For Obama, It's California or Bust

| | Comments (170)

Only California can save Barack Obama from a public relations defeat for tonight’s Super Tuesday showdown with Hillary Rodham Clinton. Still, in the all-important delegate hunt the night could be a draw.

So far, the Clintons have solidified key victories in and around their base states of Arkansas and New York.

Complementing her Arkansas win, Clinton picked up Tennessee and Oklahoma – and is leading in Missouri.

Surrounding New York, where Clinton handily won the state she represents in the Senate, nearby states falling to her column include New Jersey and Massachusetts. In this grouping only Connecticut seems to be slipping away from her.

Obama’s victories in Delaware, Georgia, Illinois and North Dakota -- and others soon to be declared -- reveal no promising regional trends or big-state appeal unless he can win California, the biggest delegate prize of the night. An Obama victory there would even the score against what has so far been a better night for Clinton

 

    Comments

  1. Craig...you are awake!

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:12 PM

  2. I am watching Huckabee right now...he does look like Kevin Spacey...Tweetie was right.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:13 PM

  3. NOTE TO MIKE HUCKABEE

    Please stop saying you will put the IRS out of business. We all know that is not true. You need to stop talking, while you're ahead.

    LV :)

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:14 PM

  4. To: USA
    From: International Monetary Fund
    re: declining dollar

    In order to help you pay off your massive debt and stabilize your currency, we have worked out a repayment plan...
    * The EU wants Florida
    * China wants the rest of eastern seaboard
    * Mexico wants California (back)
    * And the Saudis want all your blond virgins between the ages of 10 and 12. (Yes, that includes the boys).


    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:15 PM

  5. Craig...as I said in the earlier post before you "control-freaked" us all into a NEW THREAD...beware predicting Missouri results until maybe 80 percent are reported.
    KC and St. Louis always come in late...late, late.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:15 PM

  6. Craig...how long will it take to know about a Calif.? I still see that as part of the Opralamedy ( I shortened as it is getting tough to type) push?

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:17 PM

  7. "Only California can save Barack Obama from a public relations defeat "

    what an absurd statement Craig. Yet again your anti Obama bias shines through like light house on a cloudless night.

    KS just called for Obama.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:18 PM

  8. If Huckabee doesn't win, he's going to float down the Mississippi on a raft with Al Sharpton.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:18 PM

  9. rock shock jayhawk for Obama

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:19 PM

  10. Hey Blonde Wino...why are you asking Craig direct questions, as if he were human? Haven't you figured out by now that he is just a computer....like HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey?

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:19 PM

  11. yep, Lardass, how Missouri will tighten -- but don't Obama folks did not expect to be this far behind before KC and STL come in

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:20 PM

  12. LOL @ nash

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:20 PM

  13. It's pronounced "Cah-lee-FORN-ya"
    -Arnold

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:20 PM

  14. Kansas...how many registered dems are there in Kansas...anyone have that info?

    Looks like about 5000 registered dems from the vote.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:20 PM

  15. Blond

    California closes in 45 minutes. It could well take most of the night to predict simply because all the machines had to be switched to paper ballot, and counting 10 million pieces of paper takes a while.

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 10:20 PM

  16. nash

    That works for me...

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:22 PM

  17. Yeah Craig,

    You are working tonight...lol!

    I am noticing that MA is now 56-41 HRC...the margin continues to narrow. Are there similar trends in other states going either way right now?

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:22 PM

  18. "Kansas seems big for Obama..Governor was a big help I think."

    No kidding. That's my home state. A lot of people I know say it was a clusterf&&k. Completely controlled by the party.

    These caucuses are very strange, and open of a lot of party thuggery.

    I do, however, think California will be very close or go to Obama.

    Posted by: Patsi | February 5, 2008 10:23 PM


  19. I heard Joe Scarborough make a comment earlier stating that Hillary would have trouble winning Arkansas in the fall. I am assuming he meant if Huckabee is on the GOP ticket.

    I don't think that is the case. Huckabee was such a "good" governor that the state became heavily democratic again after his departure.

