Bush Talk Boosts Romney?

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ORLANDO -- Aside from being reminded that he still exists, watching George W. Bush give his final State of the Union address makes me think about its impact on the Florida Primary. (Yes, I know, two million citizens voting tomorrow in my home state is a bit of an obsession for me.)

Bush on my television makes me consider just what a profound choice that Florida Republicans must make in deciding whether to anoint John McCain or Mitt Romney as the party’s next frontrunner for the nomination.

Choosing McCain as the Republican nominee would make it more difficult for the party to distance itself from an unpopular president. As a relentless supporter of the war in Iraq, the Arizona senator is inevitably tied to an issue that could imperil Republicans in the general election.

Romney offers a chance to move Republicans away from being seen as the party of Bush. The former Massachusetts governor is not shy about keeping his distance from the president. He often talks about restoring the GOP as the party of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush -- pointedly excluding the current president from that list. 

Romney’s stronger case for leading a post-Bush party might just come to mind as Florida Republicans watch the president as they think about going to the polls tomorrow.

 

Craig on State of the Union Post-Game
MSNBC with Host David Shuster
Tuesday (1/29) 12:00 AM Midnight EST

 

 . . . and on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Tuesday (1/29) 6:30 AM EST

 

. . . and on MSNBC "Florida Primary"
Tuesday (1/29) 9:00 AM EST

 

    Comments

  1. woot

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:38 PM

  2. "I realize, though, that THEY will both do ANYTHING and SAY ANYTHING to get elected, and if any of you who support her really cared about this country you would realize that is the case"

    How dare you Karolenna? Just becuase we don't agree with you doesn't mean we don't care about this country. It is precisely BECAUSE we care that we are involved and speak out.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:41 PM

  3. Is it just me or does it look like Mary Tyler Moore and Ed Asner are sitting directly behind Bush?

    Posted by: Corey Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:42 PM

  4. nannymm,
    Don't feed the troll. She has already said she won't vote if Obama isn't the nominee. That, in my book, disqualifies her from being part of any of the discussion. What is she 12?

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:43 PM

  5. No comment, don't care who the repugs nominate.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:44 PM

  6. It's just you, Corey. I'm pretty sure that's the devil incarnate and someone else whose term in Congress needs to be limited sitting there behind bush.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 28, 2008 9:44 PM

  7. "You Billary supporters sound like a bunch of Neocons. "

    Karolenna, You are new here. We often argue about issues and even candidates, but try to pull back from name calling even when things get heated or feelings hurt. There are good people here who support Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 9:46 PM

  8. Bush is talking about Iraq. All lies. Hell, even the Republican base knows he's lying.

    George, EVERYONE KNOWS YOU'RE LYING. Everyone.

    He either doesn't CARE, or he doesn't KNOW.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:46 PM

  9. zoey,
    thanks for the advise, i'll ignore her from here on in.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:46 PM

  10. Craig,
    Pardon my confusion since I am not a Republican, but I thought Mitt pretty much agreed with Bush and they were on pretty friendly terms. I also thought McCain sometimes disagreed with Bush (except for the war) and would be viewed less as a Bush legacy.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:48 PM

  11. The Jack In The Box only works on one side of the room.

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 9:48 PM

  12. Good question Nash -- which is it? Dont care or don't know? Arrogant or Stupid.

    Wait.. could it be both??

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:48 PM

  13. Doesn't he seem to be taking a LONG time to make an argument about the war? His last gasp at justifying the most stupid of all of his stupid decisions?

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:50 PM

  14. Bush knows he can get the Dems to clap. All he has to do is say " We support the troops!" and they'll all leap to their feet like trained monkeys.

    I hate the Dems in Congress almost as much as Bush. They have done NOTHING to block him. Nothing.

