Conventional Wisdom Redux; New Iowa Poll Boosts Clinton and Romney

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Eight days, 192 hours or 11,520 minutes. However you measure it, Iowa’s first-in-the-nation voting for the longest-ever presidential campaign is almost here.

With the brief Christmas Day break barely over, today begins the final sprint. And it appears that the race has taken another wild turn for each political party.

The latest survey data shows Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney on the move in Iowa largely due to a sudden shift of male voters to their candidacies.

A new American Research Group poll found such a stunning rise for Clinton that you have to wonder if something is wrong with the survey. In only a week’s time between ARG polls, the New York senator moved from a 4-point lead to a double-digit lead over her closest competitors, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is pulling back into contention with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Hukabee among Iowa Republicans surveyed by ARG.

The next crop of polls will reveal if ARG’s latest survey is an anomaly, but based upon my 30 years of experience with the Iowa caucuses it would not surprise me to see this state's savvy voters return the lead to Clinton and Romney. If so, my pre-holiday Conventional Widsom Mea Culpa might already be obsolete.

Hawkeye State partisans are among the nation’s most strategically-minded voters. They think long and hard about picking the candidate deemed best equipped to beat the other side in a tough general election campaign -- even if they find someone else more likable or closer to their own views on the issues.

If Clinton and Romney win the electability argument in the next week of Iowa campaigning, they could win the caucuses on Jan. 3 and claim frontrunner status for their party nominations.

 

    Comments

  1. I think Oprah backfired in Ioway........

    road signage in Charleston area, SC:
    Huckabee......1
    Rudy...............1
    McCain and Ron Paul........too numerous to count, but essentially neck and neck.....and I saw many Ron Paul signs in the yards of some very high end domiciles........

    Posted by: sturgeone | December 26, 2007 6:26 AM

  2. better picture with person for size reference:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_Oak

    Posted by: sturgeone | December 26, 2007 6:53 AM

  3. Wow, Sturge, that tree is astonishing! Wish I'd known about it when I went on my Charleston Garden Tour some years back.....I'd have made the effort to see it.

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 7:37 AM

  4. ARGGGGGGGGGGGGG
    the pirate poll

    NBC has chosen not to cover this poll
    because it is in the way of their narrative

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 7:53 AM

  5. Tweety just repeated the story Bob Kerrey said about Obama's background but said if he wins the primary it would be the biggest story of the age...what a load of crap.

    If Clinton wins it will be a big story because it is the first woman. But Matthews wants to be the story instead of covering it.

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 8:05 AM

  6. Matthews thinks Mika is a "cutie pie" and very smart

    and is there any question about his attitude toward women.....

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 8:07 AM

  7. I am sick of Matthews asking if Obama can keep his "mojo" workin'.....would he use that phrase referring to Mitt Romney?

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 8:26 AM

  8. Mika should have swatted him one.

    Matthews also faulted Clinton for being an "Elistist" ... Talk about Pot meet Kettle. Tweety's picture is the one next to the definition of Mysogynistic Conceited Ass.

    Posted by: Jamie | December 26, 2007 8:52 AM

  9. MoJoe is so much better without the Joe part.

    Posted by: Jamie | December 26, 2007 8:53 AM

  10. When Tweety played the various Christmas commercials, he was outraged at Hillary's, saying, "She thinks she's so much smarter than we are....that she'll 'give' us things....she just thinks she's so smart."

    And I thought that was a very telling reaction coming from an oinker. God forbid a woman be smart....

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 9:04 AM

  11. Gee dnd
    got anything good to say about Richardon?
    About how he changed his mind about eyerack as he tried to stake out the farthest left position?

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 9:12 AM

  12. All the denigration of Clinton's experience does --is make Obama and Edwards look like they have even less. They have even less time in elective office then Shrub....so even if you take her down on this issue what did Obama do to himself.

    And then you come to the issue of judgement which is the Obama et al argument and what can you say about the judgement of someone who votes present.

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 9:14 AM

  13. You know what the problem is with Oprah? She isn't just being a talk show host anymore. She presents herself on her show so often as almost a spiritual leader... somehow above us mere mortals. Whoopi Goldberg, who was in The Color Purple with Oprah, made a comment when all the Oprah hype was going on. Whoopi said: "she doesn't walk on water". But that's the attitude I get from watching her show, at least the ones dealing with major "issues"...

