Seizing on the gap in Barack Obama’s health insurance plan, Hillary Rodham Clinton has found an issue that could stick with liberal Democrats who are weighing their options in the party’s presidential nomination race.

The Obama camp handed Clinton an opportunity with a television ad now running in New Hampshire that claims his plan would “cover everyone.” Late this morning Clinton’s campaign manager, Patty Solis-Doyle, got on the phone with reporters to say the Obama ad is "is demonstrably false and it should be taken off the air." She has a point.

Ever since proposing his health insurance plan, Obama has struggled to define its reach, once calling it “virtually universal.” But it does stop short of Clinton’s plan (she claims Obama's proposal would leave 15 million Americans uninsured). And Obama saying in an ad that his blueprint “covers everyone” provides Clinton an opening to keep after him.

Click below to see the ad: 

 

Craig on "Hardball with Chris Matthews"
Friday (11/30) MSNBC 5:40 / 7:40 PM ET

. . . and on NBC "Today Show"
Saturday (12/1) NBC 7:00 AM ET
(times vary, check local listings)

 

Rudy Giuliani offers a good enough excuse for the weird accounting practices for his security detail’s travel with him while he was New York mayor. He says the police department was so slow in paying its expenses that City Hall picked up the tab and was reimbursed later.

But the excuse is not good enough to repair the potential damage to his bid for the Republican presidential nomination. That’s because what Giuliani isn’t denying is that these expenses involved personal trips with his then-mistress, Judith Nathan (who is now his wife). The trouble is that he was married to someone else at the time. This means that the flurry of news reports about these matters are highlighting the period in his life when he was conducting an adulterous affair. And the strange expensing of those trips gives the impression that the mayor’s office was trying to keep them out of public view.

There are still plenty of GOP voters outside New York who have not heard the sordid details about Giuliani’s personal life in those days (which, by the way, is the reason that his children barely speak to him). And stories like this, even if you accept his explanations for how the expenses were handled, only serve to introduce the dirty details to voters around the country.

 

The most telling sign of Mike Huckabee’s rising fortunes in the Republican presidential contest is how party rival Mitt Romney is stepping up the attacks on the former Arkansas governor who is coming on strong for the all-important Iowa caucuses.

After going after Huckabee on immigration in Wednesday night’s GOP debate, Romney peppered his television interviews today with jabs at Huckabee’s ethics. "I know there were a number of ethical charges and actual fines and violations," the former Massachusetts governor told MSNBC. "That's a little reminiscent of the Clinton years."

Huckabee’s Republican foes have long hinted they had built meaty files on ethical questions about his Arkansas political career -- and now it looks like Romney is ready to unload. Numerous complaints were filed against Huckabee over the years, including his use of a nonprofit organization to subsidize his income and his destruction of state computer files as he left the governor’s office.

How Huckabee responds in coming days will test whether he can handle the fray. No wonder he had his pal Chuck Norris, the martial arts film star, at his side after last night’s debate.

 

Mike Huckabee won the Republican presidential debate on Wednesday night largely because his distracted rivals failed to seize enough opportunities to undercut the former Arkansas governor’s increasing momentum.

While Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney tried to one-up each other with personal insults they almost forgot that Huckabee is the candidate on the move. As the GOP field gathered in St. Petersburg, Fla., for the debate aired on CNN they were greeted by the news of a just-released Rasmussen Reports survey showing Huckabee edging ahead for the crucial Iowa caucuses to be held on Jan. 3.

Now on CQ Politics: Debate Mosts and Bests

Huckabee faced few tough questions and remarkably few challenges from rivals in the debate. Only Romney directly took him on, criticizing his support as governor for scholarship opportunities to the children of illegal immigrants -- but Huckabee hardly broke a sweat countering the charge. 

Sprinkling his performance with a trademark humor that has helped spur his rise in the Republican race, Huckabee seemed to be having more fun than anyone else on stage. At one point, when asked if Jesus would support the death penalty, the Baptist preacher neatly dodged the question by saying, "Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office."

Despite expectations that other candidates would tackle Huckabee, he was mostly left alone. This might not have been an accident. Top tier Republicans such as Giuliani and Romney are fearful of antagonizing Huckabee’s following among religious conservatives by coming down too hard on him. But that is just how Huckabee might wiggle out of their grasp – as he did in the debate and as he appears to be doing in Iowa.

 

Forget Oprah and Streisand. When it comes to swinging the vote in all-important Iowa, the endorsement that could make all the difference for Democratic presidential hopefuls is Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts. And so far the party icon is keeping mum.

Watching Kennedy helicopter all over Iowa for his home state’s junior senator, John Kerry, in the closing days of the 2004 caucuses you could feel the tide rising for the eventual Democratic nominee as crowds flocked to see the fired-up Kennedy deliver stem winders that undoubtedly helped Kerry win the vote a few days later. Kennedy also clinched the Iowa title for Al Gore in 2000, almost single-handedly putting a stop to the momentum for former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley.

