Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Woo Woo.

Buchanan on MoJo. "White people won't vote for Obama."

Thanks for that, Pat.

Can't believe I'm first! Good point about the organizing for the caucuses. Some of the caucus locations were also problematic. I was phone banking for Hillary voters in Washington State and I heard from older voters who didn't want to have to take a ferry to go caucus. Why were these caucuses held so far away from these voters?

Grass roots in Maine?

An Obama organizer walked right into my office and asked me if I was going to the caucus.

Hillary sent me an e-mail.

Buchanan actually said that? One more reason to stay tuned to CNN until C-Span comes on....

How the MSM now frames Obama vs Clinton...

Clinton: Malfunctioning Machine.

Obama: Children's Crusade.

Patsi: Well...that wasn't EXACTLY what he said. I am not a reliable source. (But that was what he meant.)

The Office shake up in the Clinton Campaign kind of sucks the oxigen out of the room...I like Doyle and she showed great inteligence.

But some times campaigns morph into something that needs an injection of something different.

With the 5 mill loan and now this, Clinton had better come off this with something really earth shattering for she may have just given her run a last breath.

What Buchanan actually said...

"White people in the south and ethnic blue collar Democrats in the rest of the country, "Reagan Democrats," will not vote for Obama. They'll vote for McCain and the Democrats can't win without them."

I wonder if the Clinton campaign will use this argument,

Whiny Lanny Davis (Clintonite) is on MSNBC. Lanny was point spin man during "Le-Affaire de Lewinsky."

Apparently, the MSM is misinterpreting what really happened this weekend. He just said Hillary is "attracting blue collar voters." So...it took about 3 minutes for the Clintonistas to pick up on the Buchanan analysis and use racist code words.

Jeez. Now Buchanan is back on, AGREEING WITH LANNY.

Drinking Game.
I'd love to see a youtube video of Lanny Davis & Tucker Carlson taking turns slapping each other and tossing back wine coolers.

A number of pro-Hillary military people around here who plan to vote for McCain if Obama gets the DEM nomination. These are mostly retired senior officers who have been actively working on Hillary's campaign. (There's a lot of people like that around NoVA.) The Bush war record flipped them to the DEM column and an Obama-McCain race will send them back to the GOP.

A pretty good number of women DEMs are deeply upset with the Obama campaign's continual dissing of Hillary. People walked out on BO's speech at the JJ Dinner in Richmond on Saturday. They did not appreciate paying $175 -250 a ticket for a DEM fundraiser that was hijacked by Governor Tim Kaine to be a campaign rally for Obama. I was sitting at a table with some major donors to Clinton who also gave thousands to Kaine and they were pissed. Tim Kaine better not ask for their help anytime soon.

Obama needs to change his tone if he hopes to have any party unity left should he win the nomination

Krugman in today's NYT...

"I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody. I’m not the first to point out that the Obama campaign seems dangerously close to becoming a cult of personality. We’ve already had that from the Bush administration — remember Operation Flight Suit? We really don’t want to go there again."

Record Dem turnout in Maine. This from today's "Bangor Daily News."

Not only was the caucus in Belfast delayed for more than an hour as clerks registered new or party-switching voters, the site was so crowded it had to be moved from the Troy Howard Middle School cafeteria to the gymnasium. Hundreds of voters filled the chairs on the floor and both sets of bleachers to pick delegates to the state party convention.

"I’ve been doing this for 18 years and I’ve never seen anything like this at a caucus," Belfast City Clerk Roberta Fogg said after handling the new registrants. "This is the first time I’ve ever had more than a handful. At the Republican caucus last week, I think I had four."

Divalicious

It's good to have an "I was there" report about the J/J dinner. At the time, I was in a major back and forth about why my teeth were on edge about the Obama presentation. Your paragraph explains it all.

Some here have raked me over the coals about having doubts on voting for Obama if he is the nominee. If Mr. and Mrs. Obama are saying their voters won't vote for Hillary, and Mrs. Obama says he would have to "think about it" when asked if she would support Clinton, then why should I support them?

I'll probably vote Dem simply because it is in the best interest of the country, but speak to your candidates not me ... they waffled first.

"So...it took about 3 minutes for the Clintonistas to pick up on the Buchanan analysis and use racist code words."

Nash -- this is utter bullsh#t. You and others are playing the race card so much that -- as I told you one of my black political friends worried about -- you are turning Barack into the affirmative action candidate.

Patsi: I was joking.

"Tryin' to make me go to rehab, I say, no, no, no."
-George Winehouse Bush

I am soooooooooooo sick of the racist remarks...I am so tired of anything said that people don't agree with they go OH THATS CODE for RACISM. I think this is getting so annoying.

I don't dislike Senator and Mrs. Obama because they are black. I dislike them on their own merits. They did it the old fashioned way. They earned it.

"Annoyance" is a code word for racism.

Other code words for racism:
shoe, nostalgia, aqueous.

(They're everywhere.)

You have nailed it, Craig. The demcore has never had a good ground game here in southern New Mexico. And HRC represents the demcore. BHO is a new type of candidate and that is "why" he is getting out the vote. HRC is benefiting from the loyal demcore. So, I still believe it will come down to the convention and Superdelegates (I need an acronym for them...too much to type).

CNN has a poll on the Superdelegates and it is interesting how HRC and BHO are approaching the Superdelegates...two were interviewed. Different approach, different motivation. They are approaching the voters differently.

Throughout the years, every dem rallies here have been a joke...really not for new voters, but for the loyalists. Turned-off a lot of peeps.

