Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter
February 2008 Archives
It is actually funny to watch Republicans trying to boost Barack Obama's bid for the Democratic nomination. Does anyone really believe that President George W. Bush and GOP nominee-to-be John McCain are doing everything possible to aggravate and energize Democratic primary voters who support Obama because they would rather run against Hillary Rodham Clinton?
They are smart enough to know that bashing a Democrat is the best way to make sure that Democrats vote for that person -- and that the news media interprets the attack as a sign of Clinton's weakness.
But at the same time, McCain and Bush are preparing the battlefield in case Obama does win the nomination.
Ah, it must be nice to get the jump ball.
Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams"
Thursday (2/28) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST
Texas Rep. Ron Paul and Ohio Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich are ceding the presidential campaign's maverick role to Ralph Nader as both conentrate on keeping their House seats in primary elections on Tuesday. The Texas and Ohio primaries might have been a big homecoming for Paul and Kucinich if their White House bids had gotten anywhere. Instead, they each need to make sure that their hometowns still want them. And Paul is taking pains to demonstrate his local allegiances by flatly ruling out an independent presidential candidacy as he changed gears from a national run to holding on to his district.
• Primary Forces Paul to Defend Home Base While Pursuing National Platform
• Kucinich Campaigning Hard to Retain Seat
• Ron Paul Sharing The Political Wealth With Like-Minded Candidates
Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams"
Thursday (2/28) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST
Neither Democratic presidential candidate seemed to completely grasp the name of the incoming president of Russia during their debate on Tuesday.
Give Hillary Rodham Clinton credit for at least mumbling Dmitry Medvedev's last name, although she appeared unsure whether she had gotten it right. Barack Obama did not even try to name Medvedev, although he echoed Clinton's observation that the new Russian leader is President Vladimir Putin's hand-picked successor.
That is not the sort of flub that will matter this week. But it sure could make a difference if something like that happened in the general election debates against Republican nominee-to-be John McCain, who has recently talked about Medvedev by name and at length.
But at least Obama or Clinton have plenty of time to memorize the names of foreign leaders before taking on McCain in a debate.
CQ Politics Debate Bests and Mosts
Tonight they do such an unusual thing on American Idol – they let the voters decide who wins. That is NOT how it works in the Democratic presidential nomination race, where the news media decides who wins before the voters have had their say. Which is why I’ll be watching “American Idol” on Fox. Still, our Trailmixers are welcome to offer their thoughts in Comments.
Democrats are feeling quite confident about a nifty-sounding new strategy for connecting the war in Iraq to economic problems at home. The idea is to blast Republicans for the war’s cost. But both of the Democratic nomination contenders repeatedly voted to spend that money.
A coalition of anti-war groups on Monday launched a $20 million campaign to convince voters that spending for the war is draining the economy and creating what the coalition calls the Iraq Recession. And they have already released their first advertisement, a direct hit against Republican nominee-to-be John McCain.
There could be a bit of a snag in these efforts to attack McCain and the GOP for passing what the coalition calls “blank check funding bills.” The Democratic Party’s remaining rivals for the nomination both voted for the same funding bills that McCain did.
While Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton did vote for failed Senate bills to set timetables for ending the war, they did not vote against any of the spending measures that kept the war going exactly as President George W. Bush wanted it to go. And in the year since Democrats won control of Congress the funding has continued without a break.
It sure would be easier for Democrats to make the “Iraq Recession” argument stick if they had a nominee who actually voted against it.
It is dizzying to watch Hillary Rodham Clinton’s many tactical reversals. In just the past several days she has veered from a conciliatory closing statement at the Feb. 21 Democratic presidential debate to angry and sarcastic attacks on Barack Obama that are tougher than anything she's tried so far.
Why this longstanding pattern of stark reversals? A top Democratic operative for a former candidate explains that Clinton hired a slew of consultants and as each one struck out she would call up another from the bench. "Trouble is,” he said, “they’ve all struck out.”
The chaos in Clinton’s rotating roster of message gurus is best evidenced by the lack of coherent segues between the tactical changes. “That’s because no one has really been over-viewing the thing to make sure that each tactic fit into a strategy,” the Democratic operative said. “But the danger for Obama now is that she might find the right formula even though it’s getting late -- because now she’s willing to try anything.”
He’s older than John McCain, more liberal than Hillary Rodham Clinton and offers way more change than Barack Obama.
Ralph Nader announced on Sunday that he will run again for president. The perennial candidate is as easy to dismiss as he is to fear – if you’re a Democrat. He won more than 2.8 million votes nationwide in the 2000 race, and many Democrats will never give up believing that he threw the election to George W. Bush.
Nader would not have done this had John Edwards stayed in the running for the Democratic nomination. The two share much in common, not the least of which is Nader’s longstanding alliance with trial lawyers who have politically sustained Edwards, a former trial lawyer.
We could be witnessing why Obama should have tried a little harder to court Edwards. And why the Democratic frontrunner should not have dissed Nader, as Al Gore did eight years ago.
The spoiler is back.
Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Monday
(2/25) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:29 AM EST
Barack Obama is gingerly showing signs of awareness that he needs a bit of substance in his swagger, adding a few more specifics to stump speeches and dispatching more policy advisers for interviews.
Why get into the details now that he is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination? Perhaps because his savvy campaign handlers see a need to shore him up against empty-suit jokes.
It's the sort of narrative you want to head off before late-night comics get involved. And one that got a start last night on NBC's "Saturday Night Live" with an opening sketch portraying Obama as a shallow smooth-talker mesmerizing gullible reporters.
