Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

boo! hi everyone

I dont think Hilary's very brief appearance on Letterman last night constituted an endorsement.

Undecided? .. I think it's more that they're "not telling."

soooo close.

Ty, Carter came in 2nd to "undeclded" in '76, so that may not be the case.

This kinda says it, no?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/03/us/politics/03voices.html?hp

Too many good choices for Dems, hard choices for Reps.

Richardson's campaign denies the obama second choice vote

http://www.openleft.com/showComment.do;jsessionid=3E74316838F261993E775C25CED0CEAE?commentId=24139

I think ty is right. They just like jerking the media's chain.

Cheryl S.
interesting posting about the difference between giving to Obama's campaign and Hillary's......

tylenol..... I think that's what happens here in NH also...... I do think most Iowans and NHerites have made up their minds already..... they just don't like the MSM much (at least I know that's the case in NH) and like to confuse and surprise them......

Meh, maybe saying "I'm undecided" is the polite way of telling the Hillary or Huckabee volunteers that you're voting for Obama or McCain. That, and then you don't have to explain yourself beyond "I'm just not impressed with any of them yet".

the undecided thing is crap.

they have made up their minds, the media just finds the six people who haven't...like when Obama used that unfortunate woman who has no changed her mind four times

I'm just catching up, as work has been so rude to interrupt.

pogo,
"I'll bet the 10 cent coffee you had tasted as good."
I have a theory about this. A significant part of the taste and flavor of coffee comes from aroma. Ever notice that a significant number of people who buy coffee at FourBux sip their coffee through those plastic lids, thereby restricting the aroma component. People in coffee shops, diners, etc. drink coffee in mugs, getting the full benefit of aroma. Takeaway: if you pay four bux for coffee, take off the damn plastic lid!

As to your question about the top two being within the MOE and the 2nd and 3rd being within the MOE but the 1st and 3rd not being within the MOE, there is no transitivity with this. But I think Spike had a good point. If you change the confidence interval to 90%, everybody's swimming in the same MOE pool. But to Craig's thought about people not being able to make up their mind, the takeaway is that the polls may have marginal meaning. We'll know in about a dozen hours...

I think a political science study of polls, particularly in the past..say..10 years.. will tell you..that most people are fed up with elections beginning as soon as the last one ended, and by the time they get to caucuses (cauk-eye?) they're even more fed up. They've been calling every damn Tuesday "Super Tuesday" since 2006... no wonder people say "oh I'm undecided" when polsters call. I would too!

Well I don't see HOW anyone could NOT be decided after a year of this. I mean how one dementional could we have become?

No, they know.

Interesting take on the Iowa caucuses and NH primary by David Broder.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/02/AR2008010202489.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

He may have something, there.

Wanna see how people could still be undecided, Look at the Pew and Fox survey results. People are changing their minds as they hear stuff.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm

I still don't believe it, Pogo. I think they may SAY they're changing their minds... in the words of Gregory House, People Lie.

because Hillary doesnt live close to Katz :P

Rudee
"I am running a national campaign"

I guess Iowa and New Hampshire have left the union.

Rudy knows he would have been dead even before tonight if he had tried......he's going to lose. America's Mayor is dreamin.

You may be right, ty, but if they are, at least on the Dem side, they are doing it in a systematic way that is making the polls tighten. I know we've all decided (??) but I'm not sure there aren't a substantial number of folks in the middle who are happy enough with all the Dem frontrunners and are hedging on a firm preference based on caucus/early primary results.

Good choice.

pogo,
Someone needs to pin a note to Broders sweater and send him out to the dog track.

"That system empowers the activists and those with built-in organizational ties who can mobilize people to leave their homes for a couple of hours on a weeknight and motivate them to declare a public -- not private -- preference for a candidate."

Hello? Only the dems need to declare in public.

"The turnout is ridiculously small, barely 20 percent of the eligible voters. And those who choose to caucus are hardly representative of the population as a whole."

This is true. Those who caucus are those who've taken the time to closely scrutinize the candidates. Retail politics gives a much better notion of what a candidate is about, rather than slick marketing campaigns that is seen is highly populous states.

she's not a new yawker

I thought you were mr open borders

um.. Bri? yep.. ya wouldnt call a man a shrew and I've known plenty of shrewish (that's NOT anti-semetic! lol) men..

"(does using the word shrew mark me as a sexist?)"

That's only the latest oink from you....it's obviously impossible for you to talk about politics without snarking about the female candidate in sexist terms. I take that as either a sign of poor breeding or a lack of originality.

