Republican Mitt Romney’s decisive win in Michigan’s presidential primary -- projected by the television networks on Tuesday as soon as the polls closed – sounds the trumpets for bruising battles ahead in South Carolina on Saturday and in Florida on Jan. 29.
With three major contests and three different winners so far in the GOP race, there is every chance for more new winners to emerge. Come Feb 5, when 21 states vote on what some call Tsunami Tuesday, there could be four or five Republican “frontrunners.”
All of which leads to the real possibility that no one gains the delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination before the summer. The prospect of a brokered GOP convention took a big step toward reality in Michigan.
While Romney will now work overtime to rally the party establishment, he will meet resistance. Many GOP leaders -- especially those who have been running against him -- personally dislike the former Massachusetts governor.
Still, Romney can press a persuasive case that the Michigan win earns him frontrunner status. This is his second victory (including Wyoming) and it follows two second-place finishes (Iowa and New Hampshire), giving him the best overall record to date. Also, he has the most delegates, the most votes and the most money (if you count his personal fortune).
Despite those arguments, the party is fractured in many directions. And the man once considered the frontrunner, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, lies in waiting down in Florida -- which will be the final and biggest state to vote before Tsunami Tuesday.
Craig on MSNBC "Decision '08"
Michigan Primary / Democratic Debate
Tuesday (1/15) 11:00 PM to 1:00 AM EST... and on "Imus in the Morning"
Wednesday (1/16) 6:29 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM




Comments
Brokered convention...break out the champagne!!
Posted by: Claire
| January 15, 2008 9:24 PM
It should be fun if they split up the Super Tuesday states.
Come on over to the chat room
Posted by: jamie | January 15, 2008 9:29 PM
Brokered convention = Hagel nomination.
Posted by: dnd | January 15, 2008 9:33 PM
DND, wouldn't that be somethin'!!
So, folks, who won Round One?
Posted by: Claire
| January 15, 2008 9:37 PM
Pretty much a draw. No one has drawn blood or gotten off a good joke.
Posted by: jamie | January 15, 2008 9:39 PM
Ron Paul in fourth...I thought that a fourth-place finish for him would have happened in New Hampshire last week. Seemingly tons of support here in the Granite State.
Posted by: Claire
| January 15, 2008 9:44 PM
Winner: the guy who yelled out "these are race bait questions from you two."
Posted by: zoey
| January 15, 2008 9:45 PM
Above post is only relevant if the current trends hold. Only 37% of the vote in as I typed that. I should have reserved comment.
Posted by: Claire
| January 15, 2008 9:46 PM
Now, Zoey...you went and snuck in a post before I posted a post referring to the "above post"...I should have said "post above above post"!! :-)
Posted by: Claire
| January 15, 2008 9:47 PM
Zoey & Craig,
Off topic, but there's a recent study about ankle injuries and deep vein thrombosis, which may lead to pulmonary embolism.
http://cbs4denver.com/health/blood.clots.sprained.2.629727.html
Posted by: dnd | January 15, 2008 9:55 PM
Humor break from Josh Marshall:
"9:13 PM ... Russert gets self-righteous and tries to keep the debate on racial issues and Obama's drug use. Candidates try mightily to redirect the conversation.
9:19 PM ... Pretty solid questions at this point. Starting off with who's more racist and now what Obama's position on the 'likable' crack at the last debate. And we haven't even gotten back to Russert yet!
9:20 PM ... Now we're on to whether Obama and Edwards tag teamed Hillary in the last debate. And like I said, we're not even back to Russert yet.
9:24 PM ... Candidates agree that they like each other and that Russert is a pretentious blowhard.
9:28 PM ... Edwards said he had to fight to survive from infancy."
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
Posted by: zoey
| January 15, 2008 10:01 PM
Thanks for the link,dnd. I worried about blood clots when I first injured my ankle because it hurt to move it at all. After a few days I could flex it some so I was less worried. I got some anti embolism socks but they made me think they were cutting off the circulation. I am about ready to try them again since most of the swelling is gone now.