I still remain loyal to HRC. I do not need motivation, but I do not think I represent the average voter.

I worked all day yesterday and have a full week...I spent the day with my boss...she is floundering. Her brother died a week ago and my BIL died a few months back. We both are in our grief spiral and I tried to help her focus yesterday...we are in the middle of merger. Must work..Must work..Must work.

To celebrate, hubby (who also worked yesterday) watched Sicko. Just to drive home all this dying. I really have to look at those candidate health plans again or move. : )

Must work...Must work....

Most Hillary people know that these are the roughest days of the campaign. Obama does have a better strategy to win caucuses in small and mostly red states where there aren't many Democratic voters. Hillary's strength is in the larger states. The Chesapeake Primary will likely go pro-Obama -- but there is an excellent district -by- district analysis of the Virginia delegate situation done by Not Chuck Robb -- which shows hat Hilary can still pull a good number of delegates out of the Old Dominion. http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/

Not sure about Maryland. Hillary has the support of the Governor there. She may as well cede Prince William County and Baltimore City -- but don't automatically count Montgomery County in the Obama column -- there is a heavy Latino vote there and combined with large populations of seniors in Silver Spring (Leisure World) and Bethesda (Pooks Hill). It would depend on how big a vote comes out of Baltimore City and PG County. Maryland is a closed primary also -- can't vote unless registered by party within 120 days of the election. That doesn't help Obama. His big rally at UMd is more for show -- the closed voter registration in Maryland makes it difficult for students to vote.

BW: Excellent comment.

I propose a new official Crawfordslist Acronym:
Super Delegates = SDs

A partial list of acronyms & code words:
MoJo: Moring Joe
MoDo: Maureen Dowd
Tweety: Chris Matthews
BO: Barak Obama
HRC: Hillary Rodam Clinton
Dems: Democrats
Repugs: Republicans
KO: Ketih Olbermann
Billary: Clinton Dynasty

Did I forget any?

PaBu.........pat buchanan?

Sturgeone and Nash

: ) I need a cheat sheet, thanks. SD it is.

And I love PaBu.

And Nash, my new persona is using BHO as requested.

CheShe.........cheat sheet

ha ha ha .........JoKe...........john kerry

I am very anxious to watch MLRO on Larry King tonight. For her husband's sake, I sincerely hope she leaves all her cockiness at home. 8)

Jamie and Diva: Props on your comments regarding the JJ dinner. I was not online Saturday night while watching the speeches and then came on Sunday morning with the stupid remark, "Any thoughts on the speeches last night?" Not knowing the dialogue that had been in a previous thread. I felt Obama's speech to be very off in tone and tenor and I am glad to know it wasn't just me. If Obama is to be the nominee, can we please start unifying the party...quick-like?

I didn't realize Roy Scheider was 75. He was one of my favorites particularly in "All That Jazz" though everybody will remember Jaws

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/movies/11scheider.html?em&ex=1202878800&en=d67b73161697dc8d&ei=5087%0A

What is racist about the term blue-collar Democrats aka lunch box Democrats? Hasn't the term been around forever? Is blue-collar code for white? Please explain.

Diva: Why did Washington put the Presidential Primary Vote on the ballot if they were only counting the caucus results? Many people I know thought they could just vote on the paper ballot.

Also: Hillary's ground game should include sending buses to nursing homes. I took 4 old ladies to the Iowa caucus and it was very challenging as some of them had walkers, wheelchairs etc. (this is not a joke.) The Clinton campaign should have had special vans picking these people up and they just weren't there.

HALPERIN’S TAKE: 10 Things Clinton Can Do to Survive February

http://thepage.time.com/halperins-take-10-things-clinton-an-do-to-survive-february/

love the "Hillambo" pic !!

Mornin' all

HRC's new theme song for her revamped campaign

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWWXWZZBCuI

Jack

Not to just slam one side

Obama's Campaign theme song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ5SVDYBNrY

Jack

errrrrrrrrrr Jack

Hand reaches out and rapidly covers Jamie's mouth ...

glufhhtu=s mmmmumble

The reporting on the Solis Doyle and Williams change over are interesting. Apparently Solis Doyle got into the weeds and was micro managing every decision incluiding whether to order bagels or doughnuts for events. Williams has been there for over a month
and apparently the "other guys" have been trying to get rid of Solis Doyle since Iowa.

Ok
Just one more.

In an attempt to expand her base HRC is reaching out to the urban youth vote with this new theme song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TlKEQ2nIyo

Jack

WSJ has a MObama on the front page...her graph pic looks sort of mean...and her eyes are definitely looking left.

Must work...must work....off now....be careful out there and keep an eye out for the other guy.

Bagels vs. Doughnuts IS a big decision! What does pastry choice say about a campaign anyway?

Blond,

Since I'm always yowling about bias in the photos of Senator Clinton, I have to admit that someone didn't have the best interests of the Obamas at heart in that picture.

http://online.wsj.com/article/infogrfx_photos_of_the_day.html?mod=hpp_us_photos

Ok
I lied

From the HRC fan club

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdDxz2bkfhE

Jack
Yes I'm on my second pot of coffee. Why do you ask?

the first mistake is limiting the choice to bagels v doughnuts...what about bear claws and cinnamon buns? And of course there are regional considerations as well.

That may address the loss in Washington State, home of the Cinnabon!

Congressman Tom Lantos has passed away.

Jack - Stop trying to get me into trouble. I'm really, really trying to select judicious words today.

Endorsements you probably don't want: John Bolton just endorsed John McCain. Blechhhhhhh fwo up in my mouf time.

