Crunch Time for Obama

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If Iowans show up at the Democratic presidential nominating caucuses on Thursday and do anything like what today’s Des Moines Register survey suggests could happen, then Barack Obama might not be mortal.

The Illinois senator, according to the historically accurate newspaper poll, is attracting unprecedented numbers of first-time caucus participants and independents who are driving him to the top of the pack in the Register’s findings. Whether those voters actually invest the time and effort it takes to caucus for Obama in Iowa’s bizarre process will test the real drawing power of this political super nova.

If Obama wins Iowa by harnessing a dramatic influx of new and non-partisan voters, his bid would instantly be deemed a force of nature, more of a movement than a campaign – and an electable one at that.

More Iowa Polls: Democrats / Republicans

 

    Comments

  1. happy new year everyone....oh my aching feet!!!

    Craig, can't wait to see if he does it. This sure is real Horserace for the primaries. I don't remember such a cliff hanger in my life time.

    Time to get ready for the chili and hotdog party ala billionaire. Later!

    Posted by: Sheila Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 6:23 AM

  2. Happy New Year C-Listers!

    ...and good luck to my guy Obama. Hopefully he wont pull any crazy Hucksterbee press conferences.

    -Hipster

    Posted by: redst3 Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 6:34 AM

  3. Dexter and Harborwoman,

    Carrie Underwood did win the American Idol a few years ago. I think she was after that big black guy. She is having a very nice career in country music winning a lot of awards for excellence.

    yo soy Horsedooty!

    Posted by: horsedooty | January 1, 2008 7:07 AM

  4. Just thinking on this New Year's morning about how easily a candicacy can be destroyed by the press. Several times in the past few days I've heard or read people referring to a "final blow" to a candidate as being a "Dean scream."

    Dean scream is now part of the political language, a frame as it were. I cannot describe how angry that makes me.

    I hope we turn a corner in 2008....

    CNN removed all background noise, while Howard Dean was trying to be heard over a screaming crowd. The network then played the clip ad nauseum....about the second time I heard it, while I was solidly in Kerry's camp, something bothered me about the clip. Then I realized it was that there were hundreds of people in that room, and there was no sound coming from them. Finally, after every network and major morning show had picked up this clip, done it to death and made Howard Dean a laughing stock, CNN admitted that it was tampered with. I saw the show when they finally played it the way it should have sounded. It was nothing like the "Dean scream" -- it was a candidate making sure he was heard over the crowd.

    But once was the only time I heard any real talk of the fact that this was a distortion of the news. I don't think CNN specifically set out to bury Howard Dean....but I think the media has sunk to the place where they are willing to do anything for a ratings point or to stir up controversy.

    When this kind of duplicity affects our system.....watch out.

    Posted by: Patsi | January 1, 2008 8:16 AM

  5. I too was a very big Kerry supporter and I vividly recall seeing that dean clip maybe ---what----60 times on CNN in the week before NH.

    I also remember watching it live that night and thinking- this dude just did himself in.

    Huckabee's meltdown- if it comes now or later- will be his fault, I think.

    Posted by: redst3 Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 8:37 AM

  6. Dean was gaining popular support....he had to be stopped......CNN, and then others did the dirty work. No more Dean.

    How and when will they stop Ron Paul? He seems to be gaining popular support......

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 8:44 AM

  7. ron paul and mccain signs sprouting like mushrooms in SC lowcountry........still have seen only One Huccabus, and One Rudy........

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 8:48 AM

  8. Im a little tired of Obama.....but it looks as if he's gaining popular support.......

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 9:01 AM

  9. Good morning all. Happy New Year. Seeing Sheila's greeting, I couldn't help but think of the Leslie Bricusse song, "I Hate People"

    When I see the indolent classes
    Sitting on their indolent asses
    Gulping ale from indolent glasses

    It's a great song if you happen to wake up less thatn joyful this New Year

    http://lyricsplayground.com/alpha/songs/xmas/ihatepeople.shtml

    Posted by: Jamie | January 1, 2008 9:15 AM

  10. Hate to say it, but Obama is starting to bore me. There just doesn't seem to be real depth or substance there. Maybe the impression is better in person.

