Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Hillary showed emotion.

Muskie showed emotion = the kiss of death.

Den showed screaming emotion = kiss of death.

tt

Dean

tt

It's Obama and McCain! Print it! Overnight quickly for South Carolina...let's roll it!

Either way, someone'll say something nasty... they used to say she was too robotic..to shrill.. too stiff.. now it'll be too emotional.. she can take it..

when's SC? i havent been paying attention..

Great job, Craig! Just you wait, everyone...in 2012 Dixville Notch will be completely ignored by the media in favor of Hart's Location, with Craig and the NH Trailspotters leading the way!

Good night, everyone! I'll try to post from the busy trail tomorrow.

U.S. Describes Confrontation With Iranian Boats (NYTimes)

What would Obama do?

Craig -- must respectfully disagree about Clinton calling for a "cooling off" period....That's like asking your house to stop burning down until the fire department arrives....

Joe Trippi, in speaking with Chuck Todd, had a very cogent analysis of the current situation from Edwards' viewpoint (which appears now to also apply to Clinton)...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/07/556321.aspx

"He equates Obama to a speeding bullet. Don't get in the way but if the bullet slows down (and it may not) for whatever reason (it just does, a Dean moment, big screw up) then Edwards can be there waiting around at the "drain." You can't fall in the drain, but you can hang around and wait for the right moment... Edwards can afford to wait around. Not as big of staff, they operate on a much smaller scale than Clinton. Also Hillary having been the front runner doesn't want to tarnish the image of the Clinton legacy and can't take the losses, so assumes Trippi. She also won't have the money coming in anymore. Besides the fact that so many of her donors are maxed out.

Looking forward to it, Claire!

Directions to Crawford Notch...Maybe we could have the first TrailMix convention (or at least a picnic) at Crawford Notch State Park...

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Crawford+Notch,+New+hampshire&ie=UTF8&ll=44.25061,-71.410446&spn=0.418064,0.925598&z=10&om=1

Count me in! Eastcoasters unite!!

For Tylenol:

http://www.vote-smart.org/election_president_state_primary_dates.php

Michigan: Jan. 15...next large focus , then S.Carolina Jan. 26

Great idea, Spike! Let me know what I can do to help plan it! :-)

OK...now I'm REALLY off to bed. Good night, all!

Intrade Presidential Futures Market Update (11:53 CST)

Probability of Winning New Hampshire:
Obama 92%
Clinton 6%
Edwards 0.2%

McCain 77%
Romney 20%
Paul 1.9%
Huckabee 0.9%

great idea Spike, but how about Crawford Notch convention in the summer? or Labor Day campaign kickoff? anything but winter

luv it, Spike. a meetup there would be nifty. we could pay homage to "trail builder" Abel Crawford (you know, there are those who believe that he will one day rule from Missouri)

Here's a town about 20 bucks of gasoline from my home:
CRAWFORD, OHIO

Crawford is in Coshocton County.

The latitude of Crawford is 40.409N. The longitude is -81.751W.
It is in the Eastern Standard time zone. Elevation is 860 feet.

The population, at the time of the 2000 census, was 1,594.

Abel Crawford! We are not worthy!

Or we could plan a trip to Crawford, TX...I have a litter box and some dog poop I need to dispose of and since this President doesn't care what crap gets dumped where...we could have fun with a balloon launcher...

Which reminds me, not that I don't mind not hearing him on the news, but do we still have a President running this country?

sure do, bear...he's fixin' t'do sumthin 'bout inflation...

I though both shows were okay...what I couldn't figure out is if they were for the writers or not.

well, going back to my quest for cash-on-hand clinton numbers, one of her florida fundraisers tells me that some of her big contributors are furious at the campaign's spending spree in iowa -- the buzz in those circles is that she spent $35 million in the last two months, most of it in Iowa. is that possible, spike? those must have been really expensive shovels.

well, if that's true she might be in a money crunch. her last quarterly report showed $51 million cash on hand at the end of september. let's say she spent 10M in october and 35M across november and december. that's 45M. subtract that from her last CoH report of 51M. That leaves 6M. And add the 20M that i've heard she raised in this quarter. Best case scenario would be 26M cash on hand, but that's not counting what she spent in the last 8 days of january (probably her hottest daily burn rate so far).

