Quinnipiac University: July 2008 Archives

Quinnipiac University has released its latest swing state polls showing Florida and Ohio as too close to call, and Barack Obama still with a lead in Pennsylvania, but a smaller one than he enjoyed in June. One theme running through the three states were voter concerns about energy costs which are clearly eclipsing foreign issues, including Iraq. Quinnipiac said that voters in all three states by margins of 27 to 30 points favored more offshore drilling, a position which John McCain has advocated and Obama opposes.

Today we update Missouri and New Jersey in our round-up of John McCain-Barack Obama match-ups around the country.

  • Missouri: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In Rasmussen's June 3 poll of the state, before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, the two were running about even. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama's is 50 percent to 48 percent. Twenty-eight percent of voters believe McCain is too old to be President. On the flip-side, voters say Obama is too inexperienced by a 50 percent to 43 percent margin. Asked whether the next President's top goal in Iraq should be too bring the troops home or win the war by the end of his first term, Missourians said getting the troops home by 53 percent to 40 percent. Public Policy Polling also released a survey today, conducted July 2-5, that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992.

Our latest addition to general election match-ups of Barack Obama and John McCain is Rhode Island. No surprises in this state which has voted for the Democratic candidate in 8 of the last 10 presidential elections.

  • Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 31 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for McCain. About two-thirds of voters say that bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq should be the top first-term priority for the next president while 27 percent say it should be winning the war.

Here's our updated round-up of polls on Senate races around the country, with a new poll on the Louisiana re-election by of Democrat Mary Landrieu.

  • Louisiana: Landrieu , seeking a third term, holds a slim 45.8 percent to 40.3 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Southern Media & Opinion Research survey conducted June 26-28. Undecideds are 13.9 percent and the margin of error is 4 percent. Landrieu is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Kennedy is also viewed favorably by 61 percent, unfavorably by 10.5 percent while 28.5 percent did not know or were unfamiliar with him. The closeness of the race has not changed much from late May when Rasmussen Reports survey had Landrieu ahead by only 47 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. Landrieu got a favorable rating from 59 percent of voters compared to 37 percent who held the opposite view but Kennedy's favorables are 57 percent with 31 percent viewing him negatively. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

Our latest addition is Louisiana where, in the last 10 presidential elections, Democrats have won only when fielding southerners Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. In 1968, former Alabama Sen. George Wallace carried the state in his independent run.

  • Louisiana: John McCain is leading Barack Obama 52.2 percent to 35.5 percent with 12.3 percent undecided in a Southern Media & Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-28. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain is viewed favorably by 57.4 percent of voters and unfavorably by 38.3 percent. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 52.5 percent and favorably by 43 percent.

Here's our latest round-up of state polls showing how Barack Obama and John McCain are faring against each other. This one updates New York and Connecticut.

  • Montana: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In April, McCain had led Obama here by 5 points. Both candidates are viewed favorably by voters: Obama by 57 percent and McCain by 58 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Forty eight percent believe Obama has enough experience to sit in the Oval Office and 42 percent do not. Asked whether the top priority for the next President should be to win the war in Iraq or bring the troops home by the end of his first term, Montanans came down 50 percent to 44 percent in favor of bringing the troops home. George Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in each of the last two elections and the last time the Democrats carried the state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat the first George Bush with the help of Ross Perot.

We've pulled together all the recent polls we could find showing how Barack Obama and John McCain are faring against each other in state polls. here's what we found:

  • Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups. Fifty-three percent of voters say Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as a running mate although Democrats are somewhat more receptive, favoring the idea by 51 percent to 42 percent.