Kennedy must be struggling this time around. Democratic contender Barack Obama’s “pass-the-torch” appeal seems a natural for the Kennedy legacy. But Hillary Rodham Clinton is his pal, going back to their time together walking the plank for health care reform. (And this is where Obama might have made a mistake by not proposing a truly universal health insurance plan -- as Clinton did -- that would appeal to Kennedy.)

A Kennedy endorsement of Obama could nail it for the Illinois senator. If Kennedy leans toward Clinton, you can bet the New York senator would love to have him announce his support next month on the same weekend as Oprah Winfrey stumps for Obama.

 

The Clinton instinct for the jugular is fully on display these days. Since their time in Arkansas, Bill and Hillary Clinton have never shied away from pouncing on a rival. And now they are rolling out the heavy artillery against Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential race.

Sen. Clinton seizes every opportunity to belittle Obama or respond in kind to his every move. When news surfaced this week that Oprah Winfrey would stump for Obama, the Clinton camp wasted no time getting Barbra Streisand to endorse. Any negative news item about Obama finds its way into the latest email missive from the Clinton campaign to reporters. Attack ads on television are probably just around the corner.

There is the possibility of a voter backlash against Clinton’s aggressiveness, but the biggest danger for her is how the all-consuming feud with Obama threatens to sideline John Edwards.

The last thing Clinton needs is for the anything-but-Hillary vote to settle on a single candidate like Obama. Maybe the Clintons need to take some shots at Edwards to remind voters that he is there -- and divide her opposition.

Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams" MSNBC (11/27)
Listen Here for audio / Clips by Mad Mustard

 

Just two days after stumping in South Carolina for Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, famed TV wrestler Ric Flair showed the underdog politician how to take down a stronger foe: Punch him in the groin.

Huckabee might shun such a low blow against his GOP frontrunners, but there could be a lesson for the former Arkansas governor in the World Wrestling Entertainment match broadcast on Monday night. Flair, a 16-time world champion rallied in the closing minutes to beat the current WWE champion, a much younger Randy Orton. And it was the crushing blow to Orton’s private parts that did the job.

Seriously, Huckabee needs to fight back with his own bit of flair. The Republican hierarchy is coming after him, worried that his surprising strength for Iowa’s kickoff nominating contest threatens to undermine party leaders Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.  GOP-friendly columnist Bob Novak echoed such sentiment in a column this week entitled, “The False Conservative.”

For starters, Huckabee might want to see if his pal Flair could pay a little visit to Novak.

 

Craig on "Live with Dan Abrams"
Tuesday (11/27) MSNBC 9:00 PM ET

 

Watching Oprah Winfrey use her television show on Monday as a platform to flak her production company’s latest movie, viewers could witness the synergistic power of her media machine.

 “It's a stand-up-and-cheer kind of thing,” Winfrey said of The Great Debaters, the film she produced and will release in theaters on Christmas Day. To make sure her TV studio audience would echo her sentiments, Winfrey had arranged a private showing of the movie before the taping.

Winfrey then brought the film’s star and director, Denzel Washington, on set for a mutual love fest not unlike her segments with Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate she endorsed and plans to stump with next month in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

If Obama became president, Oprah could always produce the film of his life – which could star Denzel. And if so, her TV show fans would surely hear all about it.

MANCHESTER, N.H. – Presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani’s bus tour around New Hampshire over the weekend featured two uninvited groups at most stops -- Supporters of the former New York mayor’s Republican rival Ron Paul and those backing Democratic candidate Dennis Kucinich.

The Paul and Kucinich fans made little noise at Giuliani’s events but standing together they aggressively displayed their campaign signs for the news cameras following him. The sight of the persistent Paul-Kucinich contingent suggests an intriguing combination for a third-party ticket – and one that Kucinich himself did not rule out when asked about joining forces with Paul during a campaign stop last week at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.

“I hear that a lot, but I haven’t really thought about it,” the Ohio congressman said of talk about running with his House colleague from Texas. “I like Ron Paul. He's a real patriot. He and I will be working together in a lot of circumstances.”

Kucinich added that he is not a fierce partisan for the Democratic Party. "I don't buy into that stuff," he said. And he noted that in many lopsided House votes he and Paul often stand together against their parties – sometimes by themselves. “Kucinich-Paul. You’ll find that on more than a few roll calls.”

Paul dismisses talk about reviving his 1988 stint as presidential standard bearer for the Libertarian Party, which is set to choose a nominee in May. But if the party nominations are settled by February and the two lose their current bids, that would leave plenty of time for a third way.

While Kucinich’s pro-government philosophy and Paul’s libertarian credo might not mix at all levels, they are both passionately against the war in Iraq and dedicated to restoring congressional power under the Constitution. Running together in an independent effort would garner a lot more attention than continuing their party bids long after others have locked up the nominations.

 

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Monday (11/26) MSNBC 8:30 PM ET

 

BOW, N.H. -- Watching Mitt Romney in action you can see one reason why the former Massachusetts governor is ahead in early-voting states while lagging behind in nationwide surveys of the Republican presidential nomination race. He is exceptionally skilled at the retail campaigning that dominates the battle for states like New Hampshire, but has not yet found a forum where those abilities shine for a national audience.