Anybody have a clue what a competitive advertising budget might be for Feb. 5 states? It must be staggering. Add that to campaigning costs for these next few primaries and assume very little incoming cash. Not a pretty picture.

CNN reporting that James Carville is willing to join the HRC campaign if Mark Penn leaves...

interesting about Carville. if true, you can bet she's not contemplating a graceful exit to the high ground -- it'll be butt ugly with coroporal cue ball in charge

Wow! if Shirley McLaine finds this out, she might kick Dennis Kucinich 6 mil! Then it's square one, baby!

All I heard is "the $200,000,000 between Obama and Hillary".
I am truly shocked to read she spent most of hers already.

Begala and Stephanopulous are itchin' for a fight, too....

Goodbye "Change"...Hellllloo-o-o-o-o-.......K Street !

>>the buzz in those circles is that she spent $35 million in the last two months, most of it in Iowa. is that possible, spike?

Dean spent $40M here in 2004. $35M is certainly plausable...

In October, 2006, I did a strategy assessment for a candidate who ultimately decided not to get into the race. Given the person's name awareness (they had about 5% name recognition nationally at the time), and assuming Obama and Clinton were both in the race, my estimate was that it would take about $100M to get them through South Carolina.

$35M to $50M for a one-week, 20 state campaign, including staffing, logistics, event planning, and advertising flights probably wouldn't be out of the ballpark. You could probably cut that down to $10M to $20M if you concentrated only on the major markets in the major states.

My 0.0135907 euros...

Corporal Cue Ball...funny stuff!

But he's a pitiful guy...Mrs. Cue Ball could freeze a clock with one glare.

The Clintons don't take prisoners...This is going to look like the Alamo before this is all over...You're about to witness the biggest pissing contest the country's ever seen....Watch for WJC to go to the Left Coast by the end of the week for more money.

And Craig, makes some calls and find out what Whooley's up to....I personally watched John Kerry rise from dead before my eyes here in 2004 because of him. If I had the choice between Carville and Whooley, I'll take Whooley every time.

I'm going to hit the hay (as I am from Iowa, I can do that, you know). Watch for my big "stalking horse" conspiracy theory tomorrow....

Night y'all....

Craig,

I was alarmed to hear that HRC spent at least $30 Million in Iowa and was actually outspent by Obama. From what I was reading earlier, she has to keep $18 Million set aside for the general. Do we know if that number was broken out from the previous quotes. I wouldn't be shocked to learn that they used it to inflate the October numbers so they could "stay ahead" of Obama. That would put her cash on hand at under $10 million.

Have you seen any polling data from California yet?

I think HRC will win in NY, CT, AR and CA for sure. After that, who knows.
I wonder if Edwards can pull out GA and MS.
I like Obama in IL, WI

The rest of the states I have no guess...especially the southwest and TN...what do you think?

"When Mighty Horse rocks
he rocks the fat ass"

--Ronnie Bennington, XM The Virus

Nite all.

I find it ironic that many of you who are pining for the glory of the Clinton years are so ardently against the man who helped craft the campaign that put him there.

You all forget that Bush was at a 90% approval rating within 18 months of that general election. From what I remember, that campaign was disciplined, had no problem staying on message and they were prepared for every line of attack that came their way...funny, I just described Bill Belichick...lol

I can now understand why Fry takes such great glee in needling you folks because the impression I get at times is that you would much be in a position to complain about the person in charge because you weren't able to elect your perfect candidate. As we say in the sales world, 70% of something is a lot better than 100% of nothing.

Another Republican sex incident.....this one involving lap, as opposed to tap, dancing...

CLIFTON PARK - Former Rep. John Sweeney had another brush with the law recently. Sweeney narrowly avoided being charged with theft of services after refusing to pay a cab fare for a ride from a strip club.

For all you Joe haters,

He asked Senator Clinton how she was doing after the tear. She gave a nice response and it all was very possitive about caring for this country.

Missed Joe's anything....watching The Fog.

Mit Romeny's comment "Senator Killer" makes Obama look strong.....I think he's not helping the situation very early on.