Both Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain are hammering away at the all-hat-no-cattle argument against Obama. Letting that image take hold could even turn his talent against him, converting his moving speeches into disturbing reminders that there might be nothing more to him.
But Obama can be a thoughtful and detail-oriented policy wonk. Several times last year in Iowa and New Hampshire town halls I watched his own supporters yawn as he plowed the issue weeds.
Perhaps Obama needs to revive those sleepy performances now and then. A long and boring policy speech once a week would probably be enough to make the emptiness go away.
Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Monday
(2/25) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:29 AM EST
John McCain sure proved that he knows how to counter punch in his dust-up with the New York Times over the newspaper’s reporting on his dealings with lobbyists. It could have been a story that seriously undercut his image as a reformer and put off the conservative values crowd with its thinly-veiled allegations of adultery.
Instead, the McCain team, which has known for months that the Times was on the case, executed a well-planned response that focused on making the newspaper the issue and distracting the public from the report's details about the Arizona senator's apparent conflicts of interest in his lobbyist dealings.
Once the dust settled a bit, conservatives were not only indulging their predilection to rally against the New York Times, but the incident seems to be rallying them to McCain’s side in ways that he had not been able to do on his own.
One of McCain’s biggest problems with Republican conservatives was how they viewed him as too cozy with the liberal media. What better way to dispel that notion than to get into a nasty fight with the newspaper they see as the Vatican of liberalism.
Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Monday
(2/25) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:29 AM EST
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Was it the awkward handshake at the end or the half-hearted delivery of scripted attack lines that made Hillary Rodham Clinton come across as the one conceding the race in the Democratic presidential debate on Thursday?
Surprisingly, Clinton showed no signs of a combatant who had come to change the game against Barack Obama. For instance, when served a softball question about Obama’s past vows to unconditionally meet with enemy dictators, Clinton mostly passed on the easy opportunity to press her campaign’s recent effort to portray her rival us unequipped to manage foreign policy.
CQ Politics: Debate Bests and Mosts
Perhaps Clinton is coming around to the view that some in her own camp hold – that Obama’s nomination is inevitable but that his victory in November is not. By easing into a gracious exit strategy, Clinton would hope to be in shape to pick up the pieces if Democrats lose the general election under Obama.
Or maybe the Clinton camp believes that debates are not the place to tear into Obama – and some other tactic is in the works. Either way, in this debate Clinton chose against an aggressive and sustained effort to win ugly.
PollTracker: Dem Race in Texas a Tie
Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Monday
(2/25) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:29 AM EST
They're eliminating two women and two men on American Idol tonight, so it's a tough call. But surely during breaks we can figure out whether anyone is eliminated tonight in the Democratic debate. Join us in Comments for the discussion . . .
Double-click screen to watch
(Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)
In the News:
- For McCain, Self-Confidence On Ethics Poses Its Own Risks (New York Times): "A female lobbyist had been turning up with him [John McCain] at fund-raisers, visiting his offices and accompanying him on a client’s corporate jet. Convinced the relationship had become romantic, some of his top advisers intervened to protect the candidate from himself."
- News Networks Bump Clinton Out of Picture (Washington Post, Howard Kurtz): "Craig Crawford, a Congressional Quarterly columnist, said the networks had no choice but to cut away from Clinton Tuesday night after Obama forced the issue. 'That was a definite violation of the etiquette of these election night dramas, where people take turns giving their speeches and don't step on each other,' he said. 'When you break a rule like that, it's a very hostile gesture.'
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s options in the Democratic presidential race are dwindling down to winning ugly or losing pretty. Although nowhere close to a guarantee of success, going ugly against Barack Obama appears to be about the only option for her to stop his momentum. And word from Clinton camp today suggests that she will do just that – this time trying to portray him us unprepared to be commander in chief.
Losing pretty is Clinton’s other option. Stay focused on the positive. Talk only about her own agenda and step aside if Obama keeps the delegate lead. Under this scenario Clinton is positioned to pick up the pieces and rally the party if Obama loses the general election as the Democratic nominee. But Clinton could be sacrificing that chance if she fails to win the nomination after savaging Obama – in that case she would get the worst of both worlds, losing ugly.
Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams"
Wednesday (2/20) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST
John McCain has the luxury of time for devising a plan and a message if he is to run against Barack Obama, but so far the Republican nominee-to-be is trotting out the same themes that are not working for Hillary Rodham Clinton.
For an entire year Clinton has played the experience card in her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, but it turns out that a lot of voters are not interested in resumes.
McCain on Tuesday night used his victory in the Wisconsin GOP primary to take a Clintonian shot at Obama’s youthful innocence. “I'm not the youngest candidate. But I am the most experienced," McCain, 71, said in an obvious, although unnamed, reference to the 46-year-old Obama, who handily won on the Democratic side of Wisconsin's primary.
McCain then echoed the other argument that Clinton has so far unsuccessfully used against Obama, belittling him as a smooth talker who lacks substance. “I will fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change.”
If Obama is beatable as a Democratic nominee, McCain will need better ammunition than Clinton’s talking points -- because hers are not working.
Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams"
Wednesday (2/20) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST
Precincts Reporting 91%
Clinton 41%
Democratic presidential frontrunner Barack Obama’s commanding lead in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary prompted the Associated Press to refer to his opponent as the “fading” Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Although Clinton did not campaign in the state until the last several days, her team used Wisconsin as a last-minute test market for several attacks on Obama in hopes of settling upon a winning strategy against him. But his lopsided margin – a 17-point lead with 91 percent of the precincts reporting – suggests that Clinton must keep trying if she is to find a way to stop his momentum before the March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio.