    Pelosi and Reid are both morally bankrupt and stupid.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:50 PM

  15. doesn't matter how long he takes, there is NO justification for his war.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:51 PM

  16. "Is it just me or does it look like Mary Tyler Moore and Ed Asner are sitting directly behind Bush? -- Posted by: Corey"

    Corey, you just got mom's LOL award with that one. She's still cackling (Dad is watching a John Wayne movie -- or maybe we are too, can't tell the diff)

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:52 PM

  17. "Pelosi and Reid are both morally bankrupt and stupid."

    Nash,
    I couldn't agree more. They sold us all a bill of goods.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:52 PM

  18. There are MANY faces as they pan the audience that I would not miss were they not to be re-elected...and MANY faces I will not miss a year from now when they are not re-appointed.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 28, 2008 9:53 PM

  19. Here he goes again trying to drum up support to "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb. Bomb, Bomb, Iran." Heaven help this world if McCain is his successor.

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:53 PM

  20. Nash - I understand your frustration -- but the numbers in congress right now don't give the dems a lot of options. OK, the house could have cut off funding - but that would actually be to Bush's benefit - then he finally can admit defeat in Iraq - but blame it all on the dems.

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:53 PM

  21. "Craig, I thought Mitt pretty much agreed with Bush and they were on pretty friendly terms." -- Posted by: zoey

    that was true a month ago in IA-NH, but in Michigan he shape shifted to the washington outsider theme against McCain and pushng the case that he is the post-Bushie (for now)

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:56 PM

  22. labber: Doesn't care or doesn't know?
    It's probably both. He's a mean, arrogant prick surrounded by ass-kissing toadies. Rice is #1 toad.

    Cheney knows, for sure, and he doesn't care. To Cheney power means he can lie in your face, and you know it, and he knows you know it, and you can't do a damn thing about it.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:56 PM

  23. I can barely listen to him..... god.... is Bush an azzhole or what......

    Craig.... I bet more people in this country are watching something else.....

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 28, 2008 9:56 PM

  24. Craig -- when I first read your posting about this speech being a boost for Romney, I doubted. But obviously, you read the advance copy and saw just how long W was going to dwell on the war. I agree that the longer he spends on this stuff, the better for Romney. Every word that comes out of his mouth about the war and terrorism just reminds us of past lies, which McCain supported.

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:57 PM

  25. I'm with nash and zoey. Pelosi should have been gone some time ago...worthless piece of poo in a purple suit. I know less about Reid, but he certainly hasn't performed in an impressive manner since ascending.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 28, 2008 9:57 PM

  26. For me, it is not so much that they weren't able to take action because they didn't have the numbers. It is more about them staying silent and letting the Repubs off the hook. The Dems inb Congree could at least make some noise instead of silently rolling over.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:57 PM

  27. Thanks Craig, I caught the Romney shape-shifter routine after Michigan but it sounded like he was shifting back this week during the debate.

    Posted by: zoey Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 9:59 PM

  28. "Is it just me or does it look like Mary Tyler Moore and Ed Asner are sitting directly behind Bush?"

    You got spunk kid. I hate spunk.

    What's Pelosi reading during the speech? The latest Vogue?

    ps. W. amnesty for telcos who broke the law for your fascist regime is not the American way.

    Posted by: dnd | January 28, 2008 10:00 PM

  29. I swear the slurring is getting worse the longer he speaks. Zibaway has an m and two b's in it

    Zimbabwe

    If there isn't vodka in that glass someone should check his blood pressure.

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 10:00 PM

  30. Such pretty rhetoric...so little action.

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 28, 2008 10:00 PM

  31. labber: In the 90s the Republicans in Congress forced Clinton to deal with them, but these Dems are all gutless. Even though Bush has been a lousy president, they still fear him.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:01 PM

  32. Slurring -- Maybe he is playing along with the drinking game. Did anybody see if he took a drink when he said Africa?

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:02 PM

  33. nash...I think they just fear not being re-elected...and I think that fear drives everything they do and don't do. We, the people, need to un-elect a whole lot of this crowd!

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 28, 2008 10:03 PM

  34. Effective Noon tomorrow I will resign as President of the United States ...

    Sorry started snoozing and dreaming.