Good Morning Craig, Interesting take on the leaving of Doyle and the weekend from hell for Hillary. IMO Doyle has two young children and none of us know why she stepped down. When a political ad comes on tv, I turn the channel. So I really don’t think they are as vote leading as they once where…………say before the internet. Maybe BO needs them, but I don’t think Hillary does for name recognition. Same with phone calls or fliers, I don’t answer, and I throw the paper in the circle file. Could it be that Hillary has a plan? Maybe to get him off center, give him a taste of victory so it is only sweeter when he loses?

What’s the latest word on the delegates from your home state?

Ally -- For the DEMs the caucus results determined the allocation of 100% delegates, so the primaries really didn't matter. For the GOP, primary results would allocate 51% and caucuses would allocate 49%. The Primary will be held on Feb 19th.

We must all keep East Timor's president and 1996 Nobel Peace Prize winner, Jose Ramos-Horta, in our thoughts and prayers today. He suffered stomach and chest wounds when shot yesterday by rebel soldiers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/world/asia/12timor.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jose_Ramos-Horta

He was instrumental in achieving East Timor's independence from Indonesia, served as Prime Minister and then elected president as an "honest broker."

Need more people in the world like him, not less.

Just in case MSNBC can't find a correct photo of her, here is a picture of Maggie Williams

http://www.iop.harvard.edu/images/fellows_photos/S2005fellow_williams.jpg

and some background:

Prior to the campaign: Chief of staff to former president Bill Clinton managing both his foundation and his personal staff. Prior to joining the Clinton Foundation, Williams was president of Fenton Communications, a 37 person company specializing in delivering media and advertising services to nonprofit and advocacy organizations. From 1993-97, Williams served in the White House as one of seventeen assistants to President Clinton. During that period she also served as Chief of Staff to First Lady Hillary Clinton and was the first person to hold both positions concurrently

Wow, that was fast, re Tom Lantos.

Scotch lovers (Jamie perks up ears): want to buy departing neighbor a good bottle, I guess single malt(?), but it does not have to be break the bank.

Suggestions plz?

Diva: Will they release the primary results?

Tom Lantos has died. This is the second hero is a few days -- in Virginia we lost a great man in Mitch VanYehres.
http://www.democraticcentral.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1491

jamie

It looks like the Neocons are having no trouble supporting McCain. Perhaps the biggest reason not to vote for him are the neocons that will be a major part of his administration. That and like Ted Kennedy he is an out of control maverick most of the time. I don't think he has built up a lot of trust in the Senate.

BTW glad you like the music selection for your morning coffee
Jack

dog's eye -- Can you help me find a photo to help my sister (a Republican who gets TONS of anti-Obama and Hillary emails) refute that bogus hand-over-the heart story? I've been sending her snopes reports and such about the Muslin crap et al, but one of her most rabid right wing emailers wants a photo as "proof"....

By the way, while my sis is a Hillary supporter, she is rigorously defending Obama against this stuff.

Patsi: on it. Shall see what I can find. Thanks.

"What’s the latest word on the delegates from your home state? -- Posted by: Linda~in~Wisconsin"

-- Florida Dem activists i've talked to see no resolution if no presumed nominee emerges before the convention to seat them. For the first time, their bitterness seems extendable to the general election unless Clinton is the nominee, as she is the only one they perceive as caring about the state. But the GOP gov, Charlie Crist, is riding so high after delivering FL to McCain that he might be able to keep FL out of reach for Dems no matter who they nominate. Definitely looking like the Dem Plan A for November might have to leave FL out of th equation.

-- What about Wisconsin, Linda:? Think it should be a hot one, we need your Trailspotting

Patsi: hope this will help. Shall look for anything else.

WaPost factchecker on emails accusing Obama of not placing hand over heart during pledge of allegiance; has 2 nice photos of him at bottom of post showing he does

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2007/11/obama_nabbed_by_the_patriotic.html

Some easy on the ears music for those just waking up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1sLrRlCobY

Jack

Tan...I was wondering that too - what about "blue collar workers" is racist? Blue collar workers come from all ethnic backgrounds.

But I didn't see the segmant Nash is referring to so I don't know the entire story.

But this is just like the "fairy tale" comment getting turned into a racist remark. From...Obama's record on the war is a fairy tale to Obama's candidacy a fairy tale...huh?

"Suggestions plz?" Posted by: dog's eye view

MACALLANS, period. Whatever age you can afford: http://www.themacallan.com

Lantos had been ill for awhile and had already dropped out of the Congressional race. He was being challenged in the primary by Jackie Spiers who was shot and survived Jonestown. At the time she was an aid to Congressman Leo Ryan who died at Jonestown.

Wendy: I am still looking for a code explanation on blue-collar as well.

Top of the day peeps.

Craig isn't getting people to the polls pretty much one of the basics of campaigning 101? Also doesn't the Hillary caucus problem also go to the long standing hubris of the Clinton campaign, and their dismissive attitude towards the Obama campaign? So lets see so far Obama has raised more money, won more states, accrued more "regular" delegates, and nationwide more people have voted for him. Now would someone explain to me why I as a Democrat should trust Hillary Clinton can put together a campaign that will be able to beat the repugs in Nov?

Someone at the Clinton campaign needs to read the fable of the Tortuous and Hair.

dog's Eye
The current rate of exchange is going to injure your credit card no matter what you pick, but within reason:

The one I brought back with me was Glengoyne 20 year old.

http://www.glengoyne.com/age_verification.php

It's a single malt and very, very smooth. It comes from the Argyle region which is a little unusual since so many of the Great Scotches are from the Highlands and Islands. The cheapest Gengoyne on their website was about $50 for a twelve year old and that is about as young as you want to get.

