The Trail Less Traveled

Arizona Sen. John McCain , the presumed Republican nominee, is likely to win a landslide here in November — George W. Bush beat John Kerry by a nearly 2-to-1 margin in 2004. But as far as the Democratic primary goes, this county is shaping up as a battleground in the April 22 vote. The last time this much was at stake in Pennsylvania was 1976, when Democrats opposed to the came-from-nowhere candidacy of Jimmy Carter unsuccessfully tried to stop him in the state’s primary.

Democratic registration rolls have swelled by more than 3,000 names, and local party officials, regardless of whom they support, say new energy has been injected into their party by the fact that the race is still competitive.

“There’s a point when, as long as it doesn’t get too nasty here, it’s good for people to see where we are as Democrats,” state Rep. Mike Sturla said in an interview at Illinois Sen. Barack Obama ’s headquarters on Harrisburg Pike.

But as they have in state after state, the intraparty tension between Obama backers and supporters of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is taking hold here as the primary draws nearer, reflecting deeply held beliefs and emotions about the qualities and characteristics that define a president.

“I hate to talk about divisions among Democrats, but it’s happening,” said Pat Coller, a city councilwoman who works as Sturla’s district director.

Coller, 67, says Obama had her at “hello.”

“When I heard Obama for the first time, I just felt he was the right person for our time,” she said, adding that she believes Obama would fare better in the general election. “When the other side says they want to run against Clinton, that tells you something.”

Coller and Sturla say Obama will win the Democratic-controlled city of Lancaster, where about 11 percent of the county’s 500,000 residents live, and could take the whole county.

Sturla cites the success of Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell in his 2002 primary against the more conservative Robert P. Casey Jr, who is now the state’s junior senator. Though Rendell has endorsed Clinton, Sturla draws a primary-season parallel between Obama and Rendell, who won almost 60 percent of the county against Casey.

He said that voters who might otherwise be moderate or conservative Democrats register as Republicans or independents because of the GOP’s dominance in the region, a dynamic that he believes will boost Obama in a primary that is closed to those voters.

“The reality is, if you’re a Democrat in Lancaster County, you’re pretty liberal,” he said.

Not so fast, say Democrats who back Clinton. Three Democrats on the seven-member city council, Tim Roschel, Jose Urdaneta and Council President Louise Williams, are on the first lady’s side, and they are joined by former Council President Julianne Dickson.

Clinton allies contend that the former first lady will win the county as a whole and will be competitive within the city limits. They say her experience, her focus on expanding access to health care over the last 15 years and her breadth of knowledge on policy are among her most attractive features as a candidate.

Urdaneta, a Latino who is running for the state Senate, said he came of age politically during Bill Clinton’s presidency and those memories help shape his view of the primary.

“I have a very strong and positive view of the Clintons as leaders, and of Hillary,” he said.

They also criticized Obama for his relationship with his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, whose sermons bashed the United States, whites and Clinton. In a speech on race earlier this month, Obama attempted to distance himself from Wright’s words but refused to “disown” the man he credits with bringing him to Christianity. He has said he was not in church during the sermons that have been broadcast in recent weeks by news outlets but acknowledged in his speech that he had been present for other remarks that he characterized as potentially controversial.

Clinton’s advocates in Lancaster said Obama has not done enough to explain why he would continue to attend the church without taking Wright to task for leading his flock with sermons that are offensive to many Americans.

Urdaneta said he once left a service at the local Methodist church when his pastor delivered a sermon that Urdaneta thought was hostile to gay people. And Williams said she left a congregation because she was uncomfortable with the pastor.

As appears to be the case among Democrats in many places in the country, views on Wright’s remarks and Obama’s ability to address them sufficiently through his subsequent speech on race break down largely along the lines that already divide Obama and Clinton supporters.

In less than four weeks the rival camps could have roughly even numbers, according to the resident political expert.

G. Terry Madonna, who runs the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, said that while Clinton appears to have an advantage in the region right now, Obama could end up winning countywide for the same reason Sturla cited.

“It wouldn’t shock me. I wouldn’t wake up and go surprise, surprise,” he said. “Democratic activists in Lancaster County are pretty liberal, even those who live out in the countryside.”

If Obama does win the nomination, he will still have his work cut out in convincing even some longtime Democrats to back him in the general election.

“I cannot say I will support whoever the candidate is,” Dickson said. “He would have to show me some real depth.”

Dickson is not alone.

A Gallup Poll released Wednesday found that 28 percent of Clinton supporters say they would back McCain if Obama is the nominee. The same survey found that 19 percent of Obama backers would choose McCain over Clinton. Those numbers could change significantly, however, between now and the November election no matter which candidate Democrats put forward.

Sturla, who is running to be an Obama delegate to the Democratic National Convention in August, said he will give his support to the party’s nominee. At one point, before the primary season got under way, he thought he might cast his lot with Clinton in the primary. He said he told his daughter, Cate, that he would probably back Clinton because she was likely to win the nomination.

“Where’s your heart?’” asked Cate, who will turn 18 just before the primary.

“It’s with Obama,” he replied.

He says he is pleased to see his daughter’s generation paying attention to politics and credits that interest to Obama.

“She had a lot to do with my support,” he said.