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 10:03 PM

  35. i like prez better in Arabia doing goofy stuff for the cameras

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:03 PM

  36. What Bush is thinking now...
    "I'm outta here. Cocoa & cartoons!"

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:04 PM

  37. What Condi is thinking now.

    "Thank God that's over. Merlot and Wagner!"

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:06 PM

  38. What Bill is thinking right now.
    "Where are my socks? I should have used a condom."

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:07 PM

  39. "i like prez better in Arabia doing goofy stuff for the cameras"

    Line dancing with the Saudi's isn't doing goofy stuff for the cameras!

    Ok, wait. Maybe it is...

    Posted by: dnd | January 28, 2008 10:08 PM

  40. What Cheney is thinking...
    Thank God, we got this moron through the last big speech. Now we can send him back to Texas and complete the dismantling of the constitution.

    Posted by: labber Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:08 PM

  41. Nash....
    it's just like Ann Myers said in a post today.....

    they are all in love with power..... and will do anything to keep that power....

    but "we the people" keep electing them over and over again.....
    doesn't say much about us.....

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 28, 2008 10:10 PM

  42. Someone choke Tweety Pleeeeeeassssssssse

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 10:12 PM

  43. geez....
    Howard Fineman and Margaret Carlson....

    I just changed the channel to CNN...

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 28, 2008 10:12 PM

  44. Renee,
    "they are all in love with power..... and will do anything to keep that power...."

    Rule 25. POL.

    Posted by: dnd | January 28, 2008 10:13 PM

  45. What Obama is thinking right now.
    "Living is easy with eyes closed,
    I mean it must be high or low.
    That is you can't, you know, tune in,
    but it's all right,
    at least I think it's not too bad,"

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:13 PM

  46. I think Nash has been holed up in that snow covered cabin in Upper Maine a touch too long. You need to got out more often and see how the rest of the world lives besides I hear that the Moose are very nervous about you being around so long.

    yo soy Horsedooty!

    Posted by: Horsedooty! | January 28, 2008 10:16 PM

  47. Nash I thought he was thinking "next year that will be me up there"

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:16 PM

  48. ah dnd...
    I have my copy of it right here.....

    that chapter is entitled "The Powerful Never Give Up Control: It Must Be Taken Away"

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 28, 2008 10:16 PM

  49. What Romney is thinking right now.
    "You don't know the power of the dark side. Join me, and we shall defeat the emperor and rule the galaxy."

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:17 PM

  50. The antennae on my tin hat are twanging.

    First TK endorsement today and now Governor Sebelius doing the Democratic response:

    http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/sebelius_plans_to_endorse_obam.php

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 10:20 PM

  51. "The Powerful Never Give Up Control: It Must Be Taken Away"...
    Isn't that what John Edwards keeps trying to tell us?

    Posted by: harborwoman | January 28, 2008 10:21 PM

  52. Jamie,
    As Dorothy said to Toto "I don't think we're in Kansas any more."

    Posted by: dnd | January 28, 2008 10:22 PM

  53. Jamie...
    keep that tin foil hat on....

    Governor Sebelius isn't exactly very inspiring.....

    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 28, 2008 10:22 PM

  54. harborwoman, dnd -- you guys!!! that's my very favorite of the rules, which is why i saved it for last

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:23 PM

  55. Is it just me, or this Democratic Reaction speech BORING?


    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:23 PM

  56. love the fireplace and bookcase, but where's Toto?

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:24 PM

  57. well then, Craig...
    I will reread it tomorrow when I am more awake.....


    Posted by: RebelliousRenee | January 28, 2008 10:25 PM

  58. This is like listening to paint dry.

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:25 PM

  59. dnd

    Did you click on the link. She is probably going to endorse Obama.

    Female governor doing Democratic response to the SOTU following a major endorsement by "The Lion of The Senate"

    What was Haile Selassi's nickname? - The Lion of Judah

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 10:25 PM

  60. Sebelius did a brilliant job.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:26 PM

  61. McCain, the genial thug. He wants to cut spending. (Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, college loans, etc.)

