Tonight at 8:00 PM EST on CNN meet The Bickersons of the Democratic Party. The Bickersons was a radio comedy sketch series that began in 1946 on NBC with Don Ameche and Frances Langford. Wikipedia says: “The show's married protagonists spent nearly all their time together in relentless verbal war, and many people believed that the show's sourly cynical take on the institution of marriage was detrimental to the nation's post-World War II health."

Join us now in Comments for live blogging of the showdown between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

While we wait for the festivities to begin, here’s some vintage dialogue from The Bickersons program:

"Blanche: You used to be so considerate. Since you got married to me you haven't got any sympathy at all.
John: I have, too. I've got everybody's sympathy.
Blanche: Believe me, there's better fish in the ocean than the one I caught.
John: There's better bait, too."

Craig on “Live with Dan Abrams”
Thursday (1/31) MSNBC 9:30 PM EST

 

. . . and on "Imus in the Morning"
Friday (2/1) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:29 AM EST

 

A sampling of caption submissions from comments to our morning post . . .

• "You think this is something? Hell, I once had the entire country by the tail." -- Patsi
• "He saw his shadow...six more weeks of vote counting." -- Katherine Graham Cracker
• "Mommy's got plans for you!" -- Corey
• “Chad (hanging) & Katherine Harris.” -- blueINdallas
• “Which twin is the turkey?” -- jamie
• "What do you think is prettier - this possum, my radaint smile, or my magnificent breasts (which for about 5 grand you can have, too)?" -- pogo
• “Katherine Harris finally defeats someone!” -- Mike in No. VA
• “One is a frightening, furry, furtive nocturnal animal that plays dead when faced with dangerous opposition. The other is a possum.” -- WACPAC

It was Dr. Strangelove versus Eddie Haskell at the Ronald Reagan library on Wednesday.

There was a time, like maybe Monday afternoon, when I thought Mitt Romney might be Ward Cleaver, the button-downed Dad whose melodious platitudes could hypnotize a nation.

But no, by last night at the California debate table, Romney instead came across as the conniving Eddie, flashing an occasional dark-side glare at neighborhood rivals while sitting up dutifully straight and innocently smiling for Republican Den Mother Nancy Reagan in the front row.

Enter John “Strangelove” McCain, who can launch battle ships with a single smirk. About 45 minutes into a debate that had sputtered into a ditch of hazy economic statistics, the Arizona senator woke up and concluded that it was time for Romney to perish.

Never mind that McCain distorts his prey's words to do the job. The ensuing dust-up produced a devastating moment (and nobody likes Romney anyway). After McCain had read aloud a typically vague Romney statement, the former Massachusetts governor offered this remarkable response to his own quote: "What does that mean?"

That's right, what had been widely suspected turns out to be true: Romney really doesn't know what he is talking about. Cue the mushroom cloud. Dr. Strangelove has just rid the neighborhood of a bully.

Today's Caption Contest

And in a final tribute to the earliest-ever Florida Primary, which McCain won on Tuesday in what could be remembered as the GOP’s king-maker contest, please indulge this posting of a photo depicting Katherine Harris holding a possum by its tail. As some of you might know, I collect goofy photos of my home state's former secretary.

Your suggested captions are welcome in Comments.

In tonight's Republican debate you can tell that John McCain learned his lesson about the pitfalls of being a frontrunner. Having been there and lost that in the past, the Arizona senator is not about to sit on his newly-minted lead in the GOP presidential race.

McCain landed hit after hit on rival Mitt Romney, at one point delivering one of the best roundhouse punches I've ever seen in a debate. In a line that powerfully used his strength -- military experience -- to undercut Romney's strength -- business experience, McCain said, " I did it out of patriotism, not for profit.."

Not surprisingly, Romney knew that any pithy comeback could have risked belittling McCain's prisoner-of-war experience -- so he let the moment pass.

So long, Rudy and John. There are many reasons why Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards were forced to step aside today. But an overriding cause comes to mind in both cases: Each were out of sync with their own party.

Giuliani’s moderate-to-liberal social views doomed the former New York mayor from the start. Social conservatives seem willing to accept some compromise in a 2008 nominee but not as much as he represents.

Edwards, as a white man, was not destined to prevail in a year when Democrats are so excited about breaking new ground with a woman or an African-American. But if he wants it, the former North Carolina senator might again run as No. Two.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Wednesday (1/30) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

Of all the candidates in either political party, only John McCain had a good night in the Florida presidential primary. The Arizona senator won a solid victory over Mitt Romney on Tuesday, proving to doubters that he really is a Republican -- even in a race where only party members could vote.

Rudy Giuliani is the biggest loser on the GOP side, quitting the campaign to endorse McCain. And Mike Huckabee lives for another day, but on life support.

For someone who ran away with the vote, Hillary Rodham Clinton faced a tough time getting the news media to seriously report a win that does not immediately translate into Democratic convention delegates. Florida must still wage a bruising battle for its voting rights.

According to the overall vote totals, Barack Obama did not get a natural bump from his recent South Carolina win or the Kennedy family endorsement – although his camp will surely tout exit polls that suggest a surge among last-minute votersl. But to do that, Obama supporters will have to say Florida matters -- and so far they have said it does not.

Harry Truman’s great advice to “get a dog” if you want a friend in Washington never gets old – and  it’s a thought that must occur to Rudy Giuliani’s campaign team after trying to do something nice for the media.

The Republican hopeful autographed baseballs as a gift for his traveling press corps on the eve of today’s Florida primary. And what did the former New York mayor get from reporters for his touching gesture? They turned on him, saying it shows that he is finished.

Even one of Giuliani’s hometown newspapers, the New York Post, interpreted the gift as “signaling that his daily interactions with the media were coming to an end.”

Let that be a lesson for politicians in their relations with the media: Never offer your hand to the dog that bites you.

ORLANDO – John McCain’s erratic journey in presidential politics begins anew today in Florida’s presidential primary.

Even if the Arizona senator does not win, he can perform well enough to leverage his national fame next week on Super Duper Tuesday.

Florida is uncharted territory for McCain. So far, both of his 2008 victories evoked dramatic turning points from his first run in 2000. New Hampshire, as it did eight years ago, brought his candidacy to life. Winning South Carolina's nod last week made up for a sour loss in 2000 to George W. Bush.

But McCain arrived in Florida with little presidential campaigning history in a state that was not in the mix for his last race. A big win here would almost guarantee the gold for him. It would prove that he can win a closed primary where only party members can play, giving pause to those who say he is not a real Republican.

Losing to Mitt Romney would be a bitter defeat for McCain. The wealthy, well-born former Massachusetts governor is so Bush-like, giving the appearance of another legacy nominee who could stand in McCain's way.

While on paper it would seem that Romney’s tailored looks and outside-Washington business acumen are closer to what Florida Republicans prefer, McCain has been on the national stage a long time and, despite misgivings among conservatives, he is poised to win enough support to keep on going.

More Florida Trail Mix
Florida Primary Scene Setter

The Republicans

• Bush Talk Boosts Romney?  Post-Bushie Appeal
• Romney is No Joke: The Man To Beat 
• Romney Gets a Pass to the Top: A Debate Score 
• McCain's Humility Offensive: Conservatives Balk 
• McCain's Florida Bid Looks Cloudy: A Rough Start

The Democrats

• Florida to Test Kennedy Magic: Bump Watch 
• Bowling for Florida: Clinton and Obama Sneak Around
• On to Florida: Gaming The Nation's Biggest Swing State
• Clinton Embraces Outlaw States: Credentials Fight Looms 
• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races: Super Tuesday Preview

 

Craig on MSNBC Tuesday (1/29) All Times EST
“Morning Joe” -- 6:30 AM and 10:00 AM
“Hardball with Chris Matthews” -- 5:00 / 7:00 PM
"Decision '08," The Florida Primary -- 7:00 to 10:00 PM 

.  

ORLANDO -- Aside from being reminded that he still exists, watching George W. Bush give his final State of the Union address makes me think about its impact on the Florida Primary. (Yes, I know, two million citizens voting tomorrow in my home state is a bit of an obsession for me.)

Bush on my television makes me consider just what a profound choice that Florida Republicans must make in deciding whether to anoint John McCain or Mitt Romney as the party’s next frontrunner for the nomination.

Choosing McCain as the Republican nominee would make it more difficult for the party to distance itself from an unpopular president. As a relentless supporter of the war in Iraq, the Arizona senator is inevitably tied to an issue that could imperil Republicans in the general election.

Romney offers a chance to move Republicans away from being seen as the party of Bush. The former Massachusetts governor is not shy about keeping his distance from the president. He often talks about restoring the GOP as the party of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush -- pointedly excluding the current president from that list. 

Romney’s stronger case for leading a post-Bush party might just come to mind as Florida Republicans watch the president as they think about going to the polls tomorrow.

Craig on State of the Union Post-Game
MSNBC with Host David Shuster
Tuesday (1/29) 12:00 AM Midnight EST

 

 . . . and on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Tuesday (1/29) 6:30 AM EST

 

. . . and on MSNBC "Florida Primary"
Tuesday (1/29) 9:00 AM EST

 

It is no accident that Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts endorsed Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama today -- the day before the Florida primary.

The Obama camp has not been able to improve his poll standing in Florida, despite a week-long run of television advertisements in the state and extensive news coverage of his South Carolina victory over the weekend.

Kennedy’s endorsement is clearly aimed at slowing down Hillary Rodham Clinton’s momentum in Tuesday’s Florida primary -- or, if the Massachusetts Democrat’s backing for Obama does not trim Clinton’s lead, the hope is that at least it will undercut tomorrow’s news coverage of the primary.

While agreeing to skip direct campaigning in Florida as a result of a party flap over the primary calendar, the Clinton and Obama forces have run underground efforts that are boosting early voting and absentee ballots to record levels. Clinton expects a wide lead in Tuesday’s balloting to give her a boost toward next week’s collection of 22 primaries and caucuses.