Posted by: zoey
| January 15, 2008 10:06 PM
"policy wonk "
Brilliance and competence are so darn boring. :-)
Posted by: jamie | January 15, 2008 10:37 PM
Night all. See you tomorrow.
Posted by: jamie | January 15, 2008 11:01 PM
Fast comment then need to hit the hay.
I can no longer consider Huckabee for any office due to the Constitutional Change be brought up. I'm sorry since I thought that maybe Religion would not be injected into our Government Policies for all the people.
Now for the real meat. I must say that this was the best debate I have seen to date. All the candidates were excellent and I am now left with no idea who will be the nominee.
I'm a registered Independent so I can not vote in the Primary, however I will fully support whomever the Democratic nominee is come November if we actually have elections.
I would still like to know if they will rescind the Dictatorial Powers that the President will have once elected.
Take care all and ...
God Bless.
Posted by: anon-paranoid
| January 15, 2008 11:05 PM
I actually thought the debate was a little on the dry side. I especially did not care for the first 30 minutes where NBC seemed to try to get the candidates to say something negative or inflammatory about race.
I was impressed with Obama's willingness to address the problem with African American males staying in the family unit. He also spoke with greater detail concerning policies.
Hillary was impressive in that she kept her cool, spoke substantively on issues, and seemed genuinely passionate about issues such as the economy and foreclosures. I agree with Chris Matthews about the question that she posed to Obama. It was a power move.
Edwards was a little hokey with his response on his weakness. Give me a break-- he's too empathetic.
Posted by: Jan | January 15, 2008 11:23 PM
Florida is going to be a blast!!!!! Already got a call from the Ron Paul campaign.
Watched the second hour of the Dems debate. Thought it was very interesting and glad I missed the part in the beginning about race. Interesting when they started talking about education. not sure how Edwards plans to pay for his Free P-K program or how different it would be than what is currently available. We already have Voluntary Free PreK in Florida and I'm assuming many other states do as well. Not quite sure why it seems all Dems are against standardized testing maybe someone can explain it to me. I used to be very critical of standardized testing but having kids now in school and being able to measure what they are learning and knowing they are moving into the next grade prepared is a great feeling. Liked Barack emphasizing the important role a parent plays in thier kids education, my fear would be they would find someway to legislate it, JK.
Cracks me up how everyone tries to distance themselves from Lobbyists, when it it the lobbyists who are the ones that raise the money so they can run for office.
Oh well, enough for now! Have a great night, y'all.
Posted by: JennBe
| January 15, 2008 11:52 PM
That debate would have been better if they were all seated in arm chairs and were given martinis after every question...that way if Russert was a total jackass they could vomit on him
Posted by: Bear
| January 16, 2008 12:08 AM
Well, my info proved wrong. Romney did well and won MI, confirming my gut feelings before I read all about how the Detroit suburbs would render Romney a loser.
Now we learn 40 % cast votes "uncommitted" in the Dem side.
Obama is a huge fave in Michigan, apparently. Just 50% of the men voted for HRC there. She was unopposed in the stupid Michigan Dem primary, no delegates even awarded.
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 12:16 AM
Too Funny Bear!
Craig, gotta a question?
Chuck Todd just brought up the possibility of another Republican joining the race in 2 months if the nomination is still fractured, what do you think?
Posted by: JennBe
| January 16, 2008 12:17 AM
How can the Parties say the delegates won't be counted, then count them at the August / September conventions?
People vote all kinds of crazy ways when they think their votes aren't going to be valid! ???? Hell, in Michigan...one candidate on the Dem ballot...what gives?
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 12:21 AM
Dex, I believe that the person who is the nominee of the party can invite the delegation to the convention. Not sure how it would work if there is not a presumtive nominee when going into the convention. Unless the national party rescinds and invites the delegation.