    I think Hillary Clinton was an AWESOME first lady. She didn't just sit on her butt reading Ladies Home Journal... she worked hard in both the East and West wings. I have never understood this so-called "polarization" claim about her. She was belittled for calling the haters of Bill what they were: "a vast right wing conspiracy", and maybe people think she should have divorced her husband but she LOVED him and still does. Who are we to judge that? What I found so interesting is how many right wingers "family council" types had nothing positive to say about her staying with her man. They usually tell abuse victims to stay with their marriage and that's worse!!

    Anyway, I really do believe this is about sexism. America still has problems with strong women. If you are strong, and a woman, you are a bitch. You are a challenge to the status quo. But HIllary is pretty much all American... She grew up REPUBLICAN and actually tried to challenge the Kennedy win in 1960 in Chicago. She has evolved over time and I find her very intelligent and likable. I find Obama very charismatic and likable.

    I wish they'd get done with the primaries so Hillary could chose a good running mate such as Obama.

    Cheers,


    Posted by: Thomas Freeman Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 9:24 AM

  14. There have been such vicious attacks on Hillary one can only hope that the poll from Iowa is correct. It would prove with a great deal of gratification that intelligent and thoughtful voters can see through the untrustworthiness of too many in the media. America deserves and needs a media who can deal fairly with the issues and all too often w don't get it. It has been a disgusting display
    of questionable motivations

    Posted by: Thelma Goldstein | December 26, 2007 9:30 AM

  15. KGC,
    1. Richardson, like many others -- including Hillary -- changed his mind on Iraq after the facts came out. Hillary changed her mind on torture when it became politically necessary to do so. Torture is a moral issue.

    2. The point about experience is that Hillary is touting her experience as a central theme of her campaign. Fair enough. But since she has done that, it puts her experience up to scrutiny.

    Posted by: dnd | December 26, 2007 9:35 AM

  16. When did Richardson change his mind on torture

    do you know?

    And you caim facts not in evidence about Clinton's motivation as well as Richardson's.

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 9:38 AM

  17. Richardson was a part of the same Clinton administration and supported the same policies

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 9:42 AM

  18. " Hillary changed her mind on torture when it became politically necessary to do so. "

    Do you know this for a fact?

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 9:51 AM

  19. By the way, if I heard it right, this morning David Schuster said that Huckabee will be the next president because in the end it will be about likeability.....

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 9:53 AM

  20. KGC,
    Richardson was Sec of Energy. Not too much torture goes on in the Dept. of Energy.

    Richardson has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize four times.

    Posted by: dnd | December 26, 2007 9:53 AM

  21. He was a member of the cabinet who trades on his foreign policy experience and his being sent on missions for the US...are you saying he had no idea?
    And if you are a supporter I don't think I would bring up his dept of energy tenure it's what cost him the vp slot

    And he hasn't won once....

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 9:56 AM

  22. Willie Giest gave people copies of Bigot Buchanan's book for Christmas....family members.

    ewwwwwwwwwww

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 9:58 AM

  23. Patsi,
    "Do you know this for a fact?"

    Of course not. It's impossible to know that unless one was part of her inner circle. I inferred it. In an October 2006 she said it was ok under certain circumstances. Now she says it's not. It may be that she had some sort of epiphany. I don't know.

    BTW Schuster may be right about Huckabee. Likeability was a major factor in the 2000 election, and look what we wound up with...

    Posted by: dnd | December 26, 2007 10:00 AM

  24. Richardson was also Ambassador to the UN and certainly was involved then

    Posted by: Katherine Graham Cracker | December 26, 2007 10:02 AM

  25. previously I said I thought Mojo should be called the Ricky Bobby Show but now after seeing the commercials for Charlie Wilson's War it is clear that Tom Hanks looks almost exactly like Joe. So, with that said, I will forever refer to Joe as Forest Gump.

    yo soy Horsedooty!

