Craig Crawford's Trail Mix

There goes another “metric” for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Her yearlong lead in declared superdelegates vanished with the latest wave of endorsements for Barack Obama.

Clinton’s best hope now is to somehow take heart in knowing that the nation is not on the metric system, even though adding up the campaign “metrics” is the hottest new buzz word in politics. She is now behind in number of states won, popular vote, elected delegates -- and she lost the pundit vote months and months ago.

Indeed, Clinton must pivot away from any numerical evaluation of the race. No more new math. Instead, why not shift from mathematics to metaphysics? Perhaps a bit of abstract thinking will yield results.

Or she could just hang on for the only "metric" that really counts -- the roll call of the delegates at the Democratic National Convention in August.

Craig on MSNBC “Morning Joe”
Monday (5/12) 6:30 AM EST

 

West Virginia might not matter to Barack Obama’s tightening grip on the Democratic nomination, but no one has been elected president without the Mountain State since Woodrow Wilson's narrow reelection in 1916. Obama’s snub of the state for Tuesday’s primary could endanger his party's hopes for West Virginia in November, unless his message of winning the general election by breaking from the past includes breaking the state’s near 100-year record of backing the White House winner.

• Why Obama Is 'Skipping' West Virginia (Newsweek)
• West Virginia Could Spell Trouble for Obama (Los Angeles Times)
• Mountain State's an uphill climb for Obama (USA Today)
• Clinton Leads by Almost 3-to-1 in WV (Poll Tracker)

If Hillary Rodham Clinton is unable to persuade undeclared superdelegates to her side, will she try to frighten them into submission? Evidence is mounting that Clinton is at least toying with the so-called nuclear option against Barack Obama.

Clinton herself is more forcefully disparaging Obama’s chances to win in November, asserting that his support "among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again." Her friend and unofficial adviser Paul Begala went further, bluntly charging that Obama’s coalition of "eggheads and African-Americans" spells defeat for Democrats.

Is such talk the product of fatigue and disappointment, or is there a strategy at work? If it is a strategy, Clinton will have to go all out to make it work. If not a strategy, she should quickly back off to higher ground.

Going nuclear against Obama cannot be done halfway. It would yield the worst of both worlds for Clinton. Subtle insinuations will still backfire against her, but without scorching the earth under Obama’s feet.

Only a direct and convincing assault of overwhelming force against Obama’s electability offers Clinton any hope for grabbing the nomination at the last minute.

• Clinton Makes Case for Wide Appeal (USA Today)
• Clinton Touts White Support (New York Times)

Produced by CQ's Andrew Satter

Better the No. 2 Spot...or Going Back to the Hill?
(Jonathan Allen, CQ Politics)

Here are your pairings for Round Two of
VP Madness (GOP Edition):

• Rice vs. Huckabee
• Sanford vs. Romney
• Pawlenty vs. Powell
• Ridge vs. Hutchison
• Palin vs. Brownback
• Steele vs. Jindal
• Portman vs. Lieberman
• Thune vs. Crist

Voting is open until May 12 (Round Three begins May 13).
Dem version coming once a party nominee is set.

Watch Craig’s Video Tour of VP Madness.

Craig on "Decision '08"
MSNBC Today (5/8)
9:05 / 10:00 / 10:45 AM EST

Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)
WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club

If Democratic superdelegates truly want Hillary Rodham Clinton to quit the nomination race, why don’t they just publicly endorse Barack Obama and get it over with? There are more than enough of them to make up the difference needed to give him the winning majority.

Until she officially loses, Clinton has no reason to drop out. And if this fight goes all the way to the convention floor because Obama doesn't have the required number of votes on record to formally claim the nomination, the blame falls on wimpy superdelegates -- not her.

Ever since losing the Ohio Primary two months ago, the Obama campaign has been fanning the vapors that a victory-clinching mass of superdelegates are waiting in the wings to endorse him. Now would seem to be the time to prove it -- before Clinton wins lopsided majorities in upcoming states like West Virginia next week and again revs up her momentum.

If the argument to Clinton is that she must leave the race for the good of the party, then the same case can be made to superdelegates who hold the power to force her out by giving Obama the victory right now.

Craig on "Verdict with Dan Abrams"
Tonight (5/7) MSNBC 9:00 PM EST

... and on MSNBC "Decision '08"
Thursday (5/8) 9:00-11:00 AM EST

Edited by CQ's Andrew Satter

Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)
WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club

While the nail biter in Indiana stole the show on Tuesday night, it was Barack Obama’s massive lead in North Carolina’s popular vote that shapes the next stage of the Democratic nomination race.

Obama’s net gain of more than 200,000 votes in North Carolina almost exactly matches Hillary Rodham Clinton’s net gain last month in Pennsylvania. This matters because it now seems all but impossible for Clinton to eventually claim a lead in overall national popular vote without counting Florida and Michigan.

Clinton had hoped that at the end of the primaries early next month she would be able to counter Obama’s insurmountable lead in elected delegates by arguing to party superdelegates that the will of the voters was on her side because she won the nationwide popular vote.

Obama’s North Carolina blowout means that even if Clinton wins big in upcoming states her popular-vote claim will depend on counting her victories in Florida and Michigan -- a dicey prospect, at best, given the party’s fractious wrangling over whether to seat the contested delegates from those states.

While we wait for the voters to vote today in Indiana and North Carolina, don’t forget to cast your vote in today’s final tabulation of the first round of VP Madness, GOP Edition.

Current leaders in first-round pairings: Rice, Huckabee, Sanford, Romney, Pawlenty, Powell, Ridge, Hutchison, Palin, Brownback, Steele, Jindal, Portman, Lieberman, Thune and Crist.

Round two begins tomorrow. Craig’s video tour of VP Madness.

Craig Joins C-SPAN Primary Coverage
Tonight (Tuesday, 5/6) 7:00-9:00 PM EST

Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)
WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club

As voters line up today in Indiana and North Carolina will they be in a mood for cutting gas taxes, wiping out the OPEC oil cartel and obliterating Iran? If so, Hillary Rodham Clinton should have a good day.

Whether or not you agree with Clinton, the Democratic presidential contender certainly has set the table for today’s primary voters. In the final days of campaigning, party rival Barack Obama has spent much of his time reacting to Clinton’s flurry of proposals.

Watching the two Democrats these past days has been a study in contrasts. Clinton, while behind in the overall race for delegates, comes across as having the most fun. It might be too late, but she seems to have finally figured out how to run an effective campaign.

Also on Trail Mix: Clinton Still Needs a Game Changer (5/1)

Craig Joins C-SPAN Primary Coverage
Tonight (Tuesday, 5/6) 7:00-9:00 PM EST

Craig to Speak and Sign Books in Orlando
WHEN: Friday, May 9 at 6:00 PM EST (Free to the Public)
WHERE: Orange County Library, Southwest Branch
7255 Della Dr. Orlando, FL 32819 / (407) 835-7323
Sponsored by the Dr. Phillips Rotary Club