    Huckabee rode the backlash from the blowjob into office. It was a temporary blip. He is made fun of quite often in ARK.
    There are far more Dems in ARK than REPUGS!

    Posted by: truebeliever Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:23 PM

  20. Okay Craig. But tell that to Al Gore, who thought he had Missouri in the bag back in 200 until...well, until...he wasn't president-elect anymore.
    I remember distinctly...because I was profoundly drunk at the time the outcome was reversed.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:23 PM

  21. Brain in NYC...now you see why I love Craig.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:23 PM

  22. Craig, I swear you wait until I finally post something, and you immediately put up a new thread (:>)...

    Recap: Clinton is gaining momentum in the California Presidential Futures Market

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/02/super-tuesday-shortcuts.html#comment-27741

    UPDATE: At approx. 10:15 EST, the market started swinging hard in Clinton's direction. She now has a 70% probability of winning California, up 30% since the market open, and up over 20% in the last 1/2 hour.

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:23 PM

  23. Lardass: Craig wants you to go outside and check on the ALC-19 unit. (You won't need your helmet.)

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:23 PM

  24. OMG...someone on BONBC said HRC's message is working!

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:24 PM

  25. well, I hope it ends in a tie, for the dems, tonight. I want the circus to come to VA!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:24 PM

  26. Nash...I'm either a human space-fetus floating into infinity right now, or an ape-man throwing sticks at a strange obelisk. I can't remember. So I'm sort of paralyzed by your command.
    :)

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:26 PM

  27. Unelectable and unlikable...hmmm.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:26 PM

  28. Lushislinda: Thanks.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:26 PM

  29. Conn for Obama. Eat my shorts!

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:28 PM

  30. could KO be any more smug?

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:28 PM

  31. Whenever MSNBC says "after analysis" I automatically think "someone turn on CNN we need numbers"

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 10:28 PM

  32. I'm still trying to figure out what the roomful of 18th century French furniture meant.

    "Open the pod bay doors, Craig."

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:29 PM

  33. Tornado in Nashville...

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:29 PM

  34. LaLI

    Watch out for the detour at Jupiter

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 10:30 PM

  35. Lardass Liberal

    2001? It is 2008!

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:32 PM

  36. well...at least the BHO Connecticut win has cheered Chris up a bit :)

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:32 PM

  37. LushisLinda,

    KO's smugness is part of his appeal. He is an Ivy leaguer that is the smartest man in the room and he is one of the few people on TV that doesn't openly perform fellatio on a particular candidate...

    Which reminds me...Joe and Mika are doin it...lol

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:32 PM

  38. Brian....hopefully comments to some of the board: "Conn for Obama. Eat my shorts! "

    Thankfully we of the mammary mafia know you aren't including us....but why should we be surprised that the same state that voted in "I'll bend over for any Repub-Lieberman" voted for "let's all hold hands Obama"????

    Posted by: Patsi | February 5, 2008 10:32 PM

  39. Okay. Thanks Jamie. That means I must be the human space-fetus. And so I'll be careful. :)
    And Nash...hope they have Versailles chairs on Pluto!!!

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:33 PM

  40. Mitt on CNN

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:33 PM

  41. By the way, it's not a "space fetus," it's a "star child."
    -A.C. Clarke, Shri Lanka

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:33 PM

  42. I've been watching IT off & on. Have tried the 3 CSPAN channels off & on. No craig.

    tt

    Posted by: tiptoe Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:33 PM

  43. Blonde Wino...you have your movies mixed up.

    2008 = A Race Odyssey

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:35 PM

  44. Title of the "Mad Magazine" parody?
    "201 minutes of space idiocy."

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:35 PM

  45. Nash...that just proves that you're a pro-lifer.
    I say Space Fetus.
    You say Star Child.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:36 PM

