Tonight at 8:00 PM EST on CNN meet The Bickersons of the Democratic Party. The Bickersons was a radio comedy sketch series that began in 1946 on NBC with Don Ameche and Frances Langford. Wikipedia says: “The show's married protagonists spent nearly all their time together in relentless verbal war, and many people believed that the show's sourly cynical take on the institution of marriage was detrimental to the nation's post-World War II health."

Join us now in Comments for live blogging of the showdown between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

While we wait for the festivities to begin, here’s some vintage dialogue from The Bickersons program:

"Blanche: You used to be so considerate. Since you got married to me you haven't got any sympathy at all.
John: I have, too. I've got everybody's sympathy.
Blanche: Believe me, there's better fish in the ocean than the one I caught.
John: There's better bait, too."

Craig on “Live with Dan Abrams”
Thursday (1/31) MSNBC 9:30 PM EST

 

. . . and on "Imus in the Morning"
Friday (2/1) RFD-TV/WABC-AM 6:29 AM EST

 

A sampling of caption submissions from comments to our morning post . . .

• "You think this is something? Hell, I once had the entire country by the tail." -- Patsi
• "He saw his shadow...six more weeks of vote counting." -- Katherine Graham Cracker
• "Mommy's got plans for you!" -- Corey
• “Chad (hanging) & Katherine Harris.” -- blueINdallas
• “Which twin is the turkey?” -- jamie
• "What do you think is prettier - this possum, my radaint smile, or my magnificent breasts (which for about 5 grand you can have, too)?" -- pogo
• “Katherine Harris finally defeats someone!” -- Mike in No. VA
• “One is a frightening, furry, furtive nocturnal animal that plays dead when faced with dangerous opposition. The other is a possum.” -- WACPAC

It was Dr. Strangelove versus Eddie Haskell at the Ronald Reagan library on Wednesday.

There was a time, like maybe Monday afternoon, when I thought Mitt Romney might be Ward Cleaver, the button-downed Dad whose melodious platitudes could hypnotize a nation.

But no, by last night at the California debate table, Romney instead came across as the conniving Eddie, flashing an occasional dark-side glare at neighborhood rivals while sitting up dutifully straight and innocently smiling for Republican Den Mother Nancy Reagan in the front row.

Enter John “Strangelove” McCain, who can launch battle ships with a single smirk. About 45 minutes into a debate that had sputtered into a ditch of hazy economic statistics, the Arizona senator woke up and concluded that it was time for Romney to perish.

Never mind that McCain distorts his prey's words to do the job. The ensuing dust-up produced a devastating moment (and nobody likes Romney anyway). After McCain had read aloud a typically vague Romney statement, the former Massachusetts governor offered this remarkable response to his own quote: "What does that mean?"

That's right, what had been widely suspected turns out to be true: Romney really doesn't know what he is talking about. Cue the mushroom cloud. Dr. Strangelove has just rid the neighborhood of a bully.

Today's Caption Contest

And in a final tribute to the earliest-ever Florida Primary, which McCain won on Tuesday in what could be remembered as the GOP’s king-maker contest, please indulge this posting of a photo depicting Katherine Harris holding a possum by its tail. As some of you might know, I collect goofy photos of my home state's former secretary.

Your suggested captions are welcome in Comments.

In tonight's Republican debate you can tell that John McCain learned his lesson about the pitfalls of being a frontrunner. Having been there and lost that in the past, the Arizona senator is not about to sit on his newly-minted lead in the GOP presidential race.

McCain landed hit after hit on rival Mitt Romney, at one point delivering one of the best roundhouse punches I've ever seen in a debate. In a line that powerfully used his strength -- military experience -- to undercut Romney's strength -- business experience, McCain said, " I did it out of patriotism, not for profit.."

Not surprisingly, Romney knew that any pithy comeback could have risked belittling McCain's prisoner-of-war experience -- so he let the moment pass.

So long, Rudy and John. There are many reasons why Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards were forced to step aside today. But an overriding cause comes to mind in both cases: Each were out of sync with their own party.

Giuliani’s moderate-to-liberal social views doomed the former New York mayor from the start. Social conservatives seem willing to accept some compromise in a 2008 nominee but not as much as he represents.

Edwards, as a white man, was not destined to prevail in a year when Democrats are so excited about breaking new ground with a woman or an African-American. But if he wants it, the former North Carolina senator might again run as No. Two.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Wednesday (1/30) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

Of all the candidates in either political party, only John McCain had a good night in the Florida presidential primary. The Arizona senator won a solid victory over Mitt Romney on Tuesday, proving to doubters that he really is a Republican -- even in a race where only party members could vote.

Rudy Giuliani is the biggest loser on the GOP side, quitting the campaign to endorse McCain. And Mike Huckabee lives for another day, but on life support.

For someone who ran away with the vote, Hillary Rodham Clinton faced a tough time getting the news media to seriously report a win that does not immediately translate into Democratic convention delegates. Florida must still wage a bruising battle for its voting rights.

According to the overall vote totals, Barack Obama did not get a natural bump from his recent South Carolina win or the Kennedy family endorsement – although his camp will surely tout exit polls that suggest a surge among last-minute votersl. But to do that, Obama supporters will have to say Florida matters -- and so far they have said it does not.