I like the Islay whiskeys as well. They have a rather "smoky" rich flavor and something of an acquired taste but very very good.

http://www.laphroaig.com/

way off topic, but re: Leo Ryan.. that shooting and the koolaid aftermath was what solidified my vague notion of wanting to be a journalist... I was IN Journalism 101 when all that happened..

Of course, if Clinton had put more effort into caucuses, it's possible Obama would have matched or exceeded that effort, knowing even more would be required to win. So there's no straight-line extrapolation of "if we did this," then "this would have happened." Not this year.

tylenol

It certainly was a bizarre time in SF, It came right after the assasinations of Moscone and Milk.
Jim Jones had been very active in local politics and needless to say some straight reporting would have been helpful. The rumor mills were grinding it out 24/7.

I see what you mean , Brian.

http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/bugs%2Bbunny/video/x8vid_tortoise-wins-by-a-hare

The general election is not a caucus. Hillary has delivered most of the biggest primary prizes (I will grant you a "so far" qualifier to this statement.)

As I have always said about the Clintons, they know how to work the standard political machine. That is why Republicans are more afraid of a Clinton victory...she will get through more of her agenda than Obama could ever hope to precisely for this reason.

The caucuses have definitely gotten the Clintons off their game.

Craig,

Can I come drink at your house?

-- What about Wisconsin, Linda:? Think it should be a hot one, we need your Trailspotting

Well Craig, nationally they have BO as the favorite. State wide, I haven’t seen any polls yet. Gov is for BO and Lt. Gov is for Hillary. Feingold hasn’t endorsed anyone yet. We have a population that is very diverse; in that the southern region is more progressive and the northern region more realistic. But then, it is the home of the republican party!! (No hate mails, Please!!)

All of my friends, students and their parents are for Hillary, I don’t know one person in this little town that is voting for BO. There were a few Edward fans though. I will keep you posted as I check the major papers daily.

I just heard on MSNBC that all of the BO got all of the 24 delegates in Maine. How can that be?

hmmm, u billiary supporters (u know who u are) are really having a hard time accepting reality. i know you all had a bad weekend and it looks like you gonna have a bad month.... my suggestion to u is stop the whining and stop being a cry baby. its over for biliiary! and if u choose not to vote for obama who cares we will just find new voters to replace you. and we will find new voters to replace the blue collar and southern white red-necks that wont vote for obama because of his skin color. every prez election at least 50 percent of eligible voters dont even vote. we will convince enough of them to vote obama which means u can take your bat and ball and go home, and pout, and not vote at all or vote mccain, it will not matter. all cry baby billiary supporters that wont vote for obama will be replaced!!!!

Linda: What is up with Feingold? Any idea which way he is leaning? Or if he even plans to endorse?

Another rude, crude, and racist message from John R that is absolutely guaranteed to turn Clinton supporters into Obama lemmings.

You must work for the Clinton campaign since you are making the Obama campaign look so bad.

Ally Feingold may or may not endorse depending on the paper you read. Same for Kohl. Rep. Baldwin is on her side and she has a good standing in the state and in Washington. Our gov. is a jerk!!

Patsi for your sister (and others); letter from USAF Gen. Merrill McPeak, USAF Maj. Gen. Gration, and Richard Danzig, Navy Secretary 1998-2001.

NOTE also that Obama and James Webb, former Navy Secretary and current Virginia senator, are very close.

On Obama's patriotism:

" ... Senator Obama’s attackers are peddling lies and smears because they disagree with his strong opposition to the war in Iraq and the rush to war in Iran. They know that as President, Barack Obama will
end the ugly, divisive, slash-and-burn style of politics that they have mastered. To all those trying
desperately to discredit Senator Obama’s patriotism, take it from us: we have served this nation for
decades, and we know a true patriot when we see one. Barack Obama is a patriot."

http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/GeneralPledgeLetter.pdf

Wisconsin has had some great senators
My personal favorite in Gaylord Nelson

Haha corey, I remember that cartoon, major fan of Warner Bros cartoon. And yes, Bugs was gay!

jamie, my comments were really directed at u! quit whining and stop being a cry baby. and we wont miss ur vote :)

Jamie,

Whats with the Republicans in your state. How long does it take to count Republican votes? There can't be that many of them. I wonder are they having trouble counting past 3?
I love Josh Marshals comment on Boss Hog

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177867.php

Jack

johnr

better be careful cheeto dust can explode

LOL
You people are just having too much fun with these sock puppets.

Jack

Republican Rats : "Why are so many Republicans touting Barack Obama? It started with Karl Rove, then Peter Wehner, then David Brooks, and now Peggy Noonan. Sorry, but the scent of rat is getting more intense. Others are smelling it too. David Seaton: In today's Wall Street Journal, she joins such arch-conservative pundits as George Will and David Brooks in praising Barack Obama and favoring him for the Democratic nomination.

... .. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to smell a rat here.

To me it's perfectly obvious that the right wing is licking their chops in anticipation at facing Obama. ... .. I think it would be childlike to believe that Karl Rove hasn't done his homework already.. They are drooling in anticipation.

Why do they "like" Obama so much?

Because they are terrified of Hillary Clinton, that's why. ..."
http://www.taylormarsh.com/

Last item on Obama and emails re being unpatriotic (I promise!) for Patsi's sister, or whomever.

From St. Petersburg Times: Email Assailing Obama's Patriotism Misses the Mark

"...But the Time magazine photograph wasn't taken during the Pledge of Allegiance; it was taken during the singing of The Star-Spangled Banner.

