Triangulation in New Hampshire

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Just under half of the New Hampshire returns are in, but allow me a bit of speculation based upon little or no actual information (the pundit’s job): We are witnessing a new kind of triangulation at work in Republican John McCain's runaway victory and Democrat Barack Obama's lower-than-expected results.

My hunch is that in the final day or so of campaigning, Hillary Rodham Clinton's command decision to define Obama on her terms had the effect of driving independents to McCain. Non-partisan voters tend to be swayed by campaign attacks, backing away from both the candidate who is attacked and the one doing the attacking.

In this case, those independents had somewhere to go. McCain was there to reap the benefits of the Clinton-Obama feud.

 

    Comments

  1. So a false win for McCain, Huckster in a distant 3rd, so victory for Mitt and HRC?

    Posted by: Ping Pong Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 9:52 PM

  2. That is an interesting consideration. It would play well with the typical NH contrarian attitudes. Will you have the numbers on how the Independents split later?

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 9:52 PM

  3. Don't know if I'm buying that one, yet. I think NH has as many independants as it does because of all the hype about how independents decided the past few elections (technically they are going to vote they they would if they were registered with one party or the other). I could be totally off base but that's my thoughts on it.

    Posted by: JennBe Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 9:53 PM

  4. Not much going on tonight so here is a link to German Der Spiegel... comments on the race of interest

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,527370,00.html

    Yes it is the english version

    Posted by: Ping Pong Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 9:53 PM

  5. Craig,

    If Hillary does win in NH, do you think Obama will still get the Nevada union endorsement tomorrow?

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 9:54 PM

  6. Is this the start of the Dem love fest:?

    http://www.abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=4102345

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Brazile_on_Bill_Depressing.html

    Will Obama be HC's VP? I never thought Gore would be Clinton's VP, and Obama will never tolerate being confined to the EOB like Gore was.

    Posted by: FryDaddy Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 9:55 PM

  7. Jamie,

    "If Hillary does win in NH, do you think Obama will still get the Nevada union endorsement tomorrow?'

    Nevada is another meaningless state. What you should be looking at is FL & CA to see their reaction to a HC win tonight. HC currently leads in both states, a win should push those numbers up, but if they stay flat that could be bad news for her.

    Posted by: FryDaddy Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 9:59 PM

  8. Another Tweety ant hill moment.

    If women vote for Hillary it is out of "sympathy". The idea that we might actually believe she would make a better president just can't get through that cement forehead.

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 9:59 PM

  9. Doesn't that mean that we voters are an awfully timid lot, Craig? I don't know....

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 10:00 PM

  10. JennBe....
    I am a NHerite....
    and a lot of us are independents(myself included) because we don't like labels.... we don't like others telling us what to do or think....
    if I had to register in a party in order to be able to vote in a primary, I would register as a Democrat..... but I don't have to and I won't....

    and I don't care what anyone else thinks about that.....

    Craig.... I think your analysis is off base.....
    I still say that most independents up here lean one way or the other..... those that lean right took Republican ballots and those that lean left took a Democratic one......

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 8, 2008 10:00 PM

  11. Having given up cigarettes and exit polls, i'll let others figure out the demographics of this suprising night. but you gotta wonder if a lot of women got really pissed at all the hillary bashing in the last few days -- as so well expressed by our own Jamie right here on an earlier post

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:02 PM

  12. LOLOL @ Another Tweety ant hill moment. and cement forehead!!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:02 PM

  13. gotta fire up the crutches and head to the studio. y'all have fun now

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:04 PM

  14. You, too Hobblelong!

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 10:06 PM

  15. Thank you Craig. :-) Since I wouldn't want to interfere with your well deserved income stream, you don't actually have to pass it along.

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:06 PM

  16. Of course there is the old plea from a prisoner of the Indians in the wild west:

    Do anything you want to me, but don't give me to the women!