Harry Truman’s great advice to “get a dog” if you want a friend in Washington never gets old – and  it’s a thought that must occur to Rudy Giuliani’s campaign team after trying to do something nice for the media.

The Republican hopeful autographed baseballs as a gift for his traveling press corps on the eve of today’s Florida primary. And what did the former New York mayor get from reporters for his touching gesture? They turned on him, saying it shows that he is finished.

Even one of Giuliani’s hometown newspapers, the New York Post, interpreted the gift as “signaling that his daily interactions with the media were coming to an end.”

Let that be a lesson for politicians in their relations with the media: Never offer your hand to the dog that bites you.

ORLANDO – John McCain’s erratic journey in presidential politics begins anew today in Florida’s presidential primary.

Even if the Arizona senator does not win, he can perform well enough to leverage his national fame next week on Super Duper Tuesday.

Florida is uncharted territory for McCain. So far, both of his 2008 victories evoked dramatic turning points from his first run in 2000. New Hampshire, as it did eight years ago, brought his candidacy to life. Winning South Carolina's nod last week made up for a sour loss in 2000 to George W. Bush.

But McCain arrived in Florida with little presidential campaigning history in a state that was not in the mix for his last race. A big win here would almost guarantee the gold for him. It would prove that he can win a closed primary where only party members can play, giving pause to those who say he is not a real Republican.

Losing to Mitt Romney would be a bitter defeat for McCain. The wealthy, well-born former Massachusetts governor is so Bush-like, giving the appearance of another legacy nominee who could stand in McCain's way.

While on paper it would seem that Romney’s tailored looks and outside-Washington business acumen are closer to what Florida Republicans prefer, McCain has been on the national stage a long time and, despite misgivings among conservatives, he is poised to win enough support to keep on going.

More Florida Trail Mix
Florida Primary Scene Setter

The Republicans

• Bush Talk Boosts Romney?  Post-Bushie Appeal
• Romney is No Joke: The Man To Beat 
• Romney Gets a Pass to the Top: A Debate Score 
• McCain's Humility Offensive: Conservatives Balk 
• McCain's Florida Bid Looks Cloudy: A Rough Start

The Democrats

• Florida to Test Kennedy Magic: Bump Watch 
• Bowling for Florida: Clinton and Obama Sneak Around
• On to Florida: Gaming The Nation's Biggest Swing State
• Clinton Embraces Outlaw States: Credentials Fight Looms 
• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races: Super Tuesday Preview

 

Craig on MSNBC Tuesday (1/29) All Times EST
“Morning Joe” -- 6:30 AM and 10:00 AM
“Hardball with Chris Matthews” -- 5:00 / 7:00 PM
"Decision '08," The Florida Primary -- 7:00 to 10:00 PM 

.  

ORLANDO -- Aside from being reminded that he still exists, watching George W. Bush give his final State of the Union address makes me think about its impact on the Florida Primary. (Yes, I know, two million citizens voting tomorrow in my home state is a bit of an obsession for me.)

Bush on my television makes me consider just what a profound choice that Florida Republicans must make in deciding whether to anoint John McCain or Mitt Romney as the party’s next frontrunner for the nomination.

Choosing McCain as the Republican nominee would make it more difficult for the party to distance itself from an unpopular president. As a relentless supporter of the war in Iraq, the Arizona senator is inevitably tied to an issue that could imperil Republicans in the general election.

Romney offers a chance to move Republicans away from being seen as the party of Bush. The former Massachusetts governor is not shy about keeping his distance from the president. He often talks about restoring the GOP as the party of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush -- pointedly excluding the current president from that list. 

Romney’s stronger case for leading a post-Bush party might just come to mind as Florida Republicans watch the president as they think about going to the polls tomorrow.

Craig on State of the Union Post-Game
MSNBC with Host David Shuster
Tuesday (1/29) 12:00 AM Midnight EST

 

 . . . and on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Tuesday (1/29) 6:30 AM EST

 

. . . and on MSNBC "Florida Primary"
Tuesday (1/29) 9:00 AM EST

 

It is no accident that Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts endorsed Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama today -- the day before the Florida primary.

The Obama camp has not been able to improve his poll standing in Florida, despite a week-long run of television advertisements in the state and extensive news coverage of his South Carolina victory over the weekend.

Kennedy’s endorsement is clearly aimed at slowing down Hillary Rodham Clinton’s momentum in Tuesday’s Florida primary -- or, if the Massachusetts Democrat’s backing for Obama does not trim Clinton’s lead, the hope is that at least it will undercut tomorrow’s news coverage of the primary.

While agreeing to skip direct campaigning in Florida as a result of a party flap over the primary calendar, the Clinton and Obama forces have run underground efforts that are boosting early voting and absentee ballots to record levels. Clinton expects a wide lead in Tuesday’s balloting to give her a boost toward next week’s collection of 22 primaries and caucuses.