  46. Nash

    We are looking out of the oval pod window, into an antique bedroom. The bedroom is not entirely antique, however, it has a lighted floor of glass or plexiglass. The camera shows the furniture -- the bed, etc. Suddenly space suited Dave is outside the pod. His face has aged. He walks laboriously into the bathroom and looks at himself in the mirror. Hearing the sound of knife and fork on a plate, he turns. As he looks out the door, he sees an elderly man eating at an elegant tray table. The man turns, gets up and walks to the bathroom, looks in, then returns to his seat. The pod has disappeared, and space suited Dave has also. Dave has apparently become the elderly man. He reaches for something and knocks over his crystal wineglass. As he looks at the broken glass, he hears gasping. Now in the bed is a really old man. The camera looks over elderly Dave and shows us the old man is also Dave, about 100 years old and dying. When the camera pulls back from a close-up of the old man, we see that elderly Dave has disappeared and the monolith is standing at the foot of the bed. When the camera turns from the monolith, Old Dave has disappeared and an embryo, in its amniotic sac, is in the bed. The camera zooms on the monolith, which blacks the screen. Suddenly the moon appears, to the strains of Also Sprach Zarathustra. The camera pans and there is the embryo, and it is Dave.

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 10:36 PM

  47. Because, as the Boston Globe reported in spring of 2006, Joe "BiPartisan" Lieberman was and is the mentor of Barack Obama.

    Obama rallies state Democrats, throws support behind Lieberman

    By Stephanie Reitz, Associated Press Writer | March 31, 2006

    HARTFORD, Conn. --U.S. Sen. Barack Obama rallied Connecticut Democrats at their annual dinner Thursday night, throwing his support behind mentor and Senate colleague Joe Lieberman.

    Obama, an Illinois Democrat who is considered a rising star in the party, was the keynote speaker at the annual Jefferson Jackson Bailey Dinner.

    http://boston.com/news/local/connecticut/articles/2006/03/31/obama_rallies_state_democrats_throws_support_behind_lieberman/

    Posted by: Lamont Worker | February 5, 2008 10:36 PM

  48. Patsi (I typoed and started this with Patis -- which I kinda like)

    How many registered dems in your state?

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:37 PM

  49. Is Romney's on crystal meth?

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:38 PM

  50. Arthur C. Clarke called the new being "Star Child"

    Love the concluding line on the short story where the missles are coming up from the earth aimed at the baby ...

    "He didn't know what he would, but he would think of something".

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 10:39 PM

  51. Yep...he sure is! He sure has the chant behind him!

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:39 PM

  52. "he is one of the few people on TV that doesn't openly perform fellatio on a particular candidate..."

    I don't know about that, Bear....I am thinking that any moment KO, CM and JS are going to get in a circle around BHO...and you know what sometimes happens when guys get in a circle ;)

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:40 PM

  53. Nash...I love it. The great untold story from 2008:

    "Mitt Romney owns five pit bulls, has a tattooed wife, and is cooking meth in a 2-bedroom, 1-bath house somewhere in some swing state."

    I bet he'd even sign on to the story at this point if it could get him a couple more delegates.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:40 PM

  54. Jamie...ahhh...you shoud be called the Brain...I love how you think, too.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:41 PM

  55. Is Romney on crystal meth?

    (I'm on 18oz of Starbucks Ethiopian)

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:41 PM

  56. Obama------"Mr. TRUTH & HOPE"

    At a recent campaign stop in Denver, Sen. Barack Obama portrayed his primary opponent Sen. Hillary Clinton as a hyper-cautious poll-driven candidate -- a criticism that Clinton critics are often lob.

    "If you choose change, you will have a nominee who doesn't just tell people what they want to hear," Obama said.

    But a look at campaign finance filings reveals that it is Obama not Clinton who has spent more on polling and surveying. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/05/obama-has-spent-more-on-p_n_85125.html

    Posted by: GORDO | February 5, 2008 10:41 PM

  57. tiptoe,

    earlier while you were napping Craig said he was on his couch in DC that ankle is still hurting so no tv.

    yo soy Horsedooty!