If Kennedy’s endorsement means anything, its first test comes tomorrow in Florida.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Monday (1/28) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

. . . and on State of the Union Post-Game
MSNBC with Host David Shuster
Tuesday (1/29) 12:00 AM Midnight EST

 . . . and on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Tuesday (1/29) 6:30 AM EST

 

ORLANDO -- Florida Republicans are set to anoint the party’s next national frontrunner in Tuesday’s presidential primary, while Democrats could prove whether or not Barack Obama gets a natural bump from his South Carolina victory over the weekend.

State officials are stunned by record levels of early voting in both parties. More than 350,000 Democrats and 400,000 Republicans have already voted by mail or in person -- that is almost four times as many Democrats as in the 2004 presidential primary, and a two-fold increase in GOP activity.

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney owns the ground game and the television air war against John McCain, who outgunned the field in last-minute party endorsements, including Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez. In a risky gamble, Rudy Giuliani stakes his entire presidential bid on Florida, while Mike Huckabee all but takes a pass on the huge expense of competing for the nation’s fourth-largest state. 

Latest Florida Polls:
CQ Politics Polltracker

Hillary Rodham Clinton, eager for some good news after her South Carolina defeat, is the only Democrat taking Florida seriously, promising a convention fight to seat the state's nominating delegates this summer. Last year, the candidates agreed to a campaign ban after Florida insisted on leapfrogging the primary calendar, provoking the Democratic National Committee to strip the state of its convention voting rights.

Still, even a beauty contest that awards no delegates could provide some meaning in the Democratic race. Next week, so many states vote on Super Duper Tuesday that candidates have had little time to effectively campaign for them.

What Florida’s expected pool of one million “untouched” Democratic voters decide in Tuesday's primary will offer a rough preview of what similarly situated voters decide a week later in 22 states throughout the country on Feb. 5.

More Florida Trail Mix

The Republicans

• Romney is No Joke: The Man To Beat 
• Romney Gets a Pass to the Top: A Debate Score 
• McCain's Humility Offensive: Conservatives Balk 
• McCain's Florida Bid Looks Cloudy: A Rough Start

The Democrats

• Bowling for Florida: Clinton and Obama Sneak Around
• On to Florida: Gaming The Nation's Biggest Swing State
• Clinton Embraces Outlaw States: Credentials Fight Looms 
• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races: Super Tuesday Preview

Did Democratic whiners just get Hillary Rodham Clinton’s answer to complaints about her hard-nosed campaign style?

“I am a gutterball bowler,” the New York senator said tonight in Florida, according to a Miami Herald blogger. The reporter could not ascertain the actual context of Clinton’s remark to a well-wisher at a bowling alley, the Lucky Strike Lanes on Miami Beach.

Florida? That’s right, Clinton is in the state that Democrats are supposedly ignoring for its primary on Tuesday. She’s exploiting a loophole in the campaign ban that allows fundraising -- but still pseudo-campaigning with the occasional photo opportunity on this final weekend before an expected one million Democrats go to the polls.

Clinton’s main rival, Barack Obama, can’t complain. He is running television commercials on cable news networks that reach six million Florida homes, but claims no violation of the rules on the grounds that the cable companies could not delete Florida from his nationwide buy.

Here is my transcript of the Obama ad seen on Florida cable outlets for the past week:

"BARACK OBAMA: I’m Barack Obama and I approve this message.

OBAMA (2004 Democratic National Convention): We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes.

Announcer: After college and law school, Barack Obama could have cashed in. Instead he fought for change. Working to rebuild an area torn apart by plant closings.

HARVARD LAW PROFESSOR LAURENCE TRIBE: It was inspiring, absolutely inspiring to see someone as brilliant as Barack Obama… take all of the talent and devote it to… making people’s lives better.

Announcer: In Illinois he brought Republicans and Democrats together. Cutting taxes for workers and winning healthcare for children.

ILLINOIS STATE SENATOR KIRK DILLARD: Senator Obama worked on some of the deepest issues we had and he was successful in a bipartisan way.

Announcer: And in the U.S. Senate, he’s led on issues from arms control to landmark ethics reform.

U.S. SENATOR CLAIRE McCASKILL: It was hard to get that ethics bill passed. This is a man who knows how to get things done. He understands that we’ve to move forward with a different kind of politics.

OBAMA: There is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America."

More Trail Mix: Democrats in Florida

• On to Florida: Gaming The Nation's Biggest Swing State
• Clinton Embraces Outlaw States: Democratic Credentials Fight
• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races: Super Tuesday Preview 

Talk about killing with kindness. Supporters of Barack Obama should be wary of the news media’s feverish gushing for the Democratic White House hopeful.

For starters, it was media romanticism – not Hillary Rodham Clinton’s hardball campaigning – that made Obama the “black candidate.” This happens, albeit unwittingly, every time a journalist waxes poetic about the historic step forward of seeing an African-American in a viable run for the presidency. (And yet, when Bill Clinton talks about Obama’s appeal to black voters, it is decried as "injecting race.")

Obama also runs the risk of a backlash against the media being seen as force feeding him to Democratic primary voters.

In South Carolina, the anti-Clinton media frenzy might have suppressed Obama’s white vote as much as any other possible cause – although many appeared to move toward John Edwards instead of Clinton. A similar backlash against media overkill probably contributed to Obama’s last-minute loss to Clinton in New Hampshire.

The Washington press club’s love affair with Obama allows many of a certain generation to indulge the fantasy of returning to their youth as starry-eyed believers in John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy. Hence, the voluble response to Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement in today’s New York Times and the trembling expectations of a similar move by Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Still, Obama could be excused for welcoming media group think that has gone stark raving mad for his candidacy. But in the long run he might be well advised to dismiss the hype and build a relationship with voters that remains independent of what fickle journalists say.

The baseless narrative that Bill Clinton is race baiting his wife’s way to the White House took another turn on Saturday with the accusation that somehow the former president is not allowed to point out the voting history of a key state.

Responding to reports that Barack Obama would win the South Carolina primary on Saturday, Clinton noted that Jesse Jackson won the state in 1984 and 1988. Cue the woe-is-us cries of neo-racism, hammering Clinton for stating a historical fact (though he did not mention that Jackson, a South Carolina native, won lower-turnout caucuses).  

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign would not be out of bounds in noting that her African-American rival won South Carolina's majority black primary electorate. And Pres. Clinton had every right to observe that black presidential candidates tend to do quite well on the state’s Democratic nomination ballots.

Obama on Offense

The Obama camp was smart to gin up any plausible rationale for sidelining or ridiculing the former president. For the most part, he is an asset for his wife, the New York senator. 

It was certainly brilliant for Obama’s team to enlist the aid of the news media in stirring up racial resentment against the Clintons – going back to New Hampshire when reporters and pundits promoted the bogus notion that Obama lost the state because of racism. That still unproven charge had to help Obama’s forces get the attention of African-American voters in South Carolina.

But it was sad to see so many in the news media become tools for one campaign’s agenda.

ORLANDO -- If Barack Obama won lasting momentum with his Democratic primary victory tonight in South Carolina, the first test comes in Florida on Tuesday.

While officially unofficial due to a party spat over the primary calendar, Florida’s balloting is expected to draw as many as one million Democrats to the polls. If the news of Obama’s South Carolina win holds any sway over later states, surely the Florida primary results -- just three days away -- will show a boost for the Illinois senator.

If Obama does get a South Carolina bump in Florida, Hillary Rodham Clinton might regret trying to put the state back on the political map. The New York senator and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, both promoted the upcoming Florida vote in their reactions to tonight's South Carolina results.

If South Carolina has no effect on Florida this Tuesday, it seems unlikely to make much of a difference a week later on Super Duper Tuesday.

More Trail Mix 

• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races
• Party Feud Risks Shotgun Marriage

I had my say this morning on MSNBC, so I’ll let NewsBusters’ Mark Finkelstein lead off this afternoon’s thread – Craig

Now on NewsBusters: “Count Craig Crawford as a dissenting voice in the media storm blaming the Clintons for the injection of race into the Dem primaries. The Congressional Quarterly columnist and MSNBC political analyst offered his unconventional wisdom on a special Saturday edition of Morning Joe today. We can debate Crawford's analysis, but credit him for bucking the avalanche of conventional wisdom. I'd say he raises good questions about the media's role in raising race as an issue in this campaign.” Click Here for Video.

And this from the folks at Media Matters (2:35 PM)
Craig Crawford: "The evidence-free bias against the Clintons in the media borders on mental illness." 
Click Here for Story and Video 

From Buddy's Bemusings (4:10 PM): "Well, you could have stuffed our goose and fried it in fat. . . . We were struck by Crawford's determination to stick to his opinion, even though he was outvoted 2 to 1, or maybe even 3 to 1, in the debate." Click Here for Full Blog 

This topic is now open for comment 
on the Morning Joe Message Board

ORLANDO -- So much for the Democratic National Committee trying to pretend that Florida and Michigan do not exist. Hillary Rodham Clinton upped the ante on Friday for an escalating fight over seating delegates from renegade states to the party’s national nominating convention.

"I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan," Clinton said in a written statement.

Clinton's announcement sparked a new round of debate over the DNC's decision last year to strip those states of convention delegates as punishment for scheduling early primaries. If Clinton wins this fight she could add the bulk of about 300 convention votes to her tally -- a potentially decisive bloc if the Democratic race goes all the way to the convention.

More About This Story: CQ Politics

Barack Obama's camp immediately issued a statement on Friday opposing convention voting rights for Florida and Michigan, arguing that Clinton is trying to talk up Florida's primary on Tuesday out of fear that she will lose today's primary in South Carolina. "Now that Senator Clinton’s worried about losing the first Southern primary, she’s using Florida for her own political gain by trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred." 

Democrats agreed to ban Florida and Michigan campaigning in order to protect the first-in-the-nation status for Iowa and New Hampshire. But now that the traditional kickoff states are behind them, Clinton and Obama are showing interest in Florida’s primary on Tuesday. While Clinton vows to restore the state's delegation, Obama is airing nationwide advertisements on cable news channels that happen to reach six million homes in Florida.