CQ Politics: McCain Wins Wisconsin, Launches Barbs at Obama
Other than watching Lee Harvey Oswald shot live on television, my earliest political memories involve being taught in school to hide under my desk to avoid Fidel Castro’s bombs. But my Dad eased my worries by observing, perhaps imagining, that Russia’s long-range missles, if launched from Cuba, would fly over our heads in Florida -- and land well north of our position. It made sense in the moment. Still, growing up in Florida gives one a special concern about Castro. His leaving gives us pause. As a fierce supporter of my home state, I can only say that I prefer to see Cuba remain in Communist isolation, as I fear its threat to our business interests in citrus, sugar and tourism.
The Democratic presidential rivals have played so many head fakes and other gambits to lower expectations for their performance in today’s Wisconsin primary that we might have to decide on a winner the old fashioned way – give it to the one with the most votes.
Ah, if it were that easy. Will the perceived winner be the one with the most popular votes or the most delegates? Of course, if either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama decisively wins both categories it would be easy to pick a victor, right?
Well, sort of. The Clinton camp will still lay a claim on being the perceived winner if she loses by less than expected – whatever that is. Obama’s team has also made an effort in this regard, repeatedly noting that he is at a disadvantage because Wisconsin’s blue collar demographics favor Clinton.
Maybe we should try averaging each candidate’s percentage of the popular vote and percentage of the delegate count for a winning score. Or just give up in a tight race, declare a tie and move on.
If a new Texas poll has it right, Hillary Rodham Clinton's hoped-for comeback on March 4 is in serious jeopardy. A CNN survey finds Clinton at 50 percent and Barack Obama at 48 percent for the Texas Democratic primary, a dead heat well within the poll's margin of error. But roughly 25 percent of voters said they might change their minds. More on CQ Politics PollTracker
Anything that close in Texas would be a disaster for Clinton. If she only narrowly wins the popular vote, Obama’s commanding lead among African-American voters could give him the edge in delegates. That is because state party rules award delegates within each state senate district -- and award more delegates to districts, such as those with large black populations, where voters historically turn out in greater numbers for Democrats.
Clinton is counting on her lead among Hispanic voters for a boost, but in recent years their turnout has been low, depressing the number of delegates allocated to their districts.
Losing the delegate race in Texas would not only overshadow a slim lead in the popular vote for Clinton. It would severely undermine her bid to win unelected “superdelegates” who are likely to be the swing vote in the nomination battle.
The news media’s long-awaited scrubbing of Barack Obama’s concrete plans for governing has begun and, not surprisingly, it doesn't take long. The Democratic presidential contender’s famously inspirational speeches offer little sustenance for wonks.
In a rare and much-heralded policy address last week, Obama attempted to get specific on economics but the details turned out to be so reminiscent of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s proposals that an aide to Republican nominee-to-be John McCain stepped in to cry foul. “He basically took Clinton's words and Clinton's policies and called them his own,” McCain economic advisor Kevin Hassett said.
Obama’s supporters and advisers refer pesky policy inquiries to the campaign web site, but it is difficult to connect the dots between this internet data dump and a candidate whose public comments reveal little evidence that he has read it himself. As Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, an Obama fan, concluded after examining the web site, “I'm still puzzled about where to locate Obama on this policy map.”
No one expects Obama to use every opportunity to wade through the policy thicket that Clinton seems to enjoy navigating in her often mind-numbing stump speeches. The Illinois senator apparently intends to be a motivational president who stays above the fray. But on the stump he provides little guidance to the occasional voter who might be curious about exactly what he would do as president.
Politically speaking, it is probably true that Obama does not need to sweat the policy details. He has so far made it to the brink of success in the Democratic race without specifics. Instead, his admiring crowds appear content to chant “Yes We Can” without bothering to finish the sentence.
While Democratic presidential candidates play bumper cars and a Republican nominee-in-waiting runs victory laps, there is another campaign worth watching -- the fight for CONTROL OF CONGRESS.
And we’ve got the map to the stars right here -- a regularly updated look at Capitol Hill's balance of power: CQ Politics Election Map
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Gallup Reports Obama's First National Lead Outside Margin of Error
For several days, nationwide Democratic voters' preferences have been shifting toward Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily election tracking. Now, the Illinois senator enjoys his first statistically significant lead, 49% to 42%, over Hillary Rodham Clinton (Undecided: 7%; MoE: ±3 pts) according to the Feb. 13-15 results. (More Polls on CQ Polltracker)
No matter who wins the Democratic presidential nomination, back-room deals seem likely to make the difference and hand Republicans a rhetorical opportunity to portray Democrats as undemocratic.
Right now, neither side in this race sees a clear path to a nominating majority without relying on so-called superdelegates -- and some of those 796 party insiders are determined to wait as long as possible to make a fateful choice between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Worried party elders are already meeting behind closed doors to work something out.
Both contenders have long known it might come to this. That’s why they gave a combined total of nearly $1 million in campaign contributions to elected officials who are superdelegates, according to a study done by the Center for Responsive Politics. Obama led the way with $698, 200 doled out to unpledged convention delegates who could decide the outcome. Clinton trails at $205,500 in superdelegate giving.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Friday that superdelegates should not “overturn the verdict, the decision of the American people.” But a razor-thin margin of difference in delegate totals would mean no overwhelmingly clear verdict from Democratic primary voters.
If Clinton and Obama end up with a photo finish in delegates that yields no winning majority for either side, unelected and unpledged superdelegates will basically have to break a tie. And supporters for the losing candidate will surely argue that democracy failed in the Democratic Party.
Either John McCain is out there just shooting from the hip because he figures that a presumed party nominee can do whatever he wants – or, the Republican hopeful is cleverly gaming the other side to pick the easier candidate for him to beat.
