"Indeed, Pakistan's intelligence service has waged a proxy war against India using terrorists for decades. The two nuclear powers have avoided a large-scale exchange, but the Pakistani ISI has repeatedly sponsored or aided terrorist groups targeting civilians in India. For example, Indian authorities were quite vocal in blaming Pakistan for the July 11, 2006 train bombings, which killed more than 200."

Victor Comras, a longtime State Department diplomat and trade expert, argues that plunging oil prices and chaos in the international finance system could force Iran back to the bargaining table over its nuclear program.

Economic sanctions have also begun to show results, Comras said, as reports surfaced that the Bush administration was forcing Israel to stand down from plans to attack the Islamic republic.

"Iran's economy is already in shambles," Comras wrote for the widely read Counterterrorism Blog Tuesday.

"The downturn in the price of oil has left Iran's government with serious budget shortfalls and significantly reduced its ability to support and subsidize its extensive ongoing energy sector and other infrastructure projects," he said.

"It has also significantly reduced the profit incentives that previously enticed foreign businesses and banks to compete for Iran's business, even when that meant irritating their American relationships.

"Iran's cost of doing business is soaring, and the stepped up measures adopted by the U.S. Treasury Department, and the US campaign to dissuade financial dealings with Iran, are now actually having a significant impact! More and more Western banks are reducing their Iran exposure and pulling out of the Iran marketplace. Even non Western banks in Dubai are beginning to view triangular transactions with Iran more cautiously. These factors may serve to enhance the chances of engaging Iran in a more constructive dialogue on its nuclear program than previously."

Read the rest here.

It's not every day that a traitor writes a memoir.  

Kim Philby, the notorious Soviet agent in the senior ranks of the British secret service, did. But that was from the safety of his Moscow apartment. 

John Walker ranks himself above Philby, not to mention American turncoats Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanssen and Jonathan Pollard, in a new memoir, "My Life as a Spy."

And he may be right. A chief warrant officer in the Navy, in 1968 Walker began selling the Russians communications codes that allowed Moscow to track U.S. warships, including nuclear submarines. Eventually, he dragged his wife, brother, son and best friend into the scheme.

Walker was arrested in 1985, the so-called "Year of the Spy," and is serving a life sentence at the U.S. Medical Center for Federal Prisoners, in Springfield, Mo.

Why did he do it?

"I cannot classify myself as a visionary or idealist, but just a simple citizen who became angry by the government lies," he writes.

"I did conclude that the US system of government was broken, so I felt justified in breaking some rules in order to help save it.... Why did I feel responsible or qualified to end the pattern of perpetual war? I cannot answer my own questions. But then, my insane stunt seemed to have worked. By the admission of both the US and the USSR, I provided the most extensive intelligence ever to the Soviets.

"With my material in hand, the Soviet government eventually realized the US planned no attack upon them, so my actions have contributed greatly to the Soviet Union's decision to end the Cold War."   

Or so he says.

I figured my friend Pete Earley would be in a good position to evaluate Walker's claims. A former reporter at The Washington Post, Earley is the author of "Family of Spies: Inside the John Walker Spy Ring,"  the definitive work on the case, which became a New York Times bestseller and much-watched TV miniseries.

Here's what he had to say.
 

"If nothing else, John Walker Jr. is consistent.

"More than 20 years ago when I interviewed him, he argued that Time magazine and other U.S. media regularly revealed top secrets and damaged our nation's security, so why should he be blamed for damage he did by selling the KGB classified information for nearly eighteen years?

"After making the same tired excuse of, "We were not at war with the Soviet Union" and the "Cold War is a game played by politicians and generals," Walker explains that he simply decided to cash in and do what anyone with any sense was doing.

"He takes delight in bragging how "K-Mart had better security than the U.S. Navy," and proudly describes how his policy of K.I.S.S. - Keep It Simple Stupid - enabled him to steal the keylists and schematics for every major code machine used by the U.S. military and deliver them to our enemies during the height of the Cold War.

"Just as he did in his jail house interviews with me, he blames his alcoholic and emotionally distraught wife, Barbara, for driving him into the KGB arms, and claims that he was simply trying to help out his hapless brother, Arthur, his hollow best friend, Jerry Whitworth, and his own dim-witted son, Michael, by drawing them into what became our nation's most damaging spy ring.

"In a mean-spirited final chapter, he claims his brother Arthur would have gone free if he had not cowed to his wife and had insisted that they sell their house to pay for a better defense team, concluding that Arthur has only himself to blame.

"The only new revelations in this autobiography are a sympathetic portrait that he attempts to draw of himself by claiming his life would have been markedly different - though nevertheless just as exciting - if he had married better.

"He also drops names, such as the great Soviet Cold Warrior, Gen. Boris Solomatin, and former KGB great and Soviet leader, Yuri Andropov.

"Walker makes it sound as if they sought him out personally for advice when, in fact, during our interviews, he chuckled when I asked him if he knew any of his KGB handlers, explaining that he had no idea who they were and stating that one didn't ask for resumes when committing treason. At the time, he had no idea who Andropov was and, in his own words, he explained that he did not see himself as an intelligence source, but simply as a thief. 

"'Look, I don't know why people make such a big deal of me committing espionage,'" he told me. "'If I had worked in a bank, I would have stolen money. If I had access to drugs, I would have sold them.'"

Earley says Walker thinks he did us a favor.

"In what has to be the most revealing rationalization of all, Walker explains that his treachery actually did the U.S. a huge favor. By sharing vital military secrets with the KGB, Walker argues that the Kremlin realized just how badly it was losing the arms race and how pitiful Soviet forces would be if challenged by the U.S. It was one of the key reasons, he insists, the Cold War ended."

"My Life as a Spy" was published to little notice on Oct. 28.

"As part of a joint U.S.-Peruvian anti-drug program that began in the mid-1990s, CIA officers helped Peruvian air force pilots identify aircraft suspected of carrying illegal drugs through the country's airspace. The program had succeeded in bringing down numerous suspected planes when, in April 2001, a Peruvian pilot mistakenly shot into a small plane carrying U.S. missionaries. Two of the Americans on board, Veronica 'Roni' Bowers and her infant daughter, Charity, were struck by bullets and killed. The pilot, although wounded, managed to land the plane. Bowers's husband and their 6-year-old son were not injured."

"In a time of war with these difficult legal issues, he is going to have many, many tough issues to face. But they couldn't have picked a person better suited or more qualified to address them."

Remember Iran?

Not much has been heard about it lately. The not-so-long-ago urgent issue faded under the blinding media coverage of the campaigns, elections and, of course, the implosion on Wall Street.  The little time devoted to foreign affairs seems to be centered on what to do about Afghanistan.

But John Kiriakou, the former CIA officer last seen wringing his hands over the efficacy of water boarding, says the incoming administration needs to pay prompt attention to "Iran's Latin American Push."

Writing in the Los Angles Times, Kiriakou went beyond the usual singling out of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Bolivia's Evo Morales as Iran's reputed agents in the hemisphere.

Kiriakou sugggested that Paraguay's new president, Fernando Lugo Mendez, is also palling around with terrorists.

"Then there's Paraguay's new president, Fernando Lugo Mendez, who was lauded in the Iranian media as 'an enemy of the Great Satan' after naming Hezbollah sympathizer and fundraiser Alejandro Hamed Franco as the country's new foreign minister. Hezbollah -- which is Iranian funded and supported -- already has a well-documented presence in Paraguay, and the U.S. State Department has banned the minister from entering the United States or from flying on a U.S. airline."

But former Washington Post and NPR editor John Dinges, who has written three books on Latin America, says Kiriakou, who served as a CIA interrogator in Pakistan, is off the mark.

"The president of Paraguay is a former Catholic bishop and hardly an extreme leftist," says Dinges, now a tenured journalism professor at Columbia University.

"He is applauded all over Latin America as doing for Paraguay what Vicente Fox did for Mexico: break more than a half century of one-party rule in Paraguay.

"I'm not familiar with his foreign minister pick. But have we entered a world in which a country's foreign minister can be branded a Hezbollah sympathizer and on that basis banned from international travel?"

Dinges also said Kiriakou needs to crank back his telescope to get a wider context on Iranian moves in Latin America.

"What is going on is competition for trade and influence in Latin America. Tehran, just as China and others, are taking advantage of the U.S. inattention over the past decade to fill the role of counterweight to the United States that used to be played by the Soviet Union. Countries like Venezuela and Bolivia want alternatives to trade and investment, and Iran is eager to break out of the U.S. quarantine."

 
But Kiriakou, who served as a CIA counter-terrorism official from 1998 through 2004. says the focus needs to remain tightly on Tehran.

"The real danger here doesn't have to do with an arcane diplomatic battle over who has more friends in Latin America," he wrote in the Los Angles Times.

"The problem is visa-free Iranian travel and the potential creation of a terrorist base of operations in the United States' backyard. If anyone with an Iranian passport may enter Bolivia without a visa or any further documentation, the country will soon be open to covert officers of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security, its Islamic Revolutionary Guard, which the State Department recently declared a terrorist organization, and the Quds Force, an Iranian military group whose mandate is to spread Islamic revolution around the world."

But here again,  Dinges says Kiriakou needs to take a deep breath.

 "This is a lot of huffing and puffing from a [former] counterterrorism official, in which otherwise benign international activities are portrayed as tantamount to preparations for terrorist acts," he said by e-mail.

"But if you look at the actual activities Iran is engaged in in these countries, it is a stretch to see them as anything but normal diplomatic and economic relations.

"It is an enormous stretch to say that a gas factory in Bolivia together with loosening visa restrictions is setting the stage for Hezbollah terrorism directed from Latin America," he said.

And so it goes. 

At some point in the new administration, I suppose Washington will start paying attention to Latin America again. I suspect President Obama and his national security team will look at the region as a piece of the puzzle they face in the Middle East. 

The Great Mentioner is busy, busy, busy these days, feeding the media frenzy for names of people "under consideration," as they say, for top positions in the Obama administration - including the spy agencies.

The Wall Street Journal's estimable Siobhan Gorman weighed in Tuesday with her own interesting mentionables to lead the CIA and the National Intelligence Directorate, making the point that none of them could be accused of palling around with terrorists.

Bill Ayers, in other words, is not on the list.

"Most of those being discussed as candidates for director of national intelligence and director of the CIA have staked out a middle ground between safeguarding civil liberties and aggressively pursuing nontraditional adversaries,"  wrote Gorman, singling out former CIA official John Brennan as a leading candidate to return to the spy agency as its boss.

"Mr. Brennan is a leading contender for one of the two jobs, say some advisers. He declined to comment on personnel matters. Gen. James L. Jones, a former North Atlantic Treaty Organization commander; Thomas Fingar, the chief of analysis for the [national] intelligence director; Joan A. Dempsey, who served in top intelligence and Pentagon posts; former Rep. Tim Roemer of Indiana, who served on the 9/11 Commission; and [California Democratic Rep. Jane] Harman have also been mentioned. Ms. Harman has also been cited as a potential secretary of homeland security."

Liberals would swoon over Fingar, I suspect. As head of State Department intelligence in the first Bush administration, he was the only intelligence official who called it right on Saddam Hussein's nonexistent weapons of mass destruction. And he oversaw the writing of a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program that many credit - or blame - for blunting what seemed like an imminent Bush administration attack on Iran.  

None of the others mentioned are likely to upset Obamamaniacs too much, either.

But Brennan shouldn't be a slam dunk, caution some intelligence insiders, who say Brennan's operational dossier is too thin for the post.

Brennan got the Terrorist Threat Analysis Center (now the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) up and running after 9/11, they acknowledge, but he wouldn't have gotten the job if he hadn't been then-CIA Director George Tenet's executive assistant. He has no counterterrorism field experience.

One CIA official who absolutely should be back in Washington running something, say some, is David Cohen, who left Langley after 9/11 to join the NYPD as Deputy Director for Intelligence. 
 
Cohen hates publicity. The NYPD's hiring statement was brief:

"From 1995 to 1997, Cohen directed the CIA's Directorate of Operations, where he oversaw the agency's worldwide operations, managed the CIA's global network of offices and personnel, and maintained agency relationships with foreign intelligence and security services. From 1991 to 1995, Cohen was deputy director of the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence, where he guided the agency's analysis program, which reviewed every political, economic, and military assessment prepared by the CIA for the President and his senior national security advisors. Cohen's career at the CIA was marked by his leadership in combating global terrorism, international organized crime, narcotics trafficking, money laundering, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."

One intelligence insider said Cohen should replace Charlie Allen as chief of Information and Analysis (IA) at the Homeland Security Department.  When Allen came to DHS in  2005, he'd already spent a half century at CIA.

"Cohen has built the best homeland security Intel organization in the country" at the NYPD, this person said,  "much better than DHS/IA and comparable with both the DI and DO [the CIA's directorates of Intelligence and Operations] but at a localized level."

Many would agree.

"During a collection mission on Nov. 15, 2004, Lance Cpl. Swain volunteered to assist with security by manning a vehicle mounted machine gun. As Marines prepared to enter a building, Lance Cpl. Swain identified an insurgent ambush. He immediately opened fire, alerting his fellow Marines and suppressing the ambush but exposing himself to the enemy. Lance Cpl. Swain's heroic actions saved the lives of his fellow Marines, but cost him his own life when he fell mortally wounded."

Pentagon Counterterror Teams Go Deep  

It's interesting to speculate on why the expanded operations of Pentagon counterterror teams surfaced in the New York Times today. But one of them has to be that the noses of CIA and State Department officials remain severely out of joint from an initiative launched right after the  9/11 attacks by President Bush and then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

"Shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, Mr. Bush issued a classified order authorizing the C.I.A. to kill or capture Qaeda militants around the globe," write Times reporters Eric Schmitt and Mark Mazzetti.

"By 2003, American intelligence agencies and the military had developed a much deeper understanding of Al Qaeda's extensive global network, and Mr. Rumsfeld pressed hard to unleash the military's vast firepower against militants outside the combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan."

According to the Times, a 2004 order identified "15 to 20 countries, including Syria, Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and several other Persian Gulf states, where Qaeda militants were believed to be operating or to have sought sanctuary, a senior administration official said."  

Soon enough, American ambassadors, who are supposed to be the top U.S. official in a foreign country, grew increasingly annoyed by Pentagon "cowboys" zipping in and out, congressional committees heard.

But if only because the State Department, and the CIA, couldn't keep DoD out of their sandboxes, they have been supporting the operations, the Times said.

A number of CIA veterans, however, say that the military teams are too often ill equipped for the missions, in terms of language abilities and knowledge of local customs and mores.

And they wonder what will happen when - inevitably, they say - a solider in mufti is caught red-handed in a place like Pakistan or Turkey, where nationalist feelings run high. Show trials - and the threat of executions (not to mention waterboarding) - are not out of the question.

Not that CIA assassins or kidnappers would be treated any better - or  know their way around a foreign country better -- than a veteran Army Special Forces operative, they also concede.

In any event, there's plenty of work to go around to keep everybody busy.

"It is far too easy to criticize CIA," a longtime Special Forces and Delta operative told me last year, "but all their renditions have resulted in far less than 100 detentions.  For an outfit like al Qaeda, which trained tens of thousands in Afghanistan, that doesn't amount to many at all."

Manchurian Candidates, Saudi Style

Tucked into the back of Sunday's New York Times Magazine is a fascinating piece on the Saudi way of dealing with former al Qaeda operatives (some captures, some inherited from Guantanamo).

"Brainwashing lite," the Chinese might call it. Or "re-education," what the North Vietnamese termed the communist dogma they poured into the heads of the southern brethren they defeated in 1975, usually in brutal work camps.

The Saudies have a kinder, gentler way. They board their charges in comfortable seaside dormitories, give them electronic toys and stipends, and talk them out of jihad by challenging their religious rationales for choosing guns and bombs.   

It seems to work, by the students' accounts, anyway.

Writer Katherine Zoepf, who visited the classes, quotes Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton, who says the methods are "consistent with Saudi history, in that you try through nonviolent means to cajole, to bribe, to buy off the opposition."

"When Michael Morell was growing up in Cuyahoga Falls -- hanging out at the city pool, playing baseball, watching the Browns and Indians -- he had no clue he would wind up at the highest level of the world's biggest spy agency," the Akron Beacon Journal reported last August.

But today, National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell tapped Ohio native Morell, the CIA's third-ranking official, to brief President-elect Barack Obama on the U.S. intelligence community's view of global developments and its secret operations.

Morrel joined the agency in 1980, almost as an accident, he told the Akron paper upon his appointment as CIA associate deputy director.

"I had every intention of going to grad school and getting a Ph.D. in economics and teaching," he said. "But a friend of mine suggested, 'Why don't you send a resume to the CIA?'"

"Even on the day he walked into the CIA for his job interview," the paper said, "he had no intention of actually working there. He was a just college kid at the University of Akron cashing in on a free trip to Washington, D.C."

That was 1980.

Morrel ended up on the analysis side of the business, spending most of his career with the Directorate of Intelligence. He was chief of the agency's Asia, Pacific and Latin American division.

He also headed the unit that prepares the President's Daily Brief (PDB). In that role, he briefed President George W. Bush.

He has also been the acting associate deputy director of intelligence for strategic programs and was deputy director for intelligence at the National Counter-Terrorism Center.

DNI McConnell led a team of senior intelligence officials to brief Obama Wednesday morning.

But the CIA sounds like it's not going to take a back seat in forming the president-elect's views.

"We have already prepared a great deal of information about CIA for the Obama team," CIA Director Michael Hayden said in a letter to agency employees.

"The goal today is to review what has been done and to ensure that every part of the Agency is well-placed to contribute in the weeks ahead."

"The rest of him is mostly Arab, which he hides but is disclosed by his non-African Arabic surname and his Arabic first and middle names as a way to triply proclaim his Arabic parentage to people in Kenya.  Only a small part of him is African Black from his Luo grandmother, which he pretends he is exclusively.

"What he isn't, not a genetic drop of, is 'African-American,' the descendant of enslaved Africans brought to America chained in slave ships.  He hasn't a single ancestor who was a slave.  Instead, his Arab ancestors were slave owners.  Slave-trading was the main Arab business in East Africa for centuries until the British ended it.

"Let that sink in:  Obambi is not the descendant of slaves, he is the descendant of slave owners.  Thus he makes the perfect Liberal Messiah."

"We think of places like Argentina and Egypt and Iran, of multitudes brought together by their zeal for a Peron or a Nasser or a Khomeini. In these kinds of societies, the crowd comes forth to affirm its faith in a redeemer: a man who would set the world right."

"Much as I admire Fouad Ajami, he, too, should stick to foreign affairs - in the Middle East!!  What he doesn't understand is that there is absolutely no parallel between an American crowd and the 'Arab street.'  They differ in literally every conceivable respect except numbers! The only thing [equivalent] we have here in America is a large pool of devout racists, some of whom, under sufficient, intemperate incitement, might decide to take this matter into their own hands."

Speaking at his high school alma mater in Greenville, S.C., Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell claimed Sunday that "dozens" of terrorist plots against the U.S. have been thwarted since 9/11.

Privately, many serious analysts of terrorist threats, both in and outside of U.S. spy agencies, question whether the figure is exaggerated -- while at the same time confirming that al Qaeda-associated terrorists continue to pose  a mortal threat to the U.S. homeland.

"As we are today - post 9/11 - just some seven short years ago, we have not suffered a similar attack. That is not because people aren't trying," said McConnell in a speech during his induction into Wade Hampton High School's "Legion of Honor," a roster of distinguished graduates. 

"My community and the community of military, and law enforcement, and intelligence officials around the globe are working every day to prevent another attack on the United States. And we have been successful dozens of times."

Responding to a request for clarification, a spokesperson for McConnell today cited four documents, including a Justice Department report on counterterrorism issued on the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. 

The report listed eight "notable" prosecutions, but suggested other plots had been disrupted by covert counterterrorism operations that did not -- or may not have been intended to -- result in arrests.

"In each of these cases, the Department has faced critical decisions on when to bring criminal charges, given that a decision to prosecute a suspect exposes the government's interest in that person and effectively ends covert intelligence investigation," it said.

Such determinations require the careful balancing of competing interests, including the immediate incapacitation of a suspect and disruption of terrorist activities through prosecution, on the one hand; and the continuation of intelligence collection about the suspect's plans, capabilities, and confederates, on the other; as well as the inherent risk that a suspect could carry out a violent act while investigators and prosecutors attempt to perfect their evidence.

An FBI spokesman declined to comment, beyond referring me to past reports on terrorist plots, including one which cited 24 incidents between 2002 and 2005 that included attacks by animal rights and white supremacist groups

A White House Fact Sheet released in Oct. 2005 named "10 plots" that had been disrupted and five "casings and infiltrations" that were either detected or disrupted.  

Such figures suggest that at least two dozen more plots had to have been thwarted in the past three years to reach McConnell's "dozens"  threshold.

A recently retired senior CIA counterterrorism officer expressed skepticism about McConnell's figure, saying it came down to "word games."

Perhaps a half dozen "serious" terrorist plots against the U.S. homeland had been disrupted by Western intelligence, he said on condition of anonymity, because the information is classified, such as the 2006 London-based plot to sabotage nine commercial airliners en route to the United States. 

But he was skeptical of McConnell's claim that "dozens" of attacks had been thwarted.

"I suppose every time they arrest a guy who had an idea for an attack and put him in jail they can claim they 'stopped an attack'," he said. 

"After all, the FBI arrested some guys and charged them with conspiracy to blow up the Sears Tower, and the closest they ever got to doing anything was driving around the building with a video camera - which the FBI gave them."

But author Ronald Kessler, a longtime intelligence specialist with close contacts in the spy agencies and White House, made the same "dozens" claim as McConnell in a recent book, "The Terrorist Watch: Inside the Desperate Race to Stop the Next Attack." 

Responding to a query Monday, Kessler cited the White House and Justice Department reports and expressed a weariness about questioning "what was a real planned attack."

"If something was not blown up, it was not a real attack," according to critics, Kessler said.

"Many more have been rolled up since then. Beyond that, because the FBI and CIA have rolled up more than 5,000 terrorists worldwide since 9/11, most of the attacks were never hatched in the first place," he said.