The attack on Obama is the latest in a growing trend: e-mails forwarded to thousands or even millions of people with falsehoods about presidential candidates. Another recent e-mail attacked Hillary Clinton for "refusing to meet" with Gold Star Mothers even though she has met with them several times.

The Obama photo was taken ... at the Harkin Steak Fry.... The caption on the Time photo says Obama and the others "stand during the national anthem."

[Photo shows Obama with hands clasped before him, Richardson and Clinton with hands over hearts]

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/11/09/Worldandnation/E_mail_assailing_Obam.shtml

====
That is the last word from me on Patsi's request, and thank you for your patience. Note that Sen Clinton has also been branded -- falsely -- as not meeting with Gold Star mothers.

After the South Carolina debacle, i wrote to the Clinton campaign via myspace. The Obama people have done incredible work utilizing MySpace! There are daily posting bulletins about events, announcements on buying t-shirts, bumper stickers and the like, and then they created separate Obama myspaces for each state and asked each supporter to sign up on that state's Obama space. I asked the Clinton team why they were not also utilizing MySpace better as an organizing tool. Of course no answer. Current count of people on MySpace alone is 223,690,521. Surely this is a resource that the Clinton people ignored too much at their own peril. I can't even speak on Facebook or other online communities.

It is day and night. Clinton has her one MySpace place and Obama is state by state and even using myspace to get people to vote for online polls such as the MySpace Impact awards, or voters' preferences. I may be wrong, but you know, I gotta hand it to Mr. Obama and his team. They are going where the people are. I still am for Hillary, but if she doesn't win, I rather agree with Craig's analysis... "you can't reap what you didn't sow".

One more thing, it annoys me that no one wrote back. Ok, that's it... if you're gonna flame me, be kind :-)

GORDO: you are not exactly my go to guy for incisive, objective thinking.

McCain the real enemy Go Democrats!

http://www.americablog.com/2008/02/you-saw-obama-video-now-watch-mccain.html

CT

LOL good one

Jack

Jack,

If you look up thread a bit, the Republicans are waiting for the Primary. Their party decided to base part of their delegate count on the caucus and another part on the primary. The primary doesn't happen until February 19

I am getting tired of everything that folks say is being interpreted as racially coded. Blue collar has ling been used as a term. It is not racist to say black people vote for Obama in significant numbers of women vote for Clinton.

I happen to be a black , female business owner who will vote for Clinton. Enough of looking for fires where there is no smoke.

concern troll, lol

In case you still haven't purchased your Valentine's Day cards:

http://net.gop.com/valentine/

Ally -- Continuing On the Washington primary/caucus hybrid. I'm sure the primary results will be public information after it's held on the 19th. The GOP will use the results to pick 51% of thier delegates. DEMs used the caucuses to allocate 100% of their delegates so I don't know how the results would matter, unles to guide the SDs in which candidate they support.

mornin' all.

Craig - great analysis - funny, I didn't hear Mathews or Buchanan analyze the ground game that way, and Mika couldn't say shakeup in the Clinton campaign enough times this morning. She needed and extra 10 seconds every minute to get in those digs. As usual - your analysis is more in line with what I'd call incisive than the other pundits out there.

I'm not sure whether it was Mathews or Buchanan this moring (or could it have been Chuck Todd?) who siad the the dem race will hinge on PA. IMHO, I think they are wrong. I believe if there is one state the dem race willhinge on, it's Ohio. PA isn't really a swing state now in my estimation - I don't see it going for the Repugs in Nov (although my predictions in the past have been nothing if not inconsistently right and wrong). I think Ohio is a must have state that could go either way, and the superdelegates - and it looks more and more like they are going to decide who the nominee is - will be voting for the candidate they believe will deliver the big states and the swing states. For once in a great while, I agree with Mathews - HIllary has a slight edge to win the nomination and the election. But then again, I support her, so I would agree with him on that, wouldn't I.

I couldn't go back and catch up on the weekend comments - this site has become way too active for that - but I did take a look at the comments from early Friday evening.

Warren, WADR, the Shuster comment was indeed sexist - if Chelsea had been Chuck, the comment wouldn't be considered nearly as offensive because pimping isn't normally associated with male prostitution - even young males. And if it had been made about Michelle Obama, the Obamites would have called for Shuster's head. And if you think no one in the Obama camp is calling superdelegates to try and lobby them to support Barack, you are much more naive than I think you are. They are probably considering going to unlisted numbers by now.

Fry, I saw your Friday comment in response to my question - kind of what I figured. This must be pretty amusing to you. Do you think Huckleberry is staying in to try and pull down the VP slot, or is he just doing this to keep the Repub contest in the news through August?

Brian, your comment about the "Totuous" and the Hare has me rolling in the floor. I assume that was an intended pun. This campaign in nothing if not tortuous. What you call hubris is what I call campaign strategy (with which I only partially agree by the way). Hillary'scampaign is looking at the existing delegate and electoral pictures and campaigning based upon them. Why can you trust her to win in November? Because she knows where the electoral votes are, which states have to be carried to win, and has kicked ass in those states. With all his superior grass roots organizing, Obama is still only tied with Clinton in delegate votes (although I concede that he has aboout 60 more pledged delegates at this point), and popular votes. I contend that acting as if you are steamrolling to the nomination when you are virtually tied, based largely on winning small states that aren't going to come into your column in November is incredibly arrogant, which is my biggest problem with the Obama campaign - it's much more arrogant than it has any right to be basedupon the results thus far and the factthat neither candidate yet has even half of the delegates needed to win the nomination. You can trust her to focus her resources where they will yield the biggest results.

ladyeagle, there is nothing wrong with being a minority oops i mean being in the minority lol u should feel proud being in the 10 percent AA diehards still voting for billiary. however ur vote is wasted because billiary is finished! the only thing thats remaing to do at billiary political funeral is the closing prayer :)

dog's eye -- Thanks for that Wash Post link! That is GREAT!