 

Deconstructing the Romney town hall meeting -- intimate gatherings that are standard fare in New Hampshire campaigning -- begins with his impeccable timing. He generally arrives on time and opens with a fast-paced stump address that runs about 20 minutes and yet covers a lot of ground. Then the candidate takes questions for about 40 minutes, never allowing himself more than 3-4 minutes per answer (unlike others in both parties who tend to frustrate their crowds with long answers that prevent more questions). That leaves room for about 10-12 questions, many more than most candidates manage to field in such a short time.

 

In a move that more campaigns should borrow, Romney’s aides never let the questioners actually hold the wireless microphones that they scurry around to them – a clever psychological trick that mostly discourages lengthy speeches disguised as questions.

 

After the official session ends (usually at the stroke of exactly one hour), Romney hangs around for about 15 minutes of chatting and photographing with those in the audience who want more. And those who have had enough can leave.

 

But Romney’s success in these venues goes beyond timing. He exudes energy. Despite making his fifth campaign appearance of the day at the Bow Community Center on Saturday night (with more to come that evening), Romney gave the impression that he had just started his day. “People ask why I don’t get tired,” he said. “I actually get energy from the people I meet. Sometimes I can’t fall sleep at night because I’m so wound up.”

 

With almost scientific precision, Romney drops in a laugh line about every 7-10 minutes. Some candidates on both sides of the political aisle do not generate a single humorous moment in events that last twice as long. Romney’s jokes are not knee slappers, but they generally provide some welcome relief from the pressing issues being discussed.

 

Perhaps most importantly, Romney does not get bogged down in specifics. He provides enough details to give his crowd an essence of substance, but never so much that his listeners walk away feeling they deserve college credit for sitting through it.

 

In the past three weeks I have seen all of the major Democratic and Republican candidates on the trail in Iowa or New Hampshire (or both) and I hereby award Romney the first-ever "Trail Mix Stump Award" -- for not wearing out his audiences and still giving them an earnest and reasonably comprehensive overview of his message with more than a few chuckles along the way.

 

NASHUA, N.H. – While crisscrossing New Hampshire and nearly tripping over each other during simultaneous campaign swings this weekend, Republican presidential nomination foes Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney provoked headlines by trading barbs over government spending. But in what could be a more significant development for the general election they found plenty of common ground when it came to blasting Democrats on taxes.

“All of the Democrats are promising to raise taxes and I can guarantee you this much -- that it is one promise they will keep,” Giuliani told supporters at a rally in downtown Manchester on Saturday.

An hour later at a town hall meeting about 20 miles from where the former New York mayor spoke, Romney also tore into Democratic taxing and spending plans, predicting “a left turn toward socialism” if their campaign proposals become law. “All they know how to do is take more of your money and try to solve all of your problems,” the former Massachusetts governor said.

Democratic partisans might scoff at this GOP retread of the tax-and-spend mantra that Ronald Reagan popularized against them nearly 30 years ago, but it is becoming increasingly clear in the 2008 Republican nomination campaign that the tax script is not limited to rallying conservative primary voters.

Republicans like Giuliani and Romney seem to be honing a broad and potentially lethal tax message that will still be around next November. And Democratic candidates, eager to attract their party’s liberal primary voters, are doing plenty to offer a target, calling for various types of tax hikes plus rollbacks of President George W. Bush’s tax cuts to pay for new spending programs.

Sure, the Democrats will argue that their proposed tax increases are only aimed at the wealthy but that puts them in the unenviable position of stuggling through often complicated explanations that can get lost in the sound bite competition of a general election campaign. And if the Iraq War continues to recede from the front burner, mainstream voters might again hunger for domestic staples such as Reagan’s tax-cut left overs.

 

BRISTOL, N.H. -- While handling firearms at a gun shop, Fred Thompson verbally took aim at Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani on Friday.

“He simply supported just about every gun control legislation that came down the pike,” the former Tennessee senator said of the former New York mayor. “I saw he was at bill signing ceremonies with (New York Sen.) Chuck Schumer and President Clinton and others for gun control legislation over the years. Of course, he's not as outspoken about it any more.”

A Giuliani’s spokesperson avoided a direct response on the gun control issue, instead noting that as a TV actor portraying a prosecutor on NBC’s “Law and Order,” Thompson only “played the role Rudy Giuliani actually lived” (as a former federal prosecutor in New York).

Thompson and Giuliani have traded jabs for weeks over hot buttons such as immigration, abortion, and guns, but so far it is failed to produce polling gains for Thompson. Still, the cumulative effect of several GOP candidates blasting away at Giuliani’s liberal record could explain why he cannot duplicate his nationwide lead in surveys of the early-voting states – where voters are paying much closer attention.

Standing underneath a stuffed deer head at Skip's Gun & Sport Shop, Thompson did his best to boost his latest poll numbers in the state – which, at  4 percent in a University of New Hampshire survey, did not even climb above the margin of error.

"Some of my opponents have bad records or no records. I have a solid record,'' Thompson said as he munched on a bowl of moose chili.

