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Here are updates from yesterday and today in our match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Arizona: McCain 49, Obama 41. (Northern Arizona University)
  • Arkansas: McCain 54, Obama 44. (Rasmussen)
  • California: Obama 61, McCain 34. (Rasmussen)
  • Colorado: Obama 50, McCain 46. (Rasmussen)
  • Florida: Obama 50, McCain 43. (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg); Obama 49, McCain 44. (Suffolk); Obama 47.2, McCain 46.9. (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
  • Indiana: McCain 50.2, Obama 44. (Zogby)
  • Iowa: Obama 52, McCain 42. (Marist)
  • Louisiana: McCain 50.6, Obama 38.3. (Southeastern Louisiana University)
  • Mississippi: McCain 53, Obama 45. (Rasmussen)
  • Missouri: Obama 48.2, McCain 45.7. (Zogby); Obama 48, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
  • Montana: McCain 48, Obama 44. (NBC/Mason-Dixon)
  • Nevada: Obama 48.2, McCain 44. (Zogby)
  • New Hampshire: Obama 50, McCain 45. (Marist); Obama 55, McCain 39. (WMUR/UNH); Obama 50, McCain 39. (NBC/Mason-Dixon)
  • New Jersey: Obama 53, McCain 38. (Strategic Vision)
  • Nevada: Obama 50, McCain 46. (Rasmussen)
  • North Carolina: Obama 49, McCain 48, Barr 1. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 49.7, McCain 46.4. (Zogby); McCain 49, Obama 48. (Rasmussen); Obama 47, McCain 47. (NBC/Mason-Dixon)
  • Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 40. (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg); Obama 49.7, McCain 45.1 (Zogby); Obama 49, McCain 45. (Rasmussen); Obama 49, McCain 45. (SurveyUSA)
  • Oregon: Obama 57, McCain 38. (SurveyUSA)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 50, McCain 41. (Temple); Obama 53, McCain 46. (Rasmussen)
  • Vermont: Obama 57, McCain 36. (Research 2000)
  • Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44. (Washington Post/ABC News); Obama 52, McCain 43. (SurveyUSA); Obama 52, McCain 44.8. (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
  • Washington State: Obama 55, McCain 34. (University of Washington)
  • Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 41. (Strategic Vision)
  • West Virginia: McCain 50.3, Obama 40.4. (Zogby)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here are the states we're updating today in our round-up of general election match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Minnesota: Obama 50, McCain 44. (SurveyUSA)

  • Missouri: McCain 45, Obama 44. (Suffolk University)

  • New Hampshire: Obama 50, McCain 43. (Research 2000)

  • North Carolina: Obama 51, McCain 44. (Public Policy Polling)

  • Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 42. (Suffolk University)

  • Pennsylvania: Obama 48, McCain 40. (Susquehanna)

  • Virginia: Obama 51, McCain 45. (SurveyUSA); Obama 54, McCain 44. (Rasmussen)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here are the states we're updating today in our round-up of general election match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 43. (Quinnipiac/WSJ/Washington Post); Obama 47, McCain 43. (Suffolk University)
  • Florida: Obama 51, McCain 46. (Fox News/Rasmussen)
  • Michigan: Obama 54, McCain 38. (Quinnipiac/WSJ/Washington Post)
  • Minnesota: Obama 51, McCain 40. (Quinnipiac/WSJ/Washington Post)
  • Missouri: Obama 50, McCain 47. (Fox/Rasmussen); Obama 48, McCain 46. (Public Policy Polling)
  • North Carolina: Obama 49, McCain 46. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 48, McCain 48. (Rasmussen)
  • Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47. (Fox/Rasmussen); Obama 50, McCain 45. (SurveyUSA)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 51, McCain 38 (Muhlenberg); Obama 55, McCain 40. (SurveyUSA)
  • Wisconsin: Obama 54, McCain 37. (Quinnipiac/WSJ/Washington Post)
  • Virginia: Obama 50, McCain 47. (Fox/Rasmussen)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Today we update Pennsylvania, California, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada and Minnesota in our round-up of general election match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama. As with the latest national polls, the movement in these polls and the ones we posted yesterday appears to be mostly towards Obama. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll said McCain was struggling in states that President Bush won in 2004 such as North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina and Virginia in our round-up of state Senate race polls.