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:07 PM

  17. Renee I take your word for it. I do agree with you on the leaning one way or another and taking the corresponding ballot, sorry Craig.

    Posted by: JennBe Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:07 PM

  18. R.R.
    I understand exactly what you are saying. When I lived in Tennessee, I was an independent. There really was no value to being a memeber of a party. I leaned Dem so when I moved to Iowa I registerd Dem for the first election. We haved a very active state and county party so I am definitiely a Dem.

    Craig,
    I think you and Jamie might be right. I know it was the final tipping point for me to support Hillary. The bashing was and remains blatant. I am tired of the double standard.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:10 PM

  19. Well...I have to say that Tweety is finally beginning to piss me off...he's spinning, spinning, spinning...just said that women drive the Dem party, and are primarily interested in healthcare and other such issues.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 10:12 PM

  20. I won't make a prediction because mine always seem to be wrong....but here is a question.....what the hell is it with "pundits" who are saying that John Edwards is dead? The rationale is that when voters feel support for their candidate go, they exit as well...

    I've never ONCE bailed on a candidate! I've stayed until the last dog is hung.....oh, apologies to Huckabee's parenting skills.....

    Posted by: Patsi | January 8, 2008 10:13 PM

  21. Rachel Maddow says people are crediting Tweety with the HRC surge....LOL

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 10:14 PM

  22. Elizabeth Edwards is such a beautiful woman. He's good, but she is really the best half of that team.

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:15 PM

  23. Patsi,

    You're like me. I didn't bail on Biden until he left the fray and then went to my number two and I've been in a lot of empty banquet rooms staring at TV sets while they swept up the broken balloons.

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:19 PM

  24. I am telling you...this is our best chance to have anyone, other than a white male, as president. This is the "perfect storm".

    Even those people who feel unsure about voting for a woman, can vote for Hillary, knowing that if she starts to cry, in the White House(you know, like if she breaks a nail or something...)big, ole Bubba will be there to watch her back, take her hand and guide her through any crisis(of course, I am being sarcastic).

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:20 PM

  25. I love this from MSNBC:

    Buchanan. "Press has been telling us Obama is the second coming- the pollsters were dead wrong!"

    Rachel Maddow- Says it's because of Chris MATTHEWS! TWEETY DID IT!!!

    Thank Yous to Tweety- TPM says he did it for our girl

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:20 PM

  26. What is the site that RMaddow mentioned...I missed it.

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:22 PM

  27. Chris really looked as if he just didn't understand why TPM commenters and Maddow would say such a thing about him. It's a little like the racist who says, "some of my best friends are black". Chris just doesn't seem to realize how horribly he talks about women.

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:25 PM

  28. Linda,

    Over on TPM some of the women were saying that the reason the women turned out for Hillary in NH was because of Tweety being so anti-female and really unfair to Hillary.

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:27 PM

  29. Ok, full disclosure, I'm a Rebublican but I love a good race just as much as the next person. My thoughts are that the Clinton machine had way better internal info than Obama and they have just been letting this play out all day.

    Posted by: JennBe Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:28 PM

  30. John Edwards is still my candidate of choice...EDWARDS FOR PRESIDENT!!!...but I am really enjoying watching these guys get turned on their heads....

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 10:30 PM

  31. that was a very good speech from Edwards....

    Jamie..... I agree with dnd.... who has said that if it was Elizabeth running, she'd be the frontrunner.....

    I LOVE Rachel Maddow.....

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 8, 2008 10:31 PM

  32. NBC news projects HRC the winner!

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 10:32 PM

  33. Chris sounds like he is sickened by Hillary's victory :(

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:32 PM

  34. HIGH FIVE girls....... HIGH FIVES!!!!

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 8, 2008 10:32 PM

  35. Well Msgoobama just called it for Hillary.

    Posted by: JennBe Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:32 PM

  36. JennBe

    Welcome. The place needs more Republicans.
    If you want to be on the map (on the left under Blogroll), you need to pick Red (conservative) or Purple (Moderate) dot .

