Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

Fred Thompson offers a stock response that resonates with many voters when addressing complaints that he was way too slow getting into the Republican presidential race. “People treat politicians sort of like the dentist: They don’t have anything to do with them until they have to,” the former Tennessee senator says.

Still, for someone so widely considered less than energetic as a politician, Thompson’s official announcement of his candidacy last week came so late when compared with his rivals that questions about his seriousness of purpose already present his biggest challenge.

The fate of Thompson’s latecomer strategy will go a long way toward settling whether or not it made any sense for the 2008 contenders to stage the longest pre-season in presidential campaign history. If he wins the 2008 GOP nomination, perhaps Labor Day in the year before a general election could again be the sensible starting gate for primary campaigns, instead of the end point that so many political junkies suggest.

Thompson’s official launch wasn’t too shabby for a candidate being written off as too little and too late. By announcing his bid on “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno,” the prosecutor-actor-politician upstaged his Republican foes, whose debate in New Hampshire earlier that night on cable television’s Fox News Channel drew less than half the audience that Thompson drew on NBC.

Even the debate’s moderator, Brit Hume, gave a nod to the competition by making the first question about Thompson, the only candidate who wasn’t there. Sen. John McCain of Arizona’s “maybe we’re up past his bedtime” was the put-down response that got the biggest laugh.

Thompson’s team even added a slight insult to the potential injury done to him by staying away from the debate, running his first television advertisement on Fox News just minutes before the debate started. This dodge-and-conquer strategy worked for one night, but the next few weeks will soon tell whether his splashy launch was little more than a wet firecracker.

The rationale for Thompson’s late entry is persuasive, although it could hurt his chances in early organizing states such as Iowa. His advisers, including veteran campaign guru Mary Matalin, insist there is plenty of time for him to get his message out. “This ‘too late’ talk is Washington nonsense,” she said.

Thompson aides say his star power limits any damage from his delayed launch. He is a familiar face to millions thanks to his roles in NBC’s “Law & Order” and movies such as “The Hunt for Red October.” While many voters might not know his name, Thompson’s aides predict that just recognizing his craggy face, Southern accent and down-home demeanor will earn him an interested hearing — something that many of the more established candidates are still struggling to attract.
Scratching the ‘Conservative Itch’

On style points, Thompson could quickly outshine the GOP field. His easygoing, spontaneous and accessible manner stands in contrast to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s scripted performances or former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s abrasive ways. But the Thompson camp knows that to make it all the way to the nomination he must use his friendly style to market an inspiring and substantive message on the issues.

“Fred is the scratch we need for the conservative itch,” says Matalin, who sees the rest of the field as not entirely satisfying the party’s base voters.

Thompson is soon planning to make a provocative and potentially risky play for conservatives by releasing a plan to overhaul Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The risk for a Republican on this front is that in the past Democrats have quite successfully attacked such talk as a dire threat to retirees and the poor. The Thompson team’s theory, however, is that showing the guts to talk tough about entitlements will dramatically impress conservatives, who grumble that the other leading contenders are too timid to effectively take on the Democrats on domestic issues. And it is true that few topics fire up social and economic conservatives as much as what they see as runaway spending for entitlements.

While he will also emphasize that he’s consistently to the right of front-runners Giuliani and Romney on social issues, Thompson’s advisers see his most promising approach as convincing base voters that he has the commanding stage presence and fortitude to beat the Democrats on their economic turf. They also believe that his calm, levelheaded bearing will assure voters in a time of war.

As the chaotic GOP race enters this final sprint to the first primaries and caucuses, Thompson is counting on a majority of the party’s voters to make their final choice late enough to allow him plenty of time to make his pitch. And, of course, he plans to be a bit more appealing than the dentist he joked about avoiding.