ET

Part of the problem with My Space and Facebook may be the natural Clinton demographic. Speaking for myself, I really, really don't like using either. Just signing up means you will be absolutely innundated with junk emails. Now I know how to get rid of the phishers and viagra ads, but I would guess that a good number of Hillary supporters are asking their kids and grandkids for help.

I think Lord Voldemort's kid brother is in this chat

Tom Daschle is organizing the super delegate lobbying for the Obama campaign.

I don't get junk mails or spams via My Space... The messages that HIllary could send out would be only to people who signed up as her friend.

Oh and Jamie, congratulations for being quoted in Craig's column today. I feel like I am friends with a sort of celebrity. xoxoxox

TEMPERAMENT: Unlike his rival, Obama has never experienced a tough campaign _ and it shows at times. Remember when he said in New Hampshire that Clinton was "likable enough"? It grated on female voters. He needs to avoid looking rude, crabby or cocky. His friends would tell you that's not always easy for him.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2004167029_apondeadlinesupertuesday06.html

Purely reflective celebrity Tom :)

He's a famous political commentator and my state was the most recent.

Thanks for the military connection, dog's eye -- that will be fantastic....

Tom Daschle is a great progressive. He really impressed the people of South Dakota by saying he really lived in Washington DC and then still asked them to support him. LOSER! He was such a weak wanker when he was majority leader. Like Tom Foley as Speaker. These guys were not tough... too much "practical politics"

Why does Daschle hate Hillary?

Tom,

The junk mail doesn't come from My Space it comes from the bots that pick up your home email. I started playing Scrabulous on Facebook with friends and my regular inbox was on the receiving end of more than 100 a day, till I finally got them all cleaned out.

Glad it was helpful Patsi. Your sister sounds like a good person.

Gary Bauer just endorsed McBush.

Lordy, is John R the new face of theYoung Democrats?

For those anti war folks who missed it, an Obama rep on MSNBC just changed his position (with a whole lot of hemming and hawing) to Clinton's.

Basically, no "Commander In Chief" can absolutely guarantee immediate removal because he has to consider the well being of the troops and conditions on the ground.

Isn't that what the lady has been saying from the beginning of this campaign?

The Best Pollsters
SurveyUSA posts a "report card" on the most active pollsters during the presidential primaries.

Most Accurate:

SurveyUSA
Gallup
Research 2000
Quinnipiac
Strategic Vision
Least Accurate:

Los Angeles Times
American Research Group
Mason-Dixon http://www.politicalwire.com/

Oh but I heard that is the case of facebook, but I haven't seen it on MySpace...

Typo pogo! And pogo if Hillary can't pull off a blue collar state like Maine I have little faith in her being able to win a general. The other 3 states i can see her losing to Barack, but out of the 4 this weekend she should have taken Maine.

Another thing, while Hillary and many other are quick to claim that Barack won because he does better at caucus what people fail to mention is the state wide polls were mirrored in the caucus/primary results. 3 months ago Hillary held double digit leads in most of the polls in these states, since then the polls have completely flipped. It's not the caucus process that is winning for Barack, it's Barack winning!

the big problrm with the dem party is this stupid proportional delagate distribution.......if these primaries were winner take all we would be talking about super delagates ........now we have a mathematical impossibility of neither haviving 2025 delagates by the last primary on june 6th.........winner take alll primaries and no caucuses would be the best way to go .......yesterday they caucused for 6 hrs....how many people will give up that much time ....older people wont caucus ....half cant get to the caucus and half wont sit for 5-6 hours ......the dems always cause their own problems thats why the dems only had one president in the last 27 years

" Your sister sounds like a good person."

She's a pistol, dog's eye....she was ready to abandon the Repub party (she's of the Rockefeller Repub type)...then decided to stay and fight it out against the right wing nuts trying to take over.

jamie - I made the mistake of participating in zogby surveys back in the fall - my inbox got inundated within a couple of days with ads for everytihing from Baby Gap to Viagra, and although we can block from addresses and domains, those morphed automatically and it took me and the IT guys over a month to get those damn things blocked. Our IT guys suggested setting up a hotmail or Yahoo mail account to use for surveys, etc. Word to the wise who become bot vicitms.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/american_research_group-wisconsin-polls-feb6to7.pdf

According to this poll Hillary is leading in WIs.

With either Facebook or MySpace, it takes a certain level of computer literacy that might be difficult for people who may have trouble responding to the "You've Got Mail" voice from AOL. :-)

two presidents zumper. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton

Just a thought: it seems the Obama supporters are quick at "counting the chickens"... if you know what I mean. They basically think this thing is over. Time will tell, but such arrogance can certainly backfire.

Oban is a good scotch. And I promise I did not select this because of the similarity to ... well you know.

I bought a bottle for my friend many years ago as a house-warming gift.

jamie
reagan in 1980 since then only clinton ....1980 *2007
thats 27 years right

Not arrogance, just the facts. Obama is running a better campaign.

Zumper: I cannot stand winner take all primaries. Revolting. Proportional sounds much more fair.

Patsi: good luck to your sister. Have great compassion for Rockefeller Repubs and other GOP swimming against the lunatics that have overtaken that party.

