Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Thanks again for the reports from our "Trail Watchers" in early-voting states. Here are a couple worth noting from the last post:

Spike (Iowa) on the Des Moines Register poll:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/01/crunch-time-for-obama.html#comment-9241

Zoey (Iowa) on today's Bill Richardson event:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/01/crunch-time-for-obama.html#comment-9242

"We just got back from a Richardson event. We drove over an hour in white-out conditions to a sports bar (one of few bars) on New Year's morning in a very conservative dutch town (10,000+ population)."

If anybody had any doubt that Iowa caucus goers don't take their responsibility seriously, re-read Zoey's (who's caucusing for Hillary) report.

ps. Zoey, they showed this on CNN this am. I don't think I saw you as I didn't see anybody on crutches.

Craig -- thanks for reposting Zoey and my posts..

Breaking News from the Intrade.com Iowa Republican Futures Market....

Romney has lost 60% of his market value since 8:45 a.m. CST this morning. Huckabee only picked up 5% during the same period. Huckabee went from essentially being tied with Romney last night to 30 points ahead today....

The Iowa Democratic Futures Market is also becoming more volatile, but not to the extent of the Republican market.

More as events warrant...

dnd,
I am using the wheelchair this week so I can get to the events and caucus without breaking anything more. I was to Bill's right, behind several members of the press, yet in front of the pool tables.

Craig,

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."
-- Joseph Goebbels

Breaking news:
Zoey has caucus fever!!!

all thanks to you, Spike -- if it weren't for my broken ankle i'd be out there right now, so i am loving the field reports from our trail watchers -- and yes, DnD, extra kudos to Zoey for braving the elements despite her broken bones

Spike,
Your posts are very interesting, but there's something I'm confused about regarding the candidate futures market.
In traditional futures pricing (e.g., Black-Scholes or Cox-Rubenstein) there are five parameters (assuming no dividends):

1. volatility
2. time to maturity
3. strike price
4. risk free interest rate
5. current underlying price

All are unequivocally known except volatility. And I could see how to map these parameters to the candidate futures except for the risk free interest rate and the current underlying price.

My question is it assumed the participants use a pricing model? And if so, what is it?

Ree posted this on the last thread:

"Burying our heads in the sand, and ignoring growing threats overseas, during the last Clinton Administration is what got us in this shape, in the first place. "

I must respond to what has become a Republican drumbeat to take people's attention away from the fact that Bush was warned in August of 2001 of a coming attack and did NOTHING. Clinton, on the other hand held security meetings about terrorism threats all the time -- astonishing that he could still be effective on any level when you consider that Repubs kept him under constant personal attack. The Republicans have been trying to shift attention away from Bush's inattention since 9/12....and as usual, their re-writing of history is working.

Here's a money quote from one report in Salon, a publication not always supportive of Bill Clinton.

"On Clinton's watch, the CIA and the National Security Council instituted a special al-Qaida unit that thwarted several deadly conspiracies, including a scheme to blow up Los Angeles International Airport on Millennium Eve, and plots to bomb the Holland and Lincoln Tunnels in New York City as well as the United Nations building. Timely American intelligence also prevented a deadly assault on the Israeli embassy in Washington. Meanwhile, the State Department and the CIA neutralized dozens of terrorist cells overseas through quiet prosecutions, extraditions, and executions undertaken by allies from Albania to the Philippines.

A month before Clinton left office -- and nine months before the planes hit the World Trade Center and the Pentagon -- the nation's most experienced diplomats in counterterrorism praised those efforts. "Overall, I give them very high marks," said Robert Oakley, former Ambassador for Counterterrorism in the Reagan State Department."

here's the URL -- http://dir.salon.com/story/opinion/feature/2003/08/22/conason_five/index.html

Craig,

How did you break your ankle? I hope martinis weren't involved...

I just drove from Texas to Vermont and back over the past week. The only candidate that I saw with any kind of signage, whether it was yard signs or billboards, was Ron Paul. I saw his signs in every state I traveled through.

The only Democrat that I saw any signage for was Obama and that was primarily in New England.

What I found to be especially odd was seeing more Bush/ Cheney 2004 and Kerry/ Edwards bumper stickers than any of the current candidates running.

Even though we all recognize this to me an election of monumental importance, it seems that the electorate is slow to come to that conclusion in my opinion.

What do you all think?

Zoey's probably able to go to all these events despite her injuries because -- as all Iowa children do -- she walked to school 5 miles up hill in snow storms everyday....

dnd -- There is more than enough data (including puts, calls, etc) on the Intrade site. Clink on any candidate and you'll see all the data including graphing with technical indicators. You can also download historical data.

f you look at pages 2-3 on the lastest graph I posted, you'll find the technical indicators I typically use:

http://www.central.edu/publicdocs/12%2D31%2D07FuturesMarketGraphs.pdf

Hypothetically, you could set the risk free investment parameter to the current t-bill rate, or any other government issued security you choose...

Hope that answers your question.

Bear.
"I just drove from Texas to Vermont and back over the past week. ...What do you all think?"