    Posted by: Horsedooty! | February 5, 2008 10:42 PM

  58. Mormons do not drink coffee...they made an exception for Pepsi (as they owned it).

    McCain in AZ....winner take all.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:43 PM

  59. Not the brain, just a multi decade collection of almost useless information :-)

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 10:43 PM

  60. One more sign that many of the the Republicans are COMPLETELY nuts...

    They think McCain isn't a conservative.

    On what weird fascist planet do these people dwell?

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:43 PM

  61. C --Chris
    O --Olbermann
    J --Joe

    COJ...circle of jerks

    AAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:45 PM

  62. Jamie

    You may have grown-up "training" for a game show...it is very useful in politics.

    Really love how you think.

    I used to think my mind was a "terrible thing..."

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:46 PM

  63. Matthews is biased,
    Scarborough Fair.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:46 PM

  64. to waste, that is.


    OMG...can you all feel Dubya leaving us???

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:46 PM

  65. Jamie...useless maybe to the world, but priceless to all of us.
    :)

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:47 PM

  66. Olbermann = ubermensch?

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:48 PM

  67. Blonde Wino...I wish I could feel that way. Cept Dubya just showed up at my front door, wearing tattered clothes and asking for a bowl of chili. So I guess I'll be stuck with him for a while.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:48 PM

  68. Thank you Thank you

    Autographs will be signed in the lobby

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 10:49 PM

  69. Patsi,

    If you read the MSNBC.com story that I linked to in a previous thread today, you will see that Obama did well in the cities. He did pick up some Jewish voters who did support Lieberman over Lamont, but most of that vote went Hillary's way.

    I just thought of something. As a teenager in the 80's, I can vividly remember how vital a voting block the Jewish population was for Democrats. I noticed that Jews aren't nearly as courted nowadays by political candidates. Or if they are, the courtship is not nearly as public. Craig and Co, what is your opinion about that?

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:49 PM

  70. mitt at it again...plagarizing fictional senatorial candidate Charles Palantine in "Taxi Driver"....
    "We the people will take Washingon!"
    That line of baloney is nutso!

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:50 PM

  71. Nice NYT graphic Brian, but it's not very complete at this point. It'll be good to check it in the AM.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:50 PM

  72. Oh yeah...Hillary is going to speak...but let's go to Joe

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:50 PM

  73. Brian...honestly. Why do you keep trying to spin the rest of this blog in "real time" when the reality you profess to know in advance will be common knowledge in, like, 10 minutes from now.
    It seems like an awful waste of energy.
    Just relax and enjoy the party, friend.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:51 PM

  74. "Mitt Romney owns five pit bulls, has a tattooed wife, and is cooking meth in a 2-bedroom, 1-bath house somewhere in some swing state."

    You mean...Mitt's..."Breaking Bad"???

    Posted by: harborwoman | February 5, 2008 10:51 PM

  75. Here she is...now on msnbc

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:51 PM

  76. LL

    Blonde Wino...you have your movies mixed up.

    2008 = A Race Odyssey

    : )))
    I like how you think, too.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:51 PM

  77. Ally here...I'm new to the blog. I have been an observer since Craig's infamous appearance on Morning Joe the day of the South Carolina primary and have been a fan ever since. I wanted to ask the panel's opinion about why Obama does better in caucus states? Being from Iowa I witnessed the popularity test in person. I have my own opinions but was wondering what all of you bright people think before I share...

    Posted by: Ally Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:51 PM

  78. Dexter; Are you talking to me?

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:51 PM

  79. In Amherst Mass,

    Obama 4139
    Clinton 1954

    I thought a hallmark of the Clinton's was how well they did with the academic cities or amongst the highly educated...

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:53 PM

  80. Why is Hillary speaking before the polls closed in California? Are her internals saying the news isn't good, and she should speak before the california numbers come in?

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:54 PM

  81. No, Bear, those are viewed to be Obama's voters.

    Posted by: harborwoman | February 5, 2008 10:55 PM

  82. Ally, could it be that in the privacy of the voting booth people vote as they wish while at a caucus they tend to "toe the line?"