    Posted by: horsedooty | December 26, 2007 10:04 AM

  26. Thomas Freeman, that's an interesting quote you have there from Whoopi about Oprah ("she doesn't walk on water"). any idea where she said that? thanks for commenting, btw. -- Craig

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 10:06 AM

  27. Thelma Goldstein -- thanks for joining the fray, we welcome your comments. gotta say, i have been stunned in recent weeks by the media's unfair coverage of HRC. i am not her defender, but do think some balance is in order. -- Craig

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 10:11 AM

  28. "Likeability was a major factor in the 2000 election, and look what we wound up with..."

    Let us hope the voters have learned their lesson and will look for a scarecrow that has finally received a brain.

    Posted by: Jamie | December 26, 2007 10:44 AM

  29. Craig,

    Here is a print reference for the Whoopie quote among many others

    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ent/tv/5395536.html

    Posted by: Jamie | December 26, 2007 10:46 AM

  30. Craig- I know that in democratic circles historically here in NH the ARG polls tend to be marginalized are favoring republicans and their causes. I am not speaking about this specific poll- but rather, out of all of the polls except for Zogby interactive they are discounted.

    Posted by: Kathy | December 26, 2007 10:55 AM

  31. "BTW Schuster may be right about Huckabee. Likeability was a major factor in the 2000 election, and look what we wound up with..."

    No kidding, dnd....I wonder what the buzz will be this time....probably not, "Who would you rather have a beer with".....

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 10:58 AM

  32. By the way, Craig....my son just won an award in DC and I asked him if you showed up to cover the department's ceremony and the Under Secretary's kind words....ha!

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 11:01 AM

  33. dnd,

    I can't call myself a Hillary supporter, but the article you posted looked fine to me. Without a security clearance, Hillary could not be exposed to all the information her husband was, and the President would have violated his own clearance if he shared any part of classified information that was available to him.

    It's not a knock on Hillary to point out those distinctions. She still played an important role in international relations during the Clinton administration, and the article acknowledges that fact. It's too bad that they didn't do a better job explaining the security clearance issue, and how "need to know" information is handled, but otherwise, I think they got things right.

    Posted by: EdVB Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 11:04 AM

  34. There are a great many attributes to consider in voting for a candidate. Here are a few.

    Have they been tested and proven on personal level?

    Have they been involved in major decisions and shown clear-headedness and good judgement?

    Have they shown ability to work with the other officials in their own party?

    Have they shown willingness and ability to work with officials in the opposition party?

    Is the candidates personal philisophy and conduct compatible with a broad segment of honorable and serious people?

    Has the candidate shown political acumen and the ability to hold supporters and attract new supporters?

    No doubt Iowa voters will add several other points to my list.

    Using this list, I find the GOP candidates troubling- they all seem unwilling or unable to break out of the confrontational mind-set that typifies Bush-Cheney.

    Among the Democrats, the front runners and the second tier candidates seem to have such different backgrounds and experiences, that choosing is difficult.

    I hope that the caucus-goers will do their best to forecast to 2011, and think through whether they will be able to back the Democratic President then.

    Posted by: Robert Chapman | December 26, 2007 11:13 AM

  35. Patsi,
    I'd love to have a beer with Hillary. I find her fascinating. I just don't agree with her politics. But who knows? After a few cocktails... In vino veritas

    Posted by: dnd | December 26, 2007 11:14 AM

  36. "Using this list, I find the GOP candidates troubling- they all seem unwilling or unable to break out of the confrontational mind-set that typifies Bush-Cheney.

    Among the Democrats, the front runners and the second tier candidates seem to have such different backgrounds and experiences, that choosing is difficult."

    Agree wholeheartedly, Robert.

    dnd...ha! You and Hillary bellying up to the bar....I've thought about the beer question (as a source of amusement, of course)....on the Dem side, probably Bill Richardson. And I can think of no Repub candidate I'd go quaffing with....

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 11:31 AM

  37. Oh, and I'd go to a polka with Dennis Kucinich....he's a great pal of my friend Steve Popovich, who owns Cleveland International Records...home of many polkas....including my favorite, "If You Can't Do The Polka, Don't Marry My Daughter."