    Posted by: Jamie | January 1, 2008 9:25 AM

  11. on a previous subject.......Manson was innocent of the murders......Tex Watson was bitter because he was just a sideman while Charlie was king of the compound.... Tex decided to pull off a big one to depose him.....Charlie didnt send anyone anywhere, he had a sweet gig for a prison kid and didnt want ANYthing to upset the apple cart......Tex, on the other hand.........
    and Bugliosi is a twerp.

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 9:29 AM

  12. Happy New Year everyone.

    Shelia,
    "Time to get ready for the chili and hotdog party ala billionaire."
    Is that beans and wienies with Dom Perignon?

    Jamie,
    "It's a great song if you happen to wake up less thatn joyful this New Year"
    I wake up joyful every day. It just goes downhill fast from there ;-)

    BTW, Moet is great, but closer to home, particularly for you, is Domain St. Michelle. Really good and reasonably priced.

    Posted by: dnd | January 1, 2008 9:56 AM

  13. "How and when will they stop Ron Paul? He seems to be gaining popular support......"

    I've been trying to figure out how Fox is justifying kicking Ron Paul off their debate....I couldn't support the man personally -- but he sure as hell has raised some money. Maybe Fox just won't allow any dissent on war...

    Posted by: Patsi | January 1, 2008 10:05 AM

  14. Fox does what they're told......they dont have to show you no stinkin' justifications......

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 10:07 AM

  15. Happy New Year, Craig, and all.

    Posted by: colleen | January 1, 2008 10:17 AM

  16. (Ohhhhhhh...big yawn, big stretch)

    Good morning, everyone!!

    HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
    ______________

    sturgeone...LOL @ "no stinkin' justifications......"

    Posted by: LushIsLinda Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 10:24 AM

  17. 10:09 Edwards on CNN

    yo soy Horsedooty!

    Posted by: horsedooty | January 1, 2008 11:08 AM

  18. Happy New Year!

    I see Obama is once again whinning because he is not everyone's first choice

    "And top union officials who support Obama’s rivals are in turn accusing the Illinois Democrat, who once sought their endorsements, of trying to damage labor’s political role.

    “I’m taken aback that somebody like Obama would think that Oprah Winfrey has a greater right to participate in the political process than the four million people I represent,” said Edward J. McElroy, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, which has spent $799,619 on Sen. Hillary Clinton’s behalf, referring to the television host’s high-profile support for Obama. “It’s sour grapes. It sounds just like the charges the Republicans make.”

    He is a sore loser and will not help the Democratic candidate if he loses.

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 1, 2008 11:14 AM

  19. Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 1, 2008 11:25 AM

  20. One of my favorite events takes place on New Year's Day...the Mummer's Parade.
    http://myphl17.trb.com/

    I stood in the cold and watched it in person.

    my other favorate parade is the DoDah...

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 1, 2008 11:30 AM

  21. just saw bill clinton on c-span.......that guy could talk a dog off a meat wagon.......

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 11:31 AM

  22. one more thing before the bloody mary's start

    traditionally the Des Moine Register Poll has included a sample of 15% indepedents this poll includes 40%

    I don't think it is necessarily as accurate as past polls

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 1, 2008 11:34 AM

  23. "A Tale of Dirty Political Tricks Makes the Case for Election Reform"...

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/01/opinion/01tue3.html?th&emc=th

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 1, 2008 12:28 PM

  24. Is MSNBC going broke? How can they make any claim to being a NEWS channel with nothing but sleezy crime documentaries for yesterday and today.

    Posted by: Jamie | January 1, 2008 12:35 PM

  25. Jamie.....somebody pointed out earlier they're the only "24 hour a day news network" which goes home at 10 pm and for week-ends and holidays........lol

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 12:43 PM

  26. Obama slams Gore and Kerry

    Making an argument for his electability, Obama said, "I don't want to go into the next election starting off with half the country already not wanting to vote for Democrats -- we've done that in 2004, 2000," according to a person at the event (rush transcript).

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | January 1, 2008 12:44 PM

  27. Jamie et al...

    Obama on CNN right now.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 1, 2008 12:48 PM

  28. from a purely economic standpoint I'd wager that msnbc is surely missing some of that old Imus income.......