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:55 PM

  83. Ally,

    My guess is that when people are publicly declaring their voting intentions they are more easily swayed by the idea of keeping up appearances. They don't want to be seen as unhip within their community. I also think that in states with caucuses, Obama's team made a concerted effort to organize which I think plays to a strength of having such active and youthful supporters...

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:55 PM

  84. "Just relax and enjoy the party,"

    This is like a big party tonight!! I wish everyone could be right here in my LR!! :D

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:56 PM

  85. I don't know, Brian. But...gee...we may all know in like....THREE MINUTES!!!

    Just relax, pal.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:56 PM

  86. LL

    Give him (Dubya) some Johnnie Walker....

    Oh dear, HRC is talking about mortgages again....now stem cells...c'mon HRC invoke God's name again! Going for the General.

    : )

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:56 PM

  87. Hillary reminds me of my sixth grade teacher.

    She excavated Mayan ruins during the summer.

    She got bitten in the Yucatan by a rattlesnake.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:57 PM

  88. (Lardass thinking about being in LushIs Living room, strippin' down to Bizness Socks. Only after laundry is done, of course)

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:57 PM

  89. Harbor,

    Is your reply with regards to my query about the Jewish vote? That surprises me a bit since I have always thought there was an underlying battle over which group got shit on worse by the white man...

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:58 PM

  90. Besides Cali, what other state still has not been reported?

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:58 PM

  91. nash...did she survive the Yucatan?

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:58 PM

  92. New Mexico

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:59 PM

  93. Bear: It's called the Democratic People's Republic of Amherst.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:59 PM

  94. AAAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA @ LaL!!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 10:59 PM

  95. Ally

    A Caucus by its nature is a matter of local organization and delivering people to the polls. If a candidate can mobilize key groups (i.e. unions, churches etc.) who can deliver people to the polls they will do better than one who can't even though the population of the state might prefer another candidate.

    So for Obama vs. Clinton, it just depends on which states and which groups. In Nevada she got more votes, but because of the caucus precincts he got more delegates.

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:00 PM

  96. Bear...see our posts about Sammy Davis, Jr. He was the best and so loved by most of us here.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:00 PM

  97. Which reminds me. I work in the mortgage industry and Hillary Clinton proves herself to be an idiot, every time she speaks about trying to fix the mortgage industry because what she is proposing is already required on most loans.

    If you are going to come out for something, take a second to research it first. Most people who are in trouble with their mortgages didn't take the time to understand their loan or just ignored the shortfalls and only focussed on the end result...getting into the house they had to have instead of one they could actually afford...

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:00 PM

  98. Best HRC post election speech so far. So nice when she is conversational.

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:01 PM

  99. Ally,
    In Iowa it was all about organization. As I have heard from many activists all over the state, the Obama people met caucus-goers at the door to the caucuses and started recruiting the undecideds and soft-leaners. The Edwards people hung back some but managed to recruit the left-overs. The Clinton people, for the most part, didn't know how to recruit. I suspect there are variations on the same theme in other caucus states.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:01 PM

  100. Alaska and American Samoa

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:01 PM

  101. Nash...did the snake die?

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:03 PM

  102. Bear...I was responding to your 10:53 post about the academic/highly educated in Amherst, MA. these have been declared Obama voters by the media. However, I'm reasonably well-educated, and am watching the reactions of the two candidates tonight, still trying to make up my mind. Frankly, I still prefer Edwards.

    Posted by: harborwoman | February 5, 2008 11:03 PM

  103. Which eye was Sammy's glass eye? I never could tell...

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:03 PM

  104. Minn. for Obama!

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:03 PM

  105. Bear...the mortgage industry has the refis...I thing HRC is pandering to the home mortgage holders not the mortgage brokers.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:04 PM

  106. Damm...I love this old vine shiraz.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:05 PM

  107. Ally, welcome to Craig Crawford's Playhouse. There are at least three of us from Iowa who hang around here (Zoey, Chickadee, and me that I know of).

    There are times when things get slung around here, but in the end, we all (well, at least most of us) respect each other and would, by all indications, easily share adult beverages if we were all in the same room...

    Again -- welcome to our little corner of the political universe...