The only person I heard say dumber things than you do today is the woman from USA Today who said that if Edwards doesn't win Iowa he's finished.

Of course by even responding to you, I have played your game, which is to make every thread about you.

dnd, he should have noted the difference between the rep & dem caucuses - I'm sure he knows the difference. Despite that oversight, I thought the differences he noted between IA & NH were interesting. I think his take on NH voters is pretty reflective of what I saw when I lived there. I'll grant you that the caucus goers may indeed be the IA voters who have paid more attention to the candidates, or the ornery who made up their minds early despite what the candidates have shown them (or more likely, some mix of the 2) - and in many cases have probably seen them up close and personal, but the IA results don't seem to sway the other early contests dramatically and aren't very predictive of who will win the nomination, and in the end, for better or for worse, the slick marketing seen in the more populous states tends to produce the winners in the long haul. If I had to choose between the winner of the IA caucuses and the winner of the NH primary as who I believe stands the best chance of winnning in Nov. (which is what it's all about to me), I'd usually go with NH.

Craig -->>"What does it take for an undecided Iowa voter TO DECIDE?"

I've always been partial to coconut cream pie myself; however, cookies are normally more prevalent at the caucuses. In that case, make mine oatmeal chocolate chip and I'm all yours!!!

Seriously, there are a lot of people I've talked to that really don't know who they're going to support. The candidate's positions are so similar in so many areas, it's starting to resemble the "best of breed" competition at a dog show.

For undecided voters, its gone past electability. Many of these people are truly conflicted. When you dig past the surface issues with these people, almost without exception, its coming down to their assessment of the degree of trust they have in each candidate.

... and we still worry about whether women have the temperament to serve as our leader.

Bear -->> "What is stopping the candidates from feeding/paying, then bussing supporters to vote for them tonight. Would that be legal for them to spend their monies on this??"

It's legal, but considered by most Democrats here to be unethical...The Republican candidates do this to the nth degree for the Ames Straw Poll that is held in August prior to the caucuses.

Okay, here is an example of an undecided caucus goer: My boss is a "no party" voter and has never been to a caucus. Her husband leans Repub, she leans Dem. I have guided her to the places to learn about all the candidates, D and R. She has liked the 2nd tier Dem candidates for a few months, then decided she was leaning Hillary.

Today she told me she didn't think she would caucus because she is firmly undecided since there are things about all the Dem candidates she likes. I convinced her to go and listen to what was said and I bet she will decide.

We have an excellent slate of candidates. They all bring a lot to the table. It is hard to describe but for some of us these candidates have become members of our families.

Some were asking what I would be wearing tonight. I will be in a white tutle neck, bright royal blue fleece vest, oh, and I'll be in a wheelchair. For those outdoor shots, I'll be wearing a bright royal blue coat with black sleeve trim, and oh, I'll be in a wheelchair. I have grown quite attached to my wheelchair :)

I am might be at the Hillary party since Wes will be there but it depends on if I can get there at a reasonable time. We will be discussing platform planks, electing committee members, etc. after the presidential delegates are elected and those totals called in. After that we have to go to the other side of town to turn in paper work, then downtown for the parties.

Today's column by CC "Decidedly Un-decided" being featured on Huffington Post.......

For once we agree. Obama was making it out to be a negative and I don't think it is. There is a difference between losing your temper and justified well directed anger.

I agree that many who are on the undecided camp do have a favorite, but didn't want to committ to the polsters, as they may change their mind. They don't want to discourage anyone that may have something to add to the process. Anyone who takes the time and effort to attend tonite will be knowledgeable about the candidates.

I will be working at the caucus tonite changing party registrations, should be interesting to see how many repubs and indep. want to participate.

Can't wait. Won't be long now.

Jamie,
"Given the pot shots at Hillary that were more than a little below the belt, it adds up to a mean streak in that man that disturbs me a bit."

Was this before or after the Hillary campaign called Obama a coke-head?

dnd
obama's campaign started the personal attacks through David Geffen

why not just start off each post with some inane anti Clinton attack...oh right that is what you do

Cheryl Talbert attended Romney’s morning speech to employees of Principal Financial Group in Des Moines and said that as a moderate Republican, she likes him and Arizona Sen. John McCain. But she planned to attend a Democratic caucus, in what she called a ”defensive move” against a Clinton presidency.

“I’m going to vote for Obama, as an anti-Hillary vote,” she said, “and I have two friends doing the same thing.”
via tayor marsh's radio show

Look you guys,

6 to one half a dozen to the other. I can't believe how thin skined the audience.