If Kennedy’s endorsement means anything, its first test comes tomorrow in Florida.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Monday (1/28) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

. . . and on State of the Union Post-Game
MSNBC with Host David Shuster
Tuesday (1/29) 12:00 AM Midnight EST

 . . . and on MSNBC "Morning Joe"
Tuesday (1/29) 6:30 AM EST

 

ORLANDO -- Florida Republicans are set to anoint the party’s next national frontrunner in Tuesday’s presidential primary, while Democrats could prove whether or not Barack Obama gets a natural bump from his South Carolina victory over the weekend.

State officials are stunned by record levels of early voting in both parties. More than 350,000 Democrats and 400,000 Republicans have already voted by mail or in person -- that is almost four times as many Democrats as in the 2004 presidential primary, and a two-fold increase in GOP activity.

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney owns the ground game and the television air war against John McCain, who outgunned the field in last-minute party endorsements, including Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez. In a risky gamble, Rudy Giuliani stakes his entire presidential bid on Florida, while Mike Huckabee all but takes a pass on the huge expense of competing for the nation’s fourth-largest state. 

Latest Florida Polls:
CQ Politics Polltracker

Hillary Rodham Clinton, eager for some good news after her South Carolina defeat, is the only Democrat taking Florida seriously, promising a convention fight to seat the state's nominating delegates this summer. Last year, the candidates agreed to a campaign ban after Florida insisted on leapfrogging the primary calendar, provoking the Democratic National Committee to strip the state of its convention voting rights.

Still, even a beauty contest that awards no delegates could provide some meaning in the Democratic race. Next week, so many states vote on Super Duper Tuesday that candidates have had little time to effectively campaign for them.

What Florida’s expected pool of one million “untouched” Democratic voters decide in Tuesday's primary will offer a rough preview of what similarly situated voters decide a week later in 22 states throughout the country on Feb. 5.

More Florida Trail Mix

The Republicans

• Romney is No Joke: The Man To Beat 
• Romney Gets a Pass to the Top: A Debate Score 
• McCain's Humility Offensive: Conservatives Balk 
• McCain's Florida Bid Looks Cloudy: A Rough Start

The Democrats

• Bowling for Florida: Clinton and Obama Sneak Around
• On to Florida: Gaming The Nation's Biggest Swing State
• Clinton Embraces Outlaw States: Credentials Fight Looms 
• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races: Super Tuesday Preview

Did Democratic whiners just get Hillary Rodham Clinton’s answer to complaints about her hard-nosed campaign style?

“I am a gutterball bowler,” the New York senator said tonight in Florida, according to a Miami Herald blogger. The reporter could not ascertain the actual context of Clinton’s remark to a well-wisher at a bowling alley, the Lucky Strike Lanes on Miami Beach.

Florida? That’s right, Clinton is in the state that Democrats are supposedly ignoring for its primary on Tuesday. She’s exploiting a loophole in the campaign ban that allows fundraising -- but still pseudo-campaigning with the occasional photo opportunity on this final weekend before an expected one million Democrats go to the polls.

Clinton’s main rival, Barack Obama, can’t complain. He is running television commercials on cable news networks that reach six million Florida homes, but claims no violation of the rules on the grounds that the cable companies could not delete Florida from his nationwide buy.

Here is my transcript of the Obama ad seen on Florida cable outlets for the past week:

"BARACK OBAMA: I’m Barack Obama and I approve this message.

OBAMA (2004 Democratic National Convention): We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes.

Announcer: After college and law school, Barack Obama could have cashed in. Instead he fought for change. Working to rebuild an area torn apart by plant closings.

HARVARD LAW PROFESSOR LAURENCE TRIBE: It was inspiring, absolutely inspiring to see someone as brilliant as Barack Obama… take all of the talent and devote it to… making people’s lives better.

Announcer: In Illinois he brought Republicans and Democrats together. Cutting taxes for workers and winning healthcare for children.

ILLINOIS STATE SENATOR KIRK DILLARD: Senator Obama worked on some of the deepest issues we had and he was successful in a bipartisan way.

Announcer: And in the U.S. Senate, he’s led on issues from arms control to landmark ethics reform.

U.S. SENATOR CLAIRE McCASKILL: It was hard to get that ethics bill passed. This is a man who knows how to get things done. He understands that we’ve to move forward with a different kind of politics.

OBAMA: There is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America."

More Trail Mix: Democrats in Florida

• On to Florida: Gaming The Nation's Biggest Swing State
• Clinton Embraces Outlaw States: Democratic Credentials Fight
• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races: Super Tuesday Preview 

Talk about killing with kindness. Supporters of Barack Obama should be wary of the news media’s feverish gushing for the Democratic White House hopeful.

For starters, it was media romanticism – not Hillary Rodham Clinton’s hardball campaigning – that made Obama the “black candidate.” This happens, albeit unwittingly, every time a journalist waxes poetic about the historic step forward of seeing an African-American in a viable run for the presidency. (And yet, when Bill Clinton talks about Obama’s appeal to black voters, it is decried as "injecting race.")

Obama also runs the risk of a backlash against the media being seen as force feeding him to Democratic primary voters.

