Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Good Morning Ya'll,

This is not over Jamie. I am happy Obama did so well, but I'm no fool to think that its over now. New Hampshire is coming up and then South Carlina.

I think we are going to see upheaval until the end.

As far as Republicans? I think Huckabee will get knocked to second.

If I were Republican, I would flatten Giuliani and kick him to the curb, but then Thompson just got a big leg up and so you never know.

An Excellant take on what the outcome might mean, by Joseph Palermo

"Obama and Huckabee"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-a-palermo/obama-and-huckabee_b_79673.html

Whether Rahm Emanuel and the other traingulators want it or not -- the only way the Democrats will win in 2008 is with the support of the progressive left. And Obama is the only candidate who can make that a reality. He's here, so you Blue Dogs better get used to it!

Ed Rollins overheard trashing Romney in Iowa restaurant.....by Ann Carpenter

http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/13a3122e-dfd6-4d8a-81a3-bc8c6e11f550

sorry..... it's Amanda Carpenter

Iowa may be mixed bag for Rudy however reading the Dem blogs and press this AM seems that at this time group is taking opportunity to hit HRC and the difference between her and Obama.

First time I have read so much painting HRC almost as a republican in the eyes of the liberal left. Is this the beginning of the end of the Bush to Clinton to Bush to Clinton?

Genius - This is part of the master plan to make HRC more appealing to the masses and centric voter

If not then WARNING - The Clintons hate to lose and will respond in kind

Craig sorry going on about Huckabee instead of Giuliani.

But, did you know that Huckabee won districts in Demoine that were known Republican secular (want for better name) strongholds? These were expected to go to other candidates.

The only way I think it could happen was (1) Huckabee's personality and (2) his jesus for the poor, poppulist beliefs.

I think we are going to see more and more Red and Blue pull toward someone who is talking about taking care of the poor, middle class, etc.

I think we are going to see the Corporate elitists dressed in populists clothing by the time we hit the general.

I think we will also see "Rove" republicans swift boat Huckabee. Will he survive? Another David and Goliath Moment.

Sheila.
Interesting comments - looking to see the first responses within the Rebublican runners as NH is just around the corner. Huckabee dumb like a fox?

Of course Rudy is a non issue as by his choice he was never in the Iowa game.

Shelia,
"the only way the Democrats will win in 2008 is with the support of the progressive left."

With all due respect, the only way Democrats or Republicans will win in 2008 is with the support of the moderates that are within a standard deviation of the middle.

"I think we are going to see the Corporate elitists dressed in populists clothing by the time we hit the general."

LOL! You are spot-on.

Who can stop Obama?

http://www.newsweek.com/id/84290?GT1=10755

Thanks dnd,

Here's one more.

I believe we have been watching the bloom of greatness in Obama.

And we can either be afraid that he is NOT ready for the Presidency and go the safe way or we can say that his potential will trump the troubles ahead.

I for one am willing to stick with him and aid him along the way. Afterall, this is my country too.

Ping,
Agree that Rudy is a non-story since he avoided Iowa like he was allergic to corn. I think the bigger story is how well McCain did, given that he hardly ever went to Iowa.

Two key words that keep jumping out at me ...
Change and Hope, Hope for Change...
And the two that seem to have delivered this message to Iowa won last night.

Off to work...Best to all

Shelia,
My impression is that Obama is more sizzle than steak. I've yet to see a concrete plan about anything coming from his campaign. And I have no clue as to his potential. But a big part of the job is to inspire, And for those who are open to his soaring oratory, he can be very inspirational.

He certainly surprised a lot of pundits who predicted that the young-never-caucused-before crowd wouldn't show up last night...

congrats to the Obama supporters.....

too bad about Biden and Dodd.... but then.... winnowing the field and getting to a nominee is what this process is all about....

like Jamie... I think Obama needs more time before becoming leader of the free world..... unlike Jamie... I'd gladly vote for him if he becomes the nominee...

yup... NH is coming up..... but I still think the real contest is super duper Tuesday on Feb 5th.... this thing isn't over yet....

Dnd,

Go to his website. theres a lot of reading to be had there and then see if there is potential for PRIME.

I know this may come as a disappointment to many, but I will not be driving up to Wyoming tomorrow to be a trail spotter for the Republican caucus. Sorry...

dnd....

Are you kidding? ;0)

I awakened to find three emails from Repubs I know, all crowing over Obama's win....none of them would vote for a Democrat if they were being waterboarded....don't quite know what to make of them. They must have read Karl Rove's op-ed about how Obama could knock Hillary out of the race.

I'll certainly vote for him if he's the candidate, although I don't know if announcing that he thinks Arnold Schwarzenegger would be good for a cabinet position is the sort of change I'm looking for.

At any rate, congrats to Sheila and other supporters! And yes, it ain't over till it's over....

On another note, here's quite a story pointing a damning finger at NBC in the run-up to war. Keeping in mind, of course, that GE is one of the biggest war profiteers in history.

http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/19845/page1/?a=f

Great article Patsi,

Just remember one thing. Olberman is the only anchor with enough B!@#@ to speak out against. Loooooonnngggg before Matthews got on the bandwagon.