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 1, 2008 12:54 PM

  29. Happy 2008 gang!

    boy did Rick and I get drunk last night and then we drove home too.....

    just kidding..... we always go to our neighbors..... which means our vehicle of choice is our own 2 feet.....

    I'm not making any predictions (except that Hillary will win big on Feb 5th)....
    I'm getting excited about seeing the outcome of the Iowa caucuses.... it just time to see some voting.....

    last night (there were 8 of us) the political talk was mostly about how long the campaigning seemed this time around..... the consensus was that we would at least know the Dem candidate on Feb 5th and then the general election would feel like forever..... all of us just wanted to see the Bush cabal the hell out of the WH and a Democrat take his place....

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 1, 2008 1:03 PM

  30. Here is my fantasy for the news channels that don't want to give news today (or after 8pm):

    All-day back-to-back films of the ALL candidates' COMPLETE speeches this fall/winter. You know, 9am-10am a Joe Biden Iowa appearance, then 10-11 Ron Paul Hour, then Richardson Hour, etc. Rerun them, or replace with newer speeches, for late night and weekend viewing.
    I do watch the cable news stations, but even with hours of coverage, I think I only hear Joe Biden's name on The Lehrer NewsHour on PBS in the few minutes when Shields/Brooks (BOTH) declare him a great candidate.

    Posted by: Tabi Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 1:16 PM

  31. BTW....
    after 3 winters of warmer than normal temps and little snow (we were all wondering if our ski industry would survive), NH has had a record amount of snow for December 07......

    and it's snowing again...... there's 8-10 inches expected to fall today in my region...... thank god we've had rain storms in between that have washed some of the snow away or I'd feel like I was walking down a tunnel while walking down my driveway.......

    I love snow...... but I'm beginning to understand what it feels like to live in Buffalo..... and I never want to live there....

    oh snow god....... enough already!...... dammit!

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 1, 2008 1:25 PM

  32. I like Joe Biden, why didn't he go on Imus in the Morning, when it returned to the Air waves last month?

    Joe promised he isn't running for vice president, what is he running a stealth campaign?

    The middle east is in transition, don't we need someone who is familar with foreign affairs? Someone with some experience. I keep hearing the Democrats humping entitlements, mostly domestic concerns, we need someone who puts national security up front and center. Burying our heads in the sand, and ignoring growing threats overseas, during the last Clinton Administration is what got us in this shape, in the first place.

    Posted by: Ree | January 1, 2008 1:31 PM

  33. I know Ann Seltzer who conducts the Iowa Poll. Ann is a friend of mine. However, the final sample of respondents in the latest Iowa Poll really puzzles me.

    As someone pointed out earlier, there were a LOT of Independents in the sample -- almost 10% more than are registered in the state. Also, the number of first time caucus-goers is much higher than the historical average.

    David Yepsen does a nice job of pointing out the softness of support across the poll results:

    http://tinyurl.com/2qq2do

    A note about Obama's campaign....I've been saying for months now how remarkably similar his campaign and supporters remind me of Howard Dean's campaign. Many are young, and have been drawn to Obama's campaign based primarily on his rhetoric and charisma.

    It will be interesting to see if this group actually shows up to caucus in the projected numbers this time, or -- like Dean's supporters last time -- their actual behaviors don't measure up to their to their stated intentions..
    .

    Posted by: Spike Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 1:55 PM

  34. We just got back from a Richardson event. We drove over an hour in white-out conditions to a sports bar (one of few bars) on New Year's morning in a very conservative dutch town (10,000+ population).

    There were about 12-15 people at the event and several members of the press. Bill gave a great talk and then talked to small groups of undecided caucus goers.

    There were a couple of Republicans in attendance and one is seriously considering caucusing for Bill even though I don't believe she has ever gone to a Democratic Caucus before. The other Republican was an older man who will most likely not caucus for Bill but showed up to the event to tell Bill he was the best candidate in this year's Democratic field and deserved to be President.

    All-in-all it was a good event and I saw more of the issues oriented Bill than the pandering Bill I have observed previously. I think he will attract larger crowds later in the day since he will be traveling to towns with more Democrats. At least I hope that is the case because he definitely deserves a listen.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 1:58 PM


  35. NEW THREAD

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 1, 2008 2:09 PM

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