    Posted by: nash Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:32 PM

  62. Jamie get Oliver Stone on the phone, he'll know what's going on. I betta you anything it's a Dean planned conspiracy.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:32 PM

  63. OMG Obama's now on MSNBC, damn them, they've gotten to Keith too. Have they no shame.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:35 PM

  64. LOL@Brian

    Posted by: nannymm Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:37 PM

  65. Obama just used a Clinton demand for a "Plan" from the joint chiefs for withdrawal.

    I guess he is "Changing" to her campaign ideas.

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 10:39 PM

  66. Could an upset be brewing for hilliary in calif? excerpts from the prince of darkness novak. link at the end

    Clinton's 39 percent support against Obama's 27 percent in California's Field Poll last week provides much less certainty than a 12-point margin normally would. With Clinton falling and Obama rising, it contrasts with her 30-point lead of six months ago.

    The poll's demographics are more important. Clinton has dramatically lost support among blacks, now trailing Obama 58 percent to 24 percent. It is a virtual dead heat among white non-Hispanics, 32 percent to 30 percent. The 12-point overall lead derives from a 59 percent to 19 percent Clinton edge among Latinos.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/27/AR2008012701612_pf.html

    Posted by: John R, | January 28, 2008 10:40 PM

  67. Evening Posse,

    Well, Florida is finally upon us, and here's my final data from the Intrade Florida Presidential Futures Markets....

    http://www.central.edu/publicdocs/01%2D28%2D08FuturesMarketGraphs.pdf

    REPUBLICANS: It looks like Florida is going to be a real nail-scraper...However, the data are what the data are, and the market is predicting a McCain win in an absolute squeaker...The margin-of-error is +/-2%, and McCain is (of 9:00pm CST) holding a 5% lead, just outside the MOE...With the exception of the very end of the 2000 Presidential race, the McCain/Romney race has been as volatile as I've ever seen in the market.

    The national Republican futures market seems to be confirming McCain's strength, as his financial position is increasing as Romney's position is fairly stagnant.

    DEMOCRATS: On the other side of the spectrum, Clinton looks like she's going to have a repeat of Michigan. Obama's position as faded steadily over the last month, he got no bump whatsoever from his SC win, and there was no bump as a result of the Kennedy endorsements. The market predicts a big win for Clinton in Florida.

    Nationally, there has been a marked change in the market over the last 6 days. Clinton's lead has shrunk from 2.5-to-1 to 1.5-to-1 in less than a week. Additionally, there has been a slight tightening in the California futures market as the market starts looking past Florida.

    For an overview of political futures markets, please see:

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/01/florida-to-forecast-both-party-1.html#comment-16896

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:43 PM

  68. spike, must say the GOP buzz leans toward Romney but longtime pros telling me they've never seen such a nail biter, so mebbe the Futures Market is on to somethin

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:56 PM

  69. Did Jim Webb just agree with Barak, damn they've gotten to him too. When will this madness end!

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 10:57 PM

  70. Health care may become a big deal in California campaign.

    State Senate just defeated Schwarzeneggar Plan

    http://www.sacbee.com/

    Posted by: jamie | January 28, 2008 10:59 PM

  71. From a more objective view on the Left leaning side, Bush set out the Republicn approach. Unfortunately, the Democrats will lose the Iraq rant because by election day, Iraq will be even more stable than today. Patraeous may become the NATO commander and recieve a great reception at home much to the dismay of Obama. France and the US seem to be committed to Lebanon and Obama and Edwards would have a tought time backing out. The better things get and the more our allies get worried about the Democrats retreating, the harder it will be for Obama to retract his bold declarations. If he looks foolish come the fall as things improve his rhetoric will fade fast. Already the tone Bush set makes Obama blink on where he goes. Does he keep attacking Iraq and the administration, or does he shift gears.