I think you're one courageous driver. Wasn't the weather miserable throughout the midwest and the northeast last week?

But to your point, the only yard signs I've seen around here are for Ron Paul. Curious.

dnd -- what particular lie caused you to bring up what has become Goebbels' most famous quote?

Craig...
your latest TM may sound like a Hillary commercial..... but that doesn't mean it isn't valid....

I agree completely...... it would better read as "meaningful change requires experience"......

change..... just for change's sake is meaningless, IMO.....
changing over from eating nachos to eating twinkies is still eating junk food....

change can be a wonderful thing..... it can provide an immediate thrill.....
but in order for it to be sustained, it needs to be carefully and well thought out....

just ask anyone who's ever gone on a crash diet.....

Obama is the biggest offender of over-usage of the theme "...change..."

Yet it was Kucinich and Gravel who exonerated CHANGE and they are now long-gone ... not been mentioned for weeks now...Gravel months.

Every time I hear Obama in his old-time cadence cantoring for "change"...I think of Russert's question of Iraq in 2013...Obama just looked down and clammed up and stuttered and siad , no, he couldn't say he'd have troops out of Iraq by then, and then when we all ready for him to lash into Hillary a few debates ago, he backed off.
And those of us with a few years of age vividly recall what happened when Jimmuh and Roz strolled down Penna Ave. hand in hand, promising to usher in a new world of change.
How'd that work out for President Carter?

It's just a word. It means nothing. Let me hear HRC and Obama and Huckabee and Romney say we will immediately withdraw all troops from Iraq on the first day of their admisistration. FAT CHANCE.

Patsi, I believe dnd was quoting Goebbels in response to Craig's lament of the the candidates' empty droning proffers of "change".

Patsi,
What Mike said.

Has there ever been a non-incumbent candidate who didn't promise change?

Renee, will Edwards do the job for us? I'm as yet undecided, but I belive he's the only competitive Dem who has committed to an immediate and complete withdraw from Iraq.

I love MSNBC, but this lack of coverage today is really inexcusable.

dnd...Spike...where did this market futures / candidates chances thing come from?

I think I could understand it if I understood it, which I don't.

Is this like fantasy football leagues?

I mean, as Onassis might have said..."It's all Greek to me."

Can't agree more, Craig. That's the funny thing with linguistics..ya can play with words. "change" in this case doesn't mean a damned thing, because no matter who wins, it will be a change (as Bush cannot run again, PRAISE God!.). If a chimp (or should that be "another chimp?") were elected, then that would be change.

Dexter.. I wonder what Greeks say when they want to say "It's all Greek to me"?

Mike Lord....
welcome to the blog.....

no.... that's not true....
Richardson is also saying the same thing...... and I'm voting for him in the NH primary..... Hillary is my second choice....

the reason I like Richardson is because when it comes to diplomacy.... no one on the Democratic side can rival his experience...... I also like his experience as Secretary to the Dept. of Energy......

for me..... the number one concern is our reputation on the world stage....
and domestically it's peak oil and alternative energy......

I have a problem with Edwards popularist stance......
IMO, negotiating and compromising is the way to get anywhere in life.....
confrontation is not the way to go..... butting heads with corporations may work as a trial lawyer with getting money for a client...... but I think negotiating with them is a better way to get them to make concessions.....

but with that said..... I think Edwards would be a far superior president to the current one.....

Tape-delayed Update from IA: went to the Hillary Clinton New Year's Eve Party last night. It may have been the lamest New Year's Party that I have ever been to. They had a very respectable crowd there, but only spoke for about 3 minutes each, which I thought was a mistake. The Iowa Poll results had just been released and the operatives and volunteers that we talked with were not in particularly joyous moods.

Renee...

The problem I have with your position on negotiation and compromise with big business is that...big business should NEVER have been allowed to write the rules and regs that govern their businesses in the first place. Since the 1980's, it has been pretty much exclusively the province of big business to set both its own agenda and how the marketplace (you and me) would receive and interact with that agenda.

When I listen to Edwards' so-called populist stance, I hear a man who is not so much angry as one who is AWARE of what it takes to change the status quo. I think it is an oversimplification by the MSM (big business) to say that he is A) angry and/or B) unwilling to negotiate or compromise. I do hear him saying that he is unwilling to negotiate or compromise on WHO will be responsible for setting the parameters for how big business interacts with the populace in the marketplace.

" this lack of coverage today is really inexcusable."

No kidding! And this obsession with prison life borders on kinky.

Given Nader's knowledge of what big business has been allowed to perpetrate on this country, how could he endorse anyone other than Edwards?

MSNBC's weekend and holiday coverage = cheap and easy programming. They run it all night, too...after 8:00 PM, as someone said earlier.

That said, their readers and commentators often have trouble getting out of the way of the people we want to hear. Until Wolfe came on, I thought CNN's staff were doing a good job of staying 'out of the way'.

Renee, I don't disagree with you re: Richardson. His Diplomatic, Executive, and Energy bona fides are second to none. I qualified my comments with the words "competitive Dems". One thing about Richardson that bothers me, and I see this is myself too... he seems to be in such a hurry to prove how smart he is, that sometimes, his comments come off as hurried and not fully thought out. He (and I) need to remember the art of the "pause".