Posted by: JennBe
| January 16, 2008 12:28 AM
Interesting they just talked about it in a little more depth. I would love to see Haley Barber run.
Posted by: JennBe
| January 16, 2008 12:36 AM
JennBe,
I have the same feeling that Newt is painting a horse white to get ready to ride in and save the day.
Haley Barber will have so much shit thrown at him from his time as RNC chair that even his thick skin could not survive the run.
Posted by: Bear
| January 16, 2008 12:44 AM
Craig, you surely make it sound like Rudy is indeed the latest "comeback kid". Taxes, eh? That is what will play big in Florida.
Well, it shore-as-hail ain't gonna be the war in Iraq...those men just try to out-do each other on how long they will keep the trops there.
Now that the Big Three of the Dems have all come together and neutralized any competition of plans on how they will orchestrate an end to the Iraq occupation, (they aren't going to, that's all...Edwards cop-out of saying he will keep the strike-force bottled up in Kuwait ? Big deal---he'd have them back into Iraq in a heartbeat.
Protect the US Embassy? So that's it, eh?
When we got out of Vietnam, the US Embassy was just left...no plan to maintain a presence there in a then-hostile country.
Oh yes, Iraq and Vietnam are different, alright.
We left Vietnam.
We will never leave Iraq. Never ever ever. And nobody cares.
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 12:46 AM
Great back and forth with Maddow and Buchanan now. I can't help but think the world will end tomorrow because Pat seems to be "in like" with Hillary after her performance tonight.
Posted by: Bear
| January 16, 2008 12:47 AM
TY 4 the insight JennBe , re: the delegate validations. So much to figure out...but it must have been CRAZY in the days when the ballots went on and on and all kinds of brokered deals went on ... some conventions took 100 ballots....and more
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 12:52 AM
Bear, I do like Newt too. I met both of them at a fundraiser thing in DC after the Dole campaign. Newt's speech that night was amazing and Haley has that southern charm. LOL! I was quite young and impressionable then though.
Posted by: JennBe
| January 16, 2008 12:54 AM
I just found out I was right a few days ago when guessed that the last Dem brokered convention was in 1952..The 1948 Repugg convention was the last for them. The 1924 convention took 102 ballots.
Every Crawfordslister needs to read this for a refresher course:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/politically_uncorrected_conven.html
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 12:57 AM
Dex, I think it would be incredible to watch.
Getting tired of Matthews railing on Lobbyists.
Posted by: JennBe
| January 16, 2008 1:00 AM
Here's the Wiki on the 1924 Dem Convention in NYC...says here it took 103 ballots....
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 1:03 AM
Yeah, jennBe...might be the only one in my lifetime from this point on...I don't remember 1952!
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 1:05 AM
Thanks for the links! I came a bit after 1952, but I can imagine it would be a once in a lifetime event for me too.
Posted by: JennBe
| January 16, 2008 1:09 AM
A brokered convention is an interesting parlor game, but with the exceptions of Clinton, Obama, and Romney (and maybe those candidates who are taking Federal money), I'm not sure any of the rest of the candidates (at least the ones in the race now) will have the money to get there.
If it's still up in the air and there are bodies left standing after February 5th, I believe the delegate count will be settled no later than the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4th...
Posted by: spike
| January 16, 2008 1:36 AM
Personally, I'm looking forward to the possibility of a repeat of the 1968 Democratic campaign....
Unpopular war, unpopular President, antiwar candidate popular with young people, late entering candidates, party establishment versus party newcomer candidates, and a late breaking credible third party candidate. And to top it off, there was a police riot at the convention....
Now that was a campaign....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election%2C_1968#Historical_background
Posted by: spike
| January 16, 2008 1:40 AM
Here's a real DANGER and perhaps the tip of an unwanted, unneeded iceberg.
It's an incredibly arrogant Christian position. NO religious folks as President! Not Jewish Rabbis or others.