Play Hardball and you get hit hard some times.

Obama has attacked lawyers for their corporate work
yet his wife is a corporate attorney

Obama attacked unions for participating in the political process but he had no problem hauling Oprah around and appearing on her show.

And speakingof thin skinned...he through his campaign thinks no one is allowed say boo about them without obama et all crying foul

and if he is not the candidate t will walk away as sore losers and contribute nothing to a dem victory in 2008

Well, I knew it would be busy today here, but I see we still don't know who the Iowans will decide is best for us.
Just a few more hours and we'll know. I'll be scopin' C-Span lookin' for zoey.

Craig's "Decidely undecided" tagline made me think about a man standing in front of the tomatoes at a salad bar in a steakhouse.
He stood there totally blocking the line, reaching an inch and withdrawing his hand and muttering and pondering...I just gave up and sat down at my table...finally an employee asked the man if he was "all right."
The guy said he just couldn't decide between cherry tomatoes and sliced tomatoes.
Kinda like basing your selection on Obama's versus Edwards' healthcare promises...same thing, just a little different form.

And I too lament that Biden , Dodd, Kucinich, and Richardson are finished.

I now join the Edwards circle.

Well, Sheila...."Thin skinned" isn't what this is about. It seems to me -- and recent messages and threads show it -- that sexist comments and framing are still considered fair game. That makes me sad because I worked in the movement for ten years and thought we'd made some progress.

why do tweety and his ilk hate america
via atrios

So Absurd

Tweety:

MATTHEWS: I think in terms of world news, it's the second headline. Maybe it's the biggest news domestically. Because if you look at the numbers as they're shaping up, it looks to me like even if Hillary Clinton does manage to squeak it tonight -- I don't think she will -- she's been rejected here in Iowa by two-thirds of the Democratic Party. She is lucky to get 33 percent.

...

And after all that knowledge, we say, by 2-to-1, no. I mean, I'm talking about the Democratic Party participants in the caucuses tonight. That's a resounding rejection if she only gets, like, a low 30 percent. Very resounding.

So if Hillary gets 33 percent "she's been rejected here in Iowa by two-thirds of the Democratic Party."

What of Saint McCain?

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you -- let me ask you this about the John McCain. Andrea [Mitchell, NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent], you first. John McCain looks like he might be in the position that Gary Hart was in back in '84. Get a high percentage, a teen number, say, poll 18 tomorrow night and be the big hero tomorrow night?

If McCain is rejected by 82% of caucusgoers he's a "big hero."

Tweety just repeated the Clinton/two thirds crap on Hardball just now.

and if Obama were to win...wouldn't the same thing be true. Tweety is the biggest ass on the planet

dnd

Hillary's camp never called Obama a "cokehead". There was one person not directly affiliated with the campaign who quoted something Obama had said about himself both in print and verbally, and true to form Obama whined "unfair" and with the help of Tweety turned it into an issue. He is a whiner and if I get stuck with him for President that's okay because he is ten times better than any of the Republicans, but I won't like it.

I am as femminist as the rest of you Patsi. Been there done that, have the long years of earning the badge.

having said that, I didn't choose my candidate just because of Gender. I felt the one I chose showed what I wanted above all else. Freshness. My choice.

I get mad as well when sexism shows its ugly head and it has here on this site as well.

But, Hardball is Hardball. Harball in Politics is not for the faint of heart and Clinton is not thin skinned. But some of the reactions on her behalf are. Just the way it is.

This is Politics.

KGC,

I don't think Oprah would appreciate you calling her on par with a Union. If she were as thin skinned as your impression of Obama, she would think you made an overt fat joke.

I believe that if a person is willing to spend HER fame and HER money to support a candidate she should be applauded. Too many of the filthy rich are only looking to position themselves for further riches. If she is, at least she is doing a good job hiding it.

As for Tweety, I think for the most part, we have rejected him as an ignorant, rude jackass. We know that during the election cycle he breaks out his GOP knee pads and stocks up on Spanish Fly for his ever more frequent "interviews"/dates with McCain. Do we really think undecided voters watch him? I think Imus will have more influence because he never shouts down his guests and he will point out bullshit at a rate far exceeding any of the cable new outlets...

And just to add to the mix.

Some of the comments about Obama, I haven't witnessed and I've been watching and listening and disecting him from day one.

Leads me to believe that some in defense of their candidate have read a situation diferantly than I.

Shall I make a big deal about it? No. I don't believe I will. But Have you seen me make a slam toward other Democratic candidates? No, I won't do that either. I believe in good debate with good facts.

