A couple of other recent Senate polls on which we reported showed Democrat Tom Udall way ahead in the race to replace retiring New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici and Democrat Kay Hagan closing in on North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

For an overview of the battle for the Senate, see our wrap-up: More Open Seats Hurt the GOP's Chances.

Since the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3 percent, that puts the candidates in a statistical dead heat. Yesterday's daily tracking poll had at Obama at 50 percent and Clinton at 44.

The survey was conducted May 13-15. During that time, Clinton won the West Virginia primary and John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama.

Gallup notes that the "slight narrowing of the race ... is typical of the way the contest has gone over the past several months, with neither candidate able to maintain a significant lead among national Democratic voters for very long."

There has been a small change in hypothetical match-ups with Republican John McCain. McCain is ahead of Obama, 47-45 percent among registered voters (the two were tied at 45 yesterday). With the margin of error at +/- 2 percent, that also puts them in a statistical tie. But against Clinton, McCain fares signficantly worse: Clinton has a 3 point lead 48 - 45 percent. ]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/democratic-nomination-back-to.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/democratic-nomination-back-to.html Fri, 16 May 2008 17:32:48 -0500 American Research Group poll of likely Democratic voters confirms those earlier surveys.

In Kentucky, Clinton leads Obama 65 to 29 percent. She trumps him in support from men (56 -38 percent) as well as women (72-21) and regardless of age. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters (91-7), who make up 11 percent of this electorate.

In Oregon, Obama's lead is much narrower: 50 to 45 percent. He has more white voter support (51-44) and among those 18 to 49 years old (55-38). But Clinton has more support from women (51-44) and Hispanic voters (50-46). American Research Group says Hispanics are 6 percent of the vote.

The margin of error for each poll is +/- 4 percent and the surveys were conducted May 14-15. ]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/clintons-big-lead-in-kentucky.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/clintons-big-lead-in-kentucky.html Fri, 16 May 2008 13:27:42 -0500

In a SurveyUSA poll of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat either Republican running for the seat, Heather Wilson (61-35 percent) or Steven Pearce (60-36 percent). The margin of error was +/- 2.3 percent.

Wilson and Pearce are in a tight race for the Republican nomination, which is currently held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici. The poll shows them almost tied, with Pearce having the slight edge over Wilson (49-46 percent). The primary is June 3.

The margin of error on the Republican-only poll was +/- 4.8 percent. The poll was conducted May 12-14.

Udall, Wilson and Pearce gave up their House seats to run for the Senate.

]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/new-mexico-senate-race-sunny-s.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/new-mexico-senate-race-sunny-s.html Fri, 16 May 2008 09:26:48 -0500 national daily tracking poll, Democrats chose Barack Obama over Clinton by six percentage points (50-44), a gap that has stayed steady since before the primary.

Clinton does have a slim head-to-head lead over McCain, leading him 48 to 45 percent. Obama is tied with John McCain at 45 percent when voters are asked about that November general election match-up.

The Democratic nomination results are based on data from May 12-14, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points. The general election results are based on data from May 10-14. For results based on this sample of 4,372 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. ]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/west-virginia-win-still-leaves.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/west-virginia-win-still-leaves.html Thu, 15 May 2008 20:31:27 -0500 Here are the latest updates to our state-by-state general election match-ups, all from Rasmussen Reports. All had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

• Iowa: Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent not sure in a survey conducted May 12. McCain edges Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent preferring other and 4 percent not sure. The figures for Obama and McCain haven't shown much movement since February. Fifty-three percent of voters view Obama favorably compared to 51 percent for McCain, but that represents a 7 point drop for the Republican.

• Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 37 percent, while Clinton bests McCain 53 percent to 39 percent in the state where she was First Lady. McCain's margin over Obama is due to 92 percent support among fellow Republicans, 38 percent support from Democrats and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters. Obama's favorability rating here is only 38 percent. McCain's is 57 percent and Clinton's is 60 percent.

• Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 40 percent, compared to the 5 point lead he held in the previous poll. Obama's favorability rating is 57 percent, while McCain's is 49 percent - which, as in Iowa, is a 7 point drop for him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 12 had Obama ahead 54 to 42 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama runs far ahead of McCain on the issues of the economy, environment, health care and Iraq while McCain leads Obama by a wide margin on the issues of terrorism and immigration.

And the stability - and negativity - persist when Americans were asked about the future. Eighty-six percent of respondents thought economic conditions were getting worse, while just 10 percent thought they were getting better.

There were no stark differences among groups, but Gallup does note: "Americans living in high-income households, Republicans, and residents of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain states are a bit more likely to have a positive economic outlook than are others; but even the vast majority of these groups are negative about the economy." As an example: 15 percent of Republicans were upbeat, compared to just 3 percent of Democrats.

The nationwide poll was conducted May 1-13 and the margin of error was +/- 1 percent. ]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/american-mood-on-economy-gloom.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/american-mood-on-economy-gloom.html Thu, 15 May 2008 08:23:03 -0500 Gallup poll gives Barack Obama a slight, statistically insignificant edge over John McCain among independent voters, 44 to 42 percent in a general election matchup. The daily tracking poll, taken May 5-11, has seesawed between the two candidates since March. It has a margin of error of +/- 2 percent.

McCain is significantly more popular than Hillary Rodham Clinton among independents, 46 to 41 percent.