Why else would the Arizona senator go after Barack Obama on everything from economics to the Iraq War in the last few days? While bashing liberals helps consolidate conservatives in his own party, McCain also knows that attacking Obama as too liberal could drive the Democratic faithful to cast primary votes for the Illinois senator.
McCain might even want to borrow a page from Richard Nixon’s playbook in 1972, when the president’s reelection campaign dispatched its dirty-tricks squad to help George McGovern win the Democratic nomination. The Nixon team figured that McGovern would be the easiest to beat.
Short of dirty tricks, McCain can at least do Obama a favor in the primaries by acting as though the Democratic contender is already his general-election foe.
Nobody knows what November brings, but at the starting gate it is a neck-and-neck race between Republican John McCain and either of the remaining Democratic contenders in three bellwether states for the general election:
McCain 41 percent - Obama 39 percent
McCain 42 percent - Obama 40 percent
Obama 42 percent - McCain 41 percent
-- source: Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll (Feb. 14)
Florida and Michigan. Just say their names and both provoke near apoplectic responses from Democrats on either side of the escalating debate over whether to let two of the nation’s biggest swing states attend the party's national convention.
Both states leapfrogged the authorized primary calendar, provoking the Democratic National Committee to abolish their voting power at the nominating convention this summer. Civil rights groups such as the NAACP are mobilizing to defend the states.
Democratic frontrunner Barack Obama vehemently opposes convention voting rights for Florida and Michigan. As the party nominee he would need to devote precious general-election campaign time to reviving Democratic hopes in both states.
The Florida/Michigan debate falls into a simple frame: Those who favor Hillary Rodham Clinton want the states to be counted because the New York senator carried both primaries. Obama backers oppose seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan because Clinton won both states (Obama had his name taken off the ballot in Michigan).
Reverse the consequences and each side would be switching to the other. All the more reason to ignore what the candidates add to this discussion. Still, only Clinton is defending Florida and Michigan in this fight, giving her an advantage in both if she is the party's standard bearer. Her husband, Bill Clinton, is scheduled to be in the state next week.
National Democrats might own the high ground when it comes to the righteousness of punishing Florida and Michigan for ignoring party rules. But sticking to the rules could cost Democrats the support of both states in November.
John McCain’s outreach to conservatives got a boost on Wednesday as House Republican leaders fell in line behind his inevitable presidential nomination.
The Arizona senator’s winning trifecta in the Beltway primaries on Wednesday increases pressure on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to get out of the way and give McCain the space to consolidate power within GOP ranks.
If Huckabee presses on, he risks playing the spoiler at a moment when Republicans see an opportunity for McCain to exploit Democratic chaos and start making those all-important first impressions with general election voters.
For the first time in the longest presidential campaign ever, Hillary Rodham Clinton has undeniably lost frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.
Barack Obama’s sizable primary victories on Tuesday in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia put him out front for both pledged delegates and unpledged superdelegates at the party’s nominating convention this summer.
A new round of national polls showing the disappearance of Clinton’s once-hefty lead among Democrats also supports the notion that Obama is no longer the challenger, but the man to beat. Add his fundraising advantage and high-profile endorsements to the mix and you would think that Clinton might as well pack up the pantsuits and head back to Capitol Hill.
Indeed, a lesser foe might be shutting down in the face of such overwhelming Oba-MO, but the New York senator and her husband, Bill Clinton, are instead setting their sights for a comeback on March 4 in the Ohio and Texas primaries.
Sen. John McCain defeated former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in a closely fought Virginia GOP primary, while more easily beating his main rival in Maryland and the District of Columbia.
Obama To Gain Delegate Lead
On the Democratic side, Sen. Barack Obama handily defeated Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Virginia, Maryland and the DC, adding to his string of recent victories. More on cqpolitics.com
The general election landscape is hazy at best, but if you assume that John McCain runs against Barack Obama, expect Hispanic voters to potentially tip the balance to Republicans.
Latino voters have so far proven to be somewhat immune to Obama’s charisma. That deficiency showed itself in Nevada and California, and will be tested again soon in Texas.
McCain’s steadfast support for immigration reform is likely to earn him a receptive hearing from Hispanic voters in Southwestern states where Democrats had hoped to make gains in this election. And he showed remarkable strength among Cubans for the Jan. 29 primary in Florida -- a state that the Democrats have all but sacrificed in a self-destructive war over convention delegates.
Today’s Beltway primaries offer little measurement of Hispanic appeal on the Democratic side. Nor does Wisconsin, next Tuesday’s main event. The Texas primary on March 4 is the next and last chance for Obama to persuasively demonstrate potential strength among Latino voters.
When Clintons start whining, it is wise to resist taking it at face value. But these days the poor-mouthing from Hillary Rodham Clinton’s camp is on display as never before -- and being taken as seriously as ever.
On the eve of today’s Beltway Primaries, the New York senator’s team made something of a spectacle about a supposedly sudden staff "shakeup" that had actually been underway for weeks. And campaign aides are whispering to reporters that Clinton’s nomination hopes could be slipping away.
Last week it was Clinton’s spokesperson who revealed that she had loaned $5 million to her campaign, provoking a wave of ominous news accounts that ended up provoking a burst of $10 million in online contributions.
Funny how the prospect of imminent losses produce spates of Clintonian self-pity that often manage to rally just enough votes to survive.
This death-and-resurrection cycle played out in the last days before Clinton's comeback New Hampshire win. Her own staff was moping around as though the end was near. Whether or not by design, their apparent breakdown produced reports of impending defeat that rallied crucial, last-minute deciders to her side.
