Update: From the Flames of Georgia, the Missiles of August

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Russia's punishing attack on Georgia has already harvested bitter fruit beyond the Black Sea.

On Thursday U.S. and Polish officials reached agreement to install a battery of American  missiles in Poland, a plan sure to infuriate Russia and escalate tensions with its former  puppet states in Eastern and Central Europe.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the deal includes a "mutual commitment" between the two nations -- outside of the NATO alliance -- to come to each other's assistance in case of danger.

With a wary eye on Russia's lightening attack on Georgia, Tusk said NATO would be too slow to act if it was threatened by Moscow, according to an A.P. report from Warsaw.

"Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later -- it is no good when assistance comes to dead people. Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of -- knock on wood -- any possible conflict," Tusk said.

Russia, meanwhile, has positioned ballistic missile launchers in Georgia, WIRED's Noah Shachtman reported Thursday, based on a transcipt of a little noticed briefing by Deputy National Security Advisor Jim Jeffrey and other Bush administration officials earlier in the week.

"The President was informed immediately on Friday, when we received news of the first two SS-21 Russian missile launchers into Georgian territory," Jeffrey said.

On Capitol Hill, some Republicans think they can use Russian aggression in Georgia to bludgeon the Democrats into supporting the deployment of an American "missile shield" in Eastern Europe, according to a story by CQ's enterprising Josh Rogin:

In September, lawmakers will resume their debate over the missile sites -- this time amid fresh concerns over Russian threats to U.S. allies in eastern Europe. Though the administration has presented the missiles sites as a defense against Iranian attack, missile defense advocates say they now plan to cite the Russian threat as a way to get Democrats to let construction begin...

"Russia's actions represent compelling data that should be convincing to Democrats that we don't want to delay this thing," said Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., a leading missile defense champion.

"This is not just about missile defense; this is about demonstrating to Russia that America is still a nation of resolve . . . and we're not going to let Russian expansionism intimidate everyone."

But some key congressional Democrats aren't budging from their opposition to the plan, Rogin reports.

Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher of California, chair woman of the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, which oversees the missile defense program, denounced Republican efforts to "conflate the ... issue with Russia's provocation in the Caucasus," which were "completely unrelated."

The Bush administration, meanwhile, is also being portrayed as sending Georgia such mixed signals that it might have thought the U.S. would condone its attacks on South Ossetia in response to Russian provocations there. 

Administration officials insist they warned Georgia to keeep its troops in the barracks. But  New York Times reporters Helene Cooper and Thomas Shanker note (as I did yesterday): 

The United States took a series of steps that emboldened Georgia: sending advisers to build up the Georgian military, including an exercise last month with more than 1,000 American troops; pressing hard to bring Georgia into the NATO orbit; championing Georgia's fledgling democracy along Russia's southern border; and loudly proclaiming its support for Georgia's territorial integrity in the battle with Russia over Georgia's separatist enclaves.

One wag called Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice "the new April Glaspie."

The former American diplomat is known for famously telling Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, as he massed troops to invade Kuwait, that Washington had "no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts."

Glaspie's career went up in flames after the incident was reported, but transcripts  of the meeting, declassified in 1998, showed she was on orders from then-Secretary of State James Baker.

Jeff Stein can be reached at jstein@cq.com.

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