Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska and adds West Virginia. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.
- Michigan: This state is definitely in play. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9 has Obama ahead just beyond the margin of error by 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing neither and 2 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 3 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7 had Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.9 percent. Forty-five percent of voters said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin compared to 30 percent who said that of Obama for choosing Joseph Biden. PPP's Dean Debnam said "there's no doubt that the Palin choice shook up the race" and that the question is whether McCain is just enjoying a convention bounce or is truly making the state competitive. A Detroit News/WXYZ conducted Aug. 18-21 had Obama by 43 percent to 41 percent in a poll. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 49 percent to 36 percent, almost unchanged from what they were last month in this poll, while McCain's favorability rating dropped 6 points to 52 percent. Voters said 42 percent to 33 percent that McCain was the more trustworthy, by 63 percent to 19 percent that he had the right experience, by 45 percent to 33 percent that he would be the stronger leader and 48 percent to 30 percent that he would do a better job protecting American interests. But Obama, as he usually does, fared better on the question of who cared most about "someone like me," on which he bested McCain 42 percent to 31 percent. Voters also said 52 percent to 25 percent that he would do more to bring about needed change and, by 62 percent to 20 percent, that he did a better job of inspiring people. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this state "Leans Democratic."