SpyTalk

"More to the point: How much does a haven affect the danger of terrorist attacks against U.S. interests, especially the U.S. homeland? The answer to the second question is: not nearly as much as unstated assumptions underlying the current debate seem to suppose."

"When a group has a haven," Pillar went on, "it will use it for such purposes as basic training of recruits. But the operations most important to future terrorist attacks do not need such a home, and few recruits are required for even very deadly terrorism."

"Consider," he added: "The preparations most important to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks took place not in training camps in Afghanistan but, rather, in apartments in Germany, hotel rooms in Spain and flight schools in the United States."

The evolution of global communication infrastructures, such as the Internet, make a wattle-and-daub headquarters even less important today for attacking the United States than it was in 2001, said Pillar, who retired in 2005 after a 28-year career in intelligence. His last CIA position was National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia.

"By utilizing networks, such as the Internet, terrorists' organizations have become more network-like, not beholden to any one headquarters," Pillar wrote.

"A significant jihadist terrorist threat to the United States persists, but that does not mean it will consist of attacks instigated and commanded from a South Asian haven, or that it will require a haven at all. Al-Qaeda's role in that threat is now less one of commander than of ideological lodestar, and for that role a haven is almost meaningless."

In response to a query, Pillar said, "A haven is certainly useful to the group if it has one. It is not critical to its continued existence and influence."

Pillar also said the benefits of liquidating Osama Bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri are debatable as well, a position embraced by a growing number of terrorism experts.

"Eliminating the two of them probably would have little tactical effect in terms of disrupting ongoing or planned terrorist operations," he told me.

"The main effects, if any, concern ideological inspiration and leadership.  And on that dimension, it is not immediately obvious that dead is better than alive.  I believe that, on balance, liquidation would still be in our interests.  But the impact on jihadist terrorism would be nowhere close to what would justify the undoubted public exultation that would follow an announcement that Bin Laden had been killed."

Pillar, who served a year in Vietnam during 1970-71, is now Director of Graduate Studies
at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program.