 

DURHAM, N.H. -- Unlike the big-league presidential candidates who march into their campaign events with rock music blaring over the loudspeakers, Dennis Kucinich wanders into a room almost unnoticed, avoids the podium, waves off attempts to pin a microphone to his suit jacket and just starts talking without any flowery introduction by a local politician trying to curry favor.

With his opening remarks before taking questions, the Democratic White House hopeful and Ohio congressman further distinguishes himself from better known rivals, saying things they would not dare to say.

“We are losing our democracy to lies,” Kucinich told about 70 students at the University of New Hampshire on Wednesday. Then he launched into a 15-minute defense of the House resolution that he introduced to impeach Vice President Dick Cheney.

Later, Kucinich previewed his 300-page resolution to impeach President George W. Bush – partly based on his belief that the administration plans to attack Iran in what Kucinich calls a “war crime in motion.”

Kucinich blasted his own party’s congressional leaders for ignoring his proposals. “If Democrats really stood for the Constitution, we could have impeached the vice president,” he said.

Whether or not you agree with anything Kucinich says, he is a refreshing change from the poll-tested and carefully calibrated stump speeches usually heard on the campaign trail. And better yet, throughout Kucinich’s hour-long appearance, his only musical accompaniment was the ringtone of a student’s cell phone.

 

Craig on "Kudlow and Company"
Friday (11/23) CNBC 7:45 PM ET

 

Craig on MSNBC "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Listen Here for audio version (clips by Mad Mustard)

 

CONCORD, N.H. -- The earliest-ever New Hampshire presidential primary is now for certain. But the wackiest-ever campaign calendar still threatens to diminish the Granite State's first-in-the-nation status.

New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner's announcement late Wednesday setting Jan 8 for the state's primary balloting allows only five days of media coverage following Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses. That makes it even more likely that Iowa's choices in the nomination races for both political parties could dramatically influence what happens in New Hampshire. Still, the next round of voting after New Hampshire is likely to come a full week later, keeping plenty of focus on the outcome.

IMPACT ON GOP FIELD: Former New York mayor and national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani could be a big loser with this schedule if a viable contender such as Mitt Romney wins Iowa. The former Massachusetts governor already has somewhat of a home state advantage in New Hampshire and a Romney win in Iowa, where he has led polls for months, could augment that advantage. Bottom Line: Giuliani either must win Iowa or hope that the nod goes to someone less threatening in New Hampshire, such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

IMPACT ON DEMOCRATIC FIELD: The compressed Iowa-New Hampshire voting schedule puts more pressure on HIllary Rodham Clinton to prevent an early breakout among her rivals. At this juncture the New York senator is most worried about Barack Obama's rising support in Iowa. Bottom Line: A Obama win in Iowa could boost the Illinois senator's fortunes in New Hampshire and scramble Clinton's hopes to maintain her frontrunner status.

More on CQ Politics

 

Craig on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann"
Wednesday (11/21) MSNBC 8:30 PM ET

.

MANCHESTER, NH -- Call it Oprah Envy. When Barack Obama let slip the news that Oprah Winfrey plans to stump in Iowa for his Democratic presidential campaign, the Illinois senator's frustrated audience of New Hampshire supporters howled for the Chicago-based television talk show queen to come to their state too. “We’ll talk about it,” the Illinois senator said. “We’ll get her up here.”

Taking a back seat to Iowa for Oprah’s first campaign swing is not the only sign that New Hampshire is losing ground to the Hawkeye State in presidential politics. Candidates in both parties are spending more time these days battling for Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses on Jan. 3.

New Hampshire has not helped its cause by playing games with the calendar, still not settling on a date for its first-in-the-nation primary. Ever since Iowa made its date official that seemed to focus the attention of the campaigns, leaving the Granite State behind.

When candidates look at recent history, they see that New Hampshire voters tend to follow what Iowa does, so they are arranging their schedules to reflect that. And, apparently, so is Oprah.

LACONIA, N.H. -- Undeterred by New Hampshire’s first snow of the season, Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama on Tuesday night had no trouble turning up the heat against rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Earlier in the day, while campaigning in Iowa, Clinton scoffed at Obama’s recent claim that spending four years in Southeast Asia as a boy had given him a greater understanding of foreign policy. “Voters will judge whether living in a foreign country at the age of 10 prepares one to face the big, complex international challenges the next president will face,” the New York senator said. “I think we need a president with more experience than that.”

Obama responded in kind, noting that “one of my opponents” had belittled his foreign policy experience, while touting her many meetings with international leaders. “Which leader advised you to vote for the war in Iraq,” the Illinois senator said.

The line, which drew nervous laughter and some applause, made for a concise retort well crafted as a television news sound bite and well aimed at Clinton’s weakness for having voted to authorize the invasion of Iraq. But Obama offered no defense of his own expertise on international relations, except to say several times during his 90 minute appearance that the country needs his brand of fresh thinking instead of the insider culture that politicians like Clinton represent.