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:33 PM

  37. Night night folks. Rehash tomorrow. Have a good rest of the day.

    Posted by: jamie | January 8, 2008 10:34 PM

  38. Just like in the sports world...

    ...any given Sunday, baby!!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:34 PM

  39. JennBe...I don't think so...I think what we saw from both the Clintons was genuine frustration and concern. But this night is handing us a fascinating turn of events, isn't it?

    Welcome to the list! Many of us are independents...and pretty much all of us are happy to talk with folks of all political stripes.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 10:34 PM

  40. I think I will have to disagree with Craig as well. Registered Republicans are about 37% of the voters, that's roughly about the amount of votes they are splitting right now, looks like the Indies went Dem in huge numbers which ius what I saw our precinct this AM

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:35 PM

  41. my spelink is atroshus

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:36 PM

  42. wow I sure can clear a room

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:40 PM

  43. CNN is not calling the race yet. They think there are precincts that went for Dean in 2004 that haven't reported yet.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:40 PM

  44. Thanks for the welcome guys!!! I'm definately a moderate Republican, probably close to being a Libertarian. I tried the map but it appears to be down for right now or at least the place where you tell it what you are. I'm in Tallahassee, FL.

    Posted by: JennBe Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:43 PM

  45. hiya JennBe, I'm the guy to tell. Do you have a website or a blog you want to link to?

    PS welcome

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:45 PM

  46. CNN just called it. Woo Hoo.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:46 PM

  47. Thanks Ran. No blog to link, though, well I have one but it is more of the soccer mom look at my cute kids type of thing, LOL

    Posted by: JennBe Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:50 PM

  48. CNN agreees with Craig about the Indies but those numbers don't mesh. If McCain and Romney got 66% of the Indies they would have more votes then both Clinton and Obama

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:51 PM

  49. I don't think we have a rule against that JennBe

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:52 PM

  50. I'll add you to the map probably tomorrow but it might be tomorrow night.

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:53 PM

  51. Thanks again. Y'all have a good night!

    Posted by: JennBe Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:56 PM

  52. ran...while you are at the map, will you change my name from Linda to LushIsLinda, since I am going to stick with this one!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:56 PM

  53. LushIsLinda: gotcha

    what studio is Craig heading off to? is he going to be on the teevee?

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 10:58 PM

  54. yes, ran...on MSNBC @ 11pm

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 10:58 PM

  55. **or after Obama and Hillary give their speeches :)

    Obama needs to wrap it up...LOL!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:00 PM

  56. okay you are officially LushIsLinda

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 11:03 PM

  57. the Dems speeches are much better than the Reps speeches tonight

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 11:04 PM

  58. Well, there went the need for my Hillary 2.0 plan....

    I was going to suggest she get Harold Ford Jr. to become her running mate, and announce it about a week prior to the SC primary....

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Ford_Jr.

    I know he came out for Obama early, but haven't seen him anywhere, is the chairman of the DLC, and would certainly blunt Craig's notion that Clinton could be known as the person who denied the first black the chance to be the party's nominee for President (abet it might postpone things until 2012).

    Posted by: Spike Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:05 PM

  59. thank you, ran :)

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:05 PM

  60. don't cry, Hillary....don't give Chris a reason...

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:07 PM

  61. Chris needs a reason?

    if she loses he can make fun of her, if she wins he can make fun of her, it's all win-win for that sorry excuse for a journalist and human being

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 11:10 PM

  62. Of course you are right, ran.

    You know, I have always been a fan of CM, but after watching him tonight, I am so disappointed that he can't seem to hide his frustration with tonight's results.

    Is it that he really does not like Hillary...or...is he upset that he called it wrong?