In South Carolina, the anti-Clinton media frenzy might have suppressed Obama’s white vote as much as any other possible cause – although many appeared to move toward John Edwards instead of Clinton. A similar backlash against media overkill probably contributed to Obama’s last-minute loss to Clinton in New Hampshire.

The Washington press club’s love affair with Obama allows many of a certain generation to indulge the fantasy of returning to their youth as starry-eyed believers in John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy. Hence, the voluble response to Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement in today’s New York Times and the trembling expectations of a similar move by Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Still, Obama could be excused for welcoming media group think that has gone stark raving mad for his candidacy. But in the long run he might be well advised to dismiss the hype and build a relationship with voters that remains independent of what fickle journalists say.

The baseless narrative that Bill Clinton is race baiting his wife’s way to the White House took another turn on Saturday with the accusation that somehow the former president is not allowed to point out the voting history of a key state.

Responding to reports that Barack Obama would win the South Carolina primary on Saturday, Clinton noted that Jesse Jackson won the state in 1984 and 1988. Cue the woe-is-us cries of neo-racism, hammering Clinton for stating a historical fact (though he did not mention that Jackson, a South Carolina native, won lower-turnout caucuses).  

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign would not be out of bounds in noting that her African-American rival won South Carolina's majority black primary electorate. And Pres. Clinton had every right to observe that black presidential candidates tend to do quite well on the state’s Democratic nomination ballots.

Obama on Offense

The Obama camp was smart to gin up any plausible rationale for sidelining or ridiculing the former president. For the most part, he is an asset for his wife, the New York senator. 

It was certainly brilliant for Obama’s team to enlist the aid of the news media in stirring up racial resentment against the Clintons – going back to New Hampshire when reporters and pundits promoted the bogus notion that Obama lost the state because of racism. That still unproven charge had to help Obama’s forces get the attention of African-American voters in South Carolina.

But it was sad to see so many in the news media become tools for one campaign’s agenda.

ORLANDO -- If Barack Obama won lasting momentum with his Democratic primary victory tonight in South Carolina, the first test comes in Florida on Tuesday.

While officially unofficial due to a party spat over the primary calendar, Florida’s balloting is expected to draw as many as one million Democrats to the polls. If the news of Obama’s South Carolina win holds any sway over later states, surely the Florida primary results -- just three days away -- will show a boost for the Illinois senator.

If Obama does get a South Carolina bump in Florida, Hillary Rodham Clinton might regret trying to put the state back on the political map. The New York senator and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, both promoted the upcoming Florida vote in their reactions to tonight's South Carolina results.

If South Carolina has no effect on Florida this Tuesday, it seems unlikely to make much of a difference a week later on Super Duper Tuesday.

More Trail Mix 

• Florida to Forecast Both Party Races
• Party Feud Risks Shotgun Marriage

I had my say this morning on MSNBC, so I’ll let NewsBusters’ Mark Finkelstein lead off this afternoon’s thread – Craig

Now on NewsBusters: “Count Craig Crawford as a dissenting voice in the media storm blaming the Clintons for the injection of race into the Dem primaries. The Congressional Quarterly columnist and MSNBC political analyst offered his unconventional wisdom on a special Saturday edition of Morning Joe today. We can debate Crawford's analysis, but credit him for bucking the avalanche of conventional wisdom. I'd say he raises good questions about the media's role in raising race as an issue in this campaign.” Click Here for Video.

And this from the folks at Media Matters (2:35 PM)
Craig Crawford: "The evidence-free bias against the Clintons in the media borders on mental illness." 
Click Here for Story and Video 

From Buddy's Bemusings (4:10 PM): "Well, you could have stuffed our goose and fried it in fat. . . . We were struck by Crawford's determination to stick to his opinion, even though he was outvoted 2 to 1, or maybe even 3 to 1, in the debate." Click Here for Full Blog 

This topic is now open for comment 
on the Morning Joe Message Board

ORLANDO -- So much for the Democratic National Committee trying to pretend that Florida and Michigan do not exist. Hillary Rodham Clinton upped the ante on Friday for an escalating fight over seating delegates from renegade states to the party’s national nominating convention.

"I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan," Clinton said in a written statement.

Clinton's announcement sparked a new round of debate over the DNC's decision last year to strip those states of convention delegates as punishment for scheduling early primaries. If Clinton wins this fight she could add the bulk of about 300 convention votes to her tally -- a potentially decisive bloc if the Democratic race goes all the way to the convention.

More About This Story: CQ Politics

Barack Obama's camp immediately issued a statement on Friday opposing convention voting rights for Florida and Michigan, arguing that Clinton is trying to talk up Florida's primary on Tuesday out of fear that she will lose today's primary in South Carolina. "Now that Senator Clinton’s worried about losing the first Southern primary, she’s using Florida for her own political gain by trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred." 

Democrats agreed to ban Florida and Michigan campaigning in order to protect the first-in-the-nation status for Iowa and New Hampshire. But now that the traditional kickoff states are behind them, Clinton and Obama are showing interest in Florida’s primary on Tuesday. While Clinton vows to restore the state's delegation, Obama is airing nationwide advertisements on cable news channels that happen to reach six million homes in Florida.