Katy Crack:
My nephew's girlfriend , I found out, permanently left Gov. Rod Blagojevich's office (she was media spokesperson on healthcare issues, among other things) to assume leadership of "Illinois Women for Obama". I thought she just took a leave for that job...she must be expecting O to go far...
also, my brother straightened me out...Michelle Obama worked at the same large law firm that my sis-in-law works at now, just before my sis-in-law started. I don't believe Michelle Obama practices law now, does she?

Sheila,

Those of us objecting to Matthews don't mind the criticism of a candidate. It is that he twists everything into a negative about her. It approaches a mania on his part to literally never pay a compliment and to almost seem overjoyed with anything that is a slam. If you do nothing but count the negatives about her as opposed to the other candidates it approaches being totally unfit to be on the air as a political commentator in the same league as a Rush for truth twisting.

Oh jamie,

You know I hate Tweety too. I hate the way he talks about Clinton. I'm talking about that.

Correction......lol

I'm, NOT Taling about that. I was reacting to some unfounded comments here.

Dex

I think Michelle Obama took a leave from her job --I think she was general counsel for a hospital in Chicago

Good for your niece. I'll be she is in Iowa working her butt off.

When I was young I worked on Frank Church's primary campaign and it was a lot of fun. In the democratic primaries for president I have never supported the person who won.

I think there was a general problem on the intertubes--

The war is forgotten, some must think it is over, but in my birth-county in Indiana, soldiers are comprising part of the largest military deployment from Indiana since World War II.

The two young soldiers pictured here with their dad are partying at my UAW Local hall, UAW Local 164.

http://www.kpcnews.com/articles/2008/01/03/news/the_evening_star/doc477ced6e4af52319285362.txt

Jamie,
Sheehen was affiliated with the Clinton campaign (though not any more!). Let me refresh your memory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Astujv_WAy8&NR=1

BTW all, if I say something critical of Romney, that doesn't mean I'm anti-Mormon. If I say something critical of Huckabee, it doesn't mean I'm anti-evangelical. If I say something critical of Richardson or Obama it doesn't mean I'm racist. And if I say something critical of Hillary, that does not mean I'm sexist.

" Hardball is Hardball. Harball in Politics is not for the faint of heart and Clinton is not thin skinned. But some of the reactions on her behalf are. Just the way it is.
This is Politics. "

Absolutely agree, Sheila....but, if the code words and snark aimed at Hillary were changed to racial and aimed at Obama....think what would happen. You and I would be screaming from the rafters....and so would everyone else. There would be no way to say that politics is just hardball so suck it up. That's how I'm looking at it.

OMG ! I am SHOCKED ! Please, someone fan me and get me some water!!

LOS ANGELES — Cameras caught Lindsay Lohan taking a swig out of a bottle of champagne on New Year's Eve in Italy, TMZ reported Thursday.

dnd -- remember that old Hillary-as-Big Brother Youtube thing, where a female athlete throws the hammer at Hillary? That was straight from a member of Obama's campaign. I heard the guy laughing about it on a show just yesterday....

KGC,
"In the democratic primaries for president I have never supported the person who won."

That's unfortunate. Made me think, does anyone know the last winner in Iowa that made it to the white house?

NEW THREAD

dnd...didn't Bill Clinton AND Jimmuh both win in Iowa?

dnd
a little context please
the washington post raised the drug issue in a story
last January.
this interview with shaheen was with a washintonpost reporter who raised the issue.

so the post raised the issue last year, tweety covered it on his show last January, msgop has it on their webpage and then Shaheen is asked bout it in an interview with the post and he is the villian...

context

Patsi,
"dnd -- remember that old Hillary-as-Big Brother Youtube thing, where a female athlete throws the hammer at Hillary? That was straight from a member of Obama's campaign. I heard the guy laughing about it on a show just yesterday...."

Haven't seen it. But from the sound of it is yet another reason I can't stand political attack ads.

But Patsi,

I saw that and said, "Here we go" Then I saw that whole,

"He use to do Drugs" thing and didn't think "Racist" I just thought, more Hardball between candidates. I liked Clintons way of side stepping it.

I've enjoyed the dance between these two. 99% of the time they have both been supreme in the dance without being asses both.

They've both played great politics.

*fanning all of you...especially poor shocked dex!*

Hey! I'm turning here for good political commentary...not more in-fighting. I wonder if tensions are this high in the various campaign hq's in Iowa tonight!?!

Bill Clinton did not compete in Iowa and then went on to let the media spin second place as a win in NH

NEW THREAD !!!!!