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:15 PM

  63. He really doesn't like Hillary, or Bill either.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:18 PM

  64. Note the stark contrast between the staging for Clinton tonight and that of Iowa. No Bill and his Cabinet in the background. Only younger supporters, primarily women this time around...

    Posted by: Spike Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:20 PM

  65. Chris Matthews single handedly drove me from TV news, not just his show but everybody eles's show too, I guess I should thank him.

    any other new folks want to join up with our map, I haven't been here in a while so maybe I missed some folks.

    you can e-mail

    mapkeeper at isleofran dot org

    and tell me your nickname

    dot color( we have a lovely assortment of red, blue or purple)

    city\town\village\burg\

    blog or a persoanl web site

    Posted by: ran | January 8, 2008 11:25 PM

  66. Cris Matthews is such a pig he simply cannot even give Hillary one kudo....

    Posted by: Patsi | January 8, 2008 11:27 PM

  67. What tonight's results allow me to feel is relief. There's no need to rush to get to know Obama, no reason to coronate Clinton. We truly can be a thoughtful voting public, and can take our time to listen to these candidates and decide who will lead us out of the mess Bush and his cronies have made into something that makes more sense and allows all of us to feel a greater degree of participation and control. It may be one of them, but it may not. I'm jusst relieved to have breathing roon, and to not have the decision made so quickly by the people of only two states.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 8, 2008 11:28 PM

  68. I was just about to write the same thing as Tom Brokaw just said. Clnton and Obama will both be stronger candidates after these two tests. The field is winnowing and the messages are being honed. Going into Tsunami Tuesday should be vey interesting.

    Craing better come on soon. ..Howard Fineman is being obnoxious. It is all Obama all the time.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:39 PM

  69. The story of the night to me, in addition to HRC "come back" victory, is the shear idiocy of looking at polls in the weeks and days before an election like NH.

    Between the Independent voter and the use of cell phones, it was impossible for any polling group to acurately predict the outcome of this election. Tom Brokaw has it right: Analysts should spend more time on candidates' issue positions and less time analyzing the latest polls. NOT ONE POLL predicted tonight's outcome on the Democrats side of the election.

    Now, I'm hoping for a lot of split decisions from the upcoming primaries to pave the way for a brokered Democratic convention in August. Run, Al, Run!!!

    Posted by: eprof2 | January 8, 2008 11:41 PM

  70. ran,
    what map?

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:46 PM

  71. nannymm...I don't know if ran is still here. The "Map to the Stars" is on the "blogroll" link(on the left of this page).

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:54 PM

  72. Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 8, 2008 11:55 PM

  73. damn...the MSNBC coverage continues...I need to make some popcorn and get comfy on the couch!!

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 8, 2008 11:59 PM

  74. I'm gonna go nuts if I keep hearing not so subtle references to racism in NH- so far Obama is behind by 2%- he won all the college areas in checking out the cnn map-a week ago Hillary was clearly ahead here, but her sizable lead had slipped.

    I will be interested in the final numbers and how many new voters-

    Two hours past bedtime, my two theories about the polls- 1. they showed Obama so far ahead, that people felt he did not need their support (I know one person this was a fact for) and
    2. though Hillary was not my top candidate, I would support her (didn't vote for her)- and I hated the stuff on her lately- especially the she's so yesterday Herald cover- just plain mean.

    Posted by: Kathy | January 9, 2008 12:03 AM

  75. MSNBC's coverage sucked tonight.

    I was going to subscribe to the Nation until I watched Katrina Vandenhuvel? make a jackass of herself. There were too many technical glitches and it doesn't bode well for Messrs. Williams and Russert, when you need Tom Brokaw to come back and basically tool them for forgetting their job as reporters is to report first. Tweety seemed like he was ready to sulk off to timeout.

    Where is Tucker doing all of this? Is he still employed?

    Since when did CNN hire Ralph Reed to be an analyst? Did Abramoff give him a reference for the job?

