The First National Primary

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It is already being called Tsunami Tuesday. But what now looms for Feb. 5 is such a widespread collection of states holding presidential nominating contests that it could turn out to be the forerunner of a national primary system.

Arizona just joined the fluctuating list of 20 or so states planning votes on the first Tuesday in February. Big states such as California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York are on board. Every region of the country will be represented. Since primaries began, never have so many delegates been at stake on a single day.

The betting is that this will benefit the leaders in national polls — currently Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democrats and Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans — because lesser-known rivals will not have the time or money to effectively compete.

The other scenario is that someone breaks out from behind in the early-voting states and overtakes the leaders on Feb. 5. But don’t bet on it.

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