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- There was no "boxers or briefs" moment when high school students asked Barack Obama today to talk about his human side. The Democratic presidential contender's way of identifying with kids is a far cry from Bill Clinton, who tried to be hip with a group of students in the 1992 campaign by talking about his underwear. 

Instead, Obama dove right into his own drug use as a teenager. And, also unlike Clinton, he did not play it cute by saying he "didn't inhale." Instead, the Illinois senator portrayed himself as a classic slacker when growing up in Hawaii.

"I will confess to you that I was kind of a goof off in high school," Obama told students at Manchester Central High School. "I made some bad decisions … got into drinking and experimenting with drugs. There was a whole stretch of time where I didn’t apply myself. It wasn’t until I got out of high school and went to college that I started realizing, man, I wasted a lot of time,"

Obama wrote about those experiences in his memoir, "Dreams from My Father," revealing that he mostly smoked marijuana but sometimes snorted cocaine. Still, it was smart to go ahead and publicly talk about it now so that he has the option to dodge future questions by saying it's an old story, asked and answered.

  

With the clock ticking to early January’s kickoff for the 2008 presidential race in Iowa and New Hampshire, new polls show that the national frontrunners for both parties face deadly problems at the starting gate. Democratic contender Hillary Rodham Clinton and GOP hopeful Rudy Giuliani enjoy commanding leads in nationwide surveys, but that could change overnight if they stumble early on.

Iowa Democrats are keeping Clinton’s party rivals in the game. Illinois senator Barack Obama edged four percentage points ahead of the New York senator in the latest ABC News/Washington Post survey (a statistical tie, considering the margin of error). Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards again finds himself in third place after holding the lead in Iowa earlier this year.

Giuliani fell to third place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire Republicans (which is where the former New York mayor also placed in a recent Iowa poll). Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the GOP pack in both states, with Arizona Sen. John McCain at second place in New Hampshire and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee just behind Romney in Iowa. 

Iowa and New Hampshire voters have a way of ignoring national trends and trusting their own judgment based upon the unusually close encounters they experience with presidential candidates. These early-voting states see the hopefuls so often and in such intimate settings that they almost serve as the country’s screening committee for hiring White House occupants -- and at this juncture they appear ready to scramble the talent pool.

 

It was only a matter of time before Barack Obama yelled at somebody. The Democratic presidential contender often seems impatient, even testy, with rambling and challenging questioners at his town hall meetings. To circumvent long-winded queries, the Illinois senator opens many of these sessions admonishing the audience to remember that “I’m the only one who gets to give a speech.”

Obama finally erupted in Iowa on Sunday, getting into a spat over national security and illegal immigration with a 63-year-old woman (Click screen below for a sample).

Source: MSNBC

 

For his first television advertisement, Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee has come up with a "tough" sell that gets a laugh, using Hollywood macho man Chuck Norris to deliver the former Arkansas governor’s pro-gun, anti-tax message. Huckabee also appears on screen several times during the 60-second spot paying tongue-in-cheek homage to the martial arts star.

"Chuck Norris doesn't endorse, he tells America how it's gonna be," Huckabee says in the ad.

Set to begin airing tomorrow in Iowa -- where Huckabee is gaining strength -- the spot manages to be a lot more entertaining than most political commercials. "There's no chin behind Chuck Norris' beard, only another fist," Huckabee says.

Having some fun in his first advertisement is just what you’d expect from Huckabee. He is one of the few candidates in this race who truly seems to be enjoying himself on the campaign trail. And that also happens to be smart politics -- if the candidate isn't having fun, nobody else will.

(Click screen below to see the ad.)

Source: Huckabee for President, Inc.

 

Trail Mix journeys to and through New Hampshire this week -- yes, that's right, for Thanksgiving! Since this earlier-than-ever presidential campaign is destined to ruin Christmas and New Year's for political junkies, why not sacrifice Turkey Day as well.

What questions need to be asked of voters and candidates on the road this week in New Hampshire? Trail Mixers (whose blog urls are now posted under Blogroll in the sidebar) are welcome to make suggestions in comments. To get things started, take a look at today's NH-focused Must Reads and Big Number (also clickable, as always, in the sidebar under Links).

Today, the Trail Mix jet heads back to DC from Arizona's perfect November climate (if this is what the Northeast will feel like after global warming, BRING IT ON).

"She's Back" -- a MadMustard video

When you’re getting kicked in the rear, at least you know you’re in front. And once again that is precisely where Hillary Rodham Clinton was positioned in a Democratic presidential debate.

The difference between Thursday's face-off in Las Vegas and recent debates showcasing Clinton’s rivals attacking the New York senator is that this time she directly fought back and scored a technical knockout against her main foes, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Debate "Mosts and Bests" from CQ Politics

Portraying the intra-party attacks from Obama and Edwards as “throwing mud” taken “right out of the Republican playbook,” Clinton kept her counter-charges focused on tough criticism of their records. The most telling sign that Clinton’s push-back worked is that most of the contentious moments came early in the debate. Obama and Edwards stood down soon after she returned fire.