More Trail Mix: Florida to Forecast Both Party Races

In a move they might one day regret, Obama and John Edwards had their names removed from Michigan's Jan. 15 primary ballot, giving Clinton the only shot at bagging delegates if she wins her credentials fight at the convention.

The outcome of this byzantine struggle will be a long time coming, but for Tuesday's Florida primary Clinton is telling an expected turnout of one million Democrats that she is the only candidate who is willing to champion their voting rights at the national convention.

Craig on “Morning Joe”
South Carolina Democratic Primary
Saturday (1/26) MSNBC 7:00-9:00 AM EST

Perhaps Hillary Rodham Clinton should take a break from bashing a fellow Democrat and rally her party by taking on a Republican who is trashing her.

The New York senator got her opening in Thursday’s GOP debate when the soon-to-be-frontrunner Mitt Romney took several shots at her economic agenda and touted his own credentials as a businessman.

 “She takes her inspiration from the Europe of old, Big Brother, big government and big taxes,” Romney said in the last debate before Tuesday’s Florida primary. “I take mine from Republican ideals: small government, small taxes, individual freedom.”

How about this for Hillary’s response: Romney says he understands the economy, but what he really understands is how to profit from bankruptcies and lay off workers to get rich.

Even a cursory reading of the public record on Romney's years as a Boston-based investment executive shows that, while he helped turn around some companies, his handiwork also led to several bankruptcies (from which he profited) and to the layoffs of 4,551 workers at the following firms: American Pad & Paper, Dade International, LIVE Entertainment, and DDI Corp.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Friday (1/25) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

. . . and on "Morning Joe" SC Dem Primary
Saturday (1/26) MSNBC 7:00-9:00 AM EST

 

Democrats should fear Mitt Romney more than they think. Laughing him off as a phony Ward Cleaver overlooks the upside of that image.

Like the Dad on TV’s “Leave it to Beaver,” Romney offends no one. You can well imagine him also lounging around the house in a suit and tie dispensing platitudes to errant kids.

Most importantly, Romney endures such teasing without a hint of displeasure – and then goes on being just as goofily unwrinkled as ever. People like that.

Sure, there are those who gripe about his flip-flops on the “hot button” social issues, or who cringe at the sight of his creepily rigid strands of naturally tinted hair. But at the end of the day the man gently smiles with his head in that slight Reaganesque tilt and says something so benign, so forgettable and yet so intensely melodious that he lulls audiences into a silent chorus of head-nodding agreement.

Many times in town halls and other such settings I have watched Romney cast his spell. So much so that back in November I gave him my Trail Mix Stump Award after evaluating the personal appearances of all major candidates on both sides of the political aisles. There is a relentless and somehow endearing efficiency about his campaign style.

Debate Boost

On Thursday night in the final Republican debate before next week’s Florida primary, Romney finally did something that has eluded him so far in the campaign – he transferred his small-crowd appeal to the television tube.

If Romney’s earnest nerdliness can sell in a mass medium as well as it does in retail spaces, the former Massachusetts governor is not only a threat to his Republican rivals. He could be more of a danger to Democrats than they realize.

Romney is now effortlessly morphing from the fire-breathing social conservative wannabe of the early-state GOP primaries into the next phase of his shape-shifter candidacy. Before our glazing eyes, he evolves into the button-downed Republican version of an anti-Washington insurgent, evoking (if not consciously stealing) the stirring message of the Democratic Party’s champion of change, Barack Obama.

And when it comes to Clinton bashing, Obama is no match for Romney, who oozed out the line of the night in Thursday’s debate. “The idea of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do is something I can't imagine,” he said.

Savaging a foe with a joke that probably would get at least a slight chuckle from the  target himself? Sounds like Ronald Reagan to me. And oh yeah, seems like I remember Democrats writing him off as a joke in 1980.

ORLANDO -- What can it mean that only the moderators gave Mitt Romney a rough time in the latest Republican presidential debate?

It was as if Romney’s rivals did not understand that the wealthy businessman and former Massachusetts governor is on the verge of wiping them out. Or maybe they do know it, and have decided they are powerless to stop him.

Whatever the reason, Romney's opponents almost pretended he wasn't in the debate hall at Boca Raton's Florida Atlantic University on Thursday. Surely they were not already angling to be his running mate.

If Romney wins Florida’s primary on Tuesday – thanks in no small part to his massive television advertising buy – Romney could be unstoppable a week later on Super Duper Tuesday. He could be the only one with enough money to carry on.

This last debate before Florida Republicans go to the polls offered Romney's foes their only high-profile chance to take him on, considering that they cannot match his spending on ads in the state.

Letting Romney win this debate by default might well be remembered as the night that the 2008 GOP race sputtered to a close.

If John McCain can convince conservative Florida Republicans that he is one of them in tonight’s debate, the party's frontrunner-of-the-moment could win the state’s primary on Tuesday and probably go on to win the GOP nomination.

