Recently in Times/CNN/Opinion Research Category

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska and adds West Virginia. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

  • Michigan: This state is definitely in play. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9 has Obama ahead just beyond the margin of error by 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing neither and 2 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 3 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7 had Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.9 percent. Forty-five percent of voters said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin compared to 30 percent who said that of Obama for choosing Joseph Biden. PPP's Dean Debnam said "there's no doubt that the Palin choice shook up the race" and that the question is whether McCain is just enjoying a convention bounce or is truly making the state competitive. A Detroit News/WXYZ conducted Aug. 18-21 had Obama by 43 percent to 41 percent in a poll. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 49 percent to 36 percent, almost unchanged from what they were last month in this poll, while McCain's favorability rating dropped 6 points to 52 percent. Voters said 42 percent to 33 percent that McCain was the more trustworthy, by 63 percent to 19 percent that he had the right experience, by 45 percent to 33 percent that he would be the stronger leader and 48 percent to 30 percent that he would do a better job protecting American interests. But Obama, as he usually does, fared better on the question of who cared most about "someone like me," on which he bested McCain 42 percent to 31 percent. Voters also said 52 percent to 25 percent that he would do more to bring about needed change and, by 62 percent to 20 percent, that he did a better job of inspiring people. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this state "Leans Democratic."

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Florida and Rhode Island (guess who's ahead there?) Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

  • Colorado: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent choosing neither, preferring "other" or having no opinion in a Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 2 percent each and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election." Other recent polls were tighter. McCain was in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Aug. 13-15 has Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 43 percent within the survey's 5 point margin of error. Previously, a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll conducted Aug. 11-13 had McCain leading Obama 44 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 8 percent undecided in. That result was within the poll's 4.38 percent margin of error. The survey found a "massive generational split" with Obama leading McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain leading Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.