Despite complaining about the barbs aimed at her, Clinton’s strongest line of the night -- which she also uses on the stump -- demonstrated that she knows what a good sign it is for her. "People are not attacking me because I'm a woman, they're attacking me because I'm ahead."

Craig on "Hardball with Chris Matthews"
Friday (11/16) MSNBC 5:45 / 7:45 PM ET

 .. and on NBC "Today Show"
Saturday (11/17) NBC 7:00 AM ET
(times vary, check local listings)

 

The 2008 presidential campaign can now claim its first policy victim. Illegal immigrants in New York will not be getting drivers licenses.

On the eve of tonight’s Democratic debate, Hillary Rodham Clinton made sure to clean up the mess she made two weeks ago in the last showdown with her party rivals. The New York senator announced firm opposition to the licensing idea that seemed to confuse her so much in the last debate.

Even New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, who had first proposed the licenses as a way to bring illegal immigrants "out of the shadows," has abandoned his plan. That certainly made it easier for Clinton to back out.

While under attack for waffling the issue, there is a bit of topsy-turvy consistency to Clinton’s handling of the matter. First, she supported Spitzer when he was for it -- and then she supported him when he was against it.

 

Break out the boxing metaphors -- there could be a knockout in Las Vegas tonight. Or, at least a few down-for-the-count moments as the Democratic presidential contenders debate on CNN at a time when each needs a big night.

 

Hillary Rodham Clinton must decide whether to start throwing punches and dump the above-it-all demeanor that has served her well until recently. Bet on the New York senator taking a few shots at her rivals.

 

It's not that Clinton's frontrunner status for her party's nomination is in crisis. Instead, the need to fight back will probably come from a more emotional place. Clinton is bound to be getting weary of listening to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's insinuations that she is acting like a Republican. And Clinton has probably had enough of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards' implications that she is corrupt.

 

Still, Clinton might be wise to keep up the pragmatic frontrunner routine and mostly stay above the fray. How she handles things tonight will say a lot about how much, if at all, her Democratic foes truly worry her.

 

The Democratic presidential debate at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas airs tonight on CNN at 8:00 p.m. eastern time. 

 

Immigration roils again in the Republican presidential race. And it is not surprising that the man wielding the ultimate GOP wedge is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who faces a national frontrunner he cannot seem to overcome in the polls -- former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani -- and a sudden threat to his Iowa lead from a second-tier hopeful -- former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

On the stump in Iowa, Romney blasted his rivals for once backing tuition breaks to the children of illegal immigrants. "Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states is simply not fair and not right," Romney said.

Immigration looms as the number one issue in GOP politics largely because Giuliani's liberal record on the topic could be his Achilles heel with conservative Republicans who have so far shown some interest in his national security pitch. Perhaps the hardest hitting attack comes from the contender who is running almost exclusively on the immigration issue -- Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado.

In a new television advertisement, the Tancredo camp presents the ominous image of man in a shopping mall wearing a hooded sweatshirt and backpack -- and the frigtening sound of an explosion at the end. Suggesting that liberal immigration policies increase the chances of terrorist bombings, the ad's narrator says, "There are consequences to open borders beyond the 20 million aliens who have come to take our jobs."

You could tell something positive was happening for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at his events last week in Iowa. Aides to the Republican presidential contender were moving to larger venues at the last minute to accommodate unexpectedly large crowds.

In a telling contrast last Thursday Huckabee drew a larger audience at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls than GOP national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani attracted on the following day. Indeed, at the last minute the GIuliani team changed venues -- to a smaller room.

It turns out that Huckabee's momentum among Iowa’s Republican voters is more than anecdotal. A new CBS News/New York Times survey shows Huckabee closing in on longtime Iowa frontrunner Mitt Romney. Huckabee gets 21 percent to the former Massachusetts governor’s 27 percent. With a 5 percent margin of error, that is almost a statistical tie.

Giuliani came in third at 15 percent while all others were in single digits, but that might not be such bad news for the New York mayor. Huckabee lacks the money and campaign infrastructure to quickly leverage success in Iowa’s Jan. 3 caucuses.  Even in Iowa, some of Huckabee's supporters complain that his organization is ill-prepared to field phone calls, direct volunteers and manage other details that are so critical in caucus system.

A perceived Huckabee victory in the Hawkeye state would serve Giuliani’s interest in blocking the Romney challenge.  And for Huckabee, that could earn him serious consideration for running mate if Giuliani becomes the Republican nominee.

To the gang from Crawfordslist.com: Welcome to our new home. The technical issues at our old haunt on Network Solutions proved to be insurmountable and the fine folks at CQ Politics offered to serve us here. For commenting you might recognize the old Typekey system we once used in one of our former lives (or you can comment anonymously). Over time I will shape this blog into what we have been used to doing, but much to learn. -- Craig Crawford

Craig Crawford talks with MSNBC's Keith Olbermann about presidential politics. Listen Here for audio (clip by madmustard)

Finally, it is starting to become clear how the bizarre calendar of primaries and caucuses could be shaping up for both parties.