I think GOP's best outcome would be loss of the White House and several years in the wilderness to think about how they went from White House and both houses of Congress to a president with a lingering 30% approval rating whom most of the world detested.

(I really think an Obama victory would be helpful to those GOP years in the wilderness, as the nutcases would redirect their well-practiced fire at the new Pres. Clinton rather than reflect on how a black man with a foreign-sounding middle name who was not widely known before he announced his candidacy trumped their war hero and friendly media outlets.)

But do the GOP conservatives ever deserve a long hiatus.

Who Are They?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSLvcJ4I1mw

Zumper

Reagan/Bush 1981 - 1988
Bush/Quayle 1989 - 1992
Clinton/Gore 1993 - 2000
Bush/Cheney 2001 - 2008

That is 8 years for Clinton
20 years for Bush

Try not to lump them together.

I wish I could hang at the Edwards' house today, I'd love to hear those conversations he's going to be having with both Hillary and Obama. Easy to imagine scenarios where he endorses either one.

a good obama ad

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid353515028/bctid1410389960

Jack

good morning gang....

Blonde wino.... I understand.... I'm working a lot lately.... good thing I'm disciplined.... I work for myself and could easily spend too much time here.... (well... actually... sometimes I have....)

dog..... Rick really likes the 2 Glens...... Glenlivet and Glenfiddich.... I buy the 18yr ones for him...... the last bottle I bought was Glenlivet and the 18 yr was around $65....

Craig..... nice analysis as usual.....

Just in case there's anyone in the Muslim world who still likes us, Bush wants to EXECUTE 6 Gitmo prisoners.

You know. the people who have no lawyers, who have been tortured, who will be tried by "military tribunals" (farcical proceedings that don't even resemble fair trials).

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/us/11gitmo.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

See when I read John R's venomous sh*t posts here, I just once again makes me NEVER ever want to vote for Obama. Talk about how NOT to make friends and influence people.

Brian: I think Obama has it in the bag. Between his campaign workers and his wife, everything points to BO.

Yuck scotch, I'm a Jack Daniels or Tequila man.

brian
thats why we have this problem....obama won seven contests and we still have a virtual tie.......if he wins all 3 tomorrow the most he will add to his total will be irrevelent ....if HRC wins texas ohio and penn she will have a slight lead .....we cannot have a winner by denver.,...and then the cival war will erupt ,,,,not physically but verbally abd divisions in the party will last for years no matter who comes out on top...........remember the saying "united we stand, divided we fall'

John R. is not the face of the new Democrats. He sounds like someone used to the slash-and-burn politics of the past who is now trying to use those same tactics to support Obama.

Ally I think Obama has the Edwards endorsement too, but Hillary's health plan could be a justification for Edwards endorsing her.

zumper

If what you see so far is making you mad just look at the Texas primary rules.
Reform anyone ?

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/texass_unique_primaucus.php

Has anyone else been watching MSNBC today? I may just have mellowed out, but I would guess there was a severe talking to for staff other than Schuster.

The constant Clinton attack machine seems to have had its volume turned down if not completely off.
MoJo not around and Mika whose (daddy works for Obama) a shade less nagging, The reporter/anchors are asking more straight forward rather than leading questions and the guests are more fairly balanced from both campaigns rather than piling on with several Obama's in a row.

Let's see if it continues. Pretty was pretty bad when FOX was providing more accurate and balanced coverage.

Craig?

HuffPo (huffingtonpost.com) says Edwards is about to endorse....either Obama or Clinton.

I wonder what kind of deal he's going to get?
VP Plus...Cheney-like powers?

"I get to start ONE war, my choice, any country."
"And Bill gets sent to Antarctica to do a penguin count."

zumper I don't think Hillary is going to take Ohio, and if Obama wins one of the three you mentioned it's over for Hillary. Obama can survive losing all three and letting it go to the convention. Hillary can't afford to lose one. Folks fasten your seatbelt it's going to get nasty after tomorrow.

Ohio and it's rusty Democratic political machine
is currently polling in favor of Clinton.

Nash, I am a firm believer that the punishment should fit the crime. Does that mean death penalty? No, I don't think so... But I think a punishment that takes lives should result in a life sentence. You do the crime, you do the time. Something Belgium cannot figure you.

As for being hated throughout the world, Muslims are just one group that fits the description. GW sure has done a good job isolating America during his tenure as President. He should be proud.

Tom

Oh and Nash, I agree that no access to lawyers, and the use of "military tribunal" are both incredibly wrong. But remember, "America does not torture" ...

People
WE WONT HAVE A WINNER ....you people on both sides are dreamers if you think there not going to be a war over this nomination........we are heading for a crash ......the dem system has created this problem .....you win your own state and only gain 40 delagates ,,,,,,,he wins maine yesterday ....delagate count 14 -10.......after 7 wins ita a virtual tie and thats where it going to stay a tie ......those of you saying HRC or OBAMA has it in the bag are dreaming ...neither has it

Brian: I don't think that one issue is enough to take it out of Obama's hands. I don't know anyone willing to place a wager on Hilary getting the Edwards endorsement. I don't think I will be eating any crow this week!

Newspaper FAQs DISPATCH POLL
Clinton, McCain have edge in Ohio
Sunday, February 3, 2008 3:42 AM
By Darrel Rowland

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge
How the poll was conducted
The Dispatch Poll was based on returns from 2,156 registered Democratic voters and 2,139 registered Republican voters who say they intend to vote in Ohio's primary election on March 4.