Once again, dejected Clinton aides are spinning doomsday scenarios. This time, they might be right. But their pain, whether real or manufactured, might also pave the way for another comeback down the road.
Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Tues (2/12) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:30 AM EST
John Edwards and Barack Obama postponed a planned endorsement meeting tonight in North Carolina. The official explanation was that a “scheduling conflict” arose, but the meeting fell apart as a result of the public spectacle created by leaks of the expected face-to-face between the former Democratic presidential rivals.
Last week, Hillary Rodham Clinton managed to ditch the press corps and privately meet with Edwards at his Chapel Hill home. Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth, are not eager to create a sensation of these private “interviews” aimed at deciding which of the two remaining candidates to endorse.
But word got out, resulting in a swarm of news media trucks and helicopters at the Edwards home. A few hours later the postponement was announced. Obama vowed to reschedule, telling reporters, "We're going to make it happen."
So why hasn’t John Edwards already endorsed Barack Obama? On the surface, the two Democrats are simpatico when it comes to railing against lobbyists and standing up to Hillary Rodham Clinton.
But something has happened to give Edwards pause since shutting down his own presidential bid. It might not have helped that Obama ungraciously stepped on Edwards’ withdrawal announcement, diverting the news media’s attention to his own speech at the very moment that his former foe was scheduled to go before the cameras.
Or, maybe Edwards is mulling over the details of his lengthy, policy-oriented telephone chat with Clinton after he dropped out. Could he be comparing that to the terse call from Obama, who was less interested in a wonky conversation, instead focusing on whether or not Edwards had decided to endorse?
Perhaps Edwards will be influenced by how Clinton honored his wishes to keep their recent private meeting out of the public eye. Contrast that with the public spectacle that the Obama camp is making of their candidate's meeting with Edwards.
Still, the odds ought to favor Edwards backing Obama, but the longer it takes the more obvious it becomes that something slowed it down.
Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Tues (1/12) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:30 AM EST
It is a bit late for change if Hillary Rodham Clinton’s staff shakeup has anything to do with her miserable grass-roots organizing effort for retail-oriented caucuses. That phase of the Democratic presidential race is just about finished.
Rival Barack Obama’s charisma accounts for some of his ability to roll over Clinton in caucuses that demand more time and devotion from voters than primaries do. But the Obama team also proved more adept at the organizing details required to get voters to the caucuses and help them know what to do once there.
Jamie, a Trail Mix Trailspotter in Washington State, filed this observation after caucusing for Clinton on Saturday:
“Obama simply had the best organization on the ground. Pick up the people at churches and deliver them. The Clinton folks had to get there on their own with little or no contact from the Clinton campaign other than one training session and an email to encourage attendance.”
Such reports from the field are common. The Clinton team’s strategy of focusing on big-state primaries makes sense, but that's no excuse for letting Obama outmaneuver them in caucus states.
G.O.T.V. Doesn't Mean "Get On TV"
It is tough to tell whether outgoing Clinton campaign chairman Patti Solis Doyle was directly responsible for these mistakes, but someone screwed up. Clinton finds herself in such an uncertain place because her top staff prioritized television advertising and other wholesale techniques over painstaking get-out-the-vote efforts in the field.
As one veteran Democratic field operative said, “If the Clinton campaign had spent less on hotels for fancy staff and more on organizing in states like Kansas or Colorado, they could have won another 50-100 delegates and would now be out of the woods.”
Jessica Benton Cooney, CQ Staff -- "Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the projected winner of Sunday’s Democratic presidential caucuses in Maine, according to the Associated Press and other media outlets. Obama dominated New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, sweeping all four states that held nominating events on the first weekend after Super Tuesday." More on cqpolitics.com
Huckabee's Super Saturday
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) -- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday, notching up another Southern victory in his bid to become the party's presidential candidate in the November general election.
- Huckabee Wins Kansas Caucuses
- Is Huckabee the Story? (Mother Jones)
Obama Victories Yield New Totals:
Clinton 1,095 -- Obama 1,070
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sen. Barack Obama swept the Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state Saturday night, slicing into Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's slender delegate lead in their historic race for the Democratic presidential nomination. In incomplete delegate allocations, Obama won 72, Clinton 40. In overall totals in The Associated Press count, Clinton had 1,095 delegates to 1,070 for Obama, counting so-called superdelegates (party leaders not chosen at primaries or caucuses, free to change their minds). A total of 2,025 delegates is required to win the nomination at the national convention in Denver.
Greg Giroux, CQ Staff -- "Illinois Sen. Barack Obama soundly defeated New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Saturday’s Democratic caucuses in Nebraska, one of four states that held Democratic contests four days after Obama and Clinton ended the “Super Tuesday” voting on Feb. 5 in a virtual dead heat. With about three-fourths of the vote counted as of 8:30 eastern time, Obama had 69 percent and Clinton had 31 percent." More on cqpolitics.com
Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff -- "Though many national observers believe former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee faces insurmountable obstacles in his quest for the GOP presidential nomination, conservatives continue to rally around the underdog candidate, including Kansas Republicans, who chose Huckabee as the winner of their GOP caucus Saturday." More on cqpolitics.com
- Huckabee Pledges to Stay in Race (AP)
- Obama, Clinton Compete in 3 States (AP)
- Obama Has Big Leads Over Clinton In Tuesday's "Potomac Primary" (Poll Tracker)
Craig Crawford on "Live with Dan Abrams" (MSNBC)
Tonight on CQ Politics: Complete coverage of the Washington, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine caucuses, as well as the Louisiana primaries.