Thirty years of tradition appears likely to hold for Democrats, with Iowa’s first-in-the nation caucuses on Jan. 3 as the proving ground.

But Florida’s primary, with its renegade date of Jan. 29, will serve as the GOP’s main set-up event before the Feb. 5 primary onslaught that is expected to be a decisive day for both parties — at least if Rudy Giuliani, the leader in party presidential preference polls, gets his way.

The former New York City mayor is hoping to overcome possible losses in tiny early-voting states and ratify his front-runner status in Florida, just in time to retake command of the Republican race before “Tsunami Tuesday” — as political junkies refer to Feb. 5, when 20 or more states around the country will confer the lion’s share of nominating delegates on their favored candidates.

Although GOP national leaders cut Florida’s roster of convention delegates by half as punishment for leapfrogging their approved calendar for primaries and caucuses, the betting is that the winning presidential nominee will reverse that ruling. If the Giuliani strategy works and Florida turns the nominating race in his favor, it could give him a leg up in the nation’s biggest swing state for the general election.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Here’s a question not even worth asking John Edwards right now because he would not really answer it: Do you dislike Hillary Rodham Clinton enough to ultimately abandon your own race and endorse Barack Obama if it comes to that ?

While the Democratic presidential contender and former North Carolina senator would surely dodge such a query about his rivals, he revealingly answered a more benign version at a hotel press conference in Iowa last week. After bashing Clinton for several minutes he was asked to also say how he differs with Obama.

“The differences between Sen. Clinton and myself are bigger than they are with Sen. Obama,” Edwards said, going on to speak warmly about the Illinois senator who stands in his way as the main alternative to the New York senator who leads the pack.

There is no such warmth when Edwards speaks of Clinton — so much so that it is not unthinkable that a loss in Iowa, where the 2004 vice presidential nominee has put the bulk of his effort, might prompt him to endorse Obama well before the Feb. 5 multi-state primaries when Clinton hopes to clinch the nomination.

Then we would finally find out just how much Edwards dislikes her.

DES MOINES, Iowa — If a single phrase can turn around the Democratic presidential nomination race in pivotal Iowa, it might be this line from Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to 9,000 party activists on Saturday night: “When I’m your nominee, my opponent won’t be able to say that I supported this war in Iraq.”

Obama’s direct and obvious reference to Democratic frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton’s vote to authorize war delivered a potent political message to his party that had less to do with Iraq policy and much more about targeting what even troubles some who support the New York senator – her electability and GOP plans for a ferocious campaign against her.

In a somber and sometimes ominous-sounding speech after five other hopefuls, including Clinton, had made their case to Iowa’s Democratic leaders and grass-roots organizers, Obama was smart to remind them that when they set the table for this nomination battle on Jan. 3 they should think about how the Republicans will run against Clinton if she wins the party’s nod. He loaded up the speech with hard-hitting attacks on her, while taking care not to say her name.

As I traveled across Iowa for the past week chatting with many Democrats and Republicans at campaign events, it was abundantly clear that on both sides the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses will be a referendum on Sen. Clinton. Democrats are mindful of her baggage and, even if drawn to her, they are still toying with other options — while Republicans, who almost universally assume that she will be the Democratic standard bearer, are quite focused on finding the candidate best able to beat her.

Clinton’s speech on Saturday to the party’s Jefferson Jackson dinner was strong enough to hold steady in a tightening Iowa race, but not enough to stop Obama’s momentum or quell the recent spate of negative news coverage that threatens to undermine her. If Obama wins the caucuses, his speech will be remembered as the night he began to make it happen.

The shortness of time before Iowans vote could be Clinton’s best friend because until recently her rivals have kept fairly quiet about their complaints, allowing her to build a loyal following in the state. The worst thing for Obama about his powerful speech on Saturday is that he might have waited too long to give it.

DES MOINES, Iowa – Democratic presidential hopefuls have few major events left to reach big numbers of voters in the crucial state of Iowa — raising the stakes when the candidates collide on Saturday for a lightning round of 10-minute speeches before an expected audience of 9,000 at the Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner.

Much of the buzz, as usual, is about front-running candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton — especially whether the New York senator can do something in so little time to effectively counter her campaign’s longest stretch of bad news. Even though national polls show no impact from a faulty Oct. 30 debate performance and several missteps since, the Clinton camp is looking for a turnaround moment.

All of the candidates will be aiming to please this crowd of party activists, who can make a big difference in getting voters to go out in the cold to attend the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. But Clinton also needs a hit with the national news media.

Whether it is a result of the usual heightened scrutiny for a front-runner, or rather is pent-up dislike left over from the candidate’s White House years as first lady to President Bill Clinton, national news coverage and commentary about her suddenly turned quite harsh in the last two weeks. A boffo performance on Saturday might put an end to this episode of negativity — but given the historical friction between the Clintons and the media, there will be others.

AMES, Iowa – It is hard to tell whether or not Rudy Giuliani is ignoring Iowa. In one of his occasional campaign swings through the presidential kickoff state on Thursday, the Republican contender gave his standard stump speech with no specific references to a state that considers itself the kingmaker in White House politics.

