Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

You guys are chatty today! Over 600 posts in the last 14 hours!

I think its time for a musical interlude...

A tribute to our own Craig "Cowpoke" Crawford...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkkFOoTVMPE

Hillary exploit a loophole, I'm shocked. Frankly Craig the only thing whinny that I can see is the tone of your piece. Come on, gee whiz.

Good title, Craig. LOL

tt

Hillary's in Florida; Obama has Florida blanketed with tv ads; what's Edwards doing?

Lardass...I'm another of those idealistic Edwards supporters. I expect to caucus for him on Feb. 9 in WA.

harborwoman asks, "Hillary's in Florida; Obama has Florida blanketed with tv ads; what's Edwards doing?"

harborwoman -- Edwards is playing by the rules, which is why he's in third place

Washington State Democrats' straw poll results...

http://www.wa-democrats.org/index.php?page=display&id=248

Spike.......I think you may have single-handedly warded off another attack from Mars.....

Oh, Craig...Part of me's crying and part of me's chuckling....

Craig - "her herself" 3rd paragraph

picky picky me myself

Spike...600+ posts in 14 hours? The pace got painful for awhile there, didn't it? It's nice to have things somewhat back to normal...even if it took a Sunday night to get us there....

Us Hillary supporters are being called P.O.W.'s and that stands for Pissed Off Women.......Hillary is in florida and thats great....I am a gutter bowler myself as the ball always goes crooked....Poor hillary cant even make a joke without someone twisting it......apparently that Jesse Jackson statement of Bills was in response to a question of Are you surprised a black man won South Carolina....How they twist and twist.....

well, HRC has said she can't sing, now she can't bowl. Can we really trust her with the presidency? What else can't she do?

Edwards is such a GOOD guy!

Vote for Edwards!!

tt

Craig look at these new statistics on SC vote at this link
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011834.php

thanks colleen, got "her" done

Very nice to see Ruby Dee won a SAG award......

Craig, did you look at the statistics I gave you the link to?? It isnt being reported at all.....why not.??

This afternoon, a Fox News anchor appeared to be on the verge of a tantrum because Hillary was in FL. Really! He was that upset about the fundraiser loophole.

How retarded....it is perfectly legal...however noone cares that Obama showed that national advertisement when CNN is perfectly capable of screening it out of their programming ...how else do you think they have black out areas for sports events...ridiculous...

Craig
I reposted this from the other thread because I was working so hard on it I didn't notice the new thread.
and cause I'm a trouble maker
and cause I can

It looks to me as if Obama has let himself be painted into a box.

It doesn't matter if press has made him a black candidate or if this has been political tricks by opponents. He has allowed it to happen. Mostly by the way he has let his people speak and the way he personally didn't step in and object to the "Clinton is racist" attacks.
Just because you have been attacked doesn't mean you don't have a choice as to how you respond.
How bad has he been hurt?
The uproar by his supporters about Bill Clinton's statement comparing him to Jesse Jackson is a good indication.
Since when did "Jesse Jackson" become a racial slur? He isn't, unless you're Rush Limbaugh or part of the 2%er on the left.
The sad fact is South Carolina politics are about race.( "who ud a thunk it") The reason Barak Obama won South Carolina is race, It is also the reason HRC came in second. Throw out the black vote and Edwards wins.

Here is Obama's box.
First, he has allowed himself to painted as the black candidate. It has happened in the last 3 weeks and he let it happen. He forgot that his message was I'm post racial and did not stop his people from engaging in good old fashion racial politics (dare i say Chicago style?)
The other Message he has lost in the noise is "I'm the candidate of the centrist independent and can work across the isle". he is now being championed by the liberal wing of the party.
That is his box. It is one that may get him the nomination but it will assure a Republican victory in the fall.

Jack

Got busy tonight but did I call it or what!!!!!!!
Here's a link to the Miami Herald blog piece-
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2008/01/clinton-i-am--1.html

I totally love it when I'm right.
Now back to catch up on the posts from this afternoon.

OOps sorry didn't realize Craig already had the link in his post.

Breaking News
Hillary will bei in the Senate tomorrow to vote no on the FISA bill...

and Claire McCaskill will be there to vote for Fisa, Thats the New politics She was talking aboutm in thew Obama ad, Ya supose?

Jack

lol,

Enough whsky for me tonite

Jack

"Craig look at these new statistics on SC vote at this link
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011834.php" -- Posted by: athyrio

oops, sorry athyrio, but that is exit poll data. i gave up exit polls and cigarettes in this campaign, both are hazardous to mental health. i no longer even read exit polls, after losing faith in their accuracy across the last couple of elections. also, i think it is a violation of the secret ballot to harass voters for such information. if i ran the world, i would outlaw them

Things did get rather agitated around here. That will teach Craig to have a truly different opinion rather than a variation on the herd.

