Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Good morning! I'm already starting to assemble some of the Thanksgiving meal....some appetizers to freeze and bring out tomorrow when company starts arriving. And so the season begins....

Brian, hope you are up to watch Elizabeth Edwards interviewed by Mika B (can't spell it) on MSNBC. Elizabeth is such a wonderfully up front person....when I think about First Ladies and compare her with -- say-- Fred or Rudy's wife, well.....

question to fran townsend: why not just wait until the administration is over, ie 14 months.

Ms Townsend: the good news is that all the soldiers will still be there in Iraq.

Huh?

Craig.... here in NH we do take our politics seriously and think it is our duty to pay attention because we are the nation's first primary..... we also have a high voter turn out rate....

dnd.... your Broncos won last night..... I watched up til halftime..... I hate all this fuss about the Patriots having an undefeated season..... any sport fan worth his salt knows that any given team can beat another for a variety of reasons....... but.... hell yeah!..... they are playing great so far this season.....

someone asked a few threads ago what everyone was doing for Thanksgiving...... Rick and I are going to his parents.... his youngest brother along with his girlfriend and 2 kids (both in their 20s) will be there as well....
my contribution is very hard...... I have to go to a restaurant with an awesome bakery attached and buy the pie (pumpkin maple w/cream cheese and pecan streusel topping) and a couple dozen shortbread cookies.....
I'll probably bring a good bottle of wine also..... my in-laws drink the stuff from a box....

Is that woman evil or incredibly stupid? "We don't comment on techniques because Al Qaida will train against them" .... errr Ms. Townsend, waterboarding has been around for about 500 years at least. Since it was practiced during the Spanish Inquisition, the Moslems may have invented it. They probably know about that "technique".

evil or incredibly stupid.....combination of both? (Like the rest of her associates.)

You nailed it surge....this entire administration has shown us what stupid and evil can do when they get together.

Oh you can call me sturge, or you can call me sturgeon, or you can call me Fish or you can call me Sturgee.....but ya doesnt has to call me "Surge".

ar ar...apologies to Ray J.

sturg.... LOL.... isn't it was good to see CBob posting again on newsvine.....

Brian..... I have always been fascinated by creation stories.... I consider them to be humankind's stories and myths ala Joseph Campbell..... but for someone to take their own religion's folklore seriously as fact and then think that someone else's religious folklore is weird or cultish is definitely hypocritical in my book....

I just starting reading John Dean's third book of his trilogy about the Bush administration "Broken Government"..... I love the way he writes..... and, god.... he pegs those people so perfectly.......

yes indeed about Cbob....I miss his postings here, though........he led me on some merry wanderings......

Heard this the other day: If there are two ways to take something I've said and one of them hurts your feelings.....I meant the other one.......

Patsi,
I love Elizabeth Edwards. If she was running for president, she'd win in a landslide.

Fran Townsend wants to use her skill set in the private sector? Does Josef Mengele have a consulting company?

Good morning-

Hey Craig- who are you plannng to see up here?

About your article above- so far, I see that undecided is the front runner in NH. I know a lot of people (dems) who woud usually work their hearts out for candidates at this point, less than two months before the primary. But they are undeclared. I do not see HR's support increasing. Many who are open to her have a concern at the back of their mind.

CBob is deeply involved in the whole idea of global warming and the ecological damage being done. My last article was about the boomers. One fact. When we arrived there were only a little over 2 billion people on earth. By the time we exit, there will be over 7 billion. Not good for children or other living things.

First snow of the year in Leominster, MA right now. Probably won't amount to anything, but it makes me start thinking of heading up to Waterville Valley or Gunstock for some skiing.

I really think it is too early to tell where the voting is going to go in NH, it seems that with the primary moving up so soon , we aren't going to have as much time to see the candidates as other years. Particularly since they are spending alot of time in Iowa. I think that because Edwards has been concentrating his efforts there, others have followed in kind to reduce his chances of using it as a springboard. If he doesn't do well in Iowa he is out of it. As far as I can tell the only person talking about Edwards in NH is my brother in law.

Renee: My copy of Mrs. Whaley and Her Charleston Garden just arrived; ordered a copy when you praised it.

And it's just be leaving too -- can already tell it's going to be a hostess gift for a wonderful inlaw who's hosting Thanksgiving dinner. So need to order a fresh copy or two.

Bowmanc,

Have you seen any candidates- I have seen Edwards (this cycle) three times, and he has a lot more support among activists than the polls show- many former Dean supports like him the most- at least in my area.
I have been talking with many- say age 50 plus men- who will vote democratic, and they do not support HRC- not that they hate her, just are weary and concerned. I hear more and more people voicing this sentiment.