The Giuliani camp insists that the GOP national frontrunner is competing in Iowa, citing an aggressive radio advertising campaign and frequent mailings to voters. But the trouble is that the way locals look at things, if a candidate does not personally obsess on them by spending lots of quality time in small groups then you might as well ignore them altogether.

Giuliani has gotten a reputation with Iowa political pros for ending up with the worst of both worlds – not doing enough to win and yet doing too much to write off a loss if it comes in the Jan. 3 caucuses. And a loss that counts could severely damage his image as the party’s frontrunner for the nomination.

Iowa voters seem to be echoing what the pros say. A new Zogby poll released Thursday showed Giuliani dropping to third place at just 11 percent support among the state’s likely Republican voters behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 31 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 15 percent.

BETTENDORF, Iowa – The policy offensive is on. Presidential candidates shower the campaign trail with detailed plans on every major issue, calibrating their proposals to appeal to the largest number of voters in their target demographics.

While dressed up as policy, these things are usually more about politics.

Iowa is now a dumping ground for this rush to seem bold and specific to targeted voters. On Thursday, Democratic contender Barack Obama unleashed a thick packet of proposals for middle-class tax cuts and credits, plus guaranteed sick days for workers and the reform of bankruptcy laws. Earlier this week, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton made Iowa her forum for a comprehensive renewable energy plan. Republican Mike Huckabee proposed more arts and music programs in public schools during an education town hall on Thursday.

And the list goes on. It has become a given in presidential campaigns that this helps voters learn about how the candidates will govern on the big issues of the day. But there are a couple of major problems with that assumption.

CEDAR FALLS, Iowa -- No one in the presidential race should be sorrier than Mike Huckabee to see two of his Republican presidential rivals -- former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain -- pick up key endorsements on Wednesday from religious conservatives, but he took care not to show any concern.

“I congratulate them both,” the Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor said of the news that  Giuliani had picked up the support of televangelist Pat Robertson while McCain won the backing of Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who gained a small religious following before recently ending his own 2008 bid.

Huckabee has reason not to panic. Evangelical voters in Iowa are warming to the affable and skilled campaigner. And as he proved on Wednesday at a two-hour forum on education policy at the University of North Iowa, his years as a governor left him well-versed on the details of issues other than the hot social buttons that often drive expert evaluations of his candidacy.

Still, the evangelical vote could be the main reason Huckabee has a chance for a surprise showing in Iowa’s kickoff caucuses. And Wednesday’s endorsements seem not to bother him too much.

“If I had to choose between them and their supporters, I choose their supporters,” Huckabee said. “I’d rather have both, obviously, but I will get their supporters.”

IOWA CITY, Iowa – It is not often that presidential candidates devote a campaign advertisement to boasting about how they raised the money to help pay for the ad. But that is what maverick Republican Ron Paul is doing with a radio ad now airing in Iowa – and for good reason.

Paul’s Iowa ad touts the fact that the Texas congressman, who advocates immediately bringing the troops home from Iraq, has raised more money than any other White House contender from donors identified as affiliated with the military (according to a Houston Chronicle analysis). “If the troops support Ron Paul, shouldn’t you?” the ad concludes.

Paul’s fundraising took another giant leap this week when his campaign announced that 37,000 of his loyal fans had set a presidential campaign record for online fundraising on Monday by hauling in more than $4.2 million in 24 hours. That’s as much in one day that supposedly more serious candidates raise in a week, or even a month. It took three months for Arizona Sen. John McCain to raise $6 million for his GOP bid in the last quarter.

There is no question that Paul, who ran as the Libertarian Party nominee in 1988, is fast becoming a major phenomenon in the 2008 race. Fueled by intensely devoted supporters who are skilled at new age campaign techniques made possible by the internet, the Paul parade is as close to a genuine grass-roots movement as there is in this election cycle.

Soon the voters in Republican caucuses and primaries will have a chance to validate the Paul phenomenon or send it packing. Iowa’s caucuses, the first-in-the-nation nomination balloting on Jan. 3, present a ripe opportunity for the cadres of well-organized Paulites, as they call themselves. An even better opportunity could come in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, not yet scheduled, where independent voters are allowed to vote on either party’s ballot and often make a difference in the outcome.

No matter what happens Paul has proven that a feisty market is out there for his brand of libertarian politics.

AMANA, Iowa - For a moment the raspy voice coming from inside the Festhalle Barn on this cold Tuesday afternoon sounded a lot like Bill Clinton’s trademark strained tones. But instead it was the hoarse sound of his wife and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton struggling with the harsh effects of spending a very cold day crisscrossing Iowa.

Taking questions from the crowd that had jammed into the unheated barn a few miles south of Cedar Rapids, the New York senator was ready for what has become an inevitable topic since her debate stumble last week. A sympathetic questioner brought up Clinton’s less-than-clear answers on whether to grant driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants, noting that a friend had recently been killed in an automobile accident by an unlicensed and uninsured driver who turned out to be an illegal immigrant. The woman suggested that such a story could be