Athyrio -- "look at these new statistics on SC vote at this link
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011834.php"

That's an interesting analysis, but just eyeballing the data, I'd have to say that the changes shown for each of the candidates is within the margin-of-error of the average % for each candidate.

There may be a couple exceptions, but you really can't make the statements Eriposte makes unless you have all the raw data and can run the analysis.

Also, correlation does not imply causation. Just because two events happened in sequence doesn't necessarily mean that one "caused" the other.

For instance, Eriposte suggests that "he (Obama) lost a noticeable share of the White vote (compared to Nevada) in SC to Sen. Edwards." He's suggesting that one group of people, because they voted a particular way in one state, should vote the same way in another state. You just can't make those kinds of statements....

All-in-all, Eriposte spins an interesting tale, but the data (as it's presented) doesn't appear back up the analysis.

Spike

Can you put money down on the november race?

The way the democratic race is going it might pay to see If I can do any bottom feeding amoung the Republicans.

Jack

Craig, I know you don't like exit polls. I admit, the guys who are selling it screwed up pretty bad a few years ago, but they're trying really, really hard to get better at it, they promise....

However, I use them extensively when I teach research. They are great examples of 1) social desireability -- giving an answer that you think the interviewer wants to hear, and 2) the fact that people lie to researchers...

They are also the poster child for the old researcher motto: "The data are what the data are." You can only infer out of the data what's there to infer...no more, no less...

Whiskey -- "Can you put money down on the november race?"

Sure can....http://www.intrade.com/

Personally, I only bet $2 per year, and that is on the Kentucky Derby....

thats true spike it doesnt take into account the racism that is probably involved in the white vote in SC I suppose.,. Who knows but I sure thought it put a different spin on it....

EdVB: HAPPY BIRTHDAY, my friend!

I am really P.O.'d and upset cuz my man Prop Joe ...well...I won't spoil it for any other "The Wire" fans. (HBO). But it wasn't good.

Hey Dex, That was a great episode tonight!!!

Senator Obama is like the mirror image of Rudy G. Where Rudy says "9/11 blah-blah-blah 9/11 blah-blah-blah" Senator Obama says "trite non-specific platitude like hope, change or dream blah-blah-blah trite non-specific platitude like hope,change or dream blah-blah-blah." Each is inspiring in a way, to those who believe in non-specific blah-blah-blah. But neither offers anything in the way of substance.

And Senator Obama is like the mirror image of George W. Both can be petulant, sarcastic and given to smirking; both are full of themselves.

Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are like Willard Romney, stealing ideas from the only candidate with vision. Now, for instance, Willard, Obama and Clinton are starting to say, "oh, there's something wrong with the economy."

The only authentic, mature, specific voice in this election is that of Senator John Edwards.

Gordon B. Hinckley, the President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Is Dead at 97

The president of the Mormon Church, Gordon B. Hinckley, died
Sunday, a church spokesman said. He was 97.

Mr. Hinckley was the 15th president of the Church of Jesus
Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Happy birthday Ed. Early voting is taking place in AZ by mail. Since my guy hasn't announced his entry yet, I voted for Edwards in the hope no one will have sewed up the nomination by August and then the Convention will draft Al Gore! Will one vote make a difference? I sure hope so, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Edwards will stay until the convention like he says he will.

See you all tomorrow.

although I know we've moved on to Fla, I'm still stuck in SC for a minute. Here's Greg Palast on a little SC economic history. So how's NAFTA working out for us?

The South Carolina You Won't See on CNN

South Carolina Primary Colors: Black and White?

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article19209.htm

ok, now I'm on my way to the sunshine state - oops, am I allowed in? I'll go through the looking glass loophole!

i have heard Obama say a thousand times.....there is no right american, there is no left america only a united states of america....he needs a new speech writer....he is beginning to repeat himself badly lol.....

"Craig, I know you don't like exit polls. I admit, the guys who are selling it screwed up pretty bad a few years ago, but they're trying really, really hard to get better at it, they promise...." -- spike

oh i sooooo understand that, spike. wish i could believe in them because the data is cool. but too many times i've watched exit polls conducted. questioners are not always professional or even minimally skilled (i once watched a scruffy looking college kid scare the hell out of voters in new hamp), and the various looks on respondents' faces are telling -- with few exceptions, ranging from mildly irritated to completely offended. most think they're being solicted somehow and run for their lives, which has to be a problem

happy b-day EdVB!!

I've never been "exit polled" but I have to admit I would lie.

The exit poller would not even get far enough for me to lie. In a neighborhood like mine you learn to automatically say no before thay can even open their mouths. Survival strategy.