Kathy: yeah, I am dreading Hillary being the frontrunner, because there are just too many people who will not vote for her. They will sit it out. Saw this with Kerry in 2004.

I'd love to see a close tie in Iowa between Obama and Edwards, and HRC not doing much better in NH. Need to keep this a competitive race; too early to close off options.

Also, I hope in years future they take away the Iowa caucuses. Yes, Iowans are dedicated folks, but having 8-10% of one state's population have such an outsized say is WRONG. Know some fear the loss of "retail campaigning", but how helpful is that when it's only in one or two states?

I lived in Des Moines, Iowa for 9 of the longest months of my life in the early '70s. Now that I've developed an interest in politics, perhaps I'd find the time goes faster and that I actually enjoy the place - at least every four years. Whatever, I certainly do envy those of our citizens who have the opportunity to hear first-hand what the various candidates think and believe, and to actually get to meet them. Much better basis for voting than a handful of 30-second+ trumped up commercials on the teevee! And, looking from this distance, I can only hope the voters of Iowa and NH shake things up in the front-runner ranks this January.

RR...Thanks for the rundown on your Turkey Day plans! Sounds like fun. I just wish you didn't have to work so hard ! Now...what are the rest of you planning???

Harbor: I'm a guest. Just bringing some wine and have offered to make a dessert or 2.

Yourself?

Kathy.... you beat me to it..... I too am seeing Edwards bumper stickers in this region on cars owned by former Deaniacs....

dog.... I wouldn't be surprised if this is NH's last time with first in the nation status..... here about 75% of registered voters went to the polls in the last primary....

Jamie.... you and me both think the #1 ecological disaster is human overpopulation...

Bowman..... I see you're back in your hometown..... it's snowing up here along the border also..... and it's accumulating.... I consider it God's present to Craig upon his arrival in our beauticious state..... :)

PS: earlier post on Iowa was too unimaginative: I would love to see ANYBODY but HIllary catch fire in Iowa and/or NH, so more voters and more regions will have a say in the nomination. It's deadly to have it over so long and then they slug it out for another 10 months. This is effing insane.

I have a question that's right up Jamie and kgc's alley. The media gets all excited about movement among candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire polls, but I'm more concerned with who wins the White House. By that I mean there's no significance to Kerry making a big move and suprassing Dean because the Democrats did not ultimately win the presidency.

So my question is, among Democratic Presidents, beginning with Kennedy, which ones won in the Iowa caucus or New Hampshire primary? I know candidates also score points for exceeding expectations in those states, but for a first pass, let's just talk about those who won, if any.

Brian answered that question a while back; think his analysis was that Iowa is not that determinative of eventual nominee; do not recall if he answered about eventual presidential victor.

But Iowa is determinative, because it's enough to knock out a candidate who would catch on a bit later in the process, and be more nationally appealing.

This business where Iowa could put up everyone's second choice -- that is just damn scary. That's how we got Kerry last time.

EdVB

go here for NH primary results

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary

New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President Harry S. Truman, leading Truman to abandon his campaign for a third term.

The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was Lyndon Johnson, who, as a write-in candidate, managed only a 49-42 percent victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968 (and won fewer delegates than McCarthy), and consequently withdrew from the race. [2] Before 1992 the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000. Moreover, the winner in New Hampshire has not always gone to win his party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans John McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Democrats Estes Kefauver in 1952 and 1956 and Paul Tsongas in 1992. .

EdVB,
I don't know the answer to your question, other than in the 60's the nominee was frequently not known until the convention. And was occasionally picked in the smoke filled back rooms.

Given the train wreck the current process is, I'm not so sure the smoke filled back rooms was such a bad idea...

there is some suggestion that the "nicest" candidate might be behind the pushpolls.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/19/antimormon-calls-causing_n_73402.html

there is some suggestion that the "nicest" candidate might be behind the pushpolls.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/19/antimormon-calls-causing_n_73402.html

the most interesting thing to me in the new Brokaw book (I generally think he is nothing but pop culture crapola--what's next a book about big Tom)

He interviewed Mark Rudd who said the worst mistake he made was not to support Humbert Humphrey. It's a lesson we should all remember as we go through the primary process or we will end up with something worse than Shrub --

KGC: but your point is what? There is no VP running in this one. Are you suggesting HRC?

One issue now is the number of independents and breakdown of party identification. I would think the next president will be the candidate who successfully appeals to the most independents.