Mike Lord....

I concede that Richardson is not a very good campaigner and probably has a prayer's chance in hell of becoming president....

if I do change my mind to vote for him between now and Jan 8th, my vote will go to Hillary.....

harborwoman, I couldn't agree more. I love Chris Matthews, like a favorite uncle, but sometimes he just needs to shut up and listen for a minute. It's odd, his style is really different on his Sunday "Chris Matthews Show" on NBC. He's like a different person.

Renee...

I was trying very hard to NOT just stick up for my candidate. I really do think there is a difference between allowing room for businesses to operate and earn reasonable profits and allowing them to dominate the rules by which they manage every aspect of interaction with their consumers. I don't want politicians who are willing to allow that to any degree...which, of course, translates into my strongly favoring publicly financed election campaigns, and campaign finance reform that really is sufficient to make ownership of politicians a moot point. I believe Edwards to be a man who understands that the horse is out of the barn...business have been allowed to write their own rules and regs...and it is time to try to change that.

I'm also trying to take Mike's point to heart..."the art of the pause". Thinking it through, it's clear that the Edwards family believes in the products big business produces. You don't see or hear that Elizabeth is seeking alternative treatments for her cancer. To the contrary, when she mentions it at all, you get the clear understanding that she is undergoing conventional treatments. Having heard nothing about their 'green' home, I'm assuming that it was built with the same materials anyone else of their wealth might use. I don't think the Edwards position is that big business, in and of itself, is evil, but that allowing them the degree of control they've been allowed is a major problem for the future of most Americans.

Agreed, Mike. I, too, enjoy Matthews and find his weekend show to be his best. I especially like the "Tell me something I don't know" segment....

Craig,
How is Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton = Change?
Sounds like Obama or Edwards = Change for the Dems.

Ree and Patsi... you are almost in the world of conspiracy theorist... You need to expand you world and take a break for radical left entertainment.

Mike,

Edwards hasn't said immediate withdrawal from Iraq. He said 50,000 troops which is less than we sent for the surge. Then a goal of ten months for complete withdrawal but no promise.

The awful truth is that none of the candidates can PROMISE withdrawal simply because they don't know the conditions on the ground or for that matter what mess Bush might leave behind. Then there is the whole matter of Afghanistan and Pakistan. All the Democrats have given a realistic promise of diplomacy

HW....
I don't disagree with anything you said.....

I just have different priorities for why and who I'm throwing my vote to....

Renee...

Perhaps subliminally I'm trying to convince you to change your vote, but that's not my overt purpose with my posts. I'm just trying to think through my own choices, and my underlying reasons for those choices.

Jamie,

I'm a veteran of Gulf War I. Believe me, a goal of all troops out in 10 months IS an immediate withdrawal. And anyone who would PROMISE it should not be considered seriously for the Presidency.

I like Biden a lot too. He'll make a terrific VP.

What's it going to take, a complete, overwhelming slaughter of US GIs all at once to get the US out of Iraq?

So the deaths have dropped some..for now. Iraq is still a mess, and STILL the most dangerous place on Earth to exist in.

It's hard to imagine a complete collapse of US presence in Iraq , ala Vietnam, April 30, 1975, but who knows what turn the worm will take?

Half-promises by some of these candidates are not enough. Someone should promise total immediate withdrawal.

Let me assume some readers here are all for the McCain plan, and you believe in The Surge,and believe in "fighting in Iraq until victory."

Show me how you propose to pay for it without plunging the nation into a financial drain that will be catastrophic.

Maybe I don't understand finance, but I do recall Bill Clinton left office with the nation's coffers on the plus-side. When Old Bush 41 left office, I recall reading that the nation will never reduce the national debt, let alone balance the books.
Clinton did it.
Still, I guess "it don't mean nothin'", cuz the country was definitely headed towards record debt in 2004, yet Bush was re:elected.

Bear,

To quote Matthews, "Ha!"

I love that you gave him a piece of your mind. He probably doesn't get to hear it enough.

NEW THREAD

MLSan Diego: I am a Vietnam veteran and I hate to see US military lives lost , and so many wounded and burned horribly because of this war, fought on false premises, really, downright fabrications and plain lies.

I realize no candidates in serious contention have any plan to end the war, like...in a couple months after being sworn in.

I don't support Obama, because he's 2-faced. Against the war, then votes EVERY time to fund it. This disgusts me.

I posted on this last month...after Congress finally pulled the plug on Vietnam, and stopped funding , NO ONE , on either side of the aisle, lamented the fact that the war was over, nor seriously proposed resuming massive funding.

With all the numbers crunching, no one has been talking much about how Congress, restored to slim majority of Democratic power, has not even tried to pull out all the stops in ending the war..many of us feel betrayed.
I realize the numbers are not there to stop Bush, but cloture and other tactics were never even considered.

Dexter,

Thank you for your service.

The lack of moral leadership on the war from from Pelosi and Reid is truly heartbreaking.