More Trail Mix: Florida to Forecast Both Party Races

In a move they might one day regret, Obama and John Edwards had their names removed from Michigan's Jan. 15 primary ballot, giving Clinton the only shot at bagging delegates if she wins her credentials fight at the convention.

The outcome of this byzantine struggle will be a long time coming, but for Tuesday's Florida primary Clinton is telling an expected turnout of one million Democrats that she is the only candidate who is willing to champion their voting rights at the national convention.

Craig on “Morning Joe”
South Carolina Democratic Primary
Saturday (1/26) MSNBC 7:00-9:00 AM EST

Perhaps Hillary Rodham Clinton should take a break from bashing a fellow Democrat and rally her party by taking on a Republican who is trashing her.

The New York senator got her opening in Thursday’s GOP debate when the soon-to-be-frontrunner Mitt Romney took several shots at her economic agenda and touted his own credentials as a businessman.

 “She takes her inspiration from the Europe of old, Big Brother, big government and big taxes,” Romney said in the last debate before Tuesday’s Florida primary. “I take mine from Republican ideals: small government, small taxes, individual freedom.”

How about this for Hillary’s response: Romney says he understands the economy, but what he really understands is how to profit from bankruptcies and lay off workers to get rich.

Even a cursory reading of the public record on Romney's years as a Boston-based investment executive shows that, while he helped turn around some companies, his handiwork also led to several bankruptcies (from which he profited) and to the layoffs of 4,551 workers at the following firms: American Pad & Paper, Dade International, LIVE Entertainment, and DDI Corp.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Friday (1/25) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

. . . and on "Morning Joe" SC Dem Primary
Saturday (1/26) MSNBC 7:00-9:00 AM EST

 

Democrats should fear Mitt Romney more than they think. Laughing him off as a phony Ward Cleaver overlooks the upside of that image.

Like the Dad on TV’s “Leave it to Beaver,” Romney offends no one. You can well imagine him also lounging around the house in a suit and tie dispensing platitudes to errant kids.

Most importantly, Romney endures such teasing without a hint of displeasure – and then goes on being just as goofily unwrinkled as ever. People like that.

Sure, there are those who gripe about his flip-flops on the “hot button” social issues, or who cringe at the sight of his creepily rigid strands of naturally tinted hair. But at the end of the day the man gently smiles with his head in that slight Reaganesque tilt and says something so benign, so forgettable and yet so intensely melodious that he lulls audiences into a silent chorus of head-nodding agreement.

Many times in town halls and other such settings I have watched Romney cast his spell. So much so that back in November I gave him my Trail Mix Stump Award after evaluating the personal appearances of all major candidates on both sides of the political aisles. There is a relentless and somehow endearing efficiency about his campaign style.

Debate Boost

On Thursday night in the final Republican debate before next week’s Florida primary, Romney finally did something that has eluded him so far in the campaign – he transferred his small-crowd appeal to the television tube.

If Romney’s earnest nerdliness can sell in a mass medium as well as it does in retail spaces, the former Massachusetts governor is not only a threat to his Republican rivals. He could be more of a danger to Democrats than they realize.

Romney is now effortlessly morphing from the fire-breathing social conservative wannabe of the early-state GOP primaries into the next phase of his shape-shifter candidacy. Before our glazing eyes, he evolves into the button-downed Republican version of an anti-Washington insurgent, evoking (if not consciously stealing) the stirring message of the Democratic Party’s champion of change, Barack Obama.

And when it comes to Clinton bashing, Obama is no match for Romney, who oozed out the line of the night in Thursday’s debate. “The idea of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do is something I can't imagine,” he said.

Savaging a foe with a joke that probably would get at least a slight chuckle from the  target himself? Sounds like Ronald Reagan to me. And oh yeah, seems like I remember Democrats writing him off as a joke in 1980.

ORLANDO -- What can it mean that only the moderators gave Mitt Romney a rough time in the latest Republican presidential debate?

It was as if Romney’s rivals did not understand that the wealthy businessman and former Massachusetts governor is on the verge of wiping them out. Or maybe they do know it, and have decided they are powerless to stop him.

Whatever the reason, Romney's opponents almost pretended he wasn't in the debate hall at Boca Raton's Florida Atlantic University on Thursday. Surely they were not already angling to be his running mate.

If Romney wins Florida’s primary on Tuesday – thanks in no small part to his massive television advertising buy – Romney could be unstoppable a week later on Super Duper Tuesday. He could be the only one with enough money to carry on.

This last debate before Florida Republicans go to the polls offered Romney's foes their only high-profile chance to take him on, considering that they cannot match his spending on ads in the state.

Letting Romney win this debate by default might well be remembered as the night that the 2008 GOP race sputtered to a close.

If John McCain can convince conservative Florida Republicans that he is one of them in tonight’s debate, the party's frontrunner-of-the-moment could win the state’s primary on Tuesday and probably go on to win the GOP nomination.

Perhaps the Arizona senator’s turnaround on immigration is the model for what he needs to do on other issues. After losing his frontrunner status earlier this year – partly due to his backing for immigration reform on Capitol Hill – McCain played the humility card. He began telling conservatives that they had a point, and he vowed to switch his priorities to emphasizing border control before again pursuing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

To win over conservatives in Florida’s closed primary – which allows only registered Republicans to vote – McCain will need to swear allegiance to tax cuts he once opposed and probably show some receptivity to the conservative side on issues such as opposing gun control.

The political calculus for McCain in this debate requires moving to the right just enough to win the state’s primary, but not so much that he loses his appeal to moderates and some Democrats who could help elect him in November.

Tonight’s Republican Presidential Debate at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton airs live on MSNBC and on msnbc.com from 9-10:30 p.m. EST.

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are moving so far apart that they might have to run together to save their party’s chances in November.

In an ominous aside on Wednesday, Obama questioned what might happen if he loses the Democratic presidential nomination to the New York senator and former First Lady.

“I have no doubt that once the nomination contest is over, I will get the people who voted for her,” the Illinois senator told the Christian Broadcast Network. “Now the question is can she get the people who voted for me?”

If Obama is even remotely suggesting that he and his supporters will not support a Clinton-led general election bid, then Clinton might be forced to consider choosing him as her running mate. Apparently, Obama is confident enough about his broad appeal to dismiss any need for Clinton on a ticket that he leads.

Still, if either Clinton or Obama wins the nomination, they might have to grin and bear it as a team. That is how politically lethal this racially-charged battle is becoming for Democrats.

It might sound counter-intuitive to civilians but sometimes in party politics even the angriest rivals for a presidential nomination can reach a point where they must join forces to win -- or perish apart.

John Kennedy picked a hugely aggressive Democratic competitor, Lyndon Johnson, to be his 1960 running mate. Ronald Reagan chose George H.W. Bush in 1980 after a bruising primary fight. Both tickets succeeded brilliantly at the ballot box, despite personal differences.

Earlier in this campaign, observers assumed that a woman and an African-American on the same ticket would be too much ground-breaking diversity for the nation to handle. But that was before things got so heated between the Clinton and Obama camps.

If the feuding gets much worse, binding them together might be the only way for Democrats to heal the divide.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Thursday (1/24) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

 

ORLANDO -- Florida’s Republican presidential primary on Tuesday is not friendly turf for Arizona Sen. John McCain to test his status as the party’s frontrunner of the moment.

For starters, Florida is running a closed primary, meaning that only registered Republicans can vote. And so far, that is a group McCain loses. He owed his New Hampshire and South Carolina victories to non-Republicans who were allowed to vote.

McCain is at odds with GOP rivals on some issues that ignite the party’s diehard voters. His moderate-to-liberal views on immigraton are not popular in Florida. Anti-tax Republicans are hearing a lot about his votes against President George W. Bush’s tax cuts. And it doesn’t help McCain that the primary ballot includes a tax cutting measure that is likely to attract economic conservatives to the polls.

Key state-specific issues are not playing into McCain’s hands. He opposes a national insurance pool that Florida politicians are pushing as a way to ease the burden on homeowners who suffer hurricane losses. McCain won’t sign on to basing a new aircraft carrier in Jacksonville – an idea that former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is touting in his bid for a comeback in Florida.

McCain’s many years in Washington could hurt him. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is running Florida television advertisements blasting Washington and anyone who works there.

Given what McCain is up against in Florida, a primary victory would confer major bragging rights and almost certainly propel him to the nomination.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Wednesday (1/23) MSNBC 8:15 PM EST

 

So long, Fred Thompson.

In a presidential campaign full of surprises, the award for Most Overrated would have to go to the former Tennessee senator whose bid for the Republican nomination seemed so promising – until it actually began. On Tuesday, he officially ended it.

Now the buzz about the Hollywood actor will focus on whether he endorses his longtime friend, Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Despite running one of the most dismal campaigns in history, Thompson might still make the list of potential GOP running mates -- a fitting role for such an accomplished supporting actor.

Thanks to Thompson’s television and movie career, CQ Politics imagines how he might have used his acting skills for a more compelling exit from the presidential campaign:

The Trail Less Traveled: Imagining Fred's Exit Speech

Who wins and who loses in the presidential campaign’s new focus on the economy?

On the Republican side, the big winner could be Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor can now emphasize his impressive background as a corporate turnaround artist. He made himself super-rich, so maybe he can do the same for others.

Other GOP winners: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani got in front of the new economic agenda weeks ago with a dramatic tax-cutting plan. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could find some advantage with his facility for populist anti-corporate rhetoric.

The GOP’s biggest loser in an economics-obsessed campaign might be John McCain. For starters, the Arizona senator opposed President George W. Bush’s tax cuts -- and his rivals are not shy about saying so in the campaign for Florida’s Jan. 29 primary. In McCain’s losing bid for the Michigan primary last week, he proved to be unsteady in a race that dwells on economic woes.

Democrats in general fare best when voters are looking for immediate economic relief. There are no big losers in their race on this score.