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:05 PM

  108. Sammy Davis had a glass eye?

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:06 PM

  109. re: She got bitten in the Yucatan.

    Yes, she survived but her Yucatan had to be amputated.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:07 PM

  110. oh Bear...SDJ was still the best...and now I know I need to keep an eye on you!

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:07 PM

  111. Spike: Which part of the state are you, Zoey and Chickadee in?

    Posted by: Ally Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:07 PM

  112. Mike Huckabee has such a soothing voice

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:09 PM

  113. Now I am really looking forward to Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio...

    And what of Michigan and Florida?

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:10 PM

  114. "Yes, she survived but her Yucatan had to be amputated. "

    Nash is here all week folks. Please don't forget to tip the wait staff.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:10 PM

  115. Mike Huckabee channels Kevin Spacey....

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:11 PM

  116. Quick update from the California Intrade Presidential Futures Market...

    Clinton is still holding a 70% probability of winning California, but is still not a sure thing. Obama is holding about a 28% probability of winning.

    Since the open today, Clinton is up 30%, Obama is down 30%. However, the market normally has decided a winner (probability greater than 90%) by the time the polls close.

    This suggests its going to be a squeeker, and probablity a very long night....

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:11 PM

  117. Mike Huckabee has halitosis.

    That's absolutely all anyone needs to know about him.

    Huckatosis.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:12 PM

  118. Ally, Zoey and I are in the Des Moines area. I'm not sure what part of the state Chickadee is in.

    And you?

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:13 PM

  119. Spike

    Thanks...I have to be in the jury box by 8:15 am (Mountain time).

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:13 PM

  120. well...huck me!!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:14 PM

  121. If you want to watch California, here is the Sec of State results

    http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/dem/59.htm#cnty

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:14 PM

  122. Only 1% in KALI-FORNYA

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:15 PM

  123. reporting, that is.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:16 PM

  124. It was his left eye. Most photos of him are taken from the right side so that you don't see that the left isn't quite "tracking" properly.

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:17 PM

  125. nash:

    Well, there's nobody else here so I must be talking to you!
    [Dexter quick-draws one big gun and one little one on nash]

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:17 PM

  126. I have been looking around on the web.
    Seems that 90 % of Kansas City has reported as has 50% of Saint Louis City.

    Looks like a Clinton win.

    Jack

    Posted by: whskyjack | February 5, 2008 11:18 PM

  127. Spike: I am over here in Cedar Rapids. We just moved to Iowa two years ago from Seattle. The caucus was quite a shock! Our room was like a pep rally with all the popular kids in one corner and the nerds (and geriatrics) in the other corner. I'm sure you can figure out who the popular kids were supporting. I was with the nerds and brought 4 women to the caucus from a retirement community! I felt like an old hag at 38-years-old!

    Posted by: Ally Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:19 PM

  128. Well, this has been fun, but I gotta WORK tomorrow.

    If I load 16 tons, I get an extra Twinkie at lunch.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:19 PM

  129. Bear,

    All of the candidates probably wanted to speak before the 11 O'Clock news on the East coast.

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:20 PM

  130. Night Nash

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:21 PM

  131. I hear angels singing...

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:21 PM

  132. Jamie...my next door neighbor had this picture of Jesus on the wall, with eyes perfectly centered, meaning he appeared to be watching you no matter where you moved in the room.

    So...are you telling me...Mike Huckabee's eye's somehow don't track properly and therefore he is NOT JESUS!!!

    Cancel My Vote!!! (unless you were talking about someone else)

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:21 PM

  133. If MSNBC projection about the delegate split hold true I can now see why Edwards has held off making an endorsement.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:22 PM

  134. Dexter: If you wake up tomorrow, and Mitt Romney is wearing a Mohawk, watch out.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:23 PM

  135. night nash.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:24 PM

  136. Obama does wwell in caucus states -- but as I recall, the november contest is an election, not a caucus. I wonder if the super delegates will consider that

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:24 PM

  137. Spike: Can I stay up just a little longer?

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:26 PM

  138. The question was about Sammy Davis, Jr.

    Which eye did he lose in the auto accident? Left

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:29 PM

  139. Say goodnight, Nash....

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:30 PM

  140. Dang. I was looking for another cheap Huckabee slam.

    Okay...but we can all still agree that Sammy Davis is not Jesus. Okay?