    On a crucial front the Democrats must be extremely careful about Iran. Given these global trends Obama is going to have trouble makng the arguement against the Republican's postion on Iran, the Middle East and even Pakistan as would Ted Kennedy and Pelosi. Imagine breaking stories on Iranian nuclear activity and people remember Obama opposed sanctions.

    I mention Obama here because I think Bush's play here offers Obama less play than Clinton.

    Republicans don't really want McCain, but given the security issue and the need to compete with the numbers that are going to come out for Democrats, McCain offers the best chance. McCain could really go toe to toe with Obama. He can make the case that Obama wasn't bipartisan on immigration and from a security view can debate the foreign policy problems with Obama's contradictory and pandering positions. Any terrorism and Democrats would recall Hillary...LOL should she lose the nomination. McCain best line to Barak, "I knew Ronald Reagan and JFK and Senator Obama, you're no Ronald Reagan and you're no JFK." Now can Romney say that? Ah...no.

    So I wouldn't be so happy Democrats. The rebutal speech from the Democrats sported a female candidate ( transparent Dems, she ain't no Hillary and doesn't vote like Obama) who wouldn't get elected in her State with a Ted endorsement or Obama's positions. She was emotionless and made Hillary look like a college student. She tried to say that Democrats have gotten a lot done and the media is promoted divisive headlines (while Obama enjoys such media spin.) Quite an amazing spin from the Governor. As she said this I am sure some media was making cruel jokes about the President and Cheney, if they weren't making slanted cuts on the Clintons. Sure, the DNC has no role in promoting the Bush derangement syndrome.....or the new version of Camelot. Hell, if JFK was alive he would have to run as a Republica. Guess Caroline and Ted are in denial on that one.

    Bush offered the basic Conservative game plan. There was zero socon agendas. no new taxes, strong foreign policy, immigration reform, vets, education sounding more like Reagan than Cheney. He sold his pitch on terror. Was that lost on Obama?The Left thrives on vilification and Bush moved tactfully to lower the flames while daring the Democrats to look foolish another year. The more moderates on both sides move to center the more the Left and more tougher conservatives worry. The question is whether the Republicans will nominate the more Independent McCain and whether the Democrats try to ride in trashing Hillary with a coalition of the more Liberal pretending they are uniters. Perhaps the trench warfare between Romney and McCain and between Obama and Clinton will decide the course of America. The sad thing is the role media plays with their attendent pundits and blathering talking heads. This give the extremes on both sides the advantage if the American people prove too stupid to figure out the bias subsituting for news. If the extrme prevail, then America is screwed until 2012.

    Posted by: Maxtrue | January 28, 2008 11:04 PM

  72. Stroke of genius to be holding the Kennedy endorsement on the same day as SOTU.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 11:06 PM

  73. posted a article from novak above, calif politics could be interesting, it is a shocker to me if novak is correct that hilliary 12 point lead in calif comes from latino support and that obama is running even among white voters. what is also a shocker is many republican friends i have who are die-hard republicans are calling me saying they are impressed and are tempted to vote for obama. maybe they will maybe they wont but just the fact they are tempted and talking about it in a serious way says a lot imo. if hilliary lose or barely win calif this election will be over!

    Posted by: John R, | January 28, 2008 11:12 PM

  74. Craig -- "so mebbe the Futures Market is on to somethin"

    Look at the bottom right chart -- lead changes everyday for 5 days, and I've only been plotting this once per day...I've never seen anything quite like it in a primary...

    I'd say McCain's strengthening in the national market (top right chart) might be confirming the FL market results.

    http://www.central.edu/publicdocs/01%2D28%2D08FuturesMarketGraphs.pdf

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 11:14 PM

  75. Biden was pretty effusive in his praise for Obama. hmmmmmmmm.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 11:20 PM

  76. TOP TEN LIST:
    What I learned when I turned off biased news networks like FOX/CNN/MSNBC.

    10. I actually like to watch movies on my big screen TV

    9. “Change” is what I find in pockets.