Morning Patsi

Have a good day. Remember there is always February 5th. If she wins, it will be all the more sweet.

I still don't see the sexism, except for our beloved tweety who is soooooo blaten.

7:15 on Joe, Clinton will be making a comment about Chris Matthews....you'll have to tell me about it. I have to go to work.

The time stamp not right on this post...reading "January 8, 2008 1:00 PM"(I think it should be 1:00am)..

Does that count as a typo? We can call it a "time-po"...LOLOLOLOL!!!

I'm not going to talk about sexism anymore, Sheila....I'm just gonna go iron some shirts.

So nice to have Maggie Rodriguez on 5 mornings a week now!

It was still dark at 6:00 am when I went to vote this morning. There were only a few people standing outside with signs for their candidates, but when I walked into the school there were over a hundred people waiting in line to vote with more streaming in as we waited. It was quiet in the line, I think most people were sleepy, since this was the crowd that was voting early, before going to work. It was one of the longest lines I remember in the years that I have been voting at this school.

The line was moving pretty fast. Unenrolled voters can choose what primary they want to vote in, then go sign a sheet to keep them unenrolled. If don't do this you become enrolled in which ever party 's primary you voted in.

The ballot was very simple, just candidates, no propositions or anything like that.

There were a significant number of people that were going back to remain unenrolled. As I walked out of the polling area the line was getting longer. Outside there were a few more prople with signs of support, and more cars were pulling up and looking for parking spots.

Snow last night.

http://www.savagechickens.com/blog/2008/01/snowman.html

"Portrait in Cynicism: Hillary Attacks Obama from Every Angle"

For Arianna to talk about Hillary's cynicism is like a cobra complaining that a rattlesnake is poisonous.

Arianna the "former republican" ?

Jamie,

Obama doesn't have to attack Hillary, everyone else is doing it form him so he looks like he is above it all.

Yes, I can well remember Arianna's conservative commentator past. She was one of the most aggressive conservatives out there until she got religion (politically speaking, of course) and became a liberal. I don't have a problem with commentators criticizing those in their own party sphere - I can ignore them when I disagree just as well as I can ignore the idiots of the right.

Here's an article about Gallup's recent national poll - looks like Obama's riding the crest.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/7/171412/8463

Bowman, that's right - this week.

btw, Craig, Crawford's notchis beautiful, even by NH standards, which are very high.

Richardson got a vote in Dixville Notch! We've got the momentum now!

wow........I never knew that Hulk Hogan wore strands of barbed wire for a condom......

sturg??? wt...?

Bush campaign mouthpiece from '04 joins McCain. KC, you should love this.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/07/bushcheney-mouthpiece-bo_n_80293.html

Pogo.....sorry........was listening to the Hulkster on Imus when he slipped that phrase into his diatribe......I thought it was in very bad taste, of course, and I reacted too quickly with my original thoughts......

Well, not to disparage Crawford's Notch, and not to suggest that the crowd in plaid and wool (just kidding, bu thave you ever been there?) is any more predictive than they are in general elections, but here are the results from the traditional first in the nation polling place - Dixville Notch.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/the-results-in-dixville-notch/

I wondered where the hell that could have come from - from the horse's ass' mouth, I see.

And I guess that should suggest the grounds for the divorce he's embroiled in.

lol

God help us - Huckleberry is saying he's first in nationwide Gallup poll. Running on affability only seems to be working for him.

the republicans will take care of old Opie wan kenobe.....if they have to, I mean........

Can Americans really be that stupid? Did I actually ask that?

I heard a funny line yesterday on the radio - can't remember who said it, but it was that the Republican establishment has to be panicking that there is a chance that the Repug nominee might be a guy who looks and seems like a cross between Gomer Pyle and Kevin Spacey - an incredibly apt description IMHO.

Well, gotta go and do some work - later dudes & dudettes.

Thanks for changing the time stamp...I was getting so confused. :)

NEW THREAD

I went over and read Arianna's diatribe about Clinton - my god she better hope Hillary doesn't win the nomination - unless Rudi the snake wins the repug nomination it will be hard to support such a vile person against that affable aw shucks hayseed Huckleberry.