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:30 PM

  141. Well folks. 4:00 a.m. comes early.

    See you all tomorrow when it's all over but the gloating. :)

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:31 PM

  142. nash? did you call a Checker? I'll drive any time, any where...and I'll pick up anybody...and someday a real rain is gonna come and wash all this scum away...Weather Channel says January 20...I can wait.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:31 PM

  143. No Sammy was a different nice Jewish boy.

    Posted by: Jamie | February 5, 2008 11:31 PM

  144. Nite Jamie. It was fun.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:32 PM

  145. Okay gang. I'm switching over to Wild Turkey and hunkering down for California results.
    That means the computer has to be shut off.
    See you all tomorrow. Twas great fun tonight.

    Posted by: LardassLiberal Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:33 PM

  146. Huckabee kills me...the goober might win a few more states yet tonight, sez crazy-hair Fat Tim.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:33 PM

  147. "Romney will use no whine before its time," sez Chris hardballs. Huckabee said ,"I wanted that line but my staff said nobody would 'get it'."

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:35 PM

  148. Night, Lardass....

    Posted by: harborwoman | February 5, 2008 11:36 PM

  149. Lardass , good choice...a favorite of mine from years back...but it was expensive, as my wife dumped it down the sink all the time.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:37 PM

  150. somebody cage that crazy goofy armadillo on my TV screen!

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:38 PM

  151. McCain ... I can't take any more of this...I am rooting hard for Huckabee,at least he's not insane!

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:40 PM

  152. McCain looks like a rabid chipmunk.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:40 PM

  153. Oh sh*t...just spilled a glass of wine...my inlaws from Arizona just called...they are so excited about Hillary...I now hear McBush praising the Huckster...

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:42 PM

  154. Oh Lord..please don't tell me they are going to interrupt McCain for Obama

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:43 PM

  155. c-span cut to obama....

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:44 PM

  156. BO now on CNN

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:44 PM

  157. If McCain had a heart attack, his last word would be...
    "Rosebud."

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:44 PM

  158. Oh Lord...yes they did!!

    The jerks are circling Obama

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:45 PM

  159. So, why is Obama giving his speech before Cali is counted?

    Did someone ask that about Clinton earlier?

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:46 PM

  160. BO is too late for the east coast news...but, he did mention the tornadoes.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:46 PM


  161. NEW THREAD

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:47 PM

  162. OK. Here's the soundbite you will hear over and over again tomorrow...

    "Our time has come"
    -Barak Obama

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:48 PM

  163. Oh dear, when he mentoned Iowa...a weak response....I do see him fading.

    Posted by: Blonde wino Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:48 PM

  164. colorado goes to Obama

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | February 5, 2008 11:50 PM

  165. Hey Bear....good to see you back even if we disagree...:):)

    I'm just saying that this whole "he does well among rich people" and the "low class Hillary supporters V top shelf Obama people" is starting to wear thin on me....


    Blonde -- I haven't had a chance to answer you question about TN Dems....just turned the computer back on because of the storms....

    Posted by: Patsi | February 5, 2008 11:58 PM

  166. I agree, Patsi. Something you said recently led me to the conclusion that we're pretty well matched in terms of educational level, and I just can't see that it has much to do with which of the candidates one supports. It seems more likely to me that it's the whole of one's life experiences that lead a voter in one direction or another.

    Posted by: harborwoman | February 6, 2008 12:22 AM

  167. Well. Obama has shown an ability to win in States that will go Red come November. Is anyone really suggesting Obama victories in these States mean he can win them? Please, how do Red State victories for Obama make his case when the Reagan Democrats in these Republican-safe States are registered Republicans?

    Hillary however, wins in Democratic States. She will win California. I see the case that Obama is stronger in a general election fading fast. He didn't convince Hispanics in his own State.

