Once a given, McCain home turf now too close to call

By Jeremy Pennycook and Evan Wyloge - Arizona State University | October 28, 2008 6:00 PM | | Comments (0)

According to the new data, Arizona Senator John McCain's home state has slipped into a statistical dead heat. The latest numbers, which show Sen. McCain with a 46-44 lead, come from Arizona State University along with PBS affiliate, KAET.


(A video from the ASU/KAET poll )

These results, along with data from a number of other state polls, indicate a marked decrease in Sen. McCain's lead, which was at one point estimated at as much as 21 points.

Poll director and long-time political consultant, Dr. Bruce Merrill said that in addition to the closing numbers, he sees a number of intriguing trends in the new data.

Merrill points the the narrow slice of the electorate that might still be swayed during the last days of the campaign as one of the most interesting trends from his poll.

"[Voters] are firmly committed and won't change their mind before Election Day," Merrill said.

94 percent of Obama's supporters, and 93 percent of McCain's supporters say they will not change their mind before the election.

According to Merrill, Obama's broader strategy for winning the traditional swing voter has proven successful in Arizona, and that McCain's nationally secured base is reflected in his home state.

"Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign," Merrill said. "McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals."


Arizona State legislator Ken Cheuvront said he was surprised by numbers that show the gap closing, and that the prospect of a win for Obama in McCain's home state would indicate a much broader loss for the Arizona Senator.

"If McCain loses Arizona, I think it will be the least of his worries," Cheuvront said.

When asked about the new poll data, Arizona McCain campaign officials dismiss the methodology of certain polls, saying that more accurate polling requires criteria not included in the Arizona State poll.

"Bruce's polls make great dinner conversation, but they're not traditionally accurate," said McCain campaign spokesman Doug Cole.

Cole said that the more accurate data come from polls that normalize potential spikes by averaging data across time, which is expensive and less common.

Cole and his staff remain confident that McCain will win Arizona.

"Come election night, John McCain will win Arizona," Cole said Tuesday.

Merrill and his assistant Dr. Tara Blanc stand by their data, but stress that these polls are just a snapshot of the current standing and that the days leading up to the elections may still tip the election one way or another.

"Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen," Merrill said. "Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."

Tags: arizona state university, asu, campaign, election, kaet, mccain, obama, poll, presidential

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