With nearly 1,600 delegates from the Super Tuesday contests awarded, Sen. Barack Obama led by two delegates Friday night, with 91 delegates still to be awarded. Obama won 796 delegates in Tuesday's contests, to 794 for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to an analysis of voting results by The Associated Press. In the overall race for the nomination, Clinton has 1,055 delegates, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Obama has 998. A total of 2,025 delegates are need to secure the Democratic nomination.
CQ Politics will have complete coverage of the Washington, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine caucuses, as well as the Louisiana primaries, beginning Saturday evening.
That was not much of good-bye from Mitt Romney on Thursday. Instead of simply taking his marbles and going home, he really seemed to be saying, “I’ll just stand over here and throw my marbles at Washington liberals like John McCain.”
You do not have to be conversant in the Masonic tongues of politicians to interpret Romney’s farewell speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington as the first speech of his next campaign. And the next GOP presidential race is likely to get an early start – either McCain loses in November or, if he does win, the Arizona senator’s age could limit him to a single term.
If McCain is a transitional figure like the current Pope, expect Romney to be one those ambitious Cardinals biding his time for the next opening.
Craig Crawford’s Trail Mix – What’s Next for the Dems
Double-click screen to watch
(Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)
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(Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter)
When it comes to the race for campaign cash, Ron Paul ought to be the frontrunner in somebody’s party.
The Texas congressman and Republican White House candidate brought in $20 million during October through December and another $5 million this year. He outpaced his own party’s field and posted quarterly numbers that rival the Democratic leaders.
Despite a fiercly loyal following for his anti-government views, Paul could not get traction among GOP voters in the primaries. Still, the depth of his supporters’ passion -- and of their pockets -- means that Paul has options, even if the Republican nomination is not one of them.
Paul could carry on as a GOP gadfly, but that won’t last much longer. John McCain’s anointment is just a matter of running out the calendar. Or he could run as an independent, as he once did under the Libertarian Party’s banner.
Paul supporters are still raising money for him, regardless of his poor showing at the ballot box. They just don’t seem to care how he runs, so long as he keeps on running.
It was fun watching Paul antagonize Washington regulars in his own party. As a well-financed independent in the fall campaign he could irritate both parties.
It never did made sense to write off the Democratic primary votes in Florida and Michigan – and it makes even less sense now that Super Tuesday has brought forth a muddle in the delegate race.
Even the party official who stripped Florida and Michigan of convention delegates now seems open to revisiting their status.
When Howard Dean was asked on Tuesday in a CNN interview if he would support ultimately seating nominating delegates from the two states that he had punished for leapfrogging the primary calendar, the Democratic National Committee chairman said, "You want everybody on board." And he went on to announce that the delegate dispute “will be revisited by a credentials committee not controlled by me.”
In other words, a bruising convention-eve credentials fight is brewing – which means that Florida and Michigan, the states once derided as meaningless, could actually put Hillary Rodham Clinton over the top in the final delgate count.
If neither Clinton nor Barack Obama makes it to the convention in Denver this summer with a nominating majority, the battle for Florida’s 210 delegates and Michigan’s 157 votes could be decisive. Both of those primaries were won by Clinton, although the candidates didn't campaign in either state and Obama took his name off the Michigan ballot.
As Dean said, a credentials committee comprised of Democratic officials elected from around the country will settle the matter. The Clinton camp is on the record, naturally, for restoring the Florida and Michigan delegations in proportion to the vote in those primaries.
Both inside and outside games will emerge in this credentials fight. First, the rival campaigns must compete behind the scenes for the support of credentials committee members – a contest that could prove to be the most important “primary” of all.
Outside the backrooms, the Clinton campaign will surely mount a vigorous public relations drive aimed at turning the debate into a question of “voting rights” and “civil rights,” hoping to put Obama in the position of seeming to oppose such civil liberties. And the Clinton team will argue that Democrats simply cannot afford to deny entry to two of the nation’s biggest swing states in the general election.
One resolution that would avoid such a battle would be for the two states to begin anew and hold party caucuses to choose delegates without any regard for last month's primary votes. But the Clinton campaign has labored to rally state officials in Florida and Michigan to avoid such a move. That is a major reason why Clinton traveled to Florida on the night of her Jan. 29 primary victory – to fully establish herself as the sole champion for the state’s convention voting rights.
Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams"
Wedneday (2/6) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST
If I were Barack Obama I would tell my flaks in the news media to shut up in the final days before elections. The chattering crowd's frenzy for this man only raises expectations that he cannot meet.
As a result, what was otherwise not too shabby a night for Obama on Super Tuesday came across like a public relations defeat because so much more had been expected. Still, those who predicted a bigger night for Obama are invested in downplaying what actually happened, and will surely gin him up for the next contests.
Before Super Tuesday, gushing pundits predicted that the Kennedy family endorsements would, at a minimum, deliver Massachusetts. Didn’t happen. Feverish news reports of rising momentum for Obama led to hints that Obama could win New Jersey. Didn’t happen.
And, oh yeah, California’s returns were supposed to keep us up all night because the "force of nature" that is Obama had erased Clinton’s lead in the state. Oops, it turned out that Hillary Rodham Clinton’s lead was so substantial that the networks could call the state for her just after midnight.
The California surprise promoted a bit of mea culpa from former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw, who has actually been a voice of reason as so many of his colleagues have lost their minds for Obama.
“Once again,” Brokaw said on MSNBC as Clinton’s early California win was announced, “in all of our conventional and collective wisdom, we were wrong.”
Super Tuesday has a winner – John McCain won enough states and nominating delegates tonight to begin locking down the Republican presidential nomination.
“I think we have to get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party frontrunner for President of the United States,” McCain said moments ago in Phoenix. “And I don’t mind it one bit.”