ABC kept very nonpartizan until Peter jennings left and now just look at the news department.

"ABC kept very nonpartizan until Peter jennings left and now just look at the news department."

Absolutely....and can you believe how Matthews keeps saying he was "always" against the war.....I don't recall him being against it in the beginning....

Sorry,

I know a lot of that article was about technology, but the flavor of it was about establishment and how they just don't have a clue.

Oh I'll vote for Obama if he is the nominee, but I reserve the right to be totally grouchy about it while looking for a Soprano willing to wax Matthews. :-)

The enormous turnout is very good news. I think it's great people turned out and I think it bodes well for November.

I don't understand why the Thompson surge isn't getting more attention.

Congratulations to all the agents of change.

I think organized labor was a big loser in the Iowa Caucus. They should have gone with one candidate
and it should have been Edwards.

Obama is not anti labor but he doesn't have the same passion for unions that they need to recover from the Shrubco years.

KGC

I"m with dnd. Obama is sizzle not steak. He has a passion for Obama, but it looks like he has the youth vote and they don't have the full realization of just how much the working class in this country has lost in the past 25 years.

Oh, by the way, GO KANSAS!

mornin' all.

Well that all happened quickly didn't it? I imagine Hillary's campaign is sorely disappointed by coming in third, and it must be a cold day in hell (it was 1 degree above when I left for work) because Zogby's last poll got it right. Be interesting to see what happens in NH. Things have been tightening there, as well, but I don't really think those stubborn independent minded yankees (mornin' Renee) will be swayed much by the corn farmers. But then again, I've been wrong before. Johnny boy certainly benefitted from Iowa, probably more than Obama - we'll see. I tend to agree with Renee - SDT is where the rubber really meets the road.

I don't see it here, but then again I haven't read the posts from last night. If it hasn't been mentioned, Chris Dodd has dropped out of the race.

Patsi....
I'm no fan of Matthews..... and making fun of him is such a delight.....
but Chris did state from the very beginning that he thought going into Iraq was a mistake..... of course.... that was back when he still had a shred of sanity.....

Clinton did officially come in third.... but to me, it was a tie between her and Edwards...... it's bad news for Hillary because she was the presumptive frontrunner..... it's bad news for Edwards because he's been campaigning in Iowa since 2004.... Hillary still has plenty of money...... Edwards will need to persuade people to give him more....

I really hope that young people continue to participate in this process..... I think that is a very good thing for this country....

as for the Republican side..... if Rush and Hannity are against Huckabee....
l find it hard to believe he won't be railroaded somewhere down the road....

I found
wonamini | January 3, 2008 11:49 PM
post very interesting. She talks about the power of grass roots organizing and what it can do. There were several comments about unusual aspects of the Obama ground organization but I can't find more.

Building on the idea of empowering people in their neighborhoods is very powerful. This is the Obama
experience. The contrast is very interesting between
the candidates. Edwards "I will fight for you" and Obama "I will teach you to fight for yourself"

Yeah Patsi, those Jayhawks had a spectacular season, capped off by winning the Orange Bowl.

Renee,

Matthews actually did me a favor last night ... more free time to read. I no longer have any reason whatsoever to watch MSNBC except for KO and when Craig is on.

Jamie.... good for you.... I've been doing more reading and less tv watching lately too..... that's how I got through Oprah's 973 page book in only 10 days....

and for the rest of you Tweety fans..... here's a link to no quarter.... read the article entitled "Iowa, A Pimple on the Gnat's Ass".... it's very short.... and to read what Larry Johnson thinks about Matthews is priceless!

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/

ps.... morning Pogo....

Actually, Tweety was a Bush (and war) cheerleader right from the beginning.. perhaps head cheerleader. He fawned and fawned and fawned. I still think it was a man-crush.

Renee,
Larry Johnson is in the tank for Hillary, so it's no surprise that he wrote what he did. He'd probably would have a different take on Iowa meaning "diddly" had Hillary won.

Jamie,
Welcome to the "just say no to MSNBC" club!
Tweety is a mouth wrapped in an enigma. There are three (almost) distinct faces of Tweety: 1) the Hardball face, where he is only peripherally listening to his guests and want to be the star of the show, 2) the Sunday show, where it appears he actually listens to his reporter-guests, and 3) when he is the guest.

Of these, the only face where he doesn't display manic ADD behavior is when he is a guest. He can be downright thoughtful.

Renee -- thanks for the info about Matthews.....I really didn't remember him saying anything. So I'll give him props for that!

Interesting quote from Left Coaster about the Obama/Lieberman connection.

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/

"If Sen. Obama’s supporters want to argue that he is more progressive than any Republican running for President - I agree wholeheartedly. Will he be a better President than any of the Republicans? Absolutely. What I have a problem with is that he is systematically undermining the foundations and icons of the progressive movement using Republican talking points - just like his mentor Joe Lieberman. There will be a high cost to pay if he continues down this trajectory and it’ll be too late to change this trajectory once he is in office."