Hillary Rodham Clinton might find an edge by reminding voters of the economic boom during her husband’s administration, but looking backwards can be risky. Her rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, are trying to reach voters with more future-oriented appeals.

Craig on “Countdown with Keith Olbermann”
Tuesday (1/22) MSNBC 8:30 PM EST

. . . and on "Morning Joe"
Wednesday (1/23) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST

 

For the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday, it makes no sense for Hillary Rodham Clinton to play to win.

It would be better for the New York Senator to let her African-American rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, win South Carolina on the strength of his appeal to the black vote and instead shift her focus to the mass of 22 states that are voting on Feb. 5.

Clinton should play hard in the Palmetto State, as a sign of respect for a crucial voting bloc in her party’s base. But playing to win would require more divisive attacks on Obama that could alienate African-Americans for a November run, if she gets the party nod.

In the Democratic debate on Monday night in South Carolina, Clinton pressed a forceful case against Obama’s readiness to serve. Enough said. She and former President Bill Clinton should head for the high ground in the remaining days before South Carolina votes.

CQ Politics: Debate Bests and Mosts

Clinton can again get away with lowering expectations by appearing to cede South Carolina and its majority black primary vote. And what if commentators on Saturday night focus on exit polls showing that Obama won only because he ran away with the African-American vote? The Clintons might then argue that it proves his lack of broad appeal.

Republican presidential hopefuls all but skipped observing Martin Luther King Day, while Democrats exclusively focused on today’s holiday honoring the civil rights leader.

Not all of the GOP candidates ignored the occasion. On Sunday in Atlanta, GOP contender Mike Huckabee sat in a front row pew at the Ebenezer Baptist Church, where King preached from 1960 until his assassination in 1968. Mitt Romney greeted African-Americans at a King parade in Jacksonville (awkwardly saying, "Who let the dogs out? Who who").

Despite those efforts, the sharp divide between the political parties over the political significance of black voters was painfully obvious on this national holiday.

For Republicans, the intense pressure of their intra-party rivalry did not allow room for focusing on voters who play no meaningful role in their nomination balloting. It is a reminder of how little progress the party has made in reaching out to African Americans.

With just a week left to compete for support in Florida’s Republican primary, most of the party’s presidential candidates clearly could not spare much time to even pay lip service to a voting bloc that means almost nothing to them.

ORLANDO -- Republicans are the only presidential hopefuls campaigning for Florida’s primary, but that is no reason to ignore how the Democrats perform on the Jan. 29 ballot.

Indeed, Florida matters to the Democratic race precisely because the candidates are not here.

The Democratic campaign ban, provoked by a party spat over the primary calendar, actually makes Florida an intriguing laboratory for predicting the outcome of similar circumstances a week later on so-called Super Duper Tuesday.

So many states vote on that day -- Feb. 5 -- that candidates will not be able to get much more done for those primaries and caucuses than in Florida, where they are not campaigning at all. What’s worse, they will only have nine days after the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday to campaign coast-to-coast for Super Duper Tuesday's 22 states and one territory.

Sure, the voters in Feb. 5th states will at least see television advertisements that Florida voters are not seeing. But candidates are not likely to spend an estimated $30-35 million a week for truly effective ad buys in so many states. Just as in Florida, the voters might end up getting most of their information about Democrats from national news coverage.

If Super Duper Tuesday voters get about the same limited degree of exposure to the candidates as Florida gets, the Sunshine State would seem to be a better predictor than the early-voting states where candidates campaigned door-to-door.

America's Biggest Swing State

One million Democrats are expected to vote in Florida's primary. That is roughly as many voters as the combined total for all party ballots cast so far in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada.

Florida is the nation's biggest swing state in general elections and the largest state to vote so far in the nomination races -- more reasons to consider it a forerunner to Feb. 5, when bellwethers such as Missouri and behemoths such as California and New York go to the polls.

Even though the national parties have restricted the state’s voting power at the nominating conventions, Florida's primary is still poised to influence what follows. For both parties, expect next week’s results to forecast what happens a week later on Super Duper Tuesday.

ORLANDO -- Republicans all, come on down. Florida is waiting.

Fresh from a heartwarming South Carolina victory on Saturday, John McCain might have the most work to do for the Sunshine State’s pivotal Jan. 29 primary.

Understandably, McCain has been a bit preoccupied with engineering a Cinderella-like comeback, starting with a stunning New Hampshire win and culminating in his Palmetto State victory (with a brief Michigan setback in between). That did not leave much time for the Florida trail, but he’s got ten days to make it up.

Mitt Romney beat McCain to Florida on Saturday, choosing Jacksonville as the locale for accepting his victory in the Nevada caucuses.

Mike Huckabee’s second-place finish in South Carolina was not the boost he wanted for a Florida bid, but the Baptist preacher will find a massive following of homeschoolers ready to march.

Of course, nobody can top Rudy Giuliani when it comes to obsessing on Florida. He has been here so long that some think he might actually be running for governor.

There will be nothing like a Florida win to launch one of these final four GOPers into orbit for Really Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. And everything is in place for a hot campaign.

Polls show a four-way tie, there’s a nationally-televised debate on Thursday, and the average high temperature over the next 10 days will be 74 degrees.

It is always easy to tell when media prognosticators picked the wrong candidate to win an election, even when they fail to admit error. Instead, they say the actual winner, whom they predicted to lose, “won the expectations game.”

Expect a lot of talk about the expectations game in the wake of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s victory in the Nevada caucuses. Once again, a slew of pundits are spitting through the egg residue on their faces to explain away another round of predictions that the New York senator's main rival, Barack Obama, would win. Their specious argument goes like this: We would have correctly predicted this outcome if the dastardly winner had not deceived us.

Never mind that Nevada’s caucus system was destined to measure little more than a candidate’s sway over the state’s Democratic establishment, which was always firmly in Clinton’s camp. When Nevada’s Culinary Workers Union backed Obama shortly after the Illinois senator lost the New Hampshire primary, it was not the Clinton campaign’s fault that Obama’s media supporters overstated its impact.

Craig on "Decision '08"
Saturday (1/19) MSNBC
7:10 PM and 9:40 PM EST
(times subject to change)

What if voters in Nevada and South Carolina wake up today and actually make their own decisions? What if this is the year when presidential balloting results in earlier-voting states do not affect what happens next?

The longest-ever presidential campaign might mean that by the time the voting started in Iowa on Jan. 4th the electorate in later states had learned enough about the candidates to make choices without regard to the outcomes in earlier states. Like how New Hampshire picked different winners for both parties than Iowa did. Or how Michigan went a different direction than either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The unthinkable could be happening. We could be witnessing an end to the media echo chamber's long cherished power to build momentum by glorifying the winner in one state with effusive coverage that influences voters in the next round of primaries. 

If voters are making up their own minds without regard for media-anointed “frontrunners,” they might just get carried away and do their own thing on Feb. 5 when more than 20 states go to the polls.

This is revolutionary stuff. Without media-driven momentum, elections could be unpredictable and interesting. When voters stop caring about what the media predicts, those of us who make our living from covering politics might actually have to start talking about the here and now.

We might really have to INFORM VOTERS and ANALYZE what is ACTUALLY HAPPENING instead of telling everyone who will or should win. This could be fun.

Craig on "Decision '08"
Saturday (1/19) MSNBC
10am-12pm and 6pm-10pm EST

The most wide open presidential campaign in generations is turning into a chaotic free-for-all. And nerves are frayed.

Bill Clinton argues with a reporter over Nevada voting rules. Mitt Romney tangles with the media over lobbyists on his campaign team.

But just imagine how voters in a targeted state must feel when the heat of this campaign engulfs their daily lives. Thousands of political ads are flooding South Carolina's airwaves in advance of Saturday's Republican primary.

CQ Politics imagines what an afternoon of channel surfing in South Carolina might be like:

But At Least Somebody is Having Fun . . .

"I Got a Crush...On Hillary" (take that obama girl!)

"I Got a Crush...On Obama" By Obama Girl

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Friday (1/18) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

... and on "Decision '08" with Joe Scarborough
Saturday (1/19) MSNBC 10AM -12PM EST

A new tradition could be emerging in presidential politics. Call it the Last Stand Gambit.

Born of necessity in an age of compressed calendars, shrinking budgets and short attention spans, the idea is for contenders on the ropes to suggest that their candidacies could soon be terminated unless voters grant a stay of execution.

This ploy is sort of like holding a pistol to a puppy’s head and saying, “Vote for me or I’ll shoot.”

With so many candidates and so little time in this front-loaded rush of primaries, dithering voters appear reluctant to let their state be remembered as the one to end a major hopeful’s bid.

Democrats Play the Game

Democratic contender Barack Obama’s wife, Michele, might deserve credit for discovering the Last Stand Gambit. On several occasions before the Jan. 4th Iowa caucuses she broadly hinted that her husband could not keep going without a win in the state. Sure enough, the Illinois senator went on to clinch a dramatic victory in Iowa.

When down for the count before the New Hampshire primary a few days after the Iowa vote, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign openly suggested that time was running out for voters to keep the first politically viable woman in the race. The New York senator eked out a win.

Of course, the gamble in this gambit is that sometimes the voters call your bluff. John Edwards had made Iowa his end-all-and-be-all state. But the former North Carolina senator narrowly came in second and now struggles to be taken seriously. 

GOP Gamblers

On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain made New Hampshire his last stand and won. A week later, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won his native state of Michigan with the make-or-break theme.

Republican Mike Huckabee faces a do-or-die moment for Saturday’s Republican primary in South Carolina. Some voters who lean toward the former Arkansas governor and Iowa winner might go his way just to give him the fresh boost he needs to stay in the running.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has made a blatant pitch for last-minute sympathy in South Carolina, unhesitatingly declaring the state to be his last stand.

And on Jan. 29 in Florida, look for former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani to enter a plea with voters for his political life.

Democrats struggling to choose between New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the presidential nomination will have to take sides based upon their differences in style. There are no meaningful differences in substance -- a fact confirmed this week by an exhaustive comparison now on CQ Politics.

"Judging by their Senate records, voters could pick either one of them and get more or less the same package," CQ's David Nather writes.

Of course, puzzled Democrats could always opt for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, whose winnability took a major hit earlier this month with his failure to win in Iowa where he had devoted most of his time and resources.

But those who have winnowed their choices to Clinton and Obama, take heart. At least there are major differences in style to consider. For starters, this week the two rivals revealed opposing management styles. On other style points, Obama is by far the more moving speaker. Clinton is more experienced at backroom deal making on Capitol Hill.

Going forward, other stylistic differences will emerge. By default, those will have to be the deciding factors for Democratic voters.

Craig on "Hardball with Chris Matthews"
Thursday (1/17) MSNBC 5:40 PM EST

Does the Democratic Party seriously believe that the rest of the nation ought to pay any attention to the Nevada presidential caucuses on Saturday? Caucuses might make sense in a state such as Iowa, where voters have piled up at least 30 years of experience in the national spotlight with this bizarre ritual.

But the more we learn about Nevada’s first attempt at choosing nominees by having voters publicly take sides in a meeting room, the more it seems that the outcome should have no bearing on anything other than luring campaign cash to Las Vegas. Why not just wander into a casino and ask a bunch of drunks for a show of hands?

Voter turnout for this exercise is expected to be pitifully low. And even though no reputable pollster can credibly claim to have a clue about who will vote in this mess, here come the surveys to generate breathless reporting on their unreliable findings.

As with any caucus system, Nevada is wide open to abuse by people who are not registered, not living in the state, or not even legally in the country. And it is a system that disenfranchises anyone unable to attend these laborious meetings.

Labor unions and other groups can pack these sessions with throngs of workers and make sure they vote as instructed because this will not be a secret ballot.

It makes some sense to run caucuses in states like Iowa, where generations have honed this town-hall method of voting as a genuine reflection of their civic culture. But it is just plain dumb to take Nevada's caucuses seriously until we know more about whether it is a credible process.

It seems odd that Barack Obama went out of his way in Tuesday night’s Democratic presidential debate to describe his management style in ways that are bound to remind voters of George W. Bush’s above-it-all detachment.

“Being president is not making sure that schedules are being run properly or the paperwork is being shuffled effectively,” Obama said in the Las Vegas debate. “It involves having a vision for where the country needs to go.”

Those sentiments echoed the Illinois senator’s earlier comments to a Nevada newspaper’s editorial board.

“I’m not an operating officer,” Obama told the Reno Gazette-Journal. “Some in this debate around experience seem to think the job of the president is to go in and run some bureaucracy. Well, that’s not my job. My job is to set a vision of ‘Here’s where the bureaucracy needs to go.’”

On CQ Politics: Debate Bests and Mosts

Hillary Rodham Clinton took issue in the debate with Obama’s notion of how a president should operate, seizing an opportunity to portray him as a Democratic Bush. Their differing philosophies will likely play out in many ways as they compete for the party’s nomination.

"I think you have to be able to manage and run the bureaucracy - we've seen the results of a President who frankly failed at that," Clinton said, referring to Bush. "He went into office saying he was going to have this kind of Harvard Business School CEO model, where he'd set the tone, he'd set the goals, and then everybody else would have to implement it."

Voters tend to look for characteristics in a new president that are different from the last one. Look for Clinton to continue pressing the case that, while Obama is running on the hope and promise for change, his self-described management style sounds like more of the same.

Now on CQ Politics: Romney’s Michigan Roots and Sunnier Economic Talk Earn Him Needed Win

Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Wednesday (1/16) 6:29 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM

Republican Mitt Romney’s decisive win in Michigan’s presidential primary -- projected by the television networks on Tuesday as soon as the polls closed – sounds the trumpets for bruising battles ahead in South Carolina on Saturday and in Florida on Jan. 29.

With three major contests and three different winners so far in the GOP race, there is every chance for more new winners to emerge. Come Feb 5, when 21 states vote on what some call Tsunami Tuesday, there could be four or five Republican “frontrunners.”

All of which leads to the real possibility that no one gains the delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination before the summer. The prospect of a brokered GOP convention took a big step toward reality in Michigan.

While Romney will now work overtime to rally the party establishment, he will meet resistance. Many GOP leaders -- especially those who have been running against him -- personally dislike the former Massachusetts governor.

Still, Romney can press a persuasive case that the Michigan win earns him frontrunner status. This is his second victory (including Wyoming) and it follows two second-place finishes (Iowa and New Hampshire), giving him the best overall record to date. Also, he has the most delegates, the most votes and the most money (if you count his personal fortune). 

Despite those arguments, the party is fractured in many directions. And the man once considered the frontrunner, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, lies in waiting down in Florida -- which will be the final and biggest state to vote before Tsunami Tuesday.

Craig on MSNBC "Decision '08"
Michigan Primary / Democratic Debate
Tuesday (1/15) 11:00 PM to 1:00 AM EST

... and on "Imus in the Morning"
Wednesday (1/16) 6:29 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM

Michigan Republicans decide today whether their party’s presidential race is beginning to end, or is just beginning.

If John McCain adds another victory to his column, following his dramatic win last week in New Hampshire, the Arizona senator would be well on his way to wrapping up the GOP nomination. For starters, party elders would rally around him to avoid further chaos.

Anything other than a McCain win in Michigan could begin the party race anew. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could leverage a surprise victory for Saturday’s primary in South Carolina, where the Baptist preacher already holds an advantage with social conservatives.

Michigan is truly make-or-break for Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor and Michigan native would gain major bragging rights from a win today. It would be his second victory (including Wyoming), following second-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney would also have the most delegates, the most votes and the most money, if you count his personal fortune.

However the GOP race turns out, Michigan is destined to be remembered as its turning point.

Crawford weighs in on media race baiting:

Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams" (MSNBC, 1/14)
LISTEN HERE for audio only (by Mad Mustard)

Now on CQ Politics

• Primary Guide
• The Results So Far
• Election Map

If ever a state's voters – or at least their principal industry – were inclined to vote for self-interest in a presidential campaign, then Mitt Romney would win today’s Republican primary in Michigan. He even promises faster Mustangs.

Claiming that federal regulations disadvantage Michigan's auto makers in overseas sales, Romney vows that as president he would weaken fuel economy standards and tackle other obstacles. "You take off those burdens and let's show them how fast a Mustang will actually go," Romney told the Detroit Economic Club on Monday.

The Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor, whose father ran a Detroit car company and later served three terms as the state’s governor, came across in the final days as though he were running to succeed George Romney as Michigan's chief executive.

Romney says he will probably not last beyond the Feb. 5 heap of 21 GOP primaries if he does not win today’s Michigan vote. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are his chief rivals, according to the latest Michigan polls.

Perhaps Rudy Giuliani really has lost his mind. The former New York mayor and abortion-rights liberal showed up in an evangelical Florida church on Sunday with one of the state’s most ridiculed politicians.

“I can feel the spirit of God in this room,” Giuliani told 7,000 worshippers at El Rey Jesus, a Hispanic evangelical church in Miami. Just a few seats away from Giuliani -- close enough to be in the photos with him – was Katherine Harris, the former Florida secretary of state who played a pivotal role in the voting dispute that led to George W. Bush’s 2000 victory

Horrified Giuliani aides did their best to distance the campaign from Harris, whose weird antics cost her a Senate bid last year. They insisted that her presence was merely a coincidence, explaining that she was there at the church's invitation.

It was a strange moment, emblematic of one of the 2008 campaign’s most bizarre bids. Once considered the GOP’s runaway frontrunner, Giuliani chose to skip the first month of the race and pin his hopes for a comeback on Florida’s Jan. 29 primary.

While chaos in the Republican field might vindicate his unusual strategy, Giuliani is now struggling to be taken seriously.

Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams"
Monday (1/14) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST

While Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney grab headlines in a tense battle for Michigan’s presidential primary on Tuesday, folksy Mike Huckabee again sidles up to the microphones with pithy one-liners guaranteed to stir voters.

“Michigan helped save America,” Huckabee says on the stump, recalling the state’s crucial manufacturing role in World War II. “Now it's time that America helps save Michigan.”

What a perfect sentiment for a proud state that is facing one of its worst-ever economic slumps. But Huckabee is coming on strong in Michigan with more than one-liners. Despite investing few resources, the Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor has leveraged his surprise win on Jan. 4 in the Iowa caucuses to rally evangelical Christians who dominate the state's western regions.

Huckabee is also finding an audience in Michigan for his Southern-fried brand of economic populism, a championing of the little guy against corporate chiefs that irritates GOP leaders.

In a not-so-veiled reference to Romney's days as a corporate turnaround artist who downsized troubled companies, Huckabee often says, "I believe most Americans want their next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off." Romney accuses Huckabee of "channeling John Edwards," the resident populist in the Democratic race. 

If Huckabee sneaks past McCain or Romney for a second-place finish in Michigan – or wins in a stunner – he could roll over the field four days later in deeply conservative South Carolina and become the undisputed Republican frontrunner.

John McCain’s straight talk might not be what depressed Michigan voters want to hear. With perhaps the worst economy in the nation – certainly the highest unemployment – the state’s Republican primary on Tuesday looms as an economics exam for candidates.

"The old jobs are not coming back," McCain tells voters on the stump in Michigan. That is probably true, but the Arizona senator does not follow that buzz kill with anything very uplifting, other than some vague notions about more training programs to prepare workers for "new jobs."

Contrast McCain’s gloomy message with Mitt Romney’s sunny optimism, which he plans to underscore on Monday in a speech to the Detroit Economic Club detailing his plans to save the state’s downtrodden auto industry. And the Michigan native, who went on to become a wealthy businessman and Massachusetts governor, is hammering McCain for his Senate vote to impose new fuel economy standards on car companies.

Michigan appears to be shaping up as a showdown between McCain, who won last week’s New Hampshire primary, and Romney, who badly needs a win to keep going.

Now on CQ Politics

• 8 Questions and Answers About the Michigan Primary
• Republican Candidates Stump in Michigan
• Polltracker: Economic Issues Gaining Importance

While the more winnowed Democratic field is now going wholesale and nationwide, the chaotic Republican presidential race is still mired in the state-by-state retail campaigning seen in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Democratic feud between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama is set for a potentially decisive showdown on Feb.5, when more than 20 states award half of the delegates needed to win the nomination. That faceoff is inevitable no matter what happens in the upcoming round of tiny-state contests in Nevada and South Carolina.

But the Republican field has not yet narrowed to a one-on-one contest for delegates. As many as five hopefuls are still vying for the top berth. They are competing in two big states before Feb. 5 – Michigan on Tuesday and Florida on Jan. 29. And on Jan. 19, South Carolina is likely to play its traditional role as a winnower of the Republican race.

Democrats are bypassing Michigan and Florida at the behest of national party leaders who are punishing those states for leapfrogging the primary calendar. While Clinton and Obama will skirmish in Nevada and South Carolina, the Republicans are likely to provide the most fireworks for now.

Orlando -- If there is any luck at all for Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor and Republican White House hopeful is due for a comeback. Other onetime frontrunners in the presidential race – Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican John McCain – managed return engagements after dramatic falls from grace.

But the timing of Giuliani’s roller coaster ride works against him. Today’s news that top staffers will forgo salaries would have been a survivable setback months ago. Now that the voting has begun -- and Giuliani’s results look like the numbers for a second-tier candidate or worse – the pressure is on for a big win in Florida’s Jan. 29 primary.

Still, the GOP race is shaping up in a way that gives Giuliani’s Florida-or-bust strategy a fighting chance. The first two contests produced different winners: Mike Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire. A third or more could emerge in the next round of voting in Michigan on Tuesday and South Carolina on Jan. 19.

That will leave ten days of campaigning in Florida after the South Carolina primary. If Giuliani cannot win the Sunshine State his candidacy could go dark in the following week before Tsunami Tuesday, when more than 20 states vote on Feb. 5.

For all of the endless chatter about change in this presidential campaign, Ron Paul is the only candidate with a sizable following who would truly overhaul Washington. The Texas congressman’s libertarian message challenges nearly every plank of modern federal policy, from social spending to the war on drugs. Few government agencies, including the Internal Revenue Service, would be safe in a Paul administration.

But it was clear in the Republican presidential debate on Thursday that Paul’s political party wants nothing to do with him – other than to use him as the butt of jokes. When Paul again expressed his passionate opposition to U.S. military intervention abroad, GOP contender Mitt Romney fired off a particularly snarky barb, saying Paul had read “too many press releases by (Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad,” the Iranian president. 

Now on CQ Politics: Debate Bests and Mosts

Paul could get the last laugh if he eventually abandons his quest for the Republican nomination and positions his well-financed organization for a reprise of his 1988 bid as standard bearer of the Libertarian Party (which is set to choose a nominee in May). After all, the Republican Party is so far removed from its roots in pure conservatism that GOP leaders not only refuse to make room for Paul, but go out of their way to ridicule the anti-government maverick and his loyalists.

As a third party force, Paul would appeal to some Democratic anti-war voters but probably hurt Republicans the most by attracting don’t-tread-on-me economic conservatives. And then the GOP might not consider him such a joke.

What's worse than a broken ankle in a fiberglass cast? Watching a presidential debate every 10 days, that's what. But it's not like I've got anything else to do, so why not elevate the leg and endure another round of White House wannabees hammering away at each other.

See Comments for Trailmixers reacting to the Republican debate that aired tonight on the FOX News Channel.

AT STAKE: Who is the Republican frontrunner? Mike Huckabee won Iowa. John McCain won New Hampshire. With Michigan and South Carolina around the corner, Mitt Romney owns the silver medal, while Rudy Giuliani waits for Florida's Jan. 29 primary to finally affirm his once-solid status as national frontrunner. And don't forget Ron Paul and Fred Thompson -- Not yet contenders for first place, but always fun to watch.

The tedious debate over polling for the New Hampshire primary could finally end if the news media's phony finger pointing at pollsters would end. There is no crisis in polling. There is a crisis in how polls are reported.

In the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary, superficial reporting of survey data gave the impression that Democrat Barack Obama would win in a landslide. But inside those numbers pollsters had presented data that revealed the potential opening that eventually gave Hillary Rodham Clinton the victory. It was just too complicated for those who were so anxious to rave about how Obama was winning. 

To varying degrees, the pre-New Hampshire media polls showed large numbers of undecided or wavering voters – and even Obama’s lead in some cases was clearly inside the margin of error. Given how Obama got the last-minute breaks in Iowa, it was a fair assumption that he would do it again in New Hampshire. But over-eager reporting underplayed the wild cards that were so evident in pre-primary polling data.

Those in the news media who overstated these polls are now working overtime to blame the pollsters – and even the voters who answered the surveys. You would think that the pollsters would defend themselves. But many don’t speak up because they work for the media and are expected to play the scapegoat when things go wrong.

First, the reeling. And then the pivot. It does not take long for a politician as skilled as Democrat Barack Obama to regain his stride after a nasty punch.

Excuses for the Illinois senator’s surprising loss on Tuesday in New Hampshire range from the presidential primary's early timing (held during a college break in pro-Obama communities) to the amazingly balmy weather (which supposedly filled polling places with older women who favored his party rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton).

But perhaps the Obama camp’s most absurd explanation for his New Hampshire defeat is one that his aides avoid publicly making, even though unofficial surrogates show no qualms about doing so as they make the rounds of cable news shows.

As this spurious argument goes, pre-primary pollsters overstated Obama’s actual performance, somehow proving that secret racists lied to pollsters about supporting him. The truth is that the overwhelming majority of last-minute surveys showed no statistically significant difference between Obama’s polling numbers and what he did at the ballot box.

As a result, there was no drop-off in Obama’s support between what people told pollsters and what they actually did. The failed predictions of an Obama win appear to stem from higher-than-expected numbers of women and independents backing Clinton at the ballot box while staying on the fence with pollsters. 

More On This Topic 
MSNBC’s “Countdown with Keith Olbermann” (1/9)

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Craig On "Hardball Late Call"
Listen Here (MSNBC, 1/9)

 

In past presidential campaigns with even less grounds for doing so, political junkies have dared to dream of national party nominating conventions that actually matter. But the New Hampshire primary vote on Tuesday moved us closer to a summer of chaos.

Different candidates in both parties won Iowa and New Hampshire. Among Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama each bagged victories, while former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards still searches.

Thanks to the demise of winner-take-all primaries for Democrats, the party’s three top contenders could divvy up delegates all the way to the convention. Under the so-called proportional representation rules, candidates don’t have to win a state to gain some of its delegates.

Republican rules allow winner-take-all primaries but the divided nature of the party’s 2008 field is what potentially scrambles its convention. By Tsunami Tuesday, when 22 states are set to vote on Feb. 5, it is possible that three-to-five GOP candidates could claim primary or caucus victories.

If Tsunami Tuesday does not establish a presumed nominee in either party, look for a long struggle that just might make the 2008 conventions worthy of our dreams.

Wednesday (11/9):
Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

. . . and on "Hardball Special"
 MSNBC 11:00 PM EST

Last night it was Barack Obama's turn to experience the ill effects of buyer's remorse. The Democratic hopeful's surprise loss in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary paused the rush to his presidential bid that began last week with a stunning victory in Iowa. 

For some people, voting for president is sort of like buying a car. No matter how excited you are about your final choice, when it is time to sign the paperwork there is a moment of doubt. Is it the right model? Too pricey? Or perhaps, upon reflection, your old familiar car is not so bad after all.

Buyer’s remorse set in against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton a week ago in Iowa, due in part to voters growing tired of predictions that the New York senator was the presumed nominee. Clinton's Iowa defeat set the stage for a comeback and a reversal of roles with Obama. To New Hampshire voters there was something about  the Illinois senator that kept them from closing the sale.

On the Republican side, voters backed away from Mitt Romney in both states, denying him the first place slot that polls had once showed him in line to win. John McCain's decisive New Hampshire victory now makes him the next shiny thing in the GOP race. And the Artizona senator's next test drive will be in the automobile state -- Michigan on Jan. 15. 

The lesson for the 2008 frontrunners in both parties might be to embrace losing a race or two because above all you do not want to be seen as the inevitable nominee.

Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Listen Here
(RFD-TV/WABC-AM, 1/9)
A Mad Mustard Podcast

 

Just under half of the New Hampshire returns are in, but allow me a bit of speculation based upon little or no actual information (the pundit’s job): We are witnessing a new kind of triangulation at work in Republican John McCain's runaway victory and Democrat Barack Obama's lower-than-expected results.

My hunch is that in the final day or so of campaigning, Hillary Rodham Clinton's command decision to define Obama on her terms had the effect of driving independents to McCain. Non-partisan voters tend to be swayed by campaign attacks, backing away from both the candidate who is attacked and the one doing the attacking.

In this case, those independents had somewhere to go. McCain was there to reap the benefits of the Clinton-Obama feud.

Early indicators for Hillary Rodham Clinton’s post-New Hampshire strategy are emerging today. Watch for her surrogates – and perhaps the New York senator herself – to say that she will drop out of the race if she decisively loses to Democratic rival Barack Obama in the unprecedented mass of primaries on Feb. 5.

The thinking behind this move is to force Tsunami Tuesday voters to cast their ballots with the full knowledge that a vote for Obama will ensure that the Illinois senator will be the party nominee in November. Some Clinton aides are convinced that many Obama voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have been casting protest votes, that in some ways he is a theoretical choice.

The Clinton team's hope is that Feb. 5 voters will rethink backing Obama once they realize that he is much more than a theoretical possibility, that supporting him will put an end to Clinton’s candidacy.

Craig on MSNBC Tonight
Tuesday (1/8) 11:00 PM EST 

. . . and on "Imus in the Morning"
Wednesday (1/9) 6:30 AM EST
RFD-TV / WABC-AM

Many who are now saying that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton must take her leave from the presidential field also once said that Republican John McCain was finished.

It probably pays not to listen to those who say such things.

A year ago, Clinton and McCain started this race as frontrunners – and both ultimately suffered humiliation, partly because they believed their own hype and got blindsided. McCain’s juggernaut ran aground early on. The Arizona senator lost the money primary in the first quarter of the year and overnight became seen as a dead man walking.

Instead of heeding the calls to go away, McCain embraced the underdog role and turned himself into a viable contender for first place in today's New Hampshire primary.

Clinton’s crucible might be coming too late for a McCain-style recovery, but the New York senator could actually take solace in the fact that there’s a new frontrunner in town. And those who once called her inevitable are saying that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is unbeatable for the Democratic nomination.

It probably still pays not to listen to those who say such things.

From the White Mountains comes the first tally in today's New Hampshire primary ... and here at Trail Mix we are agents of change, so we lead with the lesser known Hart's Location (home of Crawford Notch) over traditional favorite Dixville Notch.

Hart's Location, New Hampshire

Democrats

• Obama: 9
• Clinton: 3
• Edwards: 1

Republicans

• McCain:6
• Huckabee: 5
• Paul: 4
• Romney: 1

Crawford Notch (in Hart's Location, NH) was named for Abel Crawford, an explorer and trail-builder in the early 19th century.

The cool thing about watching the struggle between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain for New Hampshire’s independent voters is how it offers a rough preview of the general election.

On Tuesday so-called undeclared voters in the Granite State get to choose whichever party’s primary they feel like joining. And the Obama-McCain competition for those votes could be the deciding factor for both parties in New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, the latest polls show a dead-even race between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton for the party’s registered voters. It’s the independents who are pushing Obama to his significant lead in those surveys. Among registered Republicans, Mitt Romney has an advantage over McCain. But again, it’s the independents who could make the difference, unless Obama grabs too many.

It might seem odd that a Democrat and a Republican, who are so far apart on most issues, would be fighting for the same voters. While many independents lean toward one party or the other, there really is a sizable enough universe of seriously non-partisan voters in New Hampshire to swing the outcome..

If either Obama or McCain (or both) ultimately run in the general election as party nominees, measuring their appeal tomorrow among New Hampshire independents will say a lot about their balloting power in November – when similar voters around the country will decide the outcome.

Craig on C-SPAN Monday (1/7) 9:15 PM EST
MSNBC Tuesday (1/8) 11:30 PM - 1:00 AM EST

 

This Just In: New Hampshire Trailspotter Kathy on last night's Obama rally and Clinton's crowd-building robocalls to Boston!

Watching Republican presidential contenders wrestle with Obama-mania is almost as remarkable as observing the commotion on the other side, where Illinois senator Barack Obama is turning the Democratic race upside down.

Things are just as topsy-turvy in the GOP field. Like much of the political world, Republican hopefuls had assumed that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. President George W. Bush and his political guru, Karl Rove, even went on the record with that prediction. 

But in Republican debates over the weekend, Obama replaced Clinton as the preferred punching bag and presumed foe. GOP candidates are now competing to impress party voters with how effectively they could paint Obama as a naïve liberal unworthy of mainstream support.

“Senator Obama has adopted the position of every liberal interest group in this country, as best I can tell,” former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson said during the GOP debate on Jan. 5 in New Hampshire. “He's talking in generalities right now. As time goes on, I think he'll have to be more definitive.”

The Obama effect on Republicans is profound:

• Rudy Giuliani is floundering without Clinton as the bogey woman he once used so effectively for igniting party audiences, but the former New York mayor is making the transition to targeting Obama. "He's embraced change, but change is a concept. He really doesn't have the experience, either from the national security point of view or even from just the executive point of view."
• Mike Huckabee cites many ideological and policy differences with Obama, but is unique among his party rivals in also offering praise. The former Arkansas governor says Obama is "a likable person who has excited people about wanting to vote."
• Arizona Sen. John McCain bragged on Sunday that he could easily beat the newcomer. 
• Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney – who has in the past mixed up Obama’s name with Al Qaeda mastermind Osama bin Laden -- is stepping up his own rhetoric of change, echoing the potential Democratic nominee’s tirades against Washington insiders.

Craig on C-SPAN Monday (1/7) 8-9 PM EST
MSNBC Tuesday (1/8) 11:30 PM EST

 

ORLANDO -- While Iowa and New Hampshire finish up their time in the spotlight, Florida voters are already casting ballots for their Jan. 29 primary – which looms as a major showdown in both parties despite efforts to undermine it.

Thanks to early absentee voting, it looks like Rudy Giuliani has already collected more votes in Florida than all of the votes combined for the entire GOP field in last week’s Iowa caucuses. The former New York mayor’s Florida campaign team says it received more than 150,000 absentee ballot requests from party voters. That exceeds the entire turnout of 116,000 voters on the GOP side in Iowa.

The Florida GOP campaign is gaining momentum on television. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is now running immigration-focused advertisements in response to Giuliani’s statewide saturation of spots spotlighting his role after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on New York City.

Clinton’s Sunshine State Firewall

On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton might end up trying to duplicate the Giuliani strategy of making Florida a firewall to compensate for losses in small, early-voting states. The New York senator has long maintained double-digit leads in Florida, which will vote less than a week before the massive collection of primaries on Feb. 5.

Clinton and the other Democratic contenders had agreed to a ban on campaigning in Florida to please Iowa and New Hampshire activists who did not want to compete for attention with the nation’s biggest swing state. Might that change once the early states are out of the way?

Florida could still seat full delegations to the national conventions for both parties if the primary winners here ultimately win their party nods and use their power to reverse rulings that restrict the state’s voting power at the conventions. National Republican leaders severly cut the size of the state’s delegation to punish Florida for leapfrogging the calendar. Democrats are refusing to seat Florida’s entire delegation.

THIS JUST IN: New Hampshire Trail Spotter Bowmanc reviews today's Clinton Rally (and Saturday's Obama Rally)

New Hampshire voters attending last night's four-hour marathon of Democrats and Republicans debating at St. Anselm College in Manchester surely collected more than enough change to feed their parking meters. Indeed, the losing candidates in this "agent of change" race could enjoy bright futures as highway toll booth collectors.

"I want to make change, but I've already made change. I will continue to make change."

         -- New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 
               (Democratic debate, 1/5/08)

Of course, pocket change is not what the White House contenders were so earnestly offering. No, we’re talking real CHANGE. You know, CHANGE! Pick the right candidate and you’re going to get CHANGE.

Or, pick anyone. George W. Bush cannot run again. No matter what happens, we will CHANGE presidents next year.

The exasperated debate moderator, Charles Gibson of ABC News, finally had enough, aptly observing that running for office on a theme of change is not exactly a new idea in American politics.

This stuff really is empty rhetoric, fueling campaigns in much the same way that empty calories work in the human body -- supplying a quick rush of energy that is devoid of lasting nutritional value (unless it comes with a few quarters for the parking meter).

CQ Politics Debate Mosts and Bests
Democrats / Republicans

 

Trail Less Traveled:
Debates Pack More Punch Than Football

It could not have been a worse time for me to be sidelined by a broken ankle (got a new cast yesterday; plates and screws look scary on the x-ray but doc says i'm on the mend, could be off crutches for Tsunami Tuesday). BUT the good news is that I haven't smoked one cigarette since last week's surgery AND our own TRAIL SPOTTERS are saving the day with live action-state reports in the comment sections.

This just in from our New Hampshire Trail Spotters: 

• Bowmanc on last night's standing-room-only McCain event and today's Obama rally (look for his Clinton coverage on Sunday -- see Comments for updates).
• Claire gives us the scoop on a curiously-timed Clinton phone poll.
• Kathy sees a Clinton blind spot in heavily Democratic Cheshire Count and receives direct mail attacking Obama on abortion choice.
• RebelliousRenee hangs up on push poll.
  

Also, a few back notes from our intrepid Iowa Trail Spotters:

• Zoey reports on the surprising Dodd-Biden caucus bust and Obama's Ace organizer 
• Spike examines Clinton's sub-par caucus organizing and IA-NH transportation stats

Coming soon: South Carolina Trail Spotters Sturgeone and Redst3 (formerly Aging Hipster). Corey in Michigan snags an endorsement. Anyone else? Identify yourself in Comments within.

Plus my own dispatches advancing Florida's Jan.29 primary, set to roil the GOP race and possibly the Democratic side despite a campaign ban (Hint: The eventual nominee will have the power to seat the delegation). Rudy Giuliani has been here twice in the last two weeks and his 9/11 TV ad is in heavy rotation. 

We welcome Trail Spotters in early-voting states who see candidates in their home states, track ads via TV/Radio/Direct Mail, or have other relevant news: Simply login to comments on the latest posting and report your findings.

How is it that two of the most experienced presidential candidates on international affairs could not even survive the first vote of the 2008 campaign? Just hours after Iowa Democrats all but ignored Delaware’s Joe Biden and Connecticut’s Chris Dodd the two veteran senators pulled out of the race.

Only Arizona Sen. John McCain, a Republican contender, could equal Biden and Dodd in a tally of their decades of experience in foreign policy – a background that ought to mean something in a war against terror. And McCain could soon be a goner if he doesn’t stage an upset in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

Watching C-SPAN’s mesmerizing live broadcast of an Iowa precinct caucus on Thursday night, it was truly sad to see shell-shocked Biden and Dodd supporters get hustled by the big-brand candidate teams urging them to switch sides once it was clear that their ranks were not large enough to even be counted.

Now that both Democrats are gone from the campaign, it sure would be more comforting if the combined worldly expertise of the remaining candidates at least matched theirs.