The Dispatch obtained a computerized list of all registered voters in Ohio from the secretary of state. Those who had not voted since 2003 were eliminated. A Dispatch computer then randomly chose who would receive poll ballots, which included the names of all presidential candidates who qualified for the official Ohio ballot.

Voters receiving the ballots were asked to describe themselves by party affiliation, age, sex, race, education, income, religion, union membership and the candidates they voted for in the 2004 presidential contest and 2006 governor's race.

Ballots of different colors were mailed to various regions of the state so The Dispatch could ensure that each area was represented in proportion to its actual voting strength. The areas, patterned on groupings of the state's six major media markets, are: northeast (20 counties); central (20 counties); southwest (eight counties); northwest (12 counties); west central (14 counties); and southeast (14 counties).

The standard margin of sampling error in a poll of the size conducted by The Dispatch is plus or minus 2 percentage points in 95 out of 100 cases. This means that if a poll is conducted 100 times, in 95 cases the result will not vary by more than 2 percentage points from the result that would be obtained if all registered Democratic and Republican voters in Ohio were polled and responded. Error margins are greater for poll subsamples, such as female voters.

Like all polls, the Dispatch Poll is subject to possible error other than sampling error. Other sources of error include unintentional bias in the wording of questions, data entry error and nonresponse bias. Nonresponse bias means those who responded might not necessarily reflect the views of those who did not participate. The response rate for both Democrats and Republicans was 28 percent.

The poll was designed, conducted and financed solely by The Dispatch.
Barack Obama has convinced Iowa, South Carolina and even Teddy Kennedy.

But the Illinois senator has yet to make the sale in Ohio.

"Bush wants to EXECUTE 6 Gitmo prisoners."

He was getting bored. No death warrants to sign as Governor of Texas; things calming down to a mere 10 -50 Iraqis slaughtered each day. He was running out of the killing for fun feeling.

British study: political orientation is genetic.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/howie-klein/the-liberal-mind-vs-the-c_b_85898.html

Lot of time between now and March 4th KC, Obama has a very strong wind at his back

mash

ITS DELAGATES STUPID NOT STATES ....wow how thicked headed some of you are even if he wins ohio it wont be by much and degates will be split .....you need 2025 ...neither can reach with proportional primaries

Jamie

So is this MSNBC's new theme song?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ma8OhzFdIA

Jack

Zumper:

I agree we do not have a winner. And there is still a lot of work to do. But - who do you thinking is winning morehearts and minds right now? I know there has been no dent in the substantial Clinton base - thus there will never be a landslide despite the media hype - but I think the majority of people currently not in one of the two respective camps - are trending towards Obama.

Brian
whatever
Clinton has the support of the governor who is very popular and a lot of local Democratic officials
It looks more like California to me

First of all I really shouldn't be on here, however I want to make a quick comment.

nash...

I propose a new official Crawfordslist Acronym:

Please don't use the term that john r uses to describe Hillary. She is a Senator running for the Presidency. Please show her a little respect, don't be like john r or some of the others who lack respect for all people.

And if your unaware I am a Obama supporter, however this need not go into name calling.

Also I would like to suggest that everyone ignore john r if he can't be respectful of all the candidates. There's no reason to cause ill will among the Democratic nominee's and end up splitting the party.

Thank you and ...

God Bless.

Regarding Mika's old man advising Obama....

I couldn't stand Zbigniew Brzezinski (had to look up the spelling...) when he worked for Carter and I still can't. Wonder if he's still whining about George McGovern being a peacenik.....

Brian, shame it was a typo - it was a wonderful serendipitous one. I don't think you understand my point - her strategy is not to win small states with small electoral vote counts. Sheesh, Maine only had 3700 folks participate in the Dem caucuses there - the reps had more 2 weeks ago with only 68% of their precincts reporting. She isn't spending a lot of money in states like Maine with (in its case its solid Dem voting record - Dem in both 2000 & 2004) and 4 electoral votes. I don't expect to see much of her in WV, either - a comparable state to Maine demograhically, but with 5 electoral votes and it went Rep in '00 & '04) but let's talk about blue collar states in May after WV & OH primaries have been held. If Barack wins here and in OH, and I doubt that neither of the candidates will spend much here, I might buy what you're saying. Plus, even with Barack kicking her ass in Maine - he picked up exactly 4 more delegates than she did there. Quite the landslide.

Re: Politics and genes

Scientists ijn Britain have also identified the genetic defect that causes otherwise normal Democrats become Hillary people.

zumper.....
I agree with you.... Obama and Clinton are in a tie..... both will have a dogfight to the nomination.....

I'm torn between what I think of this..... on one hand... if it tears the party apart... it could easily mean another 4 yrs of a Republican in the WH....

on the other hand.... it means which ever one comes out of this with the nomination will be in a better position to fight the upcoming dogfight with the GOP in the general election.....

but, IMO.... the Dems will take back the WH only if we unite and back the eventual nominee..... no matter which one it is.....

nash, re: gitmo - good grief.

Also john r is more than likely a Republican Troll trying to cause dissent amongst the Democratic camps. I would put nothing past the Republicans.

God Bless.

Brian, sorry about the double negative - should have been

I doubt that either of the candidates will spend much here

Let's hope you are right anon....I hate to think of John r actually being a dem.

Pogo has she learned nothing from her fellow New Yawker Rudy. If you want to win you gotta play everywhere!

If John R's a Dem, he's got to be the Obama campaign's worst nightmare.

warrem
hearts and minds ....we need some one who can run this country .......he has no qualifications other than peoples hearts and minds.....wow we are in trouble if thats why people are voting for either side .......watch out for what you wish for ...