Dog
that was a post primary decision --they supported not one and Nixon won --sort of like all the turds who suported Nader because they hated Bush and ended up with him anyway.
EdVB
http://iseablog.blogspot.com/2007/11/history-of-iowa-caucuses.html

Dog
you must be too young to know who Mark Rudd is

Thanks for the link and the answers I've seen so far.

dnd,

It's a sad commentary, but I agree that those smoke filled rooms may have served us better in recent years, and might be what's needed in '08. I'm not anti-Hillary, but I'm convinced, she's the one Democratic candidate who could lose the general election without even making any kind of gaffe.

BowmanC,

You've helped make the point I think I was going for. We have fond memories of Presidents McCarthy, Kefauver, and Tsongas.

morning peeps

Any of the top three Dems are OK with me. Their "flaws" are silly surface-level crap, just the kind of thing Rove likes to peddle and the MSM likes to repeat, and repeat, and repeat, rather than deal in substance.

Ideologically, the top three Dems are essentailly the same. And any of them has more brains and ability then the entire Bush clan, going back nine generations.

dog,
"I would think the next president will be the candidate who successfully appeals to the most independents."

I agree. But here a rehtorical question:
What if the candidate who appeals to most independents doesn't get a party nomination?

I'm waiting for the Republican-enabling MSM to wise up and change their tune as they realize that, after Nov 2008, the Democrats are going to be in power a LONG time.

The media conglomerates will soon have a new group of masters to suck up to.

If I hear one more pundit talk about experience w.r.t. Obama and Clinton, I'm throwing my TV out the window. Which could be a problem, as it's getting really cold here.

Each of the dems "second tier" candidates have more experience that Obama and Hillary PUT TOGETHER! Sheesh.

dnd: re nominee and independents: I am afraid of that. The Dems think this election is theirs for the taking, and they may find out otherwise.

KGC: you are right. Who is Mark Rudd? (DNC chair?)

KC Cracker
re: Brokaw book

I heard Brokaw peddling his lame book on MSNBC. Every damn thing he said was wrong. That's all we need, a critical & controversial period in history interpreted by a "journalist" who's greatest goal seems to be to offend no one on the right.

The anti-war protesters of the 60s and early 70s have NOTHING to apologize for. And we don't need some draft-doging wealthy MSM airhead telling us that we do.

The same assholes who got us into Vietnam got us into Iraq. Not a damn thing has changed and "journalists" like Brokaw still don't have a clue.

Dog:
re: Who is Mark Rudd?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Rudd

Thanks Nash. Had hit Wikipedia; Rudd was the Columbia U protestors' spokesman....

Is the Mark character in Doonesbury based on him?

bowmanc & kgc,

I love and respect President Carter, but in scanning the links you guys provided, he appears to be the only winner the Iowa Democrats picked in their caucus, and they picked him when he won and when he lost, so they're only batting .500 on him.

Generally speaking, the Iowa Republicans seem to be better at choosing someone, who will eventually reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The sad story is that it's not what the candidates say or do that matters, it's what the press/media says about what the candidates say and do that will influence voters. My high school Latin teacher used to refer to us students as "the great unwashed" and unfortunately, that's how I see the electorate.

If only they were smart enough to agree with me.

Under which vine does C-Bob post?

~TIA

Should I add Townsend to The List? For being evil or incredibly stupid.....combination of both?

tt

Here's Miami Herald column on HRC potentially losing to Giuliani. Comments are interesting; you will find several posters for Biden.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2007/11/giuliani-beats.html
======

On why Townsend resigned? Maybe she could not hold her nose and exercise to keep her trim figure at the same time.

Did you hear about her fawning resignation letter? What is with these female appointees? Gadzooks.

On a more personal note, today is an anniversary for me. As I told my friends at work, November 20, 1967 was the day I raised my right hand and took that long bus ride from the Army Induction Station in Albany to Fort Dix, NJ. What a lonely Thanksgiving I had that year.

That was the first time I had ever seen so much sand. More than twenty years later, I got to the Jersey Shore, and saw what sand was supposed to be used for.

Wow EdVB. To use a cliche: thank you for your service. But really, thank you.

Mark Rudd was also part of the weathermen. I don't think he was apologizing for anything just pointing out --Humphrey would have been a much better president than tricky dick and they should not have sat out the election. I did vote in that election and for Humphrey. I had been part of the McCarthy campaign but tried not to be bitter,

Was it ping pong who said Hillary peaked at Halloween? I'm beginning to think he might have been right. I'm beginning to think that the Hillary campaign is in trouble and things are going to get really hot between now and the caucus. What fun!

ping and fry both said the same thing in the same words ==they must both work for nbc

Hillary is in a lot of trouble on the secondary questions. That tells her support is not very solid.