Jack

Posted by colleen: "ok, now I'm on my way to the sunshine state - oops, am I allowed in? I'll go through the looking glass loophole!"

HA, colleen, contrary to what the DNC thinks, FLORIDA EXISTS on Trailmix. And here's a good one: the DNC has some nerve making fundraising calls to FL -- my Mom got one the other day, said, "Oh, I thought Florida didn't count" and hung up

Colleen
When was the last time you bought textiles from Mexico.
Ever?

Those textile mills didn't disappear because of NAFT.
Asia stole those jobs, just like the workers in the south stole them from folks in New England.

Jack

How's this for context? Gutterball is the name of a computer bowling game:

http://games.skunkstudios.com/games/gutterball3d

So what Hillary was saying is that she is the modern computer literate bowling candidate. Its a variation on the "change" theme -- change the way you bowl - don't go to the bowling alley anymore, just play from your computer at home. Could possibly work some family friendly themes in there too - spend more time with the family etc.

ha, labber, sounds like a bridge to the next lane

Good point Craig. My bowling is so bad that my gutter balls sometime do become bridges to the next lane.

Jack, I don't understand your point. How did Asia "steal" US jobs without the complicity of US corporations? And I must admit I've never bought textiles, even from Mexico. I'm really missing something here. Will you please enlighten me?

Colleen
It was in the article you posted. According to the writer, the South Carolina textile mills went to Mexico because of NAFTA.
A typical left wing nativist screed , from what I can tell and like most nativist screeds on the right and left full of holes and inaccuracies. IMO

Jack

Craig, like I've said to just about anybody who will listen....If the pols didn't do such crappy research (Ann Selzer is a notable exception), they wouldn't be near as surprised so often....

Unfortunately, they tend to do research by dollars instead of objectives. You're right -- I don't know where they get the people they do to conduct those interviews...Got my ideas, but I'm not going to speculate here....

If they'd spend a few more dollars on the front end, they could get decent results in about the same time (hint -- it would require a different way to recruit the sample and a different data collection method). People might even willing to pay more for it if they could get it correct once-in-a-while...

But what do I know? Since I don't have a degree from the Kennedy School of Govt (or some other esteemed Ivory Tower of Political Nonsense -- which don't normally offer Political Research as part of their curriculum), I don't seem to know what the hell I'm talking about...

It's not Halloween, but with all this talk of bowling, I thought I'd offer a little something for everyone's amusement...bowling for cats...

http://www.itsga.com/fun/cat_new.swf

Hello all. Fabulous to see so many new posters.

Did wonamini ever show again? Would love to be in touch with her; need her guidance on something.

Welcome to the new, and I missed you to the usual suspects.

BTW -- you could do a real-time exit poll with about a 95% Confidence Level and a +/- 2% Confidence Interval, including sample recruiting, survey development, data collection, and data analysis and reporting for about $50k per state, maybe a little cheaper....And you could actually trust the results....

Evening Posse...

Well, Florida is next on the agenda, and the Intrade data (as usual) provides its usual interesting insights...

http://www.central.edu/publicdocs/01%2D27%2D08FuturesMarketGraphs.pdf

The interesting data shows up in the Florida Republican Futures Market. I've been doing analysis on political futures markets for 8 years, and something has shown up in that market I've never witnessed before...

In the last five days, there have been four changes in the largest amount of support for a particular candidate. This suggests the market cannot discern a definitive leader in the FL market.

Between 1/18-1/23, Romney took a dramatic upswing in support (almost a 60% increase in relative price support). During that same time, McCain's support in the state decreased about 25%. However, since that time, the support for both candidates have swung both up and down about 15% each day.

On the Democratic side in Florida, Clinton holds as large a lead as Obama did in South Carolina prior to its primary. This is almost identical to what we saw prior to the Michigan primary. Twenty-four hours after the South Carolina primary, we have not yet seen a bump in Obama's support.

Unless the market completely misses an up-swell in Obama's support on the ground (which is entirely possible), this looks like it could be a big win for Clinton. The next 18 hours in the market will be critical, as 1) traders get back to work on Monday, 2) the media spins the ground game, and 3) the last polling data becomes available.

Nationally for the Democrats, there has been a perceptible shift in the market. From 1/20 to 1/26, the market had Clinton holding a steady, 2-to-1 lead over Obama.

In the last two days; however, there has been about a 10% shift, with Clinton losing support, while Obama's support increased by about the same amount. With the exception of the period between 12/27 and 1/19, this market has had only slow moderations in candidate support. Whether we are entering another period of volatility remains to be seen.

With so many people joining the posse, I guess I should have pointed people to the tutorial on Presidential Futures Markets...

