"The presidential race is affecting the congressional race enormously, as presidential politics did in 2006, when Maffei came close," said Grant Reeher, political scientist at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs.
Dan Maffei, the democratic candidate, almost beat Rep. James Walsh, R-N.Y., in 2006 during a year when a large number of Republican congressmen lost their seats to Democratic rivals. Walsh was able to retain his seat by defeating Maffei with fewer than 4,000 votes.
This year, Maffei faces Dale Sweetland, the republican candidate, a returning figure to local politics. He served in the Onondaga County legislature for seven terms.
Maffei has a monetary advantage over Sweetland, largely due to a successful fundraising campaign and help from the Democratic National Committee.
According to CQpolitics.com, Maffei has a 4-1 monetary advantage over Sweetland, as of September.
The presidential election is just one of many factors that will shape the outcome of this race. Growing dissatisfaction with the Republican Party, name recognition and campaign funding will also determine the election results, said experts at SU.
A Kiley & Company poll released on October 9 showed Dan Maffei ahead of his opponent Dale Sweetland by 18 points. The poll, paid for and released by the Maffei campaign, showed 49 percent of voters support Maffei compared to 31 percent for Sweetland.