    8. I don’t have E.D.

    7. I don’t HAVE to argue about politics anymore.

    6. I realize I only have one vote, and it takes place in NOVEMBER.

    5. The “noise” left my head and peace filled the air.

    4. It is okay for someone I like to support someone I don’t like.

    3. Whoever wins the presidency is going to have a very difficult job, but they get a nice house.

    2. The loser will look younger then the winner in four years.

    1. When I turn off biased annoying arrogant newscasters, I hold the remote control and there is nothing they can say or sell to me, until I turn them back on.

    Posted by: h20storm Author Profile Page | January 28, 2008 11:38 PM

  77. Interesting when Biden said "well I wouldn't count Hillary out". Not exactly the way one wants to be thought of when running for prez. I wonder if Keith and Tweety are right, could the Teddy/Caroline endorsement cause a bandwagon effect.

    They may end up being the real magic behinds Teddy's endorsement, a permission slip for the other higher ups to come and declare their support.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 12:00 AM

  78. It's 9 p.m. on the Left Coast, and midnight on the Right Coast, which means it's time for "Crawford After Dark." So pour yourself an adult beverage, turn down the lights, and in the words of the late, great Tom Snyder, "sit down, relax, and watch the colortinis as they fly through the air."

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 12:02 AM

  79. reporting in for Crawford After Dark... where's the bourbon?

    now JohnR..why would anyone post an article by novak? now there's the ultimate maroon..

    Posted by: tylenol Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 12:14 AM

  80. "i like prez better in Arabia doing goofy stuff for the cameras" LMAO!! So true, Craig.

    TT

    Posted by: tiptoe Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 12:19 AM

  81. Craig -- I think I can already give you an answer to your "the votes will be different between absentee versus live voting" theory...

    Take a look at the internals of the latest SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll...

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=523f71cb-c9c3-4340-b2fb-c91a455c7a6e

    The data suggests that 62% of those people who have already voted did so for Clinton, versus only 18% for Obama.

    For those people who are likely to vote tomorrow, 45% are planning to vote for Clinton, and of those, 29% could change their minds. Thirty-two percent are planning to vote for Obama tomorrow, and of those, 35% could change their minds.

    This would suggest that people who plan to vote live will do so more for Obama than for Clinton. However, there is no way you can infer that those people who plan to vote for Obama are doing it because of Obama's win in SC, or because of the Kennedy endorsement.

    Rmember, correlation does not infer causation. As tempting as it is to do, unless as part of the survey you asked Obama supporters why they were voting for him tomorrow, you can't infer the late shift toward Obama has anything to do with previous results or the recent endorsements.

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 1:07 AM

  82. Gov. Sebelius is an automaton, right? Gee, who knew robot technology became so advanced. I never have seen such uninspired prompter-reading in my life.
    This was THE benchmark , in that regard.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    I agree with Craig's assessment regarding Romney breaking off and coming on as a "Washington Outsider".
    Romney sounds like a guy I was stuck sitting with on a crowded Capitol Limited Amtrak lounge car years ago, who was raving on how Washington was broken and how Mondale was going to fix it when he beat Reagan in 1984.
    Mercifully, that guy's name was called and he was off to the dining car, but we could be stuck with Romney for a ong time.
    Obama wants to take us back to Camelot and Romney wants to take us back to the days of "ketchup is a vegetable"(David Stockman) and Star Wars missile defense systems...and ruling the "guv-mint" by "when the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter rules the stars."
    Thrilling times await us.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 1:26 AM

  83. Dexter -- "Gov. Sebelius is an automaton, right? "

    Interesting thing about her....She's been up here in Iowa for about 2 years doing fundraisers for local candidates (i.e., state senate, etc.) . Around here, that signals you're thinking about running for something national. If the Democrats don't win in November, I'll be watching to see if she starts showing up again around here in late 2009 or early 2010...

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 1:43 AM

  84. OK Dexter, it looks like you're in charge of the fort....Gotta get up early and go beat the heathens until their minds improve. Have a good night.