Perhaps the Arizona senator’s turnaround on immigration is the model for what he needs to do on other issues. After losing his frontrunner status earlier this year – partly due to his backing for immigration reform on Capitol Hill – McCain played the humility card. He began telling conservatives that they had a point, and he vowed to switch his priorities to emphasizing border control before again pursuing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

To win over conservatives in Florida’s closed primary – which allows only registered Republicans to vote – McCain will need to swear allegiance to tax cuts he once opposed and probably show some receptivity to the conservative side on issues such as opposing gun control.

The political calculus for McCain in this debate requires moving to the right just enough to win the state’s primary, but not so much that he loses his appeal to moderates and some Democrats who could help elect him in November.

Tonight’s Republican Presidential Debate at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton airs live on MSNBC and on msnbc.com from 9-10:30 p.m. EST.

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are moving so far apart that they might have to run together to save their party’s chances in November.

In an ominous aside on Wednesday, Obama questioned what might happen if he loses the Democratic presidential nomination to the New York senator and former First Lady.

“I have no doubt that once the nomination contest is over, I will get the people who voted for her,” the Illinois senator told the Christian Broadcast Network. “Now the question is can she get the people who voted for me?”

If Obama is even remotely suggesting that he and his supporters will not support a Clinton-led general election bid, then Clinton might be forced to consider choosing him as her running mate. Apparently, Obama is confident enough about his broad appeal to dismiss any need for Clinton on a ticket that he leads.

Still, if either Clinton or Obama wins the nomination, they might have to grin and bear it as a team. That is how politically lethal this racially-charged battle is becoming for Democrats.

It might sound counter-intuitive to civilians but sometimes in party politics even the angriest rivals for a presidential nomination can reach a point where they must join forces to win -- or perish apart.

John Kennedy picked a hugely aggressive Democratic competitor, Lyndon Johnson, to be his 1960 running mate. Ronald Reagan chose George H.W. Bush in 1980 after a bruising primary fight. Both tickets succeeded brilliantly at the ballot box, despite personal differences.

Earlier in this campaign, observers assumed that a woman and an African-American on the same ticket would be too much ground-breaking diversity for the nation to handle. But that was before things got so heated between the Clinton and Obama camps.

If the feuding gets much worse, binding them together might be the only way for Democrats to heal the divide.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Thursday (1/24) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

 

ORLANDO -- Florida’s Republican presidential primary on Tuesday is not friendly turf for Arizona Sen. John McCain to test his status as the party’s frontrunner of the moment.

For starters, Florida is running a closed primary, meaning that only registered Republicans can vote. And so far, that is a group McCain loses. He owed his New Hampshire and South Carolina victories to non-Republicans who were allowed to vote.

McCain is at odds with GOP rivals on some issues that ignite the party’s diehard voters. His moderate-to-liberal views on immigraton are not popular in Florida. Anti-tax Republicans are hearing a lot about his votes against President George W. Bush’s tax cuts. And it doesn’t help McCain that the primary ballot includes a tax cutting measure that is likely to attract economic conservatives to the polls.

Key state-specific issues are not playing into McCain’s hands. He opposes a national insurance pool that Florida politicians are pushing as a way to ease the burden on homeowners who suffer hurricane losses. McCain won’t sign on to basing a new aircraft carrier in Jacksonville – an idea that former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is touting in his bid for a comeback in Florida.

McCain’s many years in Washington could hurt him. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is running Florida television advertisements blasting Washington and anyone who works there.

Given what McCain is up against in Florida, a primary victory would confer major bragging rights and almost certainly propel him to the nomination.

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Wednesday (1/23) MSNBC 8:15 PM EST

 

So long, Fred Thompson.

In a presidential campaign full of surprises, the award for Most Overrated would have to go to the former Tennessee senator whose bid for the Republican nomination seemed so promising – until it actually began. On Tuesday, he officially ended it.

Now the buzz about the Hollywood actor will focus on whether he endorses his longtime friend, Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Despite running one of the most dismal campaigns in history, Thompson might still make the list of potential GOP running mates -- a fitting role for such an accomplished supporting actor.

Thanks to Thompson’s television and movie career, CQ Politics imagines how he might have used his acting skills for a more compelling exit from the presidential campaign:

The Trail Less Traveled: Imagining Fred's Exit Speech

Who wins and who loses in the presidential campaign’s new focus on the economy?

On the Republican side, the big winner could be Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor can now emphasize his impressive background as a corporate turnaround artist. He made himself super-rich, so maybe he can do the same for others.

Other GOP winners: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani got in front of the new economic agenda weeks ago with a dramatic tax-cutting plan. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could find some advantage with his facility for populist anti-corporate rhetoric.

The GOP’s biggest loser in an economics-obsessed campaign might be John McCain. For starters, the Arizona senator opposed President George W. Bush’s tax cuts -- and his rivals are not shy about saying so in the campaign for Florida’s Jan. 29 primary. In McCain’s losing bid for the Michigan primary last week, he proved to be unsteady in a race that dwells on economic woes.

Democrats in general fare best when voters are looking for immediate economic relief. There are no big losers in their race on this score.

Hillary Rodham Clinton might find an edge by reminding voters of the economic boom during her husband’s administration, but looking backwards can be risky. Her rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, are trying to reach voters with more future-oriented appeals.