To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update Florida ("No Clear Favorite") and Illinois ("Safe Democratic") and Nevada ("No Clear Favorite") in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of state-by-state match-ups between Obama and McCain by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. And, also visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Ohio, which remains highly competitive, and New York, where there is something of a surprise. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

  • Ohio: A Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 10-13 has McCain leading Obama 46 percent to 42 percent with minor party candidates drawing 1 percent and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Voters say they trust McCain over Obama by 49 percent to 41 percent and, asked which of the four candidates on the presidential tickets are "most like you," Sarah Palin wins with 31 percent compared to 22 percent for Obama, 21 percent for McCain and 13 percent for Biden. "McCain is benefiting from Palin identification and empathy as well as a greater sense of Buckeye voter trust," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "However, should the trust firewall in Ohio break down, it could signal the beginning of an electoral blue domino effect there." An Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati, conducted Sept. 5-10, has McCain ahead of Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Poll co-director Eric Rademacher says the race in Ohio "has a long way to go" because as many as 23 percent of voters may still be up for grabs and more Democrats than Republicans say, at the moment, they will cross party lines to vote for the other candidate. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10 has McCain statistically tied with Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in The margin of error is 4.3 percent. That contrasts to a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7 putting McCain ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters trusted McCain more by 54 percent to 41 percent. Forty-two percent "are not at all comfortable" with Obama as President compared to 25 percent saying that of McCain. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Texas and the crucial states of Michigan, Ohio and Colorado - all crucial states. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

  • Texas: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing o"other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and unfavorably by 35 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 49 percent. McCain has the loyalty of 82 percent of Republicans and draws 16 percent of Democratic votes. Obama is backed by 75 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Republicans. McCain leads 51 percent to 35 percent among unaffiliated voters. A a University of Texas-Austin poll conducted July 18-30 had McCain ahead 42 percent to 33 percent among registered voters with Libertarian Bob Barr at just under 5 percent, Ralph Nader at 2 percent and 17 percent undecided.. The margin of error was 3.77 percent. The poll included a "feeling thermometer" for which voters were asked to say whether they felt very warm or cold towards a candidate. McCain rated 53.8 degrees to Obama's 50.3 degrees which rated as "no feeling at all." Two percent of Texans said the country's economy was better off than a year ago and 81 percent said it was worse. A Rasmussen Reports Poll conducted July 30 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and only 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. That's unchanged in this poll from a month ago. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 60 percent to 37 percent while Obama's was 46 percent to 51 percent. McCain led 45 percent to 42 percent among unaffiliated voters. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. The CQ Politics Election Forecast calls Texas "Safe Republican."

Today we update Colorado and Michigan. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

  • Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall leads Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 39 percent to 31 percent with 22 percent undecided in a Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24. The margin of error is 4.6 percent. A Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post conducted Aug. 13-15 had Udall ahead by 10 points. However, the paper did not provide the actual figures for each beyond their favorable-to-unfavorable ratios which were 42 percent to 23 percent for Udall and 27 percent to 25 percent for Schaffer with 39 percent providing no view. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug.13 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall had led by 4 points in last month's Rasmussen poll. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 39 percent while Schaffer's is 48 percent to 38 percent. A Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll released today showed Udall leading 44 percent to 38 percent with Udall holding a 14 point edge among women voters. But thirty-nine percent of voters said they had not yet formed an opinion about Schaffer and 29 percent said the same of Udall. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. PPP's results in this key state paint a rosier picture for the Democrats - both in the Senate race and the John McCain-Barack Obama contest - than did a recent Quinnipiac University poll. PPP notes, thought, it is a slip of 3 points for Udall since its last survey. Udall ties Schaffer among white voters, but has a 16 point lead among Hispanics who made up 15 percent of the sample. The Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had the race tied at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Today we update Florida, Massachusetts and Washington state in our state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

  • Florida: A SurveyUSA poll conducted conducted Aug. 1-3 is the first in a batch of recent polls that has McCain ahead beyond the margin of error. McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Unlike a lot of other states, McCain has a 7 point lead among women. Obama leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who made up 17 percent of the sample, but McCain leads by at least 12 points in all other age groups. McCain leads 57 percent to 38 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 16 percent among blacks (11 percent) and 48 percent to 42 percent among Hispanics (13 percent). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and they split evenly between McCain and Obama. Iraq was named by only 8 percent and Obama led McCain there by 23 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama leading 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. While Floridians seemed split in this poll about which candidate has the better energy policy, they support by 60 percent to 33 percent President Bush's call for more offshore oil drilling, which McCain has also advocated. About one-fifth of Obama voters and 16 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their mind before the election. The differences between the two among men and women was not huge, but McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 39 percent and Obama among black voters 89 percent to 2 percent. Obama's edge among independents has fallen from 10 points to 5 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 22 had Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain led by 7 points last month. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 47 percent and McCain's was 60 percent to 39 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted July 19-21 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, a difference within the 4 point margin of error. McCain had led by 5 last month. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair.