The Trail Less Traveled

The mayor and a local pastor warmed up the crowd by leading close-to-tonal refrains of God Bless America, the national anthem, the Battle Hymn of the Republic and, yes, Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the U.S.A.,” the latter of which is a staple of “red state” political gatherings and was a theme song of Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election campaign.

But most folks in southwestern Pennsylvania, and certainly in this old industrial town 20 miles south of Pittsburgh, are Democrats.

It is Clinton country, and the buttons say “Hillary.” Voters came to hear former President Bill Clinton coo about New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s credentials six weeks before they cast votes in the Democratic presidential primary. He trounced George H.W. Bush in this town 2,708 to 663 in 1992 and beat Bob Dole by a narrower, 2,233 to 917, tally in 1996.

They love him — and her.

“They’ll vote for Hillary just to get Bill,” said Terry Hazlett, the town manager.

Or is it the other way around?

“She’s more knowledgeable than Bill is in a lot of ways,” said Anna Coen, who perched in the front row with a copy of Bill Clinton’s autobiography, My Life, ready to be signed.

Canonsburg could easily represent Hillary Clinton’s strongest argument to Democratic superdelegates as they weigh whether to send her or Barack Obama to face Republican John McCain in the general election. Many of the white, working-class “Reagan Democrats” who dominate the politics of southwestern Pennsylvania say they plan to vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. Defections from the party among those swing voters in a large, politically competitive state could be fatal in the general election. Some Democrats here openly question Obama’s patriotism.

Obama’s most forceful claims to the nomination are his leads: he counts a triple-digit advantage among pledged delegates and holds a narrow popular-vote edge, tallied by realclearpolitics.com at more than 700,000 of the nearly 26 million ballots cast not counting unsanctioned contests in Florida and Michigan.

Nationally, the two Democratic rivals fare roughly the same against McCain in recent polling. A Gallup Poll of registered voters that concluded Tuesday showed Obama leading McCain 46 percent to 44 percent and had Clinton ahead of McCain 47 percent to 45 percent. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll produced similar results.

The popular vote and the polls could change before the Democratic convention in November, but it appears to be all but impossible for Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates given the party’s preference for nominating contests that award delegates based on formulas that make it difficult to build or close a lead.

With neither candidate positioned to win the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination after all 50 states have voted, the balance of power is in the hands of the 794 superdelegates, who are not pledged to support any candidate at the convention.

Clinton invited a cross-section of Democratic congressional superdelegates to her Washington, D.C. home Wednesday night for a reception. Reps. Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania, Lincoln Davis of Tennessee, Susan A. Davis of California and Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona were among the uncommitted superdelegates who attended the reception.

And both candidates had an opportunity to work their undeclared colleagues during a marathon of budget votes on the Senate floor Thursday.

The battle for superdelegates is fierce and often features competing arguments about who will fare best in the general election.

Obama’s supporters note his victories over Clinton in the swing state of Missouri and a series of heavily Republican states as evidence that he could expand the Democratic base of electoral votes. Rep. Robert C. Scott, D-Va., who has endorsed Obama, said the Illinois senator could become the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Clinton, he said, would not fare as well.

“I don’t know anybody who that seriously thinks Clinton can carry Virginia,” he said.

Many Democratic Party officials also believe he will help their candidates for offices lower on the ballot by boosting turnout among African Americans and young voters. Clinton, they contend, could unintentionally drive up turnout among Republicans who are anxious to prevent her from winning the White House and depress turnout among the new voters Obama has brought to the party.

Clinton supporters note that she has won most of the biggest electoral college prizes on the map so far.

“I think it’s more important to look at electability and electoral votes,” said Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher, a California Democrat who backs Clinton.

The factors weighing on the elite set of superdelegates include their view of who matches up best against McCain, who voters prefer for the nomination, who would they be able to influence in the Oval Office, who helps or hurts them in their own re-election bids and who is best for the party’s long-term political prospects.

“All of that has to be considered,” said Rep. Tim Holden, a Pennsylvania Democrat who has not made an endorsement.

In Canonsburg, as is the case in much of Pennsylvania, Clinton has a long head start. Not only was her husband popular here as president, but Obama may have a daunting task in persuading some longtime Democrats to support him even in a general election.

In a town where many Democrats still back the Iraq War and local officials boast of having the second-biggest Fourth of July celebration in the state — behind Philadelphia — Obama is seen by some voters as insufficiently patriotic because he was photographed in Iowa last year with his hand at his side during the playing of the national anthem. His wife, Michelle Obama caused a stir when she said in stump speeches in February that she was proud of her country for the first time “...not just because Barack has done well, but because people are hungry for change.”

When it comes to red, white and blue, there’s no gray area in Canonsburg.

“What I don’t like about him the most: He will not salute the flag,” said Joan Oshanka, 77.

“I don’t like him because he won’t acknowledge our flag,” said Minnie Konovich, who sat with Oshanka. “He just stands there and does nothing.”

It is an uncommon threshold question for a political candidate — whether he or she takes pride in the country — particularly one who is seeking national office.

But it is raised without reservation here.

The sentiments of Canonsburg Democrats echo those of others in the region, according to political analysts, and across the border in faded industrial centers in eastern Ohio where Democrats favor Clinton. Clinton won Ohio by 10 percentage points on March 4, a margin built in rural areas and cities that have been hit hard by the loss of industrial jobs.

Pennsylvania’s economy is better than Ohio’s, but the Democratic voters in the two states are not terribly dissimilar.

“This is a good state for her, even better than Ohio,” said G. Terry Madonna, a longtime Pennsylvania political analyst who heads the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in the south-central part of the state.

Obama could win Pennsylvania if he builds a huge lead in Philadelphia and wins its suburbs and the battlegrounds in the Lehigh Valley and the south central part of the state, Madonna said. It’s an uphill fight, but not impossible.

Clinton needs to win big in southwestern Pennsylvania to help offset Obama’s expected strength in Philadelphia.

“For Hillary to win the state, she’s got to do well there,” he said. “She’s got to win that region and win it overwhelmingly.”

Clinton so far has maintained double-digit leads in most Pennsylvania polls.

Democrats can ill afford to lose swing voters in closely contested states they have won in recent years, particularly Pennsylvania, which carries 21 electoral votes that would be hard to make up elsewhere on the map. Democratic nominee John Kerry won Pennsylvania 51-48 in the 2004 presidential election.

A big Clinton victory in western Pennsylvania, coupled with her success among working-class white voters in Ohio and an earlier win in Arkansas, could persuade some Democratic superdelegates that she would fare better than Obama in the national battle over the electoral college.

Others will certainly view Obama as a stronger general election candidate because of his ability to increase turnout among African Americans and appeal to some political independents.

“I think any Democrat wins,” said Rep. John P. Murtha, an undeclared Pennsylvania Democrat who is likely to influence the votes of other superdelegates when he makes his commitment.

Like the party’s ground-level voters, the elected leaders and party officials who collectively are poised, as superdelegates, to choose the Democratic nominee are basing their individual decisions on a variety of factors, and Murtha is offering few hints about who or when he will pick a candidate.

“We’ll see,” he said.

In Louisville, Ky., six hundred miles down the Ohio River from Pittsburgh, freshman Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth sees political protection in an anticipated increase in the number of African American voters if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

Yarmuth topped veteran Republican Rep. Anne Northup by 5,921 out of the 241,965 votes cast in a 2006 3rd District race that included two minor candidates. But that was an midterm election with low voter turnout. In 2004, there were 328,139 ballots cast. Northup won re-election that year with 60 percent of the vote, despite President George W. Bush’s 51 percent to 49 percent loss in the district.

Yarmuth is facing a rematch with Northup this year, and he thinks a ticket headed by Obama will help his fortunes. He endorsed the Illinois senator in January.

“In my district, there’s no question Barack would be better,” Yarmuth told CQ Politics in an interview in the Capitol this week. He said African Americans made up about 10 percent of the electorate there in 2006. If Obama is the nominee, he said, “My guess is it will be three-to-five percent higher.”

It’s not just in Kentucky where Democrats in marginal districts will have to weigh who helps or hurts them most.

There are four first-term Indiana Democrats, none of whom has endorsed Obama. Andre Carson, Baron P. Hill, Joe Donnelly and Brad Ellsworth have not tipped their hands.