Craig on “Countdown with Keith Olbermann”
Tuesday (1/22) MSNBC 8:30 PM EST

. . . and on "Morning Joe"
Wednesday (1/23) MSNBC 6:30 AM EST

 

For the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday, it makes no sense for Hillary Rodham Clinton to play to win.

It would be better for the New York Senator to let her African-American rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, win South Carolina on the strength of his appeal to the black vote and instead shift her focus to the mass of 22 states that are voting on Feb. 5.

Clinton should play hard in the Palmetto State, as a sign of respect for a crucial voting bloc in her party’s base. But playing to win would require more divisive attacks on Obama that could alienate African-Americans for a November run, if she gets the party nod.

In the Democratic debate on Monday night in South Carolina, Clinton pressed a forceful case against Obama’s readiness to serve. Enough said. She and former President Bill Clinton should head for the high ground in the remaining days before South Carolina votes.

CQ Politics: Debate Bests and Mosts

Clinton can again get away with lowering expectations by appearing to cede South Carolina and its majority black primary vote. And what if commentators on Saturday night focus on exit polls showing that Obama won only because he ran away with the African-American vote? The Clintons might then argue that it proves his lack of broad appeal.

Republican presidential hopefuls all but skipped observing Martin Luther King Day, while Democrats exclusively focused on today’s holiday honoring the civil rights leader.

Not all of the GOP candidates ignored the occasion. On Sunday in Atlanta, GOP contender Mike Huckabee sat in a front row pew at the Ebenezer Baptist Church, where King preached from 1960 until his assassination in 1968. Mitt Romney greeted African-Americans at a King parade in Jacksonville (awkwardly saying, "Who let the dogs out? Who who").

Despite those efforts, the sharp divide between the political parties over the political significance of black voters was painfully obvious on this national holiday.

For Republicans, the intense pressure of their intra-party rivalry did not allow room for focusing on voters who play no meaningful role in their nomination balloting. It is a reminder of how little progress the party has made in reaching out to African Americans.

With just a week left to compete for support in Florida’s Republican primary, most of the party’s presidential candidates clearly could not spare much time to even pay lip service to a voting bloc that means almost nothing to them.

ORLANDO -- Republicans are the only presidential hopefuls campaigning for Florida’s primary, but that is no reason to ignore how the Democrats perform on the Jan. 29 ballot.

Indeed, Florida matters to the Democratic race precisely because the candidates are not here.

The Democratic campaign ban, provoked by a party spat over the primary calendar, actually makes Florida an intriguing laboratory for predicting the outcome of similar circumstances a week later on so-called Super Duper Tuesday.

So many states vote on that day -- Feb. 5 -- that candidates will not be able to get much more done for those primaries and caucuses than in Florida, where they are not campaigning at all. What’s worse, they will only have nine days after the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday to campaign coast-to-coast for Super Duper Tuesday's 22 states and one territory.

Sure, the voters in Feb. 5th states will at least see television advertisements that Florida voters are not seeing. But candidates are not likely to spend an estimated $30-35 million a week for truly effective ad buys in so many states. Just as in Florida, the voters might end up getting most of their information about Democrats from national news coverage.

If Super Duper Tuesday voters get about the same limited degree of exposure to the candidates as Florida gets, the Sunshine State would seem to be a better predictor than the early-voting states where candidates campaigned door-to-door.

America's Biggest Swing State

One million Democrats are expected to vote in Florida's primary. That is roughly as many voters as the combined total for all party ballots cast so far in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada.

Florida is the nation's biggest swing state in general elections and the largest state to vote so far in the nomination races -- more reasons to consider it a forerunner to Feb. 5, when bellwethers such as Missouri and behemoths such as California and New York go to the polls.

Even though the national parties have restricted the state’s voting power at the nominating conventions, Florida's primary is still poised to influence what follows. For both parties, expect next week’s results to forecast what happens a week later on Super Duper Tuesday.

ORLANDO -- Republicans all, come on down. Florida is waiting.

Fresh from a heartwarming South Carolina victory on Saturday, John McCain might have the most work to do for the Sunshine State’s pivotal Jan. 29 primary.

Understandably, McCain has been a bit preoccupied with engineering a Cinderella-like comeback, starting with a stunning New Hampshire win and culminating in his Palmetto State victory (with a brief Michigan setback in between). That did not leave much time for the Florida trail, but he’s got ten days to make it up.

Mitt Romney beat McCain to Florida on Saturday, choosing Jacksonville as the locale for accepting his victory in the Nevada caucuses.

Mike Huckabee’s second-place finish in South Carolina was not the boost he wanted for a Florida bid, but the Baptist preacher will find a massive following of homeschoolers ready to march.

Of course, nobody can top Rudy Giuliani when it comes to obsessing on Florida. He has been here so long that some think he might actually be running for governor.

There will be nothing like a Florida win to launch one of these final four GOPers into orbit for Really Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. And everything is in place for a hot campaign.

Polls show a four-way tie, there’s a nationally-televised debate on Thursday, and the average high temperature over the next 10 days will be 74 degrees.

It is always easy to tell when media prognosticators picked the wrong candidate to win an election, even when they fail to admit error. Instead, they say the actual winner, whom they predicted to lose, “won the expectations game.”