You know, I am feeling totally turned off by politics, and it's usually something I enjoy. Cannot trust most analysis or even facts (selectively) presented by many MSM newspapers.

Can you imagine how the rest of the country feels?

And I think Hillary and Bill would have done the country a huge favor by remaining "honest brokers" and doing their best for the Democratic ticket. They put self-interest ahead of seeing that a post 9/11 uniter might be elected.

The msm is making a big deal of who is more honest. I didn't know honesty was a relative term and I though according some that honesty as a trait in pols was overrated.

KC it's not just the honesty question, it's also effect the most change question, likability, ect. Regardless of what MSM is making of the numbers they are very telling.

dog,
"You know, I am feeling totally turned off by politics, and it's usually something I enjoy. Cannot trust most analysis or even facts (selectively) presented by many MSM newspapers."

I hear you. The conspiracy theory in me makes me think this is done on purpose. Makes me wonder if the MSM wants to be king/queen makers rather than just stewards of the fourth estate.

"They put self-interest ahead of seeing that a post 9/11 uniter might be elected.""

Amen.

I think this is an immensely important election. 2000 turns out to have been one of those historical "hinges", in that the absolutely worst candidate to deal with 9/11 and its aftermath was elected. Ur, make that appointed by the Supreme Court.

This one, we have a chance to mitigate that damage and I feel it slipping away.

On the bright side, with global warming, maybe our banana republic will actually grow more bananas now.

I am starting to wonder if the extraordinarily beautiful fall leaves this year will still be on the trees at Christmas here.

Brian
I think this is just more evidence of the pundit class being wrong as usual.

The one thing we know for sure is the national polls are meaningless. It would be interesting to look at the Iowa Caucus winners in relationship to who was ahead in the national polls prior.
I think the corpulent media has a stake in the Plunger's campaign..so they cling to the national polls because that is all he has.
To know the Plunger is to not like him.

I still think the race will end up being
Thompson (or McCain) v Edwards

Romney v Edwards. Thompson doesn't have a snow ball's chance

Can give you a partial answer for Iowa. Dean at 23% and Kerry with a robust 4%.

And I think your prediction sounds wise. Hillary will flame out and, sadly, it may be too early for a black nominee (although I hope, there).

Will be interesting to see how Ron Paul does in the first 2. I have seen zero McCain bumperstickers, but lots of signs and stickers for Ron Paul, who is their protest vote.

Dog I think Paul's support is hollow. How many of those people will get their ass out of the sofa to go caucus or vote is anyone's guess. Not many I think.

You know, I would be fine with Romney, Thompson or McCain on the GOP side. Because they would not be that bad and actually do have a chance of being elected.

Think Edwards would make a great nominee, and someone who would attract crossover vote. He should have been the nominee last time.

Brian: But you miss the part about the protest vote.

And some of his support is so fervent they've been labelled "Paultards."

Pauls showing will be dismal when it comes to the actual votes, make my words!

Consider them marked.

Colorado Bob can be found here:

http://coloradobob1.newsvine.com/

yo soy Horsedooty!

kgc...The pundits on MSM seem so wrong so much of the time that I assume it's deliberate.

Thanks, horse, for the vine link to Bob.

tt

Interesting comments in a meeting at work yesterday. My boss was gung ho for Hillary, then she commented that her husband would never vote for sombody named Obama. Other people were very anti Hillary, and thought Paul was just a novelity. Most thought it was going to be a Hillary Rudi matchup. Not scientific but just some opinions.

Just our luck, we and our successors get to live in the political dark ages. Do you think a Renaissance will at some point follow, or are we Romans?

Poor Joan Kennedy, my heart goes out to her.

Maybe our society should pay teachers what pundits make and pay pundits and buckrakers what the working class makes. The second would be a favor to them, in the event any of the buckrakers actually cares about getting it right.

Which, as Harbor pointed out, is doubtful.

I suspect having a Columbia J school degree -- which makes you a more palatable hire to MSM organs -- removes you that much further from the truth on the street.

Because I often think the punditocracy is interviewing each other, and has a cultural disconnect with the average voter/citizen.

Brian: what's up with Joan Kennedy?

dog she is drunk again and entered rehab

yo soy Horsedooty!

Apparently she's gone back into rehap, not sure if it was her choice or her kids had her committed.

dog she is drunk again and entered rehab

yo soy Horsedooty!