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/01/florida-to-forecast-both-party-1.html#comment-16896

dog...Wonamini was here yesterday following the SC primary, so she's still around. I believe she's working on the Obama campaign...at the very least, supporting him vigorously...and she was thrilled with yesterday's results. Hope you catch up with her soon....

spike
how accurate is the market as a predictor factor??

spike
how accurate is the market as a predictor factor??

spike
how accurate is the market as a predictor factor??

upps button got stuck lol sorry

anthyrio -- "how accurate is the market as a predictor factor??"

Historically, the market predicts the correct winner (and normally gets the order of finish in races with more than two candidates correct as well) about 76% of the time.

In this cycle, it has correctly predicted 8 out of 10 primaries or caucuses. It missed the NH Democratic primary and the MI Republican primary. McCain and Romney's support were actually within the market's +/- 2% margin-of-error 24 hours prior to the MI primary (but it didn't predict a winner, so I count that as an error). In those contests that it correctly predicted the winner, it was almost 100% correct in also predicting the order of finish (even in the crowded Republican race).

For a quick explanation of Presidential Futures Markets, please see:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/01/florida-to-forecast-both-party-1.html#comment-16896

Got to get some sleep -- Night y'all -- Spike

wow
I see according to Obamarans...
he is above all the rules

and Clinton isn't breaking any rule..that's what an exception is
I guess no one wanted to raise any money for Obama
too bad soooooo sad.

the arrogance of the Obamarans is breath taking

So now the Obama excuse for Clinton winning in Fla will be she cheated.....roflmao

I guess the smarty pants in the obama campaign figured out too late that million democrats in the state had already voted by the time they started cheating and ran their ad.

According to the SF Chronicle Obama is using the driver's license for undocumented workers issue in Cal...
I wonder how Claire"deport them all" McCaskill feels about that and what he is saying in Mo.

Also the reporter uses "spadeworlk" in the article
I did not know the Chronicle was a racist newspaper
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/28/MNH1UL57Q.DTL

Good morning all. Obama and Edwards were both in person in Georgia yesterday. I have a complete report (as promised) here with links to articles:

http://theaginghipster.blogspot.com/2008/01/georgia-primary-update-9-days-left.html

-Hipster

The thing on Florida....may I offer a fresh view?

Perhaps this is actually a no-lose deal for Obama. If Senator Clinton has to spend time there and actually wins, then she has to raise a stink to get her delegates. The way the press will spin it is "well, she wants to change the rules now to benefit herself." If she doesnt try to change the rules then she only gets a hollow victory.

Just a thought
Hip

Thanks for the posting Hipster....I stopped by and left a message. I do love early voting! I have to be at Vandy for tests most of the day, so you'll have to hold down the fort.

"Perhaps this is actually a no-lose deal for Obama."

Actually, the whole campaign is a no-lose deal for Obama. He's teflon. It all kind of reminds me of back when girls were falling down with tears in their glassy eyes over teen idols who'd been manufactured in the Brill Building. Just continue to call me one who remembers Fabian.

PS -- for any purists, I know Fabian came out of the Philly music machine, not Brill....just making a point...

Fabian Forte.....

If he's Fabian, who is Elvis?

Fabian was just a fill in until Elvis got out of the Army.

-Hipster

I am afraid i won't be holding the fort down too well. I have a 14 hour day ahead of me counting commute time. I might not even be back in today. Thats too bad, since from the looks of things the place is returning to discussion.

-Hipster

Former First Lady and Presidential Candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton was once President of the Fabian Forte Fan Club.

Sturg...

Seriously?

Hip

above from the wiki article

That could be a big liability with Jan and Dean fans

Hip

Hip.....well, seriously as in I read it in the Wikipedia article....lol

Time for Fabian to return the favor and endorse Hillary.

Economic Stimulus package explained in easy cartoon form:
http://www.mockpaperscissors.com/?p=6564

WHY DO REPUBLICANS WANT TO RUN AGAINST HILLARY?

"...Why? Because there exists a vault of information American voters are not aware of concerning the Clintons — information which should have been brought to the nation's attention well before the kickoff of the 2008 presidential campaign.

The bedeviling problem is that party leaders on both sides of the congressional aisle conspired two years ago to bury the telltale documents. I'm referring to the 120 missing pages of the Barrett Report which, by all accounts from Washington insiders, former press secretary Tony Snow among them, contain sufficient evidence of Clinton misdeeds not only to furl Mrs. Clinton's presidential flag but quite possibly to send her and her miscreant husband straight to the courtroom dock. Yet the papers have lain moldering in some deep Capitol Hill tomb with no one daring to dig them up though they can be exhumed on demand by any member of Congress..."

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20080124/EDITORIAL/774081954

GO OBAMA

YES WE CAN

Anne