Expect a lot of talk about the expectations game in the wake of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s victory in the Nevada caucuses. Once again, a slew of pundits are spitting through the egg residue on their faces to explain away another round of predictions that the New York senator's main rival, Barack Obama, would win. Their specious argument goes like this: We would have correctly predicted this outcome if the dastardly winner had not deceived us.

Never mind that Nevada’s caucus system was destined to measure little more than a candidate’s sway over the state’s Democratic establishment, which was always firmly in Clinton’s camp. When Nevada’s Culinary Workers Union backed Obama shortly after the Illinois senator lost the New Hampshire primary, it was not the Clinton campaign’s fault that Obama’s media supporters overstated its impact.

Craig on "Decision '08"
Saturday (1/19) MSNBC
7:10 PM and 9:40 PM EST
(times subject to change)

What if voters in Nevada and South Carolina wake up today and actually make their own decisions? What if this is the year when presidential balloting results in earlier-voting states do not affect what happens next?

The longest-ever presidential campaign might mean that by the time the voting started in Iowa on Jan. 4th the electorate in later states had learned enough about the candidates to make choices without regard to the outcomes in earlier states. Like how New Hampshire picked different winners for both parties than Iowa did. Or how Michigan went a different direction than either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The unthinkable could be happening. We could be witnessing an end to the media echo chamber's long cherished power to build momentum by glorifying the winner in one state with effusive coverage that influences voters in the next round of primaries. 

If voters are making up their own minds without regard for media-anointed “frontrunners,” they might just get carried away and do their own thing on Feb. 5 when more than 20 states go to the polls.

This is revolutionary stuff. Without media-driven momentum, elections could be unpredictable and interesting. When voters stop caring about what the media predicts, those of us who make our living from covering politics might actually have to start talking about the here and now.

We might really have to INFORM VOTERS and ANALYZE what is ACTUALLY HAPPENING instead of telling everyone who will or should win. This could be fun.

Craig on "Decision '08"
Saturday (1/19) MSNBC
10am-12pm and 6pm-10pm EST

The most wide open presidential campaign in generations is turning into a chaotic free-for-all. And nerves are frayed.

Bill Clinton argues with a reporter over Nevada voting rules. Mitt Romney tangles with the media over lobbyists on his campaign team.

But just imagine how voters in a targeted state must feel when the heat of this campaign engulfs their daily lives. Thousands of political ads are flooding South Carolina's airwaves in advance of Saturday's Republican primary.

CQ Politics imagines what an afternoon of channel surfing in South Carolina might be like:

But At Least Somebody is Having Fun . . .

"I Got a Crush...On Hillary" (take that obama girl!)

"I Got a Crush...On Obama" By Obama Girl

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Friday (1/18) MSNBC 8:00 PM EST

... and on "Decision '08" with Joe Scarborough
Saturday (1/19) MSNBC 10AM -12PM EST

A new tradition could be emerging in presidential politics. Call it the Last Stand Gambit.

Born of necessity in an age of compressed calendars, shrinking budgets and short attention spans, the idea is for contenders on the ropes to suggest that their candidacies could soon be terminated unless voters grant a stay of execution.

This ploy is sort of like holding a pistol to a puppy’s head and saying, “Vote for me or I’ll shoot.”

With so many candidates and so little time in this front-loaded rush of primaries, dithering voters appear reluctant to let their state be remembered as the one to end a major hopeful’s bid.

Democrats Play the Game

Democratic contender Barack Obama’s wife, Michele, might deserve credit for discovering the Last Stand Gambit. On several occasions before the Jan. 4th Iowa caucuses she broadly hinted that her husband could not keep going without a win in the state. Sure enough, the Illinois senator went on to clinch a dramatic victory in Iowa.

When down for the count before the New Hampshire primary a few days after the Iowa vote, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign openly suggested that time was running out for voters to keep the first politically viable woman in the race. The New York senator eked out a win.

Of course, the gamble in this gambit is that sometimes the voters call your bluff. John Edwards had made Iowa his end-all-and-be-all state. But the former North Carolina senator narrowly came in second and now struggles to be taken seriously. 

GOP Gamblers

On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain made New Hampshire his last stand and won. A week later, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won his native state of Michigan with the make-or-break theme.

Republican Mike Huckabee faces a do-or-die moment for Saturday’s Republican primary in South Carolina. Some voters who lean toward the former Arkansas governor and Iowa winner might go his way just to give him the fresh boost he needs to stay in the running.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has made a blatant pitch for last-minute sympathy in South Carolina, unhesitatingly declaring the state to be his last stand.

And on Jan. 29 in Florida, look for former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani to enter a plea with voters for his political life.

Democrats struggling to choose between New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the presidential nomination will have to take sides based upon their differences in style. There are no meaningful differences in substance -- a fact confirmed this week by an exhaustive comparison now on CQ Politics.

"Judging by their Senate records, voters could pick either one of them and get more or less the same package," CQ's David Nather writes.

Of course, puzzled Democrats could always opt for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, whose winnability took a major hit earlier this month with his failure to win in Iowa where he had devoted most