In today's Quinnipiac Poll, Obama fared much better among independents, besting McCain 48 to 37 percent.

Gallup cautions against over-interpreting the impact of independents' preferences: "Independents are usually one of the most closely watched swing voter groups each presidential election. However, contrary to expectations, they are not always decisive, in part because turnout among independents is usually lower than it is among those with a political party affiliation."

The pollsters go on to note that George W. Bush in 2004, Al Gore in 2000, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and John F. Kennedy in 1960 all won the popular vote "despite losing among independents." ]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/independents-prefer-obama-over-mccain---but-not-by-much.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/independents-prefer-obama-over-mccain---but-not-by-much.html Wed, 14 May 2008 14:50:02 -0500 Quinnipiac national poll shows that, if the election were held today, voters would significantly prefer Barack Obama (47-40 percent) or Hillary Rodham Clinton (46-41 percent) over John McCain. The margin of error was +/- 2.4 percent.

The gap was wider for independent voters, thought to be McCain's strength. They picked Obama over McCain, 48-37 percent. But when the matchup was with Clinton, the independents preferred neither, each getting 41 percent.

Democrats overwhelmingly (60-33) favored an Obama-Clinton ticket over any other matchup. At the same time, Democrats continue to want Clinton to stay in the race (63-34).

"Sen. Hillary Clinton's never-say-die campaign still has lots of fans. Just as in delegates, states, money, you-name-it, Obama leads her in national support - but only by a bit," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The telephone survey was conducted May 8-12, after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries and before the West Virginia primary. ]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/clinton-or-obama-ahead-of-mcca.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/clinton-or-obama-ahead-of-mcca.html Wed, 14 May 2008 11:33:47 -0500 Gallup has tracked congressional approval for 34 years, and a national poll released today shows a record-tying low approval rating and close to a record disapproval score. In fact, the 18 percent approval rating for Congress is more than ten percentage points lower than President Bush’s current approval rating of 29 percent (which is only one point higher than his all-time low from April and early May of this year).

Democratic-voter approval had been as high as 44 percent at the start of the Democratically controlled Congress last January and is now down to 16 percent, nearly one-third of that score. Republicans did not lag behind the Democrats too much in approving the new Congress for most of the first year of the 110th, and now give a 20 percent congressional approval rating.

The partisan divide is much more noticable in the presidential support ratings. While a 66 percent presidential approval rating by Republicans is lower than it had been in previous years, it is substantially higher than his score among Democrats — only 7 percent of Democrats approve of the president’s current performance.

The poll is based on interviews with 1,017 adults conducted May 8-11, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

It is clear that Clinton’s supporters want to see her stay in the race, and that Obama’s supporters want Clinton to give up her candidacy. Seventy-five percent of Clinton supporters, but only 39 percent of Obama supporters, want both to continue. And, 60 percent of Obama supporters want the New York senator to drop her bid.

According to today’s poll, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of Clinton’s supporters would like to see Obama choose the New York senator as a running mate, as would 43 percent of Obama’s supporters. More than half of Obama’s supporters polled, though, reject an Obama-Clinton ticket.

For results based on the sample of 537 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Three polls have Obama ahead of Clinton by double-digits. Obama leads Clinton 53 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted May 10-11 by Public Policy Polling. Unlike most other states, the war in Iraq is considered by voters as the top issue with 41 percent saying so, compared to 34 percent who cited the economy. Obama leads Clinton among those who chose Iraq by 63 percent to 31 percent and has a much smaller 48 percent to 44 percent lead over her on the economy. In A surveyUSA poll conducted May 9-11, his lead is 54 percent to 43 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. The SurveyUSA poll still has the economy cited as more important than Iraq, but only by 32 percent to 25 percent. Obama leads among those most concerned with Iraq by 65 percent to 35 percent, and among those who cited the economy by 52 percent to 42 percent. A poll conducted May 8-10 for the Portland Oregonian gave Obama a 55 percent to 35 percent lead.

Kentucky, which also votes next week, is much like West Virginia for Clinton. She leads 60 percent to 32 percent in a poll conducted by SurveyUSA May 9-11

Rasmussen said the biggest surprise was that voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans when it came to national security and fighting terrorism, by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. On government ethics and integrity, cited as a very important issue by 71 percent of voters, 45 percent trust the Democrats compared to 26 percent for the Republicans.

Rasmussen offers one important caveat on reading too much into these findings as far as what they say about the general election, since its polling has also found that John McCain does better than his party, a conclusion that could also be drawn from the Post/ABC News poll.

Obama is favored over Hillary Clinton by Democrats for their party’s nomination by 53 percent to 41 percent, a 2 point gain for Obama over last month’s poll, and that they believe Obama is more electable in November by 62 percent to 26 percent. The margin of error for the Democratic results is 4 percent. Fifty-six percent of Democrats said the length and contentious of the Democratic contest would make no difference for November while 27 percent said it would the party’s chances. Fifteen percent said it would help.

Hagan scored a runaway victory in the state’s May 6 primary for the right to challenge Dole, and PPP says the visibility she built up during that campaign may have helped. Now it remains to be seen if she can raise the $10 million she says she needs to compete with Dole. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as “Republican favored” although we note that Dole is vulnerable, in part because her ties to President Bush. Rasmussen noted that Hagan has tried hard to make that connection by noting that Dole votes with Bush 92 percent of the time.