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 1:46 AM

  85. OK....just heard that Sebelius is endorsing the Obama in the morning. That means her giving the Dem. response was planned via the powers-that-be at the DNC...

    Given her working for tickets outside her state for a couple years now, it looks like she might be positioning herself for second place on the Obama ticket if he gets the nomination....

    You're right...thrilling times do await us....

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:00 AM

  86. >>just heard that Sebelius is endorsing the Obama in the morning."

    superfluous "the" before Obama...

    Posted by: spike Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:02 AM

  87. Sebelious could be very a good choice for Obama.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:05 AM

  88. OMG you guys! Mike Huckabee is coming to my neck of teh woodz to speak to the San Francisco Commonwealth Club (I could totally take the bus!!!!)! It's this Thursday, should I go??? Tickets are $65.00 (Mike Gravel was $20.00. And I enjoyed it.). OMG...I could basically disprove the theory of evolution by shitting in my hands and throwing it at him...but still...sixty-five bucks...hmm!

    Dilemmas, dilemmas.

    Posted by: Julia | January 29, 2008 2:19 AM

  89. Sebelious is David Bowie's little sister, right?

    Here she is at the Christmas party in Kansas:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/totp2/features/wallpaper/images/1024/david_bowie.jpg

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:22 AM

  90. ). OMG...I could basically disprove the theory of evolution by shitting in my hands and throwing it at him...but still...sixty-five bucks...hmm!

    Dilemmas, dilemmas.-------"from Julia"

    GO FOR IT!! Huckabee would understand, and cure you of your heathenism with just a little prayer!
    Who woulda thunk Darwin was an Englishman? Damndest things ya learn from Cash Cab.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:28 AM

  91. Momentum or Delegates? I'd say momentum. What say you?

    http://www.slate.com/id/2182946/nav/tap3/

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:31 AM

  92. Bill Clinton's head hits the pillow, but he can't sleep...a tear runs down his temple as he recalls meeting JFK, and this song haunts him all night long:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-KPGh3wysw

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:38 AM

  93. OK...coffee maker's timer will kick in at 0430 hours eastern time.
    Have a nice day.
    I get novacaine and needles and grinders and drills later on today, just another day. My dentist doesn't bother me...he has the gentle touch.

    Posted by: Dexter Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 2:56 AM

  94. One more chillingly honest comment by a newsman. CNN's John King said the importance of Florida's democratic primary depend entirely on how the press decides to play it. "The public doesn't pay attention," he said. "So it depends on what we say in the headlines."

    Posted by: Patsi | January 29, 2008 2:58 AM

  95. Senator Obama, turning his back on a gracious Senator Clinton, reveals much about the Illinois senator who seems to feel entitled to be President of the United States.

    Senator Clinton, extending her hand toTed Kennedy, illustrates her ingtegrity and professionalsim.

    I'm proud to be a supporter of Senator Clinton!

    Posted by: Oregon Democrat | January 29, 2008 3:15 AM

  96. Oregon Democrat, I support her too and if Obama wins it means that the media has been allowed to choose our candidate for us and that is shameful...I am so depressed about it....Praying hard for Clinton...

    Posted by: athyrio Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 3:30 AM

  97. athyrio..keep the faith..we will have a big victory in Florida on Tuestay. Whenever you feel depresseed, remember you have friend supporting Hillary in Oregon...

    Posted by: Oregon Democrat | January 29, 2008 3:42 AM

  98. Thanks Oregon Democrat....I just dont understand why the media thinks they have the right to just trash Hillary and annoint Obama...well I guess I will go to bed now so hopefully tomorrow is a great day of a huge win in Florida...but the media probably will gloss over it and not mention it lol.....good nite to all....

    Posted by: athyrio Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 4:11 AM

  99. they dont exactly have the "right" to......they have the "power" to.....and they work for their owners.....

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 4:15 AM

  100. Maybe you haven't notice but it's the voters who seem to be "anointing" Barak, not the media.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 4:30 AM

  101. "the voters" are a fickle lot, though, aren't they?