    Posted by: Bear Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:15 AM

  76. Tucker is on MSNBC right now.

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:16 AM

  77. It is your fault Bear. As soon as you asked about Tucker he reared his ugly head.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:17 AM

  78. whew!! what a night!! that was so exciting... and I'll say it again..about polls.. in the words of Dr. Gregory House: "Everybody lies."

    I learned two things tonight.. Altho I've always thought my husband and I thought similarly.. i learned tonight that we indeed have a gender gap in this house. The second thing I learned is: he's not as much of a pig as Chris Matthews is. But then, who is?

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:27 AM

  79. hey all, that was weird. sat in front of a camera down here for an hour, and then they lost the satellite. but did hear obama and clinton speeches -- did she ever mention barack? must have, but i didn't catch it

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:29 AM

  80. Mr Tylenol decided he wanted to see Jon Stewart and since he's the one with the remote... besides..guess who Stewart had on?? David Frum... Mr. "Axis of Evil" himself! We love to sit at home and make fun of him. What a maroon. What did ya think of the result craig?

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:32 AM

  81. at the very end of the speech she talked about all the Democratic candidates and how wonderful they are
    she lumped by tier and the dearly departed
    so she put Obama and Edwards together

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 12:34 AM

  82. I did pick Clinton to win NH

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 12:40 AM

  83. I'm glad she won... Have the convention dates been set yet? anyone know when they're scheduled?

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:41 AM

  84. my earlier post: "...maybe Craig was posting about journalists like Matt Taibbi (Rolling Stone) who this morning on Imus's show said we can already stick a fork in Hillary...."

    So what is Mr. Wise-Ass Taibbi saying now, sayeth the inquisitor.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Sturgee...if I was there I could find The Citadel blindfolded.
    I used to be in that general area when the Riverdogs played in the old ballpark before they moved over by the Cooper River.
    Every time we tried to tour The Citadel, it was closed to the public. Say hi to old McCain for me, in the form of the old Bronx Cheer.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Mrs. Clinton looked wonderful tonight on the stage...none of the fierce bags under the eyes like Bill has ... must be his allergies...his nose is discolored like W.C. Fields' nose.
    Maybe he has roscacea.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    I thought Obama had the lock on the youngsters? Haven't seen the breakdown yet but she thanked the "young people."
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    So it's a half-win for me...my #3 horse beat my #4 pony.
    A chocolate covered cherry cordial candy in "celebration"
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    You regulars know I am an Evan Bayh fan. Craig reported here eons ago that Bayh was considered " a lightweight inside The Beltway."
    Being a native Hoosier, and a Young Democrat in the 1960's, I met both Birch Bayh and Evan, many years apart.
    As a teen I fetched Sen. Birch Bayh a Fresca, and as a union officer I was called up on stage at a rally in South Bend by Governor Evan Bayh, just before the 1992 elections. Evan was impressed by our cheering and 3 of us went up for photos at the height of the rally. My big day.
    Anyway, JennBe said that Evan had little "upstairs."
    That is total bullshit.
    Check out his record as governor of Indiana. He left the state at surplus and was the most popular Democratic governor of Indiana since Matthew Welsh in the early 1960's.
    It's not easy to get elected to the US Senate as an Indiana Democrat, either. But Evan Bayh did.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:41 AM

  85. you go, Dex! :)

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:44 AM

  86. tylenol

    The Democratic Convention is around 8/28 in Denver

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 12:45 AM

  87. Well Folks,

    As far as I'm concerned The United States Wins Again!