Even if McCain loses California to Mitt Romney, they will split delegates proportionally instead of winner-take-all, as in other GOP races around the country. Mike Huckabee’s victory in Georgia and other southern states gave him a bigger public relations advantage than anything Romney has produced so far this evening.
Still, the lopsided nature of the Republican race avoids the mind-boggling debate about to ensue over who won Super Tuesday among the Democrats.
Barack Obama’s aides are already on the phone spinning away their losses in Massachusetts and New Jersey – states they worked hard in the last few days, prompting many news commentators to hint that Hillary Rodham Clinton would be pushed out of the race by losing those states.
The Obama camp is now trying to convince the news media in conference calls that they are leading in delegates so far (not counting California), hoping to downplay what looks like a big night for Clinton in the popular vote for most of the contested major states.
Only California can save Barack Obama from a public relations defeat for tonight’s Super Tuesday showdown with Hillary Rodham Clinton. Still, in the all-important delegate hunt the night could be a draw.
So far, the Clintons have solidified key victories in and around their base states of Arkansas and New York.
Complementing her Arkansas win, Clinton picked up Tennessee and Oklahoma – and is leading in Missouri.
Surrounding New York, where Clinton handily won the state she represents in the Senate, nearby states falling to her column include New Jersey and Massachusetts. In this grouping only Connecticut seems to be slipping away from her.
Obama’s victories in Delaware, Georgia, Illinois and North Dakota -- and others soon to be declared -- reveal no promising regional trends or big-state appeal unless he can win California, the biggest delegate prize of the night. An Obama victory there would even the score against what has so far been a better night for Clinton
As Super Tuesday returns roll in, here are a few shortcuts for predicting how this long night could end up:
DEMOCRATS
Massachusetts -- Can the Kennedys deliver their home state to Barack Obama? Winning here would be sweet revenge for Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Missouri -- Since 1956, the “Show Me” state has picked the winner in every general election – a primary win here goes a long way toward showing electability.
REPUBLICANS
Georgia -- Mike Huckabee’s surprising strength is not only blocking Mitt Romney but boosting his case to be the GOP running mate if John McCain wins the GOP nomination.
New York -- The campaign's most business friendly candidate, Mitt Romney, should be a natural in the nation's financial capital. But a McCain win here could begin to clinch the nomination for the Arizona senator.
If John McCain has not promised the Republican running-mate slot to Mike Huckabee, it must be on the table. Huckabee is already playing the attack dog for McCain, blasting Mitt Romney as only a sidekick can do.
The McCain-Huckabee team got a tryout today in West Virginia as the two joined forces to block Romney. Huckabee won 18 delegates as McCain backers threw him their support to prevent Romney from capturing the winner-take-all GOP state convention vote.
Whispers that McCain would pick the Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor are helping ease the concerns of social conservatives, but Huckabee is still not a favorite among economic conservatives.
McCain-Huckabee would be popular with the news media – especially against Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has the worst press relations of anyone still running, and possibly even against Barack Obama, whose fawning coverage might reverse itself at any moment.
How did the great American change election end up with three U.S. senators in the final four? So much for throwing the bums out. The Washington establishment is still in charge.
On the Democratic side in today’s Super Tuesday balloting for party nominations, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois are the only candidates still standing. Unless Republicans upset the rapidly forming order of things, Sen. John McCain of Arizona could all but clinch his party’s nod today.
That leaves Mitt Romney as the only hopeful in the top tier of either party who is not in the Senate. And he bought his way to the finish line, self-financing the bulk of his campaign. The wealthy business investor and former Massachusetts governor hardly presents the profile of a change agent.
The dearth of true outsiders in the campaign’s remaining field makes room for Obama to at least argue that he is the change candidate. The Illinois Democrat has only been in Washington for three years, but he got there as a dutiful conformist rising through the ranks of Chicago’s political system.
With choices like these as vehicles for anti-Washington sentiment, the beltway can rest easy.
Gearing Up for Super Tuesday
As millions of Americans prepare to vote in the critical Super Tuesday multi-state nomination showdown, CQ Politics offers in-depth information on each state holding a contest as well as a slideshow about the history of this Super Bowl of presidential primaries and an interactive quiz.
- Visit the Super Tuesday Page
- Video: Ad Wars: The Fight for Super Tuesday
- CQ Election Map
- 2008 Primary Guide
- Greg's List
- Poll Tracker
- PolitiFact.com
The New York Giants winning the Super Bowl is about the only “endorsement” over the weekend that New York’s senator can claim in the Democratic presidential showdown.
Before the football game on Sunday, Hillary Rodham Clinton compared the nation’s biggest sports event to the political world’s upcoming Super Tuesday, saying that “we expect the New York teams to win both.”
But while Clinton savored her state's Super Bowl victory, Democratic contender Barack Obama continued collecting various endorsements leading up to Tuesday’s nominating contests in 22 states -- from the Grateful Dead to radio humorist Garrison Keillor. And, of course, another Kennedy -- California First Lady Maria Shriver.
Bill Clinton did his best to bag a key endorsement for his wife, watching the Super Bowl on Sunday with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a hot ticket since recently ending his own presidential bid.
If snazzy endorsements are to make the difference on Tuesday, Obama is headed for a big day. Last week’s boost from Caroline Kennedy and Sen. Ted Kennedy unleashed this phenomenal wave of Obama-mania in the celebrity world.
Unless Gov. Richardson comes through before Tuesday. Clinton will have to concede the endorsement primary to Obama’s Kennedy-led trouncing and console herself with the satisfaction that the defeat of the New England Patriots means that at least the Kennedys of Massachusetts lost the Super Bowl.