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 4:33 AM

  102. I wasnt really referring to Obama, though......I was thinking more about how the media pushed the bush

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 4:33 AM

  103. come time for the general election if the media still pushed for obama, I'd be pleased.....but I think the media will be pushing whatever republican makes the nomination.....and then we might be both howling at the same moon.......

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 4:39 AM

  104. Sturg I tend to think the media "pushes" whomever they think is going to win. Off to bed, night bro.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC | January 29, 2008 4:43 AM

  105. hasta lumbago, old sport......

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 4:45 AM

  106. Hey hey hey!

    Well, gang I am up to my ears in school lessons and basketball...last week of the season, but i have a good Georgia update for you. Yes, I know today is all about Florida, but if you want to know whats going on in the Peach State t minus 7 days, come check it out

    http://theaginghipster.blogspot.com/2008/01/georgia-presidential-primary-watch-7.html

    Back in 15 minutes, gotta walk the dog in 20 degree cold.

    -Hipster

    Posted by: redst3 Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 4:46 AM

  107. Mr. Bush even presented his promise to extend tax cuts with a Reagan-style joke. “Others have said they would personally be happy to pay higher taxes,” Mr. Bush said, twinkling roguishly. “I welcome their enthusiasm, and I am pleased to report that the I.R.S. accepts both checks and money orders.”

    Myron Cohen, he's not.

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 4:48 AM

  108. I dont think the media pushes whom they think will win......there's no way "the media thought" Bush would win 2000 against Al Gore.........

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 4:53 AM

  109. Obama Responds: Read (and watch) Sen. Barack Obama's SOTU response: "Imagine if next year, the entire nation had a president they could believe in. A president who rallied all Americans around a common purpose. That's the kind of president we need in this country."
    ---from Huppington Fost


    Someone needs to remind Barack of the GOP slime and attack machine......if he thinks he's going to be uniting the parties and peoples of this country, he's not very astute......ie......is delusional.....Caroline Kennedy or no Caroline Kennedy.

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 5:03 AM

  110. All I want is a democrat who will win in November......I dont care which one.....just whomever it is, that they win the election.........That said, Hillary's message of "I know how to fight these bastards" appeals to me more than Barack's seeming message of "the entire nation having a president they can believe in" and "rallying all americans around a common cause" which seems to me to be at this time and in the current situation in America.......utter nonsense.

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 5:27 AM

  111. that kid in the red T-shirt is startin' to get on my noives...........

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 5:53 AM

  112. what kid in the red t-shirt?

    Posted by: colleen | January 29, 2008 5:56 AM

  113. up there on the right when Craig's CQ page comes up......(sometimes he's not there.....)

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 5:58 AM

  114. yesterday upon the stair
    I saw a man who wasnt there
    he wasnt there again today
    I wish that man would go away

    ---FPAdams

    Posted by: sturgeone | January 29, 2008 5:59 AM

  115. OMG Dnd, I have just been watching old reruns of The Mary Tyler Moore Show and I just saw the first episode... "You got spunk kid. I hate spunk"! LOL... That was back when television was quality. It's so nice to see scenes of Downtown Minneapolis as I remember it. Daytons, Donaldsons... etc.

    Posted by: EuroTom Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 9:42 AM

  116. Well I just sent my worthless ballot for the Washington State primary via post to the USA. I gladly voted for Hillary but I really wish that if they are intent on having these damn primaries they could at least make them COUNT. Nonetheless, it was symbolic for me and I voted for Hillary with much pride, though I toyed a bit with the idea of voting for John Edwards.

    Posted by: EuroTom Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 10:13 AM

  117. where the hell is everyone? it is nighttime in the states?

    Posted by: EuroTom Author Profile Page | January 29, 2008 10:14 AM

  118. Why does Craig think the GOP rank and file want to distance themselves from Bush?

    Posted by: robert Chapman | January 30, 2008 6:44 AM

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