Under "Links" on the left of this page is "Blogroll". It has links to all the known crawdad blogs. If you have one and it isn't on the list, let Craig know and he will add it.

Here is the historical info on the Iowa Caucus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
Only Carter in 80 and Clinton in 96 have gone on to the presidency

On the new book Boom what Rudd was saying is that he has since become a pacifist and regrets the violence of his younger years and the fact that they attacked Humphrey for not being "pure" enough since their lack of support may have caused him the election.

Stop in on my blog. If you don't want the Brokaw book there are two other books available on the pivotal year 1968

http://jdurward.blogspot.com

So Iowa can recognize a sitting president as an eventual nominee. Period.

Great deduction skills there.

WHY has Iowa maintained its first in the nation status so long? Come on people. Other states have great pie, coffee shops and gas stations too.

And they have PRIMARIES, not caucuses.

Jeez. You could get a better result caucusing on a Carnival Cruise.

"Because I often think the punditocracy is interviewing each other, and has a cultural disconnect with the average voter/citizen."

Wow dog..... you hit the nail on the head with that statement....

I watched Tweety last night and almost pissed my pants from laughing at him during the end of the show......
he was railing about the fact that the media is blamed for negative coverage of Gore's 2000 campaign.....
said that Gore did it to himself by claiming to have invented the internet and various other things..... said the media was after clarity and truth......
if he honestly believes that BS, he's a bigger fool than Bozo the Clown......

dog to quote Tevia "Tradition"

Dog,

You're tougher on Iowa than I meant to be. I was just picking on the pundits, who were giving glory status to the Iowa Democratic caucus for picking the eventual loser in the general election.

Also, thanks for your kind words earlier. I've thought about it for a few hours, and while it's fashionable today, I'm pretty sure you're the first person who has ever verbally thanked me for my service. I had a few guys buy me drinks in a bar on Staten Island back in 1969, so I'm sure they were saying thank you, they just didn't verbalize it.

Jamie,

You're right about Clinton in '96. I omitted him because he was the incumbent, but that wasn't being fair to Iowa, since I also tied them to President Carter's losing bid in '80.

"that Gore did it to himself by claiming to have invented the internet and various other things" It would be a major help if they actually reported anything in depth and with context. I am so sick of repetition ad nauseum of talking points and tip of the iceberg reporting.

I can understand about the necessity of filling air time, meeting deadlines, programming a fast moving show, and needing to convey what the average listener will find of interest, but there has to be a way to get some in depth information thrown at the host by a researcher if only to keep the host from sounding like an idiot (see picture of pundit in dictionary next to word idiot)

Bowman,

As I get caught up on everyone's posts, I noticed you mentioned snow in western MA...Is Bromley Mountain still open to skiing in VT? That mountain was always my favorite place to ski at...

Re the gushing, school girl, fawning of female appointees: A guy called in to Stephanie and said it was easy to understand. Without the Bush appointment, most of these women would be lucky to work in a 3rd rate ambulance chasing attorney's office. They are grateful for the status and income that would have eluded them otherwise.

speaking of gushing and fawning another big fat liar for Shrubco admits it
http://www.firedoglake.com/2007/11/20/shorter-mcclellan-i-was-a-paid-liar-for-bush/

NYTimes News Alert:

Supreme Court to Hear Second Amendment Case

The Supreme Court has agreed to decide whether the District of Columbia can ban handguns, a case that bears directly on whether the Second Amendment protects an individual right to
"keep and bear arms."

=====
Wow.

You can't keep and bear arms in my town.
-Wyatt Earp
(Limp-wristed liberal pinko commie)

Ness Flash: US Supreme Court to add the following words to the Bill of Rights "...except in time of a war against terrorism."

Craig, you forgot to mention that Kucinich is now running 5th in N.H., only 1 pt. behind Richardson and 4 pts. behind Edwards. That is remarkable, given the lack of publicity given his campaign by the MSM, including you.

So, The Witch's slip is beginning to show in New Hampshire! As Democ-rat party contributor and convicted felon Martha Stewart says, THAT'S A GOOD THING!

So, The Witch is putting on commercials stating that the "Republican Attack Machine" is ganging up on her. Since when did Dodd, Beiden, Edwards and Obama turn Republican. Does the Republican Party now control the Senate?

If there's an "attack machine" at all it's the union racketeer financed Democ-rat slime machine! Read any newspaper published by the unions and you'll see it at work. Union members vote anywhere from 35-45% Republican yet all their dues money is used, in effect, to attack the candidates this large minority supports. THAT's a machine indeed!