A voter revolt in both parties turned Iowa’s presidential nominating caucuses on Thursday into a stunning repudiation of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

Even within their own party, the president and vice president seem to have provoked such yearning for change that a Republican insurgent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, stormed the gates and now has Republican elders in a panic. And it should not be overlooked that a libertarian anti-war maverick, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, outpolled the GOP’s supposed frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani.

The Democratic left is so eager for a complete break with the past that its protest vehicle, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, overwhelmed national frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton and her aim to move the party to the political center.

For seven years (and even going back to their contested election in 2000), Bush and Cheney have behaved like a military junta that views democracy as something to work around. They rolled over anyone who got in their way, especially fellow Republicans who dared to criticize. But to the increasingly furious populace, politicians in Washington -- even some who fought back -- are now seen as part of the problem because they failed to stop the Bush-Cheney junta. 

Lucky for Bush and Cheney, they were safely out of the way last night when Iowa voters grabbed their pitch forks and went looking for "change."

Which do you want first, Rudy? The good news or the bad news.

OK, here is the good news for Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani: Party rival Mike Huckabee won Iowa last night. And the bad news: Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton lost.

More about Rudy's good news: Campaigning in Florida on Thursday, instead of joining the rest of the political world in Iowa, makes more sense for Giuliani now that Huckabee's Iowa upset of Mitt Romney has increased the odds of a divided GOP field in the small, early-voting states. It means that the former New York mayor’s plan to wait for big states like Florida could work.

More about Rudy's bad news: Giuliani's once-solid standing as national frontrunner was due in part to how well he had persuaded Republicans that he would be best suited to take on Clinton. It is probably no accident that he began losing steam in November at about the same time that Clinton’s aura of inevitability disappeared.

Giuliani’s best-case scenario for getting his momentum back would be for John McCain to win New Hampshire on Jan. 8, and for Clinton to figure out how to stop Iowa’s Democratic winner, Barack Obama, in time for the Florida primary on Jan. 29.

Click into comments for live Iowa reports
from our own Trail Spotters:

-- Spike reports from Urbandale Precinct 5
    (run by our own reelected Zoey): 
       Obama leads / Horsetrading / Final Count 
-- IAgirlinDC surveys the yard sign race

It would be sad and wrong for anyone to drop out of the presidential campaign – until Tuesday.

A poor showing in the Iowa caucuses should not push anyone to the sidelines. That should come after next week’s New Hampshire primary, if Iowa’s biggest losers cannot stage a credible comeback on Jan. 8 in the Granite State.

As a pair, Iowa and New Hampshire serve as handy screening committees for the rest of the county. Iowa’s laborious caucus system severely tests a campaign’s organizational skill among hardcore party activists, while New Hampshire’s historic primary tests popular appeal to a broader cross-section of voters.

Demographically speaking, both states are about as representative of the entire nation as any other gathering of 95 percent white Protestants. But they try to stay open-minded, and largely succeed in doing so.

Here’s hoping that the news media and the rest of the country can stay open minded about the presidential field for at least five more days.

What does it take for an undecided Iowa voter TO DECIDE? A year of sizing up candidates in their living rooms (literally, in many cases) apparently is not enough -- if polls are correct in showing that more than a third of the voters in both parties will walk into the caucuses tonight either undecided or prone to change their minds at the last minute.

The main difference between the parties seems to be that Democrats are so content with their choices that they might prefer “all of the above.” But unhappy Republicans might pick “none of the above.”

If so many of the most pampered voters in the history of democracy still cannot make up their minds, perhaps they should stay home and eat pork (or beef?).

Can you imagine suffering behind these people at the grocery check-out counter? How long would it take for them to choose paper or plastic? We’re waiting . . .

Ah, the monster that Oprah Winfrey created.

Now that the queen of talk television has stepped over the divide between entertainment and politics, endorsing Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama, apparently it is cool for other TV talk stars to give candidates high-profile exposure on the eve of the first voting.

On Wednesday night, Republican hopeful Mike Huckabee got a prize gig on NBC’s “Tonight Show” with Jay Leno, while Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton landed a cameo on CBS’ “Late Night” with David Letterman.

Such appearances have become traditional in our politics -- and other candidates have appeared on both shows in this campaign. But is it too fussy to say that it’s out of line to give politicians such a leg up on the night before the campaign’s first voting test in today’s Iowa nominating caucuses?

Had Oprah not lowered the bar for show hosts who are tempted to use their status to influence an election, Leno and Letterman might be getting a lot of flak for playing favorites on such a crucial night. It appears that the rules are different now that the separation between Oprah and State has been erased.

In the closing hours of the campaign for tomorrow’s presidential nominating caucuses in Iowa, Mitt Romney found a clever way to indirectly slam a Republican rival with a dig at Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Romney referred to former President Bill Clinton’s adultery in what could be a preview of how he will target GOP hopeful Rudy Giuliani, whose messy personal life is bound to become a factor in the race.

The former Massachusetts governor told reporters on Wednesday that he and his wife, Ann, would “try and represent ourselves and our nation well ... [because] there have been failures in the past in the White House -- if you go back to the Clinton years and recognize that -- that I think had an enormous impact on the culture of our country.”

Romney said, “We'll do our very best, our whole family will, to, well, if we can't be perfect, we'll do our best to uphold and be a good example for the kinds of values I think people expect from our leaders.”

Although Romney mentioned only Clinton by name, you could easily imagine Giuliani's adulterous affair while New York mayor coming up if the campaign eventually narrows to a direct contest against Romney. For now, Giuliani is taking a pass on the early-voting states, hoping for a comeback in big states such as Florida, which votes on Jan. 29.

While Romney would probably avoid directly criticizing Giuliani’s personal life, he will surely not miss opportunities for veiled references such as those he tried out on Wednesday in Iowa.

Craig on "Imus in the Morning"
Listen Here (clip by Mad Mustard)
(RFD-TV / WABC-AM, 1/2)

The case of Mike Huckabee’s dog-that-didn’t-bite television advertisement is not yet closed.

There was a little something about Mitt Romney’s abortion record tucked inside Huckabee's canceled attack ad that is sure to aggravate Iowa's social conservatives as they evaluate the two White House hopefuls for Thursday's GOP presidential nominating caucuses.

At one point in the Huckabee spot, which the former Arkansas governor pulled at the last minute on Monday in a sudden fit of high-mindedness, an ominous-sounding narrator says, “Romney's government-mandated health plan provided a $50 co-pay for abortion.”

For some time the pro-life community has complained about this feature of the health plan enacted in Massachusetts while Romney was governor. They argue that it amounted to taxpayer-funded abortions – an evil notion to social conservatives (and even to some moderates).

Until now, Fred Thompson had been the only GOP hopeful who even tried to take Romney to task for the abortion co-pay provision in the Massachusetts health plan -- and he only did so in emails. Huckabee, who showed the anti-Romney ad to reporters before axing it, has now managed to spotlight the issue in a way that Romney had so far avoided.

While the news media competes for dubs of the ad (thus enhancing its mystique), bootleg copies and web-based versions are making the rounds among evangelical activists in Iowa. Whether an intended consequence or not, this all adds up to a below-the-radar assault that Romney might find difficult to quickly counter.

Among independent voters and the national media, John McCain falls in and out of favor more often than paisley neckties (are they in or out these days?).

And as of this afternoon's release of the latest New Hampshire poll, the onetime Republican presidential frontrunner is apparently back on top.

McCain is even rising in Iowa, which he has mostly ignored. A byproduct of McCain bypassing the Hawkeye State is how the expectations police now opine that winning third place in Iowa would make him a perceived winner.

Still, nothing lasts forever when it comes to McCain. Any fever chart showing the Arizona senator’s approval rating over the years would look like the trajectory of a runaway roller coaster.

McCain is back in favor largely because the Iraq War is off the front burner, sidelining critics of his vehement support for the Bush administration’s hard line. If that changes, McCain would again lose his coolness.

Follow the Numbers on CQ's PollTracker

What is it about the word “change” that rallies so many voters to believe just about anything? Whether changing our clothes or our politics, there is always hope that different is better, that we are just one makeover away from a perfect life.

For the next 48 hours in Iowa, voters are going to hear the word “change” so often that you’d think it would finally lose its currency. You’d think that some exasperated voter would get fed up and blurt out, “Keep the Change!”

Much has been made of “experience” as the opposite of change, as if the two concepts cannot co-exist. But my guess is that, no matter what happens in Iowa, both party nominations will ultimately go to those who best demonstrate the experience to make change.

If Iowans show up at the Democratic presidential nominating caucuses on Thursday and do anything like what today’s Des Moines Register survey suggests could happen, then Barack Obama might not be mortal.

The Illinois senator, according to the historically accurate newspaper poll, is attracting unprecedented numbers of first-time caucus participants and independents who are driving him to the top of the pack in the Register’s findings. Whether those voters actually invest the time and effort it takes to caucus for Obama in Iowa’s bizarre process will test the real drawing power of this political super nova.

If Obama wins Iowa by harnessing a dramatic influx of new and non-partisan voters, his bid would instantly be deemed a force of nature, more of a movement than a campaign – and an electable one at that.

More Iowa Polls: Democrats / Republicans

Here is a New Year’s resolution for presidential candidates: Stop whining about negative campaigning and go for it. You know you want to hammer the daylights out of your opponents, so quit pretending you’re above it all and let the mud fly.

Mike Huckabee’s peek-a-boo press conference on Monday was beyond the pale. The Republican contender called in reporters to unveil an attack ad against rival Mitt Romney, who has been bashing Huckabee this week in an Iowa television spot. But Huckabee then had second thoughts and pulled the ad moments before his Des Moines press conference began, essentially saying that he is too pure to stoop to such things.

Despite piously claiming the high ground, Huckabee still showed the spot to the assembled media -- probably hoping that reporters will do the dirty work for him by publicizing the ad’s message.

Let’s get over the skittishness about so-called negative campaigning. Factual attacks based upon legitimate issues are not only acceptable, but actually help voters make informed choices. Bring it on.