"Huckabee Wants A “Faith-based” Constitution"
Video:
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/01/15/huckabee-wants-a-faith-based-constitution/
tt
Posted by: tiptoe
| January 16, 2008 1:40 AM
I musta forgot to add the link for the 1924 dem convention:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Democratic_National_Convention
SPIKE: TY 4 giving me hope my Ohio vote in March might mean sumpthin' after all !!
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 1:42 AM
SPIKE: Didja see the photo slideshow I posted here about ten days ago from da Trib re: 1968 Chicago?
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 1:45 AM
SPIKE: on this link, just click "1968" on the photo gallery feature:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/
Posted by: Dexter
| January 16, 2008 1:47 AM
I think there is only one person that can keep the Republicans from imploding this year.
Jeb Bush
Posted by: ran | January 16, 2008 1:49 AM
Dexter: when I first glanced at the first picture of the 68 photos I thought the first soldier was John Candy
Bear: Buchanon is an odd duck. He's actually quite reasonable about most things, he is certainly not afraid to praise Dems or chastise Reps when he feels it's warranted. I think I would enjoy a conversation with him although I disagree with most of what he believes that seems to a case of different views on what we think American is and should be rather than any outright hostility to others. Of course the first time I saw Larry the Cable Guy I thought he was funny so I could be just as wrong or wronger about Buchanon. He does have a sense of humor though, pretty rare among the fellas on the other side these days.
I know a lot of people have accused him of being a racist but I can't say I have ever seen evidence of that personally.
tiptoe: I think Huckabee effectively ended his campaign with that Constitutional nonsense
Posted by: ran | January 16, 2008 2:02 AM
ran, I hope so!
http://patterns2.blogspot.com/
tt
Posted by: tiptoe
| January 16, 2008 2:04 AM
NEW THREAD
Posted by: Craig Crawford
| January 16, 2008 2:05 AM
LOL @ the 'Little Miss Sunshine" reference!!
Posted by: LushIsLinda
| January 16, 2008 6:48 AM
Isn't the possibility of a brokered convention the sole reason why Fred Thompson is still in the race? With a divided result from the primaries, Thompson can present himself as everyone's second choice.
Posted by: Michael Mezey | January 16, 2008 9:49 AM
I think there is a good chance for a brokered convention to occur on both sides, which means no clear majority of pledged delegates. Since the Democrats use the preoperational and super delegate system for awarding delegates, there is a strong chance that someone other than the eventual nominee will end up with a large amount of delegates at the time of the convention. Therefore, the nominee will not have a majority of delegates. I think this would mean on the Democratic side that another candidate with a large amount of pledged delegates would probably become the vice presidential nominee as a way to keep the party in alignment.
On the Republican side, it is more likely that a brokered convention will occur. First, in the Republican primary delegates are mostly awarded based on a winner takes all system. There are twenty states that use the winner takes all system; most of these states’ primaries are Super Tuesday. Giuliani is favored in most of these states. Therefore, he could rack up a substantial amount of delegates and sprint past the current three way front-runners. Thereby, no clear winner in time for the Republican Convention. However, if this were to occur, I do not predict it will be as friendly on the Republican side.
This is an extremely exciting time for democracy in America. Our democracy sets the standard for the world and the world is watching. More importantly, it is exciting to see so many Americans involved in the political process. Boy, America is a great country.
Posted by: Cheryl S. | January 16, 2008 11:21 AM
Romney's negative likeability seems to be an important factor in this campaign.
I was very well disposed toward him at the beginning of the campaign.
His business background, his accomplishments as the Governor of Massachusetts and his dignified mien all conferred upon him a gravitas that fit well into my concept of the American President.
But he has run such a terrible campaign!
The son of George Romney- the President of American Motors- is going to save the US car industry? What happened to AMC?
Romney knows so much about Michigan and its economics he left for college and never came back.
Those are just the latest of Mitt's amazing campaign of devious flip-flops and deceit.
If you like George W. Bush, and want another President with a gold plated resume who doesn't understand the job, Mitt Romney is waiting for your vote.
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