    Posted by: Patsi | December 26, 2007 11:42 AM

  38. Morning peeps.

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 11:47 AM

  39. yes, Kathy, i have long heard the complaints about ARG polls but but within the same poll, same methodology, she goes from a dead heat a week ago to a 14 pt lead? even if it is somehow flawed there must be some real movement

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 11:58 AM

  40. Craig the same poll shows a two point jump for Edwards and 6 point drop for Obama so to avoid being accused of throwing out the baby with the bath water I won't comment on it!

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 12:05 PM

  41. yes, Brian, don't blame you -- it's good news for Edwards if true. Everyone keep a sharp eye out for the next Iowa poll, that'll tell us whether this one is out to lunch.

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 12:11 PM

  42. Hows the ankle and smoking coming along Craig?

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 12:13 PM

  43. well, my smoke-out going well, but not the ankle. thanks for asking. doctors all in a panic, insisting on surgery in the morning. at this point would rather just cut the damn thing off.

    Posted by: Craig Crawford Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 12:20 PM

  44. Sorry you're having such a hard time with the ankle. However look at the bright side, if you're doped up for post surgery it will make it much easier to deal with the smoking issue. Silver lining!

    Posted by: Brian In NYC Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 12:22 PM

  45. Brian,
    "if you're doped up for post surgery it will make it much easier to deal with the smoking issue."

    You are such a glass-half full person. The post-surgery pain killers may also help with the Iowa primaries.

    Craig,
    The doctors may be concerned about thrombosis resulting in gangrene. Good luck with it.

    Posted by: dnd | December 26, 2007 1:07 PM

  46. new thread.

    Posted by: dnd | December 26, 2007 1:09 PM

  47. Hello Craig. I found the quote on The Houston Chronicle website ... It was about the Oprah backlash. Here is what was said...

    ************************************************************************************

    Earlier this month, actress and The View co-host Whoopi Goldberg took a jab at Winfrey.

    Goldberg was excluded from the list of pioneering African-American women whom Winfrey feted during her Legends Weekend in 2006, but previously had said little about it.

    When ABC News anchor Charles Gibson, a View guest, discussed the "Oprah effect" on Obama's presidential campaign, Goldberg commented, "She doesn't walk on water."

    ************************************************************************************
    It is probable that Whoopi has garnered anger about the following, which she has never discussed publicly:

    "en though Oprah Winfrey and Whoopi Goldberg ascended to fame together in 1985's "The Color Purple," Oprah apparently didn't seem fit to include Whoopi in her extravagant, year-in-the-making Legends Weekend, a glitzy, over-the-top celebration of the vanguard of African-American women back in May.

    Whereas everyone from Maya Angelou to Gladys Knight to Toni Morrison was celebrated over the weekend with a luncheon, a ball and a brunch, Whoopi was nowhere to be seen. Though both stars have denied a rift resulting in the snub, Goldberg's omission was noticeable, especially when lesser lights like Angela Bassett, Audra McDonald, and Brandy were feted (in a grouping called "The Young'uns").

    Parade magazine asked its readers to weigh in on whether Whoopi should have been invited to the event, and a resounding 76% said that Oprah was indeed wrong to exclude the actress-comedian from the weekend."

    - TMZ website (ok it's a gossip site, but the Houston Chronicle piece was not gossip... Whoopi said that on telly).

    Thomas

    Posted by: Thomas Freeman Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 3:17 PM

  48. Ok I am not following all of this, but Craig, if you are trying to quit smoking, I salute you. It's a nasty habit. You'll feel better once you are free of it. !!

    Best,

    Thomas

    Posted by: Thomas Freeman Author Profile Page | December 26, 2007 3:18 PM

  49. Re: "i have long heard the complaints about ARG polls but but within the same poll, same methodology, she goes from a dead heat a week ago to a 14 pt lead? even if it is somehow flawed there must be some real movement"

    There has been movement - movement of Bill's fingers punching the phone to tell his buddies at ARG it's time for him to call in an old chit with them and try - however lamely and transparently - to move the needle.

    Of course, with some journalists happy to report ARG polls as Just Another Poll, that work is being done for them. Not soft on Hillary, Craig?

    Please.

    Posted by: Mr. Luxury Yacht | December 27, 2007 10:19 AM

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