clearly convincing case that he's got what it takes to win in November

maybe next we compare/contrast Clinton and Obama performance against McCain on the electoral map -- but for now my brain hurts

KGC,

These business people were for the most part, Conservative and Baptist and were heavily in the Romney camp.

I think I heard Michael Crowley mention that the schedule is another thing that has hurt the Clinton campaign in that the states they really need are coming too late for them...you could make the same argument for Romney. If Texas came closer to Super Tuesday, I think he would have scored a big win here.

In the general I believe Ohio and Florida will again plan an important part in who wins. GWB took Ohio mainly due to the over-the-top fundamentalist Christians, IMO. They campaigned in churches even though they said they didn’t thinking he was the second coming of Christ. I’ve talked with many in this sector who were Democrats and voted for GWB. Needless to say I’ve reminded them of their mistake. The independents and many Republicans are now voting for Obama. The ones I know are not doing so just to throw the primaries for Obama. They are Republicans who say they will not vote for McCain. They don’t believe in his policies.

As for McCain and Obama in Florida, I would think at least SE Florida would be in favor of some of Obama’s talking points, namely visitation privileges between SE Florida with families in Cuba. If someone could only convince (which actually takes talking in lieu of threats) whoever becomes the next leader in Cuba that travelers from all over the world are vacationing in just about every piece of land surrounding them in the Caribbean and they are losing that revenue. What a boom it could be for their country. It would take a lot of money and work but I bet Donald Trump would be one of the first to take a stab at it since he is just a few miles from there in Ft. Lauderdale re-building their run down areas with huge, expensive high rises and condo/hotel complexes.

This may be naive, but just my two cents worth.

vadaryl
I found it
Shame on you, Barack Obama. It is time you ran a campaign consistent with your messages in public - that's what I expect from you," Clinton said angrily, waving the mailings in the air.
"I am fighting to change NAFTA," she insisted. "Neither of us were in the Senate when NAFTA passed. Neither voted one way or the other."

Clinton said Newsday had corrected the record about her views on the agreement. Indeed, the paper published a blog item earlier this month saying Obama's use of the word "boon" was unfair.

I cannot find the original just what was in the paper

Bear

Do you think they will vote for McCain. I have heard a few Republicans say they will stay home. These are far right people who think Schwarzenegger should be recalled. They think he has become a Democrat and that's what they think will happen with McCain.

"So what's Sherrod Brown up to? Is he in hiding?"

Sherrod Brown has not endorsed anyone yet, but I believe he might be leaning toward Obama. Central Ohio is much different than NE and SW Ohio. Mike Coleman is a very, very popular black mayor here who I believe is serving his third term. He has endorsed Obama.

I have the two flyers right in front of me. They pretty much say what he has said all along. The health care flyer says on the front "Hillary's health care plan forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can't afford it." Then on the inside he talks about her not allowing exemptions and garnishing people's wages, which she has said she is thinking about doing.

On the third page he explain his health care plan.

Sherrod Brown says he will not endorse
he is disappointed in both candidates.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0208/Ohio_Senator_wont_endorse_Clinton_or_Obama.html

The second flyer is about NAFTA. It says "A little more than a year ago, Hillary Clinton throught NAFTA was a "boon" to the economy. According to a Newsday issue rundown, "Clinton thinks NAFTA has been a boon to the economy." (New York Newsday, 9/11/06). Bad trade deals like NAFTA hit Ohio harder than most states. (I agree).

This may not be as a result of NAFTA but we have lost so many jobs overseas you don't know who you get for support when you call. We are trying to find someone to notify them about a death in the family. I call to get support this morning from Time Warner (my provider) and the person could not speak English. I believe she was in India.

I did love Hil'ry comparing Obama & his campaign tactics to Karl Rove & the same, old Republic dirty tricks.

Karolenna, So what happened to his single-payer system?

Craig don't you think we have to pull Michigan from the mix? What if Romney is the Vice-President candidate and all his pandering to the auto industry there?

here's a potential winning scenario for Dems WITHOUT OH, PA or FL (exactly 270):

Washington
Oregon
California
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Massachusetts
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Virginia

Posted by: Craig Crawford | February 23, 2008 12:52 PM

Don't know about the single-payer system. He says:
Offers health care coverage for all Americans similar to that of members of Congress, and subsidies to help those who cannot afford it.

Reduces insurance costs more than Hillary's plan, including capping insurance company profits in places where they have taken advantage of people.

Saves the typical faily up to $2,500 per year.

Additional infor on his website.

I received both flyers on Friday.

Obama is playing to emotions (it's the only card he has to play) & the Republicans are gonna use his emotional prostitution techniques against him if he's the nom.

The GOP wants Obama to win.

"The reason it hasn't been an issue so far is that we're still in the microcosm of the Democratic primary..."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/obama_attack_fodder

This blog is bloody addicting dammit! :-) I am wondering what Craig thinks about Michigan flipping to McCain IF Romney is VP candidate?

And if Sheila is around THIS SONG IS FOR HER:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqg_rgs-bqU

I personally believe an Obama/Jim Webb ticket would be unbeatable. Obama is already getting some independents and Republicans. Web was once a Republican and has a strong military history in his family. He could also attrack independents and Republicans.

more likey than Michigan for a GOP pickup of a Kerry state, EuroTom, would be Minnesota, where they're holding natl convention and McCain seems very fond Gov. Tim Pawlenty as a VP choice

The right is already loading their attack guns against Obama on the issue of patriotism.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/obama_attack_fodder

If anyone thinks the "new politics" is going to survive during the election campaign itself, forget it.

interesting look here at McCain threat to Dem hopes for southwest pickups: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/19/AR2008021902700.html

Karolenna

Cuba is already a major world tourist destination. It's only the U.S. that isn't enjoy those beaches. American yachts regularly drop in illegally.

Did you see Tylenol's description of one of the resorts?

Minnesota? really? I doubt that Craig... I mean Pawlenty isn't that popular, and Minnesota has voted faithfully democrat since 1976. I am interested in whether the candidacy of Al Franken will hurt Norm Coleman. Coleman used to be a Democrat but left the party over abortion as I recall. I don't think he would have won against Senator Wellstone, but I guess Mondale was just too "old democrat" to build a base in what was basically less than a week of campaigning.

Anyway, do you think McCain is seriously considered Pawlenty? He is good looking but is also not from the conservative wing...

Thoughts?

Oh and here's a song for anyone depressed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKeulwZ3sGE