Oops...tylenol disagrees about Matthews....we've got to get to the bottom of this....ha!

After the results came in last night, I thought: it ain't over 'till it's over.

Here's Hillary speaking to her staffers about the loss in Iowa:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=N2YWHBFx3Zg

I think Joe Trippi misses something in his analysis of the Iowa results. John did about 1/2%betterthan Hillary, and if he'stalking rejection, 70% of the Iowans who caucused with the demsrejected Johns's message as well. After spending 2years meeting every Iowan, I don't think he's got as much to crow about as he thinks.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/edwards_adviser_trippi_we_held_our_own_against_hillary.php

NH will likely be a topugher sell for OBama and Edwards. They have a larger deficit (according to the polls anyway) 4-6 points for Obama and 16-20 forEdwards relative to Clinton to overcome, and the process isn't as manipulable since it's more like, well, voting. I think the key for them will be to get indies and repugs to vote for them, but I don't really expect a repeat of Iowa there. What's your take Renee? Gone down to the local coffee shop to get a feel for how people are reacting to the IA results? If not, get moving and come back with a report.

After almost 2 years of solid campaigning in Iowa produced a 70% rejection of Edwards' message by caucuses goers. Now Edwards who is left with little funding, no support base, and little coverage, is not expected to do well in either NH or his home state of SC. It is time for you rose color glass wearing, pollyanna supporters of John "PB" Edwards to wish him a fond farewell, and get on the Hillary bandwagon.

Obama's win last night was due to the 17 to 29 years old voters, a group that composed 57% of his voters, and if you broke that down into individual age groups, I would suspect the majority of that group to be between 17 and 25. In other words, those who don't work, have very little real life experience are voting for a individual who exhibits many of the same traits. Although coming in 3rd place, Hillary couldn't be in a better position going into NH & SC. NH & SC voters are not offended by down and dirty politics, as they are in Iowa, so I am hoping to see General Hillary go on a death and destruction tour. The orders of the day for this tour, "Take no prisoners".

yeah fry
the overall result of the Iowa caucuses
Democrats big winners

your side LOSER

KGC

How is your weather? It looks as if you are going to get walloped today.

I've got a couple of questions for the Iowa contingent (when you wake up!)

1. Where did the 15% threshold come for splitting the viable and non-viable candidates? Why not 10% or 20%?

2. Do you think there is any correlation, positive or negative, for the results and the attack ads aired in Iowa?

3. Did you get "focus group" type polls as Claire described in the last thread?

FD

In case you didn't notice, turnout almost trippled in some places and they were all reregistered Reps, Independent and young. If that trend continues, the Republican party will be lucky to take a state.

You can thank this century's King George for the destruction of your party and the beginning of the revolution.

Fry, OMG, we agree in large part. But I don't think Edwards is broke, yet. As of 9/30 he was reporting $30 million in donations, almost 40%of what Clinton and Obama were reporting. I don't know how much he spent in the last 3 months in Iowa, but I doubt it was nearly that much. I do agree with your point about Obama's support in IA - if history is a teacher, he can't expect that kind of support when it is based on getting out and goint to voting stations rather than caucus parties. That group doesn't vote like us baby boomers and our forebears. And I really don't expect so much of a death and destruction approach from Clinton. Surely her knives will be sharpened against Obama, but I don't get the sense that she will do much more than respond to attacks against her. But then again, it is politics.

"I don't see it here, but then again I haven't read the posts from last night. If it hasn't been mentioned, Chris Dodd has dropped out of the race.'

As reported on Imus this morning, Biden has also left the campaign trail. I look at both Dodd and Biden departure in the similar light as what the old and dying Eskimos do. Hop on a ice flow and float away. Really such a waste of time time and money, they had to know they didn't stand a snowballs chance in hell of competing, just to much baggage, they should have pulled the plug months ago.

Now off to pay the workers.

Thaks. Fry - I did go back and saw where Craig had dropped that news last night. Does anyone know whether Dodd or Biden have thrown their support behind anyone? I kinda doubt it, but if you claim they have, please provide a link to a source.

Can't cite the sources, but I heard these things last night...

Dodd dropped his presidential bid and asked his supporters to support Obama

Dodd camp denied asking his supporters to support any other candidate

Biden dropped his campaign; heard nothing about any request as to who his supporters should back

Gravel dropped his presidential bid

I heard last night that Romney was blaming his 2nd place finish on the fact that he is Mormon. Anyone else hear that?

Top of the day peeps. On to NH!

Can't let this one go.

Jamie,
"Reps, Independent and young"

Rep 8%. These wondered of the reservation, or they were on a mission to vote for Obama to make sure he won. This is similar to providing a false sense of security to the enemy to ensure they don't see the blinding lights of the oncoming freight train.

Independent 20%. They expected 40%

Young(?) 57%. This 17 to 29 year old group. See my remarks above.

Now I'm late paying these workers, no telling what damage they have done. Should send them all back to Canada.

NEW THREAD!!!

Craig I think the big story about last night is how the female vote broke. What are you and other members of the pundit class saying about this? Also how did your appointment go with the surgeon?