    I think the Giant's win was more satisfying though less predictable than Super Tuesday victories for Hillary. I still bet Giants by three. When the vote is open and not limited to a few thousand caucaus voters, Hillary usually wins. The margin in Mass should send Teddy a wake up call. Hillary is winning delegates AND the popular vote. Florida and Michigan will be counted so I don't see any trends here supporting the obituaries given the Clintons. I smile given the gifts bias media has given the Obama camp. Look at all those Liberal endorsements. Maybe people see through the contradictory message and media handicapping. Yes?
    Or did Clinton generate bad weather to swing Tenn.? LOL

    And unlike Hillary, Obama really did need a significant black vote to win tonight, so his constant drum of civil rights, MLK, and how insensitive the Clintons are about race have been effective in certain States. Of course, the results also show that this tact is not sufficient to carry the larger States and suggest a distrubing trend regarding his national appeal using this divisive equation many in media try to blame on Clinton.

    "Our time has come" would have been appropiate if California, New Jersey, New York had voted for Obama. Iowa is not the front door of mainstream Democrats. Again, Red State victories mean what? It is winner takes all come November and Hillary is quite ready to debate Obama, even on Fox News. The States Obama will show in his pocket simply do not make the case about his chances for national appeal. Oh. people know Obama, but the questions I have asked and the contradictory signals coming out raise serious flags. As the debate gets even more wonkish, expect many unasked questions to come up. If Obama doesn't somehow defuse the race issue, reach out to women with brighter moves than parading Teddy, and address the Hispanic community and Independents, the next big States will vote for Hillary. You have to answer questions and vet policy. National polls still show Americans concerned about Iran, terrorism, Putin, China, AQ, the economy and healthcare. Oabma has not made the case with vague rhetoric. And people are wondering if unting for Obama means bringing Liberal Kos together with Liberal Huffington while Hispanics and Blacks, Jews and moonbats, old and young, wealthy and poor fight each other as never before.

    Kudis Hillary and kudos Giants. Your time has come....
    well, for Hillary, she has some more tough fighting left to return to the White House. McCain will be sharpening his knives.

    Posted by: Maxtrue | February 6, 2008 12:31 AM

  168. I attended a Kansas caucus tonight. What a joke!!! I mean there were over a thousand caucus goers and the democratic chairman asked republicans and independents to stand up. Guess what 75% of BO's group were republicans and independents. No one in HC's group stood up. You could change your party affiliation the night of the caucus but there were too many people there for that to actually occur.BO had over 900 votes to HC's over 300.

    If this is how caucuses were held in MN, ND.ID, & CO I'm not surprised by the outcome. My husband deadpanned is this actually a DEMOCRATIC caucus? I'll tell you one thing there is no way that number of republicans are going to stay in the democratic column here in KS.in november. It is ridiculous.

    I must say having lived in primary states previously this was a real eye opener. Someone told me that four years ago at that same caucus location there were 36 caucus goers. Sorry this was long.

    Posted by: LE Wells | February 6, 2008 1:50 AM

  169. I am from Massachusetts and voted for Hillary. I've stopped watching MSNBC--Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, Tucker Carlson are drinking the Obama kool aid. It is disgusting. I've moved to Fox. I have been listening to Obama in debates, and when it was time to vote, I do not know what "change" means--What would an Obama Administration look like? What plans does he have for change? How will they be implemented? I don't have a clue what change means to Obama. His red state blue state speech is getting tired. Barack, please give us some substance if you get the nomination because you won't make it in the general without the beef. Matthews, Scarborough, Tucker, and all the rest at MSNBC won't be able to help you at that time. We don't need a press who is in love with a candidate. We need unbiased reporting. It's so sad that we can't believe the press today. Nothing is ever true. The NH fiasco should have taught the press a lesson. All day Monday, it was Hillary is losing big time in California. She's down in NJ.and Massachusetts. Thank God the voters are on to the press. It's worse than ever.

    Posted by: Daria | February 7, 2008 12:10 AM

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