There he goes again. Mitt Romney, the 2008 campaign’s champion shape shifter, wants to be the Barack Obama of the Republican race.
As Romney searches for any advantage against GOP frontrunner John McCain, he is again borrowing from the latest fashion on the other side of the political aisle -- talking up the “past versus the future” as Obama is doing in his Democratic bid against Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Soon after Obama won the Iowa caucuses in early January, Romney began lifting the Democratic newcomer’s change message. There are even traces of Obama’s grandiloquent speaking style in Romney’s new stump form, a time-honored technique marked by halting cadences, rhetorical flourish and a knack for putting an echo in your voice without the aide of a microphone.
In a painfully awkward attempt to be the hip and happening Republican, Romney even mimicked rap lyrics while working the crowd at a Martin Luther King parade in Florida. “Who let the dog out -- who, who,” he chanted while being photographed with several African-American teens.
What could be Romney’s next morph? He might discover a Kenyan molecule in his bloodline or find a Kennedy who’ll endorse him. Or perhaps Romney could try being himself, if he even knows what that is.
Hillary Rodham Clinton as Barack Obama’s vice president would only make sense if she were allowed to operate as a Democratic Dick Cheney. That is about as close as I can come to any reason that the Democrats would end up with an Obama-Clinton presidential ticket in the fall.
That was my answer to a question on Friday night from MSNBC "Countdown" host Keith Olbermann and it upset many Clinton supporters who saw the Cheney reference as a slam at the New York senator. Others see me as pro-Clinton because I frequently complain that too many in the news media are showing bias against her.
Such talk comes with the territory and this too shall pass. I have repeatedly said that it makes no difference to me what Democrats or Republicans choose to do in this nomination race. That is their business. I am only here to observe and analyze the relative political skills and standings of the contenders. For those who really care for more on this, I try to explain myself in "Why I Don't Vote," a sub-chapter in my book, Attack the Messenger (p. 117).
Getting back to Olbermann's question, why else would Clinton accept a detour from what promises to be a long career as the most powerful woman in Senate history? Without a power-sharing deal along the lines of what George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have done, Clinton has no reason to be Obama’s sidekick if she loses this race to him.
By one standard of success in presidential politics (and it just so happens to be the one I most rely on when predicting outcomes) Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the field in both political parties, according to a recent national survey.
When a sampling of all voters were asked which of the four top contenders -- Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain and Mitt Romney -- was more likely to do something unethical in the campaign in order to win, 44 percent named Clinton, more than 30 points higher than any of the others. (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Jan. 30-31, Poll Tracker)
When I evaluate contenders in a White House race, that’s the first question I ponder: Who will do anything it takes to win? Answer that one correctly, and you’ll pick the winner just about every time.
Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Friday (2/1) MSNBC 8:20 PM EST
Sorely disappointed talking heads like me had no choice but to deploy harsh words for the debate on Thursday between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. We called it “substantive” and “cordial.”
In other words, where was the "business time" in this one-on-one Democratic debate, that stimulating moment when bitter and desperate combatants snarl like mangy dogs and call each other lobbyist patsies and corporate sell-outs? Oh, I forgot -- John Edwards dropped out.
On CQ Politics: Debate Bests and Mosts
Sadly, the remaining hopefuls did not meet media expectations for a face-slapping, sharp-stick-in-the-eye bloodletting. Why do they think we call these things face-offs? Without a freak show we cannot justify millions of dollars spent on television broadcasts that barely compete with bee-keeping specials on RFD-TV (soon to be showing marathon cattle auctions on Comcast Cable).
But no, Obama and Clinton had to go and talk about dumb stuff like health care when they could have spent a least a few minutes wandering around the stage snubbing each other the way they did at the State of the Union address on Monday night. Now there was American politics at its best – the sort of intricately subtle and yet pointedly meaningful snubbing ritual that makes this country the envy of the underdeveloped world.
Instead, the last Democratic candidates still standing on a debate stage had to ruin everything by not acting like they feel sick to their stomachs in each other’s presence. Come on folks, without temper tantrums or mildly psychotic episodes, why should the Los Angeles paparazzi take a break from stalking Britney Spears at the Jack-in-the-Box drive thru?
Surely Clinton could have provoked some fireworks by going negative on Caroline Kennedy. What do we really know about this so-called Camelot princess who passed the family torch to Obama simply because most of her generation’s Kennedys have been using it to light joints between trips to rehab?
Isn’t it suspicious that Caroline pursues a drama-free life without vice, avoiding criminal accusations and writing her own books without the ghost-writing services of genuflecting academics? She could not be a real Kennedy, but more likely the offspring of a responsible bore like Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana.
PollTracker: Super Tuesday Numbers
Obama also kept his powder dry. You just know that those propeller-heads on his opposition research team have the goods on Chelsea Clinton. Why doesn’t she ever say anything in those frequent appearances with her mother, instead just standing off to the side like Vanna White silently turning letters on Wheel of Fortune?
Maybe Chelsea keeps mum because she is a secret chain smoker who sounds like Larry King. Or because the Clintons cannot afford to let it slip that Chelsea has actually been running this family since her prodigal childhood in Little Rock, plotting world domination once she secures an unprecedented third term as First Daughter (take that, Camelot Princess).
No matter how much dirt they’ve got on each other, the two contenders stuck to talking last night about stuff that most voters probably find relevant to their own lives. Darn them.
Craig's GOP Debate Review:
Dr. Strangelove Obliterates Eddie Haskell
Craig on "Imus in the Morning" Friday (2/1)
RFD-TV / WABC-AM 6:29 AM EST
... and on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Friday (2/1) MSNBC 8:20 PM EST