    Posted by: Sheila Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:45 AM

  88. KGC.. do you happen to know if the Reprobates go before or after the dems?

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:47 AM

  89. tylenol: here's the denver info: aug 25--28

    http://www.denverconvention2008.com/

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:48 AM

  90. thanks dex

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:49 AM

  91. The Reprobates are after
    9/1-4 At the Larry Craig Amusement Park

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 12:49 AM

  92. oh crap...now msgobama is trying to say the people in NH are secret racists

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 12:50 AM

  93. Scratch that..just googled.. sept 1 in st-paul..

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:50 AM

  94. tylenol: Minneapolis, September 1--4

    http://www.gopconvention.com/

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:51 AM

  95. LMAO KGC.. Larry craig..damn..spit my drink again..gotta mop up

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:51 AM

  96. yes...it is actually across the Mizz-Sipp River in downtown St. Paul.

    "The Republican Party could not have found a better venue for the 2008 Republican National Convention than the Xcel Energy Center. Ideally situated in downtown Saint Paul, Minnesota, the Xcel Energy Center is a world-renowned facility that plays host to more than 150 events each year."

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:54 AM

  97. is there some rule somewhere that the party 'out of power' has to go first? so much better to have one's convention second

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:57 AM

  98. I've been chasing Craig around for days. At last an explanation. Thought it was my being off + or - and hour due to having been in another time zone.

    At least the pundits are saying that the pundits can't predict anything.

    Both Obama's & Hillary's speeches were good, IMHO.

    There now seems to be a certain excitement about this hourse race, finally.

    Now, if only they, any of 'em, could do what they say they wanna do.

    tt

    Posted by: tiptoe Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 12:59 AM

  99. eprof2 -- "NOT ONE POLL predicted tonight's outcome on the Democrats side of the election. "

    MANCHESTER, NH – On the strength of independent and young voters, Barack Obama has opened up a five-point lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University two-day rolling average tracking poll released today. The flow of these voters to Obama is a dynamic that mirrors Iowa’s Democratic Caucus.

    In the Democratic Primary, Obama (39 percent) leads Clinton (34 percent), John Edwards (15 percent) and Bill Richardson (4 percent). Eight percent were undecided.

    http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/20580.html#anchor26063

    Jjust found their internals...More analysis coming...

    Posted by: Spike Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:01 AM

  100. I don't know how they decide, It's a good questions though. The gap between the Dems and the goopers in 2004 was long and favored the goopers.

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 1:02 AM

  101. It's fitting that the repugg party be held five minutes from the I-35W bridge disaster area.
    I'd love to see old McCain up on stage pledging to "keep US troops in Iraq for 100 years! !", in the shadow of the best horrible example of crumbling infrastructure this nation offered-up last year.
    Did yas see the reports of how street light are being erected in Fallugia, Iraq?
    The I-35W collapse is a harbinger of worse infrastructure blow-ups...the nation needs funds for replacing many bridges, and shoring up even landmark bridges like The Brooklyn Bridge.
    But old McCain, delusionary damn old fool, wants to keep Bush's madness stretching into an endless future. And he may be the nominee, if he really takes off and defies those who hate him in his own party.

    A friend visited New Orleans over the holidays..first time there for him since Karina.
    He told me he was totally unprepared for what he saw on his drive into the city.
    Massive obvious damage still untouched...hundreds he saw sleeping under bridges and under benches...he got the feeling that Bush just walked away form much needed rebuilding of New Orleans.
    And yet we let maniacs like Bush and McCain push our noses into the muck of Iraq. It is disgraceful!

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:07 AM

  102. best laughs I had all night was when they were all discussing McCain's speech.. pretty entertaining..

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:07 AM

  103. best laughs I had all night was when they were all discussing McCain's speech.. pretty entertaining

    they trashed him pretty good jeez leave the old guy alone...had to be way past his bedtime

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 1:11 AM

  104. haha KO nearly busted a gut.. (well i did too for that matter)

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:17 AM

  105. NBC continues to try to be the news instead of reporting it. Russerts load of crap announcement about the Culinary Workers endorsement should be called out for the baloney that it is. He just made crap up and then tried to back out of,

    They did the same thing last week with the vote swaping and who was dropping out.

