Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – If Democrats lose the White House next year because Florida barely goes Republican in another general election, party chiefs in Iowa and New Hampshire could bear much of the blame. At least that seemed to be the consensus among 2,600 Florida Democrats over the weekend at their state convention.

One of the most popular campaign buttons for conventioneers meeting at Disney World depicted a map of Florida, the nation’s most populous swing state, looming over tiny Iowa and New Hampshire with the inscription, “Size DOES Matter.”

The fear is that Florida’s crucial independent voters are already showing more interest in Republican White House hopefuls, because Democratic candidates are not campaigning here in order to please party officials in Iowa and New Hampshire — hosts of the traditional first-in-the-nation nominating events — who are angered by the Sunshine State’s early primary on Jan. 29.

State polls show that since the campaign ban took effect, Democratic national front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton has lost her lead in the state over Republican Rudy Giuliani, who is aggressively campaigning in Florida. And a recent Quinnipiac University survey showed that 22 percent of the state’s independent voters say they are less likely to vote for a Democrat next November as a result of the snub.

“The average citizen in Florida can no longer see their candidates for president,” Florida Sen. Bill Nelson told the Democratic delegates, who frequently booed any mention of their party’s presidential field.

Not surprisingly, Republicans are enjoying the advantage of having the nation’s fourth largest state to themselves. “Unlike the Democrats, we are not boycotting Florida,” Giuliani said at a campaign stop in Orlando last week.