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 1:20 AM

  106. and just who were these people "inside the Clinton campaign" who were ready to bolt? I'm tellin ya, if I were Hillary, I'd be kickin some butt tonight!

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:22 AM

  107. I wouldn't believe anything I heard on tv from those clowns. All the rumors came from the liar Joe Trippi

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 1:25 AM

  108. kATY cRACK: I thought of you when Fat Timmy was backin' down the hall saying "it wasn't ME that said the sky is falling."
    Yep, Culinary Workers don't cotton t' big mouth pundits.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:26 AM

  109. " She has been a whore for the war from the get go."

    Bear....I can only hope you were just being a smartass with that comment.

    Posted by: Patsi | January 9, 2008 1:26 AM

  110. Hillary is kicking butt again. Tim Russert said last night's upset of Obama (he was WAY ahead in all polls ...except one that had him a 1% fave)...was "the greatest upset IN UNITED STATES POLITICAL HISTORY!"
    Obama's "outreach" to Iran reminds me of a marching ditty from Basic Training:

    A yellow bird
    A yellow bill

    Was perched upon
    My window sill.

    I lured him in
    With crust of bread.

    AND THEN I STOMPED HIS
    ...
    (blankin') HEAD !!

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:27 AM

  111. Hey Dex
    What do you think will happen in Ohio?

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 1:30 AM

  112. strange thing was the lack of signs here in the Valley. Usually see signs everywhere before an election but I don't think I saw 15 signs and that's traveling about 30 miles round trip.

    how was the sign thing around southern NH?

    wonder what, if any, effect Bill Clinton had here after his visit Sunday.

    Posted by: ran | January 9, 2008 1:32 AM

  113. Nite all.. i'm all in.. see ya tomorrow..

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:33 AM


  114. NEW THREAD

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 1:33 AM

  115. Now I must say this....I am thrilled that Hillary won. But I also believe there is an almost cult-like Obama freight train headed her way. And watch for the media to now start saying that the Democrats have split between women and blacks.

    Posted by: Patsi | January 9, 2008 1:35 AM

  116. Hi All-

    I have read some comments concerning the reason why women voted in favor of Hillary-- mainly that women were angry by the treatment that she received by the press and other candidates.

    I am a 35 year old educated female who supports Hillary. While I was angry by the treatment, my main reason for supporting her has to do with the fact that she addresses the issues that are important to me and my family. She talks about the economy and health care, which are two issues that give me anxiety.

    While I admire Obama's main message of hope, he does not speak to my family's needs and issues in a way that is meaningful. I need specifics.

    So, while the pundits talk about "the defining moment," I tend to think in terms of the sum of the candidate. What does she stand for? How will she implement it? Do I have confidence in her ability to implement it?

    Posted by: Jan, STL | January 9, 2008 1:37 AM

  117. Patsi
    Pat Buchanan already tried to say that
    and Rachael Maddow said he was a doddering old fool

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 9, 2008 1:40 AM

  118. In Tuesday evening's New Hampshire primary results, Clinton and her special interest party won tonight over the party of the people.

    The people of New Hampshire stood in long lines to vote and the exit polls were not wrong and the pollster were not wrong, by all rights Obama should have won New Hampshire, but the special interest groups pulled another rabbit out of their hat and gave the victory to Clinton. The earlier results where there were paper ballots the victory went to Obama in a very large margin, with the voting machines Clinton got the victory. This same scenario happened to Gore and Kerry. The exit polls and pollster saying one thing and the machines saying another. That is why people cannot trust their government, and until we have voting machines that are fool proof and tamper proof and go go back to elections with paper ballots, like in Iowa, we cannot really trust our election results.

    On the eve of the election, Hillary played her poor me, self-pity act (her so-called authentic moment) and Media complicit in this charade, played this teary-eyed Hillary over and over again to get out the "sympathy vote", which she did, but neglecting the air the piece right afterwards in which she lashes out at Barack Obama . This policy blunder will be huge ammonition for the Republicans if she wins the nomination. This "teary-eyed" piece will be aired over and over again in campaign commercials; citing her as to weak and to unstable to lead the country. A big mistake for her!

    Change is hard, but Senator Obama will continue on with his message of hope and change. The special interst groups do not want to give up their power and they will do everything they can to keep power in their hands and out of the people's hands. Deciding who to back, be it Republican or Democrat as long as they serve their ends. Eventually the people will win and we will keep on fighting.

    President Clinton, a man supposedly of honor, distorted and took out of context words Senator Obama's spoke at the 2004 Democratic Convention about his stance on the Iraq war. Do we really want people like that in the White House who will lie and distort for their own selfish gains? Or do we want a man of goodwill and integrity in the White House a man more concerned about you than himself. It is no easy to task for a man to risk his life for you because he answers the call to make America better and to take it to a higher ground.

    When President Clinton achieved his Presidency, he took a lot of Democrats down. They had record loss in both the Senate and the Congress and the tone of Washington, D.C, was divisive and nasty, and a Hillary Presidency will do the same and we will have lost our moment to come together as one.

    Much is at stake, we are at a crossroads. Change is hard because the media is in their pockets; the voting machines cannot be trusted. We can only HOPE! God bless this county!

    Posted by: bacaangel Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 2:28 AM

  119. In Tuesday evening's New Hampshire primary results, Clinton and her special interest party won tonight over the party of the people.

    The people of New Hampshire stood in long lines to vote and the exit polls were not wrong and the pollster were not wrong, by all rights Obama should have won New Hampshire, but the special interest groups pulled another rabbit out of their hat and gave the victory to Clinton. The earlier results where there were paper ballots the victory went to Obama in a very large margin, with the voting machines Clinton got the victory. This same scenario happened to Gore and Kerry. The exit polls and pollster saying one thing and the machines saying another. That is why people cannot trust their government, and until we have voting machines that are fool proof and tamper proof and go go back to elections with paper ballots, like in Iowa, we cannot really trust our election results.

    On the eve of the election, Hillary played her poor me, self-pity act (her so-called authentic moment) and Media complicit in this charade, played this teary-eyed Hillary over and over again to get out the "sympathy vote", which she did, but neglecting the air the piece right afterwards in which she lashes out at Barack Obama . This policy blunder will be huge ammonition for the Republicans if she wins the nomination. This "teary-eyed" piece will be aired over and over again in campaign commercials; citing her as to weak and to unstable to lead the country. A big mistake for her!

    Change is hard, but Senator Obama will continue on with his message of hope and change. The special interst groups do not want to give up their power and they will do everything they can to keep power in their hands and out of the people's hands. Deciding who to back, be it Republican or Democrat as long as they serve their ends. Eventually the people will win and we will keep on fighting.

    President Clinton, a man supposedly of honor, distorted and took out of context words Senator Obama's spoke at the 2004 Democratic Convention about his stance on the Iraq war. Do we really want people like that in the White House who will lie and distort for their own selfish gains? Or do we want a man of goodwill and integrity in the White House a man more concerned about you than himself. It is no easy to task for a man to risk his life for you because he answers the call to make America better and to take it to a higher ground.

    When President Clinton achieved his Presidency, he took a lot of Democrats down. They had record loss in both the Senate and the Congress and the tone of Washington, D.C, was divisive and nasty, and a Hillary Presidency will do the same and we will have lost our moment to come together as one.

    Much is at stake, we are at a crossroads. Change is hard because the media is in their pockets; the voting machines cannot be trusted. We can only HOPE! God bless this county!

    Posted by: bacaangel Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 2:29 AM

  120. NEW THREAD

    Posted by: jamie | January 9, 2008 7:57 AM

  121. Folks, who is "tweety"?


    Posted by: Thomas